Monday, 3 February 2014

3rd february

Welcome to Monday. A pity I missed the live chats at the weekend as there were some great DRT trades .
Live chat will be returning at the next available opportunity.

On to today

5pm - Ankaraspor v Tavsanli Linyitspor - 1.25 home
Standout stats


  • I thought this might be a cup match but it is a Turkey "championshi-equaivalent" match. 
  • This is 1st v 18th of 19 in the Turkey 1 league
Ankaraspor
  • only 1 loss in 21
  • 4 clean sheets in their last 5 matches.
  • have only conceded more than 1 goal in only one of their last 21 matches.
  • 12 wins in 14 home matches
Tavsanli
  • only 2 wins in their last 18 matches
  • have lost 8 of their last 11 matches.
  • have failed to score in 3 of their last 4.
  • only 2 wins in 17 away matches
Profitable in play opportunities
  • looks as clear cut as you can assume with an unknown league. 
  • Possibility of a win to nil for Ankara who rarely will concede 2 goals . So if Tavsanli score first, lay them as they are unlikely statistically to score 2.

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745pm - Genoa v Sampdoria - 2.68 home
Standout stats

  • this is 11th v 15th
  • last 2 home head to heads saw both teams score ( one score draw and another 2-1 win).
  • In September, Genoa won away 0-3.
Genoa
  • 3 defeats in their last 7 matches , all away .
  • are unbeaten in 7 home matches.
  • won their last 2 ( v Sassuolo and Inter Milan) without conceding at home.
  • only 2 clean sheets in their last 9.
  • have only lost at home to 3rd and 4th,
  • have scored in their last 7 matches.
  • have had 4 0-0's at halftime at home and 9 overall.
Sampdoria
  • only 2 defeats in their last 9 away to Napoli and Juventus so no disgrace there.
  • have only won 2 away matches.
  • have only kept 4 clean sheets this season
  • have not beaten any of the top 11 home or away.
  • have conceded in all bar 1 away match
  • have not had a 0-0 this season.
Profitable in play opportunities
  • statistically, Genoa should not lose today. 2.68 quotes though suggest this match is wide open.
  • Sampdoria have not beaten any of the top 11 home or away - how strong and reliable will that stat be today? It does suggest laying Sampdoria, should Sampdoria take the lead.
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8pm - Man City v Chelsea - 1.9 home
Standout stats

  • I'm not sure how useful research will be here as this is one of those " one off matches" but on a quiet day ( I would not research this on a busier day), let's list the strong stats
  • both teams have scored and conceded in the last 4 matches, albeit 2 were pre season friendlies.
  • this is 2nd v 3rd. City go top with a win, and Chelsea will be 6 points behind 1st placed with a loss. A key game therefore ( again another reason why I would not ordinarily research as these matches rarely reflect the stats).
Man City
  • unbeaten in 12 , with 11 wins and 8 consecutive wins.
  • have won all 11 home matches.
  • have scored 2+ goals in 10 of their last 12 matches
  • only 1 0-0 at halftime in 12 matches
  • have failed to score in only 2 this season.
  • both teams have scored in Man City home wins v top 5 sides.
  • have scored 20 first half and 22 2nd half goals at home.
  • no opponent has led at halftime at Man City
Chelsea
  • have not lost in 8 matches, winning 6 of them. As part of that sequence, was a 0-0 v Arsenal and you get the feeling Mourinho will be targeting defense today
  • Indeed Chelsea have kept 5 clean sheets in their last 7 matches
  • Chelsea have failed to score in only 4, but notice all were away to top 8 sides.
  • Chelsea have had 5 0-0's at halftime away from home
Profitable in play opportunities
  • Chelsea are yet to win away v top 8 sides, and all 4 matches they failed to score in were away to top 8 sides.
  • Let's look statistically. Man City tend to score 2 minimum at home, Chelsea have failed to score in 4 of 5 away matches v top 8, as well as keeping 5 clean sheets in 7. I think Chelsea will look to keep Man City out. Will they succeed?  If you think so, back 0-0 pre -match.
  • Logically when a team scores 20 first half goals, they're bang in for a 0-0 halftime score lay. Can we risk this with a possible Chelsea defensive display?

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9pm - Villarreal v Osasuna - 1.4 home
Standout stats

  • this is 5th v 16th
  • 0-3 to Villareal in August's meeting . Osasuna would prefer this match at home, where they are unbeaten in their last 3 head to heads .
Villareal
  • lost their last match. Will they lose a 2nd consecutive match?
  • won their last 2 home matches.
  • failed to score in 5 this season.
  • have only had 2 0-0's at halftime all season.
  • against 14th and lower, have won the 3 matches played at home, scoring 2+.
  • no 0-0 at home this season or at halftime this season
Osasuna
  • only lost 1 of their last 6, a 1-5 loss to Bilbao in their last match.
  • unbeaten in 3 away matches
  • have lost all away matches played v top 8 away, conceding at least 2 on each occasion.
  • most vulnerable either side of halftime away. Have conceded 5 in the 1/4 hour before halftime and 6 in the 1/4 hour after halftime away.
Profitable in play opportunities
  • Villareal have yet to have a 0-0 halftime score away from home. Trust that stat today?
  • Osasuna lose away to top 8 opponents, and by 2 goals. This is similar to Villareal's performances against the 3 teams 14th and below at home. Expect Villareal to score at least 2 goals today?

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