thursday

It was a rather straightforward night last night for Uruguay and Mexico in 2 play-offs which were huge mismatches .

Today's football comes from what I term " secondary" sources. We begin with under 19 internationals.

230pm - Hungary U19 v England U19
England U19 are 1.81 shots to prevail today.  I can find no record of this match under the Euro u19 Championship menu at www.soccerway.com, so the presumption must be that it is a friendly.
Indeed it is.
It seems England u19 overall have not lost a match since 2011. They have though had 4 1-1 draws in their last 7 matches.
Away from home, England u19 have recorded 7 wins and a draw.

Only 1 win in last 7 for Hungary u19's and at home they have lost 3 and drawn 1 of their last 4 matches.

This match is not a must win and for England u19 coach Noel Blake it's more about gaining experience abroad, so bear in mind it is not a competitive fixture.
With Hungary u19 only beating the likes of Finland u19, San Marino u19 and Faroe Islands u19, there is a feeling the England odds are quite generous, but of course they do factor in the friendly nature of this match.

3pm - Norway U19 v San Marino U19

Norway u19 are 1.03 shots. What this means , quite simply, is that goals are expected and we should be looking to the goals markets for any value in-play.

Standout stats

• This is a competitive UEFA u19 Championship match.
• Norway u19 are in good form, and importantly, in good goalscoring form. They have recently scored 3 against bothe Germany u19 and Cyprus u19. 
• Against minnows, the numbers 4,5 and 6 tend to crop up. Most recently Norway u19 scored 6 against Kazahkstan. Perhaps this is the maximum goal tally we should aim for today? 
• San Marino u19 have failed to score in 11 of their last 12 UEFA u19 Championship matches so think immediately of a win to nil for Norway u19. This tactic will allow you some good mileage with a correct score punt. I'm afraid the Betfair Correct Score market does not traditionally go over a 3-3 scoreline, so perhaps a bet with the bookmakers, that you can trade out using the any unquoted correct score at Betfair might be the way to go?
• The maximum San Marino u19 have conceded recently has been 6, and they have conceded 4 goals in 3 of their last 4 matches.

Profitable in-play opportunities.

• We seem to be naturally drawn to a 6-0 maximum scoreline today and that is a good starting point. It is all about motivation for the Norwegians. Note that they did concede 2 against Kazakhstan u19, but it seems San Marino u19 have a strong trend towards not scoring.
• The only other value here from a DRT perspective will come if the match is 0-0 or 1-0 at halftime. We can then load up on over 5.5 goals, as long as the market has enough liquidity.

From the Under 19's we move temporarily to the under 21's

4pm - Hungary U21 v Albania U21

Hungary u21 are 1.28 shots to win this match. 

Standout stats

• This forms part of a UEFA Under 21 Championship so is a competitive match. 
• Albania u21 have no points from Group 4, but Hungary u21 are on 6 points and will temporarily go 2nd with a win today.
• When these teams last met in June this year, Albania u21 took the lead with a penalty and Hungary u21 went on to win. We can only hope for a repeat of that scenario today which would greatly help DRT profits. History is there. It shows Hungary u21 can come from behind.
• Hungary u21 have only had one draw ( 0-0) since November 2005 in this competition. That is quite a stat. 
• Hungary u21 lost their last 2 matches against Austria u21 ( 2-0) and Spain u21 ( 1-0).
• Since 2012, at home, Hungary u21 have won 4 and lost to Austria u21
• With their next match against Spain u21, Hungary u21 will be desparate for 3 points today.
• Albania u21 seem to be perennial strugglers in the competition, with one win  ( 4-3 v Moldova u21) since September 2009. 
• Albania u21 have lost their last 6 matches and have failed to score in their last 3 defeats.
• Defeats at home to Austria u21  ( 0-1 own goal) and Bosnia u21 ( 0-1 penalty goal) might suggest a defensive bent for Austria u21. Whether that can be replicated away from home is another matter?
• 11 of Albania u21's last 12 matches away from home in this competition have been over 2.5 goals. 
• Albania u21 have conceded 4 goals in each of their last 2 away matches.

Profitable in play opportunities.

• Motivation should play a factor today for Hungary u21. As their next match is against Spain u21 and the inference there is that they are highly unlikely to win, today's match affords them an opportunity of securing 3 points and pressurising current 2nd placed Austria u21.
• Do note the last time these 2 met, Albania u21 scored first. Be ready and hope for this to recur today.
• Hungary u21 don't seem to do draws in this competition, so note that if there is a late draw, we can lay it in the hope this pattern continues.
• Albania u21 seem to blow hot and cold. At home, they have been most unlucky, losing 0-1 to an own goal and a penalty, but note their failure to score.  
• Will Albania u21 continue with their over 2.5 goals trend in away matches? That over 2.5 goals only came in when they last met Hungary u21 because Albania u21 scored first!

