Friday, 4 July 2014

1st august 2014 DRT

Summary of yesterday's matches

What a contrast in Estonia, as FC Infonet scored 10 , at 1.1 odds, and Sillamae Kalev struggled to win 1-0. The latter were available to back at about 1.34 before they scored. Imagine backing a team at triple their original odds and still winning.

Were you persuaded by Shakhtar's 12 wins in 14 matches last year, to stay with them yesterday? Vorskla scored first and led until the 80th minute, when Shakhtar suddenly sprung into life and scored 2 goals to snatch the match. It would have made an excellent DRT for those staying with the Ukrainian powerhouses.
I'm not a big friendly fan , but do like Dortmund whose friendly record is solid. And so, against Chievo, at 0-0, those who kept faith in Dortmund grabbing a winner, would have been rewarded.with a 2nd half winner.

The Slovan match was very interesting. It went exactly as per the research. Both teams scored, and Slovan's 1.36 odds were far too short to back. Any layers of Slovan would have been rewarded in-play. They did eventually win the match 2-1.
I spoke previously about hating friendlies. Well, Bournemouth 3, Swansea 1 was unexpected and a sign that friendlies are open to team changes, experimentation and are dodgy betting mediums.
Anderlecht won 0-2 with 2 2nd half goals for anyone taken by laying the 0-0 at halftime, given they scored 7 goals in 2 head to head meetings with Oostende.

I was very happy with the Longford match, even throwing in a correct score of 0-3. The match was 0-0 at halftime so any 0-3 backers at the start of the 2nd half would have been rewarded with much better odds.

I will be giving you pointers like these when the live chats begin on the 9th August.



730pm - Oostende v Anderlecht  - 1.74 away
Standout stats
  • the Belgian season is only 1 match in so limited research. This will be one of the leagues I focus on as the season progresses .
  • Anderlecht have won the last 2 most recent head to heads 3-0 and 4-0
  • Oostende lost 2-0 away to Lierse in their first match.
  • Anderlecht won 3-1 at home to Mouscron in theirs
  • Oostende are unbeaten in 8 matches in the league, stretching back obviously to last season.
  • Anderlecht are on a 6 match winning streak in the Belgian league, again stretching back to last season. away from home, they won 3 of their last 4 matches but I think those were in the play-offs. Take these away and Anderlecht lost 5 of the previous 7 away matches

Profitable in-play opportunities
  • it's all conjecture at the moment. Only 2 matches in, Head to heads point to an easy away win, but then when expecting a 3-0, 4-0 win, you'd expect the odds to be shorter. Anderlecht were poor away last season  - will that continue this season? 
  • I'll wait until there are more matches before trading this league.
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8pm - Shamrock Rovers (Res) v Longford  - 1.26 away

Standout stats
  • this is an Irish First Division match, not as readable as the Premier League in Ireland
  • this is 7th v 1st in a league of only 8 teams ( so these guys meet each other regularly
  • this season is 19 matches old
  • In 2014, Shamrock won 2-1 and then Longford won 6-0 at home
Shamrock
  • only 3 wins all season
  • are on an 8 match losing streak and have not had a win in 10 matches
  • have conceded in their last 9 home matches
  • have failed to score in their last 9 matches
  • did beat Longford Town at home 2-1 earlier in the season but have since really deteriorated
  • only 33% over 2.5 goals at home, so tend to lose 2-0?
Longford Town
  • A 7 match winning streak and unbeaten in 11 matches overall, 6 away from home
  • have not conceded in their last 5 away matches
  • have scored either 2 or 3 goals in their last 6 matches

Profitable in-play opportunities
  • this looks like a win to nil on current form ( in head to heads both teams scored in the last home match.) You can therefore go for a correct score win to nil for Longford Town, beginning perhaps at 0-3 and including 0-5 incase they go to town.
  • Look for Longford Town to score 3 goals or more today although do note that only 33% of Shamrock's home matches have seen 3 or more goals.
  • with the expectation for goals, should we expect at least one before halftime? If you see a long period of the first half without a goal, lay the 0-0 halftime score.
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