9th November 2013

SUNDAY

10am - Amkar v Anzhi Makhachkala - 1.62 home

1145am  - CSKA Moscow v Terek Grozni - 1.42 home

Standout stats

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Profitable in play opportunities

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12pm - Tottenham( Spurs) v Newcastle - 1.59 home

Standout stats

•  The general rule seems to be "advantage home team" in head to heads. Spurs won the last 2 home head to heads, thanks largely to an absent Bale. The last 2 matches have been 2-1 to each side.
• Spurs are tied for 2nd place playing catch up with Arsenal. 
• Only one over 2.5 goals match this season for Spurs tells you where their priorities lie. As a consequence they are unreliable candidates for anyone looking to lay the 0-0 Halftime score.
• All wins for Spurs home or away have been either 1-0 or 2-0. Their loss to West Ham remains a mystery - coming as it did out of the blue.
• Spurs have kept 7 clean sheets in their 10 matches.
• Spurs are yet to concede at home in the first hour.
• No opponent has led at halftime yet at White Hart Lane
• Spurs have had 6 0-0's at halftime. Back 0-0 on this occasion in the halftime score market?
• A 1/3rd of Spurs goals this season are penalties and Soldado is the penalty taker.
• Newcastle don't do low scores away from home, neither do they do draws.
• Newcastle have conceded in all away matches and scored in all bar one. 
• Newcastle are yet to play the current top 4 away.
• Newcastle have kept only 3 clean sheets all season but they have scored in their last 8 matches.
• This has resulted in 6 over 2.5 goals matches in their last 7.

Profitable in play opportunities

• What a contrast. Over 2.5 goals and scoring and conceding away from home Newcastle play ever cautious solid defending Spurs who like nothing more than a 1-0, 2-0 win.
• The contrasts make this a match which is tough to predict. Granted Newcastle are yet to meet the top 4 away, but when they did it was 4-0 against Manchester City.
• It really is tough to call. Are Spurs adept enough to cope with a deliberately attack minded Newcastle who are reckless in defence?
• This should certainly not end 0-0.

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130pm - Breda v PSV - PSV and Ajax have been less than reliable . We can see this as a positive perhaps and do some contrarian trading, laying PSV if they score first? They are  1.65shots today.

Standard stats

• 6-5-1-4-4-7 scored total goals in head to heads .
• Breda have only had one draw at home, against bottom side. They did beat 2nd placed AZ 3-0 at home. 
• PSV have won only 1 of their last 5 matches. They have not won any of their last 5 away matches.
• PSV have conceded in all away matches and scored in all bar one.

Profitable in play opportunities

• The head to heads point to goals, but the recent form points to a PSV side in disarray and hardly a side you can trust to come from behind. The 1.65 might be layable. Better still, laying PSV if they lead will allow a low liability lay in the hope their woes continue away from home.

130pm - NEC Nijmegen v Ajax - 1.56 for an Ajax side who quite simply have been struggling for goals. A mid week boost with a 1-0 win against Celtic might trigger something in this young transitional Ajax side.

Standout stats

• Ajax have won the last 3 head to heads scoring 4-6-4 goals . Their odds today translate their current problems.
• NEc have only 1 win this season, in their last home match. 
• All NEC matches have featured 2+ goals.
• All home NEC matches have been over 2.5 goals.
• Against top 8 sides at home, NEC have conceded 3-4-3-5 goals. 
• NEC have scored in their last 10 matches and conceded in their last 12.
• Ajax have been playing current top 8 away from home and play bottom side today - solace there?
• Ajax have only scored 1 goal in their last 3 matches which is a concern for those expecting goals against bottom basement boys today.
• Perhaps I am being a bit too harsh as Ajax's last away matches were against Twente, PSV and AZ.
• As recently as the 6th October Ajax were scoring as expected with 3 against Utrecht.

Profitable in play opportunities.

