The Albania u21 v Spain u21 gave you a chance to back a 1.03 shot at 1.25 and higher. Yes, Spain u21 struggled in the first half but eventually scored in the 2nd half for a great value bet.
The Austria U21 v Hungary u21 was hardly the under 2.5 goals match I was expecting. Austria were actually 1-2 down in this match, which was the DRT trade, and they pushed on to win 4-2 .
The Israel u21 v Portugal u21 was a trader's delight, Israel u21 led twice in the match, with Portugal eventually winning a thriller 3-4.
Peterborough's problems continue, as they went down 2-0 to Walsall. The problems for me of lowering my sights to lower leagues.
The goals flowed once more in a Helmond v WillemII match, and this was my highlight match of the day. 1-4 was the eventual scoreline and Helmond yet again scored and conceded. Total goals between these 3 teams have been 7-6 and now 5!!
130am - Argentina v Bosnia - 1.57 home - no Messi
1030am - Syria v Oman - 2.48 away
1130am - China v Saudi Arabia - 2.24 home
12pm - Hong Kong v Uzbekistan - 1.26 away
12pm - Litex Lovech v Sozopol - 1.04 home
1245pm - Malaysia v Qatar - 1.55 away
2pm - Russia v South Korea - 1.98 home
245pm - Bahrain v Yemen - 1.14 home
3pm - Croatia U21 v Latvia U21 - 1.19 home
330pm - Lebanon v Iran - 1.65 away. I quite like Iran from what I've seen of them. They over delivered at a higher price than this away to Thailand last week.
330pm - U.A.E. v Vietnam - 1.12 home - I liked the U.A.E. against Hong Kong. It really was a standout bet. How do they measure up against Vietnam in this Asian Cup qualifier ( ACQ for short)?
Standout stats
- UAE are clearly dominant in the region and in ACQ matches. They have won their 4 2013 matches with a 1-2 win against Vietnam ( a hard fought victory as it was 1-1), 2-1 home win against Uzbekistan ( coming from behind), 0-4 win against Hong Kong, and another 4-0 win against Hong Kong.
- Vietnam, like Thailand below, are struggling in ACQ matches. They have not won any of the 8 they have competed in since 2009, and have lost their 4 2013 matches. Considering they have lost 1-0 to Hong Kong, who UAE soundly spanked 4-0 (twice), it is not wonder that UAE are priced up to score 3/4 goals and possibly win to nil.
Profitable in play opportunities
- There are unlikely to be any in this match. Do note that at Vietnam the scoreline was only 1-2 and it was a very tight match. The market expects a far more comfortable UAE performance today. If Vietnam score first, then this is our entry point for a DRT trade.
335pm - Kuwait v Thailand - 1.3 home. The problem with Thailand is that they simply do not have a consistent finisher, or any finisher for that matter. In this Asian Cup qualifier ( ACQ for short), clearly Thailand are struggling.
Standout stats
- kuwait are unbeaten in 8 ACQ matches. But note they have drawn 6 of their last 7 ACQ matches.
- In February this year, Kuwait beat Thailand 1-3 away from home, and emphatically.
- Kuwait have drawn their last 3 home ACQ matches.
- Thailand have not won their last 7 ACQ matches. They have lost their last 5 matches, and have conceded 5-2-3 since Kuwait beat them 1-3.
- Interestingly Thailand perform better away from home, insofar as they actually score! Thailand scored 2 goals away at Lebanon and 1 goal away at Iran. Could Thailand get on the scoresheet today?
Profitable in play opportunities
- would seem to be scarce in this match. Any DRT really relies on Thailand scoring first and their forward line is simply dire. There is hope , as Thailand have scored 3 in their last 2 ACQ matches.
- Kuwait have a case of drawitis but were clear winners against Thailand in February and can be considered as worthy favourites against a Thailand side on a 5 match losing run in this competition.
4pm - Egypt v Ghana - 2.04 home - these World Cup play off matches in Africa have exclusively gone with the short priced favourite in the 2nd leg, particularly when they have home advantage. We see this pattern again today.
