footballtradingresearch: November 2013

Thursday, 28 November 2013

friday, saturday and sunday

SUNDAY 1st DECEMBER 2013

PRICES FROM BOOKMAKERS ( ladbrokes)

930am - Terek Grozny V Zenit St Petersburg - 1.45 away

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Profitable in play opportunities

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11am - Real Betis v Rayo Vallecano - 1.95 home

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1130am - Catania v Milan - 1.83 away
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1130am - ADO Den Haag V Ajax - 1.45 away

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12pm - Tottenham v Manchester Utd - 2.62 home and away
A rocky Tottenham face another Manchester side who themselves dished out a 5-0 away win against Leverkusen.
These high profile matches are usually tough to trade because invariably it is 'best on the day'.

Standout stats

This is a match between 9th and 6th, separated by a single point. I do not see that head to heads will have much relevance as the United management change is so significant
Tottenham keep clean sheets in victory at home. 2 1-0 wins against Swansea and Hull are wholly unconvincing.
Against better sides at home, Tottenham have drawn 1-1 with Chelsea and lost 0-1 to Newcastle.
Tottenham's performance overall against teams above them is poor, 3 defeats without scoring and a 1-1 and 0-0.
Tottenham have failed to score in their last 3 matches and and their recent goalscoring record tells us Soldado is not earning his wages 1-1-0-2-1-0-0-0 scored recently.
Tottenham have conceded only 1 goal in the first half at home.
Both sides have had a single 0-0 this season.
Manchester United's only away defeats have come via top 4 sides. They are unbeaten in their last 3 away matches winning 2 and they should have won away at Cardiff. In each of these , 2 goals or more were scored.
This forms part of a run of 6 unbeaten for United, and they have picked up an unwelcome Everton trait. UNited have scored and conceded in 7 of their last 8 matches/
United are a great team for laying 0-0 in the halftime score market, but will Tottenham's real defensive bent put paid to that?
United have now scored in their last 9 matches but might be missing Robin Van Persie ( how this ex Arsenal man would love to rub it in at White hart lane!)
83% of United's away matches are over 2.5 goals.
It's about 50/50 who'll score first in this match which makes it a good one for a potential DRT trade.

Profitable in play opportunities

I fear for Tottenham without a Jurgen Klinsmann type of forward - reliable and consistent ( and a good diver). They have failed to score in their last 3 matches and only really scored a maximum of 1 in recent matches. This means they must keep a clean sheet to progress.
Tottenham's set up against the big teams is obvious this season. Keep it tight, yet again, and hope for the best, but still they have been unable to score more than 1 resulting in a best case 1-1/
Manchester United have lost to top 4 away this season and they have scored 2 in each of their last 3 away matches. UNited's scoring in their last 9 games is good news for them and bad news for Tottenham.
At 2.62, Tottenham look distinctly layable , particularly if they score first ( might employ a 1-0 insurance given their defensive bent)
United have scored and conceded in 7 of their last 8 matches and are obviously the team with the greater momentum.
It's 50/50 stats wise who scores first, so be at the ready.
This might not be a good match for 0-0 halftime score lay ( it would be if based solely on Manchester United's record)

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12pm - Slavia Sofia V Botev Plovdiv - 1.6 away

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1230pm - Greuther Furth v Cottbus - 1.57 home

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1pm - Bordeaux v Ajaccio - 1.5 home

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130pm - Feyenoord V PSV Eindhoven - 2.15 home

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130pm - Vitesse V Cambuur - 1.36 home

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130pm - Maribor V Zavrc - 1.45 home

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130pm - Trabzonspor V Erciyesspor - 1.7 home

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130pm - Lierse V Standard Liege - 1.5 away

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2pm - Atalanta v Roma - 1.85 away

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This is 10th v 2nd. Roma have now got a case of draw-itis
Atalanta have only had one draw all season, a 1-1. Enough to hope for an end to the Roma draws?
Atalanta are far better at home, losing only 1 but away they have lost 6.
Atalanta have only dropped points at home to 4th and 5th -significant?
Atalanta have failed to score in only 1 home match, a 0-2 loss to Fiorentina.
Atalanta have had only 3 clean sheets all season and have conceded in the last 6.
Atalanta have scored in their last 4 home matches.
Roma are unbeaten, but are now on a 3 match draw sequence. Their last match is the only one in which they failed to score.
Roma have had clean sheets in all bar those 2 1-1 draws in their last 3 matches.
Roma have scored in all aways.
Roma have not conceded away in the first half hour of matches.
Roma tend to score first away from home.

Profitable in play opportunities

Roma are ending sequences in recent matches. A winning sequence ends, a scoring sequence ends. What will end next? The draw sequence?
Note Atalanta are far stronger at home but is it significant that their sole draw and loss came against 4th and 5th?
Will Roma continue to score in away matches?
Roma have struggled away to 11th and 12th 0-1 and 1-1.Will that continue against 10th?

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2pm - Inter v Sampdoria - 1.4 home
Inter Milan have been quietly getting on with it this season, and have been grossly underestimated by bookmakers in a few matches this season. Not this match it seems.

Standout stats

Inter have scored 2 at least in the last 3 head to heads, winning them all. At Inter though, DDW ( D=Draw and W=Win) sees Sampdoria historically competitive.
This is a match between 4th and 18th. Inter Milan are bang in the title race. Sampdoria are bang in trouble
Inter have only lost one match this season, at home to Roma.
Inter have only dropped points at home to 1st and 2nd They have scored at least 2 goals in their 4 wins.
Inter are yet to play the bottom 4 at home.
Sampdoria have only 2 wins this season and have lost all matches home and away against the top 7 ( 5 matches, scoring a single goal).
Sampdoria have only kept one clean sheet this season and have scored in 6 of their last 7.
Sampdoria have conceded in their last 6 away matches.

Profitable in play opportunities

Inter Milan seem likely to score 2 goals today. Sampdoria seem likely to concede ( only 1 clean sheet) so a 0-0 is a shock scoreline late on.
If we go by Inter alone laying 0-0 halftime score is a good option but in Sampdoria we have a side who have collected a few 0-0's at halftime.
There is nothing here to relay a potential shock. Let's just hope that Sampdoria score first or it is 0-0 late on. Yesterday we backed 1-2 Dortmund at halftime. If 0-0 in this match, I feel there is leverage in a similar tactic.

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2pm - Dinamo Zagreb V Hajduk Split - 1.65 home

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Profitable in play opportunities

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205pm - Hull v Liverpool - 1.61 away
No Daniel Sturridge a big miss, but they do have a certain Suarez.

Standout stats

there are no head to heads of relevance.
this is a match between 13th and 2nd and is a must win for Liverpool in order to keep tabs on Arsenal , 7 points ahead of them
Hull have only 4 wins this season, 3 of them an unconvincing 1-0 but all at home. Perhaps 1-0 is a pre match insurance bet?
Note Hull have not played top 9 teams yet at home so their patterns may not repeat against the better teams. The current home pattern is for 1-0's ( 4 of them) with a 0-0 and a 1-1 added into the mix. It remains to be seen, as I say, how they perform against the top top teams.
I suppose we can get a glimpse of that with Hull's away form which has been exclusively against top 9, where they have lost 5 and beat Newcastle 2-3
Hull have conceded only 2 at home so far but remember who they have ( or haven't ) played
Liverpool have only lost to Southampton and Arsenal this season, both without scoring, but I doubt the Hull defence is as accomplished as those 2 sides'.
Beware Hull. Liverpool have goals in them -3-3-2-4-0-4-3 but that was with Sturridge.
Liverpool have scored in all away matches bar the Arsenal loss.
Sturridge has scored 5 away goals for Liverpool so he is an obvious miss.

Profitable in play opportunities

Hull's reasonable form at home must be put into context. They are yet to play top 9 at home. Away they have met top 9 and conceded 2+
Liverpool are without Sturridge but Suarez could have a good time against lesser lights. It is a tough match to get a handle into but the assumption is that Hull at home will get an unflattering introduction to the real Premiership and their home form will start to dip once introduced to more top 9 sides.
Speculative Suarez hatrick today?

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230pm - Spartak Moscow V Volga Novgorod - 1.28 home
This short priced home team is worth looking at.

Standout stats

Spartak Moscow are unbeaten in head to heads with 4 wins and a draw in the league. The most recent head to heads were a 1-1 draw and a 0-1 Spartak win
This is between 3rd and 11th. Spartak could go top ( joint top) with a win.
Spartak have lost only 4 this season, 3 of them away matches. They have lost 2 of their last 3 matches.
Spartak have only lost one home match against 2nd.
Apart from the 2 0-0's, Spartak tend to score 2+ goals and are priced to do so today.
They have scored 2 and 4 in their last 2 home matches.
A look at Volga's matches this season, and it's inconsistency which springs to mind.
Their last 4 wins were home wins so they are vulnerable away from home.
Volga have lost away matches against 6th, 8th and 9th without scoring. They have conceded 3-4 goals in those defeats.
8 matches have been played against top 8 teams home and away and Volga have lost 7 and drawn 1 2-2.

