- 1st v 11th in the world. Nishikori has been knocking on the top 10 door
- a walkover for Novak the last time these 2 met in 2014. The previous 2 head to heads came in 2010 ( Novak won on clay) and 2011 ( Nishikori won on hard).
Djokovic
- Final, 3rd, 3rd round on all surfaces. Obviously a dip after he won Wimbledon.
- Final, 3rd, 3rd round on hard court surfaces.
- So far this US Open it's been 3-0, 3-0, 3-0., 3-0 , 3-1 . I read the last match right against Murray as regards Djokovic dropping a set. The last 2 rounds have seen tighter sets. 7-5, and last match 2 7-6 tie breakers.
Nishikori
- 1st round, Semi, 4th round, quarter final on all surfaces prior to this US Open. Reasonable form.
- Final, 2nd, round, 3rd round, Semi final, on hard courts. In the Sony Open tennis on hard court, he impressively beat a whole ream of top tenners in Ferrer and Federer as well as bright young thing Dimitrov. this is eyecatching form for the Jap.
- 3-0, 2-0, 3-0, 3-2, 3-2 so far this US Open. Obviously the deeper Nishikori gets, the tighter the matches. He has beaten another pair of top 10 players in Raonic and Wawrinka so has a real solid form line as regards top 10 players ( but are top 3 just a step too far? - that said he did beat Federer on hard this year).
- In those 2 matches with the 2 top 10 players last rounds, there were 2 7-5 set matches, and 4 7-6 tiebreak sets.
- It seems progress has been simply down to winning key points in tie breakers.
Conclusion
- This looks like Djokovic's toughest assignment to date. He is playing an opponent with proven capabilities for beating top 10 players, and the odd top 3 player.
- I will lay Djokovic therefore in the 3-0 set betting market if he wins the first set. I can see a tie breaker or 2 here of Nishikori is on his game
- Nishikori's 2 3-2 set wins suggest this is the likeliest best case scenario for him today, so lay him to win 3-1 sets if he wins any of the first 2 sets.
730pm - Cilic v Federer - 1.3 Federer. I will copy and paste what I wrote in my eletter yesterday which was a look at tennis research.
Here’s how
I use the stats here and how you can too to profit.
1) The odds.
Note the odds . Let’s look at one of today’s matches.
Marin Cilic
plays Roger Federer this weekend . Roger Federer is the favourite at odds of
1.33. It’s important to note the favourite. The idea is to gather evidence as
to whether the favourite’s odds are justified or not.
2) The rankings. The rankings are important. The closer the
rankings, the closer the match could be. In this match, Marin Cilic is ranked
16th in the world, and Roger Federer 3rd.
3) Head to heads.
Head to heads are key as they can determine whether the underdog has a chance
today , and whether the underdog has a history of winning at least one set
against today’s opponent.
In today’s
match, Roger Federer has won the last 5 head to heads. It looks rather clear
cut then doesn’t it?
Look also
at head to heads on today’s surface. For example, The US Open is a hard court
tennis tournament. Therefore we need a focus on hard court head to heads. Roger
Federer has won the last 3 hard court head to heads 3-1, 2-0, 2-1. What do you
see here? You see an ability for Marin Cilic to win a set! This is important.
Also note the most recent match between these 2 players, the sets were 7-6,
6-7, 6-4. I think tie breakers are important to note ( a tie breaker is a 7-6
set) as it signals parity between the 2 players. These sets are largely won by
the player who wins the Key point or points only, and a slice of luck.
4) Recent form for each player on a) all surfaces and b) today’s surface (
hard court). Let’s
look at Marin Cilic. Here is how I write down his recent form. I write it down
by the round he got to in his most recent tournaments. So, Marin has reached 3rd,
3rd in his 2 tournaments prior to the US Open.
As to Roger
Federer, he as reached Final, Final, Final, Final, in his 4 Tournaments prior
to this US Open. Now that is emphatic isn’t it.?
On to
today’s surface, hard courts if you’ll remember. Betfair’s tennis stats enable
you to show form by surface.
