Friday, 11 November 2011

CORRECT SCORES TO NIL ELETTER11 NOVEMBER

Looking at these examples as matches I have noted as possible wins to nil for the favourites. The characteristics are as follows
1) short priced favourites.
2) form with the favourites ability to not concede and the underdog losing consistently to nil.

The research here involves looking at the home team's overall performance in Euro Championship matches , and their performances at home.
Look too at the away side's overall performances and performances specifically away from home.

Note in my conclusions I noted that I expected a win to nil. The next thing to try and figure out are the most likely 2 or 3 correct scorelines.






3pm - Albania U21 v Russia U21 - 1.32 away - 9 points plays 3 points after 3 games each in Group 6. Only 2 wins in the last 12 for Albania plays a Russia side with a single loss only in their last 12.
Wed01/04/09UUCScotland U21 5 - 2Albania U21

Sat05/09/09UUCAlbania U21 1 - 0Azerbaijan U21

Wed09/09/09UUCAustria U21 3 - 1Albania U21

Wed14/10/09UUCBelarus U21 4 - 2Albania U21

Fri13/11/09UUCAlbania U21 2 - 2Austria U21

Tue17/11/09UUCAlbania U21 1 - 2Belarus U21

Sat04/09/10UUCAzerbaijan U21 3 - 2Albania U21

Fri02/09/11UUCAlbania U21 0 - 3Poland U21

Tue06/09/11UUCAlbania U21 4 - 3Moldova U21

Tue11/10/11UUCPoland U21 4 - 3Albania U21
The general trend here in Albania matches is for plenty of goals.9 of last 10 matches easily over 2.5 goals. 7 of the matches over 3.5 goals . Half of the matches over 4.5 goals.
Sat28/03/09UUCAlbania U21 0 - 1Scotland U21

Sat05/09/09UUCAlbania U21 1 - 0Azerbaijan U21

Fri13/11/09UUCAlbania U21 2 - 2Austria U21

Tue17/11/09UUCAlbania U21 1 - 2Belarus U21

Fri02/09/11UUCAlbania U21 0 - 3Poland U21

Tue06/09/11UUCAlbania U21 4 - 3Moldova U21
The goals continue to flow at home, the recent 4-3 win over Moldova more convincing than the tight scoreline suggests. Moldova scored a penalty and a 91st minute goal.
A general trend towards conceding 2+ goals and a tendency to be able to score means over 2.5 goals is obvious.
Wed01/04/09UUCRussia U21 4 - 0Andorra U21

Tue09/06/09UUCFaroe Islands U21 1 - 0Russia U21

Sat05/09/09UUCLatvia U21 0 - 4Russia U21

Tue08/09/09UUCAndorra U21 0 - 4Russia U21

Sat10/10/09UUCRussia U21 2 - 0Faroe Islands U21

Wed14/10/09UUCRussia U21 3 - 1Moldova U21

Sat14/11/09UUCMoldova U21 0 - 3Russia U21

Wed11/08/10UUCRussia U21 2 - 1Latvia U21

Fri03/09/10UUCRomania U21 3 - 0Russia U21

Tue07/09/10UUCRussia U21 0 - 0Romania U21

Tue06/09/11UUCPoland U21 0 - 2Russia U21

Fri07/10/11UUCMoldova U21 0 - 6Russia U21

Tue11/10/11UUCRussia U21 2 - 1Portugal U21
Only 2 draws in 37 Euro matches for Russia suggest it is the least likely outcome in this match. A possible win to nil may be on the cards if Russia can keep out Poland and Moldova away from home.
There have been no draws in 19 Euro away matches for Russia.
ue09/06/09UUCFaroe Islands U21 1 - 0Russia U21

Sat05/09/09UUCLatvia U21 0 - 4Russia U21

Tue08/09/09UUCAndorra U21 0 - 4Russia U21

Sat14/11/09UUCMoldova U21 0 - 3Russia U21

Fri03/09/10UUCRomania U21 3 - 0Russia U21

Tue06/09/11UUCPoland U21 0 - 2Russia U21

Fri07/10/11UUCMoldova U21 0 - 6Russia U21
5 clean sheets in last 7 matches away ( albeit 3 against poor teams such as Latvia, Andorra, Moldova) suggest this could be replicated against Albania.





5pm - Slovenia U21 v Lithuania U21 - 1.36 home
Both sides have played 5 matches in group 2, with Slovenia on 10 points and Lithuania on 5 points.
Slovenia have played a game more than Sweden and Finland so when at home in a match they are expected to win, they really ought to win.
Fri03/09/10UUCSlovenia U21 2 - 2Belgium U21

Tue07/09/10UUCUkraine U21 0 - 0Slovenia U21

Fri03/06/11UUCLithuania U21 0 - 1Slovenia U21

Wed10/08/11UUCFinland U21 1 - 0Slovenia U21

Thu01/09/11UUCMalta U21 1 - 4Slovenia U21

Tue06/09/11UUCSlovenia U21 2 - 0Ukraine U21

Thu06/10/11UUCSweden U21 1 - 1Slovenia U21
Only 1 loss since 2010 was away to Finland this year, a marginal 1-0 loss to a penalty. Slovenia only conceded 2 goals in a single match in the first match above. A sign of steadfast defending?
Sat05/09/09UUCSlovenia U21 1 - 3France U21

