130pm - Shakhter Karagandy v Hajduk Split  - 1.98 home
Standout stats

• this is the first leg of a 2 legged Europa League ( EL) match

Shakhter Karagandy

• 21 matches into their season so they are match fit.
• have kept 4 clean sheets in their last 5 matches
• 9 consecutive wins in all competitions is part of a run of 14 without defeat.
• In the EL, they have kept 3 consecutive clean sheets
• 3 wins in 4 in the EL.
• Prior to 2014 Shakhter have struggled in the EL, failing to win in 7 matches.
• only 1 loss in 7 home EL matches includes 2 consecutive wins to nil.

Hajduk Split

• only 4 wins in 16 EL matches
• Wins have come against the likes of Skonto, Internazionale, Turnovo and Dundalk

Profitable in-play opportunities

• this is why I don't like the Europa League. I cannot get any angles into this match so will leave it alone for trading purposes. Stats wise? Well Shakhter Karagandy are unbeaten at home in 14 matches, so if you were to play, side with the home side.

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4pm - Neftchi Baku v Chikhura Sachkhere  - 1.6 home
Standout stats

• this is a Europa League ( EL) match between 2 teams I have never heard of before. I have only included it in this bulletin because the home team's odds are very short

Neftchi Baku

• An Azerbaijan team.
• have scored and conceded in their last 9 matches at home
• only 1 win in their last 8 EL matches.
• have not won in 5 home matches in the EL

Chikhura Sachkhere

• A Georgian side
• unbeaten in 4 2014 EL matches against Turnovo and Bursaspor ( 2 0-0's and went through on penalties)

Profitable in-play opportunities

• an Azerbaijani side against a Georgian side in another imponderable EL match which is best left alone. Neftchi have a terrible EL record. 

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5pm - Dinamo Moscow v Hapoel Kiryat Shmona  - 1.26 home
Standout stats

• this is the first leg of the Europa League ( EL) between a Russian Premier League side and an Israeli side.

Dinamo Moscow

• have scored and conceded in 5 of their last 6 matches
• only 1 loss in 12 matches at home
• only 1 win in 9 EL matches, includes 4 draws.
• Recently in the EL, Dundee United won 5-0 and Stuttgart drew 1-1

Hapoel

• no win in 8 EL matches.2 draws and 2 losses in their last 4 away matches in the EL

Profitable in-play opportunities

• the market expects the Russians to win with ease.
• Expectation is for Dinamo Moscow to score between 2-4 goals today. 
• Dinamo Moscow are in good form at home. This looks like a good DRT match. It would be a shock if the Israeli side were to lead in this match.

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5pm - Elfsborg v Hafnarfjordur  - 1.6 home
Standout stats

Profitable in-play opportunities




5pm - Omonia v Metalurg Skopje  - 1.43 home
Standout stats

Profitable in-play opportunities




6pm - Brommapojkarna v Torino  - 1.4 away
Standout stats

Profitable in-play opportunities




6pm - PSV v St Polten  - 1.18 home
Standout stats

• this is the first leg of a Europa League ( EL) match 

PSV

• are dutch powerhouses and the market expects them to score 3/4 goals today and possible win to nil
• are unbeaten in 7 matches, winning 6 of them
• have not had a draw in 12 matches.
• have been playing in the EL each year from 2009 to 2014
• PSV lost their last 2 EL matches against Ludogorets and Chornomorets
• PSV beat Napoli and Dinamo Zagreb in EL matches last year.

St Polten

• St Polten are an austrian league side.
• this is St Polten's debut year in the EL, where they lost away to Botev Plovdiv and beat them in the home leg.

Profitable in-play opportunities

• PSV are expected to score 3/4 goals minimum today, if the 1.18 odds are accurate. St Polten are debutants in the EL and I expect the home side to dominate at home. This makes this match a good possible DRT match. I will favour PSV . 
• There is a possibility for a goal before halftime if PSV are on song today so look to lay the 0-0 halftime score in if the match is 0-0 after 15 minutes of the first half.

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6pm - Portugal U19 v Germany U19  - 1.85 away
Standout stats

• this us a Euro U19 Championship match taking place in neutral Hungary

Portugal U19

• 9 wins and a 0-0 in their last match.
• only 1 loss in 20 matches sees Portugal in solid form

Germany u19

• unbeaten in 10 matches, with 8 wins. 2 consecutive clean sheets against Ukraine and austria.

Profitable in-play opportunities

• there is no home advantage here. We have a well-matched game between 2 very in form Under 19 teams. 
• Here's how I would trade this match. I would lay any team who goes 2-0 up in this match.
• I cannot see Germany u19 as strong market leaders here. 

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630pm - Young Boys v Ermis  - 1.38 home
Standout stats

Profitable in-play opportunities




7pm - Vikingur Gota v Rijeka  - 1.24 away
Standout stats

Profitable in-play opportunities



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7pm - Zulte-Waregem v Shakhter Soligorsk  - 1.5 home
Standout stats

• this is the first leg of a Europa League match ( EL)

Zulte

• Belgian side Zulte- Waregem have played in the EL in 2006, 2007, 2013 and 2014
• they have won 4 of their last 5 matches in the EL
• only 1 win in 7 home EL matches

Shakhter

• are a team from Belarus
• 6 consecutive wins and 8 clean sheets in their last 10 matches
• beat Derry city home and away in their 2014 EL matches

Profitable in-play opportunities

• I do get exasperated on days like this as the Europa League is not my favourite tournament, nor a tournament I tend to trade. Here is another match which is hard to decipher. Zulte-Waregam are one of the better  Belgian sides, but it is very hard to compare a team from, say Belgium, and a team from Belarus.
• Quite simply, you accept the odds or you don't.
• If you go with the betting market, then if Shakhter score first, lay them.

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730pm - Diosgyori v FK Krasnodar  - 1.47 away
Standout stats

Profitable in-play opportunities




730pm - Mainz v Asteras Tripolis  - 1.31 home
Standout stats

• 
  

Profitable in-play opportunities



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730pm - Sociedad v Aberdeen  - 1.27 home
Standout stats

• the market expects Spanish Primera Division Sociedad to beat SPL Aberdeen and I would tend to agree. There is no competition in the Scottish Premier League.

