footballtradingresearch: May 2014

Saturday, 31 May 2014

1 June 2014 DRT bulletin

2pm - Helsingborgs v Falkenbergs - 1.64 home
Standout stats

no head to heads so I assume the away side are newccomers to the top flight
this is 12th v 10th after 11 matches so the away side are having a reasonable start to the season

Helsingborgs

6 defeats this season. only 1 loss at home, 0-1 v Malmo
only 2 clean sheets this season
only one loss at home was 0-1 v top side.Have scored and conceded in 3 of 5 home matches.
have scored 6 of their 8 home goals second half

Falkenbergs

undefeated in 5 matches
2 consecutive away clean sheets
have lost matches to 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 6th and 7th,
have failed to score away v current top 9 teams
4 0-0's at halftime in 5 away matches
have conceded 5 of 6 away matches in last 1/4 hour of matches

Profitable in-play opportunities

no head to heads so the away side could surprise. They are on a solid run at present but have only scored in 1 of 5 away matches and may find their match against an established home side today.
4 0-0's at halftime away for the away side.
too early in the season for stats patterns so this is conjecture on my part. Perhaps a 0-0- back to lay trade in the hope the away side keep a 0-0 to halftime again.

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3pm - Marienlyst v Fredericia - 1.53 away
Standout stats

this is the danish 1st division and I am tending towards Marienlyst as a reliably poor team!
3-0 and 4-1 to Fredericia in head to heads.
this is 12th ( of 12) v 8th. Marienlyst have only 14 points from 31 matches so are dire.

Marienlyst

have won their last 2 home matches, part though of a run of 20 matches without a draw, 17 of them being defeats.
the 2 home wins were to nil and were the only 2 clean sheets of the season
14 home matches without a draw
73% over 2.5 goals.
4 0-0's at halftime at home

Frederica

2 consecutive wins to nil
only 2 defeats in 8 matches.only 1 win in 9 aways was last match, a 0-1 so a bit dodgy away from home

Profitable in-play opportunities

I thought Marienlyst could be opposable but their opponents are pretty poor themselves away. The value call is a Marienlyst win to nil, but surely not a 3rd consecutive home win to nil, with only 2 clean sheets all season.

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330pm - Ferencvaros v Paks - 1.37 home
Standout stats

Profitable in-play opportunities

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430pm - Elfsborg v Malmo FF - 2.34 home
Standout stats

Profitable in-play opportunities

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430pm - Finland U21 v Moldova U21 - 1.58 home
Standout stats

Profitable in-play opportunities

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5pm - Dnepr Mogilev v BATE Borisov - 1.34 away
Standout stats

Profitable in-play opportunities

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7pm - USA v Turkey - 2.48 home
Standout stats

Profitable in-play opportunities

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730pm - Germany v Cameroon - 1.28 home
Standout stats

no recent head to heads but 2 wins to nil historically for Germany
this is a friendly

Germany

only 1 defeat in 19 matches in all competitions
5 clean sheets in their last 8 matches
unbeaten in 8 at home and 4 consecutive clean sheets at home
only 1 defeat in 9 friendlies was a 3-4 v USA
3 consecutive clean sheets in friendlies in 1-0, 1-0, 0-0 scorelines
only 2 defeats in 8 friendlies at home were v France and Argentina.
2 consecutive home clean sheets in friendlies

Cameroon

only 1 win in 9 friendliues was against Macedonia.
a run of 6 without scoring has ended with Cameroon scoring in their last 3 friendlies.

Profitable in-play opportunities

will Cameroon score again? They did in defeat to Paraguay.Germany look strong. But a clean sheet for Germany like their last 3 clean sheets in friendlies.

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730pm - Sweden v Belgium - 2.32 away
Standout stats

this could be an interesting friendly given Belgium have such a wealth of talent in this generation.
no recent head to heads of relevance

Sweden

only 1 draw in 18 friendlies was a 0-0 , so is that a good angle in? Lay a late draw?
2 consecutive defeats in friendlies v Turkey and Denmark
no draw in 8 home friendlies, saw 6 wins and 2 losses

Belgium

only 1 win in their last 5 friendlies . Belgium have a reputation for lots of goals in friendlies 6-3-3-6-0-2-5-4-6 in recent friendlies can offer us hope for a goal fest today
only 3 wins in 14 aways sees the Belgians unlucky travellers. They have scored and conceded in 3 of their last 4 away friendlies

Profitable in-play opportunities

can we hope for the avoidance of a draw here?
Both teams might be able to score as there seems to be a good amount of goals in Belgium friendlies - 5-4-6 in their last 3.
Remember though folks that this is a friendly so don't put the mortgage on.

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8pm - France v Paraguay - 1.41 home
Standout stats

no recent head to heads.
this is another friendly and predictably the choice of South American opponents for France.

France

6 wins and a defeat in their last 7 matches in all competitions and you suspect the French will want to keep this winning streak going.
5 of the last 6 winnings were to nil
4 consecutive clean sheets in friendlies sees a 0-0 and 3 wins.
3 consecutive home friendly wins.

Paraguay

only 2 defeats in 17 friendlies and a recent 1-2 win over Cameroon in this pre-World Cup run of friendlies
have scored and conceded in 5 of their last 6 friendlies.
only 1 draw in 14 away friendlies was a 3-3 so Paraguay look good possible lay the draw candidates.
have scored and conceded in 4 of their last 5 away friendlies.

Profitable in-play opportunities

will Paraguay score and concede again? France seem to be focussing on keeping clean sheets in the run up to this World Cup, and that is expected with Laurent Blanc in charge.
Who will out? Will Paraguay score again, or with this adept French defence hold firm. If you think France can keep a clean sheet then correct score 2-0 starters is a goer?

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815pm - Hafnarfjordur v Vikingur Reykjavik - 1.29 home
Standout stats

Profitable in-play opportunities

creating value 31/5

525 Chester

Betting forecast: 13/8 Empress Adelaide, 8/1 Dolphin Rock, 8/1 Las Verglas Star, 8/1 No Dominion, 10/1 Hydrant, 11/1 Skytrain, 12/1 Gabrial The Duke, 12/1 Halfsin, 12/1 Tatting, 14/1 Heavy Metal, 25/1 El Bravo.

One hell of a price gap but a 230 day absence to overcome. As ever I would recommend tennis and footy above the horse racing
130pm - Petkovic ( 1.28)v Mladenovic - 27th v 103rd and 1-0 - a nice rankings gap but do note that the deeper we get into a tournament the more even the matches will be despite the odds discrepancy
5pm - Sparta Prague v Vysocina Jihlava - 1.33 home

Friday, 30 May 2014

drt bulletin 31st may 2014

It's mostly friendlies today as you'd expect prior to a World Cup. The key here is to check motivation in friendlies by looking at past history. Do teams go gung ho? Is there a laissez-faire attitude? Is there a specific bent towards attacking or defensive play which is shown exclusively in friendlies ( something the manager is working on perhaps?)

A nice DRT for you night hawks saw Egypt take a 0-2 lead against Chile ( 4/11 shots) only for Chile to end up winning 3-2.

