Thursday, 24 April 2014

friday

Non committal in both matches yesterday and a reminder that just because there are matches on the in-play coupon, it doesn't mean you have to get involved.

1230pm - Balestier Khalsa v Harimau Muda B - 1.52 home
Standout stats


Profitable in-inplay opportunities




1230pm - Woodlands Wellington v Brunei DPMM FC - 1.7 away
Standout stats


Profitable in-inplay opportunities


2pm - Khimik Dzerzhinsk v Angusht Nazran - 1.32 home
Standout stats



Profitable in-inplay opportunities


3pm - Atromitos v Panathinaikos - 2.7 away
Standout stats
  • a 0-0 draw last time. This could go either way , so says the head to heads, backed up by a 2.7 quote for the favourite.
  • this is 4th v 3rd and almost identical stats, goals difference and points. 2nd place is up for grabs with a win .Atromitos would like to break into the top 3 for European competition.
  • this is a greek play off match . 4 teams play off for 1 Champions League and 2 Europa League places. I have researched by league form which may be redundant given the fact these play-offs are a unique experience where tactics might play a part.
Atromitos
  • only 6 defeats all season, but 2 defeats in their last 4 matches
  • have failed to score in 3 of their last 4 matches
  • 7 clean sheets at home in their last 8 matches.
  • undefeated at home, but draws against 1st, 2nd, 3rd
Panathanaikos
  • only 2 defeats in 16 matches
  • draw and loss in their last 2 away matches
  • only 1 loss in 11 came in their last match , an away match
  • failed to score in only 6 matches all season
  • only 1 win away to top 5
Profitable in-inplay opportunities
  • a toughie this one. Statistically Atromitos are strong at home , unbeaten in 17 but draw v top 3. Is that the angle in? Favour Atromitos. 
  • Atromitos have been keeping clean sheets too at home. Will this allow for a long 0-0?
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3pm - Mordovia Saransk v Rotor Volgograd - 1.37 home
Standout stats


Profitable in-inplay opportunities


330pm - Haka v HJK Helsinki - 1.58 away
Standout stats
  • The Finnish cup and I'll admit, it's not one of my strong suits! Only 1 loss since 2012 in the cup came away last match for HJK.
  • Haka are a lower league side who have a good cup record, unbeaten in 90 minutes since 2013 but we don't know the kind of teams they have been playing.
  • A match simply for you to decide whether to favour the bigger team HJK Helsinki if they concede first.
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5pm - Sparta Prague v FK Jablonec - 1.27 home
Standout stats
  • this is a czech cup match
  • 3-1 to Jablonec from the first leg and the market expects the home team to win this match in an attempt to regain parity
  • In the last 7 head to heads, both teams have scored
Sparta Prague
  • Sparta did this last match. They lost away 2-1 to Dukla Prague, but won 2-0 at home.
  • they have scored and conceded in 7 of 9 cup matches
  • 2-1 and 2-0 in their last 2 home cup matches
Jablonec
  • something to cling onto, and if both teams continue to score and concede as they have done, Jablonec will have a good chance here of going through even if losing the match
  • Jablonec lost 1-0 away to Sparta in the cup in 2012 and lost their last away match 1-0 in the cup
Profitable in-inplay opportunities
  • little to go on I'm afraid. The stats tell us both teams like to score when they meet, so if you want to speculate, then 2-1, 3-1 could be goers.
  • The market expects Sparta to win this match in an effort to address a 3-1 deficit from the first leg.
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515pm - Ludogorets v CSKA Sofia - 1.52 home
Standout stats
  • this is a Bulgarian league match and as it is not featured at soccerstats, I can only do limited research
  • 4 wins and a 0-0 in Ludogorets favour without CSKA scoring in any of those 5 head to heads
Ludogorets
  • unbeaten in 2014 but plagued by draws. 4 draws in their last 5 matches 
  • only 2 defeats at home since April 2012 in the league is solid form
  • have kept 4 clean sheets in their last 5 home matches
CSKA
  • 4 wins in their last 5 sees reasonable form. 4 wins in their last 7 matches saw 2 defeats, one of which was against Ludogorets - a 77th minute goal
  • 4 wins, 2 0-0's and a 2-0 loss to Plovdiv shows reasonable recent away form
Profitable in-inplay opportunities
  • very limited research here. Ludogorets keep clean sheets against CSKA on a consistent basis.
  • given the number of draws Ludogorets are having, should CSKA score first, we might be able to lay them
  • there may be a concerted 0-0 here given the draws and given the home clean sheets.
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515pm - PAOK v Asteras Tripolis - 1.63 home
Standout stats
  • Asteras won 2-1 after conceding first in the last head to head. Prior to that PAOK had won 2 at home 1-0 and 2-0
  • this is a greek play off match . There are 6 sets of 2 matches to be played
  • this was 2nd v 5th in the league and there were 11 points between the 2 sides
  • PAOK scored 2 goals at least in 8 of their last 9 matches in the league so were in a good bit of goalscoring form before season-proper ended.
  • Unbeaten at home, PAOK should retain some confidence today
  • they scored 2+ in all bar 3 home matches
  • Asteras in the season lost to 1st, 2nd, 3rd and 4th away so they don't have any form which leads me to conclude that they will threaten PAOK today.
  • In those defeats, they conceded at least 2 goals.

Profitable in-inplay opportunities
  • although these play offs between 2nd-5th are "one off" unique events, PAOK at home do look solid and Asteras have a record of failure. I would side with PAOK today. Ideally, we'll see 2 PAOK goals at least 
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6pm - Marienlyst v Hvidovre - 1.78 away
Standout stats


Profitable in-inplay opportunities


745pm - Chelsea v Atl Madrid - 2.28 home

Standout stats
  • at the weekend , the market thought Chelsea would have to decide between the title and the Champions League, but Chelsea stepped up and won 0-2. They bring this confidence into tonight's match.
  • They must retain their clean sheet as they did not score an away goal. Atl Madrid''s job is simple. Score, and play for a win or a score draw. If they score first, then they will be at a huge advantage.
  • Again little research to do.
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