Tuesday, 29 October 2013

10am - Dinamo Tbilisi v FC Kolkheti Khobi . The home side are about 1.06 in what is a very illiquid betting market as I write. This Georgian Cup match makes limited appeal.
This seems to be a 2 legged cup match where Tblisi won 9-0 initially.

12pm - Shakhtar Sverdlovsk v Dinamo Kiev  Dinamo Kiev are 1.06 away from home

Standout stats


  • No draws for Dinamo Kiev in the Cup. 
  • Dinamo Kiev have not scored more than 3 goals away in the Cup.
  • Only 1 draw for Shakhtar in their Cup matches . Note they only lost 0-2 to Shaktar Donetsk, the other Ukrainian powerhouses.
Profitable in play opportunities.

  • Shaktar Donetsk were priced at 1.03 yesterday and they won 0-3 only and it was 0-0 just before halftime. Perhaps the mauling the odds suggest won't oblige?
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2pm - Tyumen v Zenit St Petersburg - a russian cup match should not, I suppose, be prioritised. As one of the teams is familar Zenit, let's take a look. Zenit are 1.24 shots today.

Standout Stats

  • The first thing that grabs my attention is the 3-0 loss to CSKA for Tyumen in the Cup. It is tough to evaluate their other performances as the teams were lower league teams.
  • Zenit's only recent defeats in the cup have been 0-2 at home to CSKA, 0-1 at home to Dinamo Moscow, and 0-1 at home to an Anzhi side when the latter had money!
  • Zenit have had a tendency to level out their cup goal scoring to a maximum of 3 goals.
Profitable in play opportunities.

  • Team news particularly for Zenit is very important as quite clearly they are the dominant force here. They came from behind in the league to win at the weekend, and we can only hope they do the same this evening to furnish us with a DRT.
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230pm - Salyut v Dinamo Moscow - This is another Russian Cup match featuring an FNL side v a Premier League side. Of course the Premier League side are 1.19 to win this match.


Standout Stats

  • Dinamo seem to enjoy a good winning run when not playing other premier league sides in the cup. They have an ability to score 2 goals at least against none top flight opponents in the cup. 
  • Since 2011 in the Cup, Dinamo have lost to Rostov, 1-2, won, drawn against Anzhi ( won in extra time), beat Zenit away, and had 3 wins,  a 0-1 loss to Rubin and a 0-0 draw with Anzhi which they lost 1-0 in extra time.
  • Salyut have not played a Premier League side in the Cup for a while. They have scored and conceded in their last 4 Cup matches.


Profitable in play opportunities


  • The Russian Cup does not fall under 'matches to trust'. It seems the away side, if playing any semblance of a first team, will be able to score at least 2 goals today. 
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From the Russian Cup to the Turkish Cup. Sivasspor showed yesterday that a 1.41 shot cannot necessarily be relied upon, as they conceded first and drew late on. Well we have another 1.4 home shot today in Bucaspor 

4pm - Bucaspor v Aydinspor 


Standout Stats

  • Bucaspor have not had a draw in 18 matches in all competitions and are certainly priced today to continue that run.
  • Bucaspor are a 1st division side as opposed to Turkish top flight. They have lost their last 2 matches 2-0.
  • Bucaspor have kept 3 clean sheets in their last 4 matches in all competitions at home.
  • It seems that Bucaspor are not 'up for the cup', losing 5, drawing 1 and winning 1 ( 1-0) of their last 7 matches.
  • Bucaspor have not drawn any of their home cup matches yet.They have scored in their last 6 cup matches.
  • Aydinspor are a league below Bucaspor. Aydinspor have a short cup history. 

Profitable in play opportunities


  • Would you trust a league 1 Turkish side who seem to enjoy flunking their cup matches, against a league 2 Turkish side we know nothing about? no, me neither. let's move on.


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    5pm - Germany (W) v Croatia (W) - unbackable


    No research necessary. The last time German ladies were unbackable, they scored 13 goals. A win to nil and a nice speculative total , will give you a nice value interest in this match. 7-0. 9-0 perhaps?

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    545pm - PSV v Roda JC - the weekend showed a totally unreliable side to these major Dutch sides. Yesterday shows Ajax and Utrecht getting in an initial pickle at heavily short odds. PSV are 1.31 shots today to prevail in this Cup match.