• There are clearly issues with this current Ajax crop, in recent matches anyway. There is an argument that their away engagements have been tough - Twente, PSV and AZ amongst others. Will they gain some solace in meeting bottom side NEC who they have scored 14 goals against in their last 3 meetings?
• Your entry into this match is determined on whether you feel this match will get Ajax scoring again. I watched their woeful home 0-0 against Waalwijk ( 2nd bottom) and Ajax did everything but score. NEC this season have conceded 3-4-3-5 which fits in with Ajax's accomplishments in head to heads.There is caution in the market too, as a team who can score an average of 4+ should be around 1.2 away from home not 1.56.
• I will be able to watch this match so should hopefully gauge early on which Ajax turn up. 0-0 looks an obvious bet early on incase Ajax do not bring their scoring boots.

2pm - Dinamo Zagreb v Slaven Belupo - 1.21 home

Standout stats

•  A secondary league so approach with caution. This is the Croatian top flight. It is not featured at www.soccerstats.com
• Zagreb have won the last 5 meetings .
• Zagreb have had only 2 league defeats since February 2013 ( it could be longer but the stats only go back then).
• At home Zagreb are superb and are on a current 12 match winning run. Their only 2 aberrations recently at home were 0-0.
• Slaven have not lost their last 5 league matches.
• Away from home they are as bad as Dinamo are good.Only 1 win in 19 away matches for Slaven.

Profitable in play opportunities

• Even though this is a secondary league this is a match I would have high on my DRT list. The stats for Zagreb grab you instantly. Anything other than a comfortable home win should be expected.

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2pm - Roma v Sassuolo - Roma's winning sequence had to end sometime and the clue was in the price against Torino. A 1-1 final score. Roma return to a familiar 1.26 at home against newcomers Sassuolo who shocked Napoli recently on their visits.

Standout stats

•  We know all about Roma. Only 2 goals conceded this season in 10 wins and a 1-1 draw. 
• No Roma goals conceded at home yet.
• 2 penalties helped secure Sassuolo a 2-4 away win against Sampdoria.
• Sassuolou kept Napoli to a 1-1 and Napoli were priced even shorter than Roma.
• Sassuolo have scored and conceded in 6 of their last 7 matches. 
• Sassuolo have kept only 1 clean sheet this season. 

Profitable in play opportunities

• A return to winning ways looks obvious for Roma? They must learn from Sassuolo's 1-1 hatchet job of Napoli away. 
• Sassuolo have a tendency to score , will that scupper an obvious win to nil for Roma?
• If Sassuolo have a chance of scoring, and they score first, I think we can confidently back Roma at better odds.

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205pm - Sunderland v Man City - Man City are priced at 1.43 to beat Sunderland this afternoon. Their performance against Norwich was quite superb.

Standout stats

•  Matches are now crucial for Man City who find themselves in 5th place. They're know from yesterday's results that they'll have a chance to leapfrog some of their near rivals. Chelsea draw, Everton draw, Man Utd and Arsenal are playing each other.
• The last 2 head to heads were 1-0 Man City wins. One of the games was a friendly.
• Only a win and a draw so far for Sunderland this season. The win came in the local derby with Newcastle.
• Sunderland at home have lost 1-3 to Arsenal and Liverpool and 1-2 against Manchester United. That is a tough run of home matches and likely to get worse.
• Sunderland have not had a home draw.
• Sunderland have conceded in all matches this season. 
• There has been no 0-0 in Sunderland matches this season. 
• Manchester City have been vulnerable away from home, losing 3-2 to Cardiff, 3-2 to Aston Villa and 2-1 away to Chelsea.
• Man City's sole goalless draw this season was away to Stoke City.All other matches saw both teams score and total goals of 3-5-5-4
• Sunderland have not had a draw in 8 games and City in 6 games. 
• Man City have scored in their last 6 matches.
• Man City have conceded 8 of their 9 away goals conceded in the 2nd half.

