There were plenty of low key ( and relatively low odds) trades to have in earlier fixtures,especially the minnows who all seemed to have their Shredded wheat yesterday and held out on occasion til 0-0 at halftime. But the inevitable collapses occured for the usual roll call - Andorra u21, Leichtenstein u21 ( who have lost every single match ever in the Euro Championship), and San Marino u21.
Value bet of the day? Laying Andorra/Andorra at 10.5 in the Halftime/Fulltime market. I'll never see the like again!!
The World Cup qualifiers I left behind. With so much at stake and over 2 legs, tactics would supercede previous form.
And the friendlies? Well I am so glad the laptop was off, and my profits firmly ensconced in Betfair. England failed to score at home in a friendly in 20+ matches I think it was, but hey, they don't need to score. It's not important!
Germany and Italy though continued to both score in their friendlies in a match which went out like a light after 28 minutes.
A Messi-less Argentina could manage only a 0-0 too against Ecuador.
Estonia u21 were a massive price pre match ( 1.63) to defeat Andorra u21 and scored in the 2nd half.
Moldova u21 v San Marino u21 was 0-0 at halftime. Moldova u21got the breakthrough 2nd half as well.
Ditto Latvia u21 v Leichtenstein u21.
Bet of the day was the U.A.E against Hong Kong. The stats were so strong, and U.A.E won 4-0. Pity there was no DRT there.
So the lesson from yesterday is -just because there are high profile football matches, it doesn't mean you have to trade them! I have learnt my lessons from the past and friendlies do leave me cold ( unless of course Germany are leading 0-4 in a friendly at halftime - of course we lay them at 1.01, and Sweden score 4 2nd half goals!!)
What I would advise for today is to "think U.A.E.". If I find a match as clear cut as the U.A.E. v Hong Kong match yesterday then I will certainly highlight it for you.
SATURDAY
On to today and it's more of the same I'm afraid. Take a note from yesterday that the minnows are confidently opposable, even if it looks as if they might hold out for a 0-0. If there are any today, it'll be a good DRT match.
There's a mingling of some domestic action with another of those minnows ( San Marino u19 who turned 1.03 shots Norway u19 into 3.25 shots just a day or 2 ago , holding out until the 86th minute. I know, I backed the 1.03 shots at 1.25 which I thought was value and was sweating it out with fellow Betfairians on the forum, desparate for the breakthrough which eventually arrived.)
Tread, and trade, carefully today therefore. Look for your Japan 2-0 up at halftime kind of trades, or Portugal u19 v San Marino u19 0-0 after 70 minutes. These are the trades to sniff out. We have play offs in Africa which are very much "contextual" , meaning we need to view the game as is, and not based on past form. Today's matches are 2nd legs where the prize is a trip to Brazil.
I repeat, it is another tricky coupon today, and I long for a return to Europe wide league action.
1215pm - Japan v Netherlands - 1.52 away
We have another friendly and the Netherlands team head off to Japan. As you saw with England et al yesterday, treat friendlies with the disdain they deserve and preserve your betting bank, unless of course there is a very very anomolous scoreline where we can enter the market at minimal risk
Standout stats
- 1-0 and 3-0 to the Netherlands in head to heads, albeit as far back as 2009 and 2010
- Holland have a decent enough record in friendlies, recent defeats have come against Germany ( Nov 2011), Bulgaria ( May 2012) and Belgium ( August 2012).They have drawn recently against germany, Italy and Portugal and beaten Indonesia and China
- 3-5-6-3-2-2 total goals in recent away friendlies for Holland.
- I am not sure if this is home or away as soccerway.com has Holland first ( normally indicating home) and Betfair has japan first.In any case this friendly is being played in Genk, which I think is Belgium
- Only 1 draw for the japanese in their last 16 friendlies. Recent defeats have come against Bulgaria, Uruguay, Serbia and belarus.
Profitable in play opportunities
- This is a match to quickly gloss over I'm afraid, making little appeal. If either side lead 2-0 at halftime, I would lay them at short odds for an interest as halftime usually signals wholesale team changes. I hope you learned from last night that the heart just isn't there for these teams in friendlies.