    Standout Stats

    • PSV have drawn and lost the last 2 league meetings with Roda, which really makes that 1.31 highly opposable doesn't it? It could even signal a lay of PSV if they score first, at even shorter odds.

    Profitable in play opportunities.



      6pm - AZ Alkmaar v Achilles 29 - 1.13 home


      Standout Stats


      Profitable in play opportunities.



        6pm - KSV Superfund v Red Bull Salzburg - 1.25 away


        Standout Stats


        Profitable in play opportunities.



          6pm - Steaua Bucharest v ACS Poli Timisoara - 1.32 home


          Standout Stats


          Profitable in play opportunities.

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          630pm - Fokikos v Olympiakos 

          Fokikos are 11th in the Football league, Olympiakos are top of the Super league, hence their 1.08 quote tonight. 


          Standout Stats

          • This is a Cup match.
          • Only 2 wins for Fokikos in 90 minutes in their last 18 matches is perhaps not ideal preparation against Olympiakos.
          • No 90 minute wins in the Cup for Fokikos.
          • 5-2-3-6-4-1-5 the total goals scored by Olympiakos in their most recent matches in all competitions. They scored 1 against Benfica.
          • Olympiakos seem to take this cup seriously with 9 wins and an extra time win in their last 10 matches. 
          Profitable in play opportunities.

          • This looks rather straightforward and it seems this is a 2 legged affair with Fokikos losing 5-1 already to oly. This must question Olympiakos's motivation for this 2nd leg?
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          7pm - Groningen v Capelle - 1.06 home

          See all other Dutch League Cup matches today. Quite simply keep an eye on the match via www.futbol24.com and then wait for an apparent surprise and pounce. Apparent surprises can include

          • no goals scored in the first 1/2 hour of the match. A 1.06 shot must surely be able to score.
          • A concerted period of 0-0 1.06 shots should not be having 0-0 matches.
          • Capelle to score first. They should not win.




          7pm - Valencia v Almeria 
          Inconsistency seems to be the watch word with strong 1.46 favourites Valencia. The short price is deserving of DRT interest, and as this is a league match, we can be assured of 100% motivation for both teams as compared with a  League cup equalivalent match.


          Standout Stats

          • 5 consecutive wins in the league for valencia in head to heads saw them scoring between 2 and 3 goals on each occasion. They have beaten Almeria at home on the last 3 occasions Almeria visited.
          • Valencia have had only 1 draw this season.
          • Win, loss, win , win, loss at home this season for Valencia.2 of their wins were 1-0, 
          • Valencia are playing bottom side tonight at home. Their home defeats were against 1st and 9th. They beat 15th and 17th 1-0. Will tonight's match have a similar air?
          • There is no problem with Valencia infront of goal. They have scored in all matches this season. 
          • Neither team has had a 0-0 full time scoreline.
          • Almeria are yet to win a match this season and Valencia must win this match .
          • A draw and 4 defeats away for Almeria.They have conceded between 2 and 4 in away matches.
          • Almeria managed to score 2 against Atl Madrid. Do we take anything from this other than Atl Madrid perhaps taking their foot off the pedal?
          • Today's match features a team who have scored in all matches this season against a team who have conceded in all matches this season.
          • Almeria have failed to score in 4 of their last 5 matches. 
          • Almeria have only scored 1 goal in the 2nd half in away matches, conceding 8.

          Profitable in play opportunities


          • Valencia should score at least a goal at some stage. Bear that in mind if this match is 0-0 for a while ( and given that 3 of Valencia's 4 wins this season have been 1-0, 0-0 is not out of the question for a while).
          • Neither team has had a 0-0 this season. If it's 0-0 in the 89th minute, lay it.
          • There is a feeling that Almeria could concede at least 2 goals today. This might suggest a 2-0 correct score for the ultra speculative.
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          7pm - Vitesse v Noordwijk -This is another apparent mismatch as Vitesse in the Eredivisie are priced at 1.06 to beat Topklasse team Noordwijk

          Standout Stats

          • Vitesse have not drawn any of their last 8 Cup matches, losing only to Ajax and Heerenveen
          • Vitesse have an ability to score 3+ goals regularly in the Cup.
          • Noordwijk lost only 1-3 to Ajax in the Cup in September 2011. They might not get spanked.
          Profitable in play opportunities


