I was correct about both teams scoring in the Brighton v Blackpool match, it was a pity though that Blackpool did not score first as I'd have had more confidence laying them
City were expected to score 2 at least, and they got 3. Aguero a welcome addition for fans. West Brom did score as per the stats.City made sure this time with 3 1st half goals.
Villareal did concede as I predicted and indeed the "ultra tight" Malaga turned up.
1215pm - Leyton Orient v Wolves - 2.08 away
Standout stats
Profitable in-play opportunities
1245pm - Silkeborg v Marienlyst - 1.18 home
1pm - Waldhof Mannheim v Pfullendorf - 1.31 home
130pm - Fortuna Sittard v Almere City - 1.75 home
130pm - Volendam v Achilles 29 - 1.23 home
130pm - Willem II v Telstar - 1.19 home
Standout stats
- 2 consecutive head to head wins for Telstar. Should 1.19 shots Willem be worried?
- this is 1st v 17th .A win required by both sides for completely different reasons!
Willem II
- unbeaten in 12. Their only 2 defeats in 18 ,matches were 0-1 home defeats
- have scored 3-1-2-7-3-3 in recent home matches
- have scored in their last 12 matches
- 10 over 2.5 goals matches in their last 11
- only 2 clean sheets in their last 15 matches
- have beaten all teams 12th and lower at home bar 16th
- have conceded in their last 10 away matches
Telstar
- only 1 win in 6 matches was their last away match
- only 5 clean sheets all season
- have conceded 8 and 5 in their last 2 home matches, which while not away matches, could betray some defensive worries OR an over reaction defensively today
- only 4 away wins, but a close 4-3 loss away to 2nd, 2 1-1 draws with 3rd and 4th away and a 0-1 win v 5th away - interesting!
- no away 0-0
- head to heads and Telstar's record against top 5 away suggests 1.19 is far too short for a Willem II side obviously in fine fettle.
- Both teams could score today. For all their solidity, Willem are conceding regularly
- Based on recent form of course, Willem II are totally dominant, they have scored 3-1-2-7-3-3 in recent matches and face a Telstar team who conceded 13 goals in 2 recent matches.
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2pm - FC Midtjylland v Viborg - 1.54 home
2pm - Falkenbergs v Elfsborg - 1.76 away
230pm - Valerenga v Sandnes Ulf - 1.68 home
230pm - Viking v Haugesund - 1.64 home
3pm - Brighton v Blackpool - 1.51 home
Standout stats
- a 6-1 Brighton win and a 0-1 Brighton away win in 2013 head to heads
- this is 6th v 22nd. And as befits this time of the year, both teams need the points.Brighton have at least 4 teams threatening their play-off spot so really must win at home. Blackpool find themselves in the relegation zone and so tight it is at the bottom, that 3 points today could secure eventual survival!
Brighton
- 3 losses in their last 12 all came in a cluster. The last 5 matches saw 3 draws and 2 wins.
- 2 recent home defeats ended with a win latest
- 6 home defeats, 4 were v the top 9 and there was a worrying loss v 2nd bottom 1-2.
- that seems to be an abberation, as we see 5 clean sheets in 6 matches against 16th and lower at home
- 8 0-0's at halftime at home, 38% of matches
- have scored 19 of their 28 goals at home in the 2nd half.
Blackpool
- only 2 wins in 26 matches were both 1-0 home wins
- 9 defeats in their last 12 matches
- only 3 clean sheets in 26 matches
- only 3 wins away 2 of which were against 9th and 10th. have scored and conceded in all away matches v top 7
- no win in 14 away
- 5 0-0's at halftime away
- have conceded 23 of their 38 away conceded goals in the 2nd half
Profitable in-play opportunities
- Brighton have the best of the recent head to heads but have unconvincing form despite only 3 losses in 12 matches. The odds are a reflection of Blackpool whose balloon has burst.
- Only 2 wins in 26 suggests they will not win today. No win in 14 away matches reitereated that.
- We might see both teams score though! Blackpool have scored and conceded so far in the matches they have played away to top 7 sides.
3pm - Derby v Barnsley - 1.57 home
3pm - Kidderminster v Nuneaton - 1.63 home
3pm - Preston v Shrewsbury - 1.64 home
3pm - QPR v Watford - 2.2 home
Standout stats
Profitable in-play opportunities
3pm - Rotherham v Port Vale - 1.58 home
3pm - UCD v Cork City - 1.41 away
4pm - Sirius v Varbergs BoIS - 1.45 home
4pm - Vasalunds IF v Valsta Syrianska - 1.6 home
430pm - Malmo FF v Djurgardens - 1.58 home
5pm - Athlone v Dundalk - 1.28 away
5pm - Hajduk Split v Lokomotiva - 1.55 home
5pm - Molde v Sarpsborg - 1.36 home
5pm - Odd v Stabaek - 1.48 home
6pm - FC Copenhagen v Esbjerg - 1.83 home
620pm - Hammarby v Angelholms - 1.31 home
7pm - Shamrock Rovers v Bray - 1.27 home
715pm - FC Koln v Bochum - 1.51 home
8pm - Man City v West Brom - 1.24 home
Standout stats
- City are trying as hard as they can to ruin their league title aspirations. A draw against Sunderland when priced shorter than today did not help.
- City have kept clean sheets in the last 3 home head to heads, latterly a tight 1-0. The actual last head to head was a 2-3 away win for City
- this is 3rd v 16th. Both sides are on 33 matches played where teams around them are on 34 or 35, so they must both take advantage of this potential 6 points.
- West Brom have 3 points in hand over the bottom 3 and City have a potential 6 points to eat into the 9 point gap to Liverpool.