Ghana have just beaten Egypt 1-6 in the first leg, and Egypt are inserted as evens favourites .
My guess is that this is because Ghana do not have to win, merely avoid a 5-0 defeat.
This is almost a dead rubber for the Ghanaians. It adds to the list of matches ( such as France and Sweden's) which are very difficult to find a trading angle.
4pm - Russia U21 v Estonia U21 - 1.22 home
2nd and 3rd meet in group 2. Russia u21 have played a match more than Estonia u21
Standout stats
- Only one defeat in the group for Russia U21 came at the hands of the group leaders Denmark. That defeat came at home, and the other home match saw a 3-1 win against Bulgaria u21.
- Estonia too went 1-0 down to Denmark, and worryingly drew 1-1 with Andorra before beating Andorra 0-2 in the return match.
- Estonia u21 are unbeaten in 4 matches. Their wins have seen clean sheets.
- Estonia u21 are unbeaten in their last 3 away matches.
Profitable in-play opportunities
- This is not a match I can really get an angle into, bar Russia's short odds betraying the market's view. Both sides have lost to Denmark, but there is little else to tell me the relative strengths of the 2 teams. yes Estonia are unbeaten in 4 matches and that might count for something.
4pm - San Marino U19 v Luxembourg U19 - 1.87 away. A chance for a rare win?
5pm - Romania U21 v Germany U21 - 1.49 away
5pm - Slovenia v Canada - 1.4 home
5pm - Sweden U21 v Malta U21 - 1.1 home
Sweden u21 are way off the pace in group 7th, 4th after 4 games , with 4 points. All the 4's. A win therefore becomes a necessity today.
Malta have no points after 5 matches.
Standout stats
- Sweden have been in relatively poor form of late and are therefore difficult to read. For example, they beat Poland u21 3-1 at home, and then promptly lost to the same team 2-0 a month later. Sweden u21 have had just that 1 win in 6 matches, and a draw against Turkey u21 ( 2-2), They were very soundly thrashed 5-1 by Greece u21 in their last match and must eye up this match against Malta as an opportunity for 3 points.
- Sweden u21 look strong at home, with 4 wins and a tight 2-3 loss to Italy u21 in their last 5 matches. 4-3-2-2-3 scored in those matches must augur well for today's match?
- Malta u21 have failed to score in 5 of their last 7 matches. They scored in 2 5-1 defeats, to Ukraine u21 and Poland u21.
- Malta u21 have consistently conceded big numbers - 4-5-2-4-5-4-5 in their last 7 matches, and this does not augur well when their opponents are priced at 1.1 ( likelihood of 4/5 goals scored and a possible win to nil).
- Sweden's saving grace might be their home form and their opposition's ability to concede 4 and 5 goals like clockwork.
- Sweden it must be said are in poor form, but then in Malta u21 they meet a team in poorer form.
- This is a match where the odds suggest 3/4 goals minimum, and Malta's form suggests 3/4 goals minimum, and Sweden's goalscoring at home at least suggests 3/4 goals minimum.
6pm - England U21 v San Marino U21 - England are unbackable. And that means only one thing. An expected avalanche of goals. 6-0 looks a good starting point for me.
We have seen minnows in recent matches really dig in their heels, this enabled us to back a team such as 1.03 Spain u21 at odds as high as 1.25 ( I backed them at 1.12 as I thought that was value!). We can only dream of that today, or even a San Marino u21 goal.
Norway u19 were backable at odds of 3.25 against San Marino u19. What hope England u21 reach these odds. It truly will be Christmas-come-early!
No real research necessary here. Note that when teams are unbackable, you could speculate higher than 6-0 -remember the Spanish ladies won 13-0 recently.
6pm - Malta v Faroe Islands - 1.95 home
6pm - Norway v Scotland - 2.1 home
6pm - Turkey v Belarus - 1.52 home
615pm - Algeria v Burkina Faso - 1.58 home
7pm - South Africa v Spain - 1.23 away - Spain were 1-2 up against the might of , er, Equatorial guinea and that was how that match ended. Spain were 1.1 in that friendly and are now 1.23 here against a stronger side in South Africa.
