Here is an excerpt of April's article on "creating value from short prices"
Follow this step-by-step strategy to optimise your chances of collecting an evens return time after time.
1) Ensure you know your fractional and decimal odds.  This will allow you to use both the bookmakers and www.betfair.com as your resources with which to mine for 1/5, 1 /4 and 1/3 shots. For the record, a 1/5 shot is 1.20 in decimal odds. A 1 /4 shot is 1.25 in decimal odds. A 1/3 shot is 1.33 in decimal odds.
2) Don’t restrict yourself to backing selections in order to make your quota of 1/5 , 1/4 and 1/3 shots. With our ability to lay ( as the patriarch reminds us this month), we can get the same return as a 1/5 , 1/4 and 1/3 shot by laying selections at certain prices. Keep a note of the lay odds below which correspond to the same as backing the selection.
1/5 shot is 1.20  - lay a selection at 6.00  . Backing a 1.20 shot with £100 will return £20. Laying a selection at odds of 6.00 for £100 liability ( not stake) will return around £20.
1 /4 shot is 1.25 – lay a selection at 5.00. Backing a 1.25 shot with £100 will return £25. Laying a selection at odds of 5.00 for £100 liability ( not stake) will return around £25.
1/3 shot is 1.33 – lay a selection at 4.00. Backing a 1.33 shot with £100 will return £33. Laying a selection at odds of 4.00 for £100 liability ( not stake) will return around £33.

What I am going to attempt now is to try and sniff out a 1.2, 1.25 or 1.3 shot which can be backed, or a 6.00, 5.00 or 4.00 shot which can be layed.
 I will use the techniques I suggested within the article. I hope you find it informative


RACING POST SHORTLISTERS/PRICE GAPPERS. We look to find horses with an obvious chance of winning, but we want to back them in the TO PLACE ONLY  market.

Yesterday
Kibaar won at 4/11, Kafeel won at 1/2 so 100% record yesterday
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
610 bath
Betting forecast: 11/10 Jimmy´s Girl, 11/2 Powerfulstorm, 6/1 Multi Quest, 6/1 Scent Of Power, 12/1 Frank The Barber, 16/1 Indian Tim, 16/1 King´s Bond, 20/1 Spirit In Time.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Powerfulstorm has been a single-figure price on both runs so far and although she's yet to beat a rival, she could have more to come in headgear and this looks particularly weak. JIMMY'S GIRL has her limitations but she should give her running and that could be enough to see her get off the mark at the fourth attempt.[Paul Smith]

yes a maiden, but I do like the profile here, 2 consecutive 2nd places for the fav and 3 places

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
330 Brighton
Betting forecast: 1/2 Tryster, 9/2 Mbhali, 5/1 Executrix, 14/1 Dream And Hope, 50/1 Red Inferno.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: TRYSTER probably doesn't need to improve on his promising recent debut at Newmarket to get off the mark here. Executrix didn't show much on her first start but has an excellent pedigree and is in good hands.[Chris Wilson]

another maiden, fav has had only 1 run and is expected to win or place in 1st 2 at least.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
550 Gowran Park
Betting forecast: 4/7 Highland Reel, 9/2 Hall Of Fame, 11/2 Crescent, 6/1 Taqaseem, 10/1 Kilimanjaro, 14/1 Fresh Focus, 20/1 Nickscreamcracker, 25/1 Ripped, 50/1 Cleano.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: HIGHLAND REEL is hard to oppose on the basis of an opening run at Leopardstown which gives him the measure of two key opponents, Crescent and Taqaseem. [Alan Sweetman]

The usual Aiden O'Brien shortie here after only 1 run and in another maiden.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


TENNIS SHORT PRICES

See the shortlist for my list of results.

Today
11am - Gerald Melzer v Maximilian Marterer  - 1.26 Melz - 146th v 639th - cancelled

1130am - Tereza Smitkova v Lucie Safarova  - 1.23 Saf -  175th v 23rd - WIN 2 SETS

12pm - Caroline Wozniacki v Barbora Zahlavova Strycova  - 1.35 Woz - 16th v 43rd 3-0 H2H - LOST 2 SET

1pm - Jeremy Chardy v Marin Cilic  - 1.34 Cil - 42nd v 29th 1-0 H2H - WON 3 SETS

1pm - Jozef Kovalik v Thomaz Bellucci  - 1.28 bell - 400th v 97th - WON 2 SETS

130pm - Petra Kvitova v Shuai Peng  - 1.16 Kvit - 6th v 61st  4-0 H2H - WON 2 SETS

130pm - Ekaterina Makarova v Agnieszka Radwanska  - 1.36 Rad - 22nd v 4th  - 1-3 H2H - LOST 2 SETS

2pm - Grigor Dimitrov v Leonardo Mayer  - 1.09 Dimi - 13th v 64th - LOST 3 SETS

230pm - Andy Murray v Kevin Anderson  - 1.06 Murr - 5th v 18th 1-1 H2H - WON 3 SETS

4pm - Angelique Kerber v Maria Sharapova  - 1.26 Shara - 7th v 5th  1-4 H2H - the rankings are very tight but the market is unbalanced in favour of Maria. - YET TO PLAY

430pm - Novak Djokovic v Jo Wilfried Tsonga  - 1.11 Djoko - 2nd v 17th 12 v 5 H2H - WON 3 SETS



------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FOOTBALL SHORTIES

Yesterday -  Haka v Jazz was 3-3. Jazz were 0-3 up at halftime. Laying them as per my DRT strategies would have profited very well. KTP won 4-0, bate Borisov won 1-2

Today

5pm - France v Nigeria   -1.47 home - 2-0

9pm - Germany v Algeria  - 1.32 home 0-0 2-1 AET
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SHORTLIST

Nothing really of interest yesterday .

130pm - Petra Kvitova v Shuai Peng  - 1.16 Kvit - 6th v 61st  4-0 H2H - I like the gap in rankings here and the head to heads which are comprehensive. This is slightly under our 1.2 minimum for this each way treble. WON 2 SETS

1130am - Tereza Smitkova v Lucie Safarova  - 1.23 Saf -  175th v 23rd - another whopping rankings gap here. - WON 2 SETS

9pm - Germany v Algeria  - 1.32 home - a slight risk here as this is a winner-takes-all match. Algeria have scored and conceded in all World Cup matches in 2014 and were beaten by Belgium. Germany, like Belgium., have a solid attacking line-up 0-0

815 Ffos Las
Betting forecast: Evs Kafeel, 5/1 Know Your Name, 5/1 Space Walker, 6/1 Unison, 7/1 Caramack. WIN

A whopping price gap here and 2 places should allow for a 1.2+ odds punt here .

29th June 2014 Creating value

Here is an excerpt of April's article on "creating value from short prices"
Follow this step-by-step strategy to optimise your chances of collecting an evens return time after time.
1) Ensure you know your fractional and decimal odds.  This will allow you to use both the bookmakers and www.betfair.com as your resources with which to mine for 1/5, 1 /4 and 1/3 shots. For the record, a 1/5 shot is 1.20 in decimal odds. A 1 /4 shot is 1.25 in decimal odds. A 1/3 shot is 1.33 in decimal odds.
2) Don’t restrict yourself to backing selections in order to make your quota of 1/5 , 1/4 and 1/3 shots. With our ability to lay ( as the patriarch reminds us this month), we can get the same return as a 1/5 , 1/4 and 1/3 shot by laying selections at certain prices. Keep a note of the lay odds below which correspond to the same as backing the selection.
1/5 shot is 1.20  - lay a selection at 6.00  . Backing a 1.20 shot with £100 will return £20. Laying a selection at odds of 6.00 for £100 liability ( not stake) will return around £20.
1 /4 shot is 1.25 – lay a selection at 5.00. Backing a 1.25 shot with £100 will return £25. Laying a selection at odds of 5.00 for £100 liability ( not stake) will return around £25.
1/3 shot is 1.33 – lay a selection at 4.00. Backing a 1.33 shot with £100 will return £33. Laying a selection at odds of 4.00 for £100 liability ( not stake) will return around £33.

What I am going to attempt now is to try and sniff out a 1.2, 1.25 or 1.3 shot which can be backed, or a 6.00, 5.00 or 4.00 shot which can be layed.
 I will use the techniques I suggested within the article. I hope you find it informative


RACING POST SHORTLISTERS/PRICE GAPPERS. We look to find horses with an obvious chance of winning, but we want to back them in the TO PLACE ONLY  market.

Yesterday
Australia won at 1/8 , Giovanni Boldini won at 8/13, Makhfar won at 1/2
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
220 Uttoxeter
Betting forecast: 7/4 She´s Late, 2/1 Book Of Excuses, 2/1 No Substitute, 14/1 Flash Crash, 20/1 Entry To Evrywhere, 33/1 Ronnies Well, 66/1 Poppies Milan, 100/1 Battledancer, 100/1 Sammy Blade.


SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: SHE'S LATE has solid form claims based on her Market Rasen third last time out and has the potential to improve further in this sphere given her ability on the Flat (RPR 95), especially as her two wins under that code coincided with the two occasions she wore cheekpieces, applied for the first time today over hurdles. No Substitute is unlikely to be far away but he's a ten-race maiden and a greater threat could be hurdle/stable debutant Book Of Excuses, an impressive Irish point winner the last twice. [Ben Hutton]

3 under 14/1 . Will the favcourite place? Will we get 1.2 minimum?

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
435 Windsor
Betting forecast: 7/4 The Third Man, 9/2 Hedge End, 6/1 Lacock, 7/1 Jersey Brown, 7/1 Rayoumti, 8/1 Sweet Alibi, 12/1 Filosofo, 20/1 Final Countdown.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Hedge Fund and Jersey Brown have registered placed efforts in handicaps that need some respect, while Lacock is one who could easily have improvement in him, but the most potential surely comes with THE THIRD MAN (nap). The Gosden-trained colt did not live up to the market support on his recent reappearance but still showed plenty of promise on just his second start and this time he can emerge from the shadows to register a handicap win.[Richard Austen]

8 runners and 3 places, 3-2 last 2 races but this is a handicap

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

TENNIS SHORT PRICES

Yesterday's shortlisters results are in the Shortlist section - there are far too many for me to find results for. If you are interested, check for yourself at www.tennis.com

No tennis matches of interest today.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FOOTBALL SHORTIES

Yesterday - Zulte-Waregam scoring 6, Levadia won 19-0 lol.

Today
3pm - Haka v FC Jazz - 1.35 home

3pm - KTP v FC Viikingit - 1.22 home

4pm - Belshina Bobruisk v BATE Borisov - 1.29 away

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SHORTLIST

Yesterday

Makhfar won, Nishikori is in a ding-dong with Bolelli and I said yesterday 3-0 set betting is not risk free. zulte Waregam won with real ease, scoring 6. Place only was 1.05 so not worth it. Win only I suppose would have sufficed.

