Barcelona were 0-1 down in the first half ( I normally like to lay their opponents in the halftime market in these cases) and yet again came into halftime leading 1-2 with a beautiful 2nd goal by Messi. Barcelona ended their run of away matches without a win, and the 2-3 scoreline finished its sequence too with a 1-4 final result.
Which Catania side did you,er, side with? The head to heads "bogey team" or did you expect Parma's current form to shine? If you opted for the former, you'd have won with a 0-0 final score. Head to heads are so important it seems!
I'll do a weekend review when I have time ( newsletter week this week!) as I think there's a lot to learn, particularly in being flexilble and choosing your markets ( 0-0 correct score this weekend seemed to be the most profitable angle in!)
I have been distracted these last 2 weekends from live chats for which I apologise. I always try and make sure I do Saturday and Sunday at the very least, because there are a wealth of matches.
On to today, and the in-play coupon is funereal in its outlook. A smattering of matches,.
745pm - Derby v QPR - 2.42 home
Standout stats
- November 2013 saw QPR win 2-1
- this is 4th v 3rd so is as tight as the betting market suggests
Derby
- only 2 defeats in 15 matches
- Derby have won 6 of their last 7 home matches, the only aberaration a 0-1 loss to Wigan.
- Derby have had 3 0-0's at halftime in their last 4 matches.
- Derby have failed to score in only 4 matches all season.
- have kept only 5 clean sheets
- all losses, bar 1, have come v top 6 sides.
- In fact, Derby have lost all home and away encounters v top 6 sides.
- no 0-0 this season
- have scored 19 of their 27 home goals in the 2nd half .
QPR
- are unbeaten in 6 matches and have scored 2-3-2-2-3 in their last 5 matches
- only 2 away wins in their last 9 away matches is poor form.
- have scored and conceded in their last 5 matches.
- 3 away defeats, 2 have come against 2nd and 5th ( without scoring)
- have had 9 0-0's at halftime away from home
- have scored 10 of their 13 away goals in the 2nd half.
profitable in play opportunities
- too tight to call I feel . This is probably a match I will leave alone.
- Stats wise, Derby lose v top 5 sides , which would suggest advantage QPR today, until we learn QPR have lost to 2nd and 5th away without scoring, so they do lose away to top 5 sides.
- the strongest stat is that of QPR and halftime 0-0's. Mix that in with the fact these 2 do the majority of their scoring 2nd half, and we could have an argument for a 0-0 pre match back to lay ?
- this match is too close to call for me though.
9pm - Celta Vigo v Ath Bilbao - 2.28 away
Standout stats
- we've seen a few of these matches lately. In head to heads, it seems to be the home side which does not lose.
- 1-1, 1-1, 1-0 the last 3 head to heads at Celta
- this is 11th v 4th, and I'd have expected a team 4th to be a little shorter in the betting.
Celta
- only 1 draw in 17 matches
- have won 3 of their last 4 matches
- have won 3 of their last 4 home matches, scoring and conceding in each one.
- have only kept 3 clean sheets all season.
- have failed to score in home matches v 1st and 5th.
- have conceded in the last 8 home matches and last 10 overall.
- have only had 1 0-0 all season
- have scored first in only 2 of 11 home matches.
Ath Bilbao
- only 2 defeats in 15 matches and they came away.
- have scored and conceded in 8 of their last 10 matches.
- have scored 6-4-5 goals before a 1-1 v Real madrid in their last 4 matches.
- have only had 2 0-0's at halftime in their last 15 matches
- have failed to score in only 3 matches all season
- have failed to beat any of the top 9 away from home, losing 4 and drawing 1.
- have conceded in their last 7 matches
- no 0-0's this season and only 1 0-0 at halftime away
- have scored first in only 3 of 10 aways.
Profitable in play opportunities
- not a match which appeals in a poor day on the in-play coupon. Although I would avoid it myself, what do the stats point to?
- these 2 sides avoid the 0-0 fulltime score so exploit that if 0-0 late on.
- it is 50/50 who will score first, both sides have poor stats in that regard.
- Celta tend to concede at home and overall . Will that continue today? Ath have only failed to score in 3 all season, so that might continue today.
- Ath Bilbao fail to beat top 9 away, so will 11th offer some respite?
- It is interesting to note, that before Real Madrid, Ath Bilbao scored some 15 goals in 3 matches. Will they burst into life today, in a match where traditionally the scorelines are 1-0 or 1-1.
- Stats wise, Ath Bilbao seem favoured?
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