Thursday, 19 December 2013

20th december and the weekend

Friday

5pm - Rizespor v Kasimpasa - 2.2 away

Standout stats

Profitable in play opportunities

530pm - St Pauli v Karlsruhe - 1.95 home
Standout stats

  • Head to heads point to St Pauli dominating since returning to the 2nd tier of German football after flirting with the Bundesliga
  • This is 3rd v 5th so might be tighter than an odds on quote might suggest.
  • 4 wins in their last 5 sees St Pauli in good recent form. 
  • St Pauli have though only won 1 of their last 5 home matches.
  • They are yet to play 2nd-6th inclusive at home but did lose 3-0 to top side koln.
  • 3 of St Pauli's wins came against bottom 3 sides at home.
  • Away from the bottom 3, St Pauli have had trouble scoring more than 1 goal.
  • St Pauli have scored 8 home goals ( from 10 total) in the 2nd half.
  • St Pauli have had 6 0-0's at halftime at home.
  • Karlsruher have had only 4 defeats this season and are on a current run of 8 without defeat.
  • Both sides' recent strengths have been in defence. St Pauli have kept 4 clean sheets in their last 5 matches, with Karlsruher doing the same.
  • It's 50/50 who scores first.



Profitable in play opportunities

  • No real killer stats here. We have 2 in form sides clashing today with identical recent clean sheet records ( 4 in their last 5).
  • St Pauli have had 5 0-0's at halftime at home, so if 0-0 at halftime do not be surprised. 
  • 0-0 might be backable pre match in the hope these 2's defences dominate as they have recently.
  • I would have to side with Karlsruher here if forced to make a selection in a well-matched  game. I think they could get a goal back if St Pauli score first.


7pm - Almere City v Dordrecht - 2.12 away
Standout stats

  • This is an eerste division match from Holland and I suppose, remaining positive, that goals are what characterise these leagues.
  • Since 2012 Dordrecht have won all 4 head to heads, but both teams have scored. So we have a naturalised over 2.5 goals bet at least.
  • This is 16th v 1st. You'd have expected a far shorter away side, given their current status! I actually just checked the coupon again to make sure I did not write the odds down incorrectly!!
  • Almere are on a 5 match unbeaten run presently, but struggle for consistency.
  • Against the top 10 at home, they have lost 3 and drawn 1 , conceding 4-4-2-3 goals.
  • Outside of the top 10 at home, Almere are a lot better.
  • Almere have won their last 2 home matches ( outside top 10) without conceding.
  • Almere have kept only 3 clean sheets this season.
  • 60% of Almere's home matches were over 3.5 goals.
  • Almere have not had a home 0-0.
  • Dordrecht have lost only 4 this season, and did win their last match, an away match v 8th.
  • Dordrecht have failed to win in their last 2 away matches, and against 14th and lower, show 3 wins ( 2 to nil), a 0-0 and a 2-0 loss to 15th ( they play 16th today). Perhaps their relatively big odds are down to their away inconsistencies.
  • Dordrecht have only 1 0-0 away



Profitable in play opportunities

  • Almere actually tend to concede 3+ goals on average v top 10 sides at home, but if that was factored in today, Dordrecht's odds would be a lot shorter.
  • Both teams could reasonably score today as they have done in the last 4 head to heads.If Almere score first, lay them, as they have kept only 3 clean sheets all season.


----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

7pm - Clermont v CA Bastia - 1.49 home
Standout stats

  • There are no head to heads
  • This is 8th v 20th ( and bottom)
  • Clermont are unbeaten at home but have 5 draws in their last 7 home matches.
  • The draws have tended to appear at home v 12th and above. 
  • Clermont have beaten the bottom 6th 2-1, 1-0 and 2-0 .
  • Clermont have scored 5 goals in the last 1/4 hour of matches.
  • Clermont have never led at halftime, neither have their opponents! Draw at halftime?
  • Clermont have had 7 0-0's at halftime.
  • Bastia have won only 1 match , a 0-1.
  • Bastia have failed to score in 4 of their last 6 matches.
  • Bastia have failed to score in 6 of their 9 away matches.



