Sunday, 23 February 2014

sunday



sunday 23rd Feb

11am - Rayo Vallecano v Sevilla - 2.15 away
Standout stats

Profitable in play opportunities

12pm - Dinamo Bucharest V Viitorul Constanta - 1.4 home
Standout stats

Profitable in play opportunities

1pm - Toulouse v PSG - 1.45 away

Standout stats

  • PSG have won the last 7 head to heads , scoring 2+ in each match
  • this is 10th v 1st
Toulouse
  • only 2 defeats in 11
  • have only won 1 of their last 7 home matches
  • only 6 clean sheets all season
  • failed to score in 3 of their last 4 home matches
  • no wins at home to top 9 
PSG
  • only 1 defeat all season
  • 2 consecutive 1-1 away draws
  • PSG have scored and conceded in their last 4 away matches
  • the 4 away matches against teams between 5th and 12th resulted in wins. It is elesewhere that PSG have struggled away
  • PSG have conceded in their last 5 away matches
  • no 0-0 this season
  • 58 goals scored this season but only 20 goals away tells you that PSG struggle on the road.
  • Ibrahimovic and Cavani have scored 25 home goals between them but only 7 away goals.

Profitable in play opportunities

  • head to heads are conclusive - PSG tend to win
  • Toulouse struggle v top 9 at home ( but that does not necessarily translate into a defeat!)
  • PSG have a 2 match 1-1 sequence away they'd like to end. Their goalscoring drops significantly away from home. PSG have conceded away recently, does this open the game up to a both teams to score punt ( and offer us a DRT if Toulouse score first)?


130pm - Liverpool v Swansea - 1.33 home

Standout stats

  • 5-0 and 2-2 in the 2 2013 head to heads 
  • this is 4th v 10th. Swansea are only 4 points from relegation so don't be fooled by top 10 status
Liverpool
  • only Man City and Chelsea have beaten Liverpool in their last 13 matches
  • Liverpool have won 9 of their last 10 home matches.
  • Liverpool have scored 2+ in 6 of their last 7 matches.
  • Liverpool have only had 1 0-0 at halftime all season
  • have scored in their last 16 matches
  • no 0-0's this season
  • have scored 26 and conceded only 2 goals at home in the first half
Swansea
  • only 2 wins in 12 matches
  • have failed to win in their last 7 away matches
  • failed to score in 3 of their last 5 away matches
  • only 3 clean sheets in 17 matches
  • 10 defeats and a draw against top 8
  • have conceded in their last 10 away matches


Profitable in play opportunities


  • Liverpool matches should see a goal before halftime.
  • Potential there for Liverpool to score as many as 3 goals 

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130pm - Newcastle v Aston Villa - 2.05 home

Standout stats

  • both teams have scored in the lsat 5 head to heads, and Newcastle have won 3 of the last 4 by a 2-1 scoreline
  • this is 9th v 12th
Newcastle
  • have failed to score in their last 4 matches at home.
  • failed to score in 7 of their last 8 matches
  • have conceded in their last 8 home matches
  • only 1 0-0 at home
Aston Villa
  • only 2 wins in 12
  • failed to score in their last 2 matches
  • have scored and conceded in all matches away to top 8 sides. They are playing 9th today

Profitable in play opportunities

  • a match of limited appeal. Angles in include Newcastle breaking a 4 match home run without scoring.
  • these are 2 out of form teams who are unreliable 


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130pm - Vitesse V RKC Waalwijk - 1.3 home

