14th September 2014

14th September 2014

10:30 UK Spartak Moscow   v   Torpedo Moscow - 1.36 home
Standout stats

profitable in-play opportunities





13:00 UK Lille   v   Nantes - 1.7 home
Standout stats

profitable in-play opportunities





13:30 UK Vitesse   v   Excelsior - 1.36 home
Standout stats

• no 2013/ 2014 head to heads suggest Excelsior are newly promoted
• this is the dutch eredivisie and is only 4 matches old
• This is 17th v 6th so Vitesse are having a terrible start to the season.

Vitesse

• no win in 13 Eredivisie matches and you want me to back Vitesse at 1.36? Would you also like me to fetch you a bucket of steam?
• LDLL ( L=Loss, D=Draw) this season . Vitesse have played Ajax and PSV amongst the 4 teams.
• no win in 6 home matches sees 4 score draws.  So near to a win with Cambuur this season with a 2-1 lead being stolen with a draw at the end.

Excelsior

• draw , 2 wins and a loss this season is a good start. Yet to meet any of the marque teams though
• A loss and a draw so far away might signal vulnerability away but the sample is small.

profitable in-play opportunities

• a match to watch and react to in-play . We need to see an improvement in an off-the-boil Vitesse side . Do note that Excelsior's form may be a false dawn as they are yet to meet the established top 5 dutch sides yet. Vitesse so nearly won their last home match so I think a win is near ( and much needed)
• Both teams to score? It might be worth it as 6 of these 2 teams's 8 matches in total have seen both teams scoring.

14:00 UK Fiorentina   v   Genoa - 1.6 home
Standout stats

• 3-2 Fiorentina, 2-5 Fiorentina, and 3-3 in head to heads recently
• only 1 match for these 2 this season, Fiorentina losing to Roma 2-0 and Genoa losing to Napoli 1-2

Fiorentina

• only 2 wins in 8 matches at home in Seria A

Genoa

• only 2 wins in 13 matches in Seria A
• only 3 away wins in 21 Seria A matches

profitable in-play opportunities

• cannot get too indepth with 1 match played this season. What strikes me? Genoa's dire away record from the end of last season. Surely advantage the home side today therefore?
• Match odds - such is the goals tally between these 2 , we could lay any side who take a 2-0 lead 
• Halftime/Score - based solely on head to heads, if this is goal heaven again today, then surely we can lay the 0-0 halftime score?

14:00 UK Halmstads BK   v   Mjallby - 1.75 home
Standout stats

• Halmstads have won the last 2 home head to heads 1-0. It seems that the home team benefits in this match.
• This is the Swedish Allsvenskan and features 9th v 15th of 16

Halmstads

• have scored in their last 7 and conceded in their last 12 matches overall.
• have scored in their last 9 at home and conceded in their last 6 at home.
• only 2 defeats in 11 matches is good form.
• have scored and conceded in 9 of their last 10 matches
• only 2 clean sheets this season
• have failed to score in only 2 of their last 18 matches
• good form v bottom 6 at home 
• both teams score in 73% of matches this season
• 5 0-0's at halftime at home is quite high

Mjallby

• have conceded in their last 6 matches and last 5 away matches
• only 1 away win was v bottom side
• have not scored more than a single goal in an away game
• only 3 clean sheets all season
• have conceded 16 of their 21 away conceded goals in the 2nd half.

profitable in-play opportunities

• match Odds - both sides are leaky so if Mjallby score first, lay them. Both sides have terrible clean sheets stats so either side could open the scoring and then concede
• Halftime/Score - both sides have quite high 0-0 halftime stats - it's literally 50/50 whether it will be 0-0 at halftime. fear not sa Mjallby start conceding bucket loads 2nd half
• Both teams to score - gets a resounding thumbs up here looking at the stats

14 Sep 14:00 UK Inter Milan   v   Sassuolo  - 1.5 home
Standout stats

• 2 head to heads and 2 wins for Inter Milan to nil 

Inter Milan

• A 0-0 this season so far v Torino.
• only 1 loss in their last 15 home matches but note - 8 draws in those matches. This is not the Inter Milan we know.

