I will be following the Norwegian league this summer and hope to get to know it well. it is only 5 matches in so there are few patterns and stats to get stuck into.
We've gone all scandinavian today. Little to get enthralled about. The Europa League is likely as unreadable as the Champions League Semi finals were. I would instinctually favour Juventus tonight though.
2pm - Sirius v Elfsborg - 1.85 away
Standout stats
- this is a swedish cup match
- I think Sirius are from a lower league than top flight Elfsborg
- Sirius won 2-1 in the sole head to head in the cup last year, so watch out for a potential banana skin for the elves
- Both sides have identical cup form, winning their last 6 cup matches.
- 5 clean sheets for Elfsborg might give them the edge.
- Sirius have scored and conceded in their last 4 home ( winning) cup matches
- 3 2-1 wins in their last 4 mirrors the head to head from last year
- the last away defeat for Elfsborg in this cup was v Sirius. Since then they have kept 2 clean sheets
- yes folks, the Swedish Cup is my, ahem, achilles heel! Taking a purely statistical perspective, both teams could score today . Sirius are by no means out of it, and psychologically, Elfsborg will not want another 2-1 defeat. Perhaps a 1-2 correct score angle here, which covers either team scoring first and is still alive at 0-2.
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4pm - Levski Sofia v Lokomotiv Plovdiv - 1.36 home
Standout stats
- 3 wins in the last 4 meetings for Sofia
- this is 5th v 7th in the Bulgarian top flight
Levski Sofia
- 7 losses in their last 10 matches and you want me to back you at 1.36? Hmmmm!
- have conceded 2 goals at least in their last 4 matches
- have lost their last 2 home matches 1-2 and 1-3
Plovdiv
- only 2 wins in their last 8 matches
- have lost their last 4 away matches 4-1, 2-1, 2-0 and 3-0
- very limited stats I'm afraid if the leagues are not showcased at www.soccerstats.com. A match I will leave alone.
5pm - Molde v Start - 1.45 home
Standout stats
- this is a norwegian top flight match
- 2013 head to heads see a 1-1 draw and a 0-1 Start win.
- this is 2nd v 8th after only 5 matches
- little to evaluate
Molde
- solid start to the season with 4 wins and a loss. Scored 2+ in all wins
- have scored in all matches this season
- no 0-0 at halftime albeit only 5 matches
- have conceded just 1 at home and scored 7
Start
- 2 defeats, 2 wins and a draw
- have scored and conceded in their 3 aways this season, Loss, Draw, Win
- only 1 0-0 at halftime in 5 matches
Profitable in-play opportunities
- very little to go on. You will get a better statistical outlook some 12+ matches into the season
- Molde having a good time, scoring early season. If they win, they will likely score 2. Both teams could score today, albeit based on only 3 away matches for Start
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5pm - Odd v Sarpsborg - 1.67 home
Standout stats
- 0-1 Odd win and 2-2 draw in the 2013 head to heads
- this is 9th v 6th after 5 matches
Odd
- have scored and conceded in 4 of 5 matches
- 2 consecutive 2-1 wins at home. That sequence will end at some point
- have conceded in all 5 matches
Sarpsborg
- only 1 loss this season, a 5-1 v Molde, a team Odd beat at home 2-1
- have scored and conceded in their 2 away matches
Profitable in-play opportunities
- Odd look good at home beating strong teams like Molde and Rosenborg 2-1. A win today should see them getting another 2 goals. They have conceded in all 5 league matches though.
- Sarpsborg have also scored and conceded so both teams might score today
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6pm - FC Brno v Plzen - 1.8 away
Standout stats
- this is a czech cup match
- Plzen are 2-0 up with 2nd and 88th minute goals from the first leg
- So Plzen must avoid a 2-0, 3-0 defeat, and can tolerate a 1-0 defeat and a 0-0
- Brno must win 2-0 to bring the match to parity and then push on for the win
- Plzen have not had a draw in the cup since 2013 and Brno have only had one draw in the same time frame.