Today

27th June 2014 create value

Here is an excerpt of April's article on "creating value from short prices"
Follow this step-by-step strategy to optimise your chances of collecting an evens return time after time.
1) Ensure you know your fractional and decimal odds.  This will allow you to use both the bookmakers and www.betfair.com as your resources with which to mine for 1/5, 1 /4 and 1/3 shots. For the record, a 1/5 shot is 1.20 in decimal odds. A 1 /4 shot is 1.25 in decimal odds. A 1/3 shot is 1.33 in decimal odds.
2) Don’t restrict yourself to backing selections in order to make your quota of 1/5 , 1/4 and 1/3 shots. With our ability to lay ( as the patriarch reminds us this month), we can get the same return as a 1/5 , 1/4 and 1/3 shot by laying selections at certain prices. Keep a note of the lay odds below which correspond to the same as backing the selection.
1/5 shot is 1.20  - lay a selection at 6.00  . Backing a 1.20 shot with £100 will return £20. Laying a selection at odds of 6.00 for £100 liability ( not stake) will return around £20.
1 /4 shot is 1.25 – lay a selection at 5.00. Backing a 1.25 shot with £100 will return £25. Laying a selection at odds of 5.00 for £100 liability ( not stake) will return around £25.
1/3 shot is 1.33 – lay a selection at 4.00. Backing a 1.33 shot with £100 will return £33. Laying a selection at odds of 4.00 for £100 liability ( not stake) will return around £33.

What I am going to attempt now is to try and sniff out a 1.2, 1.25 or 1.3 shot which can be backed, or a 6.00, 5.00 or 4.00 shot which can be layed.
 I will use the techniques I suggested within the article. I hope you find it informative


RACING POST SHORTLISTERS/PRICE GAPPERS. We look to find horses with an obvious chance of winning, but we want to back them in the TO PLACE ONLY  market.

Yesterday
Streetcar of stars 1st 9/4, Hoodna 2nd 5/6,
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Today
530 Curragh

Betting forecast: 1/3 Australia, 7/2 Kingston Hill, 14/1 Fascinating Rock, 16/1 Geoffrey Chaucer, 25/1 Ponfeigh, 33/1 Orchestra, 50/1 Kingfisher.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: As long as the ground does not deteriorate appreciably AUSTRALIA should complete the Derby double. There had been some case for believing it should be a little closer in the betting between him and the admirable Epsom runner-up Kingston Hill, but with doubts cast on the participation of Roger Varian's colt yesterday this could turn into a formality. If an Epsom flop has not left its mark Geoffrey Chaucer may prove best of the supporting-cast. [Alan Sweetman]

Win only I suspect on Australia

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
640 Curragh
Betting forecast: 8/11 Giovanni Boldini, 13/2 Captain Joy, 7/1 He´s No Saint, 7/1 Paene Magnus, 10/1 Manalapan, 20/1 Einsteins Folly, 20/1 Talitha Kum.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: GIOVANNI BOLDINI (nap)'s chance will increase with every bit the ground hardens. The rest are a bit of a mixed bag and he looks much the safest choice on the back of a fine run in the Jersey. Perhaps Captain Joy can chase him home. [Johnny Ward]

Big price gapper, albeit 2 places only and in a listed race
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
555 Doncaster
Betting forecast: 8/11 Makhfar, 3/1 Royal Connoisseur, 7/1 Celestial Knight, 12/1 Smart Dj, 14/1 Bond Empire, 20/1 Bond´s Gift, 50/1 Wimboldsley, 66/1 Jenny Twigg.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Given that his main form rival Royal Connoisseur has a bit to prove after a couple of well-below par efforts, it can pay to stick with MAKHFAR who can go one better than when runner-up on his reappearance at Lingfield last week.[John Acton]

A favourite in a maiden who has come 232 in the last 3 races. Place again?

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------





TENNIS SHORT PRICES

Yesterday's shortlisters results are in the Shortlist section - there are far too many for me to find results for. If you are interested, check for yourself at www.tennis.com

1130am - Milos Raonic ( 1.14) v Lukasz Kubot  - 9th v 72nd

1pm - Simone Bolelli v Kei Nishikori ( 1.1) - 132nd v 12th

1pm - Angelique Kerber( 1.35)  v Kirsten Flipkens  - 7th v 26th 1-0 H2H

1pm - Mikhail Kukushkin v Rafael Nadal ( 1.05) - 63rd v 1st   - 0-2 H2H never dropped a set 2010 and 2012 best of 2 setters on clay and hard

1pm - Serena Williams ( 1.07)v Alize Cornet  - 1st v 24th  3-1 H2H  6-2 6-2 and 6-4 6-4 last time these 2 met . The latter suggests Cornet could push that Williams 1.07 odds up

130pm - Simona Halep ( 1.25)  v Belinda Bencic  - 3rd v 71st - yesterday's labours by Halep at odds of 1.07 suggests this 1.25 will rise in-play - she took 3 sets yesterday too

130pm - Madison Keys ( 1.37) v Yaroslava Shvedova  - 30th v 65th

3pm - Alison Riske v Maria Sharapova ( 1.14) - 44th v 5th  - 3 sets in 2010 in Birmingham. Will Riske get a set of Shara today?

3pm - Stan Wawrinka ( 1.41)v Denis Istomin  - 3rd v 45th and 2-1 H2H - 5 setter at Wimbledon in 2010, 7-5 last set in Monte Carlo 2013 suggests Istomin will cause problems for Stan and that makes 1.41 too short

430pm - Santiago Giraldo v Roger Federer  ( 1.03) - 35th v 4th 0-1 H2H  - 3 straight sets in 2010 Us Open

430pm - Williams/Williams ( 1.14) v Barrois/Voegele





------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FOOTBALL SHORTIES

Yesterday - St pats won 3-2 , relatively easy win, being 3-1 up for a long while

Today
2pm - KSV Oudenaarde v Zulte-Waregem  - 1.18 away - looks like a friendly here with free scoring top flight away team.

2pm - Levadia Tallinn v Tallinna Kalev Jr  - 1.02 home - you know the drill with these odds. Look for an over XYZ goals bet whose odds are about 1.2

Brazil are playing today at 1.58 but this will be a toughie against Chile.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SHORTLIST

Yesterday

St Pats won, Lopez won, Halep won, albeit 3 sets ( I have said before that 2-0 set betting is not really low risk is it, particularly with the ladies, so a mistake putting that in), and Radwanska got her revenge yesterday

Today

Today is a tough day and only Makhfar would appeal if I was being ultra picky. Trusting a 3-0 set win at Wimbledon is risky, as is trusting Zulte Waregam in a pre-season friendly. 

555 Doncaster
Betting forecast: 8/11 Makhfar, 3/1 Royal Connoisseur, 7/1 Celestial Knight, 12/1 Smart Dj, 14/1 Bond Empire, 20/1 Bond´s Gift, 50/1 Wimboldsley, 66/1 Jenny Twigg.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Given that his main form rival Royal Connoisseur has a bit to prove after a couple of well-below par efforts, it can pay to stick with MAKHFAR who can go one better than when runner-up on his reappearance at Lingfield last week.[John Acton]

A favourite in a maiden who has come 232 in the last 3 races. Place again? Looks worth place only betting this Makhfar who was a previous shortlister.

The tennis is so tough today. The obvious strong players are priced as such. Using lateral thinking, I would entertain laying Stan Wawrinka in the 3-0 set betting market if the return is similar to a 1.2, 1.25, 1.33 back bet.

1pm - Simone Bolelli v Kei Nishikori ( 1.1) - 132nd v 12th  - with such a gap in the rankings 3-0 set betting would have a chance but I am less than confident

2pm - KSV Oudenaarde v Zulte-Waregem  - 1.18 away - should spank their opponents Zulte but this is a pre-season friendly

26th June 2014 creating value from short prices

Here is an excerpt of April's article on "creating value from short prices"
Follow this step-by-step strategy to optimise your chances of collecting an evens return time after time.
1) Ensure you know your fractional and decimal odds.  This will allow you to use both the bookmakers and www.betfair.com as your resources with which to mine for 1/5, 1 /4 and 1/3 shots. For the record, a 1/5 shot is 1.20 in decimal odds. A 1 /4 shot is 1.25 in decimal odds. A 1/3 shot is 1.33 in decimal odds.
2) Don’t restrict yourself to backing selections in order to make your quota of 1/5 , 1/4 and 1/3 shots. With our ability to lay ( as the patriarch reminds us this month), we can get the same return as a 1/5 , 1/4 and 1/3 shot by laying selections at certain prices. Keep a note of the lay odds below which correspond to the same as backing the selection.
1/5 shot is 1.20  - lay a selection at 6.00  . Backing a 1.20 shot with £100 will return £20. Laying a selection at odds of 6.00 for £100 liability ( not stake) will return around £20.
1 /4 shot is 1.25 – lay a selection at 5.00. Backing a 1.25 shot with £100 will return £25. Laying a selection at odds of 5.00 for £100 liability ( not stake) will return around £25.
1/3 shot is 1.33 – lay a selection at 4.00. Backing a 1.33 shot with £100 will return £33. Laying a selection at odds of 4.00 for £100 liability ( not stake) will return around £33.

What I am going to attempt now is to try and sniff out a 1.2, 1.25 or 1.3 shot which can be backed, or a 6.00, 5.00 or 4.00 shot which can be layed.
 I will use the techniques I suggested within the article. I hope you find it informative


RACING POST SHORTLISTERS/PRICE GAPPERS. We look to find horses with an obvious chance of winning, but we want to back them in the TO PLACE ONLY  market.

Yesterday
Cougar Mountain 1st 8/11, Sugar Lump 1st 10/11,  Ilewindelilah placed 3rd 5/4 and is yet another handicap shortie not winning. Something to remember!
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Today

340 Carlisle
Betting forecast: 4/6 Scallop, 3/1 Mediate, 5/1 Law Keeper, 14/1 Legal Advisor, 25/1 Spot The Pro, 50/1 Sorcier, 50/1 Wor Lass.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: This race entirely revolves around whether any of the newcomers can make a race of it with SCALLOP, who had two subsequent winners behind on her Lingfield debut and will probably win regardless.[Alistair Whitehouse-Jones]

Very risky as there are debutants in this maiden field, and there's only 2 places available. Fav is a Stoute horse, 2nd last time out, and 2 horses behind it in that race have won since.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
620 Hamilton
Betting forecast: 1/2 Operateur, 7/1 Edas, 8/1 Harrison´s Cave, 8/1 Hunting Tower, 20/1 Jebulani, 20/1 Silver Tigress, 33/1 Grethel.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Most of these have some serious questions to answer but the exception is OPERATEUR, who has already won here three times this month and escapes a penalty for his latest success. Veteran Edas didn't run badly from out the weights at Haydock last month and may fare best of the rest.[Chris Wilson]

A huge price gapper in a yukky race - amateur rider's handicaps can be a bit keystone cops. 2 places might suggest 1.2 for the to place only market?