Man City
- only 1 win in 4 matches. Yes they did play Liverpool and Arsenal in that time, but a 2-2 at home to Sunderland?
- City have failed to score in only 4 matches all season
- they have only lost 1 match, v 2nd.They won the rest bar that 2-2 v Sunderland
- 75% over 2.5 goals at home ( 3/4 of matches)
- 3 0-0's at halftime at home but no fulltime 0-0's
- have scored 25 first half and 29 2nd half goals at home
- have scored first in 13 home matches
- have scored 7-4-5-2 against bottom 4 and are playing the 5th bottom side today
West Brom
- only 6 wins all season so statistically the probability of a win is 1 in 6
- only 2 defeats in 8 so are battling but 4 draws in those 8 is 4 won points but 8 dropped points!
- 2 wins away in their last 3 must give some hope
- have failed to score in only 3 of their last 17 matches
- only 2 clean sheets in 23 matches
- have a reasonable away record v the best. lost 4-1 away to Liverpool but a 2-2 draw with Chelsea, a 0-0 with Everton and a 1-1 with Tottenham betrays likely away tactics.
- 5 0-0's away from home at halftime
Profitable in-play opportunities
- the Sunderland Incident cannot be repeated for a Man City with 2 games in hand but 9 points to make up. There is hope as Liverpool keep conceding alarmingly so City really must win. Ditto West brom with only 3 points between them and relegation.
- Statistically, City are expected to score 2 at least ( as they did against Sunderland much to DRT'ers delight!).
- West Brom have interestingly failed to score in only 3 of their last 17 matches so may oblige today, I hope first! West Brom's record against top teams away is solid , albeit draws rather than wins which adds an interesting dimension into this match.
- I expect a City reaction to the 2-2 draw at lower odds v Sunderland
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8pm - Porto v Rio Ave - 1.28 home
Standout stats
- Porto are unbeaten in head to heads with all wins bar a 2-2 draw. There is a strong tendency for Porto to score at least 2 goals when they meet Rio Ave
- this is 3rd v 11th, Porto cannot really get to 2nd so will be seeking to protect 3rd place
- Rio Ave are thinking of their Algarve golfing holidays I feel. They are safe
Porto
- considering it is only very recently that Porto went through a season unbeaten, 6 defeats this season is a poor showing for a club suffering because they are a "selling club"
- 7 wins in their last 8 home matches sees Porto maintain a good home record.
- 5 of Porto's 6 defeats this season have been 1-0 so if Rio Ave score early on, consider an insurance on the 0-1 scoreline just incase.......
- 2 consecutive 3-1 wins now sees Porto scoring well and in line with the expectations of a 1.28 shot
- as Porto don't do 0-0's, the only times they have failed to score, they have lost.
- only 1 home defeat was a recent 0-1 v 4th
- Porto have never conceded more than 1 goal at home this season
- no draw in 8 at home
- 5 0-0's at halftime at home is about 39% of home matches
- Porto have conceded just 1 goal in the 1st half at home and scored 14
Rio Ave
- 5 of Rio Ave's last 6 wins have been 1-0 so that 0-1 insurance if they score first is compounded here.
- only 3 wins in their last 15 matches though sees struggles
- only 2 clean sheets in 11 matches
- Rio Ave were unbeaten in 3 until Benfica won 4-0 away latest
- BUT despite that loss to 1st, they have been good away to the best, 1-1 draw with 2nd, 0-1 win v 4th and 1-1 with 5th
- 7 0-0's at halftime away is just over 50% of away matches
Profitable in-play opportunities
- and interesting match statistically. Porto lose when not scoring. Rio Ave recently have been winning 1-0 when they win, so back 0-1 insurance bet if Rio Ave score first and then lay them in the match odds market.
- This seems a dead rubber for Rio Ave so despite s solid showing against the top 5 away, Porto's need to retain 3rd spot , and their comfort in head to heads, should ensure they are motivated enough tonight
- this might be 0-0 at halftime so don't be surprised.
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9pm - Malaga v Villarreal - 2.72 away
Standout stats
- 5 matches remain so these 2 would want to ensure safety ( Malaga in 13th) and try for 4th spot (5th probably more realistic) for 7th spot Villareal
- both sides have scored in tight encounters recently , hence I suppose the 2.72 for the favourite ( roughly translated from the bookies as " I haven't got a scooby doo mate!"
malaga
- 4 wins in 7 sees Malaga trying to ensure survival.
- they lost their 2 home matches before a recent 4-1 win against struggling Granada
- Malaga are really tight when the big boys come to town. 0-1 defeats to the top 3, 1-2 loss v 4th and a rather anomolous 3-2 win v Sevilla , was followed by another 0-1 loss to 6th and a 0-0 v 8th. You get the idea!!
- all wins bar 1 for Malaga have come against 11th and lower
- have conceded in their last 6 home matches
- 5 0-0's at halftime at home is about 31% of home matches
Villareal
- inconsistent would describe Villareal, a win is followed by a draw is followed by a loss is followed by a win.........
- 3 losses away and a 0-1 win in the last 4
- have failed to score in only 8 all season
- only 3 clean sheet in 19 matches though
- only 1 away draw was a 0-0 suggesting Villareal don't do score draws away from home
- against 10th and lower , have lost to 14th, 17th, and 20th away
- no draw in 13 away
- only 2 0-0's at halftime away
- only 1 0-0 all season
- not a match which greatly appeals.Tough to split these 2 so says the head to heads and the betting market.
- Will the ultra tight Malaga turn up today? The kind of home team that engender a 0-1 , or 0-0 when the big boys turn up ?
- Statistically Villareal are highly likely to concede at some stage, which might bring a 1-1 into play?
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