Sunday, 27 October 2013

27th Occtober 2013

7am - Oita v Yokohama FM - 1.44 away
 11am - Sevilla v Osasuna - 1.56 home
 11am - Spain (W) v Estonia (W) - unbackcable
 1130am - Napoli v Torino - 1.37 home
 1130am - Roda JC v PSV - 1.77 away
 12pm - CSKA Moscow v FK Krasnodar - 1.71 home
 12pm - Ilukstes NSS v Ventspils - 1.03 away
 1230pm - Neftochimik v Litex Lovech - 1.17 away
 1230pm - Union Berlin v Erzgebirge - 1.63 home
 1245pm - Partick v Celtic - 1.45 away - Celtic short priced away favourites again

Standout stats

  • Celtic have won all head to head recently.
  • Celtic scored a minimum of 2 in each of those wins. 
  • Partick are yet to win a home match and have lost 2 of their last 3. 
  • Partick have kept only one clean sheet this season. 
  • Partick have won only 3 matches this season, all away.
  • Partick have had 3 0-0's at half time at home
  • Celtic are unbeaten this season with only 2 draws.
  • Celtic have scored at least 2 goals in 7 of their 9 matches.
  • Celtic have scored in all matches this season.
  • Celtic have scored 6 away goals in the last 1/4 hour of matches.
Profitable in play opportunities
  • Celtic are likely to score at some stage. So if this is 0-0, keep the faith.
  • Celtic could score late. If the odds allow, back another goal after the 75th minute.
  • Celtic could score at least 2 goals today.



 1pm - Lokomotiv Sofia v Pirin Gotse Delchev - 1.33 home.
 130pm - Feyenoord v Heracles - 1.36 home
Will one of these title contenders take advantage of the Ajax 0-0 yesterday?

Standout Stats


  • Feyenoord at home have scored 10 in their last 2 head to heads.
  • A poor start to the season, albeit losing to Zwolle, twente and Ajax, has turned into 5 wins and 2 score draws.
  • Feyenoord have scored 4 and 3 against teams just below Heracles in the league.
  • Feyenoord have scored and conceded in 4 of their last 5. Feyenoord have scored at least 2 goals in 5 of their last 6.
  • Feyenoord have scored in all matches.
  • All bar one of Feyenoord's matches have ended over 2.5 goals.
  • All defeats this season exclusively v top 4.
  • Feyenoord score the majority of their goals just before halftime.
  • Only one Halftime 0-0 all season.
  • Heracles have only 3 wins this season.
  • 4-6-2-5-3 total goals in Heracles away matches.
  • Heracles have kept only 1 clean sheet.
  • No away draw for Heracles this season.
  • Feyenoord have had only one 0-0 all season
Profitable in play opportunities.

  • Feyenoord are expected to score at least 2 goals today.
  • Halftime Score 0-0 looks layable.
  • Over 2.5 goals is likely to be stingy price but looks like it could come in. The value will be in over 3.5 goals backed if 0-0 after 15 minutes.
  • Lay the draw if a draw late on

 130pm - Sunderland v Newcastle - 2.58 away
I don't tend to trade derby matches ( apart for the Clasico of course) and will be leaving this match alone. It falls into the category of " best team on the day". If you want a speculative punt, then go for High booking points.

 2pm - Chievo v Fiorentina - 2.04 away
 2pm - Dinamo Zagreb v Hrvatski Dragovoljac - 1.17 home
 2pm - Juventus v Genoa - 1.22 home With Roma having a 5 point gap at the Top of Seria A, and Napoli quoted at 1.37 odds and playing at 11am, Juve should have the motivation come 2pm to turn those 1.22 odds into a home win.

Standout stats


  • 2 draws in the last 3 head to heads, and 2 consecutive draws in Juve's last 2 head to heads at Juve. 
  • Juventus have only lost 1 match and that was after leading 0-2 away at Fiorentina.
  • Juventus have conceded 2 goals in their last 2 matches against Milan and Fiorentina.
  • Juventus have scored in all matches.
  • 100% home wins but Juve have conceded one goal in each.
  • In 6 of their last 7 matches, Juve have scored and conceded.
  • At home Juventus matches have seen 2, 3 , 3 goals before halftime, but away they have had 3 0-0's before halftime.
  • Only 2 wins for Genoa this season. 3 of 4 of their defeats were to nil and they have had one 0-0 draw. A potential problem scoring?
  • Genoa ave lost all 3 matches against the top 6 sides
  • Genoa have yet to concede an away goal in the first half this season.
  • Genoa have had 3 0-0's before halftime in their away matches
Profitable in play opportunities

