SUNDAY 1st DECEMBER 2013
PRICES FROM BOOKMAKERS ( ladbrokes)
930am - Terek Grozny V Zenit St Petersburg - 1.45 away
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Profitable in play opportunities
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11am - Real Betis v Rayo Vallecano - 1.95 home
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1130am - Catania v Milan - 1.83 away
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1130am - ADO Den Haag V Ajax - 1.45 away
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12pm - Tottenham v Manchester Utd - 2.62 home and away
A rocky Tottenham face another Manchester side who themselves dished out a 5-0 away win against Leverkusen.
These high profile matches are usually tough to trade because invariably it is 'best on the day'.
Standout stats
- This is a match between 9th and 6th, separated by a single point. I do not see that head to heads will have much relevance as the United management change is so significant
- Tottenham keep clean sheets in victory at home. 2 1-0 wins against Swansea and Hull are wholly unconvincing.
- Against better sides at home, Tottenham have drawn 1-1 with Chelsea and lost 0-1 to Newcastle.
- Tottenham's performance overall against teams above them is poor, 3 defeats without scoring and a 1-1 and 0-0.
- Tottenham have failed to score in their last 3 matches and and their recent goalscoring record tells us Soldado is not earning his wages 1-1-0-2-1-0-0-0 scored recently.
- Tottenham have conceded only 1 goal in the first half at home.
- Both sides have had a single 0-0 this season.
- Manchester United's only away defeats have come via top 4 sides. They are unbeaten in their last 3 away matches winning 2 and they should have won away at Cardiff. In each of these , 2 goals or more were scored.
- This forms part of a run of 6 unbeaten for United, and they have picked up an unwelcome Everton trait. UNited have scored and conceded in 7 of their last 8 matches/
- United are a great team for laying 0-0 in the halftime score market, but will Tottenham's real defensive bent put paid to that?
- United have now scored in their last 9 matches but might be missing Robin Van Persie ( how this ex Arsenal man would love to rub it in at White hart lane!)
- 83% of United's away matches are over 2.5 goals.
- It's about 50/50 who'll score first in this match which makes it a good one for a potential DRT trade.
Profitable in play opportunities
- I fear for Tottenham without a Jurgen Klinsmann type of forward - reliable and consistent ( and a good diver). They have failed to score in their last 3 matches and only really scored a maximum of 1 in recent matches. This means they must keep a clean sheet to progress.
- Tottenham's set up against the big teams is obvious this season. Keep it tight, yet again, and hope for the best, but still they have been unable to score more than 1 resulting in a best case 1-1/
- Manchester United have lost to top 4 away this season and they have scored 2 in each of their last 3 away matches. UNited's scoring in their last 9 games is good news for them and bad news for Tottenham.
- At 2.62, Tottenham look distinctly layable , particularly if they score first ( might employ a 1-0 insurance given their defensive bent)
- United have scored and conceded in 7 of their last 8 matches and are obviously the team with the greater momentum.
- It's 50/50 stats wise who scores first, so be at the ready.
- This might not be a good match for 0-0 halftime score lay ( it would be if based solely on Manchester United's record)
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12pm - Slavia Sofia V Botev Plovdiv - 1.6 away
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1230pm - Greuther Furth v Cottbus - 1.57 home
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1pm - Bordeaux v Ajaccio - 1.5 home
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130pm - Feyenoord V PSV Eindhoven - 2.15 home
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130pm - Vitesse V Cambuur - 1.36 home
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130pm - Maribor V Zavrc - 1.45 home
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130pm - Trabzonspor V Erciyesspor - 1.7 home
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130pm - Lierse V Standard Liege - 1.5 away
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2pm - Atalanta v Roma - 1.85 away
Standout stats
- This is 10th v 2nd. Roma have now got a case of draw-itis
- Atalanta have only had one draw all season, a 1-1. Enough to hope for an end to the Roma draws?
- Atalanta are far better at home, losing only 1 but away they have lost 6.
- Atalanta have only dropped points at home to 4th and 5th -significant?
