Here is an excerpt of April's article on "creating value from short prices"
Follow this step-by-step strategy to optimise your chances of collecting an evens return time after time.
1) Ensure you know your fractional and decimal odds. This will allow you to use both the bookmakers and www.betfair.com as your resources with which to mine for 1/5, 1 /4 and 1/3 shots. For the record, a 1/5 shot is 1.20 in decimal odds. A 1 /4 shot is 1.25 in decimal odds. A 1/3 shot is 1.33 in decimal odds.
2) Don’t restrict yourself to backing selections in order to make your quota of 1/5 , 1/4 and 1/3 shots. With our ability to lay ( as the patriarch reminds us this month), we can get the same return as a 1/5 , 1/4 and 1/3 shot by laying selections at certain prices. Keep a note of the lay odds below which correspond to the same as backing the selection.
1/5 shot is 1.20 - lay a selection at 6.00 . Backing a 1.20 shot with £100 will return £20. Laying a selection at odds of 6.00 for £100 liability ( not stake) will return around £20.
1 /4 shot is 1.25 – lay a selection at 5.00. Backing a 1.25 shot with £100 will return £25. Laying a selection at odds of 5.00 for £100 liability ( not stake) will return around £25.
1/3 shot is 1.33 – lay a selection at 4.00. Backing a 1.33 shot with £100 will return £33. Laying a selection at odds of 4.00 for £100 liability ( not stake) will return around £33.
I will use the techniques I suggested within the article. I hope you find it informative
all bar Barcelona won for the shortlisters. The tennis continues to perform well with only one of the shorties not winning. All of the horses mentioned on Saturday won or were placed.
RACING POST SHORTLISTERS/PRICE GAPPERS. We look to find horses with an obvious chance of winning, but we want to back them in the TO PLACE ONLY market.
235 bath
Betting forecast: 4/6 Good Value, 9/4 Opera Fan, 4/1 Solidarity.
3 horses for 2 places so a purely probability race] - 2nd 1.2
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205 Beverley
Betting forecast: 7/4 Clouds Rest, 5/1 Free Entry, 7/1 Penny Royale, 7/1 Soie D´leau, 8/1 Monsieur Jimmy, 10/1 Multiplier, 10/1 Show Spirit, 14/1 Don´t Tell Bertie, 20/1 Autumn Revue, 25/1 Alfie Bond.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: It could take one of the newcomers to trouble CLOUDS REST, who showed enough early dash at Nottingham to believe she can make the most of the plum draw. Free Entry, whose stable won this last year, and Penny Royale, from a family her trainer knows inside out, are feared most. Better is also expected from Monsieur Jimmy.[Alistair Whitehouse-Jones]
Ran 2nd 15 days ago which is a positive for the maiden favourite here. BUT 7 of his opponents are debutants and thus unknowns - 1st 1.17
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200 Curragh
Betting forecast: 30/100 The Great War, 5/1 Bwana, 8/1 Fresh Focus, 16/1 Arriana, 33/1 Intense Style, 40/1 Bluerince Lady.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: THE GREAT WAR shaped like Royal Ascot material first time out at Tipperary and should deal with Cork winner Bwana. [Alan Sweetman]
Win only on the Aiden O'Brien short priced favourite? - 1st 1.12
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415 Curragh
Betting forecast: 1/3 Magician, 5/1 Parish Hall, 12/1 Hall Of Mirrors, 14/1 Paene Magnus, 28/1 Jazz Girl.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Supporting Aidan O'Brien's supposed good things in early-season races at this level has not always been the smartest move, but it will be hugely disappointing if MAGICIAN doesn't prove far too good for his opponents. Though he won the Breeders' Cup Turf over 1m4f, his impressive success in the Irish 2,000 Guineas suggests there is no reason to worry about him stepping back to 1m2f here as he clearly has plenty of pace. Parish Hall ought to be the one to chase him home. [Thomas Deane]
a 37 day course and distance winner and beaten favourite last time out, this Aidan O'Brien favourite is warn order here. Depending on whether we get a place only price at around 1.2, this might have to be a win only bet - 1st 1.19
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320 Ffos las
Betting forecast: 6/4 Fuse Wire, 7/4 Trooper Clarence, 9/4 Rime Avec Gentil.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Trooper Clarence is the likeliest pacemaker but it's not easy to predict much else, with him regressive in the last few years and the other two still early in their chase careers. The benefit of a recent run tips the scales towards FUSE WIRE.[Stuart Redding]
3 horses for 2 places is another probability race - 3rd 1.41
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250 Kempton
Betting forecast: 8/11 Simply A Legend, 4/1 Generous Helpings, 11/2 Parish Business, 8/1 Royal Ripple, 20/1 Shanty Town, 25/1 Millers Pudsey, 33/1 Bus Named Desire.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: SIMPLY A LEGEND was always likely to raise his game once settling better and the first-time hood did the trick in that respect at Ascot, form that comfortably sets the standard in this company. Generous Helpings would be the most likely improver, though Parish Business should also have a future.[Alistair Whitehouse-Jones]
Price gapper in a novices hurdle, albeit only 2 places available - 1st 1.13
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415 Warwick
Betting forecast: 8/11 Bon Voyage, 6/1 Scarlet Plum, 8/1 Gambol, 8/1 Saalib, 16/1 Havana Girl, 16/1 Hooke´s Law, 16/1 Sharp Volley, 33/1 Musical Theme, 33/1 Purana, 40/1 Semaral, 66/1 Sound Of Life.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Confidence in BON VOYAGE is reduced slightly by last month's rather disappointing reappearance, but it came in a competitive race and 6f was probably a bit sharp for him. His best 2yo form sets a fairly high standard and he should get off the mark here. Saalib and Scarlet Plum are both expected to build on inauspicious debuts. Sharp Volley is arguably the most interesting newcomer.[Chris Wilson]
Big price gapper here in this maiden, a 7th place last time out 17 days ago. The form prior to that was 3434 and this is a 5 race maiden, so patience with backers wearing thin 2nd 1.27
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TENNIS SHORT PRICES
All wins on Saturday bar one but plenty to choose from when building just that one treble per day.
