thursday 1st May

Chelsea put in their place yesterday .  Ludogorets continued their clean sheets against CSKA Sofia with another 1-0 and a possible 0-0 lay 2nd half if you were monitoring that match.

I will be following the Norwegian league this summer and hope to get to know it well. it is only 5 matches in so there are few patterns and stats to get stuck into.

We've gone all scandinavian today. Little to get enthralled about. The Europa League is likely as unreadable as the Champions League Semi finals were. I would instinctually favour Juventus tonight though.


2pm - Sirius v Elfsborg - 1.85 away
Standout stats

• this is a swedish cup match
• I think Sirius are from a lower league than top flight Elfsborg
• Sirius won 2-1 in the sole head to head in the cup last year, so watch out for a potential banana skin for the elves
• Both sides have identical cup form, winning their last 6 cup matches.
• 5 clean sheets for Elfsborg might give them the edge. 
• Sirius have scored and conceded in their last 4 home ( winning) cup matches
• 3 2-1 wins in their last 4 mirrors the head to head from last year
• the last away defeat for Elfsborg in this cup was v Sirius. Since then they have kept 2 clean sheets

Profitable in-play opportunities

• yes folks, the Swedish Cup is my, ahem, achilles heel! Taking a purely statistical perspective, both teams could score today . Sirius are by no means out of it, and psychologically, Elfsborg will not want another 2-1 defeat. Perhaps a 1-2 correct score angle here, which covers either team scoring first and is still alive at 0-2.

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4pm - Levski Sofia v Lokomotiv Plovdiv - 1.36 home
Standout stats

• 3 wins in the last 4 meetings for Sofia
• this is 5th v 7th in the Bulgarian top flight

Levski Sofia

• 7 losses in their last 10 matches and you want me to back you at 1.36? Hmmmm!
• have conceded 2 goals at least in their last 4 matches
• have lost their last 2 home matches 1-2 and 1-3

Plovdiv

• only 2 wins in their last 8 matches
• have lost their last 4 away matches 4-1, 2-1, 2-0 and 3-0

Profitable in-play opportunities

• very limited stats I'm afraid if the leagues are not showcased at www.soccerstats.com. A  match I will leave alone.

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5pm - Molde v Start - 1.45 home
Standout stats

• this is a norwegian top flight match
• 2013 head to heads see a 1-1 draw and a 0-1 Start win.
• this is 2nd v 8th after only 5 matches
• little to evaluate

Molde

• solid start to the season with 4 wins and a loss. Scored 2+ in all wins
• have scored in all matches this season
• no 0-0 at halftime albeit only 5 matches
• have conceded just 1 at home and scored 7

Start

• 2 defeats, 2 wins and a draw
• have scored and conceded in their 3 aways this season, Loss, Draw, Win
• only 1 0-0 at halftime in 5 matches

Profitable in-play opportunities

• very little to go on. You will get a better statistical outlook some 12+ matches into the season
• Molde having a good time, scoring early season. If they win, they will likely score 2. Both teams could score today, albeit based on only 3 away matches for Start

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5pm - Odd v Sarpsborg - 1.67 home
Standout stats

• 0-1 Odd win and 2-2 draw in the 2013 head to heads
• this is 9th v 6th after 5 matches

Odd

• have scored and conceded in 4 of 5 matches
• 2 consecutive 2-1 wins at home. That sequence will end at some point
• have conceded in all 5 matches

Sarpsborg

• only 1 loss this season, a 5-1 v Molde, a team Odd beat at home 2-1
• have scored and conceded in their 2 away matches

Profitable in-play opportunities

• Odd look good at home beating strong teams like Molde and Rosenborg 2-1. A win today should see them getting another 2 goals. They have conceded in all 5 league matches though.
• Sarpsborg have also scored and conceded so both teams might score today

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6pm - FC Brno v Plzen - 1.8 away
Standout stats

• this is a czech cup match
• Plzen are 2-0 up with  2nd and 88th minute goals from the first leg
• So Plzen must avoid a 2-0, 3-0 defeat, and can tolerate a 1-0 defeat and a 0-0
• Brno must win 2-0 to bring the match to parity and then push on for the win
• Plzen have not had a draw in the cup since 2013 and Brno have only had one draw in the same time frame.
• Goal laden away matches for Plzen in the cup, scoring and conceding in 5 of their last 6. Remember circumstance though. No need to win today, just to avoid a 2-0 or higher defeat

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6pm - Sogndal v Rosenborg - 1.81 away
Standout stats

• 14th v 4th after 5 matches in another Norwegian top flight match
• Rosenborg have not conceded in the last 4 head to heads, winning the last 3

Sogndal

• Sogndal conceded 3-1-4-3 in their 4 opening matches and might be punished by an away team who have the edge in head to heads 
• have scored and conceded in their 2 home matches this season
• No 0-0 at halftime yet

Rosenborg

• unbeaten this season albeit 3 score draws is an unwelcome habit.
• 1-1 and 2-2 in their last 2 away matches

Profitable in-play opportunities

• Rosenborg are scoring readily but throwing away points with score draws. Will they really have a 3rd consecutive score draw? This is a pattern we might like to punt on being broken today? So lay any late score draw.
• Sogndal could concede 3 at their worst.
• Sogndal do not tend to score against Rosenborg and if scoring first, will be vulnerable

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805pm - Juventus v Benfica - 1.63 home
Standout stats

• 2-1 to benfica from the first leg and Juventus would settle with that I'm sure.
• They have the away goal so need still to score, ideally first in this fixture to put them at an away goal advantage
• 1-0 therefore is the bare minimum for Juventus in this Europa League Semi-final .
• Benfica would settle for a 0-0 as the absolute bare minimum scoreline for them. An away goal , and scoring first, will make for an interesting fixture . 
• As ever I cannot research this one off event properly

805pm - Valencia v Sevilla  - 2.22 home
Standout stats

• 2-0 for Sevilla from the first leg kept up their excellent end of season goal scoring run.
• Both sides lost their most recent match in the league. Sevilla were poor away at Ath Bilbao while Valencia dominated for large periods in a 0-1 loss v Atl Madrid, whose goal was rather fortunate.
• This marks Valencia as being perhaps a different animal at home.
• Ideals? valencia need a 2-0 immediately to bring the tie to parity.
• Sevilla need a 0-0 or a 1-0 loss to progress. If Sevilla score first, you'd think that should sink the home team.

FRIDAY

11am - Amkar v CSKA Moscow  -1.63 away
Standout stats

• CSKA have won 4 of the last 5 head to heads , and won the last 2
• this is 7th v 3rd and CSKA are bang in the title race, only 4 points behind Zenit

Amkar

• only 1 win in 10 matches 
• have lost their last 3 home matches and have failed to score in 3 of their last 4 matches
• only 3 clean sheets in 14 matches
• have lost to 1st at home, but drew 0-0 with 2nd and beat 4th and 5th. Will this be as easy as the odds suggest for CSKA?
• only 3 home defeats for Amkar all seaosn and 2 of them came in their last 2 home matches
• 5 0-0's at halftime at home
• 3 0-0's at home
• have only conceded 3 goals in the first half at home

CSKA

• 7 consecutive wins, 5 clean sheets in stark contrast with Amkar
• have won their last 3 away matches scoring 3-3-4 and keeping 2 clean sheets
• have failed to score in only 2 of 14 matches
• have not had a 0-0 at halftime in 8 matches
• only 2 wins v top 12 away is a slight concern
• 3 0-0's at halftime away
• have scored first in only 6 of 14 away matches

Profitable in-play opportunities

• based on recent form and head to heads , this is CSKA's for the taking. A strong winning run, scoring bucket loads away and no recent chinks.
• BUT season long, They have won only 2 away v top 12 sides. and Amkar have been interestingly solid v top 5 sides with a loss, draw, and 2 wins.
• Will recent form out? If you think so, then side with CSKA.
• We might see a goal at halftime

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130pm - Volga Nyzhnyi Novgorod v FK Krasnodar - 1.84 away
Standout stats

• Krasnador are unbeaten in 4 head to heads, 3 were wins at home though, one a 1-1 draw at Volga
• this is 15th v 9th. Volga are in dire trouble, 2nd bottom 4 points from 3rd bottom. 

Volga

• only 1 win in 14 matches and 8 defeats in their last 9 matches looks a little terminal.
• after 5 defeats in 6 matches, Volga won their last home match 2-1 v 8th in the league
• only 3 clean sheets all season
• have failed to score in 5 of their last 6 matches
• have lost all home matches v top 7 sides and have lost 12 of 13 matches home and away v top 7 teams
• no draw in 13 home matches
• 5 0-0's at halftime at home
• have conceded a whopping 10 of their 21 conceded home goals in the last 1/4 hour
• have scored first in 7 of 13 home matches

Krasnador

• 3 losses in 4 is not the best form either
• 1 defeat in the last 4 away matches was against  a resurgent Zenit
• have failed to score in only 3 matches all season
• have only lost 1 match away to 8th and lower in the league
• have scored and conceded away v 3rd bottom and bottom and are playing 2nd bottom today
• have scored in their last 4 away and conceded in their last 5 away matches

Profitable in-play opportunities

• 1.84 against a team with 8 defeats in their last 9 matches. It's probably because Krasnador are in poor very recent form. Still the stats point to Krasnador surely not losing against these Volga mugs?
• Krasnador are expected to get a goal at some stage. They have failed to score in only 3 matches all season.
• Volga have had recent problems scoring so we really should statistically favour Krasnador here.

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4pm - Rostov v Dinamo Moscow - 1.94 away
Standout stats

• Rostov 1-0, Moscow 1-0 and a 1-1 in the last 3 head to heads is inconclusive
• this is 8th v 4th. Dinamo are 9 points behind CSKA and 2 points ahead of fellow Moscovites Spartak

Rostov

• no win in 3. 
• have scored and conceded in their last 3 home matches
• no 0-0 at halftime in 7 matches
• have not beaten any top 10 team at home, albeit 5 draws and 2 defeats to 1st and 5th
• failed to score at home to 1st, 3rd and 5th
• 7 0-0's at halftime at home is over 50% of home matches

Dinamo Moscow

• 3 losses in their last 4 matches
• have only won 1 match away to top 11 sides
• 5 0-0's at halftime away

Profitable in-play opportunities

• very unappealing match on a poor day for the in-play coupon.
• I suppose the only real angle is the 0-0 at halftime being a possibility. Under 2.5 goals is a goer based on head to heads 

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530pm - Shakhtar v Illychivets - 1.11 home
Standout stats

• 6 wins and a 1-1 draw for Shakhtar in head to heads 
• have scored a minimum of 2 goals at least in home head to heads
• this is 1st v 9th. 2nd are only 3 points behind Shakhtar which should ensure this 1.11 quote is translated into the expected easy win

Shakhtar

• only 5 defeats all season
• have won 5 of their last 6 matches
• have won their last 3 home matches, and the last 2 were 2-1
• have failed to score in only 3 matches all season
• only dropped points at home ( loss and draw) came against 2nd and 3rd

Illychivets

• only 2 defeats in 9 matches
• have won their last 2 away matches 0-1 and 1-2
• only 7 clean sheets all season
• against top 8 away, they have lost 6 and drawn 1. In all bar 1 of the defeats, they failed to score
• only 25% over 2.5 goals away from home which may be important as they play a 1.11 shot

Profitable in-play opportunities

• AS we know, 1.11 equals 3/4 goals and a possible win to nil. 4 is the maximum Shakhtar have scored at home this season but against Illychivets it's been either 2 or 3 goals. 
• Note too the 25% over 2.5 goals for Illychivets away. This might suggest the value is in under 2.5 goals and it would take a brave soul to back under 2.5 goals for a match involving a 1.11 shot!!
• Shakhtar should score at some stage and there is the possibility for a win to nil.