Profitable in play opportunities

  • How are Bastia going to win? Yes they kept 3 clean sheets in their last 5, but they've only won 1 and drawn 2 away matches.
  • Ignore the 0-0 halftime score lay. Clermont have had 7 0-0's at halftime at home.
  • Clermont have had 5 draws in their last 7 home, so if Bastia happen to score first , lay them.


----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

7pm - FC Eindhoven v Telstar - 1.66 home
Standout stats

  • Telstar have won the last 3 head to heads so why are the home team 1.66 favourites.
  • This is 4th v 17th this season. That may be the reason.
  • Eindhoven have scored and conceded in 9 of their 11 home matches.
  • Eindhoven have only lost 2 matches at home, and yes, conceded in those.
  • Eindhoven have scored and conceded in 13 of their last 14 matches.
  • Eindhoven have scored in their last 10 at home, and last 18 overall.
  • 64% of Eindhoven's home matches have been over 3.5 goals.
  • Eindhoven have only had 1 0-0 this season.
  • Telstar have hit a wall, winning only 1 of their last 13 matches. 
  • Against top 10, Telstar have scored and conceded in 5 of 6 matches.
  • Telstar have conceded in their last 10 matches away and last 8 overall. 
  • Both sides have only had a single 0-0 each this season.
Profitable in play opportunities
  • Stats seem to point to both teams scoring and conceding. 
  • What's with telstar winning the last 3 head to heads? It goes against current form. 
  • Eindhoven have scored in their last 18 overall so expect a goal if they are conceding or if it's 0-0.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


7pm - Porto v Olhanense - 1.11 home
Standout stats

  • Porto used to win this encounter to nil , but the last 2 head to heads saw a 2-3 away win and a 1-1 draw. The odds suggest a return to wins to nil.
  • This is 2nd v 15th. A win will take Porto provisionally top.
  • Porto have only l loss this season, that's 1 more than they had last season. At home Porto remain strong with all wins bar a single draw.
  • Porto have won to nil against 7th, 8th and 11th and play 15th today at home.
  • Porto have failed to score in only 1 match this season. 
  • Porto have only kept 1 clean sheet in their last 7 matches. This is most unlike the Porto of last year.
  • Porto have scored in their last 6 home matches.
  • Porto have not had a 0-0 this season.
  • Olhanense have won only 2 matches this season, , both 1-0
  • They have lost their last 4 matches.
  • Olhanense have not played top 4 away yet this season.
  • They have conceded 2-3-2 at home to top 4 sides so that is a template for possible goals scored by Porto today.
Profitable in play opportunities

  • Olhanense should not threaten. 2 wins came at home to bottom 3 sides ( where they are).
  • Look for a possible 2/3 goal haul for Porto although 1.11 suggests 3/4 and a possible clean sheet.
  • Note Porto have been slovenly in defence. 1 clean sheet in their last 7 matches. 
  • Motivation is with Porto to go provisionally top, so if this is 0-0 for a long while, faith in Porto scoring ( they have only failed to score in 1 all season).
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


7pm - Waalwijk v Twente - 1.51 away

Standout stats

  • 2 consecutive 0-0's in head to heads and prior to that 2 0-1s ( 1 each team)
  • This is 15th v 3rd. The Eredivisie is open this year. 3 points could take Twente top.
  • It's a season of 2 halves for Waalwijk. First half of the season 1 win in 10 matches. Next part of the season, 1 defeat in 7. Will Waalwijk be a stumbling block for Twente?
  • Win, Win, Draw for Waalwijk in their last 3 home matches.
  • Waalwijk have actually beaten 1st and 4th at home which is quite impressive. Their 2 clean sheets at home saw wins.
  • Waalwijk have scored in their last 8 at home. 
  • It's 50/50 who scores first here.
  • Twente have lost only 2, both away. 
  • Twente have won their last 4 .
  • Twente have scored and conceded in last 8 matches.
  • Waalwijk have failed to score in only 2 and Twente in only 2 this season too.
  • Twente have scored in their last 13 matches.
  • Twente have scored 10 away goals in the last 1/2 hour of matches.


