29/10

Unappealing football yesterday. Kuban scored 2 against Anzhi to continue their great scoring record against team around Anzhi's in the league. Both teams did not score alas.
Dinamo Bucharest continued their goalscoring too at home in a match with no DRT trades.
This is what you get in matches you tend to avoid! Panatalikos 4 Kallonis 0 in a match I had read as a 0-0 or 1-0.
Stick with Olympiakos I think!!
Maccabi Tel Aviv were utterly dominant, going 3-0 up in no time, with a final score 4-1.
There was a hint in the Profitable In play opportunities , that Brighton would score as would Watford. Watford scored first after 4 minutes in a match which ended 1-1 and had litle appeal to me as a betting medium quite simply because I don't know the teams or personnel.

Onto today, and here's a list of the matches of interest ( based largely on the short odds). This looks to be a day preserved exclusively for the Cup.

12pm - Kruoja( Kru shorthand) v Zalgiris( Zal for shorthand)
Zalgiris are 1.45 away from home in this Lithuanian league encounter. Zalgaris have scored 2 or more in 4 of the last 5 meetings.
Standout stats

• Please note that this is the Lithuanian league and must be treated with an element of caution. 
• These 2 teams met on the 23rd October in the Cup ( 2-1 to Zal) and on the 26th October ( 2-2 in the league) and mysteriously meet again on the 29th October in the league.
• Kru have scored and conceded in 7 of their last 8 matches in all competitions, and 5 of their last 6 league matches.
• Kru have scored 3-2-2 in their last 3 league meetings.
• A 6 match unbeaten run at home for Kru ended with a 2-4 loss to Sudova, after kru had scored first.
• Zal have had only one defeat since the 16th March 2013 in the league. 
• After 4 clean sheets, Zal have conceded in 2 score draws latest.
• From April 2012 to September 2013, Zal went on a superb unbeaten away run which ended on 17th September. Since then they have won and drawn.. Only 1 Zal win away in their last 4 matches 

Profitable in-play opportunities

• There is always a great risk when teams meet for the 3rd time in 5 days that the lesser favoured team will know the favourites only too well. We have already seen Kal improve from an initial 2-1 loss to record a 2-2 draw.
• Both sides have scored and conceded in the 2 most recent meetings.
• An expectation that Zal could score 2 again and Kal could reasonably score 2 as they have scored 3-2-2 in their last 3 league meetings.

12pm - MFC Mykolaiv v Shakhtar
1.07 shots Shakhtar are warm order here away from home.  The shorter the odds , the better the potential DRT's is my general rule.

Just a quick word here. Shaktar tend to score 4 maximum in recent Cup matches which might suggest a team change or taking the foot off the gas and preserving energy once comfortably ahead. This is the Ukrainian Cup, and we can only dream of a 0-0 late on and a 92nd minute Shakhtar winner. Little else to go on here.


545pm - Ajax v ASWH - 1.04 home shots Ajax are expected to put the woes of the weekend behind them and notch a bucket load here tonight. As above really with Ajax clearly dominant. ASWH have lost against top teams 5-0 so that could be the starting point tonight for any speculative increasing of the 1.04 odds.
There tends to be clean sheets in Ajax cup matches against lower teams.
If this match is 0-0 for an extended period, chance over 4.5 goals as a tradable option .

630pm - Sivasspor v Ankaragucu - This Turkish Cup game sees the home side priced at 1.41
This is a match between Super League team Sivasspor and 2 League Team Ankaragucu ( Ankar for short)

Standout stats

• The home team are unbeaten in their last 5 matches, with 4 consecutive clean sheets.
• They have had only 1 draw in their last 14 matches in all competitions at home and have won 8 of their last 10 matches at home.
• Sivasspor have only suffered 2 cup defeats in their last 13 cup matches, against Trabzonspor and Fenerbahce.
• They are unbeaten in their last 6 cup matches at home, winning 5 of them
• In their league, Ankar have had  8 wins and a draw in their last 9 matches.
• Away from home, they are finding League 2 a lot easier with 3 wins and a draw .
• They lost 3-2 in the cup away to Besiktas at about this time last year. A possible marker?

Profitable in play opportunities

• The Turkish Cup, as you can imagine, is hardly top of my list of must-trade matches. This match looks clear cut. Sivasspor appear to be 2 leagues above Ankar and have only lost to top flight opponents in the Cup.
• A clear unbeaten run in the league and the cup should allow Sivasspor to score 2 goals at least, unless of course we get a famous cup upset .