Profitable in play opportunities

Spartak to score 2 or more. Volga look vulnerable to the top sides overall and away from home have failed to score and conceded 3 at least against 6th, 8th and 9th.
Spartak have lost 2 of their last 3 matches -is that a cause for concern? At home they have only lost to 2nd.
If Spartak are losing at any stage there is a hope that they will be motivated ( to go top) to fight back
Over 2.5 goals is the resounding trend for both sides.

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3pm - Hearts v Celtic - 1.33 away
This is a Scottish Cup match

Standout stats

5 consecutive Premier League wins for Celtic against Hearts and in those matches they have scored 5-1-4-4-3 goals.
Hearts have actually beaten Celtic in this cup, 1-2 in April 2012. Hearts only loss in 8 Cup matches seems to have been a second leg 1-0 loss having already won 1-5 in the 1st leg. Hearts seem up for the cup.
Hearts have had 2 consecutive home draws in the cup, and their only recent defeats were 0-1
Celtic's only defeat in their last 7 cup games was that loss to Hearts.
Celtic have scored 3-2-3-3 in their last 4 away cup matches.

Profitable in play opportunities

faith in the odds here? Obviously both sides are "up for the cup"? Not much else to go on.

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330pm - Salzburg V Josko Ried - 1.25 home

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330pm - NEC Nijmegen V AZ Alkmaar - 1.85 away

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4pm - Granada CF v Sevilla - 2.5 away

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4pm - Sporting Gijón V Alcorcón - 1.61 home

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4pm - Nacional Madeira V Vitoria Setubal - 1.75 home

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410pm - Chelsea v Southampton ( Saints)- 1.53 home

Standout stats

Who'd have thought that this could be a top 5 clash?
There have been 3 2013 meetings, 1-5 Chelsea win in the cup, 2-2 home draw Chelsea, and 2-1 Southampton home win.
Chelsea remain unbeaten at home, and consistently scoring 2 minimum. They have played one of the top 5 at home, beating Manchester City 2-1.
Chelsea have scored 2 goals in 5 of their last 6 matches resulting in 5 over 2.5 goals matches out of their last 6.
Chelsea have failed to score in 3 this season, all away matches.
Chelsea have scored 5 goals at home in their last 1/4 hour of matches.
Chelsea tend to score first at home and no opponent has led at halftime at Stamford Bridge.
Both sides have had a single 0-0 this season.
Southampton have had only 1 over 2.5 goals match this season, a home 4-1 win v Hull.Away from home, 2 scorelines dominate, 1-0 or 1-1.
Only one team has scored 2 goals against Saints this season and that was Arsenal in a 2-0 away defeat.
Do note that despite apparent defensive soundness, Saints have conceded in their last 3 away matches.
Saints have only scored 4 away matches and only 1 in the first half away, so for all their defensive strengths, they are not taking advantage at the other end.
Saints have never led at halftime away from home.

Profitable in play opportunities

This is a clash between a team consistently scoring 2 goals minimum v a team who have only conceded 2 goals in 1 match this season. Intriguing!
I would side with Saints defensive solidity early on. Only one over 2.5 goals match all season could suggest a 0-0 pre match back?
If Saints contrive to lead in the first half, lay them in the Halftime market.
Could both teams eventually score as they have done in head to heads?

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410pm - Manchester City v Swansea - 1.28 home
Manchester City have goals in abundance- will they inflict another heavy loss on another team? Swansea are missing key personnel such as Michu

Standout stats

The last 3 Premiership meetings are interesting, 1-0 Swansea, 1-0 City and 0-0.
This is a match between 6th and 11th and what really stands out is the +22 goal difference column for Man City.
What do you do against a team who have scored 13 goals in their last 2 home matches without conceding?
City have won all home matches and have only failed to score 3 goals or more in one match .City have also managed 4 clean sheets at home
Home matches are vital for Man City as they are terrible away from home.
With so many goals flowing, 0-0 halftime score laying looks an obvious punt.
83% of Man City's home matches have been over 3.5 goals.
City have scored 13 in both halves at home and conceded only 2.
Aguero is a vital player at home, scoring 7 City goals.
Swansea have scored 2 goals in their 3 away wins this season against West Brom, Crystal Palace and Fulham.
Swansea are yet to draw away and they have lost their 2 matches against top 9 sides away this season.
Swansea's overall record against the top 10 is poor, 4 defeats and a 2-2 draw.

Profitable in play opportunities

Goals look an obvious call today for Manchester City but do we take those tight head to heads as signalling something else? Head to heads have it as 1-0 maximum, recent form has it as possible 6 City goals.
Swansea have a poor record against the top 10 so if they score first, they are layable. Man City seem more reliable at home, thankfully they are not playing away from home today!
Logic says lay the 0-0 halftime score as late as possible in the first half.

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430pm - Borussia Mönchengladbach v Freiburg - 1.44 home

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5pm - Podbeskidzie Bielsko-Biala V Legia Warsaw - 1.57 away

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5pm - Kasimpasa V Galatasaray - 2.4 away

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5pm - Anderlecht V Cercle Brugge - 1.22 home
Anderlecht at home are usually very reliable so if they get in trouble we'll be in DRT territory

Standout stats

Anderlecht have been consistent goalscorers in recent head to heads, scoring 4-3-2-4.
Anderlecht have kept 6 clean sheets in their last 7 head to heads.
This is a match between 5th and 9th. Yes Anderlecht are 5th which is a poor showing for such a club.
A good starting point? Anderlecht have only 1 draw all season. 4 of Anderlecht's 5 defeats have come against 7th and higher.
Wins have come against 8th and lower and , well, Cercle Brugge are 9th.
When Anderlecht win at home , they do so with 3+ goals.
Anderlecht have scored in their last 6 matches
Anderlecht have failed to score in their last 2 matches.
63% of Anderlecht's matches are over 3.5 goals.
Neither side have had a 0-0 this season.
Cercle Brugge lost 0-4 to Anderlecht on the 2nd match of the season.
They are unbeaten in their last 3 away matches but note that they are against 11th and lower.
Cercle have lost away to 4th and 6th without scoring.
Cercle are on a decent enough run, only 1 defeat in 7 matches . They have , though, only kept 3 clean sheets all season

Profitable in play opportunities

A 0-4 win already this season should be compelling enough. Indeed Cercle have played 2 other top 6 sides away and lost both matches.
If you expect Anderlecht to win, it will be by 3 goals +

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530pm - Juventus v Udinese - 1.33 home
The Old Lady have been in great form this season.

Standout stats

Juventus have won all head to heads since 2012 and scored 4 goals in each of the last 2 meetings.
This is a match between 1st and 11th. Roma are hot on Juve's tails but Roma's habit of drawing of late should be exploited by a Juventus team who must win when presented with a chance of winning.
Juventus have lost only one match this season and they were actually 0-2 up in that match.
3 consecutive home clean sheets and scoring 2-4-3 sees Juventus in rude health at both ends of the pitch.
Juventus have scored 2 or more in all home matches this season
Juventus have not had a draw in 10 matches, have scored in their last 13 matches and have won their last 6 home matches.
Juventus have scored 10 first half goals and 8 2nd half goals. Watching them in TV, they tend to dominate and eventually score that 1st half goall. It may be worth delaying entry into the halftime 0-0 score market and laying at as low odds as you can get.
No opponent has won at halftime at Juventus
Neither side has had a 0-0 this season.
5 defeats and a single win away for Udinese is in stark contrast.
Udinese have failed to score in 4 of their last 6 matches which is a worry.
Udinese did buck a trend last match by winning 1-0 at home to free-scoring Fiorentina.
Udinese are yet to meet the current top 7 away from home.
They have lost 0-1 and 0-3 to top 4 teams at home.
Like Juventus , Udinese have not had a draw in their last 10 matches.
Udinese have conceded 8 away goals in the first half this season

Profitable in play opportunities

What looks obvious based on the stats is that the 0-0 halftime score lay might be on, thanks to Juventus first half scoring and Udinese's appalling 1st half concessions.
Juventus tend to score 2 goals at least at home.
Slight concern. Udinese have not met the current top 7 away from home so we cannot really gauge performance against the big boys away this season.
3 consecutive home clean sheets plays a Udinese who have failed to score in 4 of their last 6 matches.

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530pm - Olympiacos V Ergotelis - 1.15 home

My good DRT friends Olympiakos are yet again 1.15 shots. This is a reliable team , able to extricate themselves from trouble should they find themselves conceding at any stage.

Standout stats

Olympiakos have scored 2-3-3-3 in the last 4 head to heads.
The last 2 head to heads at Olympiakos were 3-0 wins.
This is 1st v 9th.
Olympiakos are unbeaten this season with only 1 defeat.
At home Olympiakos have scored 4 goals or more in 4 of their 5 home matches.
Ergotelis have had a good start to the season but in their last 4 matches, have lost 3. Ergotelis suffer from draws away from home. Against the top 8, Ergotelis have lost to 2nd and drawn with 3rd, 7th and 8th .
Ergotelis conceded 2 goals against 2nd and 3rd away

Profitable in play opportunities

3 goals minimum is the ideal for Olympiakos, and there's a possibility of a win to nil.