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730pm - SC Bastia v Lille - 1.92 away
Standout stats

• Lille are unbeaten in 4 head to heads, winning the last 2 matches 2-1
• this is 11th v 3rd
• there are 3 matches remaining this season. Bastia cannot be brought into the relegation battle even if losing those 3 matches but Lille could get 2nd place with 3 wins and Monaco losing their remaining 3 matches ( unlikely).

Bastia

• only 2 wins in 11 matches have come at home.
• scored and conceded in their last 4 matches
• have scored 2 goals in each of their 3 home matches
• only 1 clean sheet in 14 matches
• have not had a 0-0 at halftime in 13 matches
• Bastia have not beaten any of the top 5 home or away this season, losing 8 and drawing 1 of the 9 matches played. They have failed to score against 1st, 2nd and 4th at home
• 5 0-0's at halftime at home is about 29% of home matches
• have scored first in only 9 of 17 home matches

Lille

• unbeaten in 12 matches and hitting an unbeaten streak at the right part of the season
• DWDWD ( D=Draw, W=Win) in their last 5 away matches
• 5 clean sheets in their last 8 matches
• unconvincing away from home with only 3 wins against top 17 teams, 2 of which were 0-1 and were incidentally against teams around Bastia's position in the league.
• undefeated in 5 away matches
• 6 0-0's at halftime away is about 35% of away matches
• have scored 10 of their 11 1st half away goals in the last 1/2 hour of the first half.

Profitable in-play opportunities

• looking at Bastia in isolation it all looked rather straighforward. Lose to top 4 at home.
• But in Lille we have an unconvincing away side. They have won the 3 matches against teams around Bastia in the league, albeit 1-2, 0-1, 0-1.
• Lille are the form side and are playing a Bastia who know they are safe now, with 3 matches remaining.
• As is the case at this part of the season, will the MUST WINS ( to pressure 2nd spot) win?

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8pm - Rayo Vallecano v Ath Bilbao - 2.04 away
Standout stats

• both teams have scored in the last 6 head to heads
• 2-3 and 2-2 at Rayo in the last 2 head to heads makes for a potentially exciting match.
• this is 9th v 4th. With 4 matches remaining Vallecano are as safe as houses and are staying up. Ath Bilbao hold a 6 point cushion in 4th place and can reasonably be caught if they cock up their remaining 3 matches and Sevilla win all of their matches

Rayo Vallecano

• only 1 defeat in 10 was against Real Madrid so putting together a cracking end to the season. 
• 3 wins in their last 4 matches, scoring at least 3 goals
• 5 consecutive home wins now too so despite having nothing to play for, Rayo are acting as if they are playing for something!!
• it still remains though that Rayo have lost all matches home and away v 5th and above this season.
• no draw in 17 home matches
• 5 0-0's at halftime at home is only 29% of matches
• no 0-0 at home
• have scored first in only 8 of 17 home matches

Ath Bilbao

• only 4 defeats in 23 matches, the last 3 defeats were 2-1
• only 1 defeat in 7 away was a 2-1 v Barcelona  when Bilbao actually scored first
• have failed to score in only 5 matches this season 
• have not won away v top 10 this season with draws v 5th, 7th, 8th and 10th
• 5 0-0's at halftime is the same as Rayo
• have scored first in only 6 away matches this season

Profitable in-play opportunities

• a lack of congruency here. 17 without a draw at home for Rayo plays a Bilbao side with draws v 5th, 7th, 8th and 10th away ( Rayo are 9th)
• Both teams are in great form too which makes this a tricky one. If following the "must wins tend to win" argument , then you'd want to side with a Bilbao side seeking to secure 4th spot against a Rayo side safe from relegation and not really going anywhere.
• Rayo have lost all matches home and away v top 5 - is that the clincher in what is a tricky match to read?

For Reference

8pm - Shamrock Rovers v Limerick - 1.37 home
I'll not research Ireland as it has proven to be very unreliable over the years. It is at soccerstats if you want to check inplay



SATURDAY 3rd May


12:15 UK Barnsley   v   QPR 0 - 2.1 away
Standout stats

• this is 23rd v 4th 
• Barnsley must win this match. QPR can tolerate a loss as they will remain 4th but again the ideal for them is to retain 4th spot ( 3rd seems distant).
• QPR won 2-0 the last time these 2 met.
•  this is the last match of the season so Barnsley are down.  QPR have secured a play-off spot and this is as dead as a dead rubber can get. Time to skidaddle!

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12:15 UK Ipswich   v   Sheff Wed - 1.67 home

12:15 UK Leicester   v   Doncaster - 1.5 home

14:30 UK Borussia Dortmund   v   Hoffenheim  - 1.4 home
Standout stats

• it is with a tear in my eye that I saw the 0-0 last weekend, Hoffenheim's first aberration in what has been a statistically remarkable season for us punters.
• both teams have scored in the last 4 head to heads
• It was 2-2 the last time these 2 met with Hoff 2-0 up at home
• this is 2nd v 9th

Dortmund

• only 2 defeats in 15 were matches prior to a Champions League fixture
• have scored at least 2 goals in 6 of their last 7 matches. 
• are safe in a Champions League spot so not necessary to win
• have failed to score in only 5 matches all season
• have conceded 2 goals in each of their last 2 matches
• in 8 home matches v top 10, Dortmund have won only 2 matches, and scored and conceded against 5th, 6th, 7th, 8th and 10th. Guess who they're playing today. Yes, 9th!
• 75%^ over 2.5 goals at home
• 5 0-0's at halftime at home is quite a surprise
• have scored 25 of their 38 home goals in the 2nd half.

Hoffenheim

• first 0-0 of the season came in their last match which was 
• one of only 5 matches in which the Hoff failed to score
• one of only 3 matches all season in which the Hoff kept a clean sheet
• one of only 5 matches all season which finished under 2.5 goals.
• one of only 4 matches all season which finished 0-0 at halftime
• have scored and conceded in 6 of their last 7 away matches
• have scored and conceded in 5 of 6 away matches against top 7 sides this season
• have scored and conceded in 11 of 12 matches against top 7 teams home and away
• have conceded in their last 16 away matches
• only 2 0-0's at halftime away from home
• have conceded 20 goals first half and 16 goals 2nd half away from home

Profitable in-play opportunities

• we must acknowledge this is a dead rubber and we saw last week that the Hoff took their foot off the gas. They keep conceding away and Dortmund keep scoring 2+. A chance for normal service to be resumed as long as these 2 teams are not dreaming of summer hols.
• if normal service is to be resumed, then there will be a goal at least before halftime, both teams will score, the Hoff will be highly vulnerable if taking the lead, it is over 2.5 goals too.
• It's up to you if you want one last hurrah!
• If we don't see an early goal, delay!

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15:00 UK Barcelona   v   Getafe  -1.06 home

Standout stats

• this is a must win, and this season end, Barcelona have won all must wins, thanks for Leo Messi goals. They were 2-0 down to Villareal but won 2-3.
• Getafe have a small matter of being 2 points from relegation themselves so will put up a fight.
• Barca are 4 points shy of Atl Madrid in 2nd spot so must must win this match

Barcelona

• have conceded first in their last 3 matches. We can only hope this continues today. Against Villareal, 2 own goals helped get Barca back into the match and Messi polished it off as he usually does.
• 4 of the 5 defeats this season have come away from home and have been 1-0
• 6 consecutive home wins

15:00 UK Annan   v   Elgin - 1.5 home

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15:00 UK Aston Villa   v   Hull - 2.2 home
Standout stats

• 0-0 earlier in the season is not much help in getting an angle in here.
• this is 16th v 13th. Aston Villa are 3 points clear of the relegation zone. Hull City are 5 points clear of the relegation zone. What these 2 sides have going for them is the fact they have a game in hand over the current bottom 3.
• 3 matches remain for these 2 sides to salvage their season. This therefore is your typical relegation 6 pointer.

Aston Villa

• only 2 wins in 12 matches includes 5 losses and a draw
• after beating Norwich and Chelsea at home, Villa have lost to Stoke, Fulham and drawn 0-0 with Southampton
• only 2 wins against top 14 sides  at home were bizarrely against Chelsea and Manchester City.
• The majority of positive home results have come agianst 15th and lower in the league. Hull are 13th
• 8 0-0's at halftime at home
• have scored first in only 4 home matches this season. Imagine the pressure that heaps on the side.
• Opponents have led at halftime in half of home matches

Hull

• only 2 wins in 8 matches. A 2-2 draw with Fulham showcased battling qualities as Fulham were 2-0 up
• 2 losses and a draw away after 2 wins away to Cardiff and Sunderland
• only 3 away wins, 2 were against 17th and 20th as mentioned above.
• have scored in 3 of 4 matches away to bottom 4 sides
• 5 0-0's at halftime away from home
• have scored first in only 4 away matches this season
• Opponents have led at halftime in 7 of 17 away matches

Profitable in-play opportunities

• relegation 6 pointer typifies the matches we'll meet at this part of the season. Both in poor form, both sides coming to life at the lower echelons of the table. 
• Looking purely from a stats point of view. I am taken by Hull's ability to score at least 2 goals in 3 of their 4 matches away to bottom 4 ( they play 5th bottom today).
• Either team could score first today and either team could lead at halftime! Yes, it's a tricky match

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15:00 UK Ayr   v   East Fife - 1.61

15:00 UK Brentford   v   Stevenage - 1.44 home

15:00 UK Celtic   v   Aberdeen - 1.44 home

15:00 UK Dundee   v   Dumbarton - 1.33 home

15:00 UK Dunfermline   v   Rangers - 1.25 away

15:00 UK Man Utd   v   Sunderland - 1.33 home
Standout stats

• 
  

Profitable in-play opportunities

17:00 UK Galatasaray   v   Genclerbirligi - 1.44 home

friday

Non committal in both matches yesterday and a reminder that just because there are matches on the in-play coupon, it doesn't mean you have to get involved.

1230pm - Balestier Khalsa v Harimau Muda B - 1.52 home
Standout stats


Profitable in-inplay opportunities




1230pm - Woodlands Wellington v Brunei DPMM FC - 1.7 away
Standout stats


Profitable in-inplay opportunities


2pm - Khimik Dzerzhinsk v Angusht Nazran - 1.32 home
Standout stats

• 
  

Profitable in-inplay opportunities


3pm - Atromitos v Panathinaikos - 2.7 away
Standout stats

• a 0-0 draw last time. This could go either way , so says the head to heads, backed up by a 2.7 quote for the favourite.
• this is 4th v 3rd and almost identical stats, goals difference and points. 2nd place is up for grabs with a win .Atromitos would like to break into the top 3 for European competition.
• this is a greek play off match . 4 teams play off for 1 Champions League and 2 Europa League places. I have researched by league form which may be redundant given the fact these play-offs are a unique experience where tactics might play a part.

Atromitos

• only 6 defeats all season, but 2 defeats in their last 4 matches
• have failed to score in 3 of their last 4 matches
• 7 clean sheets at home in their last 8 matches.
• undefeated at home, but draws against 1st, 2nd, 3rd

Panathanaikos

• only 2 defeats in 16 matches
• draw and loss in their last 2 away matches
• only 1 loss in 11 came in their last match , an away match
• failed to score in only 6 matches all season
• only 1 win away to top 5

Profitable in-inplay opportunities

• a toughie this one. Statistically Atromitos are strong at home , unbeaten in 17 but draw v top 3. Is that the angle in? Favour Atromitos. 
• Atromitos have been keeping clean sheets too at home. Will this allow for a long 0-0?