Wed14/10/09UUCSlovenia U21 0 - 2Ukraine U21

Fri13/11/09UUCSlovenia U21 1 - 0Malta U21

Fri03/09/10UUCSlovenia U21 2 - 2Belgium U21

Tue06/09/11UUCSlovenia U21 2 - 0Ukraine U21
infrequent Euro matches at home temper enthusiasm re any trends. Unbeaten in last 3 matches. 2-2 draw saw Slovenia 2-0 down to Belgium.
Wed11/08/10UUCLithuania U21 0 - 1Portugal U21

Tue07/09/10UUCEngland U21 3 - 0Lithuania U21

Fri03/06/11UUCLithuania U21 0 - 1Slovenia U21

Tue07/06/11UUCLithuania U21 1 - 2Malta U21

Thu01/09/11UUCLithuania U21 0 - 1Sweden U21

Mon05/09/11UUCSweden U21 4 - 0Lithuania U21

Tue11/10/11UUCMalta U21 0 - 2Lithuania U21
Huge swathe of red at soccerway.com indicates a lot of defeats in the Euros.They have lost 6 of their last 7 matches for instance.
Fri04/09/09UUCPortugal U21 4 - 1Lithuania U21

Wed09/09/09UUCMacedonia FYR U21 1 - 1Lithuania U21

Tue13/10/09UUCGreece U21 1 - 0Lithuania U21

Tue07/09/10UUCEngland U21 3 - 0Lithuania U21

Mon05/09/11UUCSweden U21 4 - 0Lithuania U21

Tue11/10/11UUCMalta U21 0 - 2Lithuania U21
13 out of 16 away matches losses. Logic dictates a home win, and with Lithuania failing to score in their last 3, value seekers could look to a win to nil for Slovenia?





6pm - Switzerland U21 v Georgia U21 - 1.18 home
2nd v 3rd in group 5 dominated by Spain who have a friendly v Eng-er-land this weekend. Swiss are only 2 points behind Spain on 7, and Georgia have 3 points and have played 4 matches to the Swiss and Spanish 3 matches.
Advantage Swiss at this early stage.
Sat11/06/11UUCDenmark U21 0 - 1Switzerland U21

Tue14/06/11UUCSwitzerland U21 2 - 0Iceland U21

Sat18/06/11UUCSwitzerland U21 3 - 0Belarus U21

Wed22/06/11UUCSwitzerland U21 E1 - 0Czech Republic U21

Sat25/06/11UUCSwitzerland U21 0 - 2Spain U21

Thu01/09/11UUCEstonia U21 0 - 0Switzerland U21

Mon05/09/11UUCSwitzerland U21 4 - 0Croatia U21

Fri07/10/11UUCGeorgia U21 0 - 1Switzerland U21
Consistent Swiss in the Euros in 2011. Only loss v Spain. 7 clean sheets for the Swiss suggests their strengths are at the back
Tue14/06/11UUCSwitzerland U21 2 - 0Iceland U21

Sat18/06/11UUCSwitzerland U21 3 - 0Belarus U21

Wed22/06/11UUCSwitzerland U21 E1 - 0Czech Republic U21

Sat25/06/11UUCSwitzerland U21 0 - 2Spain U21

Mon05/09/11UUCSwitzerland U21 4 - 0Croatia U21
Only 1 draw in 15 at home.11 wins in those 15 matches.
Wed 03/03/10 UUC Georgia U21 2 - 0 Estonia U21

Sun 30/05/10 UUC Georgia U21 0 - 0 Switzerland U21

Wed 11/08/10 UUC Armenia U21 2 - 3 Georgia U21

Sat 04/09/10 UUC Turkey U21 0 - 1 Georgia U21

Tue 07/09/10 UUC Georgia U21 0 - 2 Armenia U21

Fri 03/06/11 UUC Croatia U21 0 - 1 Georgia U21

Thu 01/09/11 UUC Georgia U21 2 - 7 Spain U21

Mon 05/09/11 UUC Spain U21 2 - 0 Georgia U21

Fri 07/10/11 UUC Georgia U21 0 - 1 Switzerland U21
No draw in last 7 Euro matches for Georgia and 4 losses in last 5 matches. Sole win 0-1 v Croatia away.
Sat05/09/09UUCEstonia U21 2 - 0Georgia U21

Fri09/10/09UUCIreland Rep U21 1 - 1Georgia U21

Wed18/11/09UUCSwitzerland U21 1 - 0Georgia U21

Wed11/08/10UUCArmenia U21 2 - 3Georgia U21

Sat04/09/10UUCTurkey U21 0 - 1Georgia U21

Fri03/06/11UUCCroatia U21 0 - 1Georgia U21

Mon05/09/11UUCSpain U21 2 - 0Georgia U21
Away from home, Georgia win when adopting a smash and grab mentality, as seen with the 2 0-1 wins against reasonable opponents Turkey and Croatia.
With the Swiss ability to keep a clean sheet, this match might be a prolonged 0-0 until a Swiss ( most likely)