Profitable in play opportunities

  • Both teams are in good recent form. Waalwijk have beaten the top 5 at home that they have played.
  • Twente tend to concede first away but not lose to a good drt in prospect.
  • Twente have scored in their last 13, and both teams have scored in their last 8 matches.
  • 0-0 pre match back to lay incase the head to heads tightness is duplicate.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


730pm - Eintracht Frankfurt v Augsburg - 2.34 home
Standout stats

  • This is the solitary Bundesliga match this evening.
  • Inconclusive head to heads see both teams winning ( hence I suppose the non-committal odds 
  • This is 15th v 8th and the last match before the Winter Break ( poor loves, paid X many thousands a week and cannot cope with a little inclement weather)/
  • Frankfurt have only 3 wins, all away and all to nil. How much confidence will they get from beating Leverkusen 0-1 at the weekend?
  • Frankfurt are yet to win at home, and have scored and conceded in all home matches bar a 0-1 loss to Bayern Munich.
  • Frankfurt have conceded 1-2-2-3-2-2-1 at home.
  • Frankfurt have only 3 clean sheets all season and have failed to score in only 3 all season.
  • Frankfury have scored in their last 6 home matches.
  • All of Frankfurt's scoring action occurs in the 1/4 hour before and after halftime.
  • Frankfurt have not had a 0-0 this season.
  • Augsburg are unbeaten in their last 2 away matches this season, and prior to those 2 away matches, played Bayern and Leverkusen.
  • Against teams around Frankfurt's position in the league, Augsburg have 2 1-0 wins and a 0-1 loss.
  • Augsburg have won 4, drawn 1 and lost only to Bayern in their last 6 matches.
  • Their last 2 aways were 0-1 and 0-0.
  • Augsburg have kept 3 clean sheets in their last 4 matches and have failed to score in only 4 this season.
  • Augsburg are most vulnerable to conceding in the last 1/4 hour of matches.


Profitable in play opportunities

  • Frankfurt still cannot win at home, but how much of a boost will that unlikely 0-1 away win at Leverkusen have tonight? 
  • Frankfurt tend to concede 2 at home.
  • Frankfurt avoid 0-0's so lay 0-0 late and low , what with Augsburg failing to score in only 4 this season.
  • This might be a prolonged 0-0, with Augsburg keeping 3 clean sheets in their last 4.
  • If Augsburg win, you feel it might be a 0-1.


----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

730pm - Elche v Malaga - 2.36 home
Standout stats

  • The sole la Liga match of the day is another tough one to fathom, as we see with a " favourite " priced at 2.36
  • This is a match for the home team. In the last 4 head to heads, the home side has won. But wait, I have just noticed the last head to head was 2008 so scratch that.
  • These 2 teams are 14th and 13th, have identical points and near identical records bar a 2 goal goal difference. This further strengthens my disdain for this as a betting medium. But are there any standout stats?
  • 3 defeats and 1 win in their last 4 home matches for Elche.
  • They have lost 3 home matches to top 5 sides, not unexpected. They have beaten 9th and 12th 2-1.
  • Elche have kept only 2 clean sheets all season.
  • Elche have conceded in their last 6 home matches and last 9 overall.
  • Elche have had 5 halftime 0-0's at home
  • Malaga are yet to win away from home.
  • Malaga ended a 2 match away run without a goal by scoring in their 2 latest away matches. 
  • Just as Elche have only 1 win in 7, Malaga have only 2 wins in 10.


Profitable in play opportunities

  • Just because we research a match, it does not mean it is a good betting medium. I have leaving this match well alone.