- Goal laden away matches for Plzen in the cup, scoring and conceding in 5 of their last 6. Remember circumstance though. No need to win today, just to avoid a 2-0 or higher defeat
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6pm - Sogndal v Rosenborg - 1.81 away
Standout stats
- 14th v 4th after 5 matches in another Norwegian top flight match
- Rosenborg have not conceded in the last 4 head to heads, winning the last 3
Sogndal
- Sogndal conceded 3-1-4-3 in their 4 opening matches and might be punished by an away team who have the edge in head to heads
- have scored and conceded in their 2 home matches this season
- No 0-0 at halftime yet
Rosenborg
- unbeaten this season albeit 3 score draws is an unwelcome habit.
- 1-1 and 2-2 in their last 2 away matches
- Rosenborg are scoring readily but throwing away points with score draws. Will they really have a 3rd consecutive score draw? This is a pattern we might like to punt on being broken today? So lay any late score draw.
- Sogndal could concede 3 at their worst.
- Sogndal do not tend to score against Rosenborg and if scoring first, will be vulnerable
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805pm - Juventus v Benfica - 1.63 home
Standout stats
- 2-1 to benfica from the first leg and Juventus would settle with that I'm sure.
- They have the away goal so need still to score, ideally first in this fixture to put them at an away goal advantage
- 1-0 therefore is the bare minimum for Juventus in this Europa League Semi-final .
- Benfica would settle for a 0-0 as the absolute bare minimum scoreline for them. An away goal , and scoring first, will make for an interesting fixture .
- As ever I cannot research this one off event properly
805pm - Valencia v Sevilla - 2.22 home
Standout stats
- 2-0 for Sevilla from the first leg kept up their excellent end of season goal scoring run.
- Both sides lost their most recent match in the league. Sevilla were poor away at Ath Bilbao while Valencia dominated for large periods in a 0-1 loss v Atl Madrid, whose goal was rather fortunate.
- This marks Valencia as being perhaps a different animal at home.
- Ideals? valencia need a 2-0 immediately to bring the tie to parity.
- Sevilla need a 0-0 or a 1-0 loss to progress. If Sevilla score first, you'd think that should sink the home team.
FRIDAY
11am - Amkar v CSKA Moscow -1.63 away
Standout stats
- CSKA have won 4 of the last 5 head to heads , and won the last 2
- this is 7th v 3rd and CSKA are bang in the title race, only 4 points behind Zenit
Amkar
- only 1 win in 10 matches
- have lost their last 3 home matches and have failed to score in 3 of their last 4 matches
- only 3 clean sheets in 14 matches
- have lost to 1st at home, but drew 0-0 with 2nd and beat 4th and 5th. Will this be as easy as the odds suggest for CSKA?
- only 3 home defeats for Amkar all seaosn and 2 of them came in their last 2 home matches
- 5 0-0's at halftime at home
- 3 0-0's at home
- have only conceded 3 goals in the first half at home
CSKA
- 7 consecutive wins, 5 clean sheets in stark contrast with Amkar
- have won their last 3 away matches scoring 3-3-4 and keeping 2 clean sheets
- have failed to score in only 2 of 14 matches
- have not had a 0-0 at halftime in 8 matches
- only 2 wins v top 12 away is a slight concern
- 3 0-0's at halftime away
- have scored first in only 6 of 14 away matches
Profitable in-play opportunities
- based on recent form and head to heads , this is CSKA's for the taking. A strong winning run, scoring bucket loads away and no recent chinks.
- BUT season long, They have won only 2 away v top 12 sides. and Amkar have been interestingly solid v top 5 sides with a loss, draw, and 2 wins.
- Will recent form out? If you think so, then side with CSKA.
- We might see a goal at halftime
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130pm - Volga Nyzhnyi Novgorod v FK Krasnodar - 1.84 away
Standout stats
- Krasnador are unbeaten in 4 head to heads, 3 were wins at home though, one a 1-1 draw at Volga
- this is 15th v 9th. Volga are in dire trouble, 2nd bottom 4 points from 3rd bottom.
Volga
- only 1 win in 14 matches and 8 defeats in their last 9 matches looks a little terminal.