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3pm - Mordovia Saransk v Rotor Volgograd - 1.37 home
Standout stats


Profitable in-inplay opportunities


330pm - Haka v HJK Helsinki - 1.58 away
Standout stats

• The Finnish cup and I'll admit, it's not one of my strong suits! Only 1 loss since 2012 in the cup came away last match for HJK.
• Haka are a lower league side who have a good cup record, unbeaten in 90 minutes since 2013 but we don't know the kind of teams they have been playing.
• A match simply for you to decide whether to favour the bigger team HJK Helsinki if they concede first.

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5pm - Sparta Prague v FK Jablonec - 1.27 home
Standout stats

• this is a czech cup match
• 3-1 to Jablonec from the first leg and the market expects the home team to win this match in an attempt to regain parity
• In the last 7 head to heads, both teams have scored

Sparta Prague

• Sparta did this last match. They lost away 2-1 to Dukla Prague, but won 2-0 at home.
• they have scored and conceded in 7 of 9 cup matches
• 2-1 and 2-0 in their last 2 home cup matches

Jablonec

• something to cling onto, and if both teams continue to score and concede as they have done, Jablonec will have a good chance here of going through even if losing the match
• Jablonec lost 1-0 away to Sparta in the cup in 2012 and lost their last away match 1-0 in the cup

Profitable in-inplay opportunities

• little to go on I'm afraid. The stats tell us both teams like to score when they meet, so if you want to speculate, then 2-1, 3-1 could be goers.
• The market expects Sparta to win this match in an effort to address a 3-1 deficit from the first leg.

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515pm - Ludogorets v CSKA Sofia - 1.52 home
Standout stats

• this is a Bulgarian league match and as it is not featured at soccerstats, I can only do limited research
• 4 wins and a 0-0 in Ludogorets favour without CSKA scoring in any of those 5 head to heads

Ludogorets

• unbeaten in 2014 but plagued by draws. 4 draws in their last 5 matches 
• only 2 defeats at home since April 2012 in the league is solid form
• have kept 4 clean sheets in their last 5 home matches

CSKA

• 4 wins in their last 5 sees reasonable form. 4 wins in their last 7 matches saw 2 defeats, one of which was against Ludogorets - a 77th minute goal
• 4 wins, 2 0-0's and a 2-0 loss to Plovdiv shows reasonable recent away form

Profitable in-inplay opportunities

• very limited research here. Ludogorets keep clean sheets against CSKA on a consistent basis.
• given the number of draws Ludogorets are having, should CSKA score first, we might be able to lay them
• there may be a concerted 0-0 here given the draws and given the home clean sheets.

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515pm - PAOK v Asteras Tripolis - 1.63 home
Standout stats

• Asteras won 2-1 after conceding first in the last head to head. Prior to that PAOK had won 2 at home 1-0 and 2-0
• this is a greek play off match . There are 6 sets of 2 matches to be played
• this was 2nd v 5th in the league and there were 11 points between the 2 sides
• PAOK scored 2 goals at least in 8 of their last 9 matches in the league so were in a good bit of goalscoring form before season-proper ended.
• Unbeaten at home, PAOK should retain some confidence today
• they scored 2+ in all bar 3 home matches
• Asteras in the season lost to 1st, 2nd, 3rd and 4th away so they don't have any form which leads me to conclude that they will threaten PAOK today.
• In those defeats, they conceded at least 2 goals.

Profitable in-inplay opportunities

• although these play offs between 2nd-5th are "one off" unique events, PAOK at home do look solid and Asteras have a record of failure. I would side with PAOK today. Ideally, we'll see 2 PAOK goals at least 

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6pm - Marienlyst v Hvidovre - 1.78 away
Standout stats


Profitable in-inplay opportunities


745pm - Chelsea v Atl Madrid - 2.28 home

Standout stats

• at the weekend , the market thought Chelsea would have to decide between the title and the Champions League, but Chelsea stepped up and won 0-2. They bring this confidence into tonight's match.
• They must retain their clean sheet as they did not score an away goal. Atl Madrid''s job is simple. Score, and play for a win or a score draw. If they score first, then they will be at a huge advantage.
• Again little research to do.

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creating value from short prices

Here is an excerpt of April's article on "creating value from short prices"
Follow this step-by-step strategy to optimise your chances of collecting an evens return time after time.
1) Ensure you know your fractional and decimal odds.  This will allow you to use both the bookmakers and www.betfair.com as your resources with which to mine for 1/5, 1 /4 and 1/3 shots. For the record, a 1/5 shot is 1.20 in decimal odds. A 1 /4 shot is 1.25 in decimal odds. A 1/3 shot is 1.33 in decimal odds.
2) Don’t restrict yourself to backing selections in order to make your quota of 1/5 , 1/4 and 1/3 shots. With our ability to lay ( as the patriarch reminds us this month), we can get the same return as a 1/5 , 1/4 and 1/3 shot by laying selections at certain prices. Keep a note of the lay odds below which correspond to the same as backing the selection.
1/5 shot is 1.20  - lay a selection at 6.00  . Backing a 1.20 shot with £100 will return £20. Laying a selection at odds of 6.00 for £100 liability ( not stake) will return around £20.
1 /4 shot is 1.25 – lay a selection at 5.00. Backing a 1.25 shot with £100 will return £25. Laying a selection at odds of 5.00 for £100 liability ( not stake) will return around £25.
1/3 shot is 1.33 – lay a selection at 4.00. Backing a 1.33 shot with £100 will return £33. Laying a selection at odds of 4.00 for £100 liability ( not stake) will return around £33.

What I am going to attempt now is to try and sniff out a 1.2, 1.25 or 1.3 shot which can be backed, or a 6.00, 5.00 or 4.00 shot which can be layed.
 I will use the techniques I suggested within the article. I hope you find it informative

all bar Barcelona won for the shortlisters. The tennis continues to perform well with only one of the shorties not winning. All of the horses mentioned on Saturday won or were placed.



RACING POST SHORTLISTERS/PRICE GAPPERS. We look to find horses with an obvious chance of winning, but we want to back them in the TO PLACE ONLY  market.

235 bath
Betting forecast: 4/6 Good Value, 9/4 Opera Fan, 4/1 Solidarity.

3 horses for 2 places so a purely probability race] - 2nd 1.2

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205 Beverley
Betting forecast: 7/4 Clouds Rest, 5/1 Free Entry, 7/1 Penny Royale, 7/1 Soie D´leau, 8/1 Monsieur Jimmy, 10/1 Multiplier, 10/1 Show Spirit, 14/1 Don´t Tell Bertie, 20/1 Autumn Revue, 25/1 Alfie Bond.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: It could take one of the newcomers to trouble CLOUDS REST, who showed enough early dash at Nottingham to believe she can make the most of the plum draw. Free Entry, whose stable won this last year, and Penny Royale, from a family her trainer knows inside out, are feared most. Better is also expected from Monsieur Jimmy.[Alistair Whitehouse-Jones]

Ran 2nd 15 days ago which is a positive for the maiden favourite here. BUT 7 of his opponents are debutants and thus unknowns - 1st 1.17
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200 Curragh
Betting forecast: 30/100 The Great War, 5/1 Bwana, 8/1 Fresh Focus, 16/1 Arriana, 33/1 Intense Style, 40/1 Bluerince Lady.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: THE GREAT WAR shaped like Royal Ascot material first time out at Tipperary and should deal with Cork winner Bwana. [Alan Sweetman]

Win only on the Aiden O'Brien short priced favourite? - 1st 1.12
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415 Curragh

Betting forecast: 1/3 Magician, 5/1 Parish Hall, 12/1 Hall Of Mirrors, 14/1 Paene Magnus, 28/1 Jazz Girl.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Supporting Aidan O'Brien's supposed good things in early-season races at this level has not always been the smartest move, but it will be hugely disappointing if MAGICIAN doesn't prove far too good for his opponents. Though he won the Breeders' Cup Turf over 1m4f, his impressive success in the Irish 2,000 Guineas suggests there is no reason to worry about him stepping back to 1m2f here as he clearly has plenty of pace. Parish Hall ought to be the one to chase him home. [Thomas Deane]

a 37 day course and distance winner and beaten favourite last time out, this Aidan O'Brien favourite is warn order here. Depending on whether we get a place only price at around 1.2, this might have to be a win only bet - 1st 1.19
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320 Ffos las
Betting forecast: 6/4 Fuse Wire, 7/4 Trooper Clarence, 9/4 Rime Avec Gentil.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Trooper Clarence is the likeliest pacemaker but it's not easy to predict much else, with him regressive in the last few years and the other two still early in their chase careers. The benefit of a recent run tips the scales towards FUSE WIRE.[Stuart Redding]

3 horses for 2 places is another probability race - 3rd 1.41
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250 Kempton
Betting forecast: 8/11 Simply A Legend, 4/1 Generous Helpings, 11/2 Parish Business, 8/1 Royal Ripple, 20/1 Shanty Town, 25/1 Millers Pudsey, 33/1 Bus Named Desire.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: SIMPLY A LEGEND was always likely to raise his game once settling better and the first-time hood did the trick in that respect at Ascot, form that comfortably sets the standard in this company. Generous Helpings would be the most likely improver, though Parish Business should also have a future.[Alistair Whitehouse-Jones]
Price gapper in a novices hurdle, albeit only 2 places available - 1st 1.13
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415 Warwick
Betting forecast: 8/11 Bon Voyage, 6/1 Scarlet Plum, 8/1 Gambol, 8/1 Saalib, 16/1 Havana Girl, 16/1 Hooke´s Law, 16/1 Sharp Volley, 33/1 Musical Theme, 33/1 Purana, 40/1 Semaral, 66/1 Sound Of Life.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Confidence in BON VOYAGE is reduced slightly by last month's rather disappointing reappearance, but it came in a competitive race and 6f was probably a bit sharp for him. His best 2yo form sets a fairly high standard and he should get off the mark here. Saalib and Scarlet Plum are both expected to build on inauspicious debuts. Sharp Volley is arguably the most interesting newcomer.[Chris Wilson]
Big price gapper here in this maiden, a 7th place last time out 17 days ago. The form prior to that was 3434 and this is a 5 race maiden, so patience with backers wearing thin 2nd 1.27
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TENNIS SHORT PRICES

All wins on Saturday bar one but plenty to choose from when building just that one treble per day.
10am -  Dodig v Nishikori ( 1.16) - 39th v 12th and 1-1 in head to heads . Would have liked to see Nishikori top 10 -  NISH WIN 2 SETS
10am -  Flipkens v N Li( 1.1) - WIN 2 SETS
1145am -  Tsonga ( 1.22) v Roger-Vasselin  -13th v 47th and 4-0 in head to heads - WIN 3 SETS
1pm -  Matosevic v Kohlschreiber( 1.23) - 68th v 27th and 0-1 in head to heads - LOST 2 SETS
115pm -  Thiem ( 1.26 ) v Tursunov - 70th v 32nd and the higher ranked player is the outsider here - WON 2 SETS
130pm -  Youzhny ( 1.33)v B Becker - 16th v 62nd  and 3-0 in head to heads - WON 2 SETS
2pm -  Halep( 1.24) v Goerges - 5th v 97th and 0-1 to the underdog in head to heads - WON 2 SETS
3pm -  A Ramos ( 1.32) v Mahut  -WON 2 SETS
4pm -  Svitolina v J Jankovic (1.2) - 36th v 7th and 0-1 head to head -   -WON 2 SETS
5pm -  Giraldo ( 1.22) v L Hewitt - 46th v 43rd - WON 3 SETS
6pm -  Meusburger v Suarez Navarro ( 1.21) -  38th v 15th - WON 2 SETS
830pm -  Dimitrov ( 1.22)v Carreno Busta - 14th v 63rd - WON 2 SETS