- Atalanta have failed to score in only 1 home match, a 0-2 loss to Fiorentina.
- Atalanta have had only 3 clean sheets all season and have conceded in the last 6.
- Atalanta have scored in their last 4 home matches.
- Roma are unbeaten, but are now on a 3 match draw sequence. Their last match is the only one in which they failed to score.
- Roma have had clean sheets in all bar those 2 1-1 draws in their last 3 matches.
- Roma have scored in all aways.
- Roma have not conceded away in the first half hour of matches.
- Roma tend to score first away from home.
Profitable in play opportunities
- Roma are ending sequences in recent matches. A winning sequence ends, a scoring sequence ends. What will end next? The draw sequence?
- Note Atalanta are far stronger at home but is it significant that their sole draw and loss came against 4th and 5th?
- Will Roma continue to score in away matches?
- Roma have struggled away to 11th and 12th 0-1 and 1-1.Will that continue against 10th?
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2pm - Inter v Sampdoria - 1.4 home
Inter Milan have been quietly getting on with it this season, and have been grossly underestimated by bookmakers in a few matches this season. Not this match it seems.
Standout stats
- Inter have scored 2 at least in the last 3 head to heads, winning them all. At Inter though, DDW ( D=Draw and W=Win) sees Sampdoria historically competitive.
- This is a match between 4th and 18th. Inter Milan are bang in the title race. Sampdoria are bang in trouble
- Inter have only lost one match this season, at home to Roma.
- Inter have only dropped points at home to 1st and 2nd They have scored at least 2 goals in their 4 wins.
- Inter are yet to play the bottom 4 at home.
- Sampdoria have only 2 wins this season and have lost all matches home and away against the top 7 ( 5 matches, scoring a single goal).
- Sampdoria have only kept one clean sheet this season and have scored in 6 of their last 7.
- Sampdoria have conceded in their last 6 away matches.
Profitable in play opportunities
- Inter Milan seem likely to score 2 goals today. Sampdoria seem likely to concede ( only 1 clean sheet) so a 0-0 is a shock scoreline late on.
- If we go by Inter alone laying 0-0 halftime score is a good option but in Sampdoria we have a side who have collected a few 0-0's at halftime.
- There is nothing here to relay a potential shock. Let's just hope that Sampdoria score first or it is 0-0 late on. Yesterday we backed 1-2 Dortmund at halftime. If 0-0 in this match, I feel there is leverage in a similar tactic.
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2pm - Dinamo Zagreb V Hajduk Split - 1.65 home
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205pm - Hull v Liverpool - 1.61 away
No Daniel Sturridge a big miss, but they do have a certain Suarez.
Standout stats
- there are no head to heads of relevance.
- this is a match between 13th and 2nd and is a must win for Liverpool in order to keep tabs on Arsenal , 7 points ahead of them
- Hull have only 4 wins this season, 3 of them an unconvincing 1-0 but all at home. Perhaps 1-0 is a pre match insurance bet?
- Note Hull have not played top 9 teams yet at home so their patterns may not repeat against the better teams. The current home pattern is for 1-0's ( 4 of them) with a 0-0 and a 1-1 added into the mix. It remains to be seen, as I say, how they perform against the top top teams.
- I suppose we can get a glimpse of that with Hull's away form which has been exclusively against top 9, where they have lost 5 and beat Newcastle 2-3
- Hull have conceded only 2 at home so far but remember who they have ( or haven't ) played
- Liverpool have only lost to Southampton and Arsenal this season, both without scoring, but I doubt the Hull defence is as accomplished as those 2 sides'.
- Beware Hull. Liverpool have goals in them -3-3-2-4-0-4-3 but that was with Sturridge.
- Liverpool have scored in all away matches bar the Arsenal loss.
- Sturridge has scored 5 away goals for Liverpool so he is an obvious miss.