- after 5 defeats in 6 matches, Volga won their last home match 2-1 v 8th in the league
- only 3 clean sheets all season
- have failed to score in 5 of their last 6 matches
- have lost all home matches v top 7 sides and have lost 12 of 13 matches home and away v top 7 teams
- no draw in 13 home matches
- 5 0-0's at halftime at home
- have conceded a whopping 10 of their 21 conceded home goals in the last 1/4 hour
- have scored first in 7 of 13 home matches
Krasnador
- 3 losses in 4 is not the best form either
- 1 defeat in the last 4 away matches was against a resurgent Zenit
- have failed to score in only 3 matches all season
- have only lost 1 match away to 8th and lower in the league
- have scored and conceded away v 3rd bottom and bottom and are playing 2nd bottom today
- have scored in their last 4 away and conceded in their last 5 away matches
- 1.84 against a team with 8 defeats in their last 9 matches. It's probably because Krasnador are in poor very recent form. Still the stats point to Krasnador surely not losing against these Volga mugs?
- Krasnador are expected to get a goal at some stage. They have failed to score in only 3 matches all season.
- Volga have had recent problems scoring so we really should statistically favour Krasnador here.
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Standout stats
- Rostov 1-0, Moscow 1-0 and a 1-1 in the last 3 head to heads is inconclusive
- this is 8th v 4th. Dinamo are 9 points behind CSKA and 2 points ahead of fellow Moscovites Spartak
Rostov
- no win in 3.
- have scored and conceded in their last 3 home matches
- no 0-0 at halftime in 7 matches
- have not beaten any top 10 team at home, albeit 5 draws and 2 defeats to 1st and 5th
- failed to score at home to 1st, 3rd and 5th
- 7 0-0's at halftime at home is over 50% of home matches
Dinamo Moscow
- 3 losses in their last 4 matches
- have only won 1 match away to top 11 sides
- 5 0-0's at halftime away
Profitable in-play opportunities
- very unappealing match on a poor day for the in-play coupon.
- I suppose the only real angle is the 0-0 at halftime being a possibility. Under 2.5 goals is a goer based on head to heads
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Standout stats
- 6 wins and a 1-1 draw for Shakhtar in head to heads
- have scored a minimum of 2 goals at least in home head to heads
- this is 1st v 9th. 2nd are only 3 points behind Shakhtar which should ensure this 1.11 quote is translated into the expected easy win
Shakhtar
- only 5 defeats all season
- have won 5 of their last 6 matches
- have won their last 3 home matches, and the last 2 were 2-1
- have failed to score in only 3 matches all season
- only dropped points at home ( loss and draw) came against 2nd and 3rd
Illychivets
- only 2 defeats in 9 matches
- have won their last 2 away matches 0-1 and 1-2
- only 7 clean sheets all season
- against top 8 away, they have lost 6 and drawn 1. In all bar 1 of the defeats, they failed to score
- only 25% over 2.5 goals away from home which may be important as they play a 1.11 shot
- AS we know, 1.11 equals 3/4 goals and a possible win to nil. 4 is the maximum Shakhtar have scored at home this season but against Illychivets it's been either 2 or 3 goals.
- Note too the 25% over 2.5 goals for Illychivets away. This might suggest the value is in under 2.5 goals and it would take a brave soul to back under 2.5 goals for a match involving a 1.11 shot!!
- Shakhtar should score at some stage and there is the possibility for a win to nil.
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730pm - SC Bastia v Lille - 1.92 away
Standout stats
- Lille are unbeaten in 4 head to heads, winning the last 2 matches 2-1
- this is 11th v 3rd
- there are 3 matches remaining this season. Bastia cannot be brought into the relegation battle even if losing those 3 matches but Lille could get 2nd place with 3 wins and Monaco losing their remaining 3 matches ( unlikely).
Bastia
- only 2 wins in 11 matches have come at home.
- scored and conceded in their last 4 matches
- have scored 2 goals in each of their 3 home matches
- only 1 clean sheet in 14 matches
- have not had a 0-0 at halftime in 13 matches
- Bastia have not beaten any of the top 5 home or away this season, losing 8 and drawing 1 of the 9 matches played. They have failed to score against 1st, 2nd and 4th at home
- 5 0-0's at halftime at home is about 29% of home matches
- have scored first in only 9 of 17 home matches
Lille
- unbeaten in 12 matches and hitting an unbeaten streak at the right part of the season
- DWDWD ( D=Draw, W=Win) in their last 5 away matches
- 5 clean sheets in their last 8 matches
- unconvincing away from home with only 3 wins against top 17 teams, 2 of which were 0-1 and were incidentally against teams around Bastia's position in the league.
- undefeated in 5 away matches
- 6 0-0's at halftime away is about 35% of away matches
- have scored 10 of their 11 1st half away goals in the last 1/2 hour of the first half.