FOOTBALL SHORTIES

130pm - Angusht Nazran v FC Ufa - 1.26 away WON 0-1
630pm - Steaua Bucharest v Corona Brasov - 1.11 suggests a halftime/fulltime punt will bring us to the 1.2+ odds we need - WON 3-0 SCORED BEFORE HALFTIME
8pm - Juventus v Atalanta - 1.22 home - already won the title - WON 1-0






SHORTLIST

1145am -  Tsonga ( 1.22) v Roger-Vasselin  -13th v 47th and 4-0 in head to heads
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2pm -  Halep( 1.24) v Goerges - 5th v 97th and 0-1 to the underdog in head to heads 
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235 bath
Betting forecast: 4/6 Good Value, 9/4 Opera Fan, 4/1 Solidarity.
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3 horses for 2 places so a purely probability race]
Place back the market leader if the place only odds are 1.2 or higher
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200 Curragh
Betting forecast: 30/100 The Great War, 5/1 Bwana, 8/1 Fresh Focus, 16/1 Arriana, 33/1 Intense Style, 40/1 Bluerince Lady.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: THE GREAT WAR shaped like Royal Ascot material first time out at Tipperary and should deal with Cork winner Bwana. [Alan Sweetman]


Win only on the Aiden O'Brien short priced favourite? May have to be win only
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415 Warwick
Betting forecast: 8/11 Bon Voyage, 6/1 Scarlet Plum, 8/1 Gambol, 8/1 Saalib, 16/1 Havana Girl, 16/1 Hooke´s Law, 16/1 Sharp Volley, 33/1 Musical Theme, 33/1 Purana, 40/1 Semaral, 66/1 Sound Of Life.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Confidence in BON VOYAGE is reduced slightly by last month's rather disappointing reappearance, but it came in a competitive race and 6f was probably a bit sharp for him. His best 2yo form sets a fairly high standard and he should get off the mark here. Saalib and Scarlet Plum are both expected to build on inauspicious debuts. Sharp Volley is arguably the most interesting newcomer.[Chris Wilson]

Big price gapper here in this maiden, a 7th place last time out 17 days ago. The form prior to that was 3434 and this is a 5 race maiden, so patience with backers wearing thin

Shortlisted only because this is the biggest price gapper of the day. If you can get your 3 treble selections from elsewhere then I would recommend that
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8pm - Juventus v Atalanta - 1.22 home - already won the title - on an ordinary day this would be a strong selection but having won the title, hmmm! Still Juve are at home and will want one last hurrah? You know the risks though betting on NON- must wins.

TUESDAY

0-0 for the Pohang steelers in the Asian Champions League. GKS Belchatow won 1-0 at odds of 1.42. The goal came in the 83rd minute so there was a 0-0 lay available for any takers.
The Bulgarian cup saw Ludogorets 0-2 up, so they could tolerate a 1-0 loss, which indeed they did! Remember, teams that don't need to win, rarely do.
Gorika in the Slovenian league won 1-0.
I thought the research in the Shakhtar match was spot on. I warned you about Tavriya being tight away from home. It all looked rosey at 2-0 up at halftime, but Tavriya battened down the hatches. The match ended 2-1 and the stat that Tavriya had not conceded more than 2 goals away from home, came to fruition.
Did you keep faith with PSG? 0-0 at halftime and a red card for Evian in the 61st minute ensured they could not do the double.  PSG won 1-0 with an 89th minute goal. DELAY anyone??
Toulouse and Lyon ended 0-0. Well done to Real Madrid, a perfect evening. Score a goal and keep a clean sheet. Most un-Real Madrid like. Defensive lessons midweek?


3pm - Hoverla v Dnipro - 1.41 away
Standout stats

• Ukrainian Premier League match
• Dnipro have won the last 6 head to heads but 3 of the last 4 wins were 1-0
• this is 13th v 2nd. Dnipro has 2 games in hand over Shakhtar and only 6 points to make up. So these 2 games in hand must be won

Hoverla

• only 6 wins all season, 4 of which were 1-0
• Draw and loss in their last 2 home matches
• only 6 clean sheets all season
• have kept 3 clean sheets in their last 5 matches
• have not won home or away v top 8 sides. have lost at home , conceding 2, to 1st , 3rd and 4th
• have failed to score in 4 of 5 matches at home to top 7 sides

Dnipro

• only 3 defeats all season and one came in their last match. Having only lost 3 all season, will Dnipro really lose 2 consecutive matches?
• a 6 match winning run was ended with that defeat latest
• have failed to score in only 2 matches
• 5 clean sheets in their last 7 matches
• have beaten all teams 11th and under in the league home and awa
• scored 4-3-3-2 in those away wins

Profitable in-play opportunities

• a match where a sequence should end, it is a short sequence. Dnipro have only failed to score 2 this season, but failed to score in their last match. Dnipro have only 3 defeats this season but lost in their last 2 matches. We should not see another consecutive defeat to nil today , particularly as they have 2 games in hand over Shakhtar which, if won, will take them joint top
• Hoverla tend to lose to top 4 at home, conceding at least 2 goals. 4 of their 6 season wins were 1-0 so if they score first you might want an insurance on the 1-0 . Dnipro only just win in head to heads but have scored 2+ away v bottom 4 sides in wins

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5pm - Orkla v Rosenborg - 1.02 away
Standout stats
Norwegian cup match and 1.02 suggests a halftime win, and the likelihood of as many as 7+ goals from Rosenborg ( if they can be bothered - I have seen teams before who tend to take the foot off the gas at 4-0)
Speculative if you want on 0-7, 0-9 something like that and bet with a bookie as the betfair markets are terribly illiquid
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530pm - Volyn v Metalist - 1.58 away
Standout stats

• in a quiet day I might as well research this soccerstats-featured league
• 5 Metalist wins in their last 6 head to head meetings
• 12th v 4th - 14 points away from 1st place, metalist will not be winning the title.

Volyn

• 3 consecutive defeats ended a run of 5 unbeaten matches
• have failed to score in their last 2 home matches
• have beaten Shakhtar at home 2-0 but lost to 2nd and 3rd amd 6th at home

metalist Kharkiv

• only 3 defeats all season and the reason they are not in the title race  - 8 draws, 7 of which were score draws
• only 2away defeats v 3rd and 7th. Have not beaten any top 9 away because of 5 draws. Wins away came v bottom 3, all clean sheets and 2/3 goals scored.
• have scored in their last 8 matches overall

Profitable in-play opportunities

• 2 of the lesser lights. I can see Metalist NOT losing. Their draws away seem to come v top 9 teams. Volyn are 4th bottom and Metalist have beaten bottom 3 wither 0-2 or 0-3. The score draw does loom though, albeit v better sides.
• Volyn beat Shakhtar at home. An anomoly?

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805pm - Benfica v Juventus - 2.66 home
Standout stats

• knee jerk? Seria A is far more competitive than a Pork and Cheese league comprising of 3 above average teams and the rest , dross!
• Juventus have been so solid this season that their odds could represent value, were it not for the 2 legged aspect of this match
• Juventus, it could be argued, have had the easier run in the Europa league ( EL) with matches v Trabzonspor, Fiorentina, and Lyon.
• Benfica have played AZ, Spurs and PAOK.
• Both teams are in magnificent domestic form.
• As you know by now, as with Real and Bayern last night, the home side wants a clean sheet and ideally a goal, but will tolerate a 0-0 as they will hold the advantage in the 2nd leg.
• Juventus will want to finish the tie off today with a goal or 2 away.
• 1-1 in a friendly in 2012
• Good luck with this one! No stats angles in. I personally think Juventus come from a stronger league and have better players and would favour them.

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805pm - Sevilla v Valencia - 1.79 home
Standout stats

• this is an all Spanish affair in the europa league and Sevilla have been in outstanding goalscoring form as you'll know if you have been reading my research on them in recent weeks.
• As this is a unique 2 legged affair I feel that head to heads are redundant as tactics must play a part, with the away goal rule ever present.
• Form wise, Sevilla re superb with 4 consecutive wins 4-1, 4-1, 0-2, 4-0
• Valencia are having a season to forget. They used to be the perennial 3rd best in Spain, but no longer.
• Valencia unexpectedly lost 3-0 away at Basel in their last leg, only to batter them 5-0 at home
• As I say , it is hard to get a stats angle in as the home team are seeking a clean sheet and a goal or 2, and the away side are seeking a goal or 2 and ideally a clean sheet

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FRIDAY, SATURDAY, SUNDAY

Easy as you like for Willem II yesterday with a comfortable 4-0 win which went as per the odds and the fact Telstar had recently conceded 13 goals in 2 matches ( must be managed by David Moyes).
I was correct about both teams scoring in the Brighton v Blackpool match, it was a pity though that Blackpool did not score first as I'd have had more confidence laying them

City were expected to score 2 at least, and they got 3. Aguero a welcome addition for fans. West Brom did score as per the stats.City made sure this time with 3 1st half goals.
Villareal did concede as I predicted and indeed the "ultra tight" Malaga turned up.


1215pm - Leyton Orient v Wolves - 2.08 away
Standout stats


Profitable in-play opportunities





1245pm - Silkeborg v Marienlyst - 1.18 home

1pm - Waldhof Mannheim v Pfullendorf - 1.31 home

130pm - Fortuna Sittard v Almere City - 1.75 home

130pm - Volendam v Achilles 29 - 1.23 home

130pm - Willem II v Telstar - 1.19 home
Standout stats

• 2 consecutive head to head wins for Telstar. Should 1.19 shots Willem be worried?
• this is 1st v 17th .A win required by both sides for completely different reasons!

Willem II

• unbeaten in 12. Their only 2 defeats in 18 ,matches were 0-1 home defeats
• have scored 3-1-2-7-3-3 in recent home matches
• have scored in their last 12 matches
• 10 over 2.5 goals matches in their last 11
• only 2 clean sheets in their last 15 matches
• have beaten all teams 12th and lower at home bar 16th 
• have conceded in their last 10 away matches

Telstar

• only 1 win in 6 matches was their last away match
• only 5 clean sheets all season
• have conceded 8 and 5 in their last 2 home matches, which while not away matches, could betray some defensive worries OR an over reaction defensively today
• only 4 away wins, but a close 4-3 loss away to 2nd, 2 1-1 draws with 3rd and 4th away and a 0-1 win v 5th away - interesting!
• no away 0-0

Profitable in-play opportunities

• head to heads and Telstar's record against top 5 away suggests 1.19 is far too short for a Willem II side obviously in fine fettle. 
• Both teams could score today. For all their solidity, Willem are conceding regularly 
• Based on recent form of course, Willem II are totally dominant, they have scored 3-1-2-7-3-3 in recent matches and face a Telstar team who conceded 13 goals in 2 recent matches.

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2pm - FC Midtjylland v Viborg - 1.54 home

2pm - Falkenbergs v Elfsborg - 1.76 away

230pm - Valerenga v Sandnes Ulf - 1.68 home

230pm - Viking v Haugesund - 1.64 home

3pm - Brighton v Blackpool - 1.51 home
Standout stats

• a 6-1 Brighton win and a 0-1 Brighton away  win in 2013 head to heads
• this is 6th v 22nd. And as befits this time of the year, both teams need the points.Brighton have at least 4 teams threatening their play-off spot so really must win at home. Blackpool find themselves in the relegation zone and so tight it is at the bottom, that 3 points today could secure eventual survival!

