Tuesday, 1 April 2014

WEDNESDAY

1-1 scorelines in the Champions League is an ideal scenario for the away side. More of the same today?


1130am - Yokohama FM v Melbourne - 1.48 home
Standout stats

Profitable in-play opportunities


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2pm - Orduspor v 1461 Trabzon - 1.35 home
Standout stats

Profitable in-play opportunities

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5pm - Olympiakos v PAOK - 1.53 home
Standout stats
  • this is a greek cup game
  • Draw, Draw, Oly Win, PAOK win latest in head to heads. Revenge is in the air for Olympiakos ( Oly)
Olympiakos
  • 4 defeats in 7 matches with the Man Utd win the catalyst for this poor form.
  • only 3 defeats since February 2013 at home, 2 were in European competitions and the other a derby win for panathanaikos
  • undedefeated in the cup since 2012
  • undefeated in the cup at home since 2005
PAOK
  • unbeaten in 6 in all competitions. Have scored and conceded in those 6 matches
  • only 1 win in 9 matches away from home, with 3 consecutive draws.
  • 6 consecutive wins in the cup -wins came only v 3 teams though
  • 3 consecutive away wins without conceding. 

Profitable in-play opportunities

  • Olympiakos have an excellent record at home, is that enough to swing it today against the old foe who have a win last time these 2 met. Oly have been poor since they beat Manchester United and will need to return to form. They only won 1-0 at the weekend when priced at 1.11 so are in holiday mode it seems
  • PAOK are poor recently away from home in all competitions. Enough to oppose them?
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530pm - Roma v Parma - 1.47 home
Standout stats
  • a rescheduled match, abandoned after a waterlogged pitch
  • Roma have won 4 of the last 5 meetings
  • 1st v 6th. 11 points shy of Juventus could become 8 points shy with a win. 8 matches to go til the end of the season is ample time for Roma to plug the gap, albeit hoping on a few Juventus draws/defeats .Parma have lively hopes of a top 5 finish
Roma
  • only 2 defeats all season
  • 4 consecutive wins.
  • a solid run of home clean sheets has ended with the concession of 2 and 1 goals in the last 2 matches
  • have failed to score in only 5 matches this season
  • Roma have scored 2 consecutive 90 minute goals now so watch out for late late action
  • are unbeaten at home
  • 5 0-0's at halftime at home is about a 1/3rd of matches
  • have conceded only 1 goal first half at home
  • no opponent has scored first at Roma or led at halftime
Parma
  • 2 consecutive away defeats to Juventus and lazio 
  • parma have scored and conceded in their last 4 matches
  • 3 90 minute goals have been scored in Parma's last 5 matches
  • have failed to score in only 6 matches all season
  • some high scoring matches away to top 10 teams , 2-1, 0-1, 2-2, 3-3, 0-4, 3-2, 3-2, 2-4 is very consistent in the amount of goals per match
  • have scored in their last 10 away matches
  • have scored 11 goals in the last 1/4 hour of matches
Profitable in-play opportunities
  • speculate on some 90th minute action today given the prevalence of goals at that time in both of these team's recent matches
  • only 2 defeats all seasons favours Roma. Both teams could reasonably score today given that Parma's matches away to top 10 have seen 2-1, 2-2, 3-3, 3-2, 3-2, 2-4 scorelines. Speculators might like to average these and back over 4.5 goals /lay under 4.5 goals particularly if 0-0 for a while
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545pm - Go Ahead Eagles v Breda - 2.12 home
Standout stats