3pm - Croatia v Mali - 1.38 home
Standout stats

no head to heads before for this friendly match

Croatia

will want to lay down a marker being involved in the first world cup match
only 3 defeats in 25 friendlies , they all came since 2012, 2 of them saw both teams score
have scored and conceded in their last 3 friendlies including against Leichtenstein
3 defeats and a win in their last 4 home friendlies.
Croatia have scored and conceded in 5 of their last 6 friendlies at home

Mali

no win in 7 friendlies and have scored and conceded in all of them.
An almost exclusive set of African opponents suggests Croatia may be a step up.
only 2 wins in 14 away friendlies, v Angola and Iran - and they have scored and conceded in their last 5 aways

Profitable in-play opportunities

Croatia have 2 consecutive home friendly defeats so will want that to end. Both sides like scoring and conceding in friendlies although it must be said that Mali's opponents are african largely, and assumed to be weaker opponents

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4pm - Estonia U21 v Russia U21 - 1.39 away
Standout stats

this is the UEFA U21 Championship
Russia have won the last 4 head to heads

Estonia U21

3-0 ( Russia), 2-0, 8-0 losses in their last 3 matches. Yikes!
A 1-0 loss to Russia and 8-0 loss to Denmark in the UEFA u21 Championship recently
Wins have come against the likes of Slovenia and Andorra
only 1 win in 10 home matches in this competition

Russia U21

Russia tend to lose against the cream, such as Spain, Netherlands , Germany and the Danes. Their last 2 wins in this competition have been 1-0 with 90th and 84th minute goals, so beware the Russian bear might be muzzled.
Russia's last 11 away wins in this competition have been to nil

Profitable in-play opportunities

Estonia don't look up to it at all against a Russia side who tend to lose against the best. Slight concerns with Russia's recent goalscoring , late late shows.
Russia tend to win to nil, so on the assumption that they win this one, look for a correct score to nil, perhaps 0-2 starters?

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5pm - Sparta Prague v Vysocina Jihlava - 1.33 home
Standout stats

this is a Czech top flight league match
a run of 4 score draws in head to heads ended with a Sparta 1-4 win latest.
this is 1st v 7th and a degree of safely at the top for Sparta does not make this a must win match

Sparta Prague

only 1 defeat all season came away
a perfect home record, only failing to score 2-4 goals in 1 match
8 clean sheets at home and the maximum number of home goals conceded is 1
have failed to score in only one match
3-3-4-1-5-4 scored in their last 6 matches
86% over 2.5 goals at home

Jihlava

only 2 defeats in 11 matches both came in the last 2 away matches, conceding 3 goals in each of those
have failed to score in only 1 of 12 matches
only 2 away wins. Have lost away to 3rd, 4th, 5th and 6th
64% overs away

Profitable in-play opportunities

an away side conceding 3 goals away recently might be vulnerable to a home side scoring 5-4 in their last 2 matches.
A run of draws ended with an emphatic Sparta win, and it is with Sparta that I'll side today and hope Jihlava score first.
Although there are no half time stats in Czech league, I would venture towards a goal before halftime, so lay 0-0 halftime score low and late

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6pm - Alaves v Numancia - 1.52 home
Standout stats

Spanish segunda division
only 1 recent relevant head to head saw an Alaves 0-2 win this season
this is 21st v 12th here. Alaves win and they could stay up
this is not a match I can be confident about siding with a relegation threatened side who are so short in the betting so I will leave this alone.

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730pm - Netherlands v Ghana - 1.5 home
Standout stats

4-1 back in 2010 for Holland in head to heads
this is a friendly

Holland

since 2008 only Germany, Bulgaria, Belgium and France have beaten Holland in friendlies.
only 2 wins in 10 friendlies includes 6 draws and suggests Holland have currently a certain attitude towards friendlies!
5 consecutive home draws now for the Dutch in friendlies. Surely this is a sequence which will end at some point?
3 of the last 4 home draws were score draws

Ghana

only 1 win in 6 friendlies and Ghana have the same "couldn't care less" attitude it seems
only 2 wins in 25 away friendllies were 1-0's v Cape Verde and namibia

Profitable in-play opportunities

world cup preparation to ensure a proper game of footy between 2 teams who treat friendlies the way Fergie treated the Carling Cup?
Ghana's away record is simply dire. Holland have only won 2 in 10 so the draw is in play here. Surely they'll want to end that run of 5 consecutive home draws?

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730pm - Portugal v Greece - 1.63 home
Standout stats

Portugal have not beaten Greece in 5 matches - bogey team!!
Do note this was 2008 and earlier, pre-Ronaldo

Portugal

only 3 wins in 10 friendlies and a mish mash of 4 draws, 3 defeats ( both teams scoring) and those 3 wins
only 3 defeats in 27 home friendlies since 2004 and in those defeats ( one v Greece), both teams scored
only 2 wins in their last 6 home frineldies though

Greece

only 2 defeats in 16 friendlies suggests a professional attitude?
4 wins , a 0-0 and a 0-2 loss to Korea in their last 7 matches
Greece are unbeaten in 7 away friendlies - winning 5 of them. Tough of course to quantify their opponents as compared with Pork and Cheese.

Profitable in-play opportunities

the value it seems is in opposing Portugal against a possible bogey team, albeit pre-Ronaldo.
Greece are none too shabby in friendlies so 1.63 Portugal looks a little skinny. Remember folks it is a friendly so you must search for "low risk, high reward" trades, in these matches more than any others!

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745pm - Italy v Rep of Ireland - 1.57 home
Standout stats

an Ireland in transition under a new manager and that of course makes them hard to read. Any previous form relates to previous management, so I'll just look to italy here
Drtaw, Draw Ireland, Italy in head to heads

italy

4 score draws and a 1-0 loss to Spain in their last 5 matches
only 1 win in 13 matches in friendlies was against San Marino
5 draws in the last 8 matches were all score draws.

Profitable in-play opportunities

Italy don't half look as if they really couldn't care less in friendlies. That makes their 1.57 very ropey. It's a new Ireland side and perhaps they can show something?

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Wednesday, 28 May 2014

drt bulletin 29th may 2014

A return to Marienlyst conceding at least 2 goals away as the hobos from Hobro won 3-0. The majority of Hobro's goals are scored 2nd half, as my research indicated, apart from what seems to be a rather lucky 4th minute goal, the other 2 goals came in the 83rd and 90th minutes.
Some nice pointers in the England U19 match, especially a suggestion to back 0-0 pre match. The sole goal came in the 90th minute in Ukraine's favour.Thie replicated the last head to head and could have been a great return for late and low 0-0 layers.
Cracking research for the Silkeborg match in suggesting a lay of the team 2-0 up. Well Silkeborg took a 2-0 lead, and the match ended 2-2. There were 2 goals before halftime to make a nice profitable match there.
Both teams did score in the Cameroon match so a day I was lamenting turned out rather well on the research front.
Laying the Saudis too at a nice 3.7 paid off as Georgia won 0-2.

All in all a very pleasing day and a vindication for the importance of research, even if the matches and leagues don't make too much appeal at first glance.

330pm - Al Riffa v Malkiya Club - 1.28 home
Standout stats

Profitable in-play opportunities

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415pm - England Youth v Colombia Youth - 1.79 home
Standout stats

no head to heads

England

a 3-0 win over Qatar, 1-2 loss to Brazil and 1-1 draw with Korea so far in Toulon in 2014

Columbia

Loss, Loss Draw for Columbia. Some collateral form with Qatar. England won 3-0. Columbia drew 1-1
Columbia have only scored a maximum of 1 goal in their last 5 Toulon matches.

Profitable in-play opportunities

unconvincing form for both sides but the Qatar form points to England having the better fire power? If we assume Columbia will score a maximum of 1, then their optimal scoreline will be 0-1. They have conceded in their last 4 though. Is 1-1 a good opening gambit here from a trading perspective?