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
650 Hamilton
Betting forecast: 4/6 Arabian Bride, 5/1 Elizabeth Ernest, 7/1 Grand Proposal, 7/1 Why No Rein, 10/1 What Could She Be, 50/1 Lady Charlie, 66/1 Blencathra.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: ARABIAN BRIDE made a pleasing debut at Carlisle recently and may not need to improve to open her account here. Grand Proposal and Elizabeth Ernest have both shown some ability, while Why No Rein and What Could She Be are newcomers to keep an eye on.[Chris Wilson]

Johnston/Fanning  - what a combination! Can their Arabian Bride place in the first 2? Only the one run but the betting forecaster sees this maiden as home already.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

230 Newcastle

Betting forecast: 8/11 Aktabantay, 9/2 Vimy Ridge, 6/1 Geordie George, 6/1 Sea Wolf, 14/1 Just The Tip, 33/1 Dominada.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: There should not be much between Vimy Ridge and Sea Wolf again, but this should go to AKTABANTAY. He has nothing to prove in terms of trip or ground, gets weight from his main rivals and, although disappointing on the face of it when chinned at skinny odds at Nottingham last time, that form has worked out well. [Richard Young]

A 2 year old novice stakes - Gawd 'Elp us! Will this fav place in the first 2? 2 year olds are an unruly bunch at times
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
600 Tipperary
Betting forecast: 8/11 Rule The Waves, 9/2 Future Icon, 6/1 Folk Law, 7/1 Lupie, 12/1 Laharde, 20/1 Trust Your Opinion, 50/1 Kaldoun Dancer, 50/1 Well Done Me.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: RULE THE WAVES makes a quick reappearance in first-time blinkers following a promising third behind a stable companion at Leopardstown. He should prove too strong for Future Icon who showed ability first time in a good maiden at the Curragh. [Alan Sweetman]

Aiden O'Brien and son on board yet another 1 time out maiden expected to improve rapidly. That seems to be the theme today

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------



TENNIS SHORT PRICES

See the shortlist for those tennis bets I shortlisted .

1030am - Germain Gigounon v Maximo Gonzalez ( 1.22) - 259th v 116th

1030am - Albert Ramos Vinolas ( 1.15) v Hugo Dellien  - 99th v 318th

1130am - Richard Gasquet ( 1.26) v Nick Kyrgios  - 14th v 144th  - 1-0 H2H

1130am - Philipp Kohlschreiber ( 1.14) v Simone Bolelli  - 28th v 132nd  - 2-1 H2H

1130am - Denis Kudla v Kei Nishikori ( 1.09) - 136th v 12th

1130am - Milos Raonic v Jack Sock  - 1.22 Milos - 9th v 77th  - 2-1 H2H

1130am - Jiri Vesely v Gael Monfils ( 1.35) - 68th v 21st

1pm - Lukas Rosol v Rafael Nadal ( 1.1) - 52nd v 1st  - 1-1 H2H

1pm - Serena Williams ( 1.03) v Chanelle Scheepers  - 1st v 94th and 2-0 H2H

130pm - Lourdes Dominguez Lino v Kirsten Flipkens ( 1.2) - 131st v 26th 0-1 H2H

130pm - Ana Ivanovic( 1.18) v Jie Zheng  - 11th v 66th  - 2-2 H2H

130pm - Andrea Petkovic ( 1.19) v Irina-Camelia Begu  - 20th v 81st

130pm - Julian Reister v Denis Istomin ( 1.24) - 110th v 45th  - 1-1 H2H

2pm - Silvia Soler Espinosa v Eugenie Bouchard ( 1.11) - 75th v 13th  - 0-1 H2H

230pm - Angelique Kerber ( 1.44)v Heather Watson  - 7th v 60th

230pm - Stan Wawrinka ( 1.15) v Yen-Hsun Lu  - 3rd v 47th

430pm - Timea Bacsinszky v Maria Sharapova ( 1.08) - 85th v 5th 0-1 H2H

430pm - Feliciano Lopez ( 1.19)v Ante Pavic  - 26th v 163rd

430pm - Gilles Muller v Roger Federer ( 1.08) - 103rd v 4th 0-3 H2H

430pm - Jarkko Nieminen v John Isner ( 1.36) - 62nd v 11th 0-4 H2H

530pm - Simona Halep( 1.07) v Lesia Tsurenko  - 3rd v 170th and 3-0 H2H








------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

FOOTBALL SHORTIES

No football yesterday although I was sweet on the Swiss in my DRT research and should have gone with that despite the 1.48 odds

Nothing again today. The Germans are 1.6 to beat the USA in a match where a draw sends both sides through. Conspiracy anyone?
Portugal must win today and at 2.1 , the market is telling you this is no gimme against a Ghana side with a strong midfield.



------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SHORTLIST

Yesterday

Did you follow in time order? Sugar Lump won, Fognoni won and Bautista Agut won albeit I am not sure if these were consecutive matches. The match I feared, Azarenka's , produced a loss. To be honest I should not have included it. I did, after all, mention my concerns with decline and injury . At least we won't seee that bell-end DJ on our TV screens. Small blessings!

No football today, again.

620 Hamilton
Betting forecast: 1/2 Operateur, 7/1 Edas, 8/1 Harrison´s Cave, 8/1 Hunting Tower, 20/1 Jebulani, 20/1 Silver Tigress, 33/1 Grethel.

I am taken by the huge price gap. A hope, with only 2 places, that Operateur is 1.2 or thereabouts in the place only market. Multiple handicap winners are a concern as they can peeter out, but this one escapes a penalty for his latest success.

----------------------------
340 Carlisle
Betting forecast: 4/6 Scallop, 3/1 Mediate, 5/1 Law Keeper, 14/1 Legal Advisor, 25/1 Spot The Pro, 50/1 Sorcier, 50/1 Wor Lass.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: This race entirely revolves around whether any of the newcomers can make a race of it with SCALLOP, who had two subsequent winners behind on her Lingfield debut and will probably win regardless.[Alistair Whitehouse-Jones]

Another big risk as this is a maiden with 2 places only but Scallop's form has been franked by 2 horses behind him in his last race  winning recently.

---------------------------

1130am - Richard Gasquet ( 1.26) v Nick Kyrgios  - 14th v 144th  - 1-0 H2H - slightly suspiciously high odds for such a gap in the rankings.

230pm - Angelique Kerber ( 1.44)v Heather Watson  - 7th v 60th - Guernsey's Own, Heather, likely to be a plucky loser? She is in the ascendency and on home soil, but a top 10 player is,well, a top 10 player.

430pm - Feliciano Lopez ( 1.19)v Ante Pavic  - 26th v 163rd - another big gap in the rankings

530pm - Simona Halep( 1.07) v Lesia Tsurenko  - 3rd v 170th and 3-0 H2H - not sure we'll see 1.2+ odds in the 2-0 set betting market. Halep was hugely impressive in her opener and I will have  a sneaky win only punt on her.

25th june crating value

Here is an excerpt of April's article on "creating value from short prices"
Follow this step-by-step strategy to optimise your chances of collecting an evens return time after time.
1) Ensure you know your fractional and decimal odds.  This will allow you to use both the bookmakers and www.betfair.com as your resources with which to mine for 1/5, 1 /4 and 1/3 shots. For the record, a 1/5 shot is 1.20 in decimal odds. A 1 /4 shot is 1.25 in decimal odds. A 1/3 shot is 1.33 in decimal odds.
2) Don’t restrict yourself to backing selections in order to make your quota of 1/5 , 1/4 and 1/3 shots. With our ability to lay ( as the patriarch reminds us this month), we can get the same return as a 1/5 , 1/4 and 1/3 shot by laying selections at certain prices. Keep a note of the lay odds below which correspond to the same as backing the selection.
1/5 shot is 1.20  - lay a selection at 6.00  . Backing a 1.20 shot with £100 will return £20. Laying a selection at odds of 6.00 for £100 liability ( not stake) will return around £20.
1 /4 shot is 1.25 – lay a selection at 5.00. Backing a 1.25 shot with £100 will return £25. Laying a selection at odds of 5.00 for £100 liability ( not stake) will return around £25.
1/3 shot is 1.33 – lay a selection at 4.00. Backing a 1.33 shot with £100 will return £33. Laying a selection at odds of 4.00 for £100 liability ( not stake) will return around £33.

What I am going to attempt now is to try and sniff out a 1.2, 1.25 or 1.3 shot which can be backed, or a 6.00, 5.00 or 4.00 shot which can be layed.
 I will use the techniques I suggested within the article. I hope you find it informative


RACING POST SHORTLISTERS/PRICE GAPPERS. We look to find horses with an obvious chance of winning, but we want to back them in the TO PLACE ONLY  market.

Yesterday
Flatcapper placed 3rd, Mange All won, and The cornish cowboy won.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Today
630 Naas
Betting forecast: 4/6 Cougar Mountain, 3/1 Monsieur Power, 4/1 Intisaab, 10/1 Affectionate Lady, 14/1 Edamame, 20/1 County Wexford, 40/1 Siucra, 66/1 Ftstepsinthebrogue.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: The fact that COUGAR MOUNTAIN still holds an entry in the July Cup and the Sussex Stakes suggests that he is a colt of significant promise and a belated winning debut is probably in the offing. In saying that, he will need to be useful to account for the 87-rated Monsieur Power and the Weld newcomer Intisaab. [David Jennings]

3 places here

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
240 Salisbury
Betting forecast: 11/10 Sugar Lump, 5/1 Offshore, 11/2 Three Robins, 13/2 Brazen Spirit, 8/1 Essaka, 10/1 Francis Scott Key, 25/1 Cape Point, 25/1 Cartmell Cleave, 33/1 Henrietta Dancer.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: The Hannon yard has a very good record in this race and has good prospects of enhancing it further, courtesy of promising Nottingham debut second SUGAR LUMP (nap), who is the one to beat even if just reproducing the form of that initial effort. Offshore is narrowly preferred to the selection's stablemate Three Robins for second. [Mel Cullinan]

Hannon/Hughes on a maiden must be respected/

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
505 Worcester
Betting forecast: 10/11 Ilewindelilah, 6/1 Provincial Pride, 10/1 Reach The Beach, 10/1 Sukiyaki, 10/1 Zafaraban, 12/1 Over The Air, 14/1 Do Be Dashing, 14/1 Verdasco, 33/1 Dream Bolt.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Several of these have the potential to win similar races but it's hard to ignore the claims of ILEWINDELILAH (nap), who is 10lb ahead of the handicapper after last week's Uttoxeter success. Provincial Price is second choice.[Jonathan Neesom]

10 lb ahead of the handicapper?