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545pm - Rio Ave V Benfica - 1.55 away
With Porto losing last night, this is a great opportunity for Benfica.

Standout stats

Benfica are unbeaten in head to heads and have won 5 of the last 6. WWDW ( W=Win and D=Draw) when benfica visit Rio Ave.
This is 10th v 3rd and Benfica go top with a win.

Only 2 wins for Rio Ave in 8 matches sees them in poor form.
Their wins recently, 2 away wins were both 0-1.
Only 2 matches for Rio have been under 2.5 goals.
Rio Ave have failed to score in 5 of their last 8 matches.
Rio Ave have failed to score in their last 4 matches at home.
Benfica have lost only 1 match this season, their first match.
DWWW ( D=Draw, W=Win), away from home for Benfica.
Benfica are undefeated in 9 overall and have scored in their last 10 overall.
Benfica have kept 3 clean sheets in their last 3 matches.

Profitable in play opportunities

This looks like an ideal opportunity for Benfica against a Rio Ave side who simply cannot score at home of late.
Benfica could score 2 or 3 playing their best today.

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6pm - Valencia v Osasuna - 1.5 home

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Profitable in play opportunities

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6pm - Rapid Vienna V Wacker Innsbruck - 1.36 home

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6pm - Viktoria Plzen V Pribram - 1.2 home

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7pm - Vasco da Gama V Náutico - 1.25 home

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7pm - Steaua Bucharest V Petrolul Ploiesti - 1.6 home

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730pm - Genk V OH Leuven - 1.3 home

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745pm - Sporting Lisbon V Pacos Ferreira - 1.4 home

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8pm - Athletic Bilbao v Barcelona - 1.57 away
That's a reasonable price for Barcelona but it's a price which surely tells a story?

Standout stats

Barcelona have scored at least 2 goals against Bilbao in their last 6 head to heads. There have been 2 2-2 draws, most recently in the last head to head.
This is a match between 5th and 1st. Atl Madrid are on the same points as Barcelona so each match is its usual must-win.
Bilbao are unbeaten at home and have scored 2 goals in 6 of their 7 matches. Perhaps telling is the away form, losses to the 2 Madrids.
Bilbao beat 4th 2-0 at home but they are yet to play the top 3.
Bilbao have failed to score in only 1 match this season, the same as Barcelona.
Only 3 clean sheets for Bilbao suggests both teams more likely to score in a match
Bilbao have scored 9 goals in the last 1/2 hour of matches at home
Opponents are more likely to score first at Bilbao home matches.
Barcelona have won all matches they have scored in ( all bar 1)
Barcelona are yet to play the current top 9 this season ( Bilbao are 5th) away from home so this might not be as easier as earlier assignments.
Barcelona score about the same 1st half as 2nd half.

Profitable in play opportunities

Tough to read Barcelona given they have not met the top 9 away from home this season. Head to heads suggest they are in for a toughie against a Bilbao side capable of scoring 2 goals against Barcelona.
Bilbao could score first in which case it would be a nice DRT.
Barcelona this season tend to score 2 minimum, but again I remind you away they have not played top 9 away.
Both sides are likely to score.
If it's a quiet first half, expect some 2nd half goal action.

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8pm - PSG v Lyon - 1.33 home
PSG continue their dominance in France thanks largely to the dependable Cavani and Ibrahimovic

Standout stats

The last 2 meetings have seen 2 PSG 1-0 wins. The odds suggest it will not be as tight today.
This is 1st v 8th and the front 3 in France are quite closely packed . This should keep PSG honest.
PSG are one a few teams in Europe clinging on to an unbeaten record. Porto lost theirs last night.
All PSG home wins have seen them scoring 2+. 2 score draws have been 1-1 v 3rd and 19th
PSG have scored in all matches this season, including late late goals which are DRT'ers benefits.
PSG scored about the same in both halves at home.
Ibahimovic and Cavani together have scored 13 goals at home, so if either of these players are absent it might disadvantage PSG
PSG's last 10 matches have seen at least 1 goal scored before halftime.
PSG have scored 2-2-4-2-4-3-3 in their last 7 matches.
4 away losses for Lyon have been bookended by 2 wins.
Lyon have scored and conceded in all away matches. They have lost to 3rd but beaten 5th away from home. They may yet score today?
Lyon have scored and conceded in 7 of their last 9 matches.
Lyon have scored 5 goals directly after halftime away.

Profitable in play opportunities

What do we make of the 2 1-0 head to head results. They are certainly not hinted at with this season's form and I suppose the addition of 2 world class strikers for PSG where perhaps there weren't any in previous encounters.
PSG remain unbeaten this season and that is priced to continue.
A speculative halftime score 0-0 lay looks logical given the home team's scoring record.
PSG have scored 3 or more in 4 of their last 5 matches. If you think that will continue this match, then over 4.5 goals is a considered punt?.
Lyon have scored and conceded in a 100% over 2.5 goals away record so look perhaps for a goal from them.

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Thursday, 21 November 2013

FRIDAY and SATURDAY

SATURDAY

Already it's began. The curse of the league match before the Champions League match ( I can't think of anything more catchy). Zenit St Petersburg lost 0-2 last night in a match they should have easily won. They left some players on the bench who would normally make the first team.
Please ensure you factor in any Champions League team this weekend. Note that Manchester City and Arsenal were extremely effective last time in the Premiership , when they had their corresponding Champions League match.

12pm - FC Koln v Ingolstadt - 1.46 home

12pm - Kaiserslautern v Union Berlin - 1.66 home

1pm - Lens v Chateauroux - 1.6 home

1pm - Slovakia (W) v Germany (W) - 1.01 away - you know the drill by now. An almost unbackable team should really score 6 goals minimum. England u21 recently scored 9 goals, and Spain Women scored 13 when unbackable odds.

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2pm - Coventry v Tranmere - 1.59 home As this is a 2pm start, and I will be starting my live chat then, let's take a look at this league one match - League one I would normally leave alone on a day where there are far more reliable leagues.
Standout stats

Tranmere won at home in September 2012 and Coventry won at home 1-0 in 2013.
This is between 12th and 21st in League One.
Coventry have scored 3 in their last 3 home matches. They have scored 5 at home against 19th, and 3 against 23rd and 24th. Today they play 21st.
On only one occasion at home have Coventry failed to score 2 or more goals.
Coventry have not had a draw in 6 home matches. They have scored in their last 7 matches overall and are undefeated in 7.
Coventry perform very well against the bottom half of the table.
Coventry seem rather lackse in the last 1/2 hour of matches, conceding 10 goals at home.
Coventry have scored first in 6 of their 8 home matches.
The opponent is highly unlikely to lead at halftime at Coventry.
Both sides have only had a single 0-0 this season. 0-0 as a haftime score lay might be scuppered by Tranmere who have had 4 away from home.
Tranmere's 2 away wins this season have been 0-1. They have had 3 1-1 scorelines in their last 4 matches, 2 of those 1-1's came away from home.
Perhaps prominent are the Tranmere defeats, 6 , which have all come against top 10 teams. BUT recently they beat 11th at home and drew away v 9th, so this might not be as straightforward as the odds suggest.
Tranmere have scored and conceded in their last 4 matches.
Tranmere have never led at halftime away from home, and have had 4 0-0's/

Profitable in play opportunities

This is not a match I personally am comfortable with. Tranmere have hit a bit of form and have positive results against teams near Coventry's in the league.
I do acknowledge Coventry's ability recently to score 3 goals consistently, perhaps that is the reason for their short odds?
This is what you get I'm afraid when a league is not a regular in my football world - the unknown!

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2pm - Shakhtar v Sevastopol - 1.09 home
Shakhtar are another of those Champions League alert teams. I alert you to them because Shakhtar lost their last league match before a Champions League match. We must factor this in today.
Standout stats

It's always a good sign when a team wins all 6 head to heads, doubly so when they scored6-5-1-4-3 in the last 5.
This is a match between 1st and 10th. Shakhtar must win as they are holding on to 1st place by the skin of their teeth.
Shakhtar's 3 defeats this season have all come away from home, and their last defeat was a shock 2-0 loss just before a Champions League match ( they play Sociedad on 27th November).
Shakhtar are a lot stronger at home, with all wins bar a 1-1 draw. Shakhtar have scored 14 goals in their last 3 home matches and conceded none.
6 of Shakhtar's 7 home wins were to nil.
Shakhtar only failed to score in 1 match this season.
Neither side has had a 0-0 this season.
Sevastapol are very hit and miss, with 4 defeats in their last 6 matches.
Sevastapol only have 1 away win this season, and more significantly have lost 4 and drawn 1 against top 7 sides, conceding 2 or 3 on each occasion. They have only had 2 clean sheets this season.
Sevastapol have conceded in their last 8 matches.