          • As with all of these matches, play it by ear. A concerted 0-0 of a concession of a goal by Vitesse should trigger some involvement if the markets consent to be liquid.
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          730pm - Genk v KV Kortrijk .
          League matches should take priority over Cup matches. Here we have 1.58 shots Genk, who have scored 2 and drawn, won, won, in their home head to heads against KV


          Standout Stats

          • genk have had 4 wins and a solitary loss at home ( to top side Standard) . 4 of those wins were to nil, the only exception was against Zulte.
          • Genk have had 4 clean sheets in their last 5 matches, so 'build from the back.'
          • Genk have had 6 wins and 2 away draws in their last 8 matches. 
          • There has only been 1 0-0 scoreline in these 2 teams' matches this season. 
          • Kortrijk are inconsistent, losing away to 1st and 4th but then beating Anderlecht in 5th 1-0 away from home, and beaten 4rd placed Club Brugge 4-1.
          • Kortijk are on a 4 match winning streak with 2 of those matches being 1-0 away matches.
          • Genk have failed to score in only 2 matches this season and Kortrijk have failed to score in only 3 matches this season. 
          • Kortrijk have only had one away match where both teams scored.
          Profitable in play opportunities


          • Genk are consistent winners and scorers historically. Genk's 4 wins to nil are impressive at home. Will that ensure they score first? 
          • These 2 teams are unlikely to serve up a 0-0. 
          • Kortirjk's inconsistency is always a worry for Football traders. We want readable teams. They have won their last 2 away matches 0-1 , including against Anderlecht.
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          730pm - Lokeren v Lierse - Both teams have scored and conceded in their last 2 meetings, ending in score draws.
          With Lokeren priced at 1.45 today, a score draw is not expected from this Belgian League match

          Standout Stats

          • The strongest stat by far is Lierse's inability to win away. They have lost away to all of the top 8 this season and are playing 7th in the league
          • Lokeren have scored in all matches this season, and have only failed to score 2 minimum in only 1 home match.
          • Lokeren have beaten 11th 3-0, 14th 1-0 and 16th 2-1 and are playing 12th at home today.
          • Lokeren's recent poor run coincided with matches against top 10 sides. Their recent win was against 2nd bottom Beveren
          • Over 2.5 goals is the prevailing trend for Lokeren this season.
          • Lokeren have not had a 0-0 this season, Lierse have had a single 0-0 this season.
          • Lierse have failed to score in 3 of their last 4 away matches and in 3 of their last 4 matches overall
          • Lierse's 2 recent wins came at home. 
          • Lierse have not had a draw away this season.

          Profitable in play opportunities


          • Lokeren tend to beat bottom teams at home, and Lierse tend to lose away to top sides. It seems straightforward.
          • Lokeren could score 2 against as they have in home matches, 
          • Lierse's recent run of failing to score could lead to a possible speculative bet on a correct score win to nil for Lokeren.
          • No away draws for Lierse - will they avoid another?
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          730pm - Morton v St Johnstone - 1.61 away


          Standout Stats


          Profitable in play opportunities.
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          730pm - Oostende v Anderlecht . This is a league match between 14th and 5th. Very rarely do you see 1.52 shots Anderlecht other than top of the league.


          Standout Stats

          • These 2 sides have not met since 2005 so head to heads are irrelevant.
          • Oostende have only had 1 win at home, a 1-0 v Charleroi. 
          • 1st and 3rd in the league scored 4 and 2 against Oostende. Consider that Anderlecht with a win will be on 25 points, and that there are 3 teams on 26 points above then, then we can assume that Anderlecht can replicate those top teams?
          • Oostende's only 2 wins of the season came in their last 4 matches, and were wins to nil.Those were the only 2 clean sheets 
          • No 0-0 full time scorelines in these 2 teams' matches this season.
          • No draw away for Anderlecht this season saw 3 wins and 2 draws. Anderlecht's 3 wins came away to 11th and lower , and they are playing 14th today. The 3 wins were also to nil.
          • Anderlecht have exclusively lost to top 7 this season and won to nil against all bar one of the rest.