Sociedad

• have scored and conceded in 7 of their last 9 matches
• this is Real Sociedad's debut in the Europa League.

Aberdeen

• Aberdeen have a history in the EL, starting in 2000, 2002, 2007, 2008, 2009 and 2014
• In 2014 in the EL, Aberdeen have beaten Daugava Riga home and away, drew 0-0 with Groningen and beat them away

Profitable in-play opportunities

• putting your faith in EL debutants is risky, but the simple fact is that the Spanish Primera Division is far more competitive and of much better quality than the Scottish Premier League.
• Favour the home side today therefore . Aberdeen have scored in 3 of their 4 2014 EL matches so I will lay Aberdeen if Aberdeen score first.

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745pm - Brighton v Southampton  - 2.28 away
Standout stats

Profitable in-play opportunities




805pm - SV Grodig v Zimbru Chisinau  - 1.39 home
Standout stats

Profitable in-play opportunities

1st August creating value

Here is an excerpt of April's article on "creating value from short prices"
Follow this step-by-step strategy to optimise your chances of collecting an evens return time after time.
1) Ensure you know your fractional and decimal odds.  This will allow you to use both the bookmakers and www.betfair.com as your resources with which to mine for 1/5, 1 /4 and 1/3 shots. For the record, a 1/5 shot is 1.20 in decimal odds. A 1 /4 shot is 1.25 in decimal odds. A 1/3 shot is 1.33 in decimal odds.
2) Don’t restrict yourself to backing selections in order to make your quota of 1/5 , 1/4 and 1/3 shots. With our ability to lay ( as the patriarch reminds us this month), we can get the same return as a 1/5 , 1/4 and 1/3 shot by laying selections at certain prices. Keep a note of the lay odds below which correspond to the same as backing the selection.
1/5 shot is 1.20  - lay a selection at 6.00  . Backing a 1.20 shot with £100 will return £20. Laying a selection at odds of 6.00 for £100 liability ( not stake) will return around £20.
1 /4 shot is 1.25 – lay a selection at 5.00. Backing a 1.25 shot with £100 will return £25. Laying a selection at odds of 5.00 for £100 liability ( not stake) will return around £25.
1/3 shot is 1.33 – lay a selection at 4.00. Backing a 1.33 shot with £100 will return £33. Laying a selection at odds of 4.00 for £100 liability ( not stake) will return around £33.

What I am going to attempt now is to try and sniff out a 1.2, 1.25 or 1.3 shot which can be backed, or a 6.00, 5.00 or 4.00 shot which can be layed.
 I will use the techniques I suggested within the article. I hope you find it informative


RACING POST SHORTLISTERS/PRICE GAPPERS. We look to find horses with an obvious chance of winning, but we want to back them in the TO PLACE ONLY  market.

Yesterday
None
Today

530 Bath
Betting forecast: 8/11 Fray, 4/1 Flora Medici, 4/1 Sonnetation, 14/1 Song Of Norway, 14/1 Stosur.
Ted Durcan in the saddle. 6 lb penalty. Will he place?

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700 Nmkt
Betting forecast: 6/4 Zephuros, 15/8 Prince Gagarin, 2/1 Lexington Times.

3 horses and 2 places. Back the horse 1.2 or as near as to place.

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405 Thirsk
Betting forecast: 8/15 Kommander Kirkup, 4/1 Resist

This favourite consistently places

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TENNIS SHORT PRICES
Yesterday's Results
None

TENNIS SHORT PRICES
Today's possible selections - Please note that these times seem to be indicative only. It is extremely frustrating when I'm doing my trebles, having to wait until some hours after the allotted time for the match to start.

12pm - David Goffin v Maximo Gonzalez  - 1.35 David - 78th v 104th

1215pm - Adrian Mannarino v Brydan Klein  - 1.27 Adr - 101st v 429th

730pm - Svetlana Kuznetsova v Vania King  - 1.33 home - 26th v 76th  2-0 H2H

9pm - Steve Johnson v Milos Raonic  - 1.19 Milos - 68th v 7th


FOOTBALL SHORTIES


Yesterday
None

today

8pm - Shamrock Rovers (Res) v Longford  - 1.26 away

5pm - FC Infonet v Lokomotiv Johvi  - 1.1 home - get the 1.2 minimum odds by backing the home side to win at halftime?

5pm - Sillamae Kalev v Tammeka Tartu  - 1.1 home - as above

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SHORTLIST

Yesterday
none

Today

9pm - Steve Johnson v Milos Raonic  - 1.19 Milos - 68th v 7th - seems to be consistently improving Milos.

-----------------------------

700 Nmkt
Betting forecast: 6/4 Zephuros, 15/8 Prince Gagarin, 2/1 Lexington Times.

3 horses and 2 places. Back the horse 1.2 or as near as to place.  Hope the favourite is 1.2 or thereabouts in the place only market in a great probability race. 66% chance of placing.

-----------------------------
5pm - FC Infonet v Lokomotiv Johvi  - 1.1 home  -something like a halftime bet on Infonet or halftime/fulltime may get us the 1.2 minimum odds or higher.

11th July creating valie

Here is an excerpt of April's article on "creating value from short prices"
Follow this step-by-step strategy to optimise your chances of collecting an evens return time after time.
1) Ensure you know your fractional and decimal odds.  This will allow you to use both the bookmakers and www.betfair.com as your resources with which to mine for 1/5, 1 /4 and 1/3 shots. For the record, a 1/5 shot is 1.20 in decimal odds. A 1 /4 shot is 1.25 in decimal odds. A 1/3 shot is 1.33 in decimal odds.
2) Don’t restrict yourself to backing selections in order to make your quota of 1/5 , 1/4 and 1/3 shots. With our ability to lay ( as the patriarch reminds us this month), we can get the same return as a 1/5 , 1/4 and 1/3 shot by laying selections at certain prices. Keep a note of the lay odds below which correspond to the same as backing the selection.
1/5 shot is 1.20  - lay a selection at 6.00  . Backing a 1.20 shot with £100 will return £20. Laying a selection at odds of 6.00 for £100 liability ( not stake) will return around £20.
1 /4 shot is 1.25 – lay a selection at 5.00. Backing a 1.25 shot with £100 will return £25. Laying a selection at odds of 5.00 for £100 liability ( not stake) will return around £25.
1/3 shot is 1.33 – lay a selection at 4.00. Backing a 1.33 shot with £100 will return £33. Laying a selection at odds of 4.00 for £100 liability ( not stake) will return around £33.