Profitable in-play opportunities
- looking at Bastia in isolation it all looked rather straighforward. Lose to top 4 at home.
- But in Lille we have an unconvincing away side. They have won the 3 matches against teams around Bastia in the league, albeit 1-2, 0-1, 0-1.
- Lille are the form side and are playing a Bastia who know they are safe now, with 3 matches remaining.
- As is the case at this part of the season, will the MUST WINS ( to pressure 2nd spot) win?
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8pm - Rayo Vallecano v Ath Bilbao - 2.04 away
Standout stats
Profitable in-play opportunities
For Reference
8pm - Rayo Vallecano v Ath Bilbao - 2.04 away
Standout stats
- both teams have scored in the last 6 head to heads
- 2-3 and 2-2 at Rayo in the last 2 head to heads makes for a potentially exciting match.
- this is 9th v 4th. With 4 matches remaining Vallecano are as safe as houses and are staying up. Ath Bilbao hold a 6 point cushion in 4th place and can reasonably be caught if they cock up their remaining 3 matches and Sevilla win all of their matches
Rayo Vallecano
- only 1 defeat in 10 was against Real Madrid so putting together a cracking end to the season.
- 3 wins in their last 4 matches, scoring at least 3 goals
- 5 consecutive home wins now too so despite having nothing to play for, Rayo are acting as if they are playing for something!!
- it still remains though that Rayo have lost all matches home and away v 5th and above this season.
- no draw in 17 home matches
- 5 0-0's at halftime at home is only 29% of matches
- no 0-0 at home
- have scored first in only 8 of 17 home matches
Ath Bilbao
- only 4 defeats in 23 matches, the last 3 defeats were 2-1
- only 1 defeat in 7 away was a 2-1 v Barcelona when Bilbao actually scored first
- have failed to score in only 5 matches this season
- have not won away v top 10 this season with draws v 5th, 7th, 8th and 10th
- 5 0-0's at halftime is the same as Rayo
- have scored first in only 6 away matches this season
- a lack of congruency here. 17 without a draw at home for Rayo plays a Bilbao side with draws v 5th, 7th, 8th and 10th away ( Rayo are 9th)
- Both teams are in great form too which makes this a tricky one. If following the "must wins tend to win" argument , then you'd want to side with a Bilbao side seeking to secure 4th spot against a Rayo side safe from relegation and not really going anywhere.
- Rayo have lost all matches home and away v top 5 - is that the clincher in what is a tricky match to read?
For Reference
8pm - Shamrock Rovers v Limerick - 1.37 home
I'll not research Ireland as it has proven to be very unreliable over the years. It is at soccerstats if you want to check inplay
SATURDAY 3rd May
12:15 UK Barnsley v QPR 0 - 2.1 away
Standout stats
- this is 23rd v 4th
- Barnsley must win this match. QPR can tolerate a loss as they will remain 4th but again the ideal for them is to retain 4th spot ( 3rd seems distant).
- QPR won 2-0 the last time these 2 met.
- this is the last match of the season so Barnsley are down. QPR have secured a play-off spot and this is as dead as a dead rubber can get. Time to skidaddle!
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12:15 UK Ipswich v Sheff Wed - 1.67 home
12:15 UK Leicester v Doncaster - 1.5 home
14:30 UK Borussia Dortmund v Hoffenheim - 1.4 home
Standout stats
- it is with a tear in my eye that I saw the 0-0 last weekend, Hoffenheim's first aberration in what has been a statistically remarkable season for us punters.
- both teams have scored in the last 4 head to heads
- It was 2-2 the last time these 2 met with Hoff 2-0 up at home
- this is 2nd v 9th
Dortmund
- only 2 defeats in 15 were matches prior to a Champions League fixture
- have scored at least 2 goals in 6 of their last 7 matches.
- are safe in a Champions League spot so not necessary to win
- have failed to score in only 5 matches all season
- have conceded 2 goals in each of their last 2 matches
- in 8 home matches v top 10, Dortmund have won only 2 matches, and scored and conceded against 5th, 6th, 7th, 8th and 10th. Guess who they're playing today. Yes, 9th!
- 75%^ over 2.5 goals at home
- 5 0-0's at halftime at home is quite a surprise
- have scored 25 of their 38 home goals in the 2nd half.