Standout stats

  • I'm not dutch football's biggest fan because it can be very inconsistent
  • goals anyone? both teams have scored in the last 5 matches and there have been a total of 4-3-4-5-6 when these 2 meet 
  • this is 4th v 15th
Vitesse
  • only 2 defeats in 15 matches came in the last 3 matchs.
  • only 1 win in 7 so harming their title hopes.
  • have failed to score in their last 3 matches, the only 3 times they have failed to score all season. Surely this must end?
  • only 6 clean sheets this season
  • have failed to score in their last 2 home matches
  • did have a 0-0 v 14th but scored and cocneded in a win and draw v 16th and 17th at home
  • Only1 0-0 at halftime at home
RKC
  • have scored and conceded in 9 of their last 10 matches
  • have scored and conceded in 9 of their last 10 away matches
  • only failed to score in 1 match this season
  • 0-0's away to 1st and 2nd, playing 4th today
  • scored and conceded in all other away matches
  • 3 0-0's at halftime away
  • have scored 11 of their 13 away goals in the 2nd half.



Profitable in play opportunities

  • both teams should score and concede but I'd do an insurance bet on the 0-0 incase RKC keep another 0-0 v top 4 teams away, AND Vitesse continue to fail to score.
  • Vitesse's fail to score sequence must end at some stage, and perhaps today is the day. at least that's what the market is telling us.
  • RKC like 2nd half action so if they are 2-0 down at halftime, I would lay Vitesse and hope Vitesse get a consolation.


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130pm - Ajax V AZ Alkmaar - 1.35 home

Standout stats

  • famous last words, but Ajax actually look dependable at home this season
  • 2013 meeting have seen a 0-3 Az win, 2-3 Ajax win, 2-2 cup draw, 3-2 az home win so if you don't want to go for a team, go for goals?
  • this is 1st v 7th
AJAX
  • 10 wins and 2 1-1 draws in their last 12 matches
  • 5 consecutive home wins keeping 4 clean sheets in 5 matches
  • failed to score in only 3 matches
  • only one home defeat v 4th , a 0-1
  • have scored in their last 12 matches
  • only 1 0-0 all season
  • 5 0-0's at halftime at home
  • have scored 29 and conceded just 4 goals at home this season
  • no opponent has led at halftime at Ajax
AZ
  • only 2 wins in 12 matches
  • only 1 away win in 6 matches
  • failed to score in only 4 matches this season
  • all losses bar 2 have come away from home but conversely 2-2 away v 3rd and 0-2 win away to 4th.
  • no 0-0's this season
  • 3 0-0's at halftime away


Profitable in play opportunities

  • have already beaten Ajax 3-2 this season, part of a sequence of head to heads with both teams scoring 2 . 
  • On current form, advantage ajax with the unbeaten 12 match run featuring 10 wins and scoring in last 12. 
  • If AZ lead 1st half, lay them in the halftime score market.
  • both teams could reasonably score today


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2pm - Inter v Cagliari - 1.44 home

Standout stats

  • Inter have not won the last 4 meetings, 3 score draws and a Cagliari home win
  • this is 5th v 15th
Inter
  • only 3 wins in 12 matches but did win the last 2 matches
  • 3 clean sheets in 4 home matches for Inter a sign of new defensive bent at home?
  • 5 0-0's at halftime in 8 betrays this defensive bent
  • only 1 defeat at home was against Roma
  • undefeated in 8 home matches
  • 6 0-0's at halftime at home 
  • Only 1 0-0 all season
Cagliari
  • 5 defeats and a win in their last 6 matches ( that win was a home penalty 1-0)
  • 3 consecutive 0-0's followed by 2 1-0 defeats sees Cagliari tough to beat away , yet equally finding it very difficult to score a goal
  • only 4 clean sheets all season
  • no away win this season albeit 3 away draws v top 6
  • 6 0-0's at halftime away



Profitable in play opportunities

  • this could be halftime 0-0 so don't be too surprised.  3 clean sheets at home in 4 matches for Inter, plays a Cagliari with 3 0-0's and 2 1-0 losses away in their last 5 matches.
  • This could be a win to nil for Inter Milan has they have only had one 0-0 all season. 1-0, 2-0 look obvious. More scope I suppose with the 2-0.