7pm - Kozakken Boys v Utrecht - the Dutch cup sees Utrecht clear favourites at 1.14
Standout stats

• Kozakken Boys' most recent meeting against top flight opponents in the cup saw them lose 4-0. Is this a template for today?
• Utrecht have lost to Twente and Ajax in the Cup, no shame in that, lately.

Profitable in play opportunities.

• We are rather betting blind here as we cannot determine whether Utrecht will play a weakened side.
• 1.14 suggests 3/4 goals will be scored by Utrecht. If this is a tight 0-0, speculate on over 3.5 goals.

7pm - Lille v Auxerre - this French league cup equivalent match sees Lille installed as strong 1.4 favourites.
Standout stats

• Lille have only lost 2 matches since may 2013 in all competitions.
• Lille have kept 11 clean sheets in their last 13 matches in all competitions.
• Lille have kept 6 clean sheets in their last 7 matches at home. 
• Lille have been less than impressive in the Coupe de la Ligue. That said, their last 3 defeats in the Coupe de la Ligue came away from home. Recently, they beat Toulouse in extra time, beat Bastia away and lost on penalties away to St Etienne. There is a feeling Lille do not prioritise this cup.
• Lille have not lost a home match in the cup in their last 6. But they have been pushed to extra time and penalties in 4 of those matches.
• Auxerre are a Ligue 2 side with only 2 wins in their last 8 matches. They have only won 2 of their last 11 away matches
• 5 wins in their last 6 cup matches see Auxerre up for the cup, but it is hard to discern the level of opposition as compared to top flight Lille
• Auxerre have not had a draw away in the cup since 2005

Profitable in play opportunities

• All things being equal ( Lille playing their first team, the team which performs in the league), Lille could keep another clean sheet at home. 
• Lille have been pushed to extra time and penalties in 2 of their recent cup matches.
• It is difficult to weigh up Auxerre's cup achievements, which on the surface look good, but what is the level of opposition as compared with Lille?

730pm - Wisla Krakow v Widzew Lodz - 1.54 home

735pm - Stenhousemuir v Rangers 
Rangers made Mike from Aberdeen a few quid at the weekend when he layed under 3.5 goals as they were 0-0 at halftime. Well done Mike.
So what made him so confident there'd be goals?
Standout stats

• This is the Challenge Cup. Stenhousemuir are in the same league as Rangers.
• They have only won one of their last 5 matches in all competitions.
• At home, Sten have scored and conceded in 7 of their last matches and had 3 1-1 draws in their last 4 matches.
• Sten's last 3 Challenge Cup matches have gone to extra time.
• Sten have scored 3-3-4-2 in their last 4 home Cup matches
• Rangers have won their last 12 matches of which they kept 9 clean sheets.
• Rangers beat Sten 8-0 at home as recently as 28th September .
• Rangers have not lost a challenge cup match winning their last 3 with clean sheets.

Profitable in play opportunities.

• A win to nil could be possible for Rangers if they field the team they normally field. Team news therefore becomes important. 
• Could Sten be up for the cup? Their last 3 matches have gone to extra time. 

745pm - Arsenal v Chelsea - 2.62 Chelsea are away from home against 2.86 Arsenal at home.
Chelsea have not beaten a Premiership side in 90 minutes in the League Cup in recent matches. A draw with Fulham, draw with Everton, loss to Liverpool, draw with Man Utd, loss to Swansea, draw to Swansea could be compelling evidence to oppose them today?
Arsenal's last 3 League cup matches all went to extra time. They lost to Birmingham 1-2 ( 90th minute goal) and Man City ( late 0-1) at home since 2011 in the Cup.
I am afraid I am non committal. here. This is similar to Chelsea's match with man City at the weekend - an imponderable around which anything could happen.
Arsenal face Liverpool at the weekend , and then an away fixture against Dortmund, and you can guess which matches take priority.
Chelsea are away to Newcastle and home to Schalke .
The only strong stat is the one indicating that, in 90 minutes, Chelsea cannot beat Premiership opposition in the League Cup.

745pm - Atalanta v Inter  . This Seria A match must take priority above any Cup matches. Inter Milan are uneasy 2.08 favourites to prevail away from home.
Draw, Draw, Atalanta win when Inter have visited . In the last meeting between these 2, the score was 3-4 to Atalanta. We may have uncovered a bogey team for Inter Milan, hence I suppose the cautious odds about Inter.