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630pm - Brazil Youth v Qatar Youth - 1.18 home ( illiquid betting market)
Standout stats

This is the Toulon Tournament

Brazil

are unbeaten since 2013 and all appearances in this Toulon tournament has seen 7 wins and a 1-1 draw with Nigeria
Brazil have scored 2 in each of their last 3 matches
2 is the maximum Brazil have managed in their 2013/2014 Toulon matches

Qatar

Loss and 2 1-1's for Qatar in Toulon
Both Qatari goals were penalties so if Brazil can keep possession we could get a win to nil

Profitable in-play opportunities

the Qatari's only hope seems to be a penalty. If Brazil avoid giving away a penalty, then 2-0 to Brazil seems an obvious start

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730pm - Austria v Iceland - 1.67 home
Standout stats

both sides are preparing for Euro qualifiers in September
no recent relevant head to heads

Austria

a 1-0 win over the USA and 1-1 draw with Uruguary in their last 2 friendlies.
lost 2 recent friendlies at home v Ivory Coast and Greece. Won their last 2 home friendlies v the teams mentioned earlier

Iceland

no draw in 12 friendlies.They have beaten Faroes ( twice) and Andorra, so that's the level we are at here.
concede 3 goals mostly in defeats
only 1 win in 12 away friendlies was against Andorra. have lost 7 of the last 8 away friendlies conceding 2/3/4 goals/

Profitable in-play opportunities

why aren't Austria shorter? Iceland look there for the taking, and at their worst will concede 2-4 goals as they normally do.
Austria have scored 0-0-1-1 in their last 4 home friendlies, that may be behind the 1.67 quote.

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730pm - Bari v Novara - 1.52 home
Standout stats

this is a Seria B match.
8th v 19th. A win for either side could ensure a play-off ( Bari) or survival ( Novara)
the last 2 head to heads have seen a 0-1 Bari win.The goals came in the 51st and 52nd minutes. If you base your conclusions on this alone, then back 0-0 pre-match and lay off at halftime, or lay Bari at 1.52

Bari

no draw in 10 matches sees 8 wins so bang in form
3 home wins in 4. Lost 0-1 to 3rd at home recently.
5 wins in their last 6 matches
against 10th and lower, Bari have only lost 1 match.
8 0-0's at halftime at home
have scored first in 13 home matches.

Novara

despite the need for 3 points, I suppose Bari are so short because Novara have only won 1 away match all season
They have lost away to all of the top 6, but drawn with 7th and 9th - making things interesting playing 8th today!
5 losses and a 0-0 draw in their last 6 away matches
Novara have conceded 3 goals in each of their last 2 away matches
no win in 10 away matches
7 0-0's at halftime away from home
have conceded 24 of their 36 away goals in the 2nd half

Profitable in-play opportunities

needs must for both sides and that might lead to a match which goes against the stats - it is the last match of the season
If we base our conclusions on stats, then the 2 0-1 head to heads, and the halftime 0-0 %'s suggest a possibility for 2nd half goals here. Ditto Novara's concession of 24 2nd half goals away. Back 0-0 pre match therefore and just hope this stays 0-0 for a while?

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730pm - Lanciano v Cittadella - 1.67 the draw
Standout stats

Fat Tony has decreed, this match will be a draw. Quite simply you are either with the draw or against it. We had an odds on draw the other week, where one team went and scored. The other team then ensured a 1-1. The best angle in, therefore is in staying with the draw if a team scores .

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730pm - Palermo v Crotone - 1.46 the draw
Standout stats

as above. Amazing to see a draw at shorter than 1/2 odds

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730pm - Switzerland v Jamaica - 1.27 home
Standout stats

2-0 to the Swiss in 2007

Switzerland

only 1 defeat in 16 in all competitions was 2-1 v Korea in a friendly which saw the Swiss score first
unbeaten in 7 at home
only 3 defeats in their last 17 friendlies
only 2 wins in their last 13 friendlies at home were against Germany and Brazil lol

Jamaica

only 2 wins in 18 were agianst Barbados and St Lucia
only 2 draws in their last 26 friendlies. All friendly draws since May 2009 have been 0-0
no away draw in 15 friendlies

Profitable in-play opportunities

the avoidance of a draw for the Jamaicans looks obvious, unless it's a 0-0
only 2 wins in 13 home friendlies for the Swiss, but Jamaica seem a step down

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745pm - Cork City v Athlone - 1.46 home
Standout stats

Profitable in-play opportunities

745pm - St Patricks v Derry - 1.63 home
Standout stats

Profitable in-play opportunities

745pm - Waterford v Cobh Ramblers - 1.3 home
Standout stats

Profitable in-play opportunities

8pm - England v Peru - 1.29 home
Standout stats

this friendly is at Wemb-er-ley
there are no head to heads

England

England have lost 2 of their last 3 friendlies v Chile and Germany
the last few times England have scored, the goals have come in the 68th and 79th minutes, 29th, 53rd and 70th minutes, and 82nd minute. In friendlies recently, then, we expect a goal more in the 2nd half than the first?
2 losses to nil at home ended with an 82nd minute winner v Denmark. Are England struggling for goals, or are these friendlies being played with the mentality that they are not must wins?

Peru

have not won in their last 6 matches in all competitions
are unbeaten in 7 friendlies including 3 0-0's in their last 6 matches. Chile, who beat England, recently beat Peru 3-1 and 3-0
only 2 defeats in their last 12 away friendlies. Peru have 2 0-0's in their last 3 aways

Profitable in-play opportunities

England have tended to treat friendlies with a blase attitude so note that. England goals in friendlies have tended to be 2nd half goals mostly, so perhaps a back of 0-0 pre match in the hope the Peruvians park the Llama. They have 2 0-0's in their last 3 aways, although have been playing almost exclusively American/South American opponents.

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9pm - Spain v Bolivia - 1.16 home
Standout stats

no recent relevant head to heads

Spain

Since May 2012 only Brazil and South Africa have beaten Spain in all competitions
Since March 2009, only 2 defeats at home in all competitions, and none at home since June 2010
only 1 defeat in 16 friendlies was a 1-0 loss to South Africa in November 2013
have not lost a home friendly since FEbruary 2008, winning all bar a 2-2 v Chile in September 2013

Bolivia

no win in 9 in all competitions includes 4 1-1's and 2 consecutive 1-1's
have not won an away match since March 2007
only 1 loss in 8 friendlies was against Brazil.
4 consecutive away draws now in friendlies

Profitable in-play opportunities

a hope Bolivia score first given Spain's superb home record in friendlies. That's the only way we'll eek out any value, or perhaps do a correct score? Brazil scored 4 against Bolivia.
1.16 suggests 3/4 goals minimum but remember this is a friendly. South Africa recently beat Spain 1-0 , and South Africa are pants.

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Tuesday, 27 May 2014

FOOTBALL SHORTIES
1130am - Japan v Cyprus - 1.17 home

SHORTLIST
All winners yesterday.
115pm - Garcia v Ivanovic ( 1.29) - surely big name Anna Ivanovic can progress?
245pm - Monfils v Hanescu - 1.33 Gael -local lad at the French Open. I think Monfils odds might rise in play and he is by no means a certainty. may be worth risking the "french" aspect of this .
1130am - Japan v Cyprus - 1.17 home - surely home advantage will count for a Japanese side with a good goalscoring record at home in friendlies
Again I would leave the horse racing today, soft and heavy ground at a couple of venues and ultra short priced favourites who are expected to win easily over hurdles and chase fences.
Looks like a riskier feel to it today. We'll see.