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

TENNIS SHORT PRICES

I have had 2 successful accumulators in the last  2 days, one a 14 player accumulator, the other a 17 player accumulator, all using the limited research in this column. Some matches include straight sets wins ( yesterday's were Serena Williams, Sharapova, and Federer). The accas are paying about 5/1 which is poor value really for a 17 player accumulator, but these early round ultra short priced players are doing the business currently.

1130am - Kevin Anderson ( 1.45) v Edouard Roger Vasselin  - 18th v 50th and 1-1 head to heads ( H2H)

1130am - Goerges/Groenefeld ( 1.24)v Dolonc/Seguel

1130am - Ernests Gulbis( 1.33) v Sergiy Stakhovsky  - 10th v 90th  2-1 H2H

1130am - Yvonne Meusburger v Na Li ( 1.07) - 38th v 2nd

1130am - Kurumi Nara v Venus Williams ( 1.16) - 41st v 31st - I could envision a struggle for Venus today and lay that 1.16 for sure!

1pm - Casey Dellacqua v Agnieszka Radwanska ( 1.22) - 36th v 4th

1pm - Andy Murray v Blaz Rola  - 1.01  - 5th v 92nd

1pm - Tim Puetz v Fabio Fognini ( 1.29) - 251st v 15th

130pm - Misaki Doi v Ekaterina Makarova ( 1.2) - 95th v 22nd

130pm - Jan Hernych v Roberto Bautista Agut ( 1.21) - 285th v 23rd

130pm - Mikhail Youzhny ( 1.23) v Jimmy Wang  - 16th v 147th

145pm - Andrey Kuznetsov v David Ferrer ( 1.09) - 118th v 7th

145pm - Albert Ramos Vinolas ( 1.22) v Hugo Dellien  - 99th v 318th

230pm - Grigor Dimitrov( 1.04) v Luke Saville  - 13th v 236th

3pm - Victoria Azarenka ( 1.18)v Bojana Jovanovski  - 9th v 45th 1-0

3pm - Marin Cilic ( 1.08)v Andreas Haider Maurer  - 29th v ???

3pm - Petra Kvitova ( 1.29) v Mona Barthel  - 6th v 59th 1-0

330pm - Lucie Safarova ( 1.32) v Polona Hercog  - 23rd v 63rd 4-2 H2H

345pm - Sam Querrey v Jo-Wilfried Tsonga ( 1.35) - 67th v 17th 1-1 H2H

430pm - Novak Djokovic( 1.04) v Radek Stepanek  - 2nd v 38th 10-1 H2H

430pm - Henri Laaksonen v Thomaz Bellucci ( 1.15) - 260th v 97th

430pm - Bernard Tomic v Tomas Berdych ( 1.26) - 86th v 6th 0-1 H2H  7-6 6-7 in 2013 Wimbledon sees this 1.26 highly layable early on for Berdych. We should see a bigger price

5pm - Tereza Smitkova v Coco Vandeweghe ( 1.23) - 175th v 51th

5pm - Alison Van Uytvanck v Dominika Cibulkova ( 1.15) - 89th v 10th

545pm - Caroline Wozniacki ( 1.11) v Naomi Broady  - 16th v 163rd

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

FOOTBALL SHORTIES

Nothing yesterday of interest
Today is equally as sparce
5pm - Nigeria v Argentina  - 1.51 away - odds a bit high for this treble exercise


------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SHORTLIST

Yesterday
1145am - Albert Ramos Vinolas ( 1.19)v Martin Cuevas  - 99th v 420th  - big gap in rankings and the right price WIN 2 SETS

130pm - Paolo Lorenzi v Roger Federer ( 1.01) - 83rd v 4th  - if 3-0 sets touches 1.2 in-play, I'd be interested - WIN 3 SETS

315pm - Samantha Murray v Maria Sharapova  ( 1.02) - 247th v 5th  - I doubt we'll see 1.2 ish for 2-0 sets here - WIN 2 SETS

5pm - Daniel Munoz De La Nava( 1.19) v Julian Lenz  - 289th v 989th  - opponent nearly 1000th in the world. 1.19 is reasonable for such a gap, but a reliance on someone 289th in the world - hmmm! He must be 289th in the world not for his consistent winning form!! -  WIN 2 SETS

Nice to see all of the tennis bets coming in. Not quite a treble though although Vinolas and De La Nava would have contributed some way towards that.

Today

240 Salsibury - I hate placing my faith in maidens but this Sugar lump represents Richard Hannon and Richard Hughes who have an amazing historic record with juveniles. Place only remember

1pm - Tim Puetz v Fabio Fognini ( 1.29) - 251st v 15th  - a slightly suspiciously high price for such a rankings gap. But glass half full folks will see this as value.

130pm - Jan Hernych v Roberto Bautista Agut ( 1.21) - 285th v 23rd - another where the rankings gap is quite eyecatching

3pm - Victoria Azarenka ( 1.18)v Bojana Jovanovski  - 9th v 45th 1-0 - same odds as her first round . This is a decent price for such a player as Azarenka, but do remember she has been in slight decline of late, due to injury or perhaps hanging around with that DJ twat with the big hair.

Yet again, there's no football to grab us today.

21st June creating value

Here is an excerpt of April's article on "creating value from short prices"
Follow this step-by-step strategy to optimise your chances of collecting an evens return time after time.
1) Ensure you know your fractional and decimal odds.  This will allow you to use both the bookmakers and www.betfair.com as your resources with which to mine for 1/5, 1 /4 and 1/3 shots. For the record, a 1/5 shot is 1.20 in decimal odds. A 1 /4 shot is 1.25 in decimal odds. A 1/3 shot is 1.33 in decimal odds.
2) Don’t restrict yourself to backing selections in order to make your quota of 1/5 , 1/4 and 1/3 shots. With our ability to lay ( as the patriarch reminds us this month), we can get the same return as a 1/5 , 1/4 and 1/3 shot by laying selections at certain prices. Keep a note of the lay odds below which correspond to the same as backing the selection.
1/5 shot is 1.20  - lay a selection at 6.00  . Backing a 1.20 shot with £100 will return £20. Laying a selection at odds of 6.00 for £100 liability ( not stake) will return around £20.
1 /4 shot is 1.25 – lay a selection at 5.00. Backing a 1.25 shot with £100 will return £25. Laying a selection at odds of 5.00 for £100 liability ( not stake) will return around £25.
1/3 shot is 1.33 – lay a selection at 4.00. Backing a 1.33 shot with £100 will return £33. Laying a selection at odds of 4.00 for £100 liability ( not stake) will return around £33.

What I am going to attempt now is to try and sniff out a 1.2, 1.25 or 1.3 shot which can be backed, or a 6.00, 5.00 or 4.00 shot which can be layed.
 I will use the techniques I suggested within the article. I hope you find it informative

I left you with my single bet of France at 1.34 to win ( 15th June)

RACING POST SHORTLISTERS/PRICE GAPPERS. We look to find horses with an obvious chance of winning, but we want to back them in the TO PLACE ONLY  market.

Yesterday

A winner and a 3rd placed horse ( place payout) and perhaps I should have had faith in the gee-gees yesterday



Today

220 ayr
Betting forecast: 4/6 Pretzel, 6/1 Homestretch, 6/1 Sir Guy Porteous, 10/1 Braidley, 10/1 Mime Dance, 14/1 Azagal, 20/1 Mr Matthews.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Tim Easterby has won two of the last three runnings but his Azagal has a bit to find on recent evidence and, although the penalised Sir Guy Porteous may be able to bag an uncontested lead, he lacks the scope for improvement of PRETZEL (nap). Roger Varian's progressive 3yo finished a highly respectable second to Muteela on his reappearance and, although 7lb higher here, that form was franked in no uncertain terms when the winner followed up in a fiercely competitive handicap at Royal Ascot this week. [Richard Young]

Only 2 places but this is a whopping price gap.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
850 Haydock
Betting forecast: Evs Taqneen, 11/4 Alketios, 5/1 Pantoloni, 5/1 Protected, 33/1 Vale Mentor, 100/1 Echologic.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: This should be a good opportunity for TAQNEEN to make it third time lucky under conditions that suit. Alketios looks his main danger on form, although the well-bred Pantoloni is surely capable of a lot better than he showed on his 2yo debut.[Adrian Cook]
Another 2 place only race but this favourite has progressed from 4th to 2nd
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
805 Lingfield
Betting forecast: 4/6 Passionate Affair, 7/1 Witch From Rome, 8/1 Monsieur Chabal, 10/1 Beauchamp Melba, 12/1 Black Tie Dancer, 12/1 Burmese Breeze, 20/1 Blazing Chilli, 33/1 Archduchess.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Taking a short price about a maiden in an AW seller isn't everyone's idea of fun, but PASSIONATE AFFAIR won't be found an easier opening.[Graham Wheldon]
8 runners and 3 places but a seller. Still this is the biggest price gap of the day

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
405 Newmarket
Betting forecast: 2/7 Made With Love, 5/1 Dream Spirit, 10/1 Four Cheers, 25/1 Bushy Glade, 25/1 Remy, 25/1 Tuddenham.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: This year's Wood Ditton has produced winners even it wasn't the hottest of renewals and runner-up MADE WITH LOVE should be another unless one of the newcomers can trouble him, as it's highly unlikely any of the others to have run will.[Alistair Whitehouse-Jones]
This may be a win only bet here as I cannot see Made with Love touching 1.2 to place.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


TENNIS SHORT PRICES

I should have had faith in Madison Keys yesterday as Heather Watson was not there on merit, she came through because of a retirement from Kvitova

There are actually no tennis bets today. It must be the calm before the Wimbledon storm.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

FOOTBALL SHORTIES

No football bets yesterday. Italy were 1.51 but not nailed on at all. My DRT research actually put up laying them.

5pm - Argentina v Iran - 1.14 Argentina

8pm - Germany v Ghana - 1.32 Germany

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SHORTLIST
It's a toughie today with my usual staple of tennis absent.
Argentina should win comfortably but how do we up the odds to 1.2 at minimum? I would look at perhaps Argentina winning at halftime, or over 3.5 goals ( or whichever goals market is 1.2 ish)
Germany should run out winners against a Ghanaian side who won't be lacking in fitness and will love the conditions.