Sassuolo

• A 1-1 this season saw Sassuolo score first at home v cagliari.
• have scored and conceded in 6 of their last 7 matches
• only 4 wins in 19 Seria A away matches, but 3 wins in their last 4 aways.

profitable in-play opportunities

• Inter Milan should logically win today. Little to go on . Inter Milan have had a recent poor habit of drawing at home. So if Sassuolo score first, lay them first. 
• Correct score - can Inter Milan collect another win to nil? If you think so, then it's good to have a correct score punt. 

14 Sep 14:00 UK Lazio   v   Cesena  - 1.33 home
Standout stats

• Cesena are back in Seria A after a season in Seria B
• only 1 match played in Seria A this season
• Last season Lazio only lost 3 home matches. They only won 2 home matches against the top 11 sides but beat all teams 12th and lower bar 1. My assumption is that Cesena may be a bottom half side and consequently vulnerable 
• Lazio lost 3-1 to Milan and Cesena won 1-0 v Parma in their opening matches this season

profitable in-play opportunities

• little to go on so early in the season.
• Match Odds - based strictly on assumption ( which can bite you on the ass , especially regarding newly promoted sides), it seems Lazio have a good record at home to likely bottom 1/2 sides. Should Cesena take the lead, they I would expect Lazio to equalise and push on. 2/3 goals expected from them today.

14 Sep 14:00 UK Napoli   v   Chievo  - 1.4 home
Standout stats

• Chievo, Napoli, Draw in head to heads doesn't help unravel this match, neither does the fact that Seria A is only 1 match old, so do note that .
• Napoli have a Europa league match next week. I personally feel that they are a Champions League side and not a Europa League side so I don't see this impending lesser european competition impacting performance today 

napoli

• only 3 losses since December 2013 in Seria A is impressive stuff
• So far this season, a lucky 1-2 away win v Genoa saw a 90th minute winner
• only 2 defeats at home since january 2013 were 0-1 losses. Should be tough to beat in all home matches.

Chievo

• no draw in 18 matches in Seria A saw 12 defeats.
• A 0-1 loss to Juventus on the opening day was down to an own goal.
• only 4 wins in 20 away matches. Yes, did win 2 of their last 3 aways at the back end of last season but probability is for only 1 win in every 5 away matches
• 3-3-3-3-3-2-2-0 conceded in away matches at the end of last season.

profitable in-play opportunities

• tough to call as we are only 1 match in. I see a tough to beat home team playing a tough-to-win-away away team .
• What do we make of Chievo's good display against Juventus? Only an own goal defated them. It's only 1 match, it was the first match of the season and may have just been 1st match motivation that had Chievo fired up for the opening match..  favour napoli or just join me at the live chat and see how the match plays out?

14 Sep 15:30 UK Wolfsberger   v   Salzburg - 1.44 away
Standout stats

• Champions league curse for Salzburg? Live chatters saw them crash and burn last time they played but a DRT profit was realisable.
• 5-0 and 6-0 in head to heads recently for Salzburg but Wolfsberger did win the last head to head, albeit on the 11th May. Dead rubber for already title winning Salzburg?

Wolfsberger

• 7 consecutive Bundesliga wins ended with a 0-1 home loss this season
• only 1 draw in 14 matches at home. 3 home wins in their last 4 included that 2-0 win against Salzburg

Salzburg

• Champions League curse to strike or back to winning ways after shock defeat latest?
• 1.44 is untypically big for Salzburg.
• 6 consecutive wins ended with that 2-3 defeat to Sturm Graz.
• 3 consecutive away wins,all to nil

profitable in-play opportunities

• Match Odds - Salzburg were reliable DRT candidates after Sturm Graz went 0-2 up.Red Bull levelled the match at 2-2 before Sturm got a late winner. Same again today please if Wolfsberger score first! Lay any late draw here
• Champions League curse potentially scuppers any other angles in for me so join me in the live chat.