Monday, 26 May 2014

creating value 29th May

Here is an excerpt of April's article on "creating value from short prices"
Follow this step-by-step strategy to optimise your chances of collecting an evens return time after time.
1) Ensure you know your fractional and decimal odds. This will allow you to use both the bookmakers and www.betfair.com as your resources with which to mine for 1/5, 1 /4 and 1/3 shots. For the record, a 1/5 shot is 1.20 in decimal odds. A 1 /4 shot is 1.25 in decimal odds. A 1/3 shot is 1.33 in decimal odds.
2) Don’t restrict yourself to backing selections in order to make your quota of 1/5 , 1/4 and 1/3 shots. With our ability to lay ( as the patriarch reminds us this month), we can get the same return as a 1/5 , 1/4 and 1/3 shot by laying selections at certain prices. Keep a note of the lay odds below which correspond to the same as backing the selection.
1/5 shot is 1.20 - lay a selection at 6.00 . Backing a 1.20 shot with £100 will return £20. Laying a selection at odds of 6.00 for £100 liability ( not stake) will return around £20.
1 /4 shot is 1.25 – lay a selection at 5.00. Backing a 1.25 shot with £100 will return £25. Laying a selection at odds of 5.00 for £100 liability ( not stake) will return around £25.
1/3 shot is 1.33 – lay a selection at 4.00. Backing a 1.33 shot with £100 will return £33. Laying a selection at odds of 4.00 for £100 liability ( not stake) will return around £33.

What I am going to attempt now is to try and sniff out a 1.2, 1.25 or 1.3 shot which can be backed, or a 6.00, 5.00 or 4.00 shot which can be layed.
I will use the techniques I suggested within the article. I hope you find it informative

RACING POST SHORTLISTERS/PRICE GAPPERS. We look to find horses with an obvious chance of winning, but we want to back them in the TO PLACE ONLY market.
9pm Fairyhouse -

Betting forecast: 6/4 Circling, 5/1 Diylawa, 6/1 Newton´s Night, 7/1 Sierra Sun, 10/1 Ardbrae Tara, 12/1 Focas Mor, 16/1 Mouskersize, 16/1 Ur Secret Is Safe, 20/1 Lowland Lassie, 20/1 Mount Flora, 33/1 Heart In The Air, 33/1 Just As Well, 66/1 Peddlars Daughter.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: MOUSKERSIZE could be worth a pop at a big price as she shapes as though she can improve at this type of trip. Clearly Circling should win if running to her mark, but she is not all that appealing at likely odds. Diylawa and Newton's Night are both interesting contenders. [Johnny Ward]

A price gapper albeit in a maiden fillies race in Ireland. Still, will Circling place?Wachman/Lordan and 2nd last time out 3rd

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850 Sandown
Betting forecast: 15/8 Abseil, 5/1 Dream Walker, 5/1 Secret Art, 10/1 Dark Emerald, 10/1 Tobacco Road, 12/1 Tinghir, 14/1 Common Touch, 14/1 George Cinq, 16/1 Ishikawa, 16/1 Myboyalfie, 20/1 Jodies Jem.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: At Chester ABSEIL came from last at halfway to finish clear second behind a previous course winner now bordering on Group class and off only a 1lb higher mark his chance is hard to ignore. Dream Walker ran a cracker at Newbury last time and is feared most back in easier company on ground he enjoys.[Alistair Whitehouse-Jones]

A class 4 handicap here and another price gapper. Stoute trained, 312 form -non runner

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600 Wetherby
Betting forecast: 8/15 Izzini, 7/4 Western Diva, 20/1 Conjola, 66/1 Rubyminx.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Western Diva was deemed worthy of a trip to the Punchestown festival this month and certainly wasn't disgraced there, but it's hard to get away from triple bumper winner IZZINI, who created a very good impression when cruising clear on her hurdling debut.[Chris Wilson]

4 horses and 2 places. I am not sure whether the favourite will be anything near 1.2 to place though unplaced

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905 Wetherby
Betting forecast: 2/5 Oscar Time, 8/1 Bow School, 10/1 Locked Inthepocket, 14/1 Working Title, 16/1 Moon Over Miami, 16/1 Radharc Na Mara, 16/1 Unwanted Gift, 16/1 Windy Arbour, 40/1 Castley Lane, 50/1 Dawn Ride, 50/1 Silent Snow, 100/1 Printing Press, 100/1 Quix.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: 2011 Grand National runner-up OSCAR TIME confirmed he retains a significant chunk of ability when comfortably beating a good yardstick at Uttoxeter a fortnight ago and is a cut above today's rivals. Bow School would prefer better ground but has won this race twice before and ran fairly well in a selling handicap hurdle here last month. Locked Inthepocket and Unwanted Gift both cope well with slow ground and, having looked stretched over 3m in points this year, will be suited by today's drop back in trip.[Chris Wilson]

If you cannot get 1.2 minimum in the to place market, you might have to back Oscar time win only - 1st 1/2
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410 Worcester
Betting forecast: 1/2 Parish Business, 6/1 Geton Xmoor, 8/1 C J Mackintosh, 14/1 Heston, 14/1 Kantara Star, 20/1 Arty Farmer, 20/1 Palfrey Boy, 33/1 Blizzard Blues, 50/1 Mister Toes, 50/1 Tipping The Scales.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: PARISH BUSINESS is a bit of a standout here on the strength of his recent fifth at Kempton as this is a desperately weak maiden. The ground was good then, so he'll need to handle these different conditions. Should he not then it would be anyones, with Geton Xmoor perhaps next best.[Alistair Whitehouse-Jones]

Another big price gapper, albeit in a maiden hurdle.
2nd 8/11
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TENNIS SHORT PRICES
10am - Simone Bolelli v David Ferrer ( 1.03) About 1.3 for the 3-0 set betting. Remember Ferrer will want to win, so 3-0 or 3-1 will suit him WIN 3 SETS

10am - Axel Michon v Kevin Anderson ( 1.1) - 206th v 20th - we'd hope for a 3-0 surely here? WIN 3 SETS

1130am - Guillermo Garcia Lopez ( 1.18)v Adrian Mannarino - 41st b 89th and 1-0 - WIN 4 SETS

1130am - Rafael Nadal ( 1.04) v Dominic Thiem - 1.46 3-0 Rafa is a little high but achievable -WIN 3 SETS

1130am - Lucie Safarova ( 1.36)v Casey Dellacqua - WIN 3 SETS

1pm - Philipp Kohlschreiber ( 1.35)v Denis Istomin - 24th v 49th and 1-3 to Istomin in head to heads suggests this 1.35 is vulnerable - WIN 3 SETS

115pm - Petra Kvitova ( 1.2) v Marina Erakovic - 6th v 61st and 3-0 head to heads - WIN 2 SETS

115pm - Marinko Matosevic v Andy Murray ( 1.06) - Ruby does tend to drop a set so 3-0 might be a worry - 1.53 - WIN 3 SETS

245pm - Gael Monfils ( 1.25)v Jan Lennard Struff - 28th v 62nd - WIN 3 SETS

330pm - Thomaz Bellucci v Fabio Fognini ( 1.22) - 108th v 15th 0-2 head to heads - WIN 3 SETS

FOOTBALL SHORTIES
2pm - Hobro v Marienlyst - 1.19 home - the away side have conceded 2+ goals in all away matches this season but the home side have only won 1 of their last 5 home matches and only 3 of their last 11 matches. - WIN 3-0

SHORTLIST

A really poor day today selections wise. I normally rely on their being more than 1 appealing football punt. The horses are largely in maidens or over obstacles.
10am - Axel Michon v Kevin Anderson ( 1.1) - 206th v 20th - we'd hope for a 3-0 surely here? - I do like the gap in the rankings here - 1.79 though for 3-0 sets is a little high

115pm - Petra Kvitova ( 1.2) v Marina Erakovic - 6th v 61st and 3-0 head to heads

330pm - Thomaz Bellucci v Fabio Fognini ( 1.22) - 108th v 15th 0-2 head to heads - a nice rankings gap and 1.22 odds is perfect

Sunday, 25 May 2014

drt bulletin 26th May 2014

HJK won 1-0. I was pleased with the research for the Malmo match which signalled both teams scoring and the potential for AIK to score 2 goals away from home ( again!). It ended 2-2.
Belgium did what 1.08 shots do, and that is to score shed loads. A welcome run around for the dark horses for Brazil.

