Wednesday, 2 April 2014

4th APRIL 2014 FRIDAY - SATURDAY

315pm  - Spartak Moscow v Ural - 1.54 home
Standout stats
  • only 1 head to head of interest is a 0-2 win for Spartak Moscow
  • this is 5th v 12th and so tight is the top of the russian league that Spartak will be kept honest
Spartak Moscow
  • no win in 4 matches
  • failed to score in only 6 this season, but did fail to score in 3 of their last 4
  • only 1 home defeat v 1st in the league

Ural
  • 3 wins in 4 is great form post winter break
  • they have kept only 3 clean sheets all season
  • 3 defeats in their last 4 aways 
  • lost to 1st, 2nd and 3rd, but beat 5th 0-1. Where does 4th fit in away from home?
Profitable in-play opportunities
  • Limited stats for Russia. Ural have enjoyed the winter break, Spartak have not. BUT Spartak at home are strong and are unlikely to lose. 
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We have a set of matches below from secondary leagues.

5pm - Lokomotiva v Osijek - 1.6 home
This is a Croatian league match. Again we have a home team expected to win, so react accordingly if Osijek take the lead. The Croatian league is featured at www.soccerstats.com


530pm - Hvidovre v Marienlyst - 1.44 home
This is a Danish league match. As above, the home team is a strong favourite. The Danish league is featured at www.soccerstats.com

7pm - Le Havre v CA Bastia - 1.48 home
This is a French Ligue 2 match. French Ligue 2 is featured at www.soccerstats.com

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7pm - Zwolle v Groningen - 2.4 home
Standout stats
  • a run of 3 head to heads with both teams scoring ended in 2013 with a 1-0 and 0-0 in favour of Groningen
  • That Groningen 1-0 was courtesy of a 90th minute goal
  • this is 9th v 8th and the teams are 8/9 points from relegation.
Zwolle
  • have scored and conceded in 15 of their last 19 matches - typically Dutch!
  • unbeaten in 5 at home with with 3 draws book-ended by 2 wins
  • only 1 clean sheet in 16 matches
  • only 1 0-0 at halftime in 16 matches
  • all bar one of Zwolle's wins this season have come v teams below them in the league. Groningen are 1 position above them!
  • have scored and conceded in 11 of 14 home matches
  • have scored in their last 9 home matches
  • 6 0-0's at halftime at home
  • have scored first in only 8 of 15 home matches, yet lost only 3 all season at home.
Groningen
  • 2 consecutive wins includes a 2-3 against PSV which must have motivated them
  • have scored and conceded in 7 of their last 10 matches
  • only 1 clean sheet in 16 matches
  • only 3 wins away from home scoring 3-3-4!
  • Have scored and conceded in 10 of 14 away matches
  • have conceded in their last 8 away matches
  • only 3 0-0's at halftime away
  • have conceded 16 away goals in both halves

Profitable in-play opportunities
  • the odds tell you the market hasn't got a scooby doo who's going to win. What we can see though is that there is a chance both teams will score. That said, the last 2 meetings have nearly been 0-0 so any involvement must include a 0-0 pre-match insurance bet
  • Zwolle only tend to win against teams below them in the league but what do we make of a team right beside them in the league? 
  • both sides have only had 1 clean sheet in 16 matches so statistically we should not see a 0-0
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715pm - Teplice v Pribram - 1.55 home
This is one of those matches where you just note that we have a home team at odds of 1.55. This is the Czech league so stats are easily checkable via www.soccerstats.com should Pribram score first. I don't think it warrants research as I'd rather fill my precious time doing more meaningful matches for the weekend.

