Here is an excerpt of April's article on "creating value from short prices"
Follow this step-by-step strategy to optimise your chances of collecting an evens return time after time.
1) Ensure you know your fractional and decimal odds. This will allow you to use both the bookmakers and www.betfair.com as your resources with which to mine for 1/5, 1 /4 and 1/3 shots. For the record, a 1/5 shot is 1.20 in decimal odds. A 1 /4 shot is 1.25 in decimal odds. A 1/3 shot is 1.33 in decimal odds.
2) Don’t restrict yourself to backing selections in order to make your quota of 1/5 , 1/4 and 1/3 shots. With our ability to lay ( as the patriarch reminds us this month), we can get the same return as a 1/5 , 1/4 and 1/3 shot by laying selections at certain prices. Keep a note of the lay odds below which correspond to the same as backing the selection.
1/5 shot is 1.20 - lay a selection at 6.00 . Backing a 1.20 shot with £100 will return £20. Laying a selection at odds of 6.00 for £100 liability ( not stake) will return around £20.
1 /4 shot is 1.25 – lay a selection at 5.00. Backing a 1.25 shot with £100 will return £25. Laying a selection at odds of 5.00 for £100 liability ( not stake) will return around £25.
1/3 shot is 1.33 – lay a selection at 4.00. Backing a 1.33 shot with £100 will return £33. Laying a selection at odds of 4.00 for £100 liability ( not stake) will return around £33.
What I am going to attempt now is to try and sniff out a 1.2, 1.25 or 1.3 shot which can be backed, or a 6.00, 5.00 or 4.00 shot which can be layed.
I will use the techniques I suggested within the article. I hope you find it informative
RACING POST SHORTLISTERS/PRICE GAPPERS. We look to find horses with an obvious chance of winning, but we want to back them in the TO PLACE ONLY market.
Yesterday
1.08 for the place for Mustadeem, 1.41 for the win odds.
Today
405 Haydock
Betting forecast: 4/7 Muqaawel, 7/2 Divine Law, 5/1 Jersey Bull, 10/1 Dragline.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: MUQAAWEL won his recent debut authoritatively and in promising style, which gives him easily the most appeal in this small field although the ground conditions could be very different. Divine Law has been improving over shorter trips and looks the most plausible danger.[Richard Austen]
4 horses and 2 places - with such a small field, can be back Muqaawel to win?
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515 Haydock
Betting forecast: 11/8 Roseburg, 5/1 Al Busayyir, 5/1 Tanseeb, 8/1 Libran, 8/1 Master The World, 8/1 Pupil, 14/1 Fire Fighting.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: ROSEBURG (nap) stands out in terms of potential and he may well be on a good mark anyway judged on his latest win which came on soft ground at Doncaster. Master The World makes a huge step down in class, but on current evidence Al Busayyir has done more.[Richard Austen]
Roseburg looks appealing judging by this price gap - likely to be 2 places only - check the place only market. Did you know, though, that the last 5 handicap price gappers like this one , have lost all their races, 4 of them not placing!!
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325 Leicester
Betting forecast: 5/4 Asyad, 7/2 Carnevale, 15/2 Bureau, 9/1 Guishan, 10/1 Ghinia, 11/1 Division Belle, 12/1 Compton Bird, 14/1 Bright Cecily.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: ASYAD (nap) is very much the one to beat after a good second on her seasonal/handicap debut second at Newbury last time. She was clear of the others then so an 8lb rise is fair and this Irish Oaks entry is pitched into a lesser handicap now. Carnevale may be next best, ahead of possible improver Division Belle, whose pedigree suggests she may well be better for this longer trip. [Mel Cullinan]
8 runners and 3 places. Asyad to place here? Spotlight likes him. Ted Durcan is onboard.
TENNIS SHORT PRICES
Yesterday
Mathieu won at 1.29, Novak won at 1.26 although his odds were higher in play as predicted, Enrique beat 1.15 shot Gonzalez in 3 sets, and 1.38 Roger Federer beat Raonic. If you went strictly with the tennis yesterday at Wimbledon, you'd have been happy .
Today
There are a lot of tennis matches on today but as I write they have absolutely no liquidity at all.
2pm - Eugenie Bouchard v Petra Kvitova - 1.81 Kvitova. How do we get a 1.2 ish odds bet here? I would look perhaps at laying Kvitova to win 2-0 sets? Hopefully the return will be equivalent to a 1.2+ odds return.
230pm - Alexander Zverev v Paul-Henri Mathieu - 1.33 Mathieu - he won at similar odds yesterday
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FOOTBALL SHORTIES
Yesterday -Nothing of interest yesterday although I suppose Ze Germans and their efficiency and Brazil and Fifa's wish for the hosts to go through looked , in hindsight, like obvious bets!
Today
230pm - Molde v Sogndal -1.27 home
3pm - East Fife v Fulham - 1.17 away
9pm - Netherlands v Costa Rica - 1.56 home
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SHORTLIST
Yesterday
Mathieu won at 1.29 and Mustadeem won at 1.41 , placed at 1.08
Today
325 Leicester
Betting forecast: 5/4 Asyad, 7/2 Carnevale, 15/2 Bureau, 9/1 Guishan, 10/1 Ghinia, 11/1 Division Belle, 12/1 Compton Bird, 14/1 Bright Cecily.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: ASYAD (nap) is very much the one to beat after a good second on her seasonal/handicap debut second at Newbury last time. She was clear of the others then so an 8lb rise is fair and this Irish Oaks entry is pitched into a lesser handicap now. Carnevale may be next best, ahead of possible improver Division Belle, whose pedigree suggests she may well be better for this longer trip. [Mel Cullinan]
8 runners and 3 places. Asyad to place here? Spotlight likes him. Ted Durcan is onboard.
Does look appealing if we can get a 1.2 + odds about Asyad
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3pm - East Fife v Fulham - 1.17 away - I need my head testing getting involved in friendlies. Make sure the market is liquid, maybe visit the Sportsbook? Check team news. We want to see the fulham 1st team here. Scottish football is sub standard when compared with a team who have played in the Premiership for such a long time.
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