745pm - Spain U21 v Estonia U21 - 1.07 home
The odds already suggest a goal laden outcome.
Sun12/06/11UUCSpain U21 1 - 1England U21

Wed15/06/11UUCCzech Republic U21 0 - 2Spain U21

Sun19/06/11UUCUkraine U21 0 - 3Spain U21

Wed22/06/11UUCSpain U21 E3 - 1Belarus U21

Sat25/06/11UUCSwitzerland U21 0 - 2Spain U21

Thu01/09/11UUCGeorgia U21 2 - 7Spain U21

Mon05/09/11UUCSpain U21 2 - 0Georgia U21

Thu06/10/11UUCCroatia U21 0 - 2Spain U21
Only 2 draws recently against England and Belarus. The rest were wins and with clean sheets. 15 wins in last 19 for the Spaniards and it seems the generational strength for footballers from Spain continues down the age group.
Tue02/03/10UUCSpain U21 3 - 1Liechtenstein U21

Thu02/09/10UUCSpain U21 2 - 1Netherlands U21

Sat09/10/10UUCSpain U21 2 - 1Croatia U21

Sun12/06/11UUCSpain U21 1 - 1England U21

Wed22/06/11UUCSpain U21 E3 - 1Belarus U21

Mon05/09/11UUCSpain U21 2 - 0Georgia U21
Equally as impressive at home.
But at home a tendency to concede ( this might help the goals tally this evening, and will ensure a decent Spain price if they concede first)
Wed03/03/10UUCGeorgia U21 2 - 0Estonia U21

Thu20/05/10UUCEstonia U21 2 - 3Armenia U21

Sun23/05/10UUCEstonia U21 1 - 0Turkey U21

Tue10/08/10UUCIreland Rep U21 5 - 0Estonia U21

Thu01/09/11UUCEstonia U21 0 - 0Switzerland U21

Mon10/10/11UUCEstonia U21 0 - 1Croatia U21
Sole win, a 1-0 was at home to turkey. Since then, Estonia have failed to score. If the Irish can get 5 at home, then a professional performance from SPain could replicate that? And we have the possibility of a win to nil which opens up the correct score to nil trade.
10 losses in 15 away for Estonia.
Wed12/08/09UUCSwitzerland U21 0 - 1Estonia U21

Sat14/11/09UUCArmenia U21 1 - 1Estonia U21

Wed18/11/09UUCTurkey U21 0 - 0Estonia U21

Wed03/03/10UUCGeorgia U21 2 - 0Estonia U21

Tue10/08/10UUCIreland Rep U21 5 - 0Estonia U21
Estonia have failed to score in of last 8 matches. When they scored, they drew and won.
They have not conceded more than 5 goals in the Euros so this would be the optimum perhaps for correct score value bettors?

9pm - Portugal U21 v Moldova U21 - 1.08 home
Like Spain, Portugal are expected to win, scoring 3/4 minimum and possibly to nil.
Russia lead Group 6 with 9 points from 3 matches. Poland are 2nd with 7 points from 4 matches. Portugal come 3rd with 4 points after 3 matches. A win could take Portugal 2nd on goal difference, taking advantage of that game in hand over Poland.
So we have a very definitely motivated side who want goals and the win.
Moldova Have lost all 3 matches.

Thu01/09/11UUCMoldova U21 0 - 2Portugal U21

Thu06/10/11UUCPortugal U21 1 - 1Poland U21

Tue11/10/11UUCRussia U21 2 - 1Portugal U21

Only beat Moldova 0-2 so perhaps factor that into the correct score choice?
Fri03/09/10UUCPortugal U21 0 - 1England U21

Tue07/09/10UUCPortugal U21 3 - 1Macedonia FYR U21

Thu06/10/11UUCPortugal U21 1 - 1Poland U21

Not the most impressive of form, but then thay have not met a team as poor as Moldova in those 3 matches.
Wed03/03/10UUCAndorra U21 1 - 3Moldova U21

Wed11/08/10UUCMoldova U21 0 - 1Romania U21

Sat04/09/10UUCMoldova U21 1 - 0Faroe Islands U21

Tue07/09/10UUCLatvia U21 1 - 1Moldova U21

Thu01/09/11UUCMoldova U21 0 - 2Portugal U21

Tue06/09/11UUCAlbania U21 4 - 3Moldova U21

Fri07/10/11UUCMoldova U21 0 - 6Russia U21
2011 matches saw 2 losses without scoring and a 4-3 loss to Albania ( which was not as close as the scoreline suggests - penalty and 91st minute goal for Moldova)
Wed03/03/10UUCAndorra U21 1 - 3Moldova U21

Tue07/09/10UUCLatvia U21 1 - 1Moldova U21

Tue06/09/11UUCAlbania U21 4 - 3Moldova U21
Questionable opposition.
REly on Portugal to get a must win win tonight and look, I hope, at a correct score to nil. Beginning perhaps at 2-0 as that will put the Portugeuse 2nd on goal difference.
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