  • Juve have conceded in all matches at home. Will this continue today? Juve have scored in all matches so a late 0-0 must be layed.
  • A likelihood that Genoa will lose as they have done against top sides today. Do note the draws in head to heads.
  • Genoa are yet to concede an away goal in the first half this season, so fear not a halftime 0-0

 2pm - Parma v AC Milan - 2.32 away
 3pm - Dinamo Kiev v Illychivets ( Illy from hereonin)
In this Ukrainian league match, Kiev are strong 1.32 favourites. With home advantage, the match is worth looking at, particularly as www.soccerstats.com covers Ukraine

Standout stats


  • 1-0, 0-0, 1-0 in the last 3 meetings between these 2 might signal caution today and no surprise were this to be a tight encounter.
  • 2 draws and a loss at home for Kiev, a draw came against 3rd and the loss against current 4th placed. Will they cope with 9th placed Illychivets?
  • What on earth do we make of the recent 9-1 home win against 8th? 
  • Kiev have only failed to score in one match this season
  • All 4 of Kiev's defeats this season have come against current top 4 sides.
  • There have been no 0-0's played in any of these 2's matches this season.
  • Illy have had only 1 draw all season. They clearly struggle against current top 6 sides losing all 5. Do note the away defeats were to nil, and 2 of them were 1-0.
  • There have been 5 1-0 scorelines in Illy's last 6 matches. 
Profitable in play opportunities.


  • The value here lies in the opposition of goals. It is speculative, as Dinamo are coming off a 9 goal home haul, but looking at Illy, and head to heads, 1-0 and 0-0 could be backed pre match at biggish odds in the hope that the Illy who had only 5 1-0 scorelines in their last 6 turns up.
  • Illy clearly struggle against top 6 sides and as they have had only 1 draw all season, this points to an avoidance of 0-0 ( neither team has had a 0-0) and another tight defeat, 1-0, 2-0 perhaps?




 320pm - Orebro v GAIS - 1.43 home
 330pm - Vitesse v Groningen - 1.65 home
. 4pm - Chelsea v Man City - 2.4 home - from a trading perspective, this is not a match which appeals. Yes, it will be great to watch, but like the North East Derby match today, it will go to the "best on the day".

 4pm - Ludogorets v Lyubimets - 1.13 home
 4pm - Monaco v Lyon - 1.51 home
 4pm - Swansea v West Ham - 1.73 home
Odds on shots Swansea host West Ham .
Only 2 head to heads of relevance see Swansea win at home and West ham win at home.
Standout stats


  • Swansea have only had one draw all seeason , a 2-2 so laying the draw as a trading option might be viable.
  • No win at home for Swansea this season but to be fair they played Man Utd, Liverpool and Arsenal
  • Swansea have failed to score in only 2 matches this season.
  • All defeats for Swansea this season have come against top 8 sides
  • They have been other than top 8 without conceding.
  • Swansea have not led at halftime this season at home.
  • No 0-0's this season.
  • West Ham have only 2 wins this season, both to nil. The win v Spurs surprised many.
  • West Ham have failed to score in 3 of their 4 away matches.
  • West Ham have had 2 0-0's and a 1-0 loss away - a certain tactic?
  • West Ham have not scored an away goal before the 60th minute 
Profitable in-play opportunities

  • Swansea will not go all season without a home win. Today offer's a good opportunitiy against a team who failed to score in 3 of 4 aways.
  • There is a logical argument for a Swansea win to nil.
  • Swansea have scored all bar one home goal away and West Ham have exclusively scored away after the 60th minute so a halftime 0-0 would not surprise.



 4pm - Tottenham v Hull - 1.41 home

Standout stats


  • No head to heads of relevance 
  • Spurs 2 defeats have come in London derbies. They dropped points in their 3 London derby. 
  • All 5 Spurs wins have been to nil this season.
  • Spurs have drawn and lost their last 2 home matches . Will they really go a 3rd home match without a win?
  • Under 2.5 goals is the overwhelming trend this season for Spurs.
  • Given their predonderance for clean sheets, Laying 0-0 at Halftime would be a bit hit and miss.
  • Spurs are yet to concede a goal in the first half at home. 
  • 3 defeats for Hull have come against Chelsea,  Man City and Everton. They have had 3 wins and 2 draws. An inference that top 6 teams are too much for Hull
  • Hull have conceded 2 goals in all away matches.
  • Losses away to 4th, 5th and 6th and playing 7th today.
Profitable in play opportunities.