What I am going to attempt now is to try and sniff out a 1.2, 1.25 or 1.3 shot which can be backed, or a 6.00, 5.00 or 4.00 shot which can be layed.
 I will use the techniques I suggested within the article. I hope you find it informative


RACING POST SHORTLISTERS/PRICE GAPPERS. We look to find horses with an obvious chance of winning, but we want to back them in the TO PLACE ONLY  market.

Yesterday
El Salvador won and Musaddas won
Today

730 Killarney
Betting forecast: 8/11 El Salvador, 13/2 Il Fenomeno,

A huge price gap here for this Aidan O'Brien horse - 8 runners means 3 places

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840 Thirsk
Betting forecast: 1/3 Musaddas, 3/1 Iftikaar, 18/1 Glasgow Kiss, 20/1 Cayjo, 25/1 Blue Sonic, 25/1 Legal Advisor, 50/1 Wilful Minx, 100/1 Red Legacy.

this is a maiden. The favourite would have to be back only. 2nd fav perhaps place only?

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TENNIS SHORT PRICES
Yesterday's Results
10am - Dinah Pfizenmaier v Polona Hercog  - 1.32 Pol - 134th v 58th - LOST 2 SETS

1045am - Gregoire Burquier v David Goffin  - 1.19 Goff - 170th v 85th - WON 2 SETS

1115am - Flavio Cipolla v Sergei Bubka  - 1.31 Flav - 211th v 1472nd - WON 2 SETS

12pm - Christian Garin v Andreas Haider Maurer  - 1.32 Maur - 346th v 90th  - - WON 2 SETS

1215pm - Ti Chen v Ryan Agar  - 1.19 Ti - 284th v 663rd - CANCELLED

1pm - Alize Cornet v Anett Kontaveit  - 1.21 alize - 21st v 161st - LOST 2 SETS

2pm - Karin Knapp v Ipek Soylu  - 1.19 Karin - 67th v 351st - WON 2 SETS

3pm - Illya Marchenko v Darian King  - 1.25 Illya - 178th v 445th - LOST 2 SETS

330pm - Blaz Rola v Hans Podlipnik Castillo  - 1.29 Blaz - 82nd v 225th - WON 2 SETS

4pm - Antonio Massara v Filip Veger  - 1.28 Fil - 1235th v 543rd - WON 2 SETS

5pm - Cagla Buyukakcay v Karolina Pliskova  - 1.25 Karol - 153rd v 47th 0-3 H2H - WON 3 SETS

6pm - Kyle Edmund v Marc Giner  - 1.28 Kyle - 275th v 270th - WON 2 SETS

745pm - Denis Kudla v Mitchell Krueger  - 1.26 Denis - 122nd v 394th - WON 2 SETS

TENNIS SHORT PRICES
Today's possible selections - Please note that these times seem to be indicative only. It is extremely frustrating when I'm doing my trebles, having to wait until some hours after the allotted time for the match to start.






FOOTBALL SHORTIES

Yesterday
545pm - Slovan Bratislava v The New Saints  - 1.28 home - WON

6pm - BATE Borisov v Skenderbeu  - 1.31 home - 0-0

7pm - FC Santa Coloma v Maccabi Tel Aviv  - 1.25 away 0-1

745pm - Braintree v Norwich  - 1.33 away 1-6

745pm - Dinamo Zagreb v Zalgiris  - 1.23 home - 2-0

Today



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SHORTLIST

Yesterday

All selections won yesterday

545pm - Slovan Bratislava v The New Saints  - 1.28 home - I expect the Welsh side to be out of their depth in the Champions League

7pm - FC Santa Coloma v Maccabi Tel Aviv  - 1.25 away - the home side are Andorran and should logically be opposed.

745pm - Dinamo Zagreb v Zalgiris  - 1.23 home - rock solid at home and another Champions League apparent mis-match

1115am - Flavio Cipolla v Sergei Bubka  - 1.31 Flav - 211th v 1472nd - a huge gap in rankings but why the relatively high odds? Illiquid betting market?

5pm - Cagla Buyukakcay v Karolina Pliskova  - 1.25 Karol - 153rd v 47th 0-3 H2H - nice gap in rankings and confirmed with 3-0 head to heads for Pliskova

Today

5th July 2014 Creating value from short prices

Here is an excerpt of April's article on "creating value from short prices"
Follow this step-by-step strategy to optimise your chances of collecting an evens return time after time.
1) Ensure you know your fractional and decimal odds.  This will allow you to use both the bookmakers and www.betfair.com as your resources with which to mine for 1/5, 1 /4 and 1/3 shots. For the record, a 1/5 shot is 1.20 in decimal odds. A 1 /4 shot is 1.25 in decimal odds. A 1/3 shot is 1.33 in decimal odds.
2) Don’t restrict yourself to backing selections in order to make your quota of 1/5 , 1/4 and 1/3 shots. With our ability to lay ( as the patriarch reminds us this month), we can get the same return as a 1/5 , 1/4 and 1/3 shot by laying selections at certain prices. Keep a note of the lay odds below which correspond to the same as backing the selection.
1/5 shot is 1.20  - lay a selection at 6.00  . Backing a 1.20 shot with £100 will return £20. Laying a selection at odds of 6.00 for £100 liability ( not stake) will return around £20.
1 /4 shot is 1.25 – lay a selection at 5.00. Backing a 1.25 shot with £100 will return £25. Laying a selection at odds of 5.00 for £100 liability ( not stake) will return around £25.
1/3 shot is 1.33 – lay a selection at 4.00. Backing a 1.33 shot with £100 will return £33. Laying a selection at odds of 4.00 for £100 liability ( not stake) will return around £33.