Standout stats
730pm - Netherlands v Colombia - 2.18 home
745pm - Austria v USA - 2.24 home
745pm - Carlisle v Boreham Wood - 1.42 home
745pm - Croatia v Iceland - 1.36 home - Iceland survive for the 2nd leg away to Croatia after a 0-0 in the first leg of this World Cup play-off. I said it earlier with the African play-offs that the short priced favourites, particularly when playing at home, have tended to win comfortably. With Croatia at 1.36 at home this evening, the market expects this trend to continue.
This might be a nervy home match for Croatia as they lost at home to Spain and Belgium in their last 2 matches.
Iceland scored and conceded in their last 4 away matches in World Cup qualifiers.
I repeat though that this is a one off.
745pm - France v Ukraine - 1.46 home Teams have found Ukraine a tough team to score against. Quite simply, Les Bleus need a 2-0 scoreline bare minimum for starters. Ukraine, well, a 0-0 or a 1-0 sees them comfortable . An intriguing match of attack v defence tonight.
Your success or failure in this match will depend on the trust you place in an initial France 2-0 scoreline. It is definitely worthy of an investment as it is the far more likely outcome with home advantage.
745pm - Poland v Rep of Ireland - 2.32 home
745pm - Romania v Greece - 2.22 home - Greece look done and dusted in this World Cup play off with an emphatic 3-1 win at home. It was 1-1 until the 19th minute , then Greece trotted clear.
Again, no research can really be done in these special games.
Romania need a 2-0 result for starters , and then push on from there. Greece need a 0-0 ( and this being Greece, it would not surprise) or a 0-1 to really knock the stuffing out of the Romanians.
With the odds at 2.22 for the favourite, this relays the difficulty in getting a good betting angle in.
745pm - Sweden v Portugal - 2.8 home and 2.78 away. The 2 teams cannot be split in the market, and are only split in this 2nd leg by a single goal for Ronaldo's Portugal.
Again, research is redundant in this winner takes all World Cup match. Context is everything.
Sweden must score first. That is the key for them.
Sweden must not concede.
Portugal are happy with a 0-0. If Portugal score first, you feel the tie is over, but Sweden have shown historically that they have bags of goals in them ( see their performances against Germany). Like the France v Ukraine match, this is a match to enjoy and not particularly to have a trading position in.
745pm - Wolves v Oldham - 1.72 home
8pm - Belgium v Japan - 1.72 home
Standout stats
- This is an international friendly and both sides have identical recent friendly records, 2 wins, 2 defeats and a draw.
- My gut instinct is that Belgium must be favoured here if playing anything near a full first team.
- In 2013, Belgium beat United states and Slovakia but lost to Columbia and drew 0-0 with France. In those 2 matches they failed to score.
- Only Columbia have beaten Belgium at home in recent friendlies. Belgium have failed to score in the last 2 home friendlies so take a chance perhaps on them ending that unwelcome season today.
- Japan are far better in their home friendlies where they have 4 wins in 6. Their last 3 matches have been away from home, losing 2-0 to Serbia, 1-0 to Belarus, and drawing 2-2 with the Netherlands when the Netherlands were 2-0 up at halftime ( this was a successful DRT if you remember as I advocated laying the Netherlands if 2-0 up at halftime.)
Profitable in play opportunities
- With likely wholesale changes at halftime, ( and this counts for all friendlies today), this makes matches like this difficult to nail. We have a Belgian side without a goal in their last 2 home friendlies, and you'd hope they'd want that to end tonight.
- The Japanese did well to draw with Netherlands but perhaps pointedly their goals were scored in the 2nd half, after the Netherlands made a raft of changes.
- If 0-0 for a while, I'd chance a Belgian breakthrough at home -they want to give their friendly supporters a goal.
8pm - England v Germany - 2.48 away. 2 consecutive home friendly defeats for England?
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