1130am - Japan v Cyprus - 1.17 home

the Japs have conceded in 13 of their last 14 matches.
recent friendlies have seen them playing the likes of Netherlands( 2-2), Belgium 2-3, and New Zealand ( 4-2). Goal laden affairs and you suspect Cyprus might be on the end of 2+ goals.
Japan have won their last 3 homefriendlies against Guatemala, Ghana and New Zealand, scoring 3-3-2. In fact in recent home friendlies, they have scored 3-2-0-2-3-3-4
Cyprus are on a 2 match 0-0 run
Cyprus have failed to score in 8 of their last 9 matches in all competitions.
only 2 wins in 15 friendlies were against Moldova and Andorra.

Profitable in-play opportunities

3/4 goals surely from the Japs today against an opponent who finds it difficult to score. This opens the door for a correct score to nil punt to enhance the returns. 3-0 starters?

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7pm - FK Dainava v Banga - 1.07 away

this is a Lithuanian top flight match
4-0 and 6-0 for Banga in the 2 2014 head to heads suggests the odds are correct here. Starting scoreline at 5-0 perhaps for an interest in what is unlikely to be a DRT match.
I would look for a concerted 0-0 here and then back over 4.5 goals at enhanced odds -that kind of play.
Also if it's 0-0 coming to the half hour mark, lay the 0-0 halftime score. 1.07 shots are really expected to at least get a first half goal.

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8pm - France v Norway - 1.45 home

this is another pipe-opener for the World Cup and we expect the Frogs to field their first team, just as the Belgians did yesterday.
The odds look a little tentative at 1.45, I'd have expected shorter.
the last friendly played was in 2010 between these 2 so is not relevant
5 wins and a loss to Ukraine in France's last 6 matches. 6 clean sheets in their last 7 matches
only 3 defeats in 23 home matches in all competitions, 2 of those defeats were v Spain and Germany, suggests today's match heavily favours the home side.
4 consecutive home wins to nil
France recently lost to Germany, Brazil and Uruguay in friendlies, all 3 solid teams. Recent wins v Australia and Netherlands.
only 1 win in 8 for Norway was against Moldova.
only 1 win in their last 7 away matches .
only 2 draws for Norway in friendlies since 2008.Norway have recently conceded 4 against Sweden, 2 against Denmark, 3 against Poland, and 2 against the Czechs

Profitable in-play opportunities

this is the first of 3 friendlies for France, so we may see team changes in each of those matches. This Im afraid is what we face with friendlies. They are an experimental mechanism for management so results must be taken with a pinch of salt.
Looking at past history, though and France seem to have s strong defensive bent, so look to them totry and keep a clean sheet today.
Norway are on a poor run, conceding 2-4 goals regularly, so factor that in today for a French side who have only lost to the big guns.
Norway tend to avoid draws, only 2 in friendlies since 2008.

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Saturday, 24 May 2014

creating value 24th may

Here is an excerpt of April's article on "creating value from short prices"
Follow this step-by-step strategy to optimise your chances of collecting an evens return time after time.
1) Ensure you know your fractional and decimal odds. This will allow you to use both the bookmakers and www.betfair.com as your resources with which to mine for 1/5, 1 /4 and 1/3 shots. For the record, a 1/5 shot is 1.20 in decimal odds. A 1 /4 shot is 1.25 in decimal odds. A 1/3 shot is 1.33 in decimal odds.
2) Don’t restrict yourself to backing selections in order to make your quota of 1/5 , 1/4 and 1/3 shots. With our ability to lay ( as the patriarch reminds us this month), we can get the same return as a 1/5 , 1/4 and 1/3 shot by laying selections at certain prices. Keep a note of the lay odds below which correspond to the same as backing the selection.
1/5 shot is 1.20 - lay a selection at 6.00 . Backing a 1.20 shot with £100 will return £20. Laying a selection at odds of 6.00 for £100 liability ( not stake) will return around £20.
1 /4 shot is 1.25 – lay a selection at 5.00. Backing a 1.25 shot with £100 will return £25. Laying a selection at odds of 5.00 for £100 liability ( not stake) will return around £25.
1/3 shot is 1.33 – lay a selection at 4.00. Backing a 1.33 shot with £100 will return £33. Laying a selection at odds of 4.00 for £100 liability ( not stake) will return around £33.

What I am going to attempt now is to try and sniff out a 1.2, 1.25 or 1.3 shot which can be backed, or a 6.00, 5.00 or 4.00 shot which can be layed.
I will use the techniques I suggested within the article. I hope you find it informative

The 22nd May saw 2 shortlisted tennis bets fail, but the 2 footballers win and the 810 Sandown horse win at odds of 1/4 A treble was available. One of the tennis bets I warned about as 2 unknown players. As we evolve this, then, perhaps it's important to stick with tennis players who are immediately recognisable?

RACING POST SHORTLISTERS/PRICE GAPPERS. We look to find horses with an obvious chance of winning, but we want to back them in the TO PLACE ONLY market.

415 Beverley
Betting forecast: 4/5 Basem, 5/2 Pool House, 7/2 Crowdmania, 33/1 Surety.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Crowdmania will be dangerous if dictating at his leisure, while Pool House is worth a crack at this trip, but the interesting one is BASEM. Bred to be smart, he overcame inexperience to make a winning debut at Newmarket last month and was keeping on very strongly once the penny dropped. There's more to come from him in time and he can take this on route to better things.[Paul Smith]

Pure probability race this one. Will Basem place?
------------------------------------------------------
545 Catterick
Betting forecast: 2/5 Sitting Pritty, 17/2 Goadby, 20/1 Blue Jacket, 25/1 Penny Pursuits, 50/1 Lady Dancer.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: SITTING PRETTY stands out on her reappearance second in a much better maiden than this at Chester this month and though the odds are likely to be prohibitive, really should win. Bondi Beach Babe can chase her home. [Mel Cullinan]
Maiden fillies race and only 2 places. Back only on the fav?
------------------------------------------------------
550 Cartnel
Betting forecast: 1/8 Volcanic, 14/1 Laird Of Monksford, 16/1 Drummers Drumming, 16/1 Raifteiri, 20/1 Macgillycuddy.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: VOLCANIC fluffed a good opportunity two starts ago but got back on track with a win at Bangor last time and should be far too good for today's modest opposition. Raifteiri is a fairly strong stayer and has run well here before, so may plug on to claim second.[Chris Wilson]
1/8 shot in a novice hurdle! Yikes. Will his odds reach 1.2 before race time?
------------------------------------------------------
755 Cartmel
Betting forecast: 4/7 Runswick Royal, 5/1 Sultana Belle, 5/1 Swaledale Lad, 12/1 Captain Brown, 16/1 Elsafeer.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Useful hurdler RUNSWICK ROYAL lost out only narrowly after travelling strongly on his chase debut at Kelso this month and should be a tough nut to crack here. It's hard to gauge what Sultana Belle achieved when easily beating a below-par favourite on her first start over fences and a bigger threat may come from Swaledale Lad.[Chris Wilson]
Price gapper in a novices chase. Of course they have to complete!
---------------------------------------------------------
215 Curragh
Betting forecast: 2/7 The Great War, 100/30 Cappella Sansevero, 20/1 Sors, 22/1 Coto, 25/1 Primo Uomo, 33/1 Blackbriar.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: A fascinating showdown in prospect between THE GREAT WAR and Cappella Sansevero, both two from two and looking smart in the process. Aidan O'Brien has won this contest for three of the last four years and, arguably, none of those winners were as exciting as his War Front colt who has barely come off the bridle so far and should complete the hat-trick here, thus booking his boarding pass to Royal Ascot. The remaining quartet look to battle for third. [David Jennings]
A showdown? 2 horse race> Cappella therefore the value in the place only market?
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
320 Curragh
Betting forecast: 4/6 Kingman, 6/1 Mustajeeb, 6/1 War Command, 7/1 Shifting Power, 20/1 Big Time, 20/1 Great White Eagle, 20/1 Obliterator, 25/1 Michaelmas, 28/1 Johann Strauss, 33/1 Prince Of All, 40/1 Fountain Of Youth, 66/1 Mandatario, 200/1 Davids Park, 200/1 Dolce N Karama.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: KINGMAN (nap) had his reputation dented at Newmarket but his surprise conqueror there, Night Of Thunder, sidesteps the Irish equivalent and the impressive Greenham winner is very hard to oppose in his absence. He looked every inch a top-notch miler at Newbury and today's course and conditions should see him at his best. It could be a 1-2 for the visitors as the straightforward Shifting Power is likely to be prominent from the outset and can repel all challengers bar the selection. War Command, who boasts a 3l win over Mustajeeb in the Futurity Stakes here last August, is expected to lead home the Irish challenge. [David Jennings]