Profitable in play opportunities

• Sunderland have only won 1 match all season so if they are winning late on, have confidence in them messing it up. Think West Brom v Chelsea yesterday.
• Both teams do tend to score and concede - look at Sunderland's scoring record in defeat to big name clubs at home and look at Man City away from home scoring and conceding.
• Teams are more likely to get something when Manchester City are away. If Sunderland score first, then back Manchester City
• Highly speculative might want to chance over 5.5 goals incase the City who played Norwich turn up today. 
• Both teams tend to avoid draws so lay a late draw.
• Man City tend to concede the most goals in the 2nd half. I would lay Man City at 2-0 or 3-0 up, if they get that far and if the scoreline is early enough.

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3pm - Academica v Academico de Viseu - 1.38 home

Standout stats

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Profitable in play opportunities

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3pm - Burton v Hereford - 1.52 home

4pm - Marseille v Sochaux  - I normally only focus on Paris St Germain in Ligue 1 but I see Marseille are playing at home and they are priced at 1.56  so this is worthy of research.

Standout stats

• This is a match between 6th and bottom which might explain the short Marseille price. Marseille go 4th with a win.
• At Sochaux, Sochaux have won the last 2 head to heads. When the matches are played in Marseille, Marseille have scored 2 goals in the last 3, winning 2 of the matches.
• Interestingly, Marseille's 3 defeats at home this season have come against top 5 sides. This match today should break that habit at the other end of the table.
• Marseille have not drawn at home yet.
• Marseille's poor recent form is down to meeting the big teams at home, and a local derby with Nice.
• Marseille have failed to score in only 2 matches all season. 
• Marseille have scored and conceded in their last 4 home matches but remember they have played 3 of the top 5 so this pattern might not continue against bottom side.
• Despite meeting strong teams at home, Marseille have scored first in 4 of their 5 home matches
• Marseille have not had a 0-0 Halftime score at home.
• As befits a side at the bottom, Sochaux have only 1 win, 4 draws and 7 defeats this season. 
• Sochaux have 5 consecutive defeats away from home. The only lost 1-0 to 4th placed Nantes but then conceded 5 and 5 against 8th and 11th. Marseille sit 6th at the moment.
• Sochaux have scored in all bar one away match.
• Sochaux have never led at halftime.
• Sochaux concede an equal number of goals in either half which might suggest a lay of 0-0 Halftime.

Profitable in play opportunities

• Marseille's home defeats and poor recent form has been put down to playing top 5 teams. This is bottom side today and there is an expectation that the home team will win.
• Sochaux might score today so hope they score first.
• 2-0, 2-1 scorelines look apparent of we assume a Marseille win.
• If Sochaux are leading in the first half, lay them in the Halftime market.

4pm - Sporting Gijon v Sabadell - 1.55 home

4pm - Valencia v Valladolid - 1.51 home

Standout stats

•  Only 2 recent head to heads see both team scoring, a score draw and a 2-1 to Valencia
• Valencia are really struggling this term. Have they sold their main assets?
• 4 of Valencia's wins have been 1-0.
• Valencia have scored in all home matches , and their 2 most recent were 1-2 losses.
• All wins so far at home have come against teams 13th and lower. They play a Valladolid side who are currently 18th,
• Valencia have scored in all matches this season.
• Valencia have only had one draw all season, but with so many 1-0 scorelines, they are only a goal away from another draw. 
• Valladolid seem rather straightforward this season. They lose to top 5 teams home and away, score draw against 7th - 14th inclusive ( this could include 10th placed Valencia), and beat 17th and lower.
• Only 2 wins for Valladolid all season, they have failed to score more than 1 goal away from home which is the cause of their failures ( albeit against lowly Raoy).

Profitable in play opportunities

• Something has happened to usual perennial 3rd placed Valencia this season. That said they have scored in all matches this season so expect the same today.
• Valladolid don't seem to regularly score more than 1 goal away from home which means that the score draw is on, yet again. 
• Valencia should be more confident today as their home wins have come against 13th and lower, and Valladolid are 18th.
• There is a chance that we could get a 0-0 halftime score lay in today.