4pm - Ludogorets v Beroe Stara Za - 1.35 home

This is a Bulgarian Cup match so treat with caution.

Standout stats

• Ludogorets have scored 3 goals in 3 of the last 4 league meetings with Beroe.
• Ludogorets have had only 3 draws in all competitions since May 2013.
• Ludogorets have won 7 of their last 8 cup matches.
• Loss, Win, Loss , Win at home in the cup.
• Beroe have only had 1 draw in their last 13 matches in all competitions.
• They have won their last 2 home matches to nil ( but are playing away today).
• Beroe are not good travelers. They have only won 2 of their last 9 away matches, and failed to score in 5 of their last 7 away matches.
• Beroe are unbeaten in the cup since November 2011 ( when Ludogorets beat them 0-1 in extra time).
• Beroe have scored 3-3-5 in their last 5 cup matches.
• Since 2012, Beroe have scored plenty of goals away from home in the cup, but the level of opponents is questionable.

Profitable in play opportunities.

• This is a difficult match to get an angle into. Perhaps the avoidance of the draw, generally, by these 2 sides is something we can exploit in play.
• What do we make of Ludogoret's ability to score 3 in 3 of their last 4 league matches against Beroe, but then fail to score in 90 minutes in a cup match?
• This is not a match to prioritise.

6pm - Cordoba v Atl Madrid - 1.68 away  -there is little point in researching this friendly as the vast majority of the Atl Madrid team are away on International duty.

7pm - Portugal U19 v Luxembourg U19 - 1.05 home

A 1.05 quote should have you clammering for goals.

Standout stats

• This is a UEFA U19 Championship match.
• This is Group 8 and Portugal and Norway are set to dominate against Luxembourg and San Marino
• Against the right opponents, there's goals in this Portugal u19 side. They have scored, at times, 7 ( v Israel), 5 ( Israel again), 7 ( Bulgaria), 4 ( Czechs, Netherlands and Lithuania). We have evidence of goals to back up this 1.05 quote.
• Portugal u19 have lost only 2 matches at home since November 2009.
• They have scored 2+ goals in 10 of their last 12 matches.
• Luxembourg u19 have lost all of their UEFA U19 Championship matches. They have failed to score in 7 of their last 9 matches.
• Away from home Luxembourg u19 tend to concede 3 or 5 goals ( 3 goals on 3 occasions, 5 on 3 occasions out of 8 matches).

Profitable in play opportunities.

• Any sustained 0-0 will be an anomoly you can hopefully exploit in play.
• 3-0, 5-0, 7-0 would be my speculative correct scores today .Luxembourg u19 have scored in 2 of their last 3 away matches but generally they find it hard to score.

730pm - Bosnia U21 v Spain U21 - 1.23 away

Standout stats

• This is a UEFA U21 Championship match.
• Spain lead group 4 on 12 points, and Bosnia are back in 4th place on 6 points.
• There was a match between these 2 on 10th October 2013 which finished 3-2 to Spain.3-2 was rather flattering to Bosnia as it was 3-1 until the 86th minute.
• Bosnia u21 found their feet in 2012 with a run of 4 wins in 5 matches. But this has since ended with a run of 4 defeats ( 4-1 away to Hungary, 0-2 at home to Austria, and 3-2 against Spain), before winning again 0-1 away to Albania u21. The latter is a rather poor result given the opponents and the fact the goal was a penalty.
• Bosnia at home on 4 and drew 1 of their 2012+ matches before a 0-2 loss to Austria u21.
• 5-3-3-4-4-4-0 scored in those home matches by Bosnia, against the likes of Germany u21 and Greece u21 ( the other teams minnows)
• 19 wins and a 0-0 draw for Spain u21 in their last 20 matches says it all really.
• Spain u21 have conceded 2 goals in 3 of their last 5 matches - an unwelcome pattern?In those 3 matches though, the 2nd goal was scored after a comfortable lead of 2+ goals for Spain u21. A simple case of lack of concentration for the 90 minutes.
• 12 wins and a 0-0 draw away from home for Spain u21.They have conceded in 3 of their last 4 away matches, conceding 2 in each of their last 2 aways.