We may have to delve into the horse racing today to get the treble up?
220 Ayr Pretzel and the 805 Lingfield Passionate affair both have really eyecatching price gaps,One is a 2 the place race and the other a seller ( 3 places available)  which should help us get that 1.2, 1.25 or 1.33 odds we need

CREATING VALUE 20TH JUNE 2014

Here is an excerpt of April's article on "creating value from short prices"
Follow this step-by-step strategy to optimise your chances of collecting an evens return time after time.
1) Ensure you know your fractional and decimal odds.  This will allow you to use both the bookmakers and www.betfair.com as your resources with which to mine for 1/5, 1 /4 and 1/3 shots. For the record, a 1/5 shot is 1.20 in decimal odds. A 1 /4 shot is 1.25 in decimal odds. A 1/3 shot is 1.33 in decimal odds.
2) Don’t restrict yourself to backing selections in order to make your quota of 1/5 , 1/4 and 1/3 shots. With our ability to lay ( as the patriarch reminds us this month), we can get the same return as a 1/5 , 1/4 and 1/3 shot by laying selections at certain prices. Keep a note of the lay odds below which correspond to the same as backing the selection.
1/5 shot is 1.20  - lay a selection at 6.00  . Backing a 1.20 shot with £100 will return £20. Laying a selection at odds of 6.00 for £100 liability ( not stake) will return around £20.
1 /4 shot is 1.25 – lay a selection at 5.00. Backing a 1.25 shot with £100 will return £25. Laying a selection at odds of 5.00 for £100 liability ( not stake) will return around £25.
1/3 shot is 1.33 – lay a selection at 4.00. Backing a 1.33 shot with £100 will return £33. Laying a selection at odds of 4.00 for £100 liability ( not stake) will return around £33.

What I am going to attempt now is to try and sniff out a 1.2, 1.25 or 1.3 shot which can be backed, or a 6.00, 5.00 or 4.00 shot which can be layed.
 I will use the techniques I suggested within the article. I hope you find it informative

I left you with my single bet of France at 1.34 to win ( 15th June)

RACING POST SHORTLISTERS/PRICE GAPPERS. We look to find horses with an obvious chance of winning, but we want to back them in the TO PLACE ONLY  market.

Yesterday

The great war unplaced
Leading Light win
Colour catcher 3rd and places

The Great war the only unplaced horse yesterday

Today

845 Downpatrick

Betting forecast: 4/7 Morning Run, 7/2 Solita, 5/1 Mr Boss Man, 10/1 Honkytonktennessee, 10/1 Scolboa Rock, 12/1 Port Rock, 14/1 Thomas Ledger, 50/1 Agoodnightatspa.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Morning Run accounted for a respectable rival on her debut but it was hard not to be taken by SOLITA at Downpatrick and that performance entitles her to top billing on RPRs.[Alistair Whitehouse-Jones]
Not sure if we will get the 1.2 minimum on Morning Run to place - 1st 8/13
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
655 Limerick
Betting forecast: 7/4 Doonard Prince, 5/1 Fleet Captain, 6/1 In Salutem, 6/1 Knights Templar, 8/1 Almadaa, 10/1 Postillion, 14/1 Avalanche, 16/1 Enigma Code.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Several of these have shown their best form at Dundalk and will be suited by the prevailing ground. However, DOONARD PRINCE looks the one to beat after a fine second at the Curragh. Fleet Captain could be the one for the forecast. [Alan Sweetman]

8 runners and 3 places and "the one to beat" - 3rd 6/4
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


TENNIS SHORT PRICES

All wins in straight sets apart from Halep which was a surprise. Thankfully I did not include her in my Shortlist.
Muguruza was the only loser yesterday. Kvitova retired  - I don't think the match was played.

1pm - Madison Keys ( 1.53) v Heather Watson - win 2 sets
230pm - Pablo Carreno Busta ( 1.08) v Joris De Loore - win 3 sets
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

FOOTBALL SHORTIES

Finland won, scoring 4, 7 goals in the Czech ladies match, Netherlands won and Spain faltered again. Luckily I did not include Spain in my Shortlist

5pm - Italy v Costa Rica  - 1.55 home - lost 0-1
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SHORTLIST
Arguello, Carreno Busto won. Kvitova retired so no bet. I was not interested in the Football. The Great was was unplaced.

Not a day which appeals for a treble for me. Keys and Italy are 1.55 shots which is not a nailed on price is it?

No trebles for me today.

Here is an excerpt of April's article on "creating value from short prices"
Follow this step-by-step strategy to optimise your chances of collecting an evens return time after time.
1) Ensure you know your fractional and decimal odds.  This will allow you to use both the bookmakers and www.betfair.com as your resources with which to mine for 1/5, 1 /4 and 1/3 shots. For the record, a 1/5 shot is 1.20 in decimal odds. A 1 /4 shot is 1.25 in decimal odds. A 1/3 shot is 1.33 in decimal odds.
2) Don’t restrict yourself to backing selections in order to make your quota of 1/5 , 1/4 and 1/3 shots. With our ability to lay ( as the patriarch reminds us this month), we can get the same return as a 1/5 , 1/4 and 1/3 shot by laying selections at certain prices. Keep a note of the lay odds below which correspond to the same as backing the selection.
1/5 shot is 1.20  - lay a selection at 6.00  . Backing a 1.20 shot with £100 will return £20. Laying a selection at odds of 6.00 for £100 liability ( not stake) will return around £20.
1 /4 shot is 1.25 – lay a selection at 5.00. Backing a 1.25 shot with £100 will return £25. Laying a selection at odds of 5.00 for £100 liability ( not stake) will return around £25.
1/3 shot is 1.33 – lay a selection at 4.00. Backing a 1.33 shot with £100 will return £33. Laying a selection at odds of 4.00 for £100 liability ( not stake) will return around £33.

What I am going to attempt now is to try and sniff out a 1.2, 1.25 or 1.3 shot which can be backed, or a 6.00, 5.00 or 4.00 shot which can be layed.
 I will use the techniques I suggested within the article. I hope you find it informative

I left you with my single bet of France at 1.34 to win ( 15th June)

RACING POST SHORTLISTERS/PRICE GAPPERS. We look to find horses with an obvious chance of winning, but we want to back them in the TO PLACE ONLY  market.

Yesterday

Treve came 3rd so placed
Nordic Queen placed again
According to Sarah placed

Today

230 Ascot
Betting forecast: 5/4 The Great War, 9/2 Baitha Alga, 9/2 Mukhmal, 8/1 Mind Of Madness, 8/1 To Be Determined, 16/1 Ahlan Emarati, 16/1 Snap Shots, 33/1 Mignolino, 50/1 Fine Prince.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: This is the smallest field for this race since 2004 but it's not short on quality with Woodcote winner Baitha Alga and Lily Agnes scorer Mukhmal both looking useful colts, while the once-raced maiden winners Snap Shots and Ahlan Emarati could be open to plenty of improvement, with the latter particularly interesting given the ground conditions. The US raider To Be Determined adds interest but without doubt the most exciting runner is THE GREAT WAR, a million-dollar purchase who represents leading connections and has been very impressive in two starts to date. He looks every inch a Group horse in the making and now gets the chance to prove it.[Steve Boow]

Million dollar horse? Wow. Surely he'll place? - UNPLACED

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

425 Ascot
Betting forecast: 11/8 Leading Light, 11/2 Brown Panther, 15/2 Estimate, 8/1 Tac De Boistron, 9/1 Altano, 12/1 Pale Mimosa, 14/1 Royal Diamond, 20/1 Ahzeemah, 20/1 Simenon, 25/1 Missunited, 33/1 Saddler´s Rock, 40/1 Shwaiman, 50/1 Ralston Road, 66/1 Havana Beat, 66/1 Oriental Fox.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Clear preference is for LEADING LIGHT, whose only defeat since his debut came in the Arc, who has very strong form claims and whose performance when winning over 2m as a 3yo here last June offered a very strong clue that this trip will be within range. The only slight negative is stall 14, meaning he may have to travel a touch wide, but he is still a strong fancy to give Ballydoyle a sixth win in this since 2006. With ground concerns for another leading form contender in Tac De Boistron and the reappearing Estimate facing stronger opposition than when winning this last year, Brown Panther is readily preferred as the main danger. Potential improver Shwaiman may come on enough to claim third. [Mel Cullinan]

15 runner Group 1 race. Will Leading light place at least in this highly competitive affair. WINNER

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

550 Lingfield
Betting forecast: 6/4 Colour Catcher, 5/2 Power Play, 3/1 Drumkilbo, 8/1 Midlander, 25/1 Stamp Of Approval, 50/1 Bella Alamoto, 50/1 Just Because, 50/1 Prima Pagina.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: COLOUR CATCHER had a subsequent winner behind when pushing Merdon Castle last time and is preferred to Power Play, who hasn't seen it out in a couple of runs over 5f, among those with experience. Drumkilbo, Lady Cecil's first 2yo runner of the season (Joyeuse was the yard's first 2yo out last season when winning on turf here), looks the most interesting newcomer.[Graham Wheldon]

Look at the betting forecast, 4 horses under 25/1 - will they dominate and thus the favourite place? 3rd 5/6

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------




TENNIS SHORT PRICES

All wins in straight sets apart from Halep which was a surprise. Thankfully I did not include her in my Shortlist.

1215pm - F Arguello ( 1.18) v F Baldi - 116th v 851st - WIN 2 SETS
1245pm - Carreno Busta ( 1.18) v F De Paula - 61st v 498th - WIN 2 SETS
130pm - Muguruza ( 1.35) v Vandeweghe -  27th v 69th -  VAND WINS 2 SETS
230pm - H Watson v Kvitova ( 1.31) - 70th v 6th  - Heather is "at home" - RETIRED

FOOTBALL SHORTIES

Finland won, scoring 4, 7 goals in the Czech ladies match, Netherlands won and Spain faltered again. Luckily I did not include Spain in my Shortlist

12pm - Kazakhstan (W) v Austria (W) - 1.21 away 0-3

6pm - Faroe Islands (W) v Sweden (W) - 1.01 away - 5-0

7pm - Iceland (W) v Malta (W) - 1.01 home 5-0






SHORTLIST
4 out of 4 yesterday so no excuses not to nail your evens treble.