What I am going to attempt now is to try and sniff out a 1.2, 1.25 or 1.3 shot which can be backed, or a 6.00, 5.00 or 4.00 shot which can be layed.
 I will use the techniques I suggested within the article. I hope you find it informative


RACING POST SHORTLISTERS/PRICE GAPPERS. We look to find horses with an obvious chance of winning, but we want to back them in the TO PLACE ONLY  market.

Yesterday
1.08 for the place for Mustadeem, 1.41 for the win odds.

Today

405 Haydock
Betting forecast: 4/7 Muqaawel, 7/2 Divine Law, 5/1 Jersey Bull, 10/1 Dragline.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: MUQAAWEL won his recent debut authoritatively and in promising style, which gives him easily the most appeal in this small field although the ground conditions could be very different. Divine Law has been improving over shorter trips and looks the most plausible danger.[Richard Austen]

4 horses and 2 places  - with such a small field, can be back Muqaawel to win?

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515 Haydock
Betting forecast: 11/8 Roseburg, 5/1 Al Busayyir, 5/1 Tanseeb, 8/1 Libran, 8/1 Master The World, 8/1 Pupil, 14/1 Fire Fighting.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: ROSEBURG (nap) stands out in terms of potential and he may well be on a good mark anyway judged on his latest win which came on soft ground at Doncaster. Master The World makes a huge step down in class, but on current evidence Al Busayyir has done more.[Richard Austen]

Roseburg looks appealing judging by this price gap - likely to be 2 places only - check the place only market. Did you know, though, that the last 5 handicap price gappers like this one , have lost all their races, 4 of them not placing!!

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325 Leicester
Betting forecast: 5/4 Asyad, 7/2 Carnevale, 15/2 Bureau, 9/1 Guishan, 10/1 Ghinia, 11/1 Division Belle, 12/1 Compton Bird, 14/1 Bright Cecily.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: ASYAD (nap) is very much the one to beat after a good second on her seasonal/handicap debut second at Newbury last time. She was clear of the others then so an 8lb rise is fair and this Irish Oaks entry is pitched into a lesser handicap now. Carnevale may be next best, ahead of possible improver Division Belle, whose pedigree suggests she may well be better for this longer trip. [Mel Cullinan]

8 runners and 3 places. Asyad to place here? Spotlight likes him. Ted Durcan is onboard.



TENNIS SHORT PRICES

Yesterday
Mathieu won at 1.29, Novak won at 1.26 although his odds were higher in play as predicted, Enrique beat 1.15 shot Gonzalez in 3 sets, and 1.38 Roger Federer beat Raonic. If you went strictly with the tennis yesterday at Wimbledon, you'd have been happy .

Today

There are a lot of tennis matches on today but as I write they have absolutely no liquidity at all.

2pm - Eugenie Bouchard v Petra Kvitova  - 1.81 Kvitova. How do we get a 1.2 ish odds bet here? I would look perhaps at laying Kvitova to win 2-0 sets? Hopefully the return will be equivalent to a 1.2+ odds return.

230pm - Alexander Zverev v Paul-Henri Mathieu  - 1.33 Mathieu - he won at similar odds yesterday


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FOOTBALL SHORTIES

Yesterday -Nothing of interest yesterday although I suppose Ze Germans and their efficiency and Brazil and Fifa's wish for the hosts to go through looked , in hindsight, like obvious bets!

Today

230pm - Molde v Sogndal   -1.27 home

3pm - East Fife v Fulham  - 1.17 away

9pm - Netherlands v Costa Rica  - 1.56 home

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SHORTLIST

Yesterday

Mathieu won at 1.29 and Mustadeem won at 1.41 , placed at 1.08 

Today

325 Leicester
Betting forecast: 5/4 Asyad, 7/2 Carnevale, 15/2 Bureau, 9/1 Guishan, 10/1 Ghinia, 11/1 Division Belle, 12/1 Compton Bird, 14/1 Bright Cecily.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: ASYAD (nap) is very much the one to beat after a good second on her seasonal/handicap debut second at Newbury last time. She was clear of the others then so an 8lb rise is fair and this Irish Oaks entry is pitched into a lesser handicap now. Carnevale may be next best, ahead of possible improver Division Belle, whose pedigree suggests she may well be better for this longer trip. [Mel Cullinan]

8 runners and 3 places. Asyad to place here? Spotlight likes him. Ted Durcan is onboard.
Does look appealing if we can get a 1.2 + odds about Asyad

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3pm - East Fife v Fulham  - 1.17 away - I need my head testing getting involved in friendlies. Make sure the market is liquid, maybe visit the Sportsbook? Check team news. We want to see the fulham 1st team here. Scottish football is sub standard when compared with a team who have played in the Premiership for such a long time.

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1st august 2014 DRT

Summary of yesterday's matches

What a contrast in Estonia, as FC Infonet scored 10 , at 1.1 odds, and Sillamae Kalev struggled to win 1-0. The latter were available to back at about 1.34 before they scored. Imagine backing a team at triple their original odds and still winning.

Were you persuaded by Shakhtar's 12 wins in 14 matches last year, to stay with them yesterday? Vorskla scored first and led until the 80th minute, when Shakhtar suddenly sprung into life and scored 2 goals to snatch the match. It would have made an excellent DRT for those staying with the Ukrainian powerhouses.
I'm not a big friendly fan , but do like Dortmund whose friendly record is solid. And so, against Chievo, at 0-0, those who kept faith in Dortmund grabbing a winner, would have been rewarded.with a 2nd half winner.

The Slovan match was very interesting. It went exactly as per the research. Both teams scored, and Slovan's 1.36 odds were far too short to back. Any layers of Slovan would have been rewarded in-play. They did eventually win the match 2-1.
I spoke previously about hating friendlies. Well, Bournemouth 3, Swansea 1 was unexpected and a sign that friendlies are open to team changes, experimentation and are dodgy betting mediums.
Anderlecht won 0-2 with 2 2nd half goals for anyone taken by laying the 0-0 at halftime, given they scored 7 goals in 2 head to head meetings with Oostende.