Profitable in play opportunities

• I was quite struck by Bosnia's ability to consistently score 3+ goals ( until they met Austria), at home and that may help our cause if they can score first today against a Spain u21 side who have the winning habit. 
• Spain u21 are complacent at the end of the match, and if leading comfortably, we can lay them at very short odds in the hope they continue to concede late goals. If they repeat what they did in their last meeting with Bosnia ( 3-1 turns into 3-2 late on), we would most likely be laying at 1.01 and have a chance of some positive price movement.

745pm - England U21 v Finland U21 - 1.21 home
In September this year, Finland u21 held England u21 to a 1-1 draw and this was after Finland u21 scored first.
Standout stats

• England and Wales are top of Group 1 with 10 points each, with Finland 3rd on 8 points. It is a rather tight Group , with 5 teams separated by 3 points. To win, when expected to win, therefore becomes of paramount importance.
• England u21 had a particularly rough patch in June this year with 3 consecutive defeats , scoring only 1 goal. That is in the past now. 3 wins and a draw follow. That said, England u21 have been playing teams they are expected to beat, in San Marino , Moldova and Lithuania.
• England u21 have not had a competitive draw since June 2009 at home. Their last 7 victories at home resulted in clean sheets, although there have been 2 recent losses at home in that poor period in June ( although I don't think these were strictly home matches, England were in Israel and were first named on the betting coupon, hence appearing as the home side).
• Finland u21 blow hot and cold. They have just suffered a shock away defeat to Moldova u21 ( 1-0), and drew with Lithuania u21. THese matches fell between the impressive 1-1 draw with England u21 and 1-5 defeat of Wales u21. There is a goal threat there lying dormant it would seem.
• Finland u21's 4 UEFA matches away from home have seen good defending. They have conceded only 1 goal maximum in those matches, winning 3 and losing to Moldova U21

Profitable in play opportunities.

• England u21 have a new manager now, in Gareth Southgate. They have a superb home record under a previous regime where they consistently keep clean sheets. Will that continue?
• Finland u21 did score first in their last meeting with England u21. IF they do so again, I feel they can be layed.
• There are goals in the Finland u21 side. 5 against Wales ( who are joint top of Group 1) was impressive.
• It's a tough match to get a really strong angle on.

750pm - France U21 v Armenia U21 - 1.08 home
France and Iceland dominate Group 10 even with a game ( or even 2) in hand. Armenia also have a game or 2 in hand over 2nd and 3rd placed teams, but the odds today suggest they will get nothing out of this match.
Standout stats

• France u21 have won 13 of their last 15 matches, losing away to Slovakia and Norway. 
• France u21 kept 10 clean sheets in wins, but have conceded in their last 3 wins, all from September 2013 onwards.
• France u21 have won their last 7 home matches without conceding.
• Armenia u21 have lost 3 of their last 4 matches, losing 1-4 at home to France u21.Their wins were only 0-1 v Kazahkstan u21 and Wales u21
• Armenia u21's last 5 away matches have been very tight indeed, 0-1, 1-1, 0-1, 0-0, 0-1 but some of the teams included Andorra, Montenegro and Kazakhstan.

Profitable in play opportunities.

• 4 seems to be the magic number for France u21. They have scored 4 in their last 2 matches.
• France's home record suggests a win to nil, so 4-0 starters, perhaps 4-1 incase Armenia u21 chip in?
• Armenia u21's recent away matches have been very tight but arguably this is a step-up in class tonight.
• 
  

8pm - Italy U21 v Northern Ireland ( N.I.) U21 - 1.15 home
Italy have 2 games in hand over leaders of Group 9, Belgium, so will be seeking the win against point-less Northern Ireland tonight.
Standout stats

• Italy have only recently lost to Belgium and Spain and beat Cyprus 2-0, Belgium (1-0 re-match) and Netherlands ( 1-0)
• Against "apparent minnows" Italy are adept at keeping clean sheets, but against the major forces it turns into a goal fest. Are N.I. really up there with Belgium and Spain? I think not.
• Italy at home have lost their last 2 matches ( the above Belgian and Spanish matches) so do not expect a 3rd consecutive home loss, particularly when priced at 1.15.
• The last 12 home wins Italy have had, have all been to nil.
• Italy u21 have not had a home draw in 12 matches.
• N.I. have lost their last 10 matches, scoring only 2 goals. The highest number of goals they seem to concede is 3.

Profitable in play opportunities

• This looks rather straightforward ( famous last words). We have an Italy side who do not concede at home when winning, against an N.I. side who have lost their last 10 match, failing to score in 8 of them.
• Perhaps begin this match with a 3-0 back bet and hope that NI do not score. Italy have lost their last 2 home matches. This should work in the favour of Italian backers and correct score backers tonight.