Profitable in-play opportunities

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545pm - Heracles v Feyenoord - 1.83 away
Standout stats
  • 10th v 2nd. 10th place is only 6 points from relegation. Feyenoord will be hoping for an Ajax slip up or 2 and they must keep their side of the bargain by winning
  • Feyenoord were unbeaten in 5 head to heads until the last 2 where they lost in the league and drew in the cup
Heracles
  • 2 consecutive 2-1 wins really needed given how close they were to the bottom sides
  • this is not the norm though. 2 wins in 10 prior to those 2 matches
  • have failed to score in only 1 of their last 15 matches
  • only 3 clean sheets all season
  • only 1 win v teams above them at home and only 2 wins v 14th and above at home
  • Did score draw against 2nd and 3rd
  • have scored in their last 8 at home and conceded in their last 6 at home
  • only 2 0-0's at halftime at home
Feyenoord
  • only 4 defeats in 26 matches 
  • only 1 defeat in 9 matches
  • have won their last 3 matches without conceding
  • have scored and conceded in 6 of their last 7 away matches
  • failed to score in only 1 match this season
  • only 2 defeats v top 10 came v 1st and 9th and both were 2-1
  • 11 out of 14 away matches saw both teams score
  • have scored in their last 15 matches
  • only 2 0-0's at halftime away
  • have scored 13 away goals in the first 1/2 hour
Profitable in-play opportunities
  • Feyenoord are statistically likely to score, so bear that in mind if this is 0-0 or Heracles is leading.
  • Heracles have a good chance of scoring too as they have only failed to score in 1 of their last 15 matches and score drew 2nd and 3rd at home.
  • Only 4 defeats in 26 matches for Feyenoord suggests that statistically they have more of a chance of winning or drawing today
  • Chance a 0-0 halftime score lay as both teams could score, and Feyenoord really get out of the blocks away from home

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545pm - Twente v ADO Den Haag - 1.29 home
Standout stats
  • both teams have scored in all bar one of the last 7 head to heads
  • ADO won the last match 3-2 so it looks like a revenge mission today for Twente
  • 5th v 13th. Ajax seem assured of the title but 2nd place is very much up for grabs. ADO den Haag are only 3 points clear of the relegation zone
Twente
  • only 5 defeats all season but 2 in their last 3 matches, both came away. If they'd have won those, then it would be the title they'd be contesting
  • have failed to score in only 4 matches all season
  • only 7 clean sheets this season and have only had 2 clean sheets in 20 matches
  • unbeaten at home, with draws v top and bottom sides and all wins v 7th to 15th inclusive
  • have scored in their last 13 homes
  • 64% of home matches over 3.5 goals
  • only 4 0-0's at halftime at home
  • prolific at home, 15 first half and 22 2nd half goals 
ADO
  • as we see from strugglers, a tendency to put together an unbeaten run at the right time. Unbeaten in 7 
  • have scored and conceded in their last 5 matches with 3 1-1 scorelines in their last 4
  • only 3 clean sheets this season
  • only 1 win away v top 10
  • failed to score v 3rd, 4th, 6th, 7th
  • 4 0-0's at halftime away from home
  • only 1 0-0 away from home
  • have conceded a whopping 12 goals in the last 1/4 hour of the first half away
Profitable in-play opportunities
  • both sides with equal motivation for 3 points and at this time of the season we do see the odd Palace 1 Chelsea 0 type of scoreline.
  • ADO should concede at some stage with only 3 clean sheets all season.
  • Twente are unbeaten at home so that is a decent angle in.
  • If this match is 0-0 coming into the 30th minute, lay the 0-0 halftime score 
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545pm - Waalwijk v Ajax - 1.35 away
Standout stats
  • Ajax usually win head to heads bar a 0-0 last time these 2 met
  • 16th v top. Such is the tightness at the bottom, Waalwijk on 30 points are 6 points shy of a top 10 spot! Ajax have an 8 point cushion, and will that engender Olympiakos-like complacency?
Waalwijk
  • a run of 5 without a win, ended with a 0-1 last time out.
  • have scored and conceded in 6 of their last 7 home matches
  • failed to score in only 3 all season
  • only 6 clean sheets this season
  • WOW! Have beaten 2nd,m 3rd and 4th and drawn with 5th at home
  • scored and conceded in 11 of 14 home matches
  • have scored in all home matches
  • only 3 0-0's at halftime at home
  • have scored 10 home goals in the last 1/4 hour
Ajax
  • unbeaten in 17 matches and only 3 defeats all season
  • A 0-0 draw last away match. Surely not a 2nd consecutive 0-0 away?
  • failed to score in only 4 matches all seaosn
  • much more vulnerable away from home but have beaten 15th, 17th and 18th
  • 3 0-0's at halftime away
Profitable in-play opportunities
  • Beware Waalwijk at home to top 5, they are unbeaten. The 0-0 away to ajax is proof of some tactic which works re the big boys ( so why not employ it in all matches then?)
  • Both sides could reasonably score here today, although a 0-0 needs respecting, it is unlikely to re-occur.
  • an intriguing match given Waalwijk's home form v top sides. Recent form though points to Ajax not losing.
  • You might want to back 0-0 pre-match as insurance incase the 0-0 of last meeting and Ajax;s last away match surfaces
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745pm - Hearts v Aberdeen - 1.57 away
Standout stats
  • Well, well, Hearts have won the last 2 head to heads 2-1 and 1-3
  • there has been a red card in the last 2 head to heads
  • 12th v 3rd. Hearts deducted 15 points at the start of the season so this is a pointless exercise this season
  • Aberdeen have 2nd place available 
Hearts
  • 6 wins all season for all their pre-season woes.
  • 2 wins at home in the last 4.
  • only 4 clean sheets this season
  • 8 at home without a draw
  • 5 0-0's at halftime at home is 1/3rd of matches
  • have scored first in only 3 of 15 home matches
Aberdeen
  • 2 consecutive 1-1 draws is like dropping 4 points
  • scored and conceded in 5 of the last 6
  • have failed to score in 5 this season
  • only 1 win in their last 4 away matches
  • have scored in their last 10 away matches
  • 8 0-0's at halftime away is 53% of away matches
  • have scored 17 goals in the last 1/2 hour of away matches