I was very happy with the Longford match, even throwing in a correct score of 0-3. The match was 0-0 at halftime so any 0-3 backers at the start of the 2nd half would have been rewarded with much better odds.

I will be giving you pointers like these when the live chats begin on the 9th August.



730pm - Oostende v Anderlecht  - 1.74 away
Standout stats

• the Belgian season is only 1 match in so limited research. This will be one of the leagues I focus on as the season progresses .
• Anderlecht have won the last 2 most recent head to heads 3-0 and 4-0
• Oostende lost 2-0 away to Lierse in their first match.
• Anderlecht won 3-1 at home to Mouscron in theirs
• Oostende are unbeaten in 8 matches in the league, stretching back obviously to last season.
• Anderlecht are on a 6 match winning streak in the Belgian league, again stretching back to last season. away from home, they won 3 of their last 4 matches but I think those were in the play-offs. Take these away and Anderlecht lost 5 of the previous 7 away matches

Profitable in-play opportunities

• it's all conjecture at the moment. Only 2 matches in, Head to heads point to an easy away win, but then when expecting a 3-0, 4-0 win, you'd expect the odds to be shorter. Anderlecht were poor away last season  - will that continue this season? 
• I'll wait until there are more matches before trading this league.

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8pm - Shamrock Rovers (Res) v Longford  - 1.26 away

Standout stats

• this is an Irish First Division match, not as readable as the Premier League in Ireland
• this is 7th v 1st in a league of only 8 teams ( so these guys meet each other regularly
• this season is 19 matches old
• In 2014, Shamrock won 2-1 and then Longford won 6-0 at home

Shamrock

• only 3 wins all season
• are on an 8 match losing streak and have not had a win in 10 matches
• have conceded in their last 9 home matches
• have failed to score in their last 9 matches
• did beat Longford Town at home 2-1 earlier in the season but have since really deteriorated
• only 33% over 2.5 goals at home, so tend to lose 2-0?

Longford Town

• A 7 match winning streak and unbeaten in 11 matches overall, 6 away from home
• have not conceded in their last 5 away matches
• have scored either 2 or 3 goals in their last 6 matches

Profitable in-play opportunities

• this looks like a win to nil on current form ( in head to heads both teams scored in the last home match.) You can therefore go for a correct score win to nil for Longford Town, beginning perhaps at 0-3 and including 0-5 incase they go to town.
• Look for Longford Town to score 3 goals or more today although do note that only 33% of Shamrock's home matches have seen 3 or more goals.
• with the expectation for goals, should we expect at least one before halftime? If you see a long period of the first half without a goal, lay the 0-0 halftime score.

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3rd July 2014 Creating value

Here is an excerpt of April's article on "creating value from short prices"
Follow this step-by-step strategy to optimise your chances of collecting an evens return time after time.
1) Ensure you know your fractional and decimal odds.  This will allow you to use both the bookmakers and www.betfair.com as your resources with which to mine for 1/5, 1 /4 and 1/3 shots. For the record, a 1/5 shot is 1.20 in decimal odds. A 1 /4 shot is 1.25 in decimal odds. A 1/3 shot is 1.33 in decimal odds.
2) Don’t restrict yourself to backing selections in order to make your quota of 1/5 , 1/4 and 1/3 shots. With our ability to lay ( as the patriarch reminds us this month), we can get the same return as a 1/5 , 1/4 and 1/3 shot by laying selections at certain prices. Keep a note of the lay odds below which correspond to the same as backing the selection.
1/5 shot is 1.20  - lay a selection at 6.00  . Backing a 1.20 shot with £100 will return £20. Laying a selection at odds of 6.00 for £100 liability ( not stake) will return around £20.
1 /4 shot is 1.25 – lay a selection at 5.00. Backing a 1.25 shot with £100 will return £25. Laying a selection at odds of 5.00 for £100 liability ( not stake) will return around £25.
1/3 shot is 1.33 – lay a selection at 4.00. Backing a 1.33 shot with £100 will return £33. Laying a selection at odds of 4.00 for £100 liability ( not stake) will return around £33.

What I am going to attempt now is to try and sniff out a 1.2, 1.25 or 1.3 shot which can be backed, or a 6.00, 5.00 or 4.00 shot which can be layed.
 I will use the techniques I suggested within the article. I hope you find it informative


RACING POST SHORTLISTERS/PRICE GAPPERS. We look to find horses with an obvious chance of winning, but we want to back them in the TO PLACE ONLY  market.

Yesterday
Solar view was unplaced, News at Six won at 9/4, Gabrial the Great won at 1/6
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745 Epsom
Betting forecast: 4/7 Toast Of The Town, 9/2 Cascading, 15/2 Grace And Favour, 11/1 Social Riser, 12/1 Shadows Ofthenight, 14/1 Elpida, 50/1 Chindeni.


SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: It is very hard to see beyond TOAST OF THE TOWN, who is the one to beat on earlier form but who seemed to come on significantly when fourth in a Listed race at Nottingham last time. She has been keeping on at the end of her races at 1m2f and should win this if anywhere near as effective at 1m4f. Cascading is preferred to Grace And Favour for second. [Mel Cullinan]

2 places available only here. " very hard to see beyond?"

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725 Leopardstown
Betting forecast: 11/10 Artistic Integrity, 9/2 Korbous, 11/2 Nedera, 7/1 Little Arrows, 8/1 Our Manekineko, 12/1 Our Max, 14/1 Queen Of Norway.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: ARTISTIC INTEGRITY (nap) was an emphatic winner of a 7f handicap at Gowran on Tuesday and should make the most of this opportunity for a quick follow-up. Korbous may prove the best forecast option. [Alan Sweetman]

2 places only again here and an apprentice ridden race.