Standout stats

• Atalanta are yet to draw this season. Win, loss, Win, Win at home this season 
• 2 of the teams Atalanta have failed to score against this season were 2nd Napoli and 5th Fiorentina. They are playing 4th place Inter today ( but I draw your attention to their ability to cope with Inter Milan in head to heads ).
• At least one team has scored 2 goals in Atalanta matches at home, in deed in all matches against 13th and higher.
• Atalanta have not scored in the first 30 minutes of home matches.
• Neither side has had a 0-0 final score this season.
• Inter have only lost one match this season, against winning machines Roma. 
• 3 Inter draws this season were score draws. 
• Inter have  only failed to score in 1 match this season.
• 5 over 2.5 goals matches for Inter in their last 6
• Inter have kept only 3 clean sheets .
• Palacio seems to be the dominant Inter goal threat.
• The last 3 Inter matches were comfortably NOT 0-0 at halftime, featuring 3,2,4 goals before halftime.
• Win Win Draw Draw for Inter away so far.
• The Opponent is yet to lead in Inter away matches at halftime.

Profitable in play opportunities

• A protracted 0-0 is unlikely so if you see it, lay it. 
• There may be potential in laying the 0-0 Halftime score given Inter Milan's last 3 matches as well as the last 2 head to heads featuring goals.
• Atalanta are yet to draw this season, and Inter have drawn their last 2 matches. To be honest, Inter were mugged in their last away match by a 90th minute equaliser so laying the draw there would have been a trading success in play.
• If Atalanta are leading at in the first half, lay them. 
• Inter are likely to score in this match.

745pm - Birmingham v Stoke - 2.12 away. I have no opinion of this match at all I'm afraid. So much depends on team news.

745pm - Burnley v West Ham - the above also applies to this match where West Ham are 2.44 favourites.

745pm - Man Utd v Norwich
After a very laboured and unconvincing win against Stoke at the weekend, United face Norwich in the League Cup and are 1.37 to prevail.
United have won 2-0 and 4-0 in Premiership head to heads at Old Trafford, but that was under Old Red Nose.
Standout stats

• Team news is vital. We are likely to see something approaching a Pre-season United side.
• United won their last 2 League cup matches at home to Premiership sides.
• United are unbeaten in their last 6 League cup matches in 90 minutes, 2 of them going to extra time.
• United are unbeaten at home in the League cup since September 2008.2 matches have gone to extra time, and the rest of the matches were wins. 
• Norwich have only 1 win in their last 6 matches in all competitions.
• 4 wins, a loss and an extra time win in Norwich's last 6 League Cup matches is good form, and includes a 2-1 away win against Spurs, but a 1-4 loss to Aston Villa.
• Norwich have only won 1 of their last 7 League cup matches in 90 minutes. 3 of those matches went to extra time.

Profitable in play opportunities

• dare I say that the most profitable in play opportunities involve switching off your PC when faced with the League Cup?
• Team news is vital to instil confidence or otherwise. We may see Zaha, Janujaz , Hernandez, Lingaard, Anderson ( as long as he hasn't found a doughnut shop ), and Keane amongst the starting XI.
• Norwich have a poor 90 minute record in the league cup in their last 7 matches, and must surely prioritise Premiership survival. Check out their team changes too. 

9pm - Celta Vigo v Barcelona . This is another league match inbetween the cup "nonsense" and seees Barcelona at their traditional 1.28 favouritism

Standout stats

• 5 wins and a 2-2 draw ( 88th minute Celta goal) in head to heads. There have been 5,4,4,4 goals in the last 4 meetings between these 2 and Celta have scored in those 4 matches. Celta scored first last year, a hope they can do so tonight.
• Celta's only 2 wins this season have come away to the current bottom 5 sides.
• Celta have failed to score in 3 matches this season at home.
• Barca away have kept 4 clean sheets against the 4 teams directly below Celta in the league.
• Celta have failed to score in their last 3 home matches.
• Celta are yet to concede at home in the 1st half.  
• The opponents are yet to lead in Celta home matches.
• Celta have had 3 0-0's at halftime.
• Barcelona failed to score against Osasuna, the only match this season. 4 wins away before this 0-0.
• 4 clean sheets in 5 aways for Barca this season.
• Barca's only 0-0 before halftime was in that Osasuna match.
• Barca have only conceded 2 goals away this season and none in the 2nd half.
• Barca have led at halftime in 4/5 aways.

Profitable in play opportunities

• There is a chance this match will not be 0-0 at halftime based on on barca's stats rather than Celta's 
• Chance over 3.5 goals if this match is 0-0 for a while. There are usually goals in this encounter, although Celta have failed to score in 3 home matches now. 
• This is a match where you either side with recent form ( Celta failed to score last 3 homes, Barca 4 clean sheets away ) or head to heads ( 7 goals last time these 2 met and usually 4 goals and both teams scoring). It does make the match tough to read. Your profits will be determined on which side of these 2 contrasting sets of stats you fall.