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410pm - Man Utd v Arsenal - 2.36 home
This is a great high profile match, but as far as being a betting medium, well that's a different matter given the changes at United and , indeed, the positive changes at Arsenal.
I will only research as this is such a high profile match.
Standout stats

• Both teams have scored in the last 4 meetings but remember that was under Ferguson and his particular managerial style. Moyes is obviously completely different .
• Where is that Old Trafford invincibility? It's a horror show. A loss to West Brom, a draw with Southampton and alast gasp unconvincing 3-2 win over Stoke . 
• Against the current top 4, United have managed 2 draws this season at home, 1-1 and 0-0.
• All of Man Utd's wins this season home and away have come against the current bottom 7 so they may be flattering to deceive.
• Van Persie and Rooney have both scored in United's last 2 matches.
• United have kept only 2 clean sheets this season. 
• United failed to score against Liverpool and Chelsea earlier in the season.
• United have scored in their last 7 matches and conceded in their last 6 matches ( hmmm, which team scored and conceded a lot last year - that's right- Everton!)
• Arsenal only lost their opening match and since then have won 8 and drawn 1 v West Brom.
• Again Arsenal's form is flattering, as they have only beaten bottom 7 sides largely home and away ( Liverpool and Spurs at home notwithstanding).
• In all bar one away match, Arsenal conceded.
• Arsenal have kept 2 clean sheets and have scored in their last 10 matches.
• Arsenal have not had a 0-0 this season.

Profitable in play opportunities.

• I always tend to look for last gasp winners in these high profile matches. Laying the draw ( if a draw) very very late could pay off.
• The stats are tough to read. Both sides have generally done their winning against current bottom 7 sides. My instincts tell me Arsenal are in far better shape this season and their 2-0 win against Liverpool impressed.
• United have drawn 2 matches against current top 4 this season , 1-1 and 0-0. 
• United have scored and conceded in their last 6 matches which suggests that both sides could score as they have done in the last 2 meetings. 
• Historically Arsenal have always faltered against United / Chelsea/ Manchester City . Is that conquered this season? They beat Dortmund away, and have beaten Liverpool. A match to watch and enjoy but not a DRT match.

415pm - Kuban Krasnodar v Volga Nyzhnyi Novgorod - 1.54 home

5pm - Stromsgodset v Haugesund - 1.34 home

5pm - Widzew Lodz v Legia Warsaw - 1.63 away

530pm - Olympiakos (Oly) v PAOK - 1.67 home

Standout stats

•  As befits the current top teams in Greece, head to heads have been tight. After winning 2, Olympiakos have drawn the last 2 meetings 1-1 and 0-0.
• This is 1st v 2nd. 
• 4 consecutive home wins for Olympiakos scoring 2-4-5-6. Interestingly, they have scored only 2-1-0 home and away against top 6 sides.
• Olympiakos rarely concede more than 1 goal a match, and they haven't done yet this season. How will PAOK win? A 0-1?
• Oly have failed to score only once this season ( 0-0) and have only conceded in 3 matches.
• PAOK have only lost one match away from home, a 2-0 loss at 6th place. They are yet to meet the top 5 teams away from home. 
• PAOK have scored in their last 8 matches and Olympiakos in their last 5 matches.
• PAOK are on a 4 match winning streak, scoring 2 in each match.  Like Oly, they have failed to score in only 1 match this season.

Profitable in play opportunities

• PAOK have already made me a nice bit of cash, laying the draw at 1.09 when they scored a late winner .
• Olympiakos do not tend to concede more than 1 goal. If they concede first, expect them to get a goal back, but perhaps cover the 0-1. 
• It is advantage Oly for me in this match which is likely to be a tight match. 
• Look for late goal action. Oly are renowned for it ( a recent late goal v Panathanaikos) and PAOK are getting in on the act ( late goal v Ergotelis).
• Do note that Oly's stats are not as strong as last season where I had 2 consecutive 1.04 lays come in. They scored in all matches that season bar one late match. This season they have already failed to score in one match.