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730pm - Hamburg v Leverkusen - 2.24 away
Standout stats
  • 3 draws and 3 Leverkusen wins in the last 6 head to heads suggests they will not lose today based solely on history
  • 17th v 4th. Not sure that leverkusen can threaten top 3, perhaps they have enough matches remaining. Hamburg for their part need points desperately. So tight is the bottom that 3 points now could signal survival.
Hamburg
  • only 2 wins in 15 matches , both came at home and recently.
  • unbeaten in their last 4 at home
  • have kept only 4 clean sheets this season
  • at home, Hamburg tend to lose to teams above them ( the Dortmund win was v a Dortmund with a Champions League match upcoming)
  • only 2 0-0's at halftime at home
  • no 0-0's this season
Leverkusen
  • only 1 win in 8 blew any chances of landing a blow.
  • have scored and conceded in 9 of their last 11 matches
  • have failed to score in only 5 matches this season
  • only 3 draws all season and only 1 away
  • tight matches against bottom 3 with a 0-1 and a 1-0
  • only 3 0-0's at halftime away
Profitable in-play opportunities
  • head to heads point to Leverkusen not winning this match
  • other angles ? Leverkusen tend to avoid the draw. We may see a goal before halftime statistically but I must warn you Leverkusen v bottom 3 away this season see 1-0 and 0-1
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730pm - Marseille v Ajaccio - 1.37 home
Standout stats
  • 2 wins and a draw for Marseille in the last 3 head to heads
  • the last match at Marseille between these 2 was a 0-0
  • this is 6th v bottom and you feel Ajaccio's position is unsalvageable
Marseille
  • no win in 5 matches currently
  • have had 3 1-0 scorelines at home, 1 win and 2 consecutive losses
  • Marseille have failed to score in 3 of their last 5 matches
  • easy wins, scoring 2 at least, v 15th and lower.
  • Marseille have not conceded more than 1 goal at home v 10th and lower
  • 3 0-0's at halftime at home
  • no 0-0 at home this season
Ajaccio
  • only 3 wins all season, both teams scored and conceded in them 
  • have scored and conceded in 12 of their last 14 matches 
  • only 2 clean sheets all season
  • have conceded at least 2 goals in 5 of their last 6 away matches
  • only 1 away win v 17th ( 2nd bottom)
  • have conceded in their last 27 matches
  • 6 0-0's at halftime away from home is about 40% of matches
  • have conceded 22 of their 30 conceded away goals in the 2nd half.
Profitable in-play opportunities
  • is seems a hopeless task for Ajaccio but they do keep on scoring, so perhaps both teams will continue to score .
  • Marseille at their best will score at least 2 goals today, so 2-1 could be a viable trading option. 
  • If the match is 0-0 at halftime, expect Ajaccio to concede 2nd half, as that's when they concede most
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The Irish league is about as reliable as a motor bought off Frank Butcher. I will recount the odds below and we have 3 short priced teams at home, but will not research. If you are trading this evening, put the Irish league up at www.futbol24.com and pay it cursory attention if Bray/Athlone or Cobh take the lead.
The Irish league is at www.soccerstats.com