Profitable in play opportunities

This all looks rather straightforward. Shakhtar look likely to score 2/3 goals minimum today, and have done so in head to heads, at home recently, and against teams around Sevastapol's. Similarly, Sevastapol have conceded 2/3 goals against top 7 sides away from home.
Champions League Alert League matches before Champions League matches can lead to shocks.

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3pm - Arsenal v Southampton ( saints) - 1.66 home
Is this a match of attack v defence. Southampton have a growing reputation for being tough to beat. Will Arsenal's international crew ( lots of French men) be emotionally drained. I don't know but I do know the stats.
Standout stats

2012 saw a famous 6-1 win for Arsenal, and 2013 saw a tight 1-1 which is the current reputation Southampton have.
Who'd have thought? This is 1st v 3rd in the league. Saints could go top with a win.
Arsenal have lost only 2 this season, v Aston Villa in the first and Man Utd away in the last match.
At home, Arsenal have won 4 and lost just one. They have therefore not drawn at home.
Arsenal have kept clean sheets against 2nd and 7th and that might be their tactic against the teams higher in the league.
Arsenal have only kept 3 clean sheets all season. They only failed to score against United this season.
Arsenal have scored 2+ goals in 8 league matches this season.
Arsenal have scored first in all home matches and no opponent has led at halftime at the Emirates.
Arsenal have not had a 0-0 this season but Saints have had 3 0-0's away from home.
Saints have lost only one match , a 1-0 v Norwich away.
All under 2.5 goals matches for Saints away from home. Is the 0-1 win they managed against Liverpool something they can replicate at Arsenal?
Saints are undefeated in 8 away matches and have scored in their last 7 away matches.
Saints have conceded in 3 of their last 4 matches. An air of vulnerability?
Saints have only led at halftime away in 1 match.

Profitable in play opportunities

If Saints are leading at halftime, lay them in the halftime market .
There is a chance for the speculator for under 2.5 goals today. This seems to be the Saints modus operandi away from home, but do note they have conceded in 3 of their last 4 matches - vulnerable?
If Arsenal are to win, you feel they will score 2 as they have done in 8 matches this season.
Arsenal's international personnel , especially the frenchmen, might be emotionally drained from mid week excersions?
Champions League Alert Arsenal were one of the few teams who did not fluff their lines in their Premier League match directly before a Champions League match, not only that, but their opponents were Liverpool and they beat them 2-0!

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3pm - Barcelona v Granada - 1.17 home. It is very interesting to see Barcelona kick off at 3pm, perhaps because their international fan base can watch them without staying up too late in their time zone.
Barcelona are an A-grade DRT
Standout stats

5-3 and 2-0 to Barcelona at home in head to heads, and 1-2 in the last meeting. Without Messi for Barcelona, will they be in trouble or will Sanchez et al compensate.
This is 1st v 8th, and Madrid are hot on Barcelona's tails, Atletico Madrid that it.
A perfect record for Barcelona ended with a 0-0 against Osasuna.
Messi has not scored in 6 matches, so when he returns to Barcelona action, back him.
A Messi-less barcelona were mercyless in a 1-4 win over Betis last match.
Barcelona have conceded in 4 of their 6 home matches.
Barcelona have scored 9 goals in the first half hour at home.
Barcelona tend to score first at home and don't lose in the first half at home.
Granada have only lost 1 away match, their only away match v top 9 teams. Significant?
Granada have not had a draw in 8 matches.
Granada have won their last 2 away matches 0-1 - those matches were against teams outside the top 10.

Profitable in play opportunities

Barcelona without Messi scored 4 in their last match and that was away from home. It is always though tough to rely on a Messi-less Barcelona.
Note the Spanish side have played 2 friendlies against African opponents this past week. And Barcelona pretty much equal Spain.
Head to heads against Granada tend to see Barcelona score 2 maximum. This could be a tricky affair for Barcelona which could equal some nice DRT opportunities.
Champions League alert

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3pm - Celtic v Aberdeen - 1.46 home
This is 1st against 3rd in the SPL and Aberdeen are 7 points behind Celtic.
Standout stats

Celtic have won the last 4 home head to heads and 5 of the last 6 meetings.
Celtic are unbeaten this season but have drawn 2 of their last 4 matches.
In Celtic's 2 recent 1-1 draws, their opponents scored first, so if Aberdeen score first today, then LAY ABERDEEN rather than back Celtic.
Celtic have conceded in all bar 1 home match and have scored and conceded in their last 4 matches.
Celtic seem to be a good side with which to lay the 0-0 Halftime score.
Celtic have scored in all matches.
Celtic have only conceded one goal in the 2nd half in home matches.
The opposition have actually scored first in 3 of Celtic's 5 home matches making them a cracking DRT team ( as they are unbeaten this season).
Aberdeen have lost 4 matches this season, once to Celtic, twice to Hearts and once to Ross County - it's a select group but today's opponents are there!
2 of Aberdeen's 3 away wins have been to nil.
Aberdeen have kept 3 clean sheets in their last 4. Could Celtic find them tough to beat ( and note a number of Celtic personnel have been travelling around the globe on international duty playing in African play offs, and European play offs.
Aberdeen have collected 5 0-0's at halftime in their last 7 ( but none in their last 2 matches).
Aberdeen have failed to score in 3 matches this season, but note they failed to score against Celtic.
Aberdeen have scored 8 away goals in the last 1/2 hour of matches.
These 2 teams have only had 1 0-0 all season.

Profitable in play opportunities

Celtic are a great drt team. They have conceded first in 3 home matches yet they are unbeaten this season.
If Aberdeen score first, lay Celtic rather than back Celtic. Celtic's last 2 1-1's saw them concede first.
Aberdeen might be tough to break down. They have kept 3 clean sheets in their last 4
I would lay 0-0 halftime score as late as possible in this match.
2-0 to Celtic could be on the cards, if they managed that scoreline away from home.
Champions League alert Celtic only drew in their last league match before a Champions League match.

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3pm - Chesterfield v Wycombe - 1.7 home

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3pm - Newcastle v Norwich - 1.8 home
Newcastle find themselves odds on, this is a rarity this season, but their recent scalps I'm sure have had some punters ( yours truly) sit up and take note.
Standout stats

The last 3 meetings have seen Norwich unable to score, and after Newcastle's shut outs of Spurs and Chelsea, a 4th would not be beyond the realms of possibility
This is a match between 9th and 15th and conceivably Newcastle could go above Manchester City and equal with Manchester United, with a win.
Draw, Win, Loss, Draw Win - that's the current sequence at home for Newcastle.
Newcastle have scored 2 goals in their last 3 home matches. They actually scored 2 goals in 7 consecutive matches before their 1-0 win against Tottenham
Newcastle have maintained a rather cautious approach against bottom sides. at home they drew 0-0 with West Ham United and beat Fulham 1-0. Note the clean sheets.
Newcastle have scored in their last 9 matches, and last 4 at home.
Newcastle have scored first in 4 of their 5 home matches this season and no opponent has led at halftime at Newcastle.
Remy is the oustanding goalscorer, if he is missing from the team, Newcastle will be at an extreme disadvantage.
4 defeats and a win away for Norwich this season.
Norwich failed to score in 3 of their 4 away defeats.
Only 3 wins for Norwich all season, 2 of which were 1-0.
Norwich have only scored in 2 away matches this season.

Profitable in play opportunities

Newcastle recently shut out Chelsea and Spurs, and they have shut out Norwich in their last 3 head to heads.
Newcastle tend to score first at home and no opponent leads at halftime. So if Norwich score first and lead in the first half, I would lay them in the halftime market.
Newcastle tend to score goals so faith in them bagging at least one, and if they feel like it 2 goals as they have scored 2 with great frequency.

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3pm - Peterborough v Stevenage - 1.62 home

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3pm - Preston v Colchester - 1.68 home

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3pm - QPR v Charlton - 1.68 home
I have been following QPR with interest this season as they seem to be a reliable betting medium
Standout stats

This is a match between 3rd and 20th.QPR could conceivably go top with a win today/
QPR have lost only 1 match this season.6 wins and a sole draw at home for QPR.
Against teams 19th and below, QPR have won 1-0, 2-1 and 2-0 at home.
QPR are going through a rough ride of only 1 win in 5 matches. 4 of those matches were away from home.
QPR are on a 3 match home winning streak.
QPR have only conceded 2 goals at home.
QPR have scored first in 5 of their 7 home matches.
No opponent has led at halftime at home.
Charlton have only 2 wins away, both 0-1 Both wins came in their last 2 away matches. A 0-1 saver today?
Charlton seem to have had a concerted effort to be stronger in defence with 1-1, 0-0, 0-1, 0-0, 0-1 then suddenly 2-4 loss at home to 8th placed leeds.
Charlton have scored only 1 goal away in the first half.

Profitable in play opportunities

QPR are very strong indeed at home, will that be enough to stop the Charlton away 0-1 winning sequence.
QPR have a good winning record against bottom sides at home, and that should continue as they themselves are on a 3 match winning streak.
If Charlton score first and lead in the first half, chance laying them in the Halftime market.