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530pm - Volyn v Dinamo Kiev - 1.44 away

Standout stats

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Profitable in play opportunities

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6pm - Admira Wacker v Red Bull Salzburg - 1.24 away

730pm - Guimaraes v Porto - This is a Portugeuse league cup match and Porto are 1.46 favourites.

Standout stats

•  Porto have won the last 6 head to heads keeping 4 consecutive clean sheets.
• Guimaraes like this cup competition, they have not lost any of the last 8, and won their last 4, including against Benfica.
• Guimaraes have taken 4 of their Cup matches into extra time. A team "up for the cup"
• In the league, Guimaraes have lost 3 of their last 4 matches 1-0.
• In May 2011, at home in the cup, Porto beat Guimaraes 2-6.
• Porto have drawn their last 2 matches in all competitions 1-1. 
• Porto have kept clean sheets in their last 4 wins in the cup. Their last 3 defeats came against benfica,Academica, Sporting Braga.

Profitable in play opportunities

• Despite the odds suggesting Porto will win, it must be noted that guimaraes are "up for the cup". 
• As a cup match, this match should not take priority even if it includes Porto. Do note that head to heads are rather convincingly in Porto's favour .

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730pm - Zulte-Waregem v Waasland-Beveren - 1.45 home

Standout stats

•  Zulte Waregem have a reputation for goals.
• Zulte have won the last 4 head to heads without conceding. 3-0 and 2-0 wins at home.
• Zulte have scored in all matches this season making them good DRT candidates.
• Only one defeat for Zulte this season was a 5-2 v Genk who are 2nd .
• 6 wins and a 1-1 draw at home for Zulte. Zulte are playing 2nd bottom today and have scored 4 and 2 against bottom 5 sides.
• Zulte have only kept 3 clean sheets this season.
• Beveren have only had one win this season. 
• Beveren have conceded in all away matches this season. They conceded 2 against top side Standard, albeit in a 2-2 draw. Beveren have scored 2 in their last 2 away matches
• Beveren have kept only 3 clean sheets this season.

Profitable in play opportunities

• Both teams could reasonably score today. Beveren have just scored 2 goals in their last 2 away matches including against top side. Zulte though do tend to keep a clean sheet historically.
• If Beveren do score first, we should have every confidence in Zulte gaining parity and pushing on.
• Both sides have only kept 3 clean sheets all season, so expect goals and no 0-0. 

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745pm - Fiorentina v Sampdoria - I like Fiorentina this season, especially as a DRT team. You want to see teams who have goals in them and Fiorentina have plenty. They are quoted at 1.43 today.

Standout stats

•  Fiorentina have not lost any of the last 3 head to heads. They beat Sampdoria 0-3 away in April 2013.
• Fiorentina are 6th placed and Sampdoria struggling in 17th place.
• Fiorentina have only really lost to top 4 sides this season and both 1-2 scorelines suggest they were competitive. 
• Fiorentina have scored and conceded in all home matches this season. 
• Fiorentina have conceded 3 goals in their last 3 home matches, against 2nd, 3rd and 13th.
• Fiorentina have only failed to score in one match all season, but they have kept only 3 clean sheets.
• Fiorentina have scored 7 goals in the last 1/2 hour of matches at home. 
• Rossi is the key goalscorer for Fiorentina. Check to see he is playing. 
• There has only been a single 0-0 in both of these teams' matches this season.
• Sampdoria have been susceptible to conceding 2+ goals. They have done so in 7 matches this season.
• Sampdoria have played 4 matches home and away against top 8 sides and have lost them all without scoring. 
• Sampdoria have kept only 1 clean sheet this season.