1215pm - F Arguello ( 1.18) v F Baldi - 116th v 851st  - that's a huge gap in rankings. A hope the price remains at 1.18 on Betfair - WIN 2 SETS

1245pm - Carreno Busta ( 1.18) v F De Paula - 61st v 498th  - another huge gap in rankings. -WIN 2 SETS

230pm - H Watson v Kvitova ( 1.31) - 70th v 6th  - Heather is "at home" - Guernsey's own Heather Watson should be a "plucky loser" here at Eastbourne - KVITOVA RETIRED

The football does not appeal today. The World Cup matches are tough to predict

This leaves me perhaps with the  230 Ascot - if the Great War "is every inch a group horse", then he should place at least surely? UNPLACED

creating value 18 june 2014

Here is an excerpt of April's article on "creating value from short prices"
Follow this step-by-step strategy to optimise your chances of collecting an evens return time after time.
1) Ensure you know your fractional and decimal odds.  This will allow you to use both the bookmakers and www.betfair.com as your resources with which to mine for 1/5, 1 /4 and 1/3 shots. For the record, a 1/5 shot is 1.20 in decimal odds. A 1 /4 shot is 1.25 in decimal odds. A 1/3 shot is 1.33 in decimal odds.
2) Don’t restrict yourself to backing selections in order to make your quota of 1/5 , 1/4 and 1/3 shots. With our ability to lay ( as the patriarch reminds us this month), we can get the same return as a 1/5 , 1/4 and 1/3 shot by laying selections at certain prices. Keep a note of the lay odds below which correspond to the same as backing the selection.
1/5 shot is 1.20  - lay a selection at 6.00  . Backing a 1.20 shot with £100 will return £20. Laying a selection at odds of 6.00 for £100 liability ( not stake) will return around £20.
1 /4 shot is 1.25 – lay a selection at 5.00. Backing a 1.25 shot with £100 will return £25. Laying a selection at odds of 5.00 for £100 liability ( not stake) will return around £25.
1/3 shot is 1.33 – lay a selection at 4.00. Backing a 1.33 shot with £100 will return £33. Laying a selection at odds of 4.00 for £100 liability ( not stake) will return around £33.

What I am going to attempt now is to try and sniff out a 1.2, 1.25 or 1.3 shot which can be backed, or a 6.00, 5.00 or 4.00 shot which can be layed.
 I will use the techniques I suggested within the article. I hope you find it informative

I left you with my single bet of France at 1.34 to win ( 15th June)

RACING POST SHORTLISTERS/PRICE GAPPERS. We look to find horses with an obvious chance of winning, but we want to back them in the TO PLACE ONLY  market.
345 Ascot
Betting forecast: 4/6 Treve, 9/2 Magician, 13/2 Mukhadram, 8/1 The Fugue, 12/1 Dank, 50/1 Elkaayed, 50/1 Parish Hall, 100/1 Zambucca.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Treve stands out on her easy Arc win at 1m4f but wasn't as good when losing her unbeaten record on her reappearance and although she may very well still win, she is an unattractive betting proposition at the skinny odds on offer. Provided all eight line up, an each-way bet on THE FUGUE may be the best way to go, as she is a top-flight mare at her best and, on last summer's two Group 1 wins, is well capable of finishing second at worst if John Gosden has got her back to her best after a below-par return (when she suffered a cut heel) in March. Mukhadram can claim third. [Mel Cullinan]

A nice price gapper and 3 places but this is Royal Ascot and a very competitive affair

Treve came 3rd so placed

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
740 Sthl

Betting forecast: 10/11 Nordic Quest, 7/2 Stephen Hero, 5/1 Song Light, 12/1 Sir Note, 14/1 Dubai Celebration, 14/1 Teajaybe, 20/1 Bennachie, 33/1 Finish The Story, 100/1 Danger In The Park, 100/1 Mill Run.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Wincanton winner NORDIC QUEST posted a good effort when second at Kempton last month and looks the one beat here. Stephen Hero may provide the biggest threat.[Chris Wilson]

Nordic Quest to place again?
Nordic Queen placed again
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
435 Uttoxeter
Betting forecast: 6/4 According To Sarah, 6/1 Personal Shopper, 7/1 Mon Reve, 10/1 C J Mackintosh, 10/1 Theionlady, 12/1 Hope Point, 14/1 Hortense Mancini, 14/1 Ilewindelilah, 16/1 Knight Blaze, 20/1 Multiview, 20/1 Simmons, 25/1 Queenswood Bay, 33/1 Jamaddji, 50/1 Boosha, 50/1 Squealy Keely.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: These conditions look key to ACCORDING TO SARAH (nap) and she must have a massive chance of going one better than at Newton Abbot off the very same mark. Irish challenger Personal Shopper can prove best of the rest.[Alistair Whitehouse-Jones]

A "massive chance" eh?

According to Sarah placed

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


TENNIS SHORT PRICES

1245pm - Ebden v Bautista Agut ( 1.27) - 86th v 28th - WIN 2 SETS

130pm - Huta Galung v Verdasco ( 1.2) - 146th v 23rd - WIN 2 SETS

330pm - Halep ( 1.13) v A Beck -  3rd v 55th 2-0 head to heads - LOST 2 SETS

4pm - Lepchenko v Kvitova ( 1.18) - 57th v 6th 0-5 head to heads - WIN 2 SETS

415pm - Chardy ( 1.36)v Berlocq -  43rd v 44th - WIN 2 SETS

FOOTBALL SHORTIES
4pm - Finland (W) v Bulgaria (W) - Finland women are unbackable. How can be get a 1.2 bet? Look for the over x.5 goals market which is priced at 1.2, it could be over 5.5 goals or higher? - 4-0

430pm - Czech Republic (W) v FYR Macedonia (W) - 1.02 home - as above really. 5-2

5pm - Australia v Netherlands - 1.23 away - there have only been a handful of shocks this World Cup so far and I cannot see an Australian win adding to them! 2-3

8pm - Spain v Chile - 1.55 home - last time I included odds this high ( Uruguay) they failed. This is a must win for Spain. If Chile win, they should be through to the round of 16. 0-2




SHORTLIST

When I last left you, I selected only France for my shortlist. That came in, so I want to end this treble today and maybe start a new cycle too.
These bets are not in time order, rather strength order

4pm - Lepchenko v Kvitova ( 1.18) - 57th v 6th 0-5 head to heads - emphatic head to heads and very near to the 1.2 odds minimum WIN

130pm - Huta Galung v Verdasco ( 1.2) - 146th v 23rd - that's a whopping rankings gap.WIN

345 Ascot - Treve might be a good bet to place only if there are 3 places. This is an ARC winner for goodness sake! Negatives? This is a really competitive race with top class animals. WIN

5pm - Australia v Netherlands - 1.23 away  - Aussies don't seem to have a hope in Castlemaine XXXX of winning today if the Netherlands who played Spain turn up tonight.WIN

26th June DRT bulletin

Copenhagen beat Horsens 1-0 so that Horsens avoidance of the draw continues. I was happy with the HJK Helsinki research pointing to a concerted 0-0 , well it ended 0-0 so the under 2.5 goals angle was also successful.
7-0 to Flora Tallin so the speculative over 8.7 goals was within grasp. 6-0 correct score was an excellent gambit and tradable .

On to today

The football teams today are pretty much ideal if you are a scrabble player,  - the Europa League takes centre stage and my research will not be in-depth. Why? Well the markets are generally illiquid meaning trading is not ideal, and the teams are relative unknowns to me , meaning I do not know their strengths/weakenesses. Remember that just because there are match on the in-play coupon, it doesn't mean we have to trade them!

Below EL stands for Europa League.

12pm - Chernomorets Odesa v FK Hirnyk Kryvyi Rih  - 1.27 home
Standout stats

• a ukrainian friendly is of little appeal to me I'm afraid.  If you want to play it's a case of having faith that the odds are accurate for the home side.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
3pm - Kairat Almaty v FK Kukesi  - 1.7 home
Standout stats


Profitable in-play opportunities



------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

4pm - Tartu Santos v Tromso  - 1.15 away
Standout stats

• Estonian v Norwegian teams here 
• Both teams are well into their prospective seasons so won't want for match fitness

Tartu

• Tartu are used to winning domestically, losing only 3 matches since September 2013  - will this stand for anything against apparent stronger opponents?
• Tartu are Europa league debutants. This is a 2 legged match

Tromso

• 3 defeats in 18 matches saw both sides score. Only 1 win for Tromso in their last 4 matches.
• Have scored and conceded in 8 of their last 11 matches
• Tromso are Europa League veterans but have not won in 7 in the EL , failing to score in 6 of those 7, playing the likes of Spurs, Anzhi and Besiktas though.

Profitable in-play opportunities

• this is what we face today. Apparent imponderables. teams from leagues across Europe, and not the best teams in their leagues.
• Tromso's Europa League record is a cause for concern but look at their opponents, stronger than one of the lesser Estonian teams?
• 1.15 suggests 3/4 goals win and a possible win to nil for Tromso.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

430pm - MyPa v IF Fuglafjordur  - 1.14 home
Standout stats

• this is a Europa League match between Finnish and Faroe Islands teams

MyPa

• no win in 7 matches. Mypa has conceded in their last 7 matches
• MyPa lost to Rapid Bucharest in their last 2 Europa League matches but against apparent minnows have a decent enough record. I think a Faroe Islands team will be easier for MyPa

IF

• only 1 win in 11 in the Faroe Islands. Blimey! That's bad!
• 4 consecutive defeats in 4 Europa League matches conceding 3-5-2-3

Profitable in-play opportunities

• looks like a match for the Finnish home team to win. IF failed to score in their last 2 Europa league matches Look for an easy home win in line with 1.14 odds, 3/4 goals and a possible win to nil.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

430pm - SalPA v SoVo  - 1.4 home
Standout stats



Profitable in-play opportunities






5pm - UE Santa Coloma v Metalurg Skopje  - 1.44 away
Standout stats


Profitable in-play opportunities






545pm - Botev Plovdiv v AC Libertas  - 1.08 home
Standout stats

• Botev Plovdiv's season is yet to start
• Bulgairan v San Marino side. 
• I'm not going to research this match given the pre-existing reputation of San Marino sides and the National side.
• Expect a thrashing in line with the 1.08 odds, and a goal or 2 before halftime. 4+ goals if the odds are accurate. A concerted 0-0 must be layed therefore.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

6pm - IFK Goteborg v Fola Esch  - 1.1 home
Standout stats

• this is a Europa League match between a Swedish top flight side and a Luxembourg side.
• AS with the San Marino and Andorran sides , oppose Luxembourg league sides in Europe.
• Fola Esch lost 4-0 to Elfsborg so look at that as a template today.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


7pm - Cukaricki v UE Sant Julia  - 1.1 home
Standout stats

• Europa League match between Serbian and Andorran sides. As with San Marino sides, lay these minnows both at international level and when their league teams are represented in Europe.
• No research for me given the Andorran opponents. Sant Julia have lost all 8 Europa League matches all without scoring and conceding between 2 and 5 goals.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
7pm - Hibernians v Spartak Trnava  - 1.44 away
Standout stats

• this is not THAT Hibernians , this is the Maltese Hibernians and they are playing a Hungarian side

Hibernians

• only 1 win in 8 in the Maltese league does not augur well for this Europa league match
• They have scored and conceded in 11 of their last 13 matches
• 9 defeats and a 4-4 for Hibernians when they venture into the Europa League
• They scored and conceded in 6 of their last 7 EL matches

Spartak Trnava

• no draw in their last 15 matches, winning 12 of them
• were not in the EL in 2012, and have a reasonable history in the competition.They have lost to Steaua Bucharest, Lokomotiv Moscow and Levski Sofia recently in their last 10 EL matches

Profitable in-play opportunities

• Hibernians look like they will concede at some stage today so that is a reasonable angle in, particularly if they score first. Will Hibs continue to score and concede? It seems with the away side that it takes a good one to beat them, so favour them today.