Brighton

• 3 losses in their last 12 all came in a cluster. The last 5 matches saw 3 draws and 2 wins.
• 2 recent home defeats ended with a win latest
• 6 home defeats, 4 were v the top 9 and there was a worrying loss v 2nd bottom 1-2.
• that seems to be an abberation, as we see 5 clean sheets in 6 matches against 16th and lower at home
• 8 0-0's at halftime at home, 38% of matches
• have scored 19 of their 28 goals at home in the 2nd half.

Blackpool

• only 2 wins in 26 matches were both 1-0 home wins
• 9 defeats in their last 12 matches
• only 3 clean sheets in 26 matches 
• only 3 wins away 2 of which were against 9th and 10th. have scored and conceded in all away matches v top 7 
• no win in 14 away
• 5 0-0's at halftime away
• have conceded 23 of their 38 away conceded goals in the 2nd half

Profitable in-play opportunities

• Brighton have the best of the recent head to heads but have unconvincing form despite only 3 losses in 12 matches. The odds are a reflection of Blackpool whose balloon has burst.
• Only 2 wins in 26 suggests they will not win today. No win in 14 away matches reitereated that. 
• We might see both teams score though! Blackpool have scored and conceded so far in the matches they have played away to top 7 sides. 

3pm - Derby v Barnsley - 1.57 home

3pm - Kidderminster v Nuneaton - 1.63 home

3pm - Preston v Shrewsbury - 1.64 home

3pm - QPR v Watford - 2.2 home
Standout stats


Profitable in-play opportunities



3pm - Rotherham v Port Vale - 1.58 home

3pm - UCD v Cork City - 1.41 away

4pm - Sirius v Varbergs BoIS - 1.45 home

4pm - Vasalunds IF v Valsta Syrianska - 1.6 home

430pm - Malmo FF v Djurgardens - 1.58 home

5pm - Athlone v Dundalk - 1.28 away

5pm - Hajduk Split v Lokomotiva - 1.55 home

5pm - Molde v Sarpsborg - 1.36 home

5pm - Odd v Stabaek - 1.48 home

6pm - FC Copenhagen v Esbjerg - 1.83 home

620pm - Hammarby v Angelholms - 1.31 home

7pm - Shamrock Rovers v Bray - 1.27 home

715pm - FC Koln v Bochum - 1.51 home

8pm - Man City v West Brom - 1.24 home
Standout stats

• City are trying as hard as they can to ruin their league title aspirations. A draw against Sunderland when priced shorter than today did not help.
• City have kept clean sheets in the last 3 home head to heads, latterly a tight 1-0. The actual last head to head was a 2-3 away win for City
• this is 3rd v 16th. Both sides are on 33 matches played where teams around them are on 34 or 35, so they must both take advantage of this potential 6 points.
• West Brom have 3 points in hand over the bottom 3 and City have a potential 6 points to eat into the 9 point gap to Liverpool.

Man City

• only 1 win in 4 matches. Yes they did play Liverpool and Arsenal in that time, but a 2-2 at home to Sunderland? 
• City have failed to score in only 4 matches all season
• they have only lost 1 match, v 2nd.They won the rest bar that 2-2 v Sunderland
• 75% over 2.5 goals at home ( 3/4 of matches)
• 3 0-0's at halftime at home but no fulltime 0-0's
• have scored 25 first half and 29 2nd half goals at home
• have scored first in 13 home matches
• have scored 7-4-5-2 against bottom 4 and are playing the 5th bottom side today

West Brom

• only 6 wins all season so statistically the probability of a win is 1 in 6
• only 2 defeats in 8 so are battling but 4 draws in those 8 is 4 won points but 8 dropped points!
• 2 wins away in their last 3 must give some hope
• have failed to score in only 3 of their last 17 matches
• only 2 clean sheets in 23 matches 
• have a reasonable away record v the best. lost 4-1 away to Liverpool but a 2-2 draw with Chelsea, a 0-0 with Everton and a 1-1 with Tottenham betrays likely away tactics.
• 5 0-0's away from home at halftime

Profitable in-play opportunities

• the Sunderland Incident cannot be repeated for a Man City with 2 games in hand but 9 points to make up. There is hope as Liverpool keep conceding alarmingly so City really must win.  Ditto West brom with only 3 points between them and relegation.
• Statistically, City are expected to score 2 at least ( as they did against Sunderland much to DRT'ers delight!). 
• West Brom have interestingly failed to score in only 3 of their last 17 matches so may oblige today, I hope first! West Brom's record against top teams away is solid , albeit draws rather than wins which adds an interesting dimension into this match.
• I expect a City reaction to the 2-2 draw at lower odds v Sunderland

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8pm - Porto v Rio Ave - 1.28 home
Standout stats

• Porto are unbeaten in head to heads with all wins bar a 2-2 draw. There is a strong tendency for Porto to score at least 2 goals when they meet Rio Ave
• this is 3rd v 11th, Porto cannot really get to 2nd so will be seeking to protect 3rd place
• Rio Ave are thinking of their Algarve golfing holidays I feel. They are safe

Porto

• considering it is only very recently that Porto went through a season unbeaten, 6 defeats this season is a poor showing for a club suffering because they are a "selling club"
• 7 wins in their last 8 home matches sees Porto maintain a good home record.
• 5 of Porto's 6 defeats this season have been 1-0 so if Rio Ave score early on, consider an insurance on the 0-1 scoreline just incase.......
• 2 consecutive 3-1 wins now sees Porto scoring well and in line with the expectations of a 1.28 shot
• as Porto don't do 0-0's, the only times they have failed to score, they have lost.
• only 1 home defeat was a recent 0-1 v 4th 
• Porto have never conceded more than 1 goal at home this season
• no draw in 8 at home
• 5 0-0's at halftime at home is about 39% of home matches
• Porto have conceded just 1 goal in the 1st half at home and scored 14

Rio Ave

• 5 of Rio Ave's last 6 wins have been 1-0 so that 0-1 insurance if they score first is compounded here.
• only 3 wins in their last 15 matches though sees struggles
• only 2 clean sheets in 11 matches
• Rio Ave were unbeaten in 3 until Benfica won 4-0 away latest
• BUT despite that loss to 1st, they have been good away to the best, 1-1 draw with 2nd, 0-1 win v 4th and 1-1 with 5th
• 7 0-0's at halftime away is just over 50% of away matches

Profitable in-play opportunities

• and interesting match statistically. Porto lose when not scoring. Rio Ave recently have been winning 1-0 when they win, so back 0-1 insurance bet if Rio Ave score first and then lay them in the match odds market.
• This seems a dead rubber for Rio Ave so despite s solid showing against the top 5 away, Porto's need to retain 3rd spot , and their comfort in head to heads, should ensure they are motivated enough tonight
• this might be 0-0 at halftime so don't be surprised.

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9pm - Malaga v Villarreal - 2.72 away
Standout stats

• 5 matches remain so these 2 would want to ensure safety ( Malaga in 13th) and try for 4th spot (5th probably more realistic) for 7th spot Villareal
• both sides have scored in tight encounters recently , hence I suppose the 2.72 for the favourite ( roughly translated from the bookies as " I haven't got a scooby doo mate!"

malaga

• 4 wins in 7 sees Malaga trying to ensure survival.
• they lost their 2 home matches before a recent 4-1 win against struggling Granada
• Malaga are really tight when the big boys come to town. 0-1 defeats to the top 3, 1-2 loss v 4th and a rather anomolous 3-2 win v Sevilla , was followed by another 0-1 loss to 6th and a 0-0 v 8th. You get the idea!!
• all wins bar 1 for Malaga have come against 11th and lower
• have conceded in their last 6 home matches
• 5 0-0's at halftime at home is about 31% of home matches

Villareal

• inconsistent would describe Villareal, a win is followed by a draw is followed by a loss is followed by a win.........
• 3 losses away and a 0-1 win in the last 4
• have failed to score in only 8 all season
• only 3 clean sheet in 19 matches though
• only 1 away draw  was a 0-0 suggesting Villareal don't do score draws away from home
• against 10th and lower , have lost to 14th, 17th, and 20th away
• no draw in 13 away
• only 2 0-0's at halftime away
• only 1 0-0 all season

Profitable in-play opportunities

• not a match which greatly appeals.Tough to split these 2 so says the head to heads and the betting market. 
• Will the ultra tight Malaga turn up today? The kind of home team that engender a 0-1 , or 0-0 when the big boys turn up ?
• Statistically Villareal are highly likely to concede at some stage, which might bring a 1-1 into play?

monday

Lyngby at 1..44 away justified their odds yesterday with a 0-3 win. The match was 0-0 at halftime so you could have researched at soccerstats at halftime to see whether a 0-0 lay was a goer.
Crvena Zvezda won 0-1, not quite in keeping with a 1.39 quote.
Plzen were laboured to say the least , winning 2-0 but winning all the same.
In the less than consistent Russian Cup, Rostov at 1.43 odds won 2-1 at home
It took a 40th minute penalty for 1.67 shots Copenhagen to win 0-1. The match was as tight as the head to heads suggested it would be.
In Germany I went with the angle that Hannover would concede at some stage, so layed them when they took the lead. Luckily they conceded next. The match was 1-3 at halftime and a good opportunity to lay an away side 1-3 up at halftime. Frankfurt made it interesting at 2-3 in the 68th minute.
A very tight match in Seria B saw Palermo scrape a 29th minute 1-0 win.
For those interested in Belgium, Standard were 0-2 down at home and went on to equalise 2-2 - faith in the 1.5 odds would have paid off.

Today is not a very good day. I have done some matches but we have predominantly a Dutch Juliper league which I really don't like.

I think my time would be better spent on the weekend's research - better teams, better leagues.

12/4

7AM - Kobe v Tokushima - 1.33 home

11am - FK Baku v Khazar Lankaran - 1.64 home

11am - Nomme Kalju v Tallinna Kalev - 1.07 home

1130am - CSKA Moscow v Ural - 1.35 home

12pm - G Furth v Erzgebirge - 1.54 home

12pm - Vorskla v Shakhtar - 1.26 away

1222pm - QPR v Nottm Forest - 2.16 home

1245pm - Rangers v Dundee Utd - 2.06 away

1252pm - Luton v Braintree - 1.53 home

1pm - Osnabruck v Stuttgart II  - 1.61 home

2pm - Dinamo Zagreb v Rijeka - 1.61 home

2pm - HJK Helsinki v KuPS - 1.33 home

2pm - Sparta Prague v Slavia Prague - 1.41 home

230pm - Astra Giurgiu v Concordia Chiajna - 1.36 home

230pm - Freiburg v Braunschweig - 2.14 home

230pm - Mainz v W Bremen1.82 home

230pm - Mgladbach v Stuttgart - 1.89 home

230pm - Wolfsburg v Nurnberg - 1.59 home

3pm - Dundee v Cowdenbeath - 1.42 home

3pm - Karpaty v Dinamo Kiev - 1.52 away

3pm - Malmo FF v Gefle - 1.28 home

307pm -  Palace v Aston Villa - 2.16 home

3pm - Crewe v Wolves - 1.66 away

3pm - Southampton v Cardiff - 1.48 home

3pm - Sunderland v Everton - 1.8 away

330pm - red bull - 1.22 home

4pm - lille - 1.59 home

430pm - zenit - 1.53 home

5pm - villareal - 1.5 home

5pm - wigan v arsenal - 1.53 away

530pm - bayern - 1.53 home

530pm - dnipro - 1.17 home

pm - granada v barcelona - 1.28 away

745pm - roma - 1.41 home

745pm - twente - 1.22 home

815pm - sporting lisbon - 1.25 home

9pm - real madrid  - 1.06 home
#
#

Those *****ing Germans. 2 goals shy of a successful over 5.5 goals treble with the Spanish ladies and Dutch ladies who both scored 10 hoals.