Let’s look
at Marin Cilic on hard courts.
3rd,
3rd round and now the quarter finals of the US open.
As to Roger
Federer, well he has reached the Quarter, Quarter, Final and now the Quarter
Final of the US Open.
5) Make note of any dropped sets. A dropped set scoreline will be something like
2-1, 3-1 or a derivative thereof. This is important because the Set Betting
market can often be exploited with tennis trading , as well as the more
traditional Match Odds market ( Will Cilic or Federer win?)
Cilic has
dropped at least one set in 6 of his last 11 matches on hard courts.
As to
Federer, well he has dropped a set in 5
of his last 12 Hard court matches
6) Form so far in this tournament. We want to see how the players have reached
this stage. Look out for a) dropped sets, b) 7-6 tiebreaker sets c) an ability
to fight back after losing a set.
2-0, 3-0,
3-1, 3-2, 3-0 wins for Cilic this US Open. He has dropped at least a set in 2
of his last 3 matches. He has had at least one 7-6 tiebreaker set in 3 of his
last 4 US Open matches, including beating Tomas Berdych last round in a last
set tiebreaker.
3-0, 3-0,
3-1, 3-0, 3-2 wins for Roger Federer this US Open. Federer shows “ an ability
to fight back after losing a set” coming
back from 0-2 against Gael Monfils.
The last
piece of the jigsaw is to anticipate what might happen in this match. What do
you think will happen from the evidence presented?
From Marin
Cilic’s perspective, it seems like he can take at least one set from Roger
Federer as he has done in 2 of his last 3 meetings with Federer on hard court
surfaces. How can we profit from this?
If we use a betting exchange, then we can lay Roger Federer to win 3-0 .
If Roger
Federer wins the first set, we can lay him to win 3-0 sets at far shorter odds
than the 2.96 currently available. Why? The market has shortened the odds once
Federer wins the first set.
If Marin
Cilic wins the first set, it looks as if he will not win 3-0. His odds for 3-0
after winning the first set may be shorter than the current 18.5 but perhaps
still too short to lay comfortably. You could back Roger Federer to win 3-1 at
hopefully better odds than the current 3.65.
With Roger
Federer’s ability to have beaten Gael Monfils after losing the first 2 sets, we
can have a degree of confidence should Federer lose the first 2 sets in this
match. We could back him at much higher odds than they are currently.
Williams v Wozniaki - 1.23 Williams
- 1st v 11th. After ditching Rory McIlroy, ( I am available Caroline by the way), Wozniaki has re-found herself and seems in the ascendency. She is 11th now and has been in the wilderness during the Rory years.
- 8 wins for Mike Tyson's twin brother in head to heads and only a single Wozniaki win on hard courts in Miami in 2012
- hard court head to heads are interesting, 2-1, 1-1 ( retired), 2-0, 2-0 ( Woz), 2-0, 2-1, 2-1. A real ability for Wozniaki to take a set off Williams. And in the last 2 hard court meetings, Wozniaki took the first set before losing the next 2.
Williams
- Final, Semi final, Final in tournaments prior to this one sees Williams in superb form.
- 10 of his last 11 wins were 2-0 set wins so rock solid.
- Final, Final, Semi, Final in the last 4 hard court tournaments.
- This US Open saw 6 consecutive 2-0 set wins and the worst her opponent could land was 3 games in a single set.
Wozniaki
- Final, Quarter, Semi recently sees a resurgent Woz stopped in her last 2 tournaments by Williams in 1-2 set losses, Woz winning the first set.
- Final, Quarter, Semi , 2nd round in hard court tournaments .
- This US Open saw 2-1, 2-0, 2-0, 2-1, 2-0, 2-0 . Peng retired in the last round, and Peng has been a tough old cookie to beat. So we could argue Caroline is a little lucky here at 1 set up and 4-3 in the 2nd .
Conclusion
- If the odds are short enough, lay Williams to win 2-0 sets, better still if she wins the first set . Wozniaki has a history very recently for taking the first set. If that continues today, then lay Wozniaki 2-0 set betting.
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