7pm - RNK Split v Mika  - 1.31 home
Standout stats

• Croat v Armenian sides in the Europa League
• Mika have the apparent fitness advantage of 28 matches played this season

Split

• 4 consecutive wins in friendlies is a good pipe opener for this EL match.
• they have score dand conceded in 7 of their last 8 matches
• only 3 defeats in 16 at home is strong home form 
• only 4 Europa League matches saw wins against Domzale, a 0-0 home draw to Fulham and 2-0 away loss to Fulham

Mika

• only 2 losses in 13 matches in Armenia.
• Mika have a really poor record in the EL, only 3 wins since 2000. In their last 7 matches, they have not won, but the matches have been tight 1-1, 1-0,0-0, 1-0, 1-0, 1-0, 1-1
• 3 consecutive 1-0 losses away in the El, part of 8 consecutive away defeats for Mika

Profitable in-play opportunities

• Split have the strong home form which favours them. Mika though could be tough cookies here, but end up valiant losers? Their EL matches have been really tight, either 1-0 loss or 1-1 .The market expects Split to win here, but I would look at 2-0 max here..

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

7pm - Rudar v KF Laci  - 1.38 home
Standout stats


Profitable in-play opportunities






730pm - SS Folgore-Falciano v Buducnost Podgorica  - 1.3 away
Standout stats


Profitable in-play opportunities






730pm - Vale of Leithen FC v Dumbarton  - 1.19 away
Standout stats

• Scottish Football league team v Championship team Dumbarton in a friendly
• Vale of Leithen have conceded 4-3-7 in their last 3 matches.
• Dumbarton have not had a match since May 2014

Profitable in-play opportunities

• another terrible match on a terrible In-play coupon today. Faith in the team from the better league

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


745pm - Aberdeen v Daugava Riga  - 1.09 home
Standout stats

• this is a scottish v latvian Europa League match. We know Aberdeen

Aberdeen

• Aberdeen have just been playing friendlies recently
• only 1 win in 13 Europa Leauge matches for Aberdeen
• They have played the likes of Bayern, Sigma, panathaniakos so that poor run is not unexpected

Daugava Riga

• debutants to the Europa League

Profitable in-play opportunities

• faith in Aberdeen here? Not much knowledge of the away side.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

745pm - Derry v Aberystwyth  - 1.47 home
Standout stats

• Ireland v Wales in the Europa League and Derry are 17 matches into their season.

Derry

• have conceded 2 in 4 of their last 5 league matches winning only 1 match
• only 1 win in 6 matches at home in all competitions
• Derry have played some good teams in the Europa league recently, such as PSG, Skonto, CSKA Sofia, and Trabzonspor and obviously struggled.

Aberystwyth

• yet to start their season
• only 3 losses in 17 matches so are in a good vein of form domestically.
• Aberystwyth are newcomers to the Europa League

Profitable in-play opportunities

• tentative odds for Derry, but they have the match fitness , home advantage and experience of this competition against some higher level opposition.
• Favour Derry against a Welsh side who have the winning thread domestically and who may offer resistance.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

815pm - Stjarnan v Bangor City  - 1.56 home
Standout stats


Profitable in-play opportunities





815pm - Zeljeznicar v FK Lovcen  - 1.71 home
Standout stats


Profitable in-play opportunities

creating value 15th June

Here is an excerpt of April's article on "creating value from short prices"
Follow this step-by-step strategy to optimise your chances of collecting an evens return time after time.
1) Ensure you know your fractional and decimal odds.  This will allow you to use both the bookmakers and www.betfair.com as your resources with which to mine for 1/5, 1 /4 and 1/3 shots. For the record, a 1/5 shot is 1.20 in decimal odds. A 1 /4 shot is 1.25 in decimal odds. A 1/3 shot is 1.33 in decimal odds.
2) Don’t restrict yourself to backing selections in order to make your quota of 1/5 , 1/4 and 1/3 shots. With our ability to lay ( as the patriarch reminds us this month), we can get the same return as a 1/5 , 1/4 and 1/3 shot by laying selections at certain prices. Keep a note of the lay odds below which correspond to the same as backing the selection.
1/5 shot is 1.20  - lay a selection at 6.00  . Backing a 1.20 shot with £100 will return £20. Laying a selection at odds of 6.00 for £100 liability ( not stake) will return around £20.
1 /4 shot is 1.25 – lay a selection at 5.00. Backing a 1.25 shot with £100 will return £25. Laying a selection at odds of 5.00 for £100 liability ( not stake) will return around £25.
1/3 shot is 1.33 – lay a selection at 4.00. Backing a 1.33 shot with £100 will return £33. Laying a selection at odds of 4.00 for £100 liability ( not stake) will return around £33.

What I am going to attempt now is to try and sniff out a 1.2, 1.25 or 1.3 shot which can be backed, or a 6.00, 5.00 or 4.00 shot which can be layed.
 I will use the techniques I suggested within the article. I hope you find it informative

Great day yesterday, perhaps I should rush more often! Tampines Rovers WIN, HIFK WIN, Kohlschreiber WIN, Wawrinka WIN, Nishikori WIN. You will have made a successful treble yesterday.

RACING POST SHORTLISTERS/PRICE GAPPERS. We look to find horses with an obvious chance of winning, but we want to back them in the TO PLACE ONLY  market.

530 Cork
Betting forecast: 4/5 Achnaha, 5/1 Rightway, 8/1 Muileata, 8/1 Tar Isteach, 8/1 Zarawi, 10/1 The Scourge, 14/1 Giorgi, 14/1 Law Equity, 25/1 Dangerous Flower, 25/1 Halul, 33/1 Chase The Challis, 50/1 Hedge Ffund.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: With an official rating of 93 ACHNAHA has very strong prospects in a maiden of this standard. There is not much between several of those with place clams, such as Zarawi, Tar Isteach and Muileata. [Alan Sweetman]

Price gapper with a solid handicap mark running in a maiden. A sure thing to place? Yesterday's maiden failed to place.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
245 Salisbury
Betting forecast: Evs Belle D´or, 4/1 Alys Love, 9/2 Makruma, 10/1 Lilly Junior, 16/1 Cayman Cry, 20/1 Dubai Hadeia, 33/1 Perfect Outcome, 33/1 Shanghai Sunrise.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Alys Love and Makruma have some decent form but they did not show it last time, whereas BELLE D'OR (nap) looks to have both the form and the potential to make this an excellent opportunity judged on her close call first time out at Newmarket.[Richard Austen]

Always risky these maidens as we saw yesterday. 3 places available.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TENNIS SHORT PRICES

1245pm - Mannarino v Zopp - 1.38 Mann
2pm - Ma Gonzalez ( 1.36) v G Elias

FOOTBALL SHORTIES
12pm - Denmark (W) v Iceland (W) - 1.32 home
6pm - Hafnarfjordur v Thor - 1.26 home
8pm - France v Honduras - 1.34 home
11pm - Argentina v Bosnia - 1.39 home

SHORTLIST
I hope you saw yesterday why I don't like horse racing. A maiden with a good chance finishes 3rd in a 2 the place race , making me reluctant to follow up with a horse racing selection today. Rosol won and Uruguay shockingly lost, but their odds were too high. Did you play?
8pm - France v Honduras - 1.34 home - although South American teams have been winning consistently, France look really solid against a Honduras side who failed to score in 2010.
This would be a solitary selection for me today.

14th June 2014 Creasting value

Here is an excerpt of April's article on "creating value from short prices"
Follow this step-by-step strategy to optimise your chances of collecting an evens return time after time.
1) Ensure you know your fractional and decimal odds.  This will allow you to use both the bookmakers and www.betfair.com as your resources with which to mine for 1/5, 1 /4 and 1/3 shots. For the record, a 1/5 shot is 1.20 in decimal odds. A 1 /4 shot is 1.25 in decimal odds. A 1/3 shot is 1.33 in decimal odds.
2) Don’t restrict yourself to backing selections in order to make your quota of 1/5 , 1/4 and 1/3 shots. With our ability to lay ( as the patriarch reminds us this month), we can get the same return as a 1/5 , 1/4 and 1/3 shot by laying selections at certain prices. Keep a note of the lay odds below which correspond to the same as backing the selection.
1/5 shot is 1.20  - lay a selection at 6.00  . Backing a 1.20 shot with £100 will return £20. Laying a selection at odds of 6.00 for £100 liability ( not stake) will return around £20.
1 /4 shot is 1.25 – lay a selection at 5.00. Backing a 1.25 shot with £100 will return £25. Laying a selection at odds of 5.00 for £100 liability ( not stake) will return around £25.
1/3 shot is 1.33 – lay a selection at 4.00. Backing a 1.33 shot with £100 will return £33. Laying a selection at odds of 4.00 for £100 liability ( not stake) will return around £33.

What I am going to attempt now is to try and sniff out a 1.2, 1.25 or 1.3 shot which can be backed, or a 6.00, 5.00 or 4.00 shot which can be layed.
 I will use the techniques I suggested within the article. I hope you find it informative

Great day yesterday, perhaps I should rush more often! Tampines Rovers WIN, HIFK WIN, Kohlschreiber WIN, Wawrinka WIN, Nishikori WIN. You will have made a successful treble yesterday.

RACING POST SHORTLISTERS/PRICE GAPPERS. We look to find horses with an obvious chance of winning, but we want to back them in the TO PLACE ONLY  market.

245 Hexham
Betting forecast: 4/5 Vyta Du Roc, 11/4 Mister Spingsprong, 7/2 Shrewd, 20/1 Noir Girl, 20/1 Oleohneh, 25/1 The Banastoir, 33/1 Sparville, 50/1 Alwaysrecommended, 50/1 Indalo Return, 50/1 Poppies Milan, 100/1 Catchthemoonlight, 100/1 Spread Boy, 100/1 Stuckinthefence, 200/1 Red Mystique.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Mister Spingsprong is looking a bargain buy at six grand but he may struggle to concede 4lb to VYTA DU ROC, who has always been described as a nice prospect by Nicky Henderson and he looked one at Uttoxeter.[Alistair Whitehouse-Jones]
Only 3 under 20/1 to dominate?
-----------------------------------------------------
100 Musselburgh
Betting forecast: 4/6 Lily Moreton, 9/2 Straightothepoint, 13/2 Penalty Scorer, 8/1 Just The Tip, 10/1 Come On Galey.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: The speedy LILY MORETON sets a decent standard having finished placed on both starts (good/soft). Straightothepoint could be the main threat although it would be no surprise to see an improved run from Just The Tip on her second start, especially if well backed. [Ben Hutton]

Only 2 places and these are 2 year olds ( yuk) but the price ggapper here has 2 places already so a hope she finishes in the first 2 in this maiden.