Profitable in play opportunities
- Hull's reasonable form at home must be put into context. They are yet to play top 9 at home. Away they have met top 9 and conceded 2+
- Liverpool are without Sturridge but Suarez could have a good time against lesser lights. It is a tough match to get a handle into but the assumption is that Hull at home will get an unflattering introduction to the real Premiership and their home form will start to dip once introduced to more top 9 sides.
- Speculative Suarez hatrick today?
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230pm - Spartak Moscow V Volga Novgorod - 1.28 home
This short priced home team is worth looking at.
Standout stats
- Spartak Moscow are unbeaten in head to heads with 4 wins and a draw in the league. The most recent head to heads were a 1-1 draw and a 0-1 Spartak win
- This is between 3rd and 11th. Spartak could go top ( joint top) with a win.
- Spartak have lost only 4 this season, 3 of them away matches. They have lost 2 of their last 3 matches.
- Spartak have only lost one home match against 2nd.
- Apart from the 2 0-0's, Spartak tend to score 2+ goals and are priced to do so today.
- They have scored 2 and 4 in their last 2 home matches.
- A look at Volga's matches this season, and it's inconsistency which springs to mind.
- Their last 4 wins were home wins so they are vulnerable away from home.
- Volga have lost away matches against 6th, 8th and 9th without scoring. They have conceded 3-4 goals in those defeats.
- 8 matches have been played against top 8 teams home and away and Volga have lost 7 and drawn 1 2-2.
Profitable in play opportunities
- Spartak to score 2 or more. Volga look vulnerable to the top sides overall and away from home have failed to score and conceded 3 at least against 6th, 8th and 9th.
- Spartak have lost 2 of their last 3 matches -is that a cause for concern? At home they have only lost to 2nd.
- If Spartak are losing at any stage there is a hope that they will be motivated ( to go top) to fight back
- Over 2.5 goals is the resounding trend for both sides.
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3pm - Hearts v Celtic - 1.33 away
This is a Scottish Cup match
Standout stats
- 5 consecutive Premier League wins for Celtic against Hearts and in those matches they have scored 5-1-4-4-3 goals.
- Hearts have actually beaten Celtic in this cup, 1-2 in April 2012. Hearts only loss in 8 Cup matches seems to have been a second leg 1-0 loss having already won 1-5 in the 1st leg. Hearts seem up for the cup.
- Hearts have had 2 consecutive home draws in the cup, and their only recent defeats were 0-1
- Celtic's only defeat in their last 7 cup games was that loss to Hearts.
- Celtic have scored 3-2-3-3 in their last 4 away cup matches.
Profitable in play opportunities
- faith in the odds here? Obviously both sides are "up for the cup"? Not much else to go on.
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330pm - Salzburg V Josko Ried - 1.25 home
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330pm - NEC Nijmegen V AZ Alkmaar - 1.85 away
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4pm - Granada CF v Sevilla - 2.5 away
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4pm - Sporting Gijón V Alcorcón - 1.61 home
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4pm - Nacional Madeira V Vitoria Setubal - 1.75 home
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410pm - Chelsea v Southampton ( Saints)- 1.53 home
Standout stats
- Who'd have thought that this could be a top 5 clash?
- There have been 3 2013 meetings, 1-5 Chelsea win in the cup, 2-2 home draw Chelsea, and 2-1 Southampton home win.
- Chelsea remain unbeaten at home, and consistently scoring 2 minimum. They have played one of the top 5 at home, beating Manchester City 2-1.
- Chelsea have scored 2 goals in 5 of their last 6 matches resulting in 5 over 2.5 goals matches out of their last 6.
- Chelsea have failed to score in 3 this season, all away matches.
- Chelsea have scored 5 goals at home in their last 1/4 hour of matches.
- Chelsea tend to score first at home and no opponent has led at halftime at Stamford Bridge.
- Both sides have had a single 0-0 this season.
- Southampton have had only 1 over 2.5 goals match this season, a home 4-1 win v Hull.Away from home, 2 scorelines dominate, 1-0 or 1-1.
- Only one team has scored 2 goals against Saints this season and that was Arsenal in a 2-0 away defeat.