10am - Dodig v Nishikori ( 1.16) - 39th v 12th and 1-1 in head to heads . Would have liked to see Nishikori top 10 - NISH WIN 2 SETS
10am - Flipkens v N Li( 1.1) - WIN 2 SETS
1145am - Tsonga ( 1.22) v Roger-Vasselin -13th v 47th and 4-0 in head to heads - WIN 3 SETS
1pm - Matosevic v Kohlschreiber( 1.23) - 68th v 27th and 0-1 in head to heads - LOST 2 SETS
115pm - Thiem ( 1.26 ) v Tursunov - 70th v 32nd and the higher ranked player is the outsider here - WON 2 SETS
130pm - Youzhny ( 1.33)v B Becker - 16th v 62nd and 3-0 in head to heads - WON 2 SETS
2pm - Halep( 1.24) v Goerges - 5th v 97th and 0-1 to the underdog in head to heads - WON 2 SETS
3pm - A Ramos ( 1.32) v Mahut -WON 2 SETS
4pm - Svitolina v J Jankovic (1.2) - 36th v 7th and 0-1 head to head - -WON 2 SETS
5pm - Giraldo ( 1.22) v L Hewitt - 46th v 43rd - WON 3 SETS
6pm - Meusburger v Suarez Navarro ( 1.21) - 38th v 15th - WON 2 SETS
830pm - Dimitrov ( 1.22)v Carreno Busta - 14th v 63rd - WON 2 SETS
FOOTBALL SHORTIES
130pm - Angusht Nazran v FC Ufa - 1.26 away WON 0-1
630pm - Steaua Bucharest v Corona Brasov - 1.11 suggests a halftime/fulltime punt will bring us to the 1.2+ odds we need - WON 3-0 SCORED BEFORE HALFTIME
8pm - Juventus v Atalanta - 1.22 home - already won the title - WON 1-0
SHORTLIST
1145am - Tsonga ( 1.22) v Roger-Vasselin -13th v 47th and 4-0 in head to heads
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2pm - Halep( 1.24) v Goerges - 5th v 97th and 0-1 to the underdog in head to heads
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235 bath
Betting forecast: 4/6 Good Value, 9/4 Opera Fan, 4/1 Solidarity.
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3 horses for 2 places so a purely probability race]
Place back the market leader if the place only odds are 1.2 or higher
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200 Curragh
Betting forecast: 30/100 The Great War, 5/1 Bwana, 8/1 Fresh Focus, 16/1 Arriana, 33/1 Intense Style, 40/1 Bluerince Lady.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: THE GREAT WAR shaped like Royal Ascot material first time out at Tipperary and should deal with Cork winner Bwana. [Alan Sweetman]
Win only on the Aiden O'Brien short priced favourite? May have to be win only
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415 Warwick
Betting forecast: 8/11 Bon Voyage, 6/1 Scarlet Plum, 8/1 Gambol, 8/1 Saalib, 16/1 Havana Girl, 16/1 Hooke´s Law, 16/1 Sharp Volley, 33/1 Musical Theme, 33/1 Purana, 40/1 Semaral, 66/1 Sound Of Life.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Confidence in BON VOYAGE is reduced slightly by last month's rather disappointing reappearance, but it came in a competitive race and 6f was probably a bit sharp for him. His best 2yo form sets a fairly high standard and he should get off the mark here. Saalib and Scarlet Plum are both expected to build on inauspicious debuts. Sharp Volley is arguably the most interesting newcomer.[Chris Wilson]
Big price gapper here in this maiden, a 7th place last time out 17 days ago. The form prior to that was 3434 and this is a 5 race maiden, so patience with backers wearing thin
Shortlisted only because this is the biggest price gapper of the day. If you can get your 3 treble selections from elsewhere then I would recommend that
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8pm - Juventus v Atalanta - 1.22 home - already won the title - on an ordinary day this would be a strong selection but having won the title, hmmm! Still Juve are at home and will want one last hurrah? You know the risks though betting on NON- must wins.
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