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3pm - Atromitos v Veria - 1.33 home
This is an interesting price from Greece. A team other than Olympiakos priced up as really strong favourites.
Standout stats

There are only 2 recent head to heads of relevance, a 2-2 draw and a 0-0 in 2013. A 0-0 in a match featuring Greek sides? Surely not?
This is a match between 3rd and 18th in the league ( 18th is bottom).
Atromitos at home have beaten 3 of the bottom 5 sides at home, scoring 2 or 3 goals and not conceding. This augurs well for a match against bottom side today.
Atromitos have only failed to score in 1 match this season.
Atromitos have scored in their last 7 matches overall.
Atromitos have not had a 0-0 this season.
Veria as you would expect are struggling. They have only had one win all season, and have 6 losses and 3 draws in their last 9 matches.
Veria have failed to score in 6 of their last 7 matches and have only kept 2 clean sheets all season.
Veria did draw 1-1 against 4th placed Panathanaikos away from home. They are playing 3rd today.

Profitable in play opportunities

With Veria's problems scoring, a 0-0 would be a Godsend for them, as it was in their last head to heads with Atromitos.
Atromitos have not had a 0-0 this season, and their home record against bottom sides sees either a 2-0 or 3-0 win. Is there any reason to expect less.? Perhaps a 0-0 pre match would be a good insurance bet, provided the odds are nice and big.
I am not sure if there will be a DRT bet here as Veria simply cannot score in recent matches.

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4pm - Reims v Paris St-G (PSG) - 1.51 away - a deflated Ibrahimovic returns to domestic action after so nearly pulling off a great win over Portugal.
Standout stats

A 1-0 win for Reims and a 1-0 win for PSG in head to heads.
This is a match between 1st and 6th.
Reims have only lost 1 match at home, and are competitive against top teams, with a 2-1 win against 2nd, 1-1 draw v 3rd and 0-0 v 4th placed Nantes. They could give PSG a match.
Reims have conceded in their last 4 home matches, but worryingly, they have conceded 2 goals in each of their last 2 matches. Note the 2nd goal was scored in 88th minute and 90th minute in those 2 matches. We already know this season how PSG love a late surprise!
Reims ended a run of 5 matches scoring and conceding with a 0-0 last time out -those 0-0's mostly occur away from home.
Reims have conceded at least 1 goal in all bar 1 home match .
Both Reims at home and PSG away score first in 50% of their matches. So Reims could conceivably score first.
Either Ibrahimovic or Cavani have scored in PSG's last 8 matches. If either of these guys is missing, PSG will feel it.
PSG join a dwindling number of unbeaten teams this season. Away from home they have had 4 wins and 2 draws.
PSG have beaten 4th and 5th away from home 1-2 so expect another tight one against 6th today.
PSG have scored in their last 13 matches.

Profitable in play opportunities

this should be a competitive match. It is 50/50 literally who will score the first goal. I hope it is Reims.
A 1-2 PSG scoreline looks like a good trading starting point pre match as both teams could score.
PSG have scored in their last 13 matches so if this match contrives to be 1-0 late on, chance a PSG late showing ( although that normally occurs at home).

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5pm - Charleroi v Anderlecht - 1.58 away
Anderlecht are the dominant force in Belgian Football and are usually reliable.
Standout stats

Win Win Draw Win Loss Win Win for Anderlecht in head to heads. At Charleroi it is a lot tighter with 0-2, 0-0 and 2-0 Charleroi win in last 3 head to heads.
This is 11th v 4th. Anderlecht could go top with a win.
Charleroi have only won 3 matches this season, 2 at home v 6th and 8th were 2-1 and 2-0. They are yet to play the top 5 at home.
Charleroi have conceded in all bar 1 match at home and have only kept 2 clean sheets.
Champions League Alert - Anderlecht play Benfica at home on the 27th November.
Charleroi have failed to score in only 4 matches this season, so could score ?
It is noticeable that Charleroi have had 3 score draws, 1 at home and 2 away against top 3 .
They have already lost 2-5 away at Anderlecht this season ( notice they scored again).
Charleroi have conceded in their last 7 matches.
There as only been one 0-0 in all of these teams' matches this season.
Anderlecht have only had 1 draw all season a home 1-1 v top. Their only 2 away losses were against 3rd and 5th.
Anderlecht have won all 9 matches against 8th and lower home and away. They have won all aways without conceding against 8th and lower.

Profitable in play opportunities.

Anderlecht were not one of those who lost their match immediately preceeding a Champions League match so I hope we have nothing to fear.
They have comfortably beaten all teams 8th and lower home and away, scoring 2 minimum.
Charleroi might break the record of Anderlecht clean sheet wins against 8th and lower.
Charleroi have had a good record this season against the top 3 with 3 score draws. They could score and if scoring first, I feel are layable because they concede regularly.

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5pm - Galatasaray ( Gala for short) v Sivasspor - 1.59 home
Galatasary have Mancini installed as the new manager and they also have a Champions League Alert with an away match to Real Madrid on the 27th November 2013. Galatasary did concede first in their last league match before a Champions League match.
Standout Stats.

Galatasary's only head to head loss was in a cup match. They have scored 7 in their last 2 head to heads.
Interestingly this is 6th v 3rd. You'd have thought Gala would be higher in the league.
Gala have only 2 defeats this season both away to 1st and 8th. They have won their last 2 home matches 2-1, not very convincing.
In fact galatasary have had 2 1-1 draws and 3 2-1 wins at home, all against teams 9th and below.
Gala are yet to play a top 7 side at home with season
Sivasspor have a poor start to the season with 3 defeats in 6 matches, but since then they have won 5 and had a single 0-0 draw. They have scored 4-2-2-4-2 in those 5 wins but only 2 of those wins have come away from home.
Sivasspor have lost 5-2 away to top team. and drew 0-0 with 7th.
All bar one of Sivasspor's wins has come against 11th and lower.
Sivasspor have kept 4 clean sheets in their last 5 matches.

Profitable in play opportunities

Sivasspor are in good form. Yes, they have lost to 1st and 2nd so there is an argument that they are vulnerable to the better sides.
Galatasary have scored and conceded in all matches at home this season. Either 1-1 or 2-1 scorelines. Is 1-1 backable pre match in the hope there is a trading angle?
Galatasary have dominated the scoring in the last 2 head to heads ( 3 and 4 scored). IS this enough to side with them today? Sivasspor look in form (albeit wins have come largely against 11th and lower).
Sivasspor have conceded only 1 goal in their last 5 matches which is good defensively but I repeat they have played the lower sides largely.
Remember the Champions League match impending.

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5pm - Sociedad v Celta Vigo - 1.77 home

5pm - Sparta Prague v Mlada Boleslav - 1.55 home

530pm - Panthrakikos ( Pan for short) v Olympiakos ( Oly for short) - 1.25 away
Olympiakos are another solid DRT side so I'll always prioritise their matches.
Standout stats

This is a match between 12th and 1st.
Olympiakos have won the last 6 meetings, although when they visit Panthrakikos, the match is always tight, 0-2, 0-1 and 1-2 scorelines .
Pan have not won their last 3 home matches, and lost 0-3 to 2nd in the league. Is that a template for today's match?
Pan have conceded in all bar 1 home match ( that bar was against bottom side).
Pan have actually conceded in all matches except the match they played against bottom side.
Pan have scored and conceded in 8 of their 11 matches this season.
Naturally Pan have kept only 1 clean sheet .
Olympiakos have an identical record to Barcelona this season. They have won all matches bar a 0-0.
Oly have scored 4+ goals in 6 matches this season and in 4 of their last 5 matches.
Oly have kept clean sheets in all bar 3 matches.

Profitable in play opportunities

0-2 could be a good starting scoreline. The last time these 2 met in Panthrakikos it was 1-2 , but Pan's goal was a late late penalty.
Beware Oly's recent goal scoring. 4+ goals in 4 of their last 5 matches.
As is the case in Greece, 0-0 can never be dismissed but I would be confident for an Oly goal should this match somehow conceive a 0-0 for a sustained period.

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530pm - West Ham ( Hammers) v Chelsea - 1.65 away - Champions League Alert We remember well how Chelsea went down 2-0 to Newcastle before their last Champions League match, so be aware of potential under performance in this London derby.
Standout stats

Chelsea at home have won easily in head to heads and the scoreline at West Ham has been 1-3 and 3-1. How the Hammers would want a replication of that 3-1 scoreline
This is a match between 4th and 16th. Chelsea are bang in there for the title after 11 matches in a very open title race. West Ham need points.
West Ham have only 2 wins this season, home to Cardiff and away to Tottenham. I remember the latter - it came out of the blue.
All West Ham draws this season have been 0-0.
West Ham are yet to play the top 5 at home, but have lost 2-3 at home to Everton and 1-3 at home to Manchester City.
Stats are very poor for West Ham goals wise. They have only scored 2 first half and 3 2nd half goals at home and conceded 6 2nd half goals, 4 in the last 1/4 hour.
Chelsea have lost 2 away matches, v Newcastle and Everton. On both occasions without scoring.
Chelsea's only win away came against bottom 6 side Norwich which might augur well against bottom 5 side West Ham.
Chelsea have conceded in their last 6 matches. They have conceded 2 goals in their last 2 matches.
Chelsea have scored and conceded in 5 of their last 6 matches.
Chelsea have only scored 1 first half goal away but 3 2nd half away goals
There is no standout away goal scorer.