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2pm - Sampdoria v Milan - 2.2 away
Standout stats

  • Milan are great DRT candidates despite the odds relaying the fact this could be a tough match to call
  • 0-1 ( Samp win), 0-0 and 1-0 Milan win in the 3 most recent head to heads
  • this is 12th v 9th
Sampdoria
  • unbeaten in their last 6 home matches
  • failed to score in only 3 of their last 18 matches
  • 3 home clean sheets in their last 5 home matches
  • it's a table of 2 halves. Against 10th and above, no wins at all, but at home draws to 6th, 7th and 10th were score draws
  • Do fine against teams below them in the league. Milan are top 10 currently
  • have scored in their last 9 home matches
  • 6 0-0's at halftime at home but no fulltime 0-0's all season
Milan
  • only 3 defeats in 13 matches v Inter Milan ( derby), Sassuolo ( Milan were 0-2 up), and Napoli 
  • for all that they are having a poor season, Milan have failed to score in only 3 games this season
  • are yet to play 10th-14th away but have not won away v top 8
  • have conceded in their last 6 away matches
  • have scored 10 away goals in the last 1/4 hour of matches


Profitable in play opportunities

  • Sampdoria tend to score draw most teams in the top 10, and with Milan conceding recently, there's a chance both teams could score. Milan have scored in all bar 3 matches this season.
  • Sampdoria are unbeaten in their last 6 at home  .
  • 1-1 and 2-2 possible starting scorelines and cover any team 2-0 up


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2pm - Udinese v Atalanta  - 1.8 home

Standout stats

  • Atalanta have won the last 2 head to heads, albeit at their patch.. It seems to be "advantage home side" historically.
  • 13th v 14th. Identical in all aspects bar the goals difference
Udinese
  • unbeaten in 3, have scoring 3-3-2 in those 3 matches
  • a run of 3 home defeats conceding 3-3-2 coincidentally , ended with a 3-0 home win v Chievo latest
  • only 5 clean sheets 
  • all home defeats so far have come against 10th and higher
  • only 1 draw at home
  • no draw overall in 12 matches
  • 5 0-0's at halftime at home, nearly 50%
  • No 0-0 this season
Atalanta
  • like Udinese, only 3 draws all season
  • no draw in 8 includes only 3 wins, all at home
  • have failed to score in 3 matches away
  • only 5 clean sheets all season ( like Udinese).
  • only 1 win away was against 2nd bottom
  • have conceded in their last 8 away matches
  • 5 0-0's at halftime away ( again same as Udinese)
  • no 0-0 this season ( same as Udinese)
  • have conceded 11 goals in the last 1/4 hour of matches


Profitable in play opportunities

  • very similar stats
  • this should not end 0-0, so lay a late 0-0. 
  • Halftime score  - not sure , I'd leave it alone.
  • both teams tend to avoid draws. 
  • Udinese , much like Nurnberg yesterday, are in a rich vein of form ( albeit only 3 matches), scoring 3-3-2 goals. Head to heads do favour the home side NOT losing at least


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2pm - Banik Ostrava V Viktoria Plzen - 1.45 away
Standout stats

Profitable in play opportunities

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230pm - Eintracht Frankfurt v Werder Bremen - 1.72 home
Standout stats

  • Frankfurt are unbeaten in head to heads and have had 3 draws in 5 matches but won the last meeting in September 2013
  • this is 13th v 14th and identical stats , bar goal difference
Frankfurt
  • 2 defeats in 3 matches, albeit v Dortmund and Bayern away from home 
  • 2 consecutive home wins without conceding
  • have failed to score in only 5 matches this season
  • only 5 clean sheets this season
  • unbeaten home and away v 12th and below, but note the 4 score draws !!
  • have scored in 9 home matches
  • no 0-0 this season
  • only 2 0-0's at home at halftime
  • have scored 7 home goals in the last 1/4 hour of the first half, so maybe lay the 0-0 halftime score at about the half hour mark if it is still 0-0
Werder Bremen
  • only 2 wins in 15 matches 
  • 3-3-4-3-3 conceded away in the last 5 matches. Oh dear! But they were against exclusively top 8 sides 
  • only 2 clean sheets in 12 matches 
  • Werder are unbeaten against teams below them, but are playing a team directly above them.
  • have scored in their last 6 away but conceded in their last 6 aways
  • only 2 0-0's at halftime away
  • have conceded 7 goals directly after halftime away