3pm - Brentford v Crewe - 1.47 home
We head on over to League One and I rarely sojourn there. As it is a quiet day, and as Brentford are at home and 1.47 shots,. I can do some basic research on this league match and see if I can unearth any standout stats
Standout stats
- Brentford have won the 2 most recent head to heads 5-1 and 0-2
- This is a match between 5th and 22nd in league one so there's quite a contrast there.
- Brentford's home losses cam against top team and 10th, where they failed to score.
- Brentford beat Sheffield United 3-1 at home, and are playing the team above them today.
- Brentford have gone 10 matches without a draw and have scored in their last 5 matches.
- Brentford have conceded 4 of their 5 home goals in the 2nd half.
- Opponents have only led in 1 of 7 matches played at Brentford.
- Both of these teams have had a single 0-0 each this season,. Brentford have had 3 halftime 0-0's in 7 home matches, while Crewe have had no away 0-0's at halftime.
- Crewe surprised many with a coupon busting 0-2 away win against 4th in the league.
- That is an anomoly. Crewe have lost 5 away matches conceding 2-5-1-3-4.They have lost away to 1st, 7th and 8th and are playing 5th today so it does not augur well.
- 2 of Crewe's 3 wins this season came at home to current bottom 5 sides.
- Should we be concerned with a recent home 0-0 against Bradford, the team directly below Brentford?
- Crewe have not had a 0-0 at halftime away - will that supercede Brentford's 3 home 0-0's at halftime?
- Crewe have only kept 3 clean sheets all season, 2 of those resulted in a win.
- Crewe have conceded 9 goals away either side of halftime.
- Brentford are on a current run of 2 1-0 wins. Their defence is strong therefore and they should find things easier against a bottom 3 side at home. They beat another bottom 3 side 3-1 already.
- What do we make of Crewe's last match, a home 0-0 v 6th? They are away this time, and to 5th? Does it signal a better defence or will they continue to concede easily away ( average around 2).
- All of Brentford's matches home and away to bottom 7 sides saw them score and concede. Will that continue today? If Crewe score first, particularly in the first half, I would lay them in the Halftime score market, strengthened by the fact Brentford s opponents have only led in 1 of 7 matches at halftime.
3pm - Nigeria v Ethiopia - 1.28 home - this is an African World Cup qualifier and Nigeria are one of the real powerhouses with some household names in their ranks.
Standout stats
- This is the 2nd leg of a World Cup playoff so I will be cutting research short here as this is a match based on context.
- Nigeria lead 1-2 from the first leg , where Ethiopia scored first in the 2nd half and Nigeria scored a 67th minute goal to equalise and a 90th minute winner which was a penalty. This is wholly UNconvincing on the face of it, isn't it, so why are Nigeria so short today? It was hardly an emphatic victory.
- If we take the pattern from the first leg, then a back of 0-0 pre match might have legs, to lay of if the match remains 0-0 at halftime.
- Nigeria merely need a 0-0 to go through, Ethiopia must score a goal and not concede a goal. This is the bare bones of this match and makes it a tough one. I certainly would not be a Nigeria backer at 1.28 given the way the first leg panned out. I would even lay at such a short price.
3pm - Notts Co v Wolves - Wolves are finding League One much easier and are 1.79 away favourites today. There are no recent head to heads given Wolves have only recently entered league one.
Standout stats
- Ahh, the mysteries of League One. In which other league would 2nd bottom v 2nd top , have the 2nd top at 1.79? Surely they should be a lot shorter? There must be a story behind these relatively high odds for Wolves who go top with a win today ( were Notts County docked points for some indiscretion, I don't know?)
- Wolves have only 1 loss this season, in a local derby with Walsall, a 1-0.
- All of Notts County's wins at home this season have come against bottom 7 sides.
- Notts have only had 1 draw all season and no draw at home
- Notts have lost 3 home matches by a slim 0-1 scoreline - is that the reason Wolves' price is not lower?
- Against 1st and 3rd home and away though, Notts have been easily beaten 5-1 and 2-4. Do Wolves have the capability of scoring 4 or5 ?
- Notts County have won 3 of their last 4 home matches ( but again I refer you to the league positions of the opponents). Despite the lowly league status of the opponents, is this winning habit something they can carry through against 2nd in the league?
- Notts County have not had a draw in 12 matches.