Kingsman to place here?
------------------------------------------------------
535 Ffos las
Betting forecast: 6/4 Air Of Glory, 2/1 Verano, 11/4 Azabitmour, 8/1 Ghost Runner, 33/1 Scripturist, 66/1 Kims Quest, 66/1 Mountain Of Angels.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Azabitmour really needs taking on under his penalty and the obvious alternative is AIR OF GLORY, a maiden winner for Godolphin with more than enough presence about him to make a career out of jumping. Verano is the other to bear in mind, with this probably his easiest assignment to date.[Alistair Whitehouse-Jones]

4 horse race here for 2 places?
----------------------------------------------------

TENNIS SHORT PRICES
11am - Kohlschreiber v Karlovic - 1.29 home
1130am - Bua/Seguel v Barty/Dellacqua - 1.21 away
130pm - Delbonis v Gulbis - 1.37 away

FOOTBALL SHORTIES
1230pm - Shakhter Karagandy v FC Taraz - 1.31 home
2pm - Marienlyst v AC Horsens - 1.28 away
3pm - England U19 v Montenegro U19 - 1.35 home

SHORTLIST
22nd May 2014 - Kerber lost, Kohlshreiber won, Reister lost, England Youth won, Ukraine won, Mutakayyef won.
2pm - Marienlyst v AC Horsens - 1.28 away - Danish 2nd tier I believe and Marienlyst are hopelessly adrift. No research done though.
2pm Curragh - is this between Great War and Capella Sansevero? Can we back either of these 2 to place, ideally the one nearer to 1.3?
320 Curragh - Kingsman to place only. We have seen before that high class races create inherent competitiveness but this looks a solid favourite.

Any match featuring Ivo Karlovic could see him hard to break, so I'd be a bit retiscent putting up Kohlschreiber at 1.3. We will see his odds rise in play I'd suspect as at least one set should end as a tie break.Maybe you'd want to back Kohlscheirber at better odds in-play? Or Lay 2-0 sets Karlovic if the lay odds equate to a 1.2, 1.25 or 1.33 payout?

drt bulletin 24th may 2014

Well, trusting 1.42 shots who don't need to win! I did warn you!A 1-2 win for Ruch .
The first goal in the Leyton Orient match came in the 34th minute, so any pre match 0-0 backers could have layed off before that time. If you did well done. This was a stark contrast to the Championship play-off. Did you lay Leyton Orient 2-0 up? Rotherham were the momentum team as far as most recent form was concerned.
Plzen scored first which ended my interest in this as a DRT match. Brno did equalise and any late layers of the draw would have lost out.
Siena nearly continued their poor scoring record at home to lower teams. 1-0 until the 90th+ minute. The match went as per the research really with Padova conceding as expected.

230pm - Legia Warsaw v Ruch Chorzow - 1.42 home
Standout stats

I'm not sure how many matches remain in this polish play-off for the Champions League and Europa League places. This is 1st v 3rd in the table of 8 teams. 7 points clear at the top, Legia are assured of Champions League football surely even if there are 2 matches remaining in this play off.
Ruch Chorzow are 3rd and will ideally need to win as 4th spot are on 28 points, Ruch on 30 points.

Profitable in-play opportunities

teams who don't need to win rarely do. That's a concern with having faith in 1.42 shots Legia should they concede first. Ruch need a win ideally. They do seem a level or 2 behind Legia Warsaw.

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3pm - Leyton Orient v Rotherham - 2.48 away
Standout stats

the league one play-off, and will it go the way of the Championship play-off yesterday? 0-0 for a long period with the potential single goal victory?
these matches are hard to decipher statistically but I'll post some of the stats from the season gone to see if we can glimpse a certain characteristic in these teams.
Tight head to heads saw a 1-0 Leyton Orient win and a 2-1 Rotherham win with 2 goals coming in the 76th and 90th minutes. This does suggest a tight encounter today doesn't it?
these 2 were 3rd and 4th on identical points this season.
It is Rotherham who are in the best most recent form. Only 2 defeats in their last 22 matches and 4 defeats in their last 32 matches. Contrast that with only 3 wins in 10 for Leyton Orient.
All of Rotherham's defeats, bar one , this season gone were against top 10 sides.
All bar 3 of Leyton Orient's defeats were at home against top 14.

Profitable in-play opportunities

you have to say that recent momentum is with a Rotherham side with 4 defeats only in their last 32 matches.
Head to heads and equal points all season long suggests a tight match, and a natural back of 0-0.

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330pm - Orgryte v IFK Uddevalla - 1.29 home
Standout stats

Profitable in-play opportunities

4pm - NK Maribor v Domzale - 1.44 home
Standout stats

Profitable in-play opportunities

430pm - IFK Goteborg v Norrkoping - 1.51 home
Standout stats

Profitable in-play opportunities

5pm - Plzen v FC Brno - 1.35 home
Standout stats

Plzen won the 2013 league meetings 3-1. In 2014 there were 2 cup meetings, a 2-0 Plzen win and a 0-0.
this is 2nd v 10th and Plzen are some 9 points shy of 1st place.

Plzen

only 2 defeats all season
undefeated in 9 matches
have failed to score in only 2 of their last 16 matches
have scored 2+ in 7 of their last 8 matches
have kept 5 clean sheets in their last 7 matches
undefeated at home.All home wins have seen them score between 2-6 goals.

Brno

only 1 win away from home was a 0-1.
conceded 4 and 5 away to 1st and 3rd

Profitable in-play opportunities

this all looks a little straightforward which is good news for Plzen and good news for DRT'ers as we want to shortlist apparent sure things. Chance another 3-1 scorelines perhaps? It incorporates a lot of scorelines, and includes a possible Brno goal.

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730pm - Avellino v Reggina - 1.4 home
Standout stats

Profitable in-play opportunities

730pm - Brescia v Juve Stabia - 1.47 home
Standout stats

14th v 22nd and it can be described as a dead rubber with Juve down and Brescia wallowing in mid-table mediocrity,
Only 2 wins all season for Juve Stabia.
Juve Stabia have conceded at least 2 goals in 7 of their last 8 matches
Brescia have lost 6 of their last 7 matches at home so are they really reliable?