Profitable in play opportunities

  • conceding 16 goals in the last 5 aways is dire but contextually, Werder were playing the top 8 so maybe we'll see an improved performance today against easier opponents?
  • this should not end 0-0 so act appropriately if 0-0 for a while.
  • Tough for me to write off Werder as I said above , their poor away form down to playing top 8 teams in sequence.
  • Frankfurt are unbeaten in head to heads. Perhaps that's the key angle in here.
  • We might see a goal before halftime here


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330pm - Salzburg V Admira Wacker - 1.15 home
Standout stats

Profitable in play opportunities

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330pm - Twente V Feyenoord - 1.9 home
Standout stats

  • Win, Draw, Win, for Twente in the last 3 head to heads
  • this is 2nd v 3rd so could be tighter than the odds suggest
Twente



Profitable in play opportunities

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4pm - Norwich v Tottenham - 1.85 away
Standout stats

  • Norwich are unbeaten in the last 2 home meetings, albeit one was a cup match
  • this is 16th v 5th
Norwich
  • only 1 win in 11
  • Norwich have kept 3 consecutive clean sheets at home
  • not bad at home to top 6. Norwich lost to Chelsea, drew 0-0 with Man City, and drew 2-2 with Everton
  • 7 0-0's at halftime at home
Spurs ( Sherwood's Spurs)
  • only 1 defeat against Manchester City
  • 4 wins and a draw away under Sherwood
  • Spurs have scored in all matches under Tim Sherwood
  • 2 consecutive clean sheets
  • only lost to 2nd and 3rd away this season
  • have scored 15 of their 23 goals in the 2nd half


Profitable in play opportunities


  • Norwich have drawn twice against the top sides at home, but they are currently woefully inconsistent
  • Norwich have kept 3 consecutive home clean sheets and I would perhaps back 0-0 pre-match incase they defend for their lives.Add Spurs 2 consecutive clean sheets into the mix and we could see a long period of 0-0.
  • Spurs tend to score most 2nd half so I would not be alarmed with a 0-0 at halftime and would favour Spurs NOT to lose.


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4pm - Real Betis v Athletic Bilbao - 2.3 away
Standout stats

Profitable in play opportunities

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4pm - Rijeka V Osijek - 1.3 home
Standout stats

Profitable in play opportunities

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430pm - Hannover v Bayern Munich - 1.25 away

Standout stats

  • Bayern have won the last 5 head to heads , scoring 2 in each ( minimum)
  • this is 11th v 1st
Hannover
  • only 3 wins in 14 matches
  • only 1 loss at home.
  • 2 consecutive 2-0 defeats ( away)
  • only 2 0-0's at halftime in 15 matches
  • are yet to play top 3 at home and have beaten 4th, 5th, 6th 7th
  • only 3 0-0's at halftime at home
  • have scored 8 goals at home in the last 1/4 hour so watch out for a late late show.
Bayern
  • all wins bar 2 draws
  • 13 consecutive wins
  • 8 clean sheets in the last 10 matches.
  • only 1 of the last 14 matches saw a 0-0 at halftime
  • Bayern have scored in all matches


Profitable in play opportunities

  • all about Bayern as usual. 2+ goals expected. Do note Hannover have only lost 1 match but have not played top 3 at home
  • Bayern have a good record of getting a goal before halftime recently.
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5pm - Standard Liege V Gent - 1.45 home

