Here is an excerpt of April's article on "creating value from short prices"
Follow this step-by-step strategy to optimise your chances of collecting an evens return time after time.
1) Ensure you know your fractional and decimal odds. This will allow you to use both the bookmakers and www.betfair.com as your resources with which to mine for 1/5, 1 /4 and 1/3 shots. For the record, a 1/5 shot is 1.20 in decimal odds. A 1 /4 shot is 1.25 in decimal odds. A 1/3 shot is 1.33 in decimal odds.
2) Don’t restrict yourself to backing selections in order to make your quota of 1/5 , 1/4 and 1/3 shots. With our ability to lay ( as the patriarch reminds us this month), we can get the same return as a 1/5 , 1/4 and 1/3 shot by laying selections at certain prices. Keep a note of the lay odds below which correspond to the same as backing the selection.
1/5 shot is 1.20 - lay a selection at 6.00 . Backing a 1.20 shot with £100 will return £20. Laying a selection at odds of 6.00 for £100 liability ( not stake) will return around £20.
1 /4 shot is 1.25 – lay a selection at 5.00. Backing a 1.25 shot with £100 will return £25. Laying a selection at odds of 5.00 for £100 liability ( not stake) will return around £25.
1/3 shot is 1.33 – lay a selection at 4.00. Backing a 1.33 shot with £100 will return £33. Laying a selection at odds of 4.00 for £100 liability ( not stake) will return around £33.
What I am going to attempt now is to try and sniff out a 1.2, 1.25 or 1.3 shot which can be backed, or a 6.00, 5.00 or 4.00 shot which can be layed.
I will use the techniques I suggested within the article. I hope you find it informative
RACING POST SHORTLISTERS/PRICE GAPPERS. We look to find horses with an obvious chance of winning, but we want to back them in the TO PLACE ONLY market.
Yesterday
Jimmy's Girl a non runner, Tryster won 5/6, Highland reel won 8/15
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810 Chepstow
Betting forecast: Evs Solar View, 6/1 Our Folly, 7/1 Annaluna, 9/1 Jezza, 10/1 Arty Campbell, 10/1 Ashdown Lad, 10/1 Desert Recluse, 16/1 Significant Move.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Despite missing all of 2013 SOLAR VIEW looked as good as ever when winning on his return over 2m at Yarmouth five days ago, his fifth win from his last six starts, and he's taken to go in again under a 6lb penalty. Arty Campbell is still relatively lightly enough raced to be capable of further imrpovement and is feared most, ahead of Our Folly.[John Acton]
massive price gapper, but in a handicap and a 6 lb penalty. Won last time again. Will he place at least, or bomb out like so many of these handicap good things?
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830 Fairyhouse
Betting forecast: 4/5 News At Six, 5/1 Grecian Tiger, 5/1 Snow Scene, 10/1 Queen Of Alba, 12/1 Smoker, 20/1 Melanippe, 20/1 Progenitor.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: NEWS AT SIX (nap) looked a different horse at the Curragh and likely will win this if repeating that form. There should be a reasonable gallop for him to come off, which is perhaps the only potential worry. Snow Scene looks best for forecast players. [Johnny Ward]
Price gapper here, albeit only 2 places Bolger/Manning combo though is good to see.
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210 Perth
Betting forecast: 2/7 Gabrial The Great, 3/1 Alphabetical Order, 25/1 The Village, 50/1 Roll Of Thunder.
Only 1 horse for this favourite to beat? Or is the best value in Alphabetical order to place only, hopefully at 1.2 or above odds.
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TENNIS SHORT PRICES
3 shocks yesterday, Caci beat 1.12 shot Busta, Kerber won and Kyrgios won.
Today
9am - Alessandro Giannessi v Maximo Gonzalez - 1.2 Max - 313th v 116th
1045am - Guillermo Duran v Andrea Arnaboldi - 1.3 And - 560th v 171st
11am - Philipp Petzschner v Thomaz Bellucci - 1.27 Bell - 575th v 97th
12pm - Simona Halep v Sabine Lisicki - 1.39 Halep - 3rd v 19th 2-1 H2H - Halep has won in 3 sets in the last 2 meetings.