  • Spurs could score 2 goals today and this may open up a 2-0 correct score trade.
  • Note the overwhelming under 2.5 goals trend this season in Spurs matches. Will this end against an inferior Hull team?
  • All 5 Spurs wins have been to nil this season, so base decisions around an assumption of another win to nil.
  • Spurs have not won their last 2 home matches, so this is an  unwelcome winless sequence they would like to end. No Gareth Bale to score an 89th minute 25 yard winner alas.

 415pm - Sporting Cristal v Pacifico - 1.27 home
 430pm - Helsingborgs v Kalmar FF - 1.67 home
 5pm - Kayserispor v Galatasaray - 1.49 away
 515pm - Benfica v Nacional - 1.34 home

Benfica gave me a 120 winner , and I sincerely hope they do it for you.

Standout stats


  • Benfica have scored 4-3-4-3-2 in head to heads 
  • Benfica have won 4 and drawn the last 2-2 in head to heads.
  • 3 of Benfica's 4 wins have been while conceding 1 goal.
  • Unbeaten in 6 matches.
  • benfica have conceded in all 3 home matches.
  • Benfica have scored in all matches this season and kept only 1 clean sheet.
  • Nacional have won their last 3 matches without conceding and only conceded 1 in a defeat prior to that run.
  • Nacional are yet to play top 5 sides.
  • 4-3-5 total goals away from home. Nacional have scored 3 goals twice.
  • Neither team has had a 0-0 this season.
Profitable in play opportunities

  • Beware of Nacional today. They are in good form, but are Benfica /Porto/Sporting Lisbon a step up?
  • Benfica have scored in all matches this season so use that in play if they concede.
  • Neither team has had a 0-0 this season so if 0-0 late on, that would be such an anomoly that we can lay said 0-0.

 530pm - Dnipro v Vorskla - 1.45 home
 530pm - Olympiakos v OFI - 1.11 home

Like Benfica, Olympiakos ( Oly from hereonin) have furnished me with 2 1.04 successful lays.
Standout stats


  • In head to heads Oly have not conceded in their last 5 matches, winning 4 and a single 0-0. 0-0 is always a goer in Greek matches so perhaps factor it in ( the odds will be huge to allow for a 0-0 back as insurance against any involvement in the match).
  • 7 wins this season for Oly spoilt by a single 0-0
  • 2-4-6 scored at home, 2 of the wins were to nil.
  • Oly have kept 5 clean sheets in their last 6 matches.
  • OFI have not won this season but have recorded 6 draws, with 3 consecutive 1-1's. Defeats have come away 2-0 and 1-0.
  • OFI have conceded in their last 5 matches.
Profitable in play opportunities

  • I would back 0-0 here pre match just incase OFI " do a Waalwijk". Looking at OFI's profile ( and I'm afraid soccerstats don't do goal times for the greek league), they are a tough nut to crack yet might be cracked eventually
  • If this is a concerted 0-0 , get excited. That is how I profited from 2 1.04 lays in Olympiakos matches last season.
  • If this match is not a 0-0, it could very well be a win to nil. Yes OFI have had 3 consecutive 1-1's but they did lose 1-0 to Panathanaikos.




 6pm - SV Grodig v Red Bull Salzburg - 1.51 away
 6pm - Sociedad v Almeria - 1.58 home
 6pm - Stromsgodset v Start - 1.35 home
 730pm - Zulte-Waregem v Charleroi - 1.54 home
 745pm - Porto v Sp Lisbon - 1.67 home
 8pm - Atl Madrid ( Atl from hereonin) v Betis - 1.28 home
 The new kids on the block, threatening to break the monopoly in Spain?
Standout stats


  • Atl have not lost any of the last 5 head to heads, but the last 2 have been 1-1 and 1-0
  • An 8 match winning run for Atl ended with an own goal 1-0 defeat away to Espanyol
  • Atl have scored 2 minimum at home and have conceded in their last 3 home matches ( so 2 goals necessary!!)
  • Atl are playing 18th at home today and have beaten 17th, 19th and 20th scoring 5-2-4
  • Atl have scored first in 8 of their 9 matches this season. They have scored 8 goals in the first half at home this season.
  • D Costa is the top scorer - check team news if he is absent.
  • Only 2 wins for betis this season have come at home. Loss, Draw, Loss , Loss away from home, and they have scored in all defeats this season.
  • In defeats against the top 6 away, they have scored.
  • Betis have only scored one away goal in the first half so far this season.
Profitable in play opportunities

  • No draw yet for Atl so lay the draw if there is a late draw
  • Betis have tended to score and Atl have tended to concede so both teams to score could be a viable option today
  • Expectation is for Atl to score at least 2 goals at home. Atl could score 3 or more today if their results against the bottom 4 at home can be repeated.


 8pm - St Etienne v Paris St-G - 1.87 away

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