Hoffenheim
- first 0-0 of the season came in their last match which was
- one of only 5 matches in which the Hoff failed to score
- one of only 3 matches all season in which the Hoff kept a clean sheet
- one of only 5 matches all season which finished under 2.5 goals.
- one of only 4 matches all season which finished 0-0 at halftime
- have scored and conceded in 6 of their last 7 away matches
- have scored and conceded in 5 of 6 away matches against top 7 sides this season
- have scored and conceded in 11 of 12 matches against top 7 teams home and away
- have conceded in their last 16 away matches
- only 2 0-0's at halftime away from home
- have conceded 20 goals first half and 16 goals 2nd half away from home
Profitable in-play opportunities
- we must acknowledge this is a dead rubber and we saw last week that the Hoff took their foot off the gas. They keep conceding away and Dortmund keep scoring 2+. A chance for normal service to be resumed as long as these 2 teams are not dreaming of summer hols.
- if normal service is to be resumed, then there will be a goal at least before halftime, both teams will score, the Hoff will be highly vulnerable if taking the lead, it is over 2.5 goals too.
- It's up to you if you want one last hurrah!
- If we don't see an early goal, delay!
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15:00 UK Barcelona v Getafe -1.06 home
- this is a must win, and this season end, Barcelona have won all must wins, thanks for Leo Messi goals. They were 2-0 down to Villareal but won 2-3.
- Getafe have a small matter of being 2 points from relegation themselves so will put up a fight.
- Barca are 4 points shy of Atl Madrid in 2nd spot so must must win this match
Barcelona
- have conceded first in their last 3 matches. We can only hope this continues today. Against Villareal, 2 own goals helped get Barca back into the match and Messi polished it off as he usually does.
- 4 of the 5 defeats this season have come away from home and have been 1-0
- 6 consecutive home wins
15:00 UK Annan v Elgin - 1.5 home
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15:00 UK Aston Villa v Hull - 2.2 home
Standout stats
- 0-0 earlier in the season is not much help in getting an angle in here.
- this is 16th v 13th. Aston Villa are 3 points clear of the relegation zone. Hull City are 5 points clear of the relegation zone. What these 2 sides have going for them is the fact they have a game in hand over the current bottom 3.
- 3 matches remain for these 2 sides to salvage their season. This therefore is your typical relegation 6 pointer.
Aston Villa
- only 2 wins in 12 matches includes 5 losses and a draw
- after beating Norwich and Chelsea at home, Villa have lost to Stoke, Fulham and drawn 0-0 with Southampton
- only 2 wins against top 14 sides at home were bizarrely against Chelsea and Manchester City.
- The majority of positive home results have come agianst 15th and lower in the league. Hull are 13th
- 8 0-0's at halftime at home
- have scored first in only 4 home matches this season. Imagine the pressure that heaps on the side.
- Opponents have led at halftime in half of home matches
Hull
- only 2 wins in 8 matches. A 2-2 draw with Fulham showcased battling qualities as Fulham were 2-0 up
- 2 losses and a draw away after 2 wins away to Cardiff and Sunderland
- only 3 away wins, 2 were against 17th and 20th as mentioned above.
- have scored in 3 of 4 matches away to bottom 4 sides
- 5 0-0's at halftime away from home
- have scored first in only 4 away matches this season
- Opponents have led at halftime in 7 of 17 away matches
Profitable in-play opportunities
- relegation 6 pointer typifies the matches we'll meet at this part of the season. Both in poor form, both sides coming to life at the lower echelons of the table.
- Looking purely from a stats point of view. I am taken by Hull's ability to score at least 2 goals in 3 of their 4 matches away to bottom 4 ( they play 5th bottom today).
- Either team could score first today and either team could lead at halftime! Yes, it's a tricky match
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15:00 UK Ayr v East Fife - 1.61
15:00 UK Brentford v Stevenage - 1.44 home
15:00 UK Celtic v Aberdeen - 1.44 home
15:00 UK Dundee v Dumbarton - 1.33 home
15:00 UK Dunfermline v Rangers - 1.25 away
15:00 UK Man Utd v Sunderland - 1.33 home
Standout stats
Profitable in-play opportunities
17:00 UK Galatasaray v Genclerbirligi - 1.44 home
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