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840 Newbury
Betting forecast: 5/6 Venezia, 7/2 Stella Bellissima, 7/1 Pleasant Valley, 8/1 Gwafa, 8/1 Three Peaks, 16/1 Guard Of Honour, 33/1 Pennine Panther, 66/1 Sir Woodgate, 100/1 Italian Symphony, 100/1 Steel A Tune.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Although Pleasant Valley and Gwafa are very lightly raced and have shown potential, VENEZIA looks far and away the most likely option among those who have run following his fourth in a 1m4f handicap at Royal Ascot, which was far from being his only form of note. Whether he does indeed get off the mark in this race may well depend on the newcomer Stella Bellissima who hails from a top yard and has an excellent pedigree.[Richard Austen]

Looks like a race involving few here. CAn we hope Venezia places at least?

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TENNIS SHORT PRICES

3 shocks yesterday, Caci beat 1.12 shot Busta, Kerber won and Kyrgios won.

Today
1pm - Lucie Safarova v Petra Kvitova  - 1.43 Petra - 23rd v 6th  - 0-5 to Petra

3pm - Andrey Golubev v Philipp Petzschner  - 1.36 And - 56th v 575th

7pm - Adrian Mannarino v Juan Ignacio Londero  - 1.3 Adriano - 81st v 198th


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FOOTBALL SHORTIES

Yesterday -Nothing of interest

Today
12pm - Chernomorets Odesa v FK Hirnyk Kryvyi Rih  - 1.27 home

7pm - RNK Split v Mika  - 1.31 home

730pm - SS Folgore-Falciano v Buducnost Podgorica  - 1.3 away

730pm - Vale of Leithen FC v Dumbarton  - 1.19 away
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SHORTLIST

Yesterday

11am - Philipp Petzschner v Thomaz Bellucci  - 1.27 Bell - 575th v 97th  - the big rankings gap didn't work out yesterday, but here we have another very big gap and a reasonable price about bellucci.

Another let down by these lower ranked tennis players. So I think it's lesson learnt here!

Today

745 Epsom
Betting forecast: 4/7 Toast Of The Town, 9/2 Cascading, 15/2 Grace And Favour, 11/1 Social Riser, 12/1 Shadows Ofthenight, 14/1 Elpida, 50/1 Chindeni.

Toast of the Town to place if 1.2 or higher.

The tennis isn't working with the lower ranked players. If I had any confidence still I'd put up Andrey Golubev

Football wise, it's extremely difficult with early Europa League matches.

I'm going to play the waiting game today. Wait for better qualifiers.

2ND JULY 2014 CREATING VALUE

Here is an excerpt of April's article on "creating value from short prices"
Follow this step-by-step strategy to optimise your chances of collecting an evens return time after time.
1) Ensure you know your fractional and decimal odds.  This will allow you to use both the bookmakers and www.betfair.com as your resources with which to mine for 1/5, 1 /4 and 1/3 shots. For the record, a 1/5 shot is 1.20 in decimal odds. A 1 /4 shot is 1.25 in decimal odds. A 1/3 shot is 1.33 in decimal odds.
2) Don’t restrict yourself to backing selections in order to make your quota of 1/5 , 1/4 and 1/3 shots. With our ability to lay ( as the patriarch reminds us this month), we can get the same return as a 1/5 , 1/4 and 1/3 shot by laying selections at certain prices. Keep a note of the lay odds below which correspond to the same as backing the selection.
1/5 shot is 1.20  - lay a selection at 6.00  . Backing a 1.20 shot with £100 will return £20. Laying a selection at odds of 6.00 for £100 liability ( not stake) will return around £20.
1 /4 shot is 1.25 – lay a selection at 5.00. Backing a 1.25 shot with £100 will return £25. Laying a selection at odds of 5.00 for £100 liability ( not stake) will return around £25.
1/3 shot is 1.33 – lay a selection at 4.00. Backing a 1.33 shot with £100 will return £33. Laying a selection at odds of 4.00 for £100 liability ( not stake) will return around £33.

What I am going to attempt now is to try and sniff out a 1.2, 1.25 or 1.3 shot which can be backed, or a 6.00, 5.00 or 4.00 shot which can be layed.
 I will use the techniques I suggested within the article. I hope you find it informative


RACING POST SHORTLISTERS/PRICE GAPPERS. We look to find horses with an obvious chance of winning, but we want to back them in the TO PLACE ONLY  market.

Yesterday
Jimmy's Girl a non runner, Tryster won 5/6, Highland reel won 8/15
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
810 Chepstow
Betting forecast: Evs Solar View, 6/1 Our Folly, 7/1 Annaluna, 9/1 Jezza, 10/1 Arty Campbell, 10/1 Ashdown Lad, 10/1 Desert Recluse, 16/1 Significant Move.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Despite missing all of 2013 SOLAR VIEW looked as good as ever when winning on his return over 2m at Yarmouth five days ago, his fifth win from his last six starts, and he's taken to go in again under a 6lb penalty. Arty Campbell is still relatively lightly enough raced to be capable of further imrpovement and is feared most, ahead of Our Folly.[John Acton]

massive price gapper, but in a handicap and a 6 lb penalty. Won last time again. Will he place at least, or bomb out like so many of these handicap good things?

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830 Fairyhouse
Betting forecast: 4/5 News At Six, 5/1 Grecian Tiger, 5/1 Snow Scene, 10/1 Queen Of Alba, 12/1 Smoker, 20/1 Melanippe, 20/1 Progenitor.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: NEWS AT SIX (nap) looked a different horse at the Curragh and likely will win this if repeating that form. There should be a reasonable gallop for him to come off, which is perhaps the only potential worry. Snow Scene looks best for forecast players. [Johnny Ward]

Price gapper here, albeit only 2 places Bolger/Manning combo though is good to see.

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210 Perth
Betting forecast: 2/7 Gabrial The Great, 3/1 Alphabetical Order, 25/1 The Village, 50/1 Roll Of Thunder.

Only 1 horse for this favourite to beat? Or is the best value in Alphabetical order to place only, hopefully at 1.2 or above odds.

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TENNIS SHORT PRICES

3 shocks yesterday, Caci beat 1.12 shot Busta, Kerber won and Kyrgios won.