230pm - Eintracht Frankfurt v Augsburg  - 2.32 home
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Profitable in-play opportunities






230pm - Gornik Zabrze v Piast Gliwice  - 1.83 home
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Profitable in-play opportunities






3pm - FC Zurich v Sion  - 1.64 home
Standout stats

• Draw, Zurich, Zurich, Sion in head to heads, the last 2 were 1-0 wins to each side.
• This is the Swiss Super league and it is 7 matches old. It's a league of only 10 teams so an air of familiarity about these teams ?

FC Zurich

• solid home form, albeit 3 matches, but 3 wins 
• Scored in all matches this season
• have conceded in 5 matches

Sion

• 2 wins this season were both 1-0 and at home.
• DLDL ( D=Draw, L=Loss) away from home. 
• Only the last 2 matches have been over 2.5 goals.

Profitable in-play opportunities

• limited matches to go on but a pattern of solidity for FC Zurich at home is backed up by their odds today. Sion are yet to win away and when they have won ( at home) , the wins were only 1-0
• Favour the home side today therefore

3pm - Ljungskile v Assyriska  - 1.56 home
Standout stats

Profitable in-play opportunities









14 Sep 16:00 UK Man Utd   v   QPR  - 1.28 home
Standout stats

• no Champions League distractions here!
• United tend to beat QPR when they meet.
• Blind, Falcao, di Maria are part of the new comers to United. IF they gel, they win today. As with Moyes last season, the inevitable United win will arrive, and it seems so today.

man Utd

• LDD ( L=Loss, D=Draw) this season.This is part of a run of 4 matches without a win in the Premiership.
• It used to be that United did not have consecutive defeats at home but that occured twice last season. Surely not again this season?

QPR

• had a dire 2013 in the Premiership.So far this season, QPR have lost 2 matches to Hull and Spurs and beat Sunderland 1-0
• only 2 away wins in the Premiership last time QPR were there.

profitable in-play opportunities

• Match Odds - all instincts tell us to lay Manchester United at odds on during this transitional stage, but this represents an ideal opportunity for them to record their first win of the season ( famous last words) and that should be the angle into this match should 'Arry do a number on them again!

4pm - Maritimo v Penafiel  - 1.62 home
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Profitable in-play opportunities






4pm - Skonto Riga v Metalurgs Liepaja  - 1.38 home

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Profitable in-play opportunities






14 Sep 16:00 UK Valencia   v   Espanyol  - 1.61 home
Standout stats

• both teams have scored in 5 of the last 6 head to heads .
• valencia have scored 2 goals in the last 3 home head to heads and remain unbeaten

Valencia

• 1-1 draw and 3-0 win for valencia this season 
• only 3 defeats in their last 14 home matches straddling last season
• the most recent Valencia wins at home have seen them score at least 2 goals.

Espanyol

• A draw ( 90th minute Espanyol equaliser) and a 1-2 loss at home to Sevilla so far this season. This continues a terrible la Liga run of 10 matches without a win, and 3 draws in those matches.
• only 3 wins in their last 18 away matches

profitable in-play opportunities

• Espanyol are in very very poor form away from home , straddling last season and this and are unlikely to land a blow today. 
• match Odds - If Espanyol happen to score first, I think we can back Valencia to equalise and score 2+ goals again as they tend to in their wins.
• as with Seria A, we are still very early in the season. Research will be fuller once we have some matches under our belts.

415pm - Atromitos v Panaitolikos  - 1.6 home
Standout stats

Profitable in-play opportunities






430pm - FC Viikingit v FC Jazz  - 1.56 away
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Profitable in-play opportunities






430pm - RoPS v Honka  - 1.66 home

Standout stats

Profitable in-play opportunities






14 Sep 16:30 UK Djurgarden   v   Atvidaberg  - 1.55 home
Standout stats

• Atvitaberg are unbeaten at home in head to heads. There have only been 2 head to heads at Djurgarden, a draw and a win
• Both teams have scored in 7 of their last 8 head to heads
• This is the Swedish Allsvenskan between 7th and 10th

