Monday, 24 February 2014

MONDAY

What an excellent weekend's live chat! That's more like it. More sub 1.10 lays than you can shake a stick at, and lots of favourites getting into a pickle and then extricating themselves from said pickle!

I must do a review this time. It is time consuming but this weekend epitomises all that is best about DRT.

I know there'll be some spelling mistakes, rather typing errors and as time is a factor , I will not always reverse and correct them , so apologies.

5pm - Sparta Prague v FC Brno - 1.21 home

530pm - Concordia Chiajna v Steaua Bucharest - 1.43 away

6pm - Elazigspor v Fenerbahce - 1.6 away
Standout stats 

  • this is 15th v 1st
  • very tight when Fenerbahce visit. 2 score draws and a 0-1 in the last 3 visits
Elazigspor ( Elaz for short)
  • only 1 draw all season
  • no 0-0 this season
  • 5 wins in 7 matches and this after a run of 10 consecutve defeats
  • 4 consecutive home wins
  • only 3 clean sheets all season
  • have conceded 2 goals in 2 defeats and a draw at home to 8th and above
  • no draw in 19 matches
Fenerbahce
  • only 4 defeats all season but worryingly, 3 of those came in the last 6 matches.
  • Only 2 draws all season
  • 3 consecutive away defeats. We saw with Newcastle ( failed to score in 4 home matches ) that strong unlikely sequences will end. At 1.6 away, the market expects today.
  • failed to score in only 2 matches
  • have scored and conceded in 11 of their last 14 matches
  • no away draws
  • have beaten 13th and lower away, but it's been tight 0-1 and 3 1-2 results
  • have conceded in their last 7 away matches
Profitable in play opportunities
  • strong stats match this. Avoid the draw
  • Fenerbahce are likely to score , in fact both teams could score. 
  • A 1-2 away win ( if Fenerbahce win) is the most obvious and recurring scoreline.
  • Fenerbahce have a strong sequence to end. 3 consecutive away defeats must end with Galatasary now given a hint of hope for the title.
  • Eski have conceded 2 at home to top sides so that again supports a 1-2 away win ( again IF Fenerbahce win)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------



6pm - Parma v Fiorentina - 1.56 home
Standout stats

  • 3 consecutive score draws when Fiorentina meet. Head to heads favour the home team not losing
  • this is 7th v 4th and rarely do you see a better positioned team as the outsider
parma
  • no defeat in 12 matches
  • 4 draws and 2 wins in 6 home matches.
  • 3 consecutive clean sheets include 2 at home
  • only failed to score in 2 of their last 12 matches
  • 4 clean sheets in 5 matches
  • only defeats at home v 1st and 2nd 
  • 5 0-0's at halftime at home
Fiorentina
  • only 2 defeats in 9 matches came in last 3 matches
  • failed to score in 4 matches all season
  • have only played 2 of the top 7 at home away, losing 2-1
  • 4 0-0's at halftime away from home
Profitable in play opportunities
  • not so sure why Parma are so short. Injuries for Fiorentina?
  • I would not lay the 0-0 halftime score here.
  • Clean sheets seem to be Parma's strong point and perhaps will suggest a 0-0 back to lay trade?
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


6pm - Samsunspor v 1461 Trabzon - 1.78 home

715pm - FC Koln v G Furth - 1.73 home

745pm - Hull v Brighton - 1.85 home

8pm - Napoli v Genoa - 1.31 home
Standout stats

  • 3 consecutive head to heads wins for Napoli and 3 consecutive home wins in H2H
  • this is 3rd v 11th
Napoli
  • only 4 defeats all season
  • only 1 defeat in 11 matches
  • unbeaten in 5 home matches
  • have failed to score in only 4 matches
  • only 3 clean sheets in 15 matches
  • only 1 home defeat
  • tend to score 2/3 goals against teams near genoa in the league positions
  • have scored 15 home goals first half and 12 2nd half
genoa
  • 2 defeats in last 7 matches
  • only 1 win in 6 away matches was a 0-1 v Livorno
  • failed to score in only 3 of 15 matches
  • Loss, Loss. Draw, Loss away to top 5 away, conceding 2-4-3-2
  • 5 0-0's at halftime away
Profitable in play opportunities
  • Napoli are beating Genoa consistently in recent matches
  • Genoa likely to concede at least 2 goals as they have against other top 5 sides away from home
  • Napoli are consistent goal scorers each half so despite Genoa keeping 5 0-0's at halftime away, we could speculate on a 0-0 halftime score lay
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


815pm - Benfica v Guimaraes - 1.22 home
Standout stats

  • Porto lost yesterday, so this becomes a must win for Benfica
  • 3 wins to nil and a loss for Benfica in their last 4 head to heads
  • this is 1st v 6th. This is a pivotal match for Benfica. They are 2 points ahead of 2nd and have a game in hand. This is the match to assert!
Benfica
  • only 1 defeat was first match of the season
  • 5 wins in their lsat 6 matches
  • 5 clean sheets in 6 home matches 
  • 5 clean sheets in their last 6 matches overall
  • scored in all matches 
  • 5 2-0 wins in their last 6 matches
  • clean sheets in home wins against all top 8 
Guimaraes ( Guim for short)
  • only 2 draws this season
  • 3 defeats and 2 1-0 wins in their last 5 matches
  • failed to score in only 6 matches 
  • have conceded 3 goals in 2 of their last 3 away matches
  • 3 1-0 defeats home and away v top 3 this season
Profitable in play opportunities
  • 1-0 or 2-0 Benfica looks the obvious call today
  • No halftime stats for Portugal
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


9pm - Espanyol v Villarreal - 2.56 home
Standout stats

  • 4 0-0's historically, 2 in the last 3 meetings and a 2-1 home win Villareal last time out
  • this is 10th v 6th
Espanyol
  • only 1 defeat in their last 5 matches 
  • 3 home wins in 4, 2 were 1-0 and the loss, v Real Madrid, was a 0-1
  • 2 draws at home were 0-0 and v bottom 4.
  • 7 0-0's at halftime at home
Villareal
  • no draw in 9 matches
  • 3 defeats in 4
  • 3 defeats and a win in their last 4 aways
  • only 1 clean sheet in 9 matches
  • 4 wins and a 0-0 away to 9th-16th in the league. 
Profitable in play opportunities
  • no interest in this at all. As the odds suggest it could go either way. There are no solid sequences/stats. It's a good lesson for you too. We research matches to find good DRT opportunities but also to find matches to avoid

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

No comments:

Post a Comment