In the Europa League, both Benfica and Juventus won scoring 2 goals. I was spot on with Sevilla.They scored 4 goals again at home ( I was buoyed was watching them last weekend) and Porto got a late consolation goal.
The market was spot on about Valencia. They won 3-0 full time - precisely the scoreline required to take the match into extra time.
Atletico MG beat Zamora 1-0 in a match which did not present any DRT opportunities.

Another reminder. I am afraid I must go away this weekend so cannot do a live chat ( I really want to, as that new bit of kit I have included which presents shots on target/ corners/ possession really enhances the in-play experience) .I will not be able to research either as I will be travelling so do apologise. If I find time today, I will try to get some of the more eyecatching weekend matches researched for you.

430pm - Spartak Moscow v Kryliya Sovetov - 1.56 home

Standout stats

• Spartak are unbeaten in head to heads -the last 2 being 1-1 and 1-2 
• 5th v 11th. I suppose 3rd place is within Spartak's compass.

Spartak

• no win since the Winter Break
• 2-2 at home and 0-1 loss since the winter break
• have only lost 2 matches at home, against 1st in the league and 12th ( most recently unexpected 0-1) That team who just beat Spartak at home were a position lower than today's opponents
• have conceded in their last 5 matches
• only 2 0-0's at halftime at home

Kryliya ( Kry for short)

• have lost 4 and drawn 1 since the Winter break. 
• have scored and conceded in 10 of their last 13 matches
• have had 5 1-2 scorelines in their last 6 away matches, 2 wins and now 2 defeats
• have failed to score in only 4 matches so score in defeat more often than not
• have only kept 5 clean sheets 
• have lost 8 and drawn 1 of the 9 matches played home and away v the top 5 sides, scoring and conceding in 8 of those matches
• have scored in their last 6 away matches
• only 1 0-0 at halftime away

Profitable in-play opportunities

• both teams could reasonably score today and we could see a goal before halftime ( 0-0 halftime score lay low and late)
• Both teams have not won since the winter break. Spartak are unbeaten in head to heads so a 2-1 would be their optimum ( but with Kryliya really have a 6th 1-2 or 2-1 scoreline in their last 7 away matches? 
• With a recent 0-1 loss to lowly Ural, Spartak's form is not that of a 1.56 shot. I suppose the market has factored in Kryliya's inability to win v top 5 sides - 8 losses in 9

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5pm - Levadia Tallinn v FC Infonet - 1.31 home

Standout stats

• I don't like researching leagues of only 10 teams, and that is what we have in Estonia. Only 5 matches into the season too. Infonet find themselves 2nd but overwhelming outsiders today.
• This is a match for reference only -there are stats at www.soccerstats.com if you want to play. 

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7th april 2014

England u19 took a while to get going and you could have backed these 1.15 shots at nearer 1.6 in play with a bit of delaying. They eventually scored and won.
A red card all but killed off Volga as Lokomotiv cruised to a 3-0 win . I thought about the 0-0 for a while but again said red card scuppered that.
 Juventus did what a 1.18 shot should do, win to nil. 2-0, 2 first half goals and I was spot on  - 2-4 goals and a possible win to nil. No DRT's there alas.

As easy as you like for Benfica , cruising to a 4-0 eventual win, with 2 late penalties. Only 1 goal in the first half in the Genoa match and AC Milan won 1-2 in the end in a match I was not really taken with given the relatively poor season the away side have had.

A nice DRT in the Spurs v Sunderland match which saw Sunderland threaten to " do a Sassuolo" with a 17th minute lead. My research indicated to "favour" Spurs, and when I say "favour" I mean this is the side we have on our side so if opponents score first, we can comfortably lay the opponents.
I suppose the ultra conservative amongst you would have backed 0-1 insurance and layed Sunderland incase of said " sassuolo type win"
Ath Bilbao were the form side going into the clash with levante . No 0-0 here though as Bilbao scored 2 first half goals and missed a penalty
Levante continue to fail to score - their goal was an own goal.

The Sunderland match then was the best DRT match of the night. The shorties all behaved themselves and won with ease ( which then does not present any DRT opportunities).

745pm - Blackburn v QPR - 2.48 home
Standout stats

• QPR are a side I have been following this season. 0-0 when these 2 met earlier in the season and the odds suggest an equally tight affair tonight.
• 11th v 3rd. Blackburn could conceivably be one place from the play-offs with 3 points this evening. QPR are 10 points from automatic promotion so their goal now must be the preservation of a play-off place

Blackburn

• unbeaten in 6 with 4 score draws, 3 of them 3-3,2-2,3-3
• 6 over 2.5 goals matches in their last 9
• against the top 8 at home, Blackburn are yet to win. They have drawn 4 though so warning for QPR
• In the 7 matches played home and away v top 4 sides, Blackburn have drawn 5 of them
• 9 0-0's at halftime at home is 45% of home matches
• have scored first in only 10 of 20 home matches yet only lost 5 matches at home.

QPR

• are haemorraghing points away from home at precisely the wrong time. 5 away defeats in their last 7 away matches
• Only 1 away win v the top 10 and are playing 11th today
• no draw in 8 aways against the supposed draw kings it seems, in Blackburn
• 11 0-0's at halftime away from home
• have conceded 15 of their 21 goals away in the 2nd half

Profitable in-play opportunities

• the 0-0 at halftime occurs a lot with these 2 and cannot be discounted. Neither can the draw when Blackburn play the top teams home and away. 
• If QPR score first, Blackburn might be able to respond you feel, given the number of draws, and high scoring draws of late.
• do note this is a league I don't specialise in. I'm only researching because it's a quiet night.

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745pm - Chelsea v Paris St-G - 1.86 home
Standout stats

• straightforward angles in here. It's 1-3 to PSG. Chelsea have an away goal so a 2-0 home win would see them through. 
• PSG for their part will go through with a simple 1-0 loss, 0-0 draw . Ideally a PSG away goal will make Chelsea's task very difficult  as they'll need 3 goals.
• Imperative therefore that a clean sheet is achieved by Chelsea and that is likely to be the early focus of the first half. A 0-0 pre match therefore? 

745pm - Dortmund v Real Madrid - 2.28 away

Standout stats

• Dortmund failed to score an away goal and that could be their downfall this evening. They must replicate a 3-0 home win in order just to stay in the tie. A Real Madrid away goal will see them through with a 3-1 home win .
• Expectation is for an attack-led game in stark contrast to Chelsea's defensive led early stages.

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745pm - Leicester v Brighton - 1.78 home
Standout stats

• a 3-1 Brighton home win earlier in the season
• this is 1st v 8th and like Blackburn, 3 points for Brighton could see them on the cusp of a play-off spot.
• leicester have a 9 point cushion at the top  and a 19 point cushion to play-off spots. With 6 matches remaining and 18 points on offer to 3rd in the league, it seems leicester are promoted automatically already as they cannot finish anything less than 2nd ( I'd better phone Carole Vorderman to make sure) so this is not a must-win for Leicester and their questionable motivation means this is a match I will leave alone. We see this at this stage of the season with seeming "dead rubbers" making for tough matches to trade.

745pm - Peterborough v Gillingham - 1.69 home
Standout stats

• this is 6th v 14th Peterborough are currently in a play-ff place but only 3 points from 7th in the league. They need to win therefore.
• Gillingham are 5 points from relegation so this will keep them honest to season-end

Peterborough

• only 4 draws all season so statistically more likely to avoid draws.
• have avoided a draw in their last 10 matches but only won 6 of those matches. Troubling times
• only 5 clean sheets in 21 matches
• only 2 draws at home were 0-0
• 5 0-0's at halftime at home

Gillingham

• only 6 clean sheets all season for Gillingham
• 3 of their 5 away wins came v bottom 6 sides.
• have lost away to 1st, 2nd and 3rd but not played 4th, 5th and are playing 6th away today
• A 2-2 when these 2 met earlier in the season
• 79% over 2.5 goals away is eyecatching
• NO 0-0 this season
• have conceded 17 1st half and 20 2nd half away goals

Profitable in-play opportunities

• I don't like this league - I'll start by saying that. I am only researching as it;s a quiet night. Stats wise, can we retain faith in Peterborough avoiding a draw, enough to allow us to profit from a trade if 0-0, 1-1 for a while?
• No 0-0 this season for Gillingham so if we get a concerted 0-0, then faith in Gills conceding at some stage.  That tallies with only 6 clean sheets all season! 
• Both sides could score this evening.

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745pm - Wigan v Millwall - 1.68 home

Standout stats

• 2-1 to Millwall in the last head to heads
• 
  

Profitable in-play opportunities

SUNDAY

11am - Malaga v Granada - 2.08 home
Standout stats

Profitable in-play opportunities




1130am - ADO Den Haag v Utrecht - 2.14 home
Standout stats

Profitable in-play opportunities




1130am - Lazio v Sampdoria - 1.79 home
Standout stats

Profitable in-play opportunities




1230pm - Kaiserslautern v Bochum - 1.53 home
Standout stats

Profitable in-play opportunities




1245pm - FC Basel v Thun - 1.6 home
Standout stats

Profitable in-play opportunities




1pm - St Etienne v Nice - 1.53 home
Standout stats

• St Etienne are unbeaten in their last 3 matches, winning the last 3 meetings with Nice
• this is 4th v 11th., and 3rd place is still within the grasp of St Etienne. Nice are in that comfort zone and won't be going down and are unlikely to be pushing for a European spot.

St Etienne

• only 3 defeats in 15 
• unbeaten in 8 home matches with 7 wins 
• have scored in their last 15 home matches
• 6 0-0's at halftime at home . There have been 8 1-0's. Perhaps back both in the Halftime market? 
• only conceded 1 goal in the 1st half. Scored 20 2nd half goals compared to one first half goal.

Nice

• only 2 wins in 8 matches
• 6 0-0's at halftime in their last 7 matches so a tendency to keep it tight in recent matches
• only 2 wins away came against 3rd and 6th
• 6 0-0's at halftime away and 8 1-0 losses at halftime away
• have conceded 14 of 22 goals 2nd half.

Profitable in-play opportunities

• if you have fairbot I would recommend "variable profit dutching" the halftime score 0-0 and 1-0. Load up profit on the scoreline which you think will occur. Stats wise it points to 0-0 or 1-0 ( to St Etienne ) at halftime. Not sure if the odds will allow good dutching
• St Etienne are the form side here and are likely to score first if there is a first half goal.
• Perhaps lay the halftime scoreline as St Etienne score loads 2nd half, and Nice concede the majority of their goals 2nd half. BUT do note Nice have been very tight of late in matches. It took a Nice own goal for PSG to beat them!