Profitable in play opportunities

This is a london derby and sometimes form is thrown out of the window so bear that in mind.
Also bear in mind that Chelsea lost their last premier league match before an important Champions League match. Are they vulnerable?
Chelsea's away form is poor but they have beaten current 6th bottom away. Is that enough to have faith in them beating current 5th bottom
When West Ham meet top 8 sides at home, they have conceded 3 goals ( Everton and Manchester City).
Warning - this match might not go to form for the reasons given above. If it does go to form, expect Chelsea, at their optimum, to score at least 3 goals.

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545pm - PSV v Heerenveen - 1.39 home
PSV have won the last 2 meetings 5-1 which is quite some stat.
Standout stats

Both sides have scored and conceded in their last 6 meetings.
Europa League Alert - I wouldn't be as concerned
This is between 8th and 9th, and PSV have actually played a match more than Heerenveen so are in poor form .
PSV have only 1 win in their last 6 matches. At home they have won 4 and drawn 2.
All 4 defeats for PSV have come away.
PSV have scored and conceded in 5 of their last 6 matches.
PSV have scored first in their last 3 matches, and conceded afterwards.
PSV have conceded in their last 6 matches.
PSV have only conceded 2 goals at home, both in the first half. They have scored a whopping 12 2nd half goals. at home.
PSV tend to score first at home, but that may not be the end of it. As I said above, they have a bad habit of conceding when ahead.
No opponent has led at PSV at halftime.
Heerenveen have lost 4 matches this season and like PSV they have come recently. Heerenveen lost 3 of their last 4 matches.
Heerenveen have failed to score in only 1 match and have kept only one clean sheet this season - this is a recipe for goals surely ?
6 of Heerenveen's last 7 matches have been over 2.5 goals.
Strangely enough , Heerenveen have lost 3 matches against 13th and below and only lost 1 match against those teams higher than 13th.
Heerenveen have conceded in their last 10 matches.

Profitable in play opportunities.

PSV away from home are unreliable so will they get some solace from today's home match. It would seem both teams are capable of scoring ( as they have done in head to heads) which makes an over 2.5 bets obvious.
There is a chance that a halftime score 0-0 lay might come in , especially as Heerenveen have only had 1 0-0 at halftime all season.
Will PSV continue to concede a goal after scoring first as they have done in their last 3 matches?

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6pm - Netherlands (W) v Greece (W) - 1.01 home

6pm - SV Ried v Admira Wacker - 1.61 home

615pm - Benfica v Braga - 1.59 home

645pm - AZ Alkmaar v Roda JC - 1.47 home

645pm - FC Basel v Thun - 1.57 home

645pm - Young Boys v Lausanne - 1.49 home

7pm - Almeria v Real Madrid - 1.31 away
Real Madrid have been the DRT cash cow this season, and it's thanks largely to Ronaldo.
Standout stats

the first thing to note is that all of Real Madrid's team have been involved in international matches of varying significance. I'm not sure if it will affect their performances today ( perhaps a look at Celtic, Barcelona and other teams with Internationals in them will give us a clue).
This is a match between 17th and 3rd in the league. With Atl Madrid playing later, and Barcelona playing earlier, every match for Real Madrid is simply a must-win.
What a contrast! When these 2 teams meet in Madrid, the scorelines are 3-0, 4-2, and 8-1, but when Real madrid visit Almeria , the scorelines are 1-1, 1-2, 1-1. Food for thought. Almeria have scored first in the last 2 meetings at Almeria.
Almeria have exactly matches Real Madrid on recent form, 3 wins and a defeat in their last 4 matches.
Almeria have only won 1 match at home, a 1-0 against Valladolid , which forms part of a current run of 1-0 wins ( note perhaps back 1-0 Almeria pre match remembering how tight the head to heads were).
Almeria's last 3 home matches read 0-2 ( Barcelona), 0-1, and 1-0. There is a sense that they are tough to beat when they want to be.
It is perhaps telling though, that when they visit the rarified air of the top 4, they have conceded 2-4-3 goals ( but did score 2 away to Atl Madrid and 2 at home in defeat to Villareal.)
Almeria have not had a draw in 8 matches.
Almeria have scored first in 4 out of their 6 home matches.
Neither of these sides have had a 0-0 this season.
Almeria's only 2 clean sheets this season have come in their last 2 matches.
Real Madrid have only lost to 1st and 2nd.
Real have scored a startling 7-3-5 goals in their last 3 matches, and in 2 of their last 3 matches , they were layed at 1.01 for a successful trade.
Real Madrid have scored and conceded in 10 matches this season and in 5 of their last 6 matches.
Real have only failed to score against Atl Madrid.
Real have not had a draw in 9 matches.
Real have only scored first in 3 of their 6 away matches so do pay attention for an early DRT

Profitable in play opportunities.

This match has a habit of being a tough one whenever Real Madrid visit. Will that continue today ( they have scored 15 goals in their last 3 matches)?
How will the international break affect Real Madrid?
Will Almeria score first -prepare if they do ( they scored first in the last 2 head to heads at Almeria and Real Madrid have conceded first in 3 away matches out of 6).
Real Madrid are a 5 star DRT side so are worthy of your attention for 90 minutes ( look at the 1-2 v Elche and the 2-3 away win v Levante for proof).
These 2 teams tend to avoid draws of late.
back Almeria 1-0 just in case.....? They have 2 consecutive 1-0 results, BUT Real Madrid have only failed to score in one match this season.

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7pm - Antwerp v Hoogstraten - 1.33 home

7pm - Gent v Waasland-Beveren - 1.44 home

7pm - Lyon v Valenciennes - 1.65 home

7pm - Oostende v Genk - 1.67 away

730pm - Legia Warsaw v Pogon Szczecin - 1.52 home

We now have a superb run of 745pm kick offs featuring premium sides ( Ajax notwithstanding) , well worthy of monitoring and researching

745pm - AC Milan v Genoa - 1.51 home
AC Milan are another team for whom there is a Champions League Alert, not that they need an impending Champions League match in order to play poorly in the league, as we will see!
Standout stats

745pm - Ajax v Heracles - 1.26 home

745pm - Napoli v Parma - 1.5 home - Napoli are currently 3rd and right in the chase for Seria A. Parma are currently 11th after 12 matches.
Standout stats

Champions League Alert Napoli were not one of the "cursed" last time they have a league match before a Champions League match. They won 2-1 last time, all 1st half goals and a home match. They play Dortmund away from home on the 26th November 2013. Rafa Benitez is an experienced Champions League coach.
Both sides have scored and conceded in the last 5 head to heads.Napoli have won 4 of the 5 head to heads.
Napoli have only lost 2 matches all season, both away and both against current 1st and 2nd. It will take a big performance from an average team to beat Napoli.
Napoli have managed to score 2+ in all bar one home match, all wins bar the one against Sassuolo.
In Napoli's 9 wins this season, they have scored 2 goals minimum
Napoli have scored in their last 6 home matches.
Napoli have not had a draw in their last 7 matches.
Napoli have only conceded 2 goals at home this season.
Napoli are a good side for laying 0-0 in the halftime score market ( but they play a Parma side with 3 consecutive 0-0halftime scorelines).
Napoli score first in all home matches and have led at halftime in 4 of the 6 matches.
Hamsik, Callejon and Higuan are the key home scorers.
Parma look highly inconsistent. Only 3 wins all season, all at home and all seeing opponents score 3-1-2.
Parma are yet to meet top 4 sides away, and have already conceded 2 against 5th and 3 against 6th.
Parma have conceded in their last 8 matches.
Parma have conceded 6 goals in the last 1/2 hour of away matches.

Profitable inplay opportunities

Do beware of the Champions League effect on some teams' prior league matches. Napoli's last was a 2-1 win .In wins at home, Napoli tend to score 2+ goals, and they may need to as Parma keep scoring in head to heads, and have scored away against current 5th and 6th.
If relying solely on Napoli, we could lay 0-0 in the halftime score market. Napoli have been ultra consistent in scoring 1st half at home, BUT Parma have had 3 consecutive halftime 0-0 scorelines .
Parma have conceded in their last 8 matches, so expect them to concede at some stage, particularly if Napoli play their best forward line.
Parma may concede late goals ( 60th minute +) so if they are leading or drawing coming up to the last 1/2 hour, consider laying them or the draw.