----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

730pm - Monaco v Valenciennes - 1.31 home
Standout stats

  • The last league head to head was in 2011 and was a 0-0.
  • This is 2nd v 18th. It's dingdong at the top between Monaco and PSG
  • Monaco have only lost 1 this season 
  • monaco have won 6 of their last 7 home matches.
  • Monaco have not conceded more than 1 goal at home.
  • monaco have scored in their last 7 at home and last 6 overall.
  • Monaco have scored 11 home goals in the first half. A 0-0 halftime score lay?
  • Valenciennes have won only 1 away match against 2nd bottom. 
  • Valenciennes have scored and conceded in 8 of their last 10.
  • They have had 3 0-0's in their last 4 matches.
  • Valenciennes have conceded in their last 17 matches.
Profitable in play opportunities
  • This looks straightforward. Monaco should score. If it's 0-0 for a while then lay the 0-0 or back Monaco .
  • If Valenciennes take the lead, lay them. They have conceded in their last 17 matches.
  • There may be an opportunity for a 0-0 halftime score lay based on Monaco scoring 11 home goals in the first half
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


9pm - Setubal v Benfica - 1.36 away
Standout stats

  • Benfica have won all head to heads scoring 3-2-4-3-5-3 - that's some consistency which would normally signal a lower quote .
  • This is 10th v 3rd. The top of the league is tight so Benfica must really win the matches they are expected to win.
  • Only 5 defeats for Setabul this season, and only 2 at home. Draw Draw Win Win in their last 4 home matches.
  • It's a home league of 2 halves. Setabul have conceded 3 against 2nd, 2 against 8th and 4 v 11th. Against 12th and below, scorelines of 1-0, 0-0, 1-0.
  • Benfica have lost only 1 match, their first match of the season. Their 2nd match of the season saw me back them at 120 and win!
  • 5 consecutive away wins now for Benfica.
  • Benfica have scored 3-3-3 in their last 3 away matches ( remember their scoring in head to heads?)
  • Benfica have scored in all matches this season.
  • Benfica have scored and conceded in 5 of 7 away matches 
  • Benfica have scored in their last 13 matches.
  • Benfica have obviously not had a 0-0 this season.
Profitable in play opportunities
  • Benfica have scored in all matches this season. Remember that if 0-0.
  • Benfica could score at least 3 goals as they have in last 3 away matches and in head to heads.


----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SATURDAY
1215pm - Celtic v Hearts - 1.13 home
Standout stats

  • 1.13 suggests goals immediately. 3/4 expected and a possible win to nil.
  • This is 1st v 12th with Hearts deducted 15 points this season.
  • Big numbers from Celtic in head to heads - 5-1-4-4-3-7 in the last 6 head to heads
  • Celtic are unbeaten. 
  • Celtic have won 4 of their last 5 home matches.
  • Celtic have scored in all matches this season.
  • Celtic have not had a 0-0 halftime score this season.
  • Celtic have scored 5 goals at home in the last 1/4 hour.
  • Only 1 win in 12 for Hearts includes a 1-3 loss to Celtic.
  • Hearts have kept only 2 clean sheets.
  • Hearts have conceded in their last 8 matches.
  • Hearts have conceded 6 in the last 1/4 hour away.

Profitable in play opportunities

  • Look to head to heads as confirmation that 1.13 means goals. 
  • Lay 0-0 halftime score as late as possible. 
  • Hearts will concede at some stage it seems so if a late 0-0 , or Hearts lead, lay it.