- Do note that despite apparent defensive soundness, Saints have conceded in their last 3 away matches.
- Saints have only scored 4 away matches and only 1 in the first half away, so for all their defensive strengths, they are not taking advantage at the other end.
- Saints have never led at halftime away from home.
Profitable in play opportunities
- This is a clash between a team consistently scoring 2 goals minimum v a team who have only conceded 2 goals in 1 match this season. Intriguing!
- I would side with Saints defensive solidity early on. Only one over 2.5 goals match all season could suggest a 0-0 pre match back?
- If Saints contrive to lead in the first half, lay them in the Halftime market.
- Could both teams eventually score as they have done in head to heads?
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410pm - Manchester City v Swansea - 1.28 home
Manchester City have goals in abundance- will they inflict another heavy loss on another team? Swansea are missing key personnel such as Michu
Standout stats
- The last 3 Premiership meetings are interesting, 1-0 Swansea, 1-0 City and 0-0.
- This is a match between 6th and 11th and what really stands out is the +22 goal difference column for Man City.
- What do you do against a team who have scored 13 goals in their last 2 home matches without conceding?
- City have won all home matches and have only failed to score 3 goals or more in one match .City have also managed 4 clean sheets at home
- Home matches are vital for Man City as they are terrible away from home.
- With so many goals flowing, 0-0 halftime score laying looks an obvious punt.
- 83% of Man City's home matches have been over 3.5 goals.
- City have scored 13 in both halves at home and conceded only 2.
- Aguero is a vital player at home, scoring 7 City goals.
- Swansea have scored 2 goals in their 3 away wins this season against West Brom, Crystal Palace and Fulham.
- Swansea are yet to draw away and they have lost their 2 matches against top 9 sides away this season.
- Swansea's overall record against the top 10 is poor, 4 defeats and a 2-2 draw.
Profitable in play opportunities
- Goals look an obvious call today for Manchester City but do we take those tight head to heads as signalling something else? Head to heads have it as 1-0 maximum, recent form has it as possible 6 City goals.
- Swansea have a poor record against the top 10 so if they score first, they are layable. Man City seem more reliable at home, thankfully they are not playing away from home today!
- Logic says lay the 0-0 halftime score as late as possible in the first half.
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430pm - Borussia Mönchengladbach v Freiburg - 1.44 home
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5pm - Podbeskidzie Bielsko-Biala V Legia Warsaw - 1.57 away
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5pm - Kasimpasa V Galatasaray - 2.4 away
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5pm - Anderlecht V Cercle Brugge - 1.22 home
Anderlecht at home are usually very reliable so if they get in trouble we'll be in DRT territory
Standout stats
- Anderlecht have been consistent goalscorers in recent head to heads, scoring 4-3-2-4.
- Anderlecht have kept 6 clean sheets in their last 7 head to heads.
- This is a match between 5th and 9th. Yes Anderlecht are 5th which is a poor showing for such a club.
- A good starting point? Anderlecht have only 1 draw all season. 4 of Anderlecht's 5 defeats have come against 7th and higher.
- Wins have come against 8th and lower and , well, Cercle Brugge are 9th.
- When Anderlecht win at home , they do so with 3+ goals.
- Anderlecht have scored in their last 6 matches
- Anderlecht have failed to score in their last 2 matches.
- 63% of Anderlecht's matches are over 3.5 goals.
- Neither side have had a 0-0 this season.
- Cercle Brugge lost 0-4 to Anderlecht on the 2nd match of the season.
- They are unbeaten in their last 3 away matches but note that they are against 11th and lower.
- Cercle have lost away to 4th and 6th without scoring.
- Cercle are on a decent enough run, only 1 defeat in 7 matches . They have , though, only kept 3 clean sheets all season
Profitable in play opportunities
- A 0-4 win already this season should be compelling enough. Indeed Cercle have played 2 other top 6 sides away and lost both matches.