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815pm - Porto v Nacional - 1.26 home

9pm - Atl Madrid v Getafe - 1.27 home. 2nd in the league now, and Atl Madrid will know what to do as they will have the results of the Barcelona and Real Madrid matches scored earlier.
Standout stats

Madrid have kept a clean sheet in the last 5 meetings between these 2 teams. BUT the last 2 meetings were 0-0. Perhaps a 0-0 saver pre-match incase this Getafe side decide to be stubborn again.
Atl are currently 2nd in the league at time of writing and Getafe are 6th.
Atl have dropped points in only 2 matches, both away from home 0-1 and 1-1 scorelines.
At home, Atl have scored between 2 and 5 goals.
Atl have not played 6th-15th exclusive at home so their home record is against current bottom 5 and may flatter to decieve?
Atl have scored 11 home goals in the 1st half.
They have always scored first at home and led in all matches at halftime ( but do remember they have been playing almost exclusively the bottom 5 at home so far).
D Costa is by far the best goalscorer at home for Atl. So view his absence as a negative.
Getafe's intent away is clear. They have kept 3 consecutive away clean sheets, winning those matches.
Getafe have beaten 4th 0-2 but lost 4-1 away to Real Madrid.
No away draws yet for Getafe
Getafe have lost 2 of their last 4 matches 1-0 and also drawn 1 1-1. A running theme re: tight defence?
Interestingly Getafe have scored first in 4 of their 6 away matches.
Neither side has had a 0-0 this season.

Profitable in play opportunities.

Caution advised. Atl Madrid have almost exclusively only played the current bottom 5 sides at home. An easy run so far?
Getafe have not scored against Atl Madrid in their last 5 meetings, but the last 2 meetings were 0-0. Getafe have kept 3 clean sheets away now, so perhaps a 0-0 pre match bet incase this defensive Getafe turn up.
Atl usually score between 2 and 5 goals at home, but again is that down to the relatively poor opposition they have faced so far?

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Other matches of interest
1245pm - Everton v Liverpool - 2.66 away
This is quite simply one of those " best team on the day " matches where I don't think form will really mean anything. Local derbies tend to be one-off matches. The odds relate to you the tightness of the match. Both sides have new managers too
Standout stats

Liverpool have not lost a derby match in the last 6 meetings. There have been 3 draws . Liverpool scored 2-2-3-2-2-0 in those matches.
This is between 6th and 2nd
Everton have only lost 1 match this season, away to Manchester City.
At home, Everton have drawn 2 matches 0-0 ( the scoreline of the last Merseyside derby) and won 3 against Chelsea, Newcastle and Hull
Everton have kept clean sheets in the last 3 matches against Aston villa ( away), Spurs ( home ) and Crystal Palace ( away). This is the 2nd set of 3 consecutive clean sheets this season.
Everton are on a current run of 2 0-0's. Perhaps you'd want to back 0-0 pre match given that was the last Merseyside derby scoreline as well.
Everton have scored 5 goals at home in the first half. Liverpool have scored 6 away goals in the first half.
No opponent has yet scored first in Everton's 5 home matches.
There ain't half some talent up front. For Everton Lukaku has been impressive and Liverpool's SAS of Sturridge and Suarez is really solid. Sturridge has impressed with 4 home and 4 away goals this season.
Liverpool have lost only when they have been "shut out" by Southampton and Arsenal. A solid defensive unit like Everton is certainly capable of that.
Liverpool have 2 2-2 draws away from home and only 2 wins against Villa and Sunderland.Liverpool have played only one of the top 10 away from home, losing 2-0 to Arsenal.
Liverpool have conceded in their last 4 away matches.
Profitable in play opportunities.

This is not a match which immediately appeals to me as it is a local derby and new management has stamped their authority on both sides.
Were we to base this solely on form, then we would see an Everton side adept at defending as shown by 3 consecutive clean sheets, the 2nd time they have kept 3 consecutive clean sheets this season. Liverpool's only defeats this season have occured when they have been stopped from scoring.
Prior to the 0-0 in the last Merseyside derby, Liverpool scored 2 at least in 5 consecutive head to heads and remain unbeaten in the Merseyside derby in 6 matches.
If we are to see a goal, it would most likely come first half, although Iwould not put anyone off a 0-0 pre match saver. Both sides have totalled 11 goals scored first half home and away.
This is such a tough match to call. On recent history Liverpool simply don't lose derby matches. On recent form , Everton are tough to score against and no team has yet scored first at Goodison.

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3pm - Fulham v Swansea - 2.34 away.
On the face of it, this match is as unappealing a match as I am likely to come across. It is a premiership match so is worthy of some research.
Standout stats

Since 2012, Swansea have won 2 meetings at Fulham, and Fulham then won at Swansea. Very contrarian.
This is 18th v 13th, but 2 points only separate these strugglers.
Fulham have only 3 wins this season, 2 of which were 1-0 and one which came at home.
On closer inspection it would seem Fulham have been dealt a very difficult card , with matches against Arsenal, Liverpool, Southampton (3rd), Chelsea, and Manchester United ( all defeats).
At home, Fulham have scored and conceded in all bar their 1-0 win against Stoke.
It is perhaps telling that Fulham have only beaten the current bottom 4 sides .
Fulham's only 2 clean sheets this season resulted in wins, which infers an inability to score 2 goals or more( they have only managed that against hapless Palace)
Conceding so many goals has made laying 0-0 in the halftime score market lucrative for Fulham, but they do face a lesser apparent goal threat today though.
There is only 1 0-0 scoreline in these 2 teams' matches.
Swansea have yet to draw away. They have lost to Southampton, Spurs ( 1-0) and Cardiff ( 1-0 and a Welsh derby). Wins away have come against West Brom and Crystal Palace ( both 0-2)
Like Fulham, Swansea do all of their best work against the bottom 5, and have only 1 point to show in encounters against the top 9.
Swansea have failed to score in their last 2 away matches

Profitable in play opportunities

I only research this as it is a premiership match. It offers me little in the way of a betting opportunity.
I am afraid I have no angle in at all, suffice to say both of these sides perform better against strugglers.

Monday, 18 November 2013

19/11

There were actually some interesting matches yesterday . Italy scored first against Nigeria but Nigeria then took a 1-2 lead. If you had faith in Italy , then there was a DRT trade there, and Italy eventually equalised.
The Albania u21 v Spain u21 gave you a chance to back a 1.03 shot at 1.25 and higher. Yes, Spain u21 struggled in the first half but eventually scored in the 2nd half for a great value bet.
The Austria U21 v Hungary u21 was hardly the under 2.5 goals match I was expecting. Austria were actually 1-2 down in this match, which was the DRT trade, and they pushed on to win 4-2 .
The Israel u21 v Portugal u21 was a trader's delight, Israel u21 led twice in the match, with Portugal eventually winning a thriller 3-4.
Peterborough's problems continue, as they went down 2-0 to Walsall. The problems for me of lowering my sights to lower leagues.
The goals flowed once more in a Helmond v WillemII match, and this was my highlight match of the day. 1-4 was the eventual scoreline and Helmond yet again scored and conceded. Total goals between these 3 teams have been 7-6 and now 5!!

130am - Argentina v Bosnia - 1.57 home - no Messi

1030am - Syria v Oman - 2.48 away

1130am - China v Saudi Arabia - 2.24 home

12pm - Hong Kong v Uzbekistan - 1.26 away

12pm - Litex Lovech v Sozopol - 1.04 home

1245pm - Malaysia v Qatar - 1.55 away

2pm - Russia v South Korea - 1.98 home

245pm - Bahrain v Yemen - 1.14 home

3pm - Croatia U21 v Latvia U21 - 1.19 home

330pm - Lebanon v Iran - 1.65 away. I quite like Iran from what I've seen of them. They over delivered at a higher price than this away to Thailand last week.

330pm - U.A.E. v Vietnam - 1.12 home - I liked the U.A.E. against Hong Kong. It really was a standout bet. How do they measure up against Vietnam in this Asian Cup qualifier ( ACQ for short)?
Standout stats

UAE are clearly dominant in the region and in ACQ matches. They have won their 4 2013 matches with a 1-2 win against Vietnam ( a hard fought victory as it was 1-1), 2-1 home win against Uzbekistan ( coming from behind), 0-4 win against Hong Kong, and another 4-0 win against Hong Kong.
Vietnam, like Thailand below, are struggling in ACQ matches. They have not won any of the 8 they have competed in since 2009, and have lost their 4 2013 matches. Considering they have lost 1-0 to Hong Kong, who UAE soundly spanked 4-0 (twice), it is not wonder that UAE are priced up to score 3/4 goals and possibly win to nil.

Profitable in play opportunities

There are unlikely to be any in this match. Do note that at Vietnam the scoreline was only 1-2 and it was a very tight match. The market expects a far more comfortable UAE performance today. If Vietnam score first, then this is our entry point for a DRT trade.

