Here is an excerpt of April's article on "creating value from short prices"
Follow this step-by-step strategy to optimise your chances of collecting an evens return time after time.
1) Ensure you know your fractional and decimal odds. This will allow you to use both the bookmakers and www.betfair.com as your resources with which to mine for 1/5, 1 /4 and 1/3 shots. For the record, a 1/5 shot is 1.20 in decimal odds. A 1 /4 shot is 1.25 in decimal odds. A 1/3 shot is 1.33 in decimal odds.
2) Don’t restrict yourself to backing selections in order to make your quota of 1/5 , 1/4 and 1/3 shots. With our ability to lay ( as the patriarch reminds us this month), we can get the same return as a 1/5 , 1/4 and 1/3 shot by laying selections at certain prices. Keep a note of the lay odds below which correspond to the same as backing the selection.
1/5 shot is 1.20 - lay a selection at 6.00 . Backing a 1.20 shot with £100 will return £20. Laying a selection at odds of 6.00 for £100 liability ( not stake) will return around £20.
1 /4 shot is 1.25 – lay a selection at 5.00. Backing a 1.25 shot with £100 will return £25. Laying a selection at odds of 5.00 for £100 liability ( not stake) will return around £25.
1/3 shot is 1.33 – lay a selection at 4.00. Backing a 1.33 shot with £100 will return £33. Laying a selection at odds of 4.00 for £100 liability ( not stake) will return around £33.
What I am going to attempt now is to try and sniff out a 1.2, 1.25 or 1.3 shot which can be backed, or a 6.00, 5.00 or 4.00 shot which can be layed.
I will use the techniques I suggested within the article. I hope you find it informative
RACING POST SHORTLISTERS/PRICE GAPPERS. We look to find horses with an obvious chance of winning, but we want to back them in the TO PLACE ONLY market.
Yesterday
Solar view was unplaced, News at Six won at 9/4, Gabrial the Great won at 1/6
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745 Epsom
Betting forecast: 4/7 Toast Of The Town, 9/2 Cascading, 15/2 Grace And Favour, 11/1 Social Riser, 12/1 Shadows Ofthenight, 14/1 Elpida, 50/1 Chindeni.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: It is very hard to see beyond TOAST OF THE TOWN, who is the one to beat on earlier form but who seemed to come on significantly when fourth in a Listed race at Nottingham last time. She has been keeping on at the end of her races at 1m2f and should win this if anywhere near as effective at 1m4f. Cascading is preferred to Grace And Favour for second. [Mel Cullinan]
2 places available only here. " very hard to see beyond?"
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725 Leopardstown
Betting forecast: 11/10 Artistic Integrity, 9/2 Korbous, 11/2 Nedera, 7/1 Little Arrows, 8/1 Our Manekineko, 12/1 Our Max, 14/1 Queen Of Norway.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: ARTISTIC INTEGRITY (nap) was an emphatic winner of a 7f handicap at Gowran on Tuesday and should make the most of this opportunity for a quick follow-up. Korbous may prove the best forecast option. [Alan Sweetman]
2 places only again here and an apprentice ridden race.
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840 Newbury
Betting forecast: 5/6 Venezia, 7/2 Stella Bellissima, 7/1 Pleasant Valley, 8/1 Gwafa, 8/1 Three Peaks, 16/1 Guard Of Honour, 33/1 Pennine Panther, 66/1 Sir Woodgate, 100/1 Italian Symphony, 100/1 Steel A Tune.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Although Pleasant Valley and Gwafa are very lightly raced and have shown potential, VENEZIA looks far and away the most likely option among those who have run following his fourth in a 1m4f handicap at Royal Ascot, which was far from being his only form of note. Whether he does indeed get off the mark in this race may well depend on the newcomer Stella Bellissima who hails from a top yard and has an excellent pedigree.[Richard Austen]
Looks like a race involving few here. CAn we hope Venezia places at least?
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TENNIS SHORT PRICES
3 shocks yesterday, Caci beat 1.12 shot Busta, Kerber won and Kyrgios won.
Today
1pm - Lucie Safarova v Petra Kvitova - 1.43 Petra - 23rd v 6th - 0-5 to Petra
3pm - Andrey Golubev v Philipp Petzschner - 1.36 And - 56th v 575th
7pm - Adrian Mannarino v Juan Ignacio Londero - 1.3 Adriano - 81st v 198th
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FOOTBALL SHORTIES
Yesterday -Nothing of interest
Today
12pm - Chernomorets Odesa v FK Hirnyk Kryvyi Rih - 1.27 home
7pm - RNK Split v Mika - 1.31 home
730pm - SS Folgore-Falciano v Buducnost Podgorica - 1.3 away
730pm - Vale of Leithen FC v Dumbarton - 1.19 away
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SHORTLIST
Yesterday
11am - Philipp Petzschner v Thomaz Bellucci - 1.27 Bell - 575th v 97th - the big rankings gap didn't work out yesterday, but here we have another very big gap and a reasonable price about bellucci.
Another let down by these lower ranked tennis players. So I think it's lesson learnt here!
Today
745 Epsom
Betting forecast: 4/7 Toast Of The Town, 9/2 Cascading, 15/2 Grace And Favour, 11/1 Social Riser, 12/1 Shadows Ofthenight, 14/1 Elpida, 50/1 Chindeni.
Toast of the Town to place if 1.2 or higher.
The tennis isn't working with the lower ranked players. If I had any confidence still I'd put up Andrey Golubev
Football wise, it's extremely difficult with early Europa League matches.
I'm going to play the waiting game today. Wait for better qualifiers.
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