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130pm - Everton v Arsenal - 2.5 home
Standout stats

• Arsenal are unbeaten in the last 7 meetings with Everton. 3 consecutive draws ended with a 4-1 Arsenal win earlier this season.
• This is 5th v 4th.  3rd place is still up for grabs but only with a bit of luck and a winning run. I suppose the winner ( if there is one) of this match will be favourite to move up the placings. Everton do have a game in hand but are 4 points shy of Arsenal

Everton

• 5 consecutive wins for Everton and there is nothing like the roll of confidence which accumulates with a winning run
• Everton's last 3 defeats were away from home
• only 3 clean sheets in 17 matches
• Everton have lost only 1 match at home, against 2nd bottom and only then when their goalkeeper was sent off.
• Everton drew against Liverpool, beat Chelsea 1-0 but have not played 3rd and 4th
• 9 matches at home without a draw
• 5 0-0's at halftime at home is 27% of home matches

Arsenal

• 2 consecutive score draws
• Arsenal have lost 3 of their last 4 away matches , playing Liverpool and Chelsea, fellow top 4 sides
• Arsenal have lost away to 1st, 2nd and 3rd , and did beat 6th 0-1 ( Spurs - London derby?)
• 5 0-0's at halftime is nearly 1/3rd of away matches
• Arsenal have scored 15 goals in the last 1/2 hour of away matches

Profitable in-play opportunities

• where do Everton fit in? Arsenal have lost to the top 3 away. Everton are 5th?
• Everton are good at home, losing only 1 match, and are on a 5 match winning run.
• There is a chance this match might take a while to get going, as the 0-0 halftime % are quite high for these 2.
• Arsenal tend not to lose historically. Will that continue in a well-matched match today?

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130pm - Feyenoord v  RKC Waalwijk - 1.14 home
Standout stats

• RKC have drawn and won the last 2 meetings ( at RKC) but the market expects a mauling today!
• this is 2nd v 16th and Feyenoord still believe. They are 8 points shy of Ajax, make that 5 points with a win , so this is one of those season defining matches you feel. If RKC win, they will still be in the bottom 3.

Feyenoord

• only 2 defeats in 16 matches
• have won 3 of their last 4 matches at home, scoring 5 -2-5! 5 fits in nicely with a 1.14 quote today
• have failed to score in only 1 match this season
• 3 clean sheets in their last 4 matches
• only 3 defeats at home v 1st, 3rd and 12th .
• Have scored 3-4-5-4 against bottom 5 sides at home. Again 4/5 goals fits in with today's 1.14 quote
• have scored in all home matches and in their last 16 matches overall
• only 1 0-0 at halftime at home
• have scored a massive 12 goals in the 31st-45th minute and 10 goals in the 46th-60th minutes, so get to work before halftime at home and the halftime team talk obviously works too!

RKC

• only 3 wins in 13 matches, albeit beat PSV at home, and did beat Feyenoord at home earlier.
• won their last away match 0-1, but prior to that, conceded 3-4-3 in away matches. Again that's what you'd expect a 1.14 shot to do today.
• only wins away v 15th and 18th
• 4 0-0's at halftime away
• have scored first in only 3 matches away

Profitable in-play opportunities

• we can't forget the 1-0 win for RKC earlier in the season, but today, 1.14 signals 4+ goals, the kinds of goals scored by Feyenoord at home to bottom 5 sides, and the kinds of goals conceded by RKC in 3 of their last 4 away matches.
• If we assume a big haul, then it's not too much of a stretch to suggest a goal before halftime, particularly with Feyenoord scoring 12 home goals in the last 1/4 hour of the 1st half at home.
• This is all about that 1.14 quote equalling goals. That would be my angle. Ultra cautious might want to back 0-1 RKC incase they do the double ( as long as the odds are big).

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130pm - Vitesse v Ajax - 2.12 away
Standout stats

• Vitesse won the last head to head with a 90th minute winner!Vitesse have won 3 of the last 4 meetings so Feyenoord will be cheering them on
• this is 4th v 1st. A possibility for 3rd place for Vitesse. Ajax can maintain an 8 point gap at the top with a win.

Vitesse

• no win in 3 now for Vitesse so their challenges could peeter out if they don't get some points.,
• 1-2 v PSV and 2-2 v Heerenveen in their last 2 home matches
• 6 consecutive over 2.5 goals matches
• have failed to score in only 3 matches this season
• 3 defeats at home have come against top 7 
• conceded 2 at home to 2nd, 5th, 6th, 7th, 8th
• only 2 0-0's at halftime at home

Ajax

• unbeaten in 18 matches with only 4 draws. The last team to beat Ajax were......... Yes you guessed it!
• 5 clean sheets in their last 7 matches
• have failed to score in only 4 matches 
• Ajax have only won 1 match away to the top 9, but did draw 4 of those 7 matches played
• Ajax scored and conceded in 6 of those 7 away matches v the top 9
• 3 0-0's at halftime away from home
• have scored 11 away goals in the first halfhour 

Profitable in-play opportunities

• Ajax are clearly vulnerable away from home against the top 9, losing v 5th and 7th but being unbeaten in 18 matches you'd think the onus is on them NOT to lose ( which includes a draw).
• I'd Expect Ajax to score at some stage, and even both teams to score  - which fits in with Vitesse's 6 consecutive over 2.5 goals.
• This is intriguing as Vitesse are the team who have won 3 of 4 head to heads, yet ajax are on a spectacular unbeaten run, yet are clearly vulnerable away to top 9! Neutral goals bet perhaps ( to save us from nailing our colours to the mast?)

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2pm - Atalanta v Sassuolo - 1.84 home
Standout stats

• Sassuolo won the earlier league meeting 2-0 and Atalanta got their revenge in the Coppa Italia latest with a 2-0 home win
• this is 8th v 19th. Top 5 is still within Atalanta's grasp. sassuolo are 2nd bottom on 21 points, 4 points from 3rd bottom and are increasingly adrift.

Atalanta

• 6 consecutive wins for Atalanta.They kept 4 clean sheets in their last 5 matches
• 6 wins and a loss in their last 7 home matches
• Atalanta have won all home matches against teams below them in the league.
• 6 0-0's at halftime at home
• no 0-0 this season

Sassuolo

• only 3 wins in 17 matches saw 14 defeats.
• have not won in 9 away matches
• failed to score in 11 of those 17 matches
• only 1 clean sheet in 19 matches
• only 1 away win was a 3-4 v Sampdoria
• have tended to concede 2/3 goals against teams around Atalanta's position
• have scored first in only 1 of their away matches

Profitable in-play opportunities

• Sassuolo look like they will concede at some stage. Atalanta have hit home form and Sassuolo are having trouble scoring. It looks a little straighforward and I don't know if there'll be a DRT as Sassuolo have scored first in only 1 away match.

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2pm - Boluspor v Kahramanmarasspor - 1.31 home
Standout stats

Profitable in-play opportunities

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2pm - Cagliari v Roma - 1.71 away
Standout stats

• ( C=Cagliari, R=Roma, D=Draw) Here's the recent head to heads C-R-C-C-R-C-D - the draw was a 0-0. Cagliari more than hold their own historically. 
• this is 15th v 2nd . Cagliari are 7 points from relegation so are not safe just yet.
• Roma are 8 points shy of Juventus, make that 5 points possibly if they win today!So this becomes a very important match.

Cagliari

• only 3 wins in 16 matches all came at home. They all came without conceding and 2 were 1-0. Will Cagliari really keep Roma quiet?
• only 6 clean sheets this season
• Cagliari lost at home to 1st 1-4, drew 1-1 with 3rd  and 5th and beat Fiorentina 1-0
• You'd feel a 1-0 is their best chance here.
• 69% over 2.5 goals at home is quite high, albeit that tend to occur mostly agianst 8th and lower at home.
• only 1 0-0 at halftime at home
• have scored 9 home goals in the last 1/4 hour at home

Roma

• only 2 defeats this season against Juventus and napoli ( 1st and 3rd)
• a current 5 match winning run. Roma scored at least 2 goals in those 5 wins.
• have failed to score in only 5 matches this season
• only 2 losses as I say, both came away to 1st and 3rd
• have kept clean sheets away from home v 12th and lower , resulting in 6 wins
• 6 0-0's at halftime away from home

Profitable in-play opportunities

• out of form v in form. Stats wise, Roma are unlikely to lose. It takes a top 3 side to lower their colours. against 12th and bottom away, Roma's defence and clean sheets ensures the win. Cagliari for their part won at home recently keeping clean sheets and only the top 3 and derby rivals Lazio have kept Roma from scoring.
• you might want to back 1-0 Cagliari pre match as an insurance bet, as long as the odds are high but this looks Roma's match to lose. at their best, this is a 0-2 win 

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2pm - Catania v Torino - 2.64 home
Standout stats

Profitable in-play opportunities



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2pm - Fiorentina v Udinese - 1.72 home
Standout stats

• the last 2 head to heads were Coppa Italia and prior to that, Udinese won at home in the league 3-1 and 1-0.  The market expects Fiorentina to end that Udinese run today
• this is 4th v 14th, and perhaps Fiorentina are too far away from 3rd place to challenge Napoli. Udinese are 13 points clear of relegation and going nowhere fast as their season peeters out in the safety zone.

Fiorentina

• only 2 wins in 8 matches is not the form expected of 4th in the league.
• Fiorentina failed to score in 4 of their last 6 matches. The 2 matches they scored in, they won
• all Fiorentina losses at home have come v 10th and above. WDDWWWW ( W=Win, D=Draw) against 11th and over at home
• 67% over 2.5 goals at home is 2/3rd of home matches
• only 2 0-0's at halftime at home
• no 0-0 at home
• have scored first in only 8 of 15 home matches, yet lost only 4 home matches

Udinese

• only 2 defeats in 10 for Udinese came away from home against Cagliari and Roma
• 3 consecutive clean sheets includes Inter Milan away!
• I suppose the reason an admittedly out of form Fiorentina are so short is because Udinese have not won away v 16th and above .They did draw though against 3rd and 5th 
• only 2 0-0's at halftime away
• have conceded 15 goals in the last 1/2 hour of the first half away

Profitable in-play opportunities

• at first glance, 1.72 odds for a team with only2 wins in 8 matches is far too short. Add to this the fact Udinese have not lost the last 2 Seria A meetings and Fiorentina look on shaky ground.
• Udinese though are poor away from home and the stats point to them NOT winning this fixture ( they did draw away to the teams either side of Fiorentina in the league!)
• there could be a goal before halftime, particularly as Udinese concede so many away goals from the 15th minute onwards .
• Fiorentina might be dependable if conceding first as they have scored first inonly 8 of 15 matches yet only lost 4 this season, suggesting an ability to equalise and not lose if going behind first.

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230pm - Braunschweig v Hannover - 2.62 home
Standout stats

• a 0-0 when these 2 last met
• this is 18th v 13th and both teams desperately need points. 
• As this is a relegation 6 pointer, I don't think a stats angle will work as this is a needs-must match!
• Can we really trust Braunschweig who have had only 5 wins this season, and Hannover who have had only 4 wins in 22 matches.
• Only 1 defeat in 6 for Braunscheig but 4 score draws
• Hannover have led in their last 2 matches but went on to lose. Both sides could be vulnerable if they take the lead.
• Braunschweig have lost to 10th, 11th, 12th, 14th and 15th at home, without scoring. They play 13th today.
• Hannover have lost to 14th, 15th and 16th away and have scored and conceded in those defeats.
• this should not end 0-0.

Profitable in-play opportunities

• 2.62 odds tells you this could go either way. These teams win infrequently . Braunschwieg have tended to score draw of late so both teams might score, despite Braunschweig tending to lose to nil against teams near hannover's position. Hannover have scored and conceded in defeat too. Both teams have thrown away leads lately. An angle in to 2 very untrustworthy teams!