Profitable in play opportunities

• Advantage Fiorentina historically. 
• 75% of Sampdoria's goals have been conceded 2nd half away from home. If Sampdoria lead at any stage, they look vulnerable, particularly as they have been susceptible to conceding at least 2 goals.
• Fiorentina are likely to score at some stage as they have failed to score in only 1 match and Sampdoria have only kept a clean sheet.
• 
  

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745pm - Juventus v Napoli - I want to research this match as these are 2 good Seria A teams although I am not sure as yet what DRT angle I can provide . Juventus find themselves rather surprising as 1.78 home favourites here against a renewed Napoli side under Benitez and with a raft of quality high profile signings.

Standout stats

•  An almost identical season for both sides. Both lost a match 4 matches ago, and both sides have had a single 1-1 draw. 
• Juventus have a perfect home record but are yet to play teams above them ( they do so today with 2nd placed Napoli). 
• Juventus have scored 2+ goals at home in each match .
• Interestingly Juventus's dropped points, away, were against 4th and 6th. 
• 3 consecutive clean sheets for Juventus but prior, they conceded 2 against AC Milan and 4 against Fiorentina ( Juve were 0-2 up at halftime). Are Juventus vulnerable to the better sides this season?
• No opponent has led at halftime at Juventus.
• Tevez and Vidal key to Juventus home goalscoring.
• Napoli won all away matches bar their meeting with top side Roma.
• In all other away matches, Napoli scored 2 goals minimum.
• Napoli have scored at least 2 goals in 9 matches.
• The way these 2 have been scoring against other teams, 0-0 Halftime scoring has been good. But the worry is when 2 big teams clash that this becomes a one off match rather than reflective of form.
• Napoli have scored first in 4 of their 5 away matches.

Profitable in play opportunities

• These 2 are tough to split which makes the 1.76 about Juventus a bit too short for me. 
• Juventus have scored 2 at home and Napoli tend to score 2 more often than they don't .
• Will one of these 2 solid attacking units conjure up a goal before halftime? If you think so, lay 0-0 Halftime score as late as possible.

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8pm - Betis v Barcelona - 1.28 away

Standout stats

•  Current top v 2nd bottom at time of writing.
• Barcelona have now kept 4 away clean sheets including a very rare 0-0 against the team just a place above today's.
• Away from home Betis have lost 5-0 to 2nd and 2-1 to 3rd. They are yet to play the top 3 at home but beat 4th placed 1-0.
• Barcelona tend to struggle at Betis, 2-2 and 1-2 wins in their 2 recent meetings.
• Away from home, Barca have not conceded against the bottom 6.
• Barcelona do not tend to concede first so DRT's are not as plentiful as with Real Madrid.

Profitable in play opportunities

• Just a quick look really as we know Barcelona very well. There is a chance that their clean sheets against bottom 6 away might end today. 
• Barcelona do not tend to concede first so I am not sure where any DRT opportunity would come from, unless it was 1-1 late on perhaps. 
• Leo Messi has not scored in 5 league matches ( yes he scored mid week) and this is an eternity for someone of his prowess. So perhaps a goalscorer bet on the magician.

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Other matches of interest

930am - Spartak Moscow v Zenit St Petersburg - 2.16 away

11am - Espanyol v Sevilla - 2.44 home

1130am - Zwolle v Twente - 2.12 away

130pm - Standard v Club Brugge - 1.83 home

2pm - Chievo v AC Milan - 2. away

2pm - Parma v Lazio - 2.36 home

330pm - Feyenoord v AZ Alkmaar - 1.94 home

410pm - Swansea v Stoke - 1.99 home

5pm - Fenerbahce v Galatasaray - 2.1 home

5pm - Genk v Anderlecht - 2.7 home

5pm - Lillestrom v Rosenborg - 1.7 away

5pm - Olhanense v Braga - 1.8 away

6pm - Villarreal v Atl Madrid - 2.14 away

8pm - St Etienne v Lyon - 2.16 home