Today
 9am - Alessandro Giannessi v Maximo Gonzalez  - 1.2 Max - 313th v 116th

1045am - Guillermo Duran v Andrea Arnaboldi  - 1.3 And - 560th v 171st

11am - Philipp Petzschner v Thomaz Bellucci  - 1.27 Bell - 575th v 97th

12pm - Simona Halep v Sabine Lisicki  - 1.39 Halep - 3rd v 19th 2-1 H2H - Halep has won in 3 sets in the last 2 meetings.

130pm - Novak Djokovic v Marin Cilic  - 1.1 Novak - 0-0 Head to Heads 2nd v 29th

130pm - Andy Murray v Grigor Dimitrov  - 1.3 Mur - 3-1 H2H - 5th v 13th  4 7-6 set matches in their last 3 encounters, and their meeting in Mexico ended with 2 7-6 sets and a win for Dimitrov. Murray;s 1.3 odds are far too short against a man of this calibre.

330pm - Milos Raonic v Nick Kyrgios  - 1.52 Milos - what chance a tie-breaker or 3? 2 massive servers. - 9th v 144th  - both about the same height, and both killer servers. This again suggests odds on status for raonic is premature, that is unless Kyrgios peaked yesterday. These 2 have already met on Clay at Roland Garros and Raonic won 6-3, 7-6, 6-3

330pm - Stan Wawrinka v Roger Federer  - 1.36 Rog - Swiss pair and a big leap in Roger's odds all of a sudden from sub 1.1 to over 1.3 - 3rd v 4th and 2-13 Head to Heads
Stan won the final in monaco 4-6 7-6 6-2 after a run of 11 consecutive Federer wins in head to heads. So, yet again, there is an argument for laying Roger at 1.36


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FOOTBALL SHORTIES

Yesterday -Ferencvaros drew 1-1 but a nice trade when Sliema took the lead and Ferencvaros equalised. Levadia Tallin won 0-1

Today
Nothing of interest today

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SHORTLIST

yesterday

The horse racing is all maiden led which is a real turn off. I am, though, taken by the profile of this race

610 bath
Betting forecast: 11/10 Jimmy´s Girl, 11/2 Powerfulstorm, 6/1 Multi Quest, 6/1 Scent Of Power, 12/1 Frank The Barber, 16/1 Indian Tim, 16/1 King´s Bond, 20/1 Spirit In Time.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Powerfulstorm has been a single-figure price on both runs so far and although she's yet to beat a rival, she could have more to come in headgear and this looks particularly weak. JIMMY'S GIRL has her limitations but she should give her running and that could be enough to see her get off the mark at the fourth attempt.[Paul Smith]

yes a maiden, but I do like the profile here, 2 consecutive 2nd places for the fav and 3 places - NON RUNNER

--------------------------------

Today



1245pm - Nikola Cacic v Pablo Carreno Busta  - 1.12 pab - 548th v 60th  - a massive rankings gap - perhaps a straight sets win will boost the odds? LOST

230pm - Nick Kyrgios v Rafael Nadal  - 1.06 Nad - 144th v 1st - you've seen how unreliable 3-0 set betting can be, but surely 144th in the world will not land a blow against a fully fit Rafa? There is another way to get the odds we are looking for. perhaps back Rafa to win the first set. LOST

730pm - La Fiorita v Levadia Tallinn  - 1.37 away - as with the Germany match, this is a risky one, it's the Champions league, but I am taken by a Levadia team who love winning, and keeping clean sheets. They come off the back of a 19-0 win in the Cup and are playing a team from the San Marino league. We might have a good chance here. Do note this is a 2 legged affair which adds further risk as a win is not required is it? - WIN

Naivete yesterday for me. Check the players! I knew nothing about Kyrgios nor did I realise that Rafa had lost the 1st set in all matches. I actually put this up as a lay at 1.06 in my DRT column! Not sure what happened with Busta. Lower ranked players are the Arthur Daley's of the tennis world, not to be trusted. 
Levadia Tallin won but with a 90th minute goal.!

Today

11am - Philipp Petzschner v Thomaz Bellucci  - 1.27 Bell - 575th v 97th  - the big rankings gap didn't work out yesterday, but here we have another very big gap and a reasonable price about bellucci.

And that's it today. I'd be more of a layer than a backer today of these tennis shorties.

1ST JULY CREATING VALUE

Here is an excerpt of April's article on "creating value from short prices"
Follow this step-by-step strategy to optimise your chances of collecting an evens return time after time.
1) Ensure you know your fractional and decimal odds.  This will allow you to use both the bookmakers and www.betfair.com as your resources with which to mine for 1/5, 1 /4 and 1/3 shots. For the record, a 1/5 shot is 1.20 in decimal odds. A 1 /4 shot is 1.25 in decimal odds. A 1/3 shot is 1.33 in decimal odds.
2) Don’t restrict yourself to backing selections in order to make your quota of 1/5 , 1/4 and 1/3 shots. With our ability to lay ( as the patriarch reminds us this month), we can get the same return as a 1/5 , 1/4 and 1/3 shot by laying selections at certain prices. Keep a note of the lay odds below which correspond to the same as backing the selection.
1/5 shot is 1.20  - lay a selection at 6.00  . Backing a 1.20 shot with £100 will return £20. Laying a selection at odds of 6.00 for £100 liability ( not stake) will return around £20.
1 /4 shot is 1.25 – lay a selection at 5.00. Backing a 1.25 shot with £100 will return £25. Laying a selection at odds of 5.00 for £100 liability ( not stake) will return around £25.
1/3 shot is 1.33 – lay a selection at 4.00. Backing a 1.33 shot with £100 will return £33. Laying a selection at odds of 4.00 for £100 liability ( not stake) will return around £33.

What I am going to attempt now is to try and sniff out a 1.2, 1.25 or 1.3 shot which can be backed, or a 6.00, 5.00 or 4.00 shot which can be layed.
 I will use the techniques I suggested within the article. I hope you find it informative


RACING POST SHORTLISTERS/PRICE GAPPERS. We look to find horses with an obvious chance of winning, but we want to back them in the TO PLACE ONLY  market.