130pm - Novak Djokovic v Marin Cilic - 1.1 Novak - 0-0 Head to Heads 2nd v 29th
130pm - Andy Murray v Grigor Dimitrov - 1.3 Mur - 3-1 H2H - 5th v 13th 4 7-6 set matches in their last 3 encounters, and their meeting in Mexico ended with 2 7-6 sets and a win for Dimitrov. Murray;s 1.3 odds are far too short against a man of this calibre.
330pm - Milos Raonic v Nick Kyrgios - 1.52 Milos - what chance a tie-breaker or 3? 2 massive servers. - 9th v 144th - both about the same height, and both killer servers. This again suggests odds on status for raonic is premature, that is unless Kyrgios peaked yesterday. These 2 have already met on Clay at Roland Garros and Raonic won 6-3, 7-6, 6-3
330pm - Stan Wawrinka v Roger Federer - 1.36 Rog - Swiss pair and a big leap in Roger's odds all of a sudden from sub 1.1 to over 1.3 - 3rd v 4th and 2-13 Head to Heads
Stan won the final in monaco 4-6 7-6 6-2 after a run of 11 consecutive Federer wins in head to heads. So, yet again, there is an argument for laying Roger at 1.36
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FOOTBALL SHORTIES
Yesterday -Ferencvaros drew 1-1 but a nice trade when Sliema took the lead and Ferencvaros equalised. Levadia Tallin won 0-1
Today
Nothing of interest today
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SHORTLIST
yesterday
The horse racing is all maiden led which is a real turn off. I am, though, taken by the profile of this race
610 bath
Betting forecast: 11/10 Jimmy´s Girl, 11/2 Powerfulstorm, 6/1 Multi Quest, 6/1 Scent Of Power, 12/1 Frank The Barber, 16/1 Indian Tim, 16/1 King´s Bond, 20/1 Spirit In Time.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Powerfulstorm has been a single-figure price on both runs so far and although she's yet to beat a rival, she could have more to come in headgear and this looks particularly weak. JIMMY'S GIRL has her limitations but she should give her running and that could be enough to see her get off the mark at the fourth attempt.[Paul Smith]
yes a maiden, but I do like the profile here, 2 consecutive 2nd places for the fav and 3 places - NON RUNNER
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Today
1245pm - Nikola Cacic v Pablo Carreno Busta - 1.12 pab - 548th v 60th - a massive rankings gap - perhaps a straight sets win will boost the odds? LOST
230pm - Nick Kyrgios v Rafael Nadal - 1.06 Nad - 144th v 1st - you've seen how unreliable 3-0 set betting can be, but surely 144th in the world will not land a blow against a fully fit Rafa? There is another way to get the odds we are looking for. perhaps back Rafa to win the first set. LOST
730pm - La Fiorita v Levadia Tallinn - 1.37 away - as with the Germany match, this is a risky one, it's the Champions league, but I am taken by a Levadia team who love winning, and keeping clean sheets. They come off the back of a 19-0 win in the Cup and are playing a team from the San Marino league. We might have a good chance here. Do note this is a 2 legged affair which adds further risk as a win is not required is it? - WIN
Naivete yesterday for me. Check the players! I knew nothing about Kyrgios nor did I realise that Rafa had lost the 1st set in all matches. I actually put this up as a lay at 1.06 in my DRT column! Not sure what happened with Busta. Lower ranked players are the Arthur Daley's of the tennis world, not to be trusted.
Levadia Tallin won but with a 90th minute goal.!
Today
11am - Philipp Petzschner v Thomaz Bellucci - 1.27 Bell - 575th v 97th - the big rankings gap didn't work out yesterday, but here we have another very big gap and a reasonable price about bellucci.
And that's it today. I'd be more of a layer than a backer today of these tennis shorties.
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