          Profitable in play opportunities


          • Looking at the form of these 2 sides and we note no draw for Anderlecht this season, and a strong run of wins, predominantly to nil, against lower sides. Oostende tend to concede 2+ against top sides, Anderlecht tend to score 2+ against lower sides
          • This match should not end 0-0. If by some miracle, Oostende perhaps put Pat Butcher in goal, they could have a 0-0 for a while. This will be exploitable in play.
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          745pm - AC Milan v Lazio - 1.81 home


          Standout Stats

          • 4-4-2-5-3 goals in total in head to heads between these 2.
          • AC Milan are an excellent DRT team as we saw when we layed Parma at the weekend 2-0 up.
          • Win, Loss, Win, Win for AC Milan this season at home. Their last 2 home matches are in stark contrast with head to heads, 2 1-0 wins . 
          • 3 of Milan's last 4 defeats have come away from home. 
          • AC Milan have scored in all matches this season.
          • Milan have lost exclusively against top 8 sides this season. Which nearly mirrors Lazio who have lost to 1st, 3rd, and 9th away this season. 
          • Lazio have conceded 2 minimum away this season. 
          • There has only been 1 0-0 in all matches this season played by these 2 teams. 
          Profitable in play opportunities

          • Goals expected in this match ? Anything else, then get involved. There is unlikely to be a 0-0 in this match. 
          • What do we make of the 2 consecutive 1-0 wins at home for AC Milan, rather against their usual trend for goals scored and conceded
          • It is important to note that these to have lost exclusively against top 9 teams. Well Milan are 10th and Lazio are 7th.
          • Will Lazio continue to concede 2 goals away from home?

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          745pm - Cagliari v Bologna - 1.83 home


          Standout Stats


          Profitable in play opportunities.
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          745pm - Feyenoord v Hoek . We have another apparent giants v minnows match as 1.07 shots Feyenoord take on Hoek in the Dutch Cup. Last night saw some great bets in the Netherlands, including laying Kozzaken boys when they took the lead against 1-14 shots Utrecht, and backing over 1.5 goals in the first half, when Ajax were already ahead! Somebody took a spanking there.



          Standout Stats

          • A draw and a loss in their last 2 for Feyenoord. They would like this to end tonight. A winless sequence is unwelcome at any club.
          • Feyenoord have scored a maximum of 4 goals in their Cup exploits so base correct score bets around that scoreline.
          • Feyenoord's only 2013 Cup match at home saw a comfortable 3-0 win against Dordrecht.
          • Hoek are a Hofklasse league side, whose exploits in the cup feature a Loss, Draw ( loss extra time), loss, loss, Draw ( win extra time), and 3-0 win against HBS. 
          • Hoek are yet to play Eredivisie sides in the Cup.
          Profitable in play opportunities.


          • This is another match where a cursory glance will be kept on the scoreline , especially with Ajax's early struggles at odds of 1.02 last night, and Utrecht failing to win at odds of 1.14. 
          • Look for a long period of 0-0, and lay the 0-0 if possible. 
          • If the match is 0-0 for a long time in the first half, consider laying the 0-0 Halftime score as late as you can.
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          745pm - Fiorentina v Napoli

          Fiorentina are 2.68 favourites for this match, featuring 2 in form sides with great attacking threats.


          Standout Stats

          • With 3 draws, Napoli winning 2, and another draw, this match is very much up in the air.
          • Do note the managerial and personnel changes at Napoli may negate head to heads.
          • Both teams have had only 1 defeat this season.
          • Win, Draw, Draw, Win for Fiorentina at home this season, scoring and conceding in all home matches. Fiorentina have in fact scored and conceded in all bar 2 matches this season.
          • A recent home win against Juventus for Fiorentina really caught the eye.
          • Fiorentina are meeting a top 2 team for the first time this season. 
          • Watch out for Fiorentina at home in the last 1/2 hour of matches where they have scored 7 goals.
          • Napoli's sole defeat this season was against Roma , the top team currently.
          • Napoli had 3 away wins before that defeat to Roma.
          • Napoli have kept 3 clean sheets in their last 4 matches. 
          • Both sides have failed to score in only 1 match all season
          • Napoli are very definitely a side to lay the 0-0 Halftime score. 2-4-0-1-2-2-2-1-2 scored before halftime in all of their matches this season.
          • In contrast to Fiorentina, Napoli do the majority of their away scoring in the first 1/2 hour .
          • There has been only 1 0-0 scoreline the whole season when these 2 teams have played.

          Profitable in play opportunities.