Standout stats

  • this is 1st v 7th
  • 3 clean sheets for Standard in the last 4 head to heads, the exception a 1-0 Gent win
Standard
  • only 1 defeat this season.
  • 6 match winning run and 5 consecutive clean sheets
  • have failed to score in 3 matches 
  • 10 clean sheets in 13 matches
  • 5 wins and a 1-1 draw with Anderlecht in their last 6 matches
  • have scored 2 goals at least at home to 4th -14th inclusive. Playing 7th today
  • only 2 0-0s this season
Gent
  • unbeaten in 4 includes 2 draws recently
  • only 1 loss in 6 matches 
  • have failed to score in 5 this season
  • all wins bar 1 have come against 11th and lower home and away
  • no win away v top 5 away


Profitable in play opportunities

  • looks straightforward for Standard today, albeit 2 clean sheets in 3 for Gent might signal some resistance
  • a good run of form for Gent recently but telling - all wins bar 1 against 11th and lower


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530pm - Juventus v Torino - 1.25 home

Standout stats

  • this is a Turin derbso this might have a bearing on the result 
  • only 3 recent head to heads, see juve win all without conceding
  • this is 1st v 7th
Juventus
  • only 1 defeat all season and they were 0-2 up in that!
  • 2 of Juve's 3 draws all season came in their last 2 away matches.
  • have scored and conceded in their last 6 matches
  • Juve have scored 3+ goals in 7 of their last 9 matches.
  • all wins at home scoring 2+ in all bar 1 match.
  • have scored in all matches
  • only 1 0-0 at halftime at home
  • have scored 36 at home and conceded only 8
Torino
  • only 2 defeats in 12 matches
  • only 1 defeat in 6 aways
  • have failed to score in only 4 matches.
  • have only played 2 of the top 6 away, losing to 3rd and 6th
  • have scored in their last 8 away matches
  • only 2 0-0's at halftime away

Profitable in play opportunities

  • historically Torino really have trouble scoring against Juventus which suggests we can speculate on a Juve win to nil
  • Lay the 0-0 halftime score looks logical but will the fact this is a derby have any bearing?
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6pm - Valencia v Granada CF - 1.5 home
Standout stats
  • ·        This is 9th v 12th
  • ·        Valencia have won the last 5 head to heads, 4 of them 1-0


Valencia
  • ·        Unbeaten in 5
  • ·        Only 1 defeat in 6 home matches was a 2-3 v real Madrid
  • ·        Failed to score in only 3 all season, and one of those was last match
  • ·        Have lost to 1st, 2nd, 6th and 16th at home, scoring and conceding in each match
  • ·        Have scored in their last 12 home matches
  • ·        Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home
  • ·        Have scored a massive 11 goals in the last ¼ hour of the first half. If 0-0 coming to the 30th minute, lay the 0-0 halftime score

Granada
  • ·        Only 3 draws all season
  • ·        Only 2 wins in their last 8 matches
  • ·        Failed to score in 4 of their last 5 away matches
  • ·        No draw home or away against top 10, includes 10 defeats and 2 wins.
  • ·        4 0-0’s at halftime


Profitable in play opportunities
  • ·        It seems tight when these 2 meet yet Valencia always seem to come through, typically 1-0.
  • ·        Lay the 0-0 halftime score after 30 minutes if still 0-0
  • ·        Granada avoid draws v top 10 and pretty much this season. Lay any late draw.
  • ·        Valencia have failed to score in only 3 matches this season, so faith in a goal if 0-0 or 0-1 to Granada.