745pm - Bohemians v Bray - 1.67 home

745pm - Drogheda v Athlone - 1.56 home

745pm - Galway FC v Cobh Ramblers - 1.48 home

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745pm - Leicester v Sheff Wed - 1.51 home
Standout stats
  • Sheff Wed have won the last 2 meetings 1-0 and 2-1 -potential bogey team?
  • 1st v 14th. 7 points clear of 2nd, I'm sure Lei cester will want to continue along the automatic promotion route! Sheff Wed Join a merry band in mid-table mediocrity
Leicester
  • unbeaten in 20 matches
  • 7 wins and 2 draws in their last 9 matches. A nice DRT last match when 0-1 down to strugglers Yeovil, only to pounce with a 90th minute equaliser
  • have only failed to score in 3 this season 
  • only 1 defeat at home was v Nottingham Forest.
  • have scored a minimum of 2 goals in all bar 1 match v 8th and below at home
  • have scored in their last 11 home matches and in their last 24 matches
  • only 3 0-0's at halftime at home
  • Nugent and Vardy the 2 scorers at home who will be missed if not playing
  • 41 goals scored at home. 
Sheff Utd
  • no draw in 13 matches
  • lost their last 3 away matches without scoring. Lost the last 2 1-0
  • Last 4 wins have all come at home
  • only 3 away wins, all to nil. Will they really keep Leicester to a clean sheet?
  • Draw, Loss, Loss, Loss v top 5 away this season
  • 4 0-0's at halftime away from home
  • have conceded 14 goals away in the 15 minutes before and after halftime
Profitable in-play opportunities
  • if seems Sheff Wed are going nowhere fast so the onus is on Leicester to pile the pressure on the rest of the top 5 and ensure automatic promotion. 
  • expect a goal from Leicester. They are statistically more likely to score than not ( and 2 goals + is expected).
  • there is a possibility for a 0-0 halftime score lay. I would hope it stays 0-0 up to the 30th minute when Sheff Utd become more vulnerable.
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745pm - Ross Co v Inverness CT - 2.58 away
Standout stats
  • no conclusive leader in head to heads. Ross County and Inverness have both won last 2 meetings
  • 9th v 5th
Ross County
  • only 2 wins in 10 matches 
  • 2 consecutive 1-1's and 3 1-1's in the last 5 matches
  • 2 consecutive 1-1's at home
  • only 3 clean sheets in 23 matches
  • have conceded in their last 5 home matches
  • 70% over 2.5 goals at home
  • only 3 0-0's at halftime at home
  • no 0-0's t home
Inverness
  • only 1 win in 7 matches so both sides today rather luke warm recent form
  • have conceded 5-2-2 in their last 3 away matches
  • no draw in 7 away matches
  • failed to score in 43% of away matches and kept clean sheets in 50% of away matches
  • 6 0-0's at halftime away from home
Profitable in-play opportunities
  • a messy match. 70% over 2.5 goals at home playes 38% overs away from home and an away side with 1/2 of away matches keeping clean sheets and failing to score in 43% of away matches.
  • BUT with Ross county keeping only 3 clean sheets in 23 matches and no 0-0's at home, I'd expect a goal at some point.  That's probably my angle here. Lay a 2nd half 0-0  - look at the odds -2.54 for the favourite. The market doesn't know wh'll win!!
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8pm - Almeria v Osasuna - 2.4 home
Standout stats
  • only 1 recent head to head of relevance was a 0-1 away win for Almeria. Look at the odds again. 2.4 signals a toughie and be aware that I'm only researching as it's a short coupon today. Still we may uncover strong stats, who knows?
  • this is 17th v 18th and I think my research will end there. This is the old proverbial relegation 6 pointer!
  • I will monitor if 0-0 for a while and if the away side take a 0-2 lead. Can we really have faith in 2 relegation tusslers?
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SATURDAY

7am - Iwata v Thespakusatsu Gunma - 1.32 home
Standout stats

Profitable in-play opportunities


12pm - FC Koln v Arminia Bielefeld - 1.36 home
Standout stats

Profitable in-play opportunities


1215pm - Wigan v Leeds - 1.56 home
Standout stats

Profitable in-play opportunities


1245pm - Dundee Utd v Celtic - 1.62 away
Standout stats

Profitable in-play opportunities


1245pm - Man City v Southampton - 1.33 home
Standout stats
  • both sides have scored in the last 5 head to heads
  • It's been tight in the Premiership between these 2.1-1 last time out
  • 3rd v 8th. City must turn the screw and make their games in hand count, particularly at home
Man City
  • have lost only 5 matches this season
  • 5 clean sheets in their last 6 matches
  • have failed to score in only 4 matches this season
  • all wins at home bar a 0-1 v Chelsea
  • 71% over 2.5 goals at home and 57% over 3.5 goals at home
  • only 3 0-0's at halftime at home
  • have scored 48 at home and conceded only 9