1215pm - QPR v Leicester - 2.18 home
Standout stats

Profitable in play opportunities

1245pm - Liverpool v Cardiff - 1.23 home
Standout stats

  • No recent head to heads.
  • This is 2nd v 15th and Liverpool must take advantage of Man City's ability to beat Arsenal last weekend. There are only 3 points separating the teams this time.
  • Liverpool have lost 3 this season, 2 away and 1 at home , when Southampton kept them from scoring. 
  • Since that Southampton loss, Liverpool have scored 3,4,4,5,4 at home and 3-3-2-4-0-4-3-1-5-4-5 overall. That's some good goal scoring and I believe recently that Sturridge is out.
  • Liverpool have only failed to score in 2 this season, and they lost.
  • Liverpool have beaten 13th-19th inclusive at home - guess where Cardiff fit in?
  • Liverpool have scored 14 1st half goals without reply  at home .
  • Suarez is the man. He's doing at Liverpool what he did at Ajax. 17 goals in total, 12 at home.
  • Liverpool have not had a 0-0 this season.
  • Liverpool have had 10 over 2.5 goals matches in their last 11 ( the only exception a 2-0 loss to Arsenal).
  • Cardiff have only won 1 away match, against Fulham.
  • Cardiff have only won 2 of their last 11 matches, and those wins were 1-0.
  • Cardiff have failed to score in 4 of their last 6.
  • Cardiff have played only 1 of the top 10, a 4-1 loss to Chelsea, but it does present us with a ? as to how they will set up against the best.
  • Cardiff have only scored more than 1 goal in 1 away match.
  • Cardiff have never led at halftime. If they are leading at halftime, lay them.
Profitable in play opportunities
  • Keep Suarez  and Liverpool will win it seems. They could score 3-5 goals today if recent goalscoring is anything to go by.
  • Lay the halftime score 0-0 I think when Liverpool play at home.
  • Liverpool should beat Cardiff. They have beaten 13th-19th inclusive and Cardiff are 15th. If Cardiff lead or if it's 0-0 for a concerted period , lay Cardiff ( back Liverpool?) and lay 0-0.


2pm - Eskisehirspor v Gaziantepspor - 1.81 home
Standout stats

Profitable in play opportunities

230pm - Braunschweig v Hoffenheim - 1.94 away
Standout stats

Profitable in play opportunities

230pm - Dortmund v Hertha Berlin - 1.39 home
Standout stats

  • It's been tough in the last 3 head to heads for Dortmund with a 0-0, 1-2 loss and tight 0-1 win.
  • This is 3rd v 7th and a feeling Dortmund are playing for 2nd at most.
  • Dortmund are very vulnerable of late. LLWLD  ( L=Loss, W=Win, D=Draw). Is this down to Champions League excersions?
  • Dortmund have lost their last 2 home matches without scoring, BUT they happened to be against 1st and 2nd in the league.