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330pm - FK Krasnodar v Rostov - 1.77 home
Standout stats

Profitable in-play opportunities




330pm - Roda JC v AZ Alkmaar - 2.36 away
Standout stats

Profitable in-play opportunities




4pm - Elche v Getafe - 2.22 home
Standout stats

Profitable in-play opportunities




4pm - FC Copenhagen v SonderjyskE - 1.5 home
Standout stats

Profitable in-play opportunities




4pm - Gil Vicente v Belenenses - 2.42 home
Standout stats

Profitable in-play opportunities




4pm - Hercules v Girona - 2.16 home
Standout stats

Profitable in-play opportunities




4pm - Moreirense v Leixoes - 1.55 home
Standout stats

Profitable in-play opportunities




4pm - Sporting Gijon v Cordoba - 1.63 home
Standout stats

Profitable in-play opportunities




4pm - Valenciennes v Lyon - 2.74 away
Standout stats

Profitable in-play opportunities

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4pm - West Ham v Liverpool - 1.42 away
Standout stats

• 2-3, 3-1, 2-3 in the last 3 head to heads at West Ham. More recently in 2013, Liverpool drew 0-0 and won 4-1
• this is 11th v 1st and surely Liverpool must take advantage of a possibly mis-firing Chelsea side with a key Champions League distraction mid-week?
• West Ham for their part seem to have done the hard work to ensure they'll be around next year. I'm not sure whether it's a mathematical certainty though

West Ham

• 6 wins in their last 9 matches has come at the right time
• 4 wins at home and a loss to man utd in their last 5 home matches
• as we see with a lot of teams, it's a league of 2 halves. West Ham have lost all bar one at home to the top 10
• They have conceded 3 goals at home to top 5 sides
• 6 0-0's at halftime at home

Liverpool

• 8 consecutive wins scoring 5-3-4-3-3-6-2-4 
• 11 wins and 2 draws in their last 13 matches
• failed to score in only 2 matches
• 24 over 2.5 goals matches in their last 27
• have lost away to 2nd , 3rd, 4th and 14th, the latter looks anomolous
• Outside of the top teams, goalscoring has been consistent away, Liverpool scoring 3-5-3-3-2-5- v 5th-10th inclusive
• have scored in their last 22 matches
• 81% over 2.5 goals away from home
• only 1 0-0 at halftime away from home 
• no 0-0 this season

Profitable in-play opportunities

• the stats seem pretty conclusive. West Ham tend to lose to top 10, they tend to concede 3 at home to top 5 sides.
• Liverpool have no distractions, and are continuing their impressive goal tallies away to 5th-10th in the league. 
• Expect a goal before halftime so lay the 0-0 halftime score lay

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405pm - Raith v Rangers - 1.55 away
Standout stats

Profitable in-play opportunities


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430pm - Hertha Berlin v Hoffenheim - 2.5 home
Standout stats

• both teams have scored and conceded in 4 of the last 5 head to heads 
• this is 10th v 9th

Hertha Berlin

• no win in 6 includes 4 consecutive defeats
• failed to score in 3 of their last 4 matches
• have kept 6 clean sheets only
• have conceded 2-3-2-0-3-3 in their last 6 home matches
• have lost at home to top 5, wins v 6th, 7th 11th 12th at home and a 0-0 v 8th
• 5 0-0's at halftime at home ( 35% of home matches)

Hoffenheim

• you should know this off by heart by now. Goals before halftime, both teams scoring, over 2.5 goals 
• Hoff have conceded in their last 14 away matches
• 89% over 2.5 goals this season
• Total goals away from home - 6-4-5-3-4-4-2-3-5-2-6-4-8-1 ( from top to bottom)

Profitable in-play opportunities

• Hertha are conceding enough to suggest the 2nd best attacking unit in Germany can take advantage! This is all about Hoffenheim keeping this remarkable stats record up. If you still feel confident , then fill yer boots. Lay the 0-0 halftime score, back over 2.5 goals ( over 3.5 goals?), both teams to score.

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5pm - AEL Kalloni v Panthrakikos - 1.3 home
Standout stats

Profitable in-play opportunities




5pm - Apollon Smirnis v Ergotelis - 1.36 home
Standout stats

Profitable in-play opportunities




5pm - Asteras Tripolis v Aris - 1.38 home
Standout stats

Profitable in-play opportunities




5pm - Eupen v Excelsior Virton - 1.26 home
Standout stats

Profitable in-play opportunities

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5pm - Galatasaray v Fenerbahce - 2.28 home
Standout stats

• this derby tends to go the way of the home side historically. galatasary( Gala) have won the last 2 at home, Fenerbahce ( Fener) have won the last 2 at their home ground
• this is 3rd v 1st. Fenerbahce are 10 points clear of galatasary with a game in hand. A win for gala is therefore vital as it will shorten the gap to 7 points.

Galatasary

• only 3 defeats all season, one of which was against Fenerbahce
• have failed to score in their last 3 matches, featuring 2 0-0's 
• 9 wins and a 0-1 win 
• only 1 loss at home was v bottom in the league
• no draw in 10 at home
• no 0-0 at home

Fenerbahce

• 5 wins in their last 6 matches so are the form side coming into this.
• only 4 defeats this season, all away.
• have failed to score in only 2 matches this season
• have kept 3 clean sheets in their last 4 matches
• have not played the top 3 away but lost to 4th, 6th and 8th
• no 0-0 away from home

Profitable in-play opportunities

• Fenerbahce are the form side here, but history points to advantage home side when these 2 meet. So will that be your angle today? Galatasary therefore have to end a run of 3 without scoring though and face a team with 5 wins in their last 6 matches

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5pm - Legia Warsaw v Zawisza Bydgoszcz - 1.65 home
Standout stats

• 3-1 for Zawisza in the last head to head 
• this is 1st v 6th 

Profitable in-play opportunities




5pm - OFI v Xanthi - 1.71 away
Standout stats

Profitable in-play opportunities




5pm - PAOK v Atromitos - 1.87 home
Standout stats

Profitable in-play opportunities




5pm - PAS Giannina v Olympiakos - 1.44 away
Standout stats

Profitable in-play opportunities




5pm - Panathinaikos v Levadiakos - 1.15 home
Standout stats

• Pana lost the last home match v Levadiakos and , like Feyenoord, are priced to return to the 3-0's of previous home matches
• this is 3rd v 10th. 2nd place is within Pana's grasp, and Levadiakos seem safe and not really threatening top places

Panathanaikos ( PANA)

• unbeaten in 9 matches
• have scored 3-4-1-3-3-0 in recent matches, and as with Feyenoord, the numbers 3/4 crop up again for 1.15 shots
• have scored 4-3-3 in their last 3 home matches. Athens expects!
• have failed to score in only 5 matches this season
• 3 clean sheets in their last 4 matches
• 3 defeats for Pana at home have all come v top 7 sides
• Pana have scored in their last 10 home matches
• no 0-0 at home

Levadiakos

• WLWLWLW ( W=Win, L=Loss) in recent matches
• Lost their last 3 away matches
• Conceded 4-4-2 in those 3 away defeats, and yes, the number 4 crops up when 1.15 odds are in town!!
• only 3 clean sheets in 18 matches
• have lost every away match bar a 1-1 v bottom.
• have failed to score in defeat away to top 8
• have conceded 2/3 away to top 6

Profitable in-play opportunities

• 1.15 equalse 3/4 goals minimum and a possible win to nil, and this seems backed up by the stats. levadiakos do not travel without losing!  It all looks clear cut which is great for prospective DRT'ers
• 1.15 normally equals goals before halftime so look out for that despite there being no halftime stats for Greece

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5pm - Platanias v Panaitolikos - 1.22 home
Standout stats

Profitable in-play opportunities




5pm  - Veria v Panionios - 1.2 home
Standout stats

• 
  

Profitable in-play opportunities




6pm - Sevilla v Espanyol - 1.78 home
Standout stats

• 3-3-2-3-3 scored by Sevilla in the last 5 head to heads. Will that continue today?
• this is 5th v 10th

Sevilla

• 6 wins ended with an 87th minute Celta winner last time out.
• Must be confident at home after just beating Real Madrid 2-1
• have failed to score in only 4 matches this season
• have lost 4 home matches, v 1st, 2nd, 8th and 12th.
• 73% over 2.5 goals at home
• 5 0-0's at halftime at home ( 1/3rd of matches)

Espanyol

• on a current pattern of LDWLDW ( L=Loss, D=Draw, W=Win) which has continued with another L
• a feeling Espanyol can keep it tight away. Recently they have conceded 2-1-0-0-1 away from home. Espanyol only lost 1-0 to 1st and 2nd away from home, beat 4th 1-2 and lost to 7th and 8th
• 6 0-0's at halftime away

Profitable in-play opportunities

• Sevilla are clear in head to heads, and have been in superb winning form. Espanyol are one of those worrisome teams for traders - the unpredictable - winning, drawing and losing in recent matches!  They keep things tight v the big teams away. Will that continue?

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6pm - Slovacko v Sparta Prague - 1.86 away
Standout stats

Profitable in-play opportunities

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715pm - Porto v Academica - 1.29 home
Standout stats

• Academica won the last head to head 1-0 but it's usually Porto who hold sway
• this is 3rd v 7th and 3rd is the best Porto can hope for

Porto

• only 2 wins in 6 and this is not your usual Porto
• they have won 6 of their last 7 home matches
• At home, Porto have only lost one match 0-1 v 4th.
• Against 6th and lower, they have won all matches and conceded only 1 goal
• 5 0-0's at halftime at home
• have scored 27 and conceded just 4 goals at home

Academica

• only 2 wins in 9 matches
• have kept 4 0-0's in those 9 matches so perhaps a 0-0 insurance bet pre-match?
• have failed to score in 6 of their last 9 matches
• have not beaten top 4 away from home
• failed to score against 1st and 2nd away, but a 0-0 v 2nd

Profitable in-play opportunities

• a reasonable chance of a win to nil for Porto today but a 0-0 is a threat. If 0-0 is a big price, back it pre-match as insurance.

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745pm - Parma v Napoli - 2.38 away
Standout stats

• 
  

Profitable in-play opportunities




8pm - Chivas USA v Los Angeles - 1.6 away
Standout stats

Profitable in-play opportunities

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8pm - Monaco v Nantes - 1.45 home
Standout stats

• only 1 head to head of relevance was a 0-1 70th minute Monaco win this season
• this is 2nd v 14th - Monaco are not out of the title and PSG may be distracted this weekend? nantes are 8 points clear of the relegation zone currently

Monaco

• only 4 defeats all season and lost their last match. Will they really lose 2 consecutive matches?
• have failed to score in only 4 matches this season, indeed they failed to score in their last match. As above, will they really go another match without scoring?
• only 1 loss at home, came v 18th .
• have scored in their last 13 home matches
• only 2 0-0's at halftime at home
• only 1 0-0 all season
• scored first in 11 of their 15 home matches

Nantes

• unbeaten in 4 matches but 3 draws only , 2 of which were 0-0.
• nantes have failed to score in their last 6 away matches and have had 2 0-0's in their last 3 away matches
• have not beaten any of the top 5 home or away this season. Failed to score away to 1st, 3rd and 4th 
• 6 0-0's at halftime away

Profitable in-play opportunities

• We have a sequence here. A small but significant one. Monaco lost their last match without scoring. They have only lost 4 all seaon and only failed to score in 4 all season. Will they really lose another match without scoring?
• nantes away from home have trouble against the top 5 and there is no reason to expect different today, particularly as they have had trouble scoring away from home
• Favour Monaco today therefore, no Champions League distractions and praying PSG do not win today.

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8pm - Valladolid v Valencia - 2.56 away
Standout stats

Profitable in-play opportunities