          • The odds relay everything you need to know about this match. I feel this is a "best team on the day" match.It is not necessarily a DRT match because of these odds. There is no red hot favourite
          • From a statistical perspective, laying 0-0 before halftime will be a positive based solely on Napoli, but bear in mind that they have only played one of the current top 7 this season.
          • Napoli's clean sheets could ensure a tight early first half.
          • Fiorentina have scored and conceded in all home matches this season. With Rossi on one side, and Higuan on the other, this could continue.
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          745pm - Genoa v Parma - 2.6 home


          Standout Stats


          Profitable in play opportunities.
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          745pm - Juventus v Catania - 1.19 home


          Standout Stats

          • Draw, Win, Win at home for Juve in head to heads A degree of caution in recent head to heads with a couple of 1-0's
          • Juve have only dropped points to currently well in form teams in Inter and Fiorentina , both away from home.
          • Juve have scored 2 goals in 5 of their last 6 matches.
          • 4 consecutive home wins have seen Juve score 4-2-3-2. 
          • No draw in 6 matches for Juve. 
          • 7 home goals scored by Juve in the first half. 
          • Catania have only 1 win this season, at home. 
          • 4 losses away for Catania have seen them score in 3 of them. 
          • Catania has not scored an away goal in the 2nd half 

          Profitable in play opportunities

          • Juve are likely to continue scoring , and perhaps 2 are within their grasp again. 
          • Catania more often than not concede in defeat. 
          • Juve would seem to be the first goal scorers here .
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          745pm - Newcastle v Man City - 1.75 away


          Standout Stats


          Profitable in play opportunities.


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          745pm - Tottenham v Hull  - we saw with Zalgaris playing the same team recently ( 3 consecutive matches), and now Tottenham and Hull meet again.
          Standout Stats

          • We'll look at the stats with more of a focus towards the cup. We already know the clean sheets Spurs collect - 12 clean sheets in their last 15 matches.
          • The last meeting was a 1-0 win for Spurs against Hull.
          • The Spurs goal was an 80th minute penalty which infers Hull are tough to beat .
          • Not the best record in the League cup for Spurs. Loss, Draw ( loss extra time), Draw ( loss penalties), Win, Loss, Win in recent matches. 
          • Hull have not won any of their last 3 matches. Loss, Loss, Loss, Draw ( win pens), Loss, Draw ( win extra time), Win in their recent League Cup matches. Yes they could take it to extra time, but they do not seem to be able to win in 90 minutes.
          • Hull have not won their last 4 away League cup matches in 90 minutes.

          Profitable in play opportunities

          • Another clean sheet for Spurs? It will be reliant largely on team news although to be fair Spurs still seem very strong defensively in this Cup. 
          • Hull seem unable to win in 90 minutes in the League Cup, so lay them if they lead.
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          745pm - Wigan v QPR - 2.7 home


          Standout Stats


          Profitable in play opportunities.

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            755pm - Reims v Monaco - 1.85 away


            Standout Stats


            Profitable in play opportunities.

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              9pm - Osasuna v Rayo Vallecano - 2.1 home


              Standout Stats


              Profitable in play opportunities.

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                9pm - Real Madrid v Sevilla  - this is a La Liga match and Ream MAdrid are 1.22 shots to win this.



                Standout Stats

                • This has generally been a goal fest for Real Madrid, scoring 6-6-3-0-4 in recent head to heads. 2-3-4 scored in home head to heads.
                • Real have only lost to Atl Madrid at home this season. Against the rest 2 minimum scored at home. 
                • Real have only dropped points against top 4 sides so far. 
                • Real have kept only 2 clean sheets all season.
                • No win away for Sevilla yet this season. They lost 3-2 to Barcelona away so are capable of scoring against the big guns.
                • Sevilla have only failed to score and concede in 1 match this season. Over 2.5 goals naturally dominates Sevilla matches.
                • Real at home are vulnerable to conceding in the first 15 minutes only. Sevilla are vulnerable to conceding in the last 1/2 hour away from home.
                • Real have had 3 1/2 time 0-0's in their last 5 matches and Sevilla have had only 2 0-0's before halftime 

                Profitable in play opportunities.

                • Both teams to score seems an obvious starting point and if this comes to fruition then over 2.5 goals will come in for traders.
                • Real Madrid like playing and scoring against Sevilla so expect 2 goals minimum.
                • If Sevilla score first, expect an eventual response from Sevilla.
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