- Notts county have conceded in their last 5 matches.
- Notts County have not had a 0-0 this season.
- A 5 match away winning streak for Wolves ended with a 2-2 last match.
- Wolves are undefeated away from home.
- Against bottom 9 sides, Wolves have consistently scored 2 goals home and away. Will that continue against Notts county who have conceded 2+ goals in 4 of 5 matches against top 9.
- Wolves are undefeated in 8 matches, and have scored in their last 8 matches.
- Wolves' last 2 away matches were 1-2 at halftime.
- Wolves have scored first in 5 of their 7 away matches.
Profitable in play opportunities
- Wolves should not lose today given the motivation to go top with a win against 2nd bottom.
- Notts county only tend to win against bottom 7 sides at home. If they lead at any stage they must be opposed I feel.
- Notts county have not had a draw in 12 matches. Wolves had a draw in their last away match. Can we safely lay if there is a draw late on.
- Wolves have consistently scored 2 goals against bottom 9 sides. Maybe you can speculate on that occuring if it's only 1-0 or 1-1 late on to Wolves.
- 2 consecutive 1-2 away halftime scores for Wolves - is this enough to lay the 0-0 halftime?
5pm - Portugal U19 v San Marino U19 - 1.02 home
I refer you to the research 2 days ago regarding San Marino and it still stands of course, but add another defeat, this time 2-0 against Norway u19. San Marino held out until the 86th minute. We can only wish to back Portugal u19 at as good a price ass Norway u19 were available ( a high of 3.25 for a 1.03 shot).
Think goals, think win to nil.
545pm - De Graafschap ( De) v Achilles 29 - 1.2 home
The Dutch eerste divisie has been largely inconsistent and unreliable but on a quiet day. and featured at www.soccerstats.com,these 1.2 home favourites are worth researching.
Standout stats
- De have only lost home matches against 1st and 3rd in the league and have scored in all home matches.
- De are playing 19th ( of 20) Achilles today which will explain De's short price.
- All home wins, bar one, against 7th and lower, has seen De score at least 2 goals.
- De have only failed to score in 3 matches all season , all away matches.
- De have only had one 0-0 this season.
- Achilles have won only 2 away matches, and they were against bottom 5 sides.
- Achilles have not had a draw in 15 matches.
- Achilles are on a current 5 match losing streak.
- Achilles have only kept 2 clean sheets all season.
Profitable in play opportunities
- there is no history between these 2 teams. Recent form suggests De will score at some stage, and should not lose at home.
- There is a chance that De could score 2 goals at least today.
- Achilles have not had a draw in 15 matches, so watch out for a late draw and late it, and hope that this standout stat continues.
- There should not be a 0-0 in this match. There are no halftime score stats in this league.
6pm - Wales v Finland - 2.28 home
This is a very unappealing friendly and the market recounts what a tough match to read it is. This is not a match I will be trading in, but on this rather quiet day, I'll take a quick glance at the stats.
Standout stats
- Wales have only had the one draw in 21 friendlies, and that came in a 0-0 at home to Ireland.
- Wales have only scored in 1 match in their last 5 matches ( 2 goals in a win against Austria).
- Finland have kept 4 clean sheets in their last 5 friendly matches
A match to quickly leave alone I feel!
7pm - Senegal v Ivory Coast - 1.8 away
Ivory coast won easily enough in the first leg of this World Cup play off, 3-1 ( albeit with goals coming via a penalty and an own goal).
This is another contextual match. Senegal must keep a clean sheet and hope for the best. They are though playing an impressive side with the likes of Gervinho, Drogba, Kalou, all superb goalscorers. A midfield comprising Yaya Toure, Zokora, Razak , Diomande impresses .
This is another match where research is redundant. Basically Ivory coast can tolerate a 1-0 loss. Senegal must win 2-0 minimum in order to take this play off the distance.
9pm - Equatorial Guinea v Spain - 1.11 away
11 consecutive wins for Spain in friendlies ended with a 2-2 draw v Chile, thanks to Jesus Naves 90th minute equaliser. Hope for Spanish foibles tonight! This is not worth researching at all. Team news will relay confidence in goals. Spain have scored at least 2 goals in 14 of their last 15 friendlies.
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