Wednesday, 16 July 2014

1st August creating value

Here is an excerpt of April's article on "creating value from short prices"
Follow this step-by-step strategy to optimise your chances of collecting an evens return time after time.
1) Ensure you know your fractional and decimal odds.  This will allow you to use both the bookmakers and www.betfair.com as your resources with which to mine for 1/5, 1 /4 and 1/3 shots. For the record, a 1/5 shot is 1.20 in decimal odds. A 1 /4 shot is 1.25 in decimal odds. A 1/3 shot is 1.33 in decimal odds.
2) Don’t restrict yourself to backing selections in order to make your quota of 1/5 , 1/4 and 1/3 shots. With our ability to lay ( as the patriarch reminds us this month), we can get the same return as a 1/5 , 1/4 and 1/3 shot by laying selections at certain prices. Keep a note of the lay odds below which correspond to the same as backing the selection.
1/5 shot is 1.20  - lay a selection at 6.00  . Backing a 1.20 shot with £100 will return £20. Laying a selection at odds of 6.00 for £100 liability ( not stake) will return around £20.
1 /4 shot is 1.25 – lay a selection at 5.00. Backing a 1.25 shot with £100 will return £25. Laying a selection at odds of 5.00 for £100 liability ( not stake) will return around £25.
1/3 shot is 1.33 – lay a selection at 4.00. Backing a 1.33 shot with £100 will return £33. Laying a selection at odds of 4.00 for £100 liability ( not stake) will return around £33.

What I am going to attempt now is to try and sniff out a 1.2, 1.25 or 1.3 shot which can be backed, or a 6.00, 5.00 or 4.00 shot which can be layed.
 I will use the techniques I suggested within the article. I hope you find it informative


RACING POST SHORTLISTERS/PRICE GAPPERS. We look to find horses with an obvious chance of winning, but we want to back them in the TO PLACE ONLY  market.

Yesterday
None
Today

530 Bath
Betting forecast: 8/11 Fray, 4/1 Flora Medici, 4/1 Sonnetation, 14/1 Song Of Norway, 14/1 Stosur.
Ted Durcan in the saddle. 6 lb penalty. Will he place?

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700 Nmkt
Betting forecast: 6/4 Zephuros, 15/8 Prince Gagarin, 2/1 Lexington Times.

3 horses and 2 places. Back the horse 1.2 or as near as to place.

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405 Thirsk
Betting forecast: 8/15 Kommander Kirkup, 4/1 Resist

This favourite consistently places

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TENNIS SHORT PRICES
Yesterday's Results
None


TENNIS SHORT PRICES
Today's possible selections - Please note that these times seem to be indicative only. It is extremely frustrating when I'm doing my trebles, having to wait until some hours after the allotted time for the match to start.

12pm - David Goffin v Maximo Gonzalez  - 1.35 David - 78th v 104th

1215pm - Adrian Mannarino v Brydan Klein  - 1.27 Adr - 101st v 429th

730pm - Svetlana Kuznetsova v Vania King  - 1.33 home - 26th v 76th  2-0 H2H

9pm - Steve Johnson v Milos Raonic  - 1.19 Milos - 68th v 7th


FOOTBALL SHORTIES


Yesterday
None

today

8pm - Shamrock Rovers (Res) v Longford  - 1.26 away

5pm - FC Infonet v Lokomotiv Johvi  - 1.1 home - get the 1.2 minimum odds by backing the home side to win at halftime?

5pm - Sillamae Kalev v Tammeka Tartu  - 1.1 home - as above

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SHORTLIST

Yesterday
none


Today

9pm - Steve Johnson v Milos Raonic  - 1.19 Milos - 68th v 7th - seems to be consistently improving Milos.

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700 Nmkt
Betting forecast: 6/4 Zephuros, 15/8 Prince Gagarin, 2/1 Lexington Times.

3 horses and 2 places. Back the horse 1.2 or as near as to place.  Hope the favourite is 1.2 or thereabouts in the place only market in a great probability race. 66% chance of placing.

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5pm - FC Infonet v Lokomotiv Johvi  - 1.1 home  -something like a halftime bet on Infonet or halftime/fulltime may get us the 1.2 minimum odds or higher.








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