Profitable in-play opportunities

a dead rubber and dead rubbers should not be entertained.

730pm - Siena v Padova - 1.61 home
Standout stats

this is Seria B
the most recent head to head was a 2-2
this is 7th v 20th 3rd bottom Padova look in deep trouble if they don't win

Siena

2 consecutive wins, but coming after a run of 3 defeats and a draw
only 3 home defeats were against 1st , 5th and 15th.
It's been tight at home to 16th and lower with 3 1-1's, 2 1-0's and a 2-1
6 0-0's at halftime at home
have scored 16 goals in both halves at home.
have scored first in 15 of 20 home matches

Padova

4 consecutive defeats ended with a home win latest
only 2 wins in their last 12 away matches
only 2 clean sheets in 24 matches.
only 3 wins away
have conceded 1-3-0-3-3-2 against top 6 away and are playing 7th today
have conceded in their last 11 matches
7 0-0's at halftime away

Profitable in-play opportunities

padova should concede at some stage so factor that in today. Padova could put up a defensive display in one last hurrah.
Siena have been poor really, despite being undefeated, against 16th and lower, only scoring more than 1 goal in one match.

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Thursday, 22 May 2014

CREATING VALUE FROM SHORT PRICES 22/5

FOOTBALL SHORTIES
12pm - Laos v Phillippines - 1.22 away
415pm - Brazil Youth v South Korea Youth - 1.29 home
630pm - England Youth v Qatar Youth - 1.25 home
630pm - Skive v FC Djursland - 1.1 home
7pm - Ukraine v Niger - 1.22 home

SHORTLIST
All of the tennis ones came in on the shortlist yesterday.
1pm - Angelique Kerber( 1.27) v Karolina Pliskova - 9th v 64th and 2-0H2H - favourite for the tournament and has won twice over today's opponent. - LOST
415pm - Philipp Kohlschreiber ( 1.17) v Mate Delic - 29th v 211th - big gap - WIN
12pm - Julian Reister ( 1.21) v Jonathan Eysseric - 90th v 237th - slightly riskier as I don't know these 2 players but a reasonable gap in the rankings and good to see Reister top 100 and Eysseric outside the top 200 LOST
630pm - England Youth v Qatar Youth - 1.25 home - the YOOF should do the business, that's if they don't all have asbos. - WIN
7pm - Ukraine v Niger - 1.22 home - friendlies are fraught with danger but so near to a World Cup, you suspect the Ukrainians will use this friendly well. WIN
810 Sandown
Betting forecast: 1/3 Mutakayyef, - I rarely venture into horse racing for these trebles. If this price gap is accurate , and beware it is a maiden, then the named horse should oblige. I would try though to get my treble done before relying on the horses.
1st 1.4

Wednesday, 21 May 2014

reating value from short prices 21st may 2014

FOOTBALL SHORTIES
530pm - Rakvere Tarvas v Levadia Tallinn II - 1.38 away
7pm - Viitorul Constanta v Ceahlaul - 1.35 home - last match of the season in Romania and the home side, despite being some 6 places lower than the away side, need a win. 1-0

SHORTLIST
A tough day today. The horse racing makes little appeal. Ditto the football. Can Viitorul Constanta be trusted to get the win they apparently need at 7pm? They have a draw and 2 wins in their last 3 home matches, all clean sheets so there is some hope there.
11am - Karlovic ( 1.21) v N Milojevic - 49th v 581st - this is a huge rankings gap.
1pm - Kerber( 1.14) v Friedsam - 9th v 112th - 2 sets to love?
230pm - Kohlschreiber( 1.35) v Gabashvili - 29th v 60th and 1-0 head to heads. - I think Kohlschreiber is the favourite to win the actual tournament in Dusseldorf.

reating value from short prices 21st may 2014

Monday, 19 May 2014

CREATING VALUE FROM SHORT PRICES 19TH MAY

Here is an excerpt of April's article on "creating value from short prices"
Follow this step-by-step strategy to optimise your chances of collecting an evens return time after time.
1) Ensure you know your fractional and decimal odds. This will allow you to use both the bookmakers and www.betfair.com as your resources with which to mine for 1/5, 1 /4 and 1/3 shots. For the record, a 1/5 shot is 1.20 in decimal odds. A 1 /4 shot is 1.25 in decimal odds. A 1/3 shot is 1.33 in decimal odds.
2) Don’t restrict yourself to backing selections in order to make your quota of 1/5 , 1/4 and 1/3 shots. With our ability to lay ( as the patriarch reminds us this month), we can get the same return as a 1/5 , 1/4 and 1/3 shot by laying selections at certain prices. Keep a note of the lay odds below which correspond to the same as backing the selection.
1/5 shot is 1.20 - lay a selection at 6.00 . Backing a 1.20 shot with £100 will return £20. Laying a selection at odds of 6.00 for £100 liability ( not stake) will return around £20.
1 /4 shot is 1.25 – lay a selection at 5.00. Backing a 1.25 shot with £100 will return £25. Laying a selection at odds of 5.00 for £100 liability ( not stake) will return around £25.
1/3 shot is 1.33 – lay a selection at 4.00. Backing a 1.33 shot with £100 will return £33. Laying a selection at odds of 4.00 for £100 liability ( not stake) will return around £33.

What I am going to attempt now is to try and sniff out a 1.2, 1.25 or 1.3 shot which can be backed, or a 6.00, 5.00 or 4.00 shot which can be layed.
I will use the techniques I suggested within the article. I hope you find it informative

I hope you got your treble up before the German Cup? All winners shortlisted a lot earlier. The German Cup was 0-0 fulltime so didn't win.

RACING POST SHORTLISTERS/PRICE GAPPERS. We look to find horses with an obvious chance of winning, but we want to back them in the TO PLACE ONLY market.
All horses won/placed yesterday
----------------------------------------------------------------------
The maiden hurdler was unplaced and Flying Machine placed at 1.19. again horses are proving less consistent than football and tennis
---------------------------------------------------
815 Leicester
Betting forecast: 7/4 Alys Love, 4/1 Mia San Triple, 5/1 Humour, 7/1 Al Senad, 7/1 Byron´s Gold, 17/2 Major Jack, 16/1 Majestic Song, 25/1 Ach Alannah.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: A fair smattering of form on offer with the best of it provided by ALYS LOVE, who was second in two 7f maidens last season and ran very respectably in a Group 3 at 66-1 on her seasonal return. Once-raced potential improver Humour could be next best. [Mel Cullinan]

A maiden favourite placed recently is interesting. Only 8 runners and 3 places ideal for place only betting
----------------------------------------------------
655 Roscommon
Betting forecast: 4/5 Toe The Line, 3/1 Go Gentle, 7/1 Well Hello, 10/1 Point The Toes, 16/1 Dancingwithangels, 20/1 Sixteen Again, 25/1 Ydal, 33/1 Gem Twist, 33/1 Jercova.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: TOE THE LINE was taking on much stronger opposition than this at Killarney and sets a good standard here with an official rating of 79 and an RPR of 88. Go Gentle looks best of the remainder on the evidence of a much-improved run on her seasonal debut at Killarney. [Alan Sweetman]
A 4 horse race says the betting forecast?
----------------------------------------------------
805 ewindsor
Betting forecast: 6/4 Cafe Society, 5/1 Ballinderry Boy, 6/1 Jakey, 8/1 Kuda Huraa, 8/1 Nicholascopernicus, 12/1 Modernism, 14/1 Commissar, 14/1 Golden Bowl, 25/1 Uramazin.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: There should be more to come this year from CAFE SOCIETY (nap), who was considered on the weak side by his trainer last season but still showed considerable promise. After an encouraging return at Newmarket, he should be poised to strike in this easier grade. The lightly raced Jakey also has more to offer (he had excuses at Epsom last time) and looks the main danger with most of the others having questions to answer.[Adrian Cook]
A big price gapper here today and an ideal race for place only betting
------------------------------------------------------

TENNIS SHORT PRICES
All won in 2 sets yesterday and only one failed to do so in straight sets
1130am - Zahlavova Strycova v Bouchard( 1.27) - disappointed last time she appeared in this shortlist .63rd v 19th and 0-1 head to hedas
1145am - Montanes ( 1.13) v Ebden - 61st v 75th and 1-0 head to heads
1pm - Garcia Vidagany ( 1.26) v Zander -204th v 316th and 1-0 head to heads

FOOTBALL SHORTIES
All of the footy bets came in. Nice for you treble makers to get a 100% day from the tennis and the football.
Nothing today bar
5pm - Nomme Kalju v Trans Narva - 1.12 home where we would hope that the home side lead at halftime in order to get ourselves a 1.20 bet.