Yesterday
Kibaar won at 4/11, Kafeel won at 1/2 so 100% record yesterday
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
610 bath
Betting forecast: 11/10 Jimmy´s Girl, 11/2 Powerfulstorm, 6/1 Multi Quest, 6/1 Scent Of Power, 12/1 Frank The Barber, 16/1 Indian Tim, 16/1 King´s Bond, 20/1 Spirit In Time.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Powerfulstorm has been a single-figure price on both runs so far and although she's yet to beat a rival, she could have more to come in headgear and this looks particularly weak. JIMMY'S GIRL has her limitations but she should give her running and that could be enough to see her get off the mark at the fourth attempt.[Paul Smith]

yes a maiden, but I do like the profile here, 2 consecutive 2nd places for the fav and 3 places NON RUNNER

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330 Brighton
Betting forecast: 1/2 Tryster, 9/2 Mbhali, 5/1 Executrix, 14/1 Dream And Hope, 50/1 Red Inferno.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: TRYSTER probably doesn't need to improve on his promising recent debut at Newmarket to get off the mark here. Executrix didn't show much on her first start but has an excellent pedigree and is in good hands.[Chris Wilson]

another maiden, fav has had only 1 run and is expected to win or place in 1st 2 at least.

1st 5/6

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550 Gowran Park
Betting forecast: 4/7 Highland Reel, 9/2 Hall Of Fame, 11/2 Crescent, 6/1 Taqaseem, 10/1 Kilimanjaro, 14/1 Fresh Focus, 20/1 Nickscreamcracker, 25/1 Ripped, 50/1 Cleano.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: HIGHLAND REEL is hard to oppose on the basis of an opening run at Leopardstown which gives him the measure of two key opponents, Crescent and Taqaseem. [Alan Sweetman]

The usual Aiden O'Brien shortie here after only 1 run and in another maiden.

1st 8/15
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TENNIS SHORT PRICES

See the shortlist for my list of results.

Today
9am  - Hans Podlipnik Castillo v Lucas Pouille  - 1.31 Pou - 211th v 188th - WIN 2 SETS

1130am - Simona Halep v Zarina Diyas  - 1.12 Sim - 3rd v 72nd 1-0 H2H - WIN 2 SETS

1130am - Sabine Lisicki v Yaroslava Shvedova  - 1.3 Sab - 19th v 65th 2-1 H2H - WIN 3 SETS

1245pm - Nikola Cacic v Pablo Carreno Busta  - 1.12 pab - 548th v 60th - CACIC WIN 2 SETS

1245pm - Andrey Golubev v Matteo Viola  - 1.25 And - 56th v 178th  - 1-0 - WIN 2 SETS

1pm - Angelique Kerber v Maria Sharapova  - 1.25 Shara - 7th v 5th and 1-4 H2H - WIN 3 SETS

1pm - Tommy Robredo v Roger Federer  - 1.06 Fed - 22nd v 10th  1-10 H2H - WIN 3 SETS

230pm - Nick Kyrgios v Rafael Nadal  - 1.06 Nad - 144th v 1st LOST 4 SETS

430pm - Petra Kvitova v Barbora Zahlavova Strycova  - 1.32 Pet - 6th v 43rd 3-1 H2H - WIN 2 SETS

8pm - Tatsuma Ito v Marcelo Arevalo  - 1.24 Tat - 129th v 435th - WIN 2 SETS






------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FOOTBALL SHORTIES

Yesterday - France won and Germany drew 0-0 - I mentioned it was riskier than usual

Today
445pm - Sliema Wanderers v Ferencvaros  - 1.3 away 1-1

730pm - La Fiorita v Levadia Tallinn  - 1.37 away 0-1

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SHORTLIST

Yesterday


130pm - Petra Kvitova v Shuai Peng  - 1.16 Kvit - 6th v 61st  4-0 H2H - I like the gap in rankings here and the head to heads which are comprehensive. This is slightly under our 1.2 minimum for this each way treble. WON 2 SETS

1130am - Tereza Smitkova v Lucie Safarova  - 1.23 Saf -  175th v 23rd - another whopping rankings gap here. - WON 2 SETS

9pm - Germany v Algeria  - 1.32 home - a slight risk here as this is a winner-takes-all match. Algeria have scored and conceded in all World Cup matches in 2014 and were beaten by Belgium. Germany, like Belgium., have a solid attacking line-up 0-0

815 Ffos Las
Betting forecast: Evs Kafeel, 5/1 Know Your Name, 5/1 Space Walker, 6/1 Unison, 7/1 Caramack. WIN

A good day if you got your 3 trebles done in time order before the Germany match!

Today

The horse racing is all maiden led which is a real turn off. I am, though, taken by the profile of this race

610 bath
Betting forecast: 11/10 Jimmy´s Girl, 11/2 Powerfulstorm, 6/1 Multi Quest, 6/1 Scent Of Power, 12/1 Frank The Barber, 16/1 Indian Tim, 16/1 King´s Bond, 20/1 Spirit In Time.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Powerfulstorm has been a single-figure price on both runs so far and although she's yet to beat a rival, she could have more to come in headgear and this looks particularly weak. JIMMY'S GIRL has her limitations but she should give her running and that could be enough to see her get off the mark at the fourth attempt.[Paul Smith]

yes a maiden, but I do like the profile here, 2 consecutive 2nd places for the fav and 3 places - NON RUNNER

--------------------------------

1245pm - Nikola Cacic v Pablo Carreno Busta  - 1.12 pab - 548th v 60th  - a massive rankings gap - perhaps a straight sets win will boost the odds? LOST

230pm - Nick Kyrgios v Rafael Nadal  - 1.06 Nad - 144th v 1st - you've seen how unreliable 3-0 set betting can be, but surely 144th in the world will not land a blow against a fully fit Rafa? There is another way to get the odds we are looking for. perhaps back Rafa to win the first set. LOST

730pm - La Fiorita v Levadia Tallinn  - 1.37 away - as with the Germany match, this is a risky one, it's the Champions league, but I am taken by a Levadia team who love winning, and keeping clean sheets. They come off the back of a 19-0 win in the Cup and are playing a team from the San Marino league. We might have a good chance here. Do note this is a 2 legged affair which adds further risk as a win is not required is it? - WIN