Profitable in-play opportunities
  • only 4 clean sheets all season for Hearts suggests they will concede at some point. Aberdeen are statistically likely to score first in a match where both teams have a chance of scoring.
  • watch out for late antics from Aberdeen. 17 away goals scored in the last 1/2 hour.
  • The halftime 0-0 stats are high for these 2 so I would not be laying 0-0 halftime score 
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745pm - Paris St-G v Chelsea - 2.06 home
Standout stats
  • another toughie to get an angle into. 
PSG
  • 9 consecutive wins in all competitions featuring 7 clean sheets
  • 5 consecutive wins at home in all competitions, scoring at least 2 goals in each.
  • only 1 defeat in 16 CL matches came against benfica
  • unbeatena at home since 2012 in the CL
Chelsea
  • only 5 wins in 10 in all competitions includes that customary 1-0 loss before the Champions League
  • only 1 wins in 6 in all competitions away from home
  • only Basel have beaten Chelsea recently in the Champions League ( CL)
  • loss and draw in last 2 CL matches

Profitable in-play opportunities
  • PSG need to keep a clean sheet, Chelsea need to score, that's the bottom line. The research hasn't really brought anything up.

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745pm - Peterborough v Colchester - 1.66 home
I have learnt my lesson delving into these lesser leagues. But that's not to say I won't investigate this match if Colchester contrive to score first or lead 0-2. Also look for 0-0 at halftime. We would expect goals surely if a team is priced at 1.66.

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745pm - Real Madrid v Dortmund - 1.38 home
Standout stats
  • this should be a cracker with 2 very attacking teams. Real are likely to score  - they have scored 6-4-2-2-4-2-6-3 in recent CL matches
  • Dortmund have scored and conceded in 5 of their last 6 matches
  • 6 consecutive home wins for Real Madrid in the CL
  • Dortmund have won their last 3 away matches in the CL 1-2, 1-2, 2-4
Profitable in-play opportunities
  • There should be goals here surely? Both teams to score and Real Madrid quite simply out to outscore Dortmund over 2 legs. This should not be a 0-0 cautious affair unless Real madrid have a tactical by-pass.
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