SHORTLIST
I made another treble yesterday with ease.
Not a day which appeals at all. Gun to head, I would chose Bouchard in the tennis to get over her previous disappointment.
Nomme Kalju should lead at halftime for an enhanced odds 1.2 ish bet.
655 Roscommon Toe the line in a potential 4 horse race. A hope 1.2+ is the place only price.

As I say nowhere near as solid as yesterday in terms of the pool of selections we can choose from.

Sunday, 18 May 2014

CREATE VALUE FROM SHORT PRICES 18TH MAY 2014

Here is an excerpt of April's article on "creating value from short prices"
Follow this step-by-step strategy to optimise your chances of collecting an evens return time after time.
1) Ensure you know your fractional and decimal odds. This will allow you to use both the bookmakers and www.betfair.com as your resources with which to mine for 1/5, 1 /4 and 1/3 shots. For the record, a 1/5 shot is 1.20 in decimal odds. A 1 /4 shot is 1.25 in decimal odds. A 1/3 shot is 1.33 in decimal odds.
2) Don’t restrict yourself to backing selections in order to make your quota of 1/5 , 1/4 and 1/3 shots. With our ability to lay ( as the patriarch reminds us this month), we can get the same return as a 1/5 , 1/4 and 1/3 shot by laying selections at certain prices. Keep a note of the lay odds below which correspond to the same as backing the selection.
1/5 shot is 1.20 - lay a selection at 6.00 . Backing a 1.20 shot with £100 will return £20. Laying a selection at odds of 6.00 for £100 liability ( not stake) will return around £20.
1 /4 shot is 1.25 – lay a selection at 5.00. Backing a 1.25 shot with £100 will return £25. Laying a selection at odds of 5.00 for £100 liability ( not stake) will return around £25.
1/3 shot is 1.33 – lay a selection at 4.00. Backing a 1.33 shot with £100 will return £33. Laying a selection at odds of 4.00 for £100 liability ( not stake) will return around £33.

What I am going to attempt now is to try and sniff out a 1.2, 1.25 or 1.3 shot which can be backed, or a 6.00, 5.00 or 4.00 shot which can be layed.
I will use the techniques I suggested within the article. I hope you find it informative

I hope you got your treble up before the German Cup? All winners shortlisted a lot earlier. The German Cup was 0-0 fulltime so didn't win.

RACING POST SHORTLISTERS/PRICE GAPPERS. We look to find horses with an obvious chance of winning, but we want to back them in the TO PLACE ONLY market.
All horses won/placed yesterday
----------------------------------------------------------------------
215 Limerick
Betting forecast: 5/4 Cloudy Rock, 11/2 Circe´s Island, 8/1 Fire Dawn, 8/1 Pros ´n´ Cons, 10/1 Triplets Joy, 10/1 Well Tuned, 12/1 Vole Au Vent, 16/1 Needed The Run, 20/1 Ballycorrigan, 20/1 Is She Home, 20/1 Somethingboutnelly, 20/1 Xifiltosa, 25/1 Howlongmore, 25/1 The Flying Doc, 50/1 The New Citizen, 50/1 Tressel, 66/1 Fainne An Lae.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: CLOUDY ROCK arrived at Thurles in January with a big reputation and, although disappointing there, she made amends in a Tramore bumper last month. She is fancied to make a winning debut over hurdles at the expense of Fire Dawn, who took on some useful sorts in bumpers, and the consistent Circle's Island who looks rock solid each-way material. [David Jennings]

Big price gapper albeit in a maiden hurdle - 4TH 1.29
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240 Ripon
Betting forecast: 11/8 Flying Machine, 4/1 Secret Brief, 9/2 Jersey Bull, 12/1 Bobby´s Flyer, 12/1 Just Marion, 12/1 Mr Christopher, 16/1 Lucilla Aurelius, 16/1 Star Ascending, 25/1 Mr Shekells.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Secret Brief is a half-brother to the stable's high-class juvenile Steeler and needs careful consideration on his debut. He will need to be useful to lower the colours of FLYING MACHINE though and Richard Fahey's 2yo is taken to get off the mark at the second attempt. He only gave best to a good prospect on his Doncaster debut and the extra furlong should suit.[Paul Smith]

Price gapper albeit in a maiden. 3 places though and 2nd only a few days ago. Flying Machine to place? 2ND 1.19
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TENNIS SHORT PRICES
All won in 2 sets yesterday except Nadal and Serena who were nice odds for World Number 1's and both won eventually.
1230pm - Serena Williams ( 1.11) v Sara Errani - 1st v 11th 6-0 heda to hedas - WON 2 SETS
1245pm - Leonardo Mayer ( 1.26) v Yann Marti - 76th v 251st - WON 2 SETS
1pm - Amandine Hesse v Silvia Soler Espinosa ( 1.25) 221st v 115th 0-1 to Soler - WON 2 SETS
130pm - Lisa Maria Moser v Anna Lena Friedsam ( 1.11) -312th v 108th - WON 3 SETS
230pm - Jan Lennard Struff ( 1.27) v Marton Fucsovics - 74th v 238th - WON 2 SETS

FOOTBALL SHORTIES
All the conventional footy bets came in. I went over 1.5 goals in the German Cup and that failed so it's strictly match odds from now on
130pm - Standard v Genk - 1.36 home- Standard must win to ensure Champions league football. WON
2pm - Juventus v Cagliari - 1.26 home - fraught with danger as ultimately a dead rubber but the last match at home for victorious Juventus - WON
3pm - FC Basel v Lausanne - 1.26 home - WON
3pm - Metalist v Vorskla - 1.3 home - WON
330pm - Red Bull Salzburg v St Polten - 1.14 home - WON
515pm - Benfica v Rio Ave - 1.36 home - Taca de Portugal and Benfica are miles clear in head to heads - WON
745pm - AC Milan v Sassuolo - 1.29 home. Dead rubber but last Milan home match this season - WON

SHORTLIST
I made my treble yesterday before the german Cup match thankfully. How about you? All correct bar that over 1.5 goals punt

130pm - Standard v Genk - 1.36 home - must wins do win, right? WOn
515pm - Benfica v Rio Ave - 1.36 home - another slight concern here as this is a cup match but Benfica are clearly dominant in head to heads - WON
230pm - Jan Lennard Struff ( 1.27) v Marton Fucsovics - 74th v 238th - big rankings gap - WON
1245pm - Leonardo Mayer ( 1.26) v Yann Marti - 76th v 251st - another big rankings gap. These lower ranked players can be ultra inconsistent but they did ok for me yesterday. Trust the rankings?