Tuesday, 1 April 2014

TUESDAY

Quite happy overall with the research in what was admittedly a tough set of matches last night. The scenarios I envisioned seem to come to pass. And Inter was a goal away from over 4.5 goals, albeit not in the way I imagined ( 2-2 final result). Poor old Betis missed a penalty in the 90th minute to claim a much needed point.
West Ham were indeed favoured against Sunderland.
Did anyone lay the Hamsters at 1.18 when 0-2 up ( being away and 0-2 up !!) ?
CSKA and Fenerbahce won with the ease which I expected , both 3 goals

On to today and it's a quiet day in a loud Champions League night. I cannot research the Champions League matches as they are unique, suffice to say I think Barca are far too short, and United are still as unpredictable as ever. Judging by an inability to cope with manchester city and Liverpool, Man Utd should get mullered by Muller and co, but did cope admirably the last time Ze Germans came to town.

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745pm - Barcelona v Atl Madrid - 1.56 home
Standout stats
  • I cannot really research this properly as it is a 2 legged Champions League match where tactics are key.
  • Knee-jerk? Well Barcelona's odds seem far too short against the league leaders!
  • Barcelona - must keep a clean sheet and ideally score to give them an away advantage
  • Atl Madrid - must score a goal at least in order to take an away goal advantage home ( where they are strong).
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745pm - Dartford v Luton - 1.56 away
-Last time I shortlisted Luton town, they lost 0-1 at shorter odds than today. I will not research this match , suffice to say shortlist the match at www.futbol24.com and approach if Dartford score first.

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745pm - Inverness CT v Motherwell - 2.46 home
Standout stats
  • the last 4 head to heads have been won by the home team, latterly 2-0 scorelines for each side
  • 5th v 3rd. Motherwell could still finish 2nd . Inverness are 5 points away from 4th place
Inverness
  • only 4 wins in 16 matches , all without conceding.  Will Inverness keep Motherwell out ? ( as you'll see Motherwell have been good goalscorers)
  • 4 draws and a win at home in their last 5.
  • 4 0-0's at home at halftime
Motherwell
  • only 4 defeats in 16 matches
  • 14 over 2.5 goals matches in their last 17
  • have failed to score in only 2 of 16 matches
  • only 1 clean sheet in 10 matches
  • Motherwell have conceded 3-3-3-3 in their last 4 away matches
  • 5 0-0's at halftime away from home ( 1/3rd of matches)
  • no 0-0 this season
Profitable in-play opportunities
  • only 4 wins in 16 plays only 4 defeats in 16. Recent form signals Motherwell. Historic form points to the home side.
  • Will Motherwell really concede 3 goals in a 4th consecutive match away from home?
  • The odds tell you all. This is a puzzler. 
  • Do note Motherwell have not had a 0-0 this season
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745pm - Man Utd v B Munich - 1.5 away
Standout stats
  • 3-0 losses to Manchester City and Liverpool tell you that this Manchester United is a step or 2 below
  • Bayern Munich's 3-3 with Hoffenheim should be put into context. They have won the Bundesliga with 7 matches in hand and were playing the 2nd best attacking team in the Bundesliga.
  • Man Utd - somehow need to keep a clean sheet and get a goal
  • Bayern Munich - an away goal or 2 will kill the tie.
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745pm - Stevenage v Wolves - 1.75 away
Standout stats
  • an easy enough 2-0 home win for Wolves earlier in the season
  • This is bottom v top. Stevenage have 38 points. 19th has 40 points so huge motivation to catapult themselves not just from bottom place, but from the relegation zone!
  • Beware Brentford. They have a game in hand over Wolves, but wolves are top on 86 points, 6 points clear.
Stevenage
  • only 2 defeats in 9 shows battling qualities
  • were 2-0 up in their last home match and lost 2-3
  • only 2 clean sheets in their last 14 matches
  • 4 0-0's at halftime in their last 5 matches
  • beat 2nd 2-1 at home but that was back in October. lost at home to 3rd, 4th and 6th
  • 4 0-0's at halfitme at home
  • only 1 0-0 at home
  • have conceded 17 of 26 home goals in the 2nd half
Wolves
  • only 1 defeat in 14 matches
  • 5 clean sheets in their last 7 away matches
  • failed to score in only 2 of their last 16 matches
  • 9 clean sheets in their last 12 matches
  • Wolves are unbeaten home and away against 17th and lower
  • only 5 defeats all season and failed to score in 4 of them. Will Wolves really fail to score v a team with only 2 clean sheets in their last 14 matches?
  • have scored in their last 7 away matches
  • 9 0-0's at halftime away is nearly 50% of matches
  • 35 goals scored away
Profitable in-play opportunities
  • Wolves defeats this season have largely been without scoring, and they should score against a team poor at keeping clean sheets lately, ergo Wolves will not lose?
  • This may be 0-0 at halftime - it's about 50/50 with Wolves matches
  • Definitely favour Wolves and note Stevenage were 2-0 up last home match and still lost. Good DRT material!!
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