- If you expect Anderlecht to win, it will be by 3 goals +
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530pm - Juventus v Udinese - 1.33 home
The Old Lady have been in great form this season.
Standout stats
- Juventus have won all head to heads since 2012 and scored 4 goals in each of the last 2 meetings.
- This is a match between 1st and 11th. Roma are hot on Juve's tails but Roma's habit of drawing of late should be exploited by a Juventus team who must win when presented with a chance of winning.
- Juventus have lost only one match this season and they were actually 0-2 up in that match.
- 3 consecutive home clean sheets and scoring 2-4-3 sees Juventus in rude health at both ends of the pitch.
- Juventus have scored 2 or more in all home matches this season
- Juventus have not had a draw in 10 matches, have scored in their last 13 matches and have won their last 6 home matches.
- Juventus have scored 10 first half goals and 8 2nd half goals. Watching them in TV, they tend to dominate and eventually score that 1st half goall. It may be worth delaying entry into the halftime 0-0 score market and laying at as low odds as you can get.
- No opponent has won at halftime at Juventus
- Neither side has had a 0-0 this season.
- 5 defeats and a single win away for Udinese is in stark contrast.
- Udinese have failed to score in 4 of their last 6 matches which is a worry.
- Udinese did buck a trend last match by winning 1-0 at home to free-scoring Fiorentina.
- Udinese are yet to meet the current top 7 away from home.
- They have lost 0-1 and 0-3 to top 4 teams at home.
- Like Juventus , Udinese have not had a draw in their last 10 matches.
- Udinese have conceded 8 away goals in the first half this season
Profitable in play opportunities
- What looks obvious based on the stats is that the 0-0 halftime score lay might be on, thanks to Juventus first half scoring and Udinese's appalling 1st half concessions.
- Juventus tend to score 2 goals at least at home.
- Slight concern. Udinese have not met the current top 7 away from home so we cannot really gauge performance against the big boys away this season.
- 3 consecutive home clean sheets plays a Udinese who have failed to score in 4 of their last 6 matches.
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530pm - Olympiacos V Ergotelis - 1.15 home
My good DRT friends Olympiakos are yet again 1.15 shots. This is a reliable team , able to extricate themselves from trouble should they find themselves conceding at any stage.
Standout stats
- Olympiakos have scored 2-3-3-3 in the last 4 head to heads.
- The last 2 head to heads at Olympiakos were 3-0 wins.
- This is 1st v 9th.
- Olympiakos are unbeaten this season with only 1 defeat.
- At home Olympiakos have scored 4 goals or more in 4 of their 5 home matches.
- Ergotelis have had a good start to the season but in their last 4 matches, have lost 3. Ergotelis suffer from draws away from home. Against the top 8, Ergotelis have lost to 2nd and drawn with 3rd, 7th and 8th .
- Ergotelis conceded 2 goals against 2nd and 3rd away
Profitable in play opportunities
- 3 goals minimum is the ideal for Olympiakos, and there's a possibility of a win to nil.
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545pm - Rio Ave V Benfica - 1.55 away
With Porto losing last night, this is a great opportunity for Benfica.
Standout stats
- Benfica are unbeaten in head to heads and have won 5 of the last 6. WWDW ( W=Win and D=Draw) when benfica visit Rio Ave.
- This is 10th v 3rd and Benfica go top with a win.
- Only 2 wins for Rio Ave in 8 matches sees them in poor form.
- Their wins recently, 2 away wins were both 0-1.
- Only 2 matches for Rio have been under 2.5 goals.
- Rio Ave have failed to score in 5 of their last 8 matches.
- Rio Ave have failed to score in their last 4 matches at home.
- Benfica have lost only 1 match this season, their first match.
- DWWW ( D=Draw, W=Win), away from home for Benfica.
- Benfica are undefeated in 9 overall and have scored in their last 10 overall.
- Benfica have kept 3 clean sheets in their last 3 matches.
Profitable in play opportunities
- This looks like an ideal opportunity for Benfica against a Rio Ave side who simply cannot score at home of late.