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715pm - Porto V Estoril Praia - 1.45 home

Standout stats

  • this is 3rd v 4th but 9 points separate the 2. Porto are bang in there for a push for the title , caveat - they must win home games they're expected to win
  • Porto are unbeaten in head to heads and have won all homes. They have scored 2 goals in 5 of the last 6 head to heads 
Porto
  • only 3 losses all season, all away from home and all without Porto scoring.
  • a run of 4 wins to nil at home now, and scoring 4-3-3 in their last 3 home matches
  • have failed to score in only 3 matches this season
  • have drawn 1-1 at home to 5th, playing 4th today.
  • have conceded in only 2 home matches , and they happened to be against 2nd and 5th 
  • have scored in all home matches
  • 4 consecutive home clean sheets
  • no 0-0 this season
Estoril
  • no defeat in 8 matches. Only 5 defeats all season
  • have failed to score in only 4 matches this season
  • 4 away clean sheets in 5 matches
  • not played top 3 away and have faltered v 5th and 7th, conceding 2 and 3
  • only 2 0-0's this season


Profitable in play opportunities

  • Porto tend to score 2 historically
  • Porto haven't lost at home but have conceded v top 5 sides.
  • Porto have scored in all homes so expect a goal if this is 0-0 for a while
  • Estoril are in good form and might be stubborn, with their 4 clean sheets in 5 aways.
  • A hint they will falter away to the best. They have not played top 3 yet but conceded at least 2 v 5th and7th away. Lay estoril therefore if they score first.



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730pm - Genk V Waasland Beveren - 1.45 home
Standout stats

Profitable in play opportunities

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745pm - Lazio v Sassuolo - 1.44 home
Standout stats

  • A 2-2 when these 2 met earlier in the season
  • this is 10th v 20th ( bottom)
Lazio
  • only 2 defeats in their last 9 mathces
  • unbeaten in their last 4 home matches, drawing the last 2.
  • have failed to score in only 6
  • good against bottom teams with wins against 13th, 15th, 17th, 18th, 19th scoring 2 miniumum
  • 5 0-0's at halftime at home
  • have scored 11 in the first half and conceded only 2 at home 1st half
Sassuolo
  • 9 defeats and a 4-3 win v Milan in their last 10 matches
  • Failed to score in 7 of those 10 matches
  • only 4 wins all season
  • have lost 5 and drawn 2 away to top 10 
  • no draw in 10 overall
  • have conceded in the last 7 away and last 10 overall
  • only 1 0-0 this season
  • have conceded 14 1st half and 10 2nd half goals away


Profitable in play opportunities


  • Lazio seem to have a comfortable time of it against bottom teams at home. Expect them to score at least 2 goals. Best case for Sassuolo seems to be a score draw.
  • Halftime 0-0 is a bit hit and miss so I won't go with it. 


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8pm - Osasuna v Atlético Madrid - 1.44 away

Standout stats

  • buzzing from a 0-1 away win v Milan mid week, Atl Madrid will look to continue that good away form
  • this is 14th v 3rd, but 3rd only on goal difference
  • 6 Madrid wins and a 0-0 draw in last 7 head to heads.
Osasuna
  • only 2 defeats in 9 matches
  • no wins home or away v top 8, but interestingly have drawn 1st and 2nd at home this season.
  • ( but them got spanked 1-5 and 0-3 by 4th and 5th).
  • only 2 0-0's at halftime at home
  • have conceded all 8 2nd half goals at home in the last 1/4 hour
Atl Madrid
  • only 2 defeats all season, both away from home and the last one came in the last away match
  • have only failed to score in 3 all season, and one of those was that last away match
  • no draws home and away against 10th and below sees 13 wins and 1 loss. 12 of those wins saw 2+ goals scored.
  • no away 0-0 but 5 0-0's at halftime
  • have only conceded 2 first half goals away so the likeliest first goal scorers?


Profitable in play opportunities

  • history points to a Madrid win. Recent form could see Osasuna throw a spanner in the works. 2 home draws v top 2 sides is very interesting.
  • At their best, Atl Madrid score 2 goals at least. 
  • Osasuna are definitely vulnerable if they score first.
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8pm - Lille v Lyon - 2.15 home
Standout stats

Profitable in play opportunities

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