TENNIS SHORT PRICES

12pm - A Ivanovic ( 1.21) v S Zhang - 13th v 36th and 1-0 head to heads
12pm - Kohlschreiber ( 1.23) v Falla - kohl a very lucky boy indeed to beat Dustin Brown
1pm - Rosol( 1.16) v Lammer-  56th v 490th
130pm -  Ma Gonzalez ( 1.27)v G Mina -1st seed for France this Gonzalez
315pm - M Rodrigues v G Elias ( 1.34)  - 512th v 168th

FOOTBALL SHORTIES
2pm - Skive v Aarhus Fremad - 1.32 home
3pm - HJK Helsinki v VPS - 1.37 home
8pm - Uruguay v Costa Rica - 1.47 home



SHORTLIST
.1pm - Rosol( 1.16) v Lammer-  56th v 490th  - just below the 1.2 minimum for our evens treble but that is an impressive rankings gap. WIN
8pm - Uruguay v Costa Rica - 1.47 home - not sure how to play this as the odds are too high really. Our treble maximum is 1.33. Uruguay must win really with England and Italy likely to cut each other's throats.
I haven't been able to research the football as yet. Finland is at www.soccerstats.com and www.soccerway.com if you want to to that yourself. LOSS 1-3
100 Musselburgh
Betting forecast: 4/6 Lily Moreton, 9/2 Straightothepoint, 13/2 Penalty Scorer, 8/1 Just The Tip, 10/1 Come On Galey.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: The speedy LILY MORETON sets a decent standard having finished placed on both starts (good/soft). Straightothepoint could be the main threat although it would be no surprise to see an improved run from Just The Tip on her second start, especially if well backed. [Ben Hutton]

Only 2 places and these are 2 year olds ( yuk) but the price ggapper here has 2 places already so a hope she finishes in the first 2 in this maiden. LOST

DRT bulletin 16th June 2014

Well done Switzerland and if you kept faith in the Toblerone munchers, you'd have been amply rewarded as Ecuador took the lead.
This was a win-win match it seems. If you followed the trend of South American sides winning, and backed Ecuador pre-match , then you'd have had a great trade when they scored first.
If you kept faith in the Swiss, then a backing of the Swiss 0-1 down, or a lay of Ecuador 1-0 up, would have been rewarded.
Any 90 minute layers of the draw would also have been rewarded.
A nice win to nil for the Cheese eating surrender monkeys against an Honduras team likely to be the whipping boys again.
Both teams scored in the Argentina match to continue a good run of BTTS bets this World Cup. The Argies did not quite manage the 3 goals which have been prevalent amongst the better teams and did need a Messi goal to claim victory.

4pm - FC Minsk v BATE Borisov - 1.59 away
Standout stats

Profitable in-play opportunities




5pm - Gomel v Dinamo Brest - 1.34 home
Standout stats

Profitable in-play opportunities



5pm - Germany v Portugal - 2.14 home
Standout stats

Profitable in-play opportunities



8pm - Iran v Nigeria - 2.16 away
Standout stats

Profitable in-play opportunities



11pm - Ghana v USA - 2.56 home
Standout stats

Profitable in-play opportunities

drt bulletin 13th june 2014

3-0 to KTP was as easy as you like.  I did say a 0-0 was in play in the Bate Borisov match and so it ended 0-0. Hope you paid heed. 4-1 to Viking was another easy-as-you-like match.
'These are good DRT matches. As you see the favourite does the business so if the underdog gets the first blow in, then we are in business.
And that is what happened with Brazil v Croatia. Hope you got on at 0-1.

145pm - Harimau Muda B v Tampines Rovers - 1.31 away

The last time these 2 met, it was 3-2 to Tampines Rovers with 2 Tampines 90th+ minute goals. I turned £2 into about £260! Not bad.

Harimau I have researched recently and they are pants. This is a great DRT match if they repeat the dose against Tampines Rover. Lightning can't strike twice can it?

--------------------------------------------------------------------------

3pm - FK Dainava v FK Suduva - 1.07 away

Standout stats

• another Latvian league match.This is 5th v 10th of 10 after 16 games. Sudova have 3 points.
• 4-0, 5-0, 5-0 in the last 3 head to heads in Sudova's favour and 1.07 suggests a replication of that.
• 6-0, 5-0, 6-0, 2-0 for Dainava until they won 2-0 v Banga and lost 9-1 to Zalgiris.
• I'll end the research here. I think you get the idea.

Profitable in=play opportunities

• the assumption is for another handsome tonking. 5-0 starters? If we get a concerted 0-0, then back over 5.5 goals at enhanced odds ( unless the match is illiquid).
• If the 1st half is 0-0 for a while, then lay the 0-0 halftime score, again with that liquidity proviso.
• Just hope and pray that Sudova lead 0-1 coming into the 90th minute!!
• These matches are, perversely, good DRT matches. THe away side is so strongly fancied that anything other than a comfortable win is a shock.

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

430pm - HIFK v FC Jazz - 1.51 home

Standout stats

• the Ykkonen was very readable yesterday although the strong market leaders did not allow for a DRT
• only 1 head to head was a friendly , a 1-0 win for HIFK
• this is 3rd v 8th of 10 in this Finnish league, after only 8 matches. Very early Diana-Dors,

HIFK

• some 6 points from the 2nd placed so very much " best of the rest"
• they started this season with a loss, and ended their 8 matches with a loss, and inbetween we've seen 4 wins and 2 score draws.
• HIFK when not losing, have scored 2-2-1-4-4-4
• Only 3 home matches this season see a win, draw and a win.The wins were to nil

FC Jazz

• only 2 wins in 8 this season
• Failed to score in 4 of their last 5 matches. 
• have only had one draw away since July 2013 in all competitions
• win, 1-0 loss, 1-4 win away this season
• the away wins were v current 9th and 10th ( of 10)

Profitable in-play opportunities

• good DRT league this league, albeit favs winning with ease. Jazz have only beaten 9th and 10th away and are expected to struggle against "best of the rest" HIFK.
• another 2+ goals for HIFK? Possible win to nil as well with Jazz failing to score in 4 of their last 5 matches.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------

430pm - VIFK v Sporting Kristina - 1.15 home

Standout stats


Profitable in=play opportunities

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

5pm - Mexico v Cameroon - 2.28 home

Standout stats

• this is a must win for these sides this evening , what with Brazil likely to nail a qualifying spot from Group A
• this will be a toughie to evaluate as one team is South American, the other African.
• these 2 have not met before.

Mexico

• 2 consecutive 0-1 friendly defeats to Bosnia and Portugal suggest some defensive solidity as Bosnia had 2 of the top 3 scorers in World Cup Euro qualifying in their ranks, and the Pork and Cheese have a certain massive winker .
• If we look at Mexico's friendlies in the run up to the World Cup, they have conceded 0-0-2-0-1-1-1
• 80th, 41st and 90th minutes for goal concessions in the 3 most recent friendlies. It is tough of course to take friendlies on face value as managers might do a "Woy" and shuffle the pack for some games, thus not giving us a true reflection of the side in action.
• Mexico away from home have conceded 2-1-1-2-2-2-2-2 in their recent matches in all competitions. Is this stat relevant today though, as both teams are really away from home, albeit Mexico will be feeling the love more!
• Mexico have had a dire last 2 World Cups . In 2006 they only beat Iran. In 2010 they only beat France ( and it was THAT France!)

Cameroon

• There have been goals in recent Cameroon matches. 5-6-2-3-4-1  - that 1 was a 1-0 win over Moldova.
• There was a big gap for Cameroon in World Cups, 2002 and then 2010. I'll note 2010. In 2010, Cameroon lost all matches 1-0 v Japan, 1-2 v Denmark, and 1-2 v Netherlands.
• Teams in 2010 tended to score at around the halfhour mark. If this continues, then it is worth delaying entry into the market.

Profitable in-play opportunities

• This match does not appeal at all for me. There is an argument for both teams scoring if we take Mexico's away goals concesssions ( quite often 2) and Cameroon's total goals counts. I am though clutching at straws here.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

530pm - SaPa v HPS - 1.34 away

Standout stats

Profitable in=play opportunities

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

6pm - Rynninge v KB Karlskoga - 1.44 home

Standout stats

Profitable in=play opportunities

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

745pm - Cobh Ramblers v Shelbourne - 1.39 away

Standout stats

Profitable in=play opportunities

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

8pm - Spain v Netherlands - 1.85 home

Standout stats

• the 2010 World Cup Final is the last head to head, a 0-0 after 90 minutes. There have been a number of close encounters over the years between these 2, always one goal or less in it.
• Both sides were World Cup Finalists in 2010

Spain

• Spain's last 3 friendlies see them trying to keep a clean sheet - is this a deliberate act? 3 wins to nil?
• only 2 defeats in 90 minutes in all competitions since May 2012 ( could be longer, soccerway only goes as far as there.)
• 6 wins in their last 7 matches in all competitions. 14 wins in their last 18 matches, only a 0-0 draw with Italy, a 2-2 friendly draw with Chile , a 3-0 loss to brazil and a 1-0 loss to South Africa marred their recent run.
• Spain's last 4 World Cup matches have been 1-0 , well the last was 1-0 after extra time. Spain only had a single over 2.5 goals match in their 2010 campaign. It is not impressive in an attacking sense, but effective nonetheless.
• Spain kept 5 clean sheets in their last 6 matches in the World Cup
• I cannot split matches into home and away form of course when looking specifically at the World Cup as all matches not played in Spain will be away , but then they'll also be away for Spain's opponents.

Netherlands

• only 1 loss in 21 matches sees the Dutch in good form, albeit with only 2 wins in 6 matches. 
• The Dutch last 2 friendlies were wins to nil v Ghana and Wales.
• The Dutch's 2010 was in stark contrast to Spain's but nevertheless obviously as effective as both sides met in the Final.
• The Dutch had a run of 4 over 2.5 goals matches before the World Cup final, and these matches saw both teams scored. The first 2 matches though ( group) of 2010 saw 2-0 and 1-0 wins so will the Dutch revert to this , in this Group stage?

Profitable in-play opportunities

• it's a tricky one this one. Revenge is in the air. Both sides are effective defensively in early group stages of the World Cup.
• Australia and Chile are the only other teams in Group B and a draw would actually suit either team tonight.
• Is 0-0 worth backing pre-match in the hope the World Cup Final 2010 is played out again? I think it might have legs?
• Spain show a distinct defensive solidity and nick a goal pattern, as did the Dutch in their first 2010 matches before letting loose. 

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

-------------------------------------------------------------------------