- Benfica could score 2 or 3 playing their best today.
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6pm - Valencia v Osasuna - 1.5 home
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6pm - Rapid Vienna V Wacker Innsbruck - 1.36 home
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6pm - Viktoria Plzen V Pribram - 1.2 home
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7pm - Vasco da Gama V Náutico - 1.25 home
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7pm - Steaua Bucharest V Petrolul Ploiesti - 1.6 home
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730pm - Genk V OH Leuven - 1.3 home
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745pm - Sporting Lisbon V Pacos Ferreira - 1.4 home
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8pm - Athletic Bilbao v Barcelona - 1.57 away
That's a reasonable price for Barcelona but it's a price which surely tells a story?
Standout stats
- Barcelona have scored at least 2 goals against Bilbao in their last 6 head to heads. There have been 2 2-2 draws, most recently in the last head to head.
- This is a match between 5th and 1st. Atl Madrid are on the same points as Barcelona so each match is its usual must-win.
- Bilbao are unbeaten at home and have scored 2 goals in 6 of their 7 matches. Perhaps telling is the away form, losses to the 2 Madrids.
- Bilbao beat 4th 2-0 at home but they are yet to play the top 3.
- Bilbao have failed to score in only 1 match this season, the same as Barcelona.
- Only 3 clean sheets for Bilbao suggests both teams more likely to score in a match
- Bilbao have scored 9 goals in the last 1/2 hour of matches at home
- Opponents are more likely to score first at Bilbao home matches.
- Barcelona have won all matches they have scored in ( all bar 1)
- Barcelona are yet to play the current top 9 this season ( Bilbao are 5th) away from home so this might not be as easier as earlier assignments.
- Barcelona score about the same 1st half as 2nd half.
Profitable in play opportunities
- Tough to read Barcelona given they have not met the top 9 away from home this season. Head to heads suggest they are in for a toughie against a Bilbao side capable of scoring 2 goals against Barcelona.
- Bilbao could score first in which case it would be a nice DRT.
- Barcelona this season tend to score 2 minimum, but again I remind you away they have not played top 9 away.
- Both sides are likely to score.
- If it's a quiet first half, expect some 2nd half goal action.
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8pm - PSG v Lyon - 1.33 home
PSG continue their dominance in France thanks largely to the dependable Cavani and Ibrahimovic
Standout stats
- The last 2 meetings have seen 2 PSG 1-0 wins. The odds suggest it will not be as tight today.
- This is 1st v 8th and the front 3 in France are quite closely packed . This should keep PSG honest.
- PSG are one a few teams in Europe clinging on to an unbeaten record. Porto lost theirs last night.
- All PSG home wins have seen them scoring 2+. 2 score draws have been 1-1 v 3rd and 19th
- PSG have scored in all matches this season, including late late goals which are DRT'ers benefits.
- PSG scored about the same in both halves at home.
- Ibahimovic and Cavani together have scored 13 goals at home, so if either of these players are absent it might disadvantage PSG
- PSG's last 10 matches have seen at least 1 goal scored before halftime.
- PSG have scored 2-2-4-2-4-3-3 in their last 7 matches.
- 4 away losses for Lyon have been bookended by 2 wins.
- Lyon have scored and conceded in all away matches. They have lost to 3rd but beaten 5th away from home. They may yet score today?
- Lyon have scored and conceded in 7 of their last 9 matches.
- Lyon have scored 5 goals directly after halftime away.
Profitable in play opportunities
- What do we make of the 2 1-0 head to head results. They are certainly not hinted at with this season's form and I suppose the addition of 2 world class strikers for PSG where perhaps there weren't any in previous encounters.
- PSG remain unbeaten this season and that is priced to continue.
- A speculative halftime score 0-0 lay looks logical given the home team's scoring record.
- PSG have scored 3 or more in 4 of their last 5 matches. If you think that will continue this match, then over 4.5 goals is a considered punt?.
- Lyon have scored and conceded in a 100% over 2.5 goals away record so look perhaps for a goal from them.
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