Djurgarden

• scored in their last 5 at home and last 12 overall
• 3 consecutive  match wins to nil
• losses at home have come v the top 4 ( 2 losses)

Atvitabergs

• only 1 away win was v 12th , a 0-1.
• only 3 wins in 11 matches
• only 1 clean sheet in 11 matches came in their last match.
• have never led at halftime away from home

profitable in-play opportunities

• Match Odds - home side favoured in head to heads. Will that continue today. If atvitabergs score first, Djurgarden should be able to reply. They have scored in their last 12 matches and Atvitabergs kept only 1 clean sheet in 11 matches
• Halftime. If Atvitabergs score first in the first half, lay them in the halftime market
• Both teams to score - well the head to heads point to it, Djurgarden are expected to score and keep their end of the bargain , it is Atvitabergs for whom there is a question mark.

14 Sep 16:00 UK FK Krasnodar   v   Fc Ufa  - 1.44 home
Standout stats

• this is the Russian Premier League and is 6 matches old.
• Ufa I think are newly promoted

Krasnador

• only 1 loss this season came last match against Dinamo Moscow.
• 4 clean sheets in 6 league matches this season
• only 2 home matches, a 4-0 win and 0-2 loss. Will they really lose a 2nd consecutive home match?

Ufa

• only 1 win this season, a 0-1 away win v Amkar Perm
• 3 of 4 defeats this season saw them fail to score.
• only 1 clean sheet

profitable in-play opportunities

• a very small sample. The market suggests struggles for newly promoted Ufa who have kept only 1 clean sheet. Favour the home side therefore . 
• Krasnador could win to nil, 4 clean sheets in 6 suggests some defensive strengths 

14 Sep 16:30 UK Rovaniemi   v   Honka  - 1.65 home
Standout stats

profitable in-play opportunities






14 Sep 17:00 UK Gent   v   Mouscron - 1.7 home
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profitable in-play opportunities



5pm - Bryne v Alta  - 1.58 home
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Profitable in-play opportunities






5pm - Fredrikstad v Strommen  - 1.51 home
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Profitable in-play opportunities






5pm - Litex Lovech v Haskovo  - 1.11 home
Standout stats

• this is the Bulgarian A PFG league and is only 7 matches old
• There are no head to heads

Litex Lovech

• 4 wins and a 3-3 draw in their last 5 matches , scoring 2 or 3 goals in each match
• 3 consecutive wins to nil now
• 3 consecutive home wins, scoring 3-2-2

Haskovo

• only 1 win this season and it seems Haskovo are newly promoted but struggling. 5 losses and a 0-0 in their last 6 matches.
• have failed to score in 3 of their last 4 matches
• 3 away losses, the last 2 saw 3 and 4 goals conceded to nil ( which fits into the Litex Lovech quote of 1.11 today doesn't it?)

Profitable in-play opportunities

• Haskovo seem out of their depth , albeit early on in this higher league. Their recent 2 away losses were 3-0 and 4-0, and as I keep harping on, 1.11 shots tend to score 3/4 and possibly win to nil. Let that be your angle in today.
• Halftime? -Litex Lovech are expected to score at least a goal. Lay the 0-0 halftime score if it's 0-0 for a part of the 1st half.
• Correct score  -3-0, 4-0 for starters

5pm - Mjondalen v Tromsdalen  - 1.26 home
Standout stats

Profitable in-play opportunities







14 Sep 17:00 UK Guimaraes   v   Porto  - 1.57 away
Standout stats

• 5 wins and a 2-2 draw in head to heads, the wins for Porto
• Porto wins tend to be to nil. Porto were 0-2 up at halftime against Guimaraes last time out ended 2-2

Guimaraes

• unbeaten in 5 league matches and this season, 3 consecutive wins 1-3, 3-0, 3-0 - good form, but a feeling the Portos, Benficas etc are a level higher. 5 1-0 defeats against the top 3 last season so it could be a tight one today

Porto

• 4 wins this season, without conceding. 1-0, 1-0, 2-0, 3-0 
• 0-1 the sole away win so far this season

profitable in-play opportunities

• Guimaraes should be a struggle for Porto if last season is anything to go by.
• Match odds - Porto could keep a clean sheet so any goal by Guimaraes should lead to us laying guimaraes if the odds are short enough . I expect Porto to prevail in a tight match
• Correct Score - 0-1 and 0-2 has potential if Porto can keep clean sheets 

14 Sep 17:15 UK Atromitos   v   Panaitolikos  - 1.57 home
Standout stats

profitable in-play opportunities

515pm - Betis v Albacete  - 1.54 home
Standout stats

• these 2 last met in 2011
• This is the Spanish Segunda Division and is only 3 matches old.