Profitable in play opportunities

230pm - Freiburg v Hannover - 2.62 home
Standout stats

Profitable in play opportunities

230pm - Hamburg v Mainz - 2.16 home
Standout stats

Profitable in play opportunities

230pm - W Bremen v Leverkusen - 1.82 away
Standout stats

Profitable in play opportunities

3pm - C Palace v Newcastle  -2.4 away
Standout stats

Profitable in play opportunities

3pm - Derby v Doncaster - 1.46 home
Standout stats

Profitable in play opportunities

3pm - Dundee Utd v Ross Co - 1.4 home
Standout stats

Profitable in play opportunities

3pm - Fulham v Man City - 1.41 away
Standout stats

Profitable in play opportunities

3pm - Man Utd v West Ham - 1.38 home
Standout stats

Profitable in play opportunities

3pm - Stoke v Aston Villa - 2.34 home
Standout stats

Profitable in play opportunities

3pm - Sunderland v Norwich - 2.1 home
Standout stats

Profitable in play opportunities

3pm - Villarreal v Sevilla - 1.92 home
Standout stats

Profitable in play opportunities

3pm - West Brom v Hull - 1.96 home
Standout stats

Profitable in play opportunities

4pm - Pacos Ferreira v Rio Ave - 2.26 home
Standout stats

Profitable in play opportunities

4pm - St Etienne v Nantes - 1.86 home
Standout stats

Profitable in play opportunities

430pm - Astra Giurgiu v Steaua Bucharest - 2.52 away
Standout stats

Profitable in play opportunities

5pm - Besiktas v Elazigspor - 1.36 home
Standout stats

Profitable in play opportunities

5pm - Betis v Almeria - 1.78 home
Standout stats

Profitable in play opportunities

5pm - Cercle Brugge v Genk - 1.99 away
Standout stats

Profitable in play opportunities

5pm - Livorno v Udinese - 2.5 away
Standout stats

Profitable in play opportunities

530pm - Apollon Smirnis v Olympiakos  - illiquid
Standout stats

Profitable in play opportunities

530pm - Nurnberg v Schalke - 2.2 away
Standout stats

Profitable in play opportunities

545pm - AZ Alkmaar v Heerenveen - 1.86 home
Standout stats

Profitable in play opportunities

545pm - Willem II v Excelsior - 1.65 home
Standout stats

Profitable in play opportunities

615pm - Guimaraes v Academica - 1.93 home
Standout stats

Profitable in play opportunities

645pm - Breda v Cambuur - 2.12 home
Standout stats

Profitable in play opportunities

645pm - Heracles v Vitesse - 1.9 away
Standout stats

Profitable in play opportunities

7pm - Atl Madrid v Levante - 1.18 home
Standout stats

Profitable in play opportunities

7pm - KV Mechelen v KV Kortrijk - 2.18 home
Standout stats

Profitable in play opportunities

7pm - Lokeren v Oud-Heverlee Leuven - 1.43 home
Standout stats

Profitable in play opportunities

7pm - Nice v Evian TG - 1.96 home
Standout stats

Profitable in play opportunities

7pm - Reims v Ajaccio - 1.72 home
Standout stats

Profitable in play opportunities

7pm - Toulouse v Guingamp - 1.81 home
Standout stats

Profitable in play opportunities

7pm - Waasland-Beveren v Lierse - 2.3 home
Standout stats

Profitable in play opportunities

7pm - Zulte-Waregem v Oostende - 1.45 home
Standout stats

Profitable in play opportunities

745pm - Cagliari v Napoli - 2.1 away
Standout stats

Profitable in play opportunities

745pm - Feyenoord v Zwolle - 1.38 home
Standout stats

Profitable in play opportunities

815pm - Sp Lisbon v Nacional - 1.45 home
Standout stats

Profitable in play opportunities

SUNDAY

1130am  - Roda V Ajax - 1.53 away
Standout stats

Profitable in play opportunities

1230pm - Greuther Furth v Aalen - 1.57 home
Standout stats

Profitable in play opportunities

1pm - Marseille v Bordeaux - 1.95 home
Standout stats

Profitable in play opportunities

130pm - Southampton v Tottenham - 2.6 both sides
Standout stats

Profitable in play opportunities

130pm - Groningen V NEC Nijmegen - 1.65 home
Standout stats

Profitable in play opportunities

2pm - Atalanta v Juventus - 1.44 away
Standout stats

Profitable in play opportunities

2pm - Sassuolo v Fiorentina - 1.75 away
Standout stats

Profitable in play opportunities

2pm - Roma v Catania - 1.22 home
Standout stats

Profitable in play opportunities

2pm - Kardemir Karabukspor V Fenerbahçe - 1.57 away
Standout stats

Profitable in play opportunities

230pm - Borussia Mönchengladbach v Wolfsburg - 2.1 home
Standout stats

Profitable in play opportunities

330pm - PSV Eindhoven V ADO Den Haag - 1.22 home
Standout stats

Profitable in play opportunities

4pm - Swansea v Everton - 2.37 away
Standout stats

Profitable in play opportunities

4pm - Getafe v Barcelona - 1.45 away
Standout stats

Profitable in play opportunities

5pm - Standard Liege V Anderlecht - 2.05 home
Standout stats

Profitable in play opportunities

6pm - Athletic Bilbao v Rayo Vallecano - 1.5 home
Standout stats

Profitable in play opportunities

6pm - Galatasaray V Trabzonspor - 1.57 home
Standout stats

Profitable in play opportunities

745pm - Inter v Milan - 2.5 home
Standout stats

Profitable in play opportunities

8pm - Valencia v Real Madrid - 1.61 away
Standout stats

Profitable in play opportunities

8pm - PSG v Lille - 1.4 home

Standout stats

Profitable in play opportunities



No comments:

Post a Comment