335pm - Kuwait v Thailand - 1.3 home. The problem with Thailand is that they simply do not have a consistent finisher, or any finisher for that matter. In this Asian Cup qualifier ( ACQ for short), clearly Thailand are struggling.
Standout stats

kuwait are unbeaten in 8 ACQ matches. But note they have drawn 6 of their last 7 ACQ matches.
In February this year, Kuwait beat Thailand 1-3 away from home, and emphatically.
Kuwait have drawn their last 3 home ACQ matches.
Thailand have not won their last 7 ACQ matches. They have lost their last 5 matches, and have conceded 5-2-3 since Kuwait beat them 1-3.
Interestingly Thailand perform better away from home, insofar as they actually score! Thailand scored 2 goals away at Lebanon and 1 goal away at Iran. Could Thailand get on the scoresheet today?

Profitable in play opportunities

would seem to be scarce in this match. Any DRT really relies on Thailand scoring first and their forward line is simply dire. There is hope , as Thailand have scored 3 in their last 2 ACQ matches.
Kuwait have a case of drawitis but were clear winners against Thailand in February and can be considered as worthy favourites against a Thailand side on a 5 match losing run in this competition.

4pm - Egypt v Ghana - 2.04 home - these World Cup play off matches in Africa have exclusively gone with the short priced favourite in the 2nd leg, particularly when they have home advantage. We see this pattern again today.
Ghana have just beaten Egypt 1-6 in the first leg, and Egypt are inserted as evens favourites .
My guess is that this is because Ghana do not have to win, merely avoid a 5-0 defeat.
This is almost a dead rubber for the Ghanaians. It adds to the list of matches ( such as France and Sweden's) which are very difficult to find a trading angle.

4pm - Russia U21 v Estonia U21 - 1.22 home
2nd and 3rd meet in group 2. Russia u21 have played a match more than Estonia u21
Standout stats

Only one defeat in the group for Russia U21 came at the hands of the group leaders Denmark. That defeat came at home, and the other home match saw a 3-1 win against Bulgaria u21.
Estonia too went 1-0 down to Denmark, and worryingly drew 1-1 with Andorra before beating Andorra 0-2 in the return match.
Estonia u21 are unbeaten in 4 matches. Their wins have seen clean sheets.
Estonia u21 are unbeaten in their last 3 away matches.

Profitable in-play opportunities

This is not a match I can really get an angle into, bar Russia's short odds betraying the market's view. Both sides have lost to Denmark, but there is little else to tell me the relative strengths of the 2 teams. yes Estonia are unbeaten in 4 matches and that might count for something.

4pm - San Marino U19 v Luxembourg U19 - 1.87 away. A chance for a rare win?

5pm - Romania U21 v Germany U21 - 1.49 away

5pm - Slovenia v Canada - 1.4 home

5pm - Sweden U21 v Malta U21 - 1.1 home
Sweden u21 are way off the pace in group 7th, 4th after 4 games , with 4 points. All the 4's. A win therefore becomes a necessity today.
Malta have no points after 5 matches.
Standout stats

Sweden have been in relatively poor form of late and are therefore difficult to read. For example, they beat Poland u21 3-1 at home, and then promptly lost to the same team 2-0 a month later. Sweden u21 have had just that 1 win in 6 matches, and a draw against Turkey u21 ( 2-2), They were very soundly thrashed 5-1 by Greece u21 in their last match and must eye up this match against Malta as an opportunity for 3 points.
Sweden u21 look strong at home, with 4 wins and a tight 2-3 loss to Italy u21 in their last 5 matches. 4-3-2-2-3 scored in those matches must augur well for today's match?
Malta u21 have failed to score in 5 of their last 7 matches. They scored in 2 5-1 defeats, to Ukraine u21 and Poland u21.
Malta u21 have consistently conceded big numbers - 4-5-2-4-5-4-5 in their last 7 matches, and this does not augur well when their opponents are priced at 1.1 ( likelihood of 4/5 goals scored and a possible win to nil).

Profitable in play opportunities

Sweden's saving grace might be their home form and their opposition's ability to concede 4 and 5 goals like clockwork.
Sweden it must be said are in poor form, but then in Malta u21 they meet a team in poorer form.
This is a match where the odds suggest 3/4 goals minimum, and Malta's form suggests 3/4 goals minimum, and Sweden's goalscoring at home at least suggests 3/4 goals minimum.

6pm - England U21 v San Marino U21 - England are unbackable. And that means only one thing. An expected avalanche of goals. 6-0 looks a good starting point for me.
We have seen minnows in recent matches really dig in their heels, this enabled us to back a team such as 1.03 Spain u21 at odds as high as 1.25 ( I backed them at 1.12 as I thought that was value!). We can only dream of that today, or even a San Marino u21 goal.
Norway u19 were backable at odds of 3.25 against San Marino u19. What hope England u21 reach these odds. It truly will be Christmas-come-early!
No real research necessary here. Note that when teams are unbackable, you could speculate higher than 6-0 -remember the Spanish ladies won 13-0 recently.

6pm - Malta v Faroe Islands - 1.95 home

6pm - Norway v Scotland - 2.1 home

6pm - Turkey v Belarus - 1.52 home

615pm - Algeria v Burkina Faso - 1.58 home

7pm - South Africa v Spain - 1.23 away - Spain were 1-2 up against the might of , er, Equatorial guinea and that was how that match ended. Spain were 1.1 in that friendly and are now 1.23 here against a stronger side in South Africa.
Standout stats

730pm - Netherlands v Colombia - 2.18 home

745pm - Austria v USA - 2.24 home

745pm - Carlisle v Boreham Wood - 1.42 home

745pm - Croatia v Iceland - 1.36 home - Iceland survive for the 2nd leg away to Croatia after a 0-0 in the first leg of this World Cup play-off. I said it earlier with the African play-offs that the short priced favourites, particularly when playing at home, have tended to win comfortably. With Croatia at 1.36 at home this evening, the market expects this trend to continue.
This might be a nervy home match for Croatia as they lost at home to Spain and Belgium in their last 2 matches.
Iceland scored and conceded in their last 4 away matches in World Cup qualifiers.
I repeat though that this is a one off.

745pm - France v Ukraine - 1.46 home Teams have found Ukraine a tough team to score against. Quite simply, Les Bleus need a 2-0 scoreline bare minimum for starters. Ukraine, well, a 0-0 or a 1-0 sees them comfortable . An intriguing match of attack v defence tonight.
Your success or failure in this match will depend on the trust you place in an initial France 2-0 scoreline. It is definitely worthy of an investment as it is the far more likely outcome with home advantage.

745pm - Poland v Rep of Ireland - 2.32 home

745pm - Romania v Greece - 2.22 home - Greece look done and dusted in this World Cup play off with an emphatic 3-1 win at home. It was 1-1 until the 19th minute , then Greece trotted clear.
Again, no research can really be done in these special games.
Romania need a 2-0 result for starters , and then push on from there. Greece need a 0-0 ( and this being Greece, it would not surprise) or a 0-1 to really knock the stuffing out of the Romanians.
With the odds at 2.22 for the favourite, this relays the difficulty in getting a good betting angle in.

745pm - Sweden v Portugal - 2.8 home and 2.78 away. The 2 teams cannot be split in the market, and are only split in this 2nd leg by a single goal for Ronaldo's Portugal.
Again, research is redundant in this winner takes all World Cup match. Context is everything.
Sweden must score first. That is the key for them.
Sweden must not concede.
Portugal are happy with a 0-0. If Portugal score first, you feel the tie is over, but Sweden have shown historically that they have bags of goals in them ( see their performances against Germany). Like the France v Ukraine match, this is a match to enjoy and not particularly to have a trading position in.

745pm - Wolves v Oldham - 1.72 home

8pm - Belgium v Japan - 1.72 home
Standout stats

This is an international friendly and both sides have identical recent friendly records, 2 wins, 2 defeats and a draw.
My gut instinct is that Belgium must be favoured here if playing anything near a full first team.
In 2013, Belgium beat United states and Slovakia but lost to Columbia and drew 0-0 with France. In those 2 matches they failed to score.
Only Columbia have beaten Belgium at home in recent friendlies. Belgium have failed to score in the last 2 home friendlies so take a chance perhaps on them ending that unwelcome season today.
Japan are far better in their home friendlies where they have 4 wins in 6. Their last 3 matches have been away from home, losing 2-0 to Serbia, 1-0 to Belarus, and drawing 2-2 with the Netherlands when the Netherlands were 2-0 up at halftime ( this was a successful DRT if you remember as I advocated laying the Netherlands if 2-0 up at halftime.)

Profitable in play opportunities

With likely wholesale changes at halftime, ( and this counts for all friendlies today), this makes matches like this difficult to nail. We have a Belgian side without a goal in their last 2 home friendlies, and you'd hope they'd want that to end tonight.
The Japanese did well to draw with Netherlands but perhaps pointedly their goals were scored in the 2nd half, after the Netherlands made a raft of changes.
If 0-0 for a while, I'd chance a Belgian breakthrough at home -they want to give their friendly supporters a goal.

8pm - England v Germany - 2.48 away. 2 consecutive home friendly defeats for England?