Betis

• newly relegated and finding this league easier. 2 wins and a loss so far sees both sides scoring.
• 2-3, 2-1, 4-1 loss so far this season
• no draw in 25 matches, albeit straddling their Primera Liga season last season

Albacete

•  Loss, Draw, Draw so far this season and again both sides scoring.
• it looks as if Albacete are newly promoted as they were last in the Segunda division in 2011

Profitable in-play opportunities

• Match odds - the market expects recent Primera betis to dominate today.
• Both teams to score - please note it is a very small sample of 3 matches only but both sides have a 100% record
• Will Betis continue to score 2+ goals?

14 Sep 18:00 UK Molde   v   Lillestrom  - 1.33 home
Standout stats

• This is the Norwegian Eliteserien, 22 matches in, between 1st and 4th 
• Lillestrom did the double in 2013, Molde won the 2014 league encounter 1-2 away

Molde

• one of the inform teams in Europe
• no defeat in 20 matches and have scored in their last 22 matches
• 7 wins in their last 9 matches
• 3 consecutive clean sheets
• unbeaten at home and have only failed to score 2+ goals in 1 home match
• both teams score in 55% of all matches, so 50/50
• only 1 0-0 at halftime at home
• have scored 16 goals at home in each half

Lillestrom

• no defeat in 8 matches
• have won 4 of their last 5.
• 3 clean sheets in their last 4 matches
• only 3 away wins though and 5 draws
• did beat 2nd away 0-2
• 6 0-0's at halftime away

profitable in-play opportunities

• match Odds - Molde to continue their unbeaten run? Then lay Lillestrom if Lillestrom score first.
• Halftime/score - incongruous so I will leave it alone. If going by Molde alone, then I'd say , yes, there'd be a goal before halftime, but Lillestrom have had 6 0-0's at halftime away
• Correct score - back 0-0 pre mtch as a highly speculative punt based on the clean sheets of both sides in their most recent matches. It would be a bet to nothing, as Molde have scored 32 home goals.

6pm - Thor v Hafnarfjordur ( FH)  - 1.33 away
Standout stats

• This is the Icelandic Urvalsdelid between 12th and 1st after 17 matches
• 3 wins for FH in league head to heads ended with a 1-1 draw last league match
• 1-0 and 1-1 the last 2 head to heads is tighter than a 1.33 quote would suggest]

Thor

• only 2 wins all season came at home v 3rd and 6th
• no win in 7. Have lost their last 6 matches
• only 2 clean sheets this season
• 33% over 2.5 goals at home -this might not be a spanking!
• 
  

14 Sep 18:00 UK Sevilla   v   Getafe  - 1.44 home
Standout stats

• Sevilla have won the last 3 home head to heads. Enough to keep faith with them?
• The last 3 head to heads, were win, loss, draw.

Sevilla

• Draw and win this season, 1-1 at home to valencia and 1-2 win away to Espanyol
• only 3 defeats in 19 home matches and no defeat in 9 home matches

Getafe

• 3-1 loss away to Celta and 1-0 win v Almeris so far this season
• only 2 wins in 14 away matches in the league from the back end of last season.

profitable in-play opportunities

• Little to go on from this season. Head to heads point to Sevilla not losing. Poor away form suggests Getafe may not land a blow.  Sparce research for La Liga and Seria A this early on.

615pm - Levski Sofia v Slavia Sofia  - 1.44 home

8pm - Internacional v Botafogo RJ  - 1.55 home