Profitable in-play opportunities


1255pm - England (W) v Montenegro (W) - 1.01 home
Standout stats

Profitable in-play opportunities


130pm - Kryliya Sovetov v CSKA Moscow - 1.72 away
Standout stats

Profitable in-play opportunities


230pm - Augsburg v B Munich - 1.43 away
Standout stats

Profitable in-play opportunities


230pm - Eintracht Frankfurt v Mainz - 2.54 home
Standout stats

Profitable in-play opportunities


230pm - Nurnberg v Mgladbach - 2.22 away
Standout stats

Profitable in-play opportunities


230pm - Stuttgart v Freiburg - 1.9 home
Standout stats

Profitable in-play opportunities


230pm - W Bremen v Schalke - 2.02 away
Standout stats

Profitable in-play opportunities


3pm - Aston Villa v Fulham - 1.95 home
Standout stats

Profitable in-play opportunities


3pm - Atl Madrid v Villarreal - 1.55 home
Standout stats

Profitable in-play opportunities


3pm - Bournemouth v QPR - 2.46 home
Standout stats

Profitable in-play opportunities


3pm - Brentford v Notts Co - 1.44 home
Standout stats

Profitable in-play opportunities


3pm - Cardiff v C Palace - 2.4 home
Standout stats

Profitable in-play opportunities


3pm - Chesterfield v Newport County - 1.7 home
Standout stats

Profitable in-play opportunities


3pm - Falkirk v Cowdenbeath - 1.52 home
Standout stats

Profitable in-play opportunities


3pm - Hull v Swansea - 2.74 home
Standout stats

Profitable in-play opportunities


3pm - Newcastle v Man Utd - 2.02 away
Standout stats

Profitable in-play opportunities


3pm - Norwich v West Brom - 2.44 home
Standout stats

Profitable in-play opportunities


3pm - Nottm Forest v Millwall - 1.74 home
Standout stats

Profitable in-play opportunities


3pm - Partick v Hearts - 1.78 home
Standout stats

Profitable in-play opportunities


3pm - Rochdale v York City - 1.8 home
Standout stats

Profitable in-play opportunities


3pm - Shakhtar v Karpaty - illiquid
Standout stats

Profitable in-play opportunities


3pm - Slovan Liberec v Banik Ostrava - 1.84 home
Standout stats

Profitable in-play opportunities


3pm - Wolves v Peterborough - 1.64 home
Standout stats

Profitable in-play opportunities


330pm - SV Grodig v Red Bull Salzburg - 1.41 away
Standout stats

Profitable in-play opportunities


4pm - Paris St-G v Reims - 1.28 home
Standout stats

Profitable in-play opportunities


5pm - Barcelona v Betis - 1.06 home
Standout stats

Profitable in-play opportunities


5pm - Besiktas v Kayserispor - 1.69 home
Standout stats

Profitable in-play opportunities


5pm - Chievo v Verona - 2.44 home
Standout stats

Profitable in-play opportunities


5pm - Widzew Lodz v Wisla Krakow - 2.06 away
Standout stats

Profitable in-play opportunities


530pm - Chelsea v Stoke - 1.28 home
Standout stats

Profitable in-play opportunities


530pm - Dortmund v Wolfsburg - 1.49 home
Standout stats

Profitable in-play opportunities


545pm - Heerenveen v PSV - 1.82 away
Standout stats

Profitable in-play opportunities


6pm - Olhanense v Braga - 1.74 away
Standout stats

Profitable in-play opportunities


6pm - Zadar v Dinamo Zagreb - 1.61 away
Standout stats

Profitable in-play opportunities


645pm - Breda v Twente - 1.66 away
Standout stats

Profitable in-play opportunities


645pm - NEC Nijmegen v Cambuur - 2.3 home
Standout stats

Profitable in-play opportunities


7pm - Sociedad v Real Madrid - 1.56 away
Standout stats

Profitable in-play opportunities


730pm - ACS Poli Timisoara v Steaua Bucharest - 1.35 away
Standout stats

Profitable in-play opportunities


730pm - Lech Poznan v Jagiellonia Bialystock - 1.65 home
Standout stats

Profitable in-play opportunities


745pm - Inter v Bologna - 1.4 home
Standout stats

Profitable in-play opportunities


750pm - France (W) v Kazakhstan (W) - 1.01 home
Standout stats

Profitable in-play opportunities


815pm - Pacos Ferreira v Sp Lisbon - 1.76 away

Standout stats

Profitable in-play opportunities





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