Monday, 7 April 2014

7th april 2014

England u19 took a while to get going and you could have backed these 1.15 shots at nearer 1.6 in play with a bit of delaying. They eventually scored and won.
A red card all but killed off Volga as Lokomotiv cruised to a 3-0 win . I thought about the 0-0 for a while but again said red card scuppered that.
 Juventus did what a 1.18 shot should do, win to nil. 2-0, 2 first half goals and I was spot on  - 2-4 goals and a possible win to nil. No DRT's there alas.

As easy as you like for Benfica , cruising to a 4-0 eventual win, with 2 late penalties. Only 1 goal in the first half in the Genoa match and AC Milan won 1-2 in the end in a match I was not really taken with given the relatively poor season the away side have had.

A nice DRT in the Spurs v Sunderland match which saw Sunderland threaten to " do a Sassuolo" with a 17th minute lead. My research indicated to "favour" Spurs, and when I say "favour" I mean this is the side we have on our side so if opponents score first, we can comfortably lay the opponents.
I suppose the ultra conservative amongst you would have backed 0-1 insurance and layed Sunderland incase of said " sassuolo type win"
Ath Bilbao were the form side going into the clash with levante . No 0-0 here though as Bilbao scored 2 first half goals and missed a penalty
Levante continue to fail to score - their goal was an own goal.

The Sunderland match then was the best DRT match of the night. The shorties all behaved themselves and won with ease ( which then does not present any DRT opportunities).

745pm - Blackburn v QPR - 2.48 home
Standout stats
  • QPR are a side I have been following this season. 0-0 when these 2 met earlier in the season and the odds suggest an equally tight affair tonight.
  • 11th v 3rd. Blackburn could conceivably be one place from the play-offs with 3 points this evening. QPR are 10 points from automatic promotion so their goal now must be the preservation of a play-off place
Blackburn
  • unbeaten in 6 with 4 score draws, 3 of them 3-3,2-2,3-3
  • 6 over 2.5 goals matches in their last 9
  • against the top 8 at home, Blackburn are yet to win. They have drawn 4 though so warning for QPR
  • In the 7 matches played home and away v top 4 sides, Blackburn have drawn 5 of them
  • 9 0-0's at halftime at home is 45% of home matches
  • have scored first in only 10 of 20 home matches yet only lost 5 matches at home.
QPR
  • are haemorraghing points away from home at precisely the wrong time. 5 away defeats in their last 7 away matches
  • Only 1 away win v the top 10 and are playing 11th today
  • no draw in 8 aways against the supposed draw kings it seems, in Blackburn
  • 11 0-0's at halftime away from home
  • have conceded 15 of their 21 goals away in the 2nd half

Profitable in-play opportunities
  • the 0-0 at halftime occurs a lot with these 2 and cannot be discounted. Neither can the draw when Blackburn play the top teams home and away. 
  • If QPR score first, Blackburn might be able to respond you feel, given the number of draws, and high scoring draws of late.
  • do note this is a league I don't specialise in. I'm only researching because it's a quiet night.
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745pm - Chelsea v Paris St-G - 1.86 home
Standout stats
  • straightforward angles in here. It's 1-3 to PSG. Chelsea have an away goal so a 2-0 home win would see them through. 
  • PSG for their part will go through with a simple 1-0 loss, 0-0 draw . Ideally a PSG away goal will make Chelsea's task very difficult  as they'll need 3 goals.
  • Imperative therefore that a clean sheet is achieved by Chelsea and that is likely to be the early focus of the first half. A 0-0 pre match therefore? 
745pm - Dortmund v Real Madrid - 2.28 away
Standout stats
  • Dortmund failed to score an away goal and that could be their downfall this evening. They must replicate a 3-0 home win in order just to stay in the tie. A Real Madrid away goal will see them through with a 3-1 home win .
  • Expectation is for an attack-led game in stark contrast to Chelsea's defensive led early stages.
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745pm - Leicester v Brighton - 1.78 home
Standout stats
  • a 3-1 Brighton home win earlier in the season
  • this is 1st v 8th and like Blackburn, 3 points for Brighton could see them on the cusp of a play-off spot.
  • leicester have a 9 point cushion at the top  and a 19 point cushion to play-off spots. With 6 matches remaining and 18 points on offer to 3rd in the league, it seems leicester are promoted automatically already as they cannot finish anything less than 2nd ( I'd better phone Carole Vorderman to make sure) so this is not a must-win for Leicester and their questionable motivation means this is a match I will leave alone. We see this at this stage of the season with seeming "dead rubbers" making for tough matches to trade.

745pm - Peterborough v Gillingham - 1.69 home
Standout stats
  • this is 6th v 14th Peterborough are currently in a play-ff place but only 3 points from 7th in the league. They need to win therefore.
  • Gillingham are 5 points from relegation so this will keep them honest to season-end
Peterborough
  • only 4 draws all season so statistically more likely to avoid draws.
  • have avoided a draw in their last 10 matches but only won 6 of those matches. Troubling times
  • only 5 clean sheets in 21 matches
  • only 2 draws at home were 0-0
  • 5 0-0's at halftime at home
Gillingham
  • only 6 clean sheets all season for Gillingham
  • 3 of their 5 away wins came v bottom 6 sides.
  • have lost away to 1st, 2nd and 3rd but not played 4th, 5th and are playing 6th away today
  • A 2-2 when these 2 met earlier in the season
  • 79% over 2.5 goals away is eyecatching
  • NO 0-0 this season
  • have conceded 17 1st half and 20 2nd half away goals
Profitable in-play opportunities
  • I don't like this league - I'll start by saying that. I am only researching as it;s a quiet night. Stats wise, can we retain faith in Peterborough avoiding a draw, enough to allow us to profit from a trade if 0-0, 1-1 for a while?
  • No 0-0 this season for Gillingham so if we get a concerted 0-0, then faith in Gills conceding at some stage.  That tallies with only 6 clean sheets all season! 
  • Both sides could score this evening.
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745pm - Wigan v Millwall - 1.68 home

Standout stats
  • 2-1 to Millwall in the last head to heads


Profitable in-play opportunities










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