I was happy to nail the West Ham match. Concerted 0-0, and the 2-0 has sprung up frequently for West Ham. I decided not to oppose West Ham in research, and that proved fruitful
Fiorentina did precisely what they needed to do to go through in the Italian cup. 2-0 after being 2-1 down from the first leg.
The reseaerch for the West Brom game was excellent. "1-1 an opening gambit" proved prophetic. Chelsea opened the scoring so there was no real DRT in this match, and given the lateness of the West Brom goal ( 87th minute) and my reasoning re 1-1, this was a match to just be content at good, accurate research.
All in all, I was very pleased to get a lot of the angles in. And happy to have swerved Cardiff and Aston Villa. Although a dabble in a late late 0-0 was too tempting for me ( 1.09 again as per usual - I was taken by the Cardiff forward line).
6pm - Atromitos v Olympiakos - 1.69 away
Standout stats
- this is the greek cup.
- these 2 sides are 0-0 from the first leg. Not a surprise really given Atromitos have now kept 5 consecutive clean sheets in the cup, to Olympiakos's 3.
- In April 2012 in the cup, Olympiakos visited Atromitos and won 1-2 after extra time.
Profitable in play opportunities
- given this was extra time last time these 2 met, perhaps that's the angle in today. Another 0-0 pre match back to lay. 1.69 is quite a high price for Olympiakos and recounts a possible tough match for them
- Olympiakos have been a good Drt side generally.
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6pm - Eskisehirspor v Sivasspor - 1.63home
Standout stats
- this is a turkish cup match between 2 super lig teams and should not be prioritised ( just note the home team are 1.63 if Sivasspor score first!)
- On the 18th January 2014, Eski won 0-2 in the cup. This must be the 2nd leg tonight.
- as one reader explained recently, the turkish cup is peculiar and I think a tabled format, hence there being cup games between this one and the earlier meeting between the 2.
Eskisehirspor ( Eski)
- have only won 3 of their last 9 matches in all competitions
- they are great at home, only 2 defeats in their last 16 may be the reason they are so strong in the betting market.
- have won 8 of their last 10 home matches in all competitions
- only 2 defeats in 90 minutes in their last 14 matches.
- 11 home wins in 13 matches in the cup.
- Eski have kept 4 clean sheets in their last 6 home matches in the cup
Sivasspor
- no draw in 10 ( 6 losses in those 10 matches)
- no win in their last 6 away matches, losing 5 of them
- have lost 4 of their last 5 in the cup.
- have only won 1 of their last 6 away cup matches.
Profitable in play opportunities
- please remember this is the turkish cup so don't get carried away! On the face of it, Eski are the form team and Sivasspor are on a poor run.
- Eski's home form in all competitions and in the cup is superb ( 11 wins in 13 home matches in the cup).
- We should therefore side with Eski today ( and for DRT purposes if Sivasspor score first, we can lay Sivasspor).
- this is not the 2nd leg of a 2 legged cup match. The turkish cup is a table format apparently.
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6pm - Galatasaray v Antalyaspor - 1.4 home
Standout stats
- this is a turkish cup match.
- a very tight earlier meeting between these 2 saw a Galatasary penalty then an 89th minute Antal equaliser.
Galatasary
- Galatasaary have scored 15 goals without conceding in their last 4 matches so could be solid today if that continues.
- 12 wins in their last 13 home matches.
- have kept 7 clean sheets in their last 9 home matches
- have only been beaten twice at home in the cup since 2004.
Antalyaspor
- have only lost 1 of their last 7 in all competitions
- no defeat in 9 cup matches, but some opponents lower league. 3 of those 9 matches went to extra time.
- unbeaten in 5 aways in the cup, 2 of the matches going to extra time.
Profitable in play opportunities
- clearly Galatasary at home are superb, and Galatasary in their last 4 matches are devastating 3-0, 6-0, 3-0, 3-0 is as solid as it gets. They are priced to continue that today.
- 12 wins at home in 13 sees Galatasary obvious solid favourites. The clean sheets will make it difficult for Antalyaspor .
- Antalyaspor a little tough to read. They have a good record in the cup but I am not sure who they have beaten in terms of quality and comparison with Galatasary
- Team news key if you can get it, particularly we want to see the big boys out for Galatasary
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Standout stats
- this is a german cup match
- the last head to head was a friendly, a 1-1 draw
leverkusen
- only 3 defeats in 11 matches, 2 of which were 1-0.
- Leverkusen have won their last 2 matches.
- only 3 defeats in 22 home matches. Leverkusen are more likely NOT to lose, than lose.
- have scored 2+ goals in 13 of their last 16 matches.
- only 1 defeat in their last 9 cup matches ( in 90 minutes)
- Leverkusen's last few cup matches at home came in 2009 so are not really of much use.
Kaiserslautern
- are a Bundesliga 2 side.
- have not had a draw in 10 matches.
- have only lost 1 of their last 7 away matches, but again I remind you they are a Bundesliga 2 side.
- 5 clean sheets in those 7 away matches though
- only 2 draws in 20 cup matches.
- have lost away to Hertha and Bayern Munich in the cup in recent years. Vulnerable to top flight opponents?
Profitable in play opportunities
- Top flight opponents must logically be sided with against lower league sides. Leverkusen are in good form with only 3 defeats in 22 home matches.
- Kaiserslautern tend to avoid draws of late. Can that be relied upon today.
- Acknowledgement that Kaiserslautern have kept 5 clean sheets in their last 7 away matches , but acknowledgement also that their opponents are a level or 2 below Leverkusen's.
- This could be a good DRT match in which to oppose Kaiserslautern of Kaiserslautern score first.
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645pm - Groningen v Twente - 1.76 away
Standout stats
- Twente dominate head to heads, winning easily in recent encounters
- this is 11th v 2nd. Twente must win really to close the gap to Ajax to 2 points. This becomes therefore a critical match. A 5 point difference or a 2 point difference ( and we are in February!)
Groningen
- 5 defeats in their last 7 matches.
- have scored and conceded in 6 of their last 8 matches
- have only kept 4 clean sheets all season.
- have failed to score in only 4 this season.
- have only played 2 of the top 5, at home a 1-1 draw to Ajax and a 1-3 loss to Heerenveen
- have already lost 5-0 to Twente this season.
- have conceded in their last 8 matches.
- have only had 1 0-0 this season.
Twente
- only 3 defeats for twente all season, one came in their last match, a 3-2 loss to PSV away
- have scored 2+ in 10 of their last 12 matches.
- have scored and conceded in 6 of their last 7 away matches.
- have failed to score in only 2 matches all season.
- have kept only 1 clean sheet in 13 matches.
- have scored in their last 18 matches.
- have only had 1 0-0 all season.
Profitable in play opportunities
- it looks advantage Twente on the face of it, but 1.76 is suspiciously big odds for a team so dominant in head to heads and with only 3 defeats all season. What gives?
- this should not end 0-0. Twente are likely to score, indeed both teams look statistically able to score today, our hope of course is that Groningen are the first goal scorers, as we can lay them/
- Will Twente score 2 as they have in recent matches?
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730pm - Hamburg v B Munich - 1.22 away
Standout stats
- this is a german cup match
- 4 consecutive wins for Bayern in head to heads and 2 wins to nil when last visiting Hamburg
Hamburg
- have only won 2 of their last 10 matches, and those were 2 friendlies in the winter break
- have failed to score in their last 3 matches, losing 3-0 in each match
- only 2 draws at home in their last 18 matches in all competitions.
- have conceded in their last 9 home matches.
- have lost 4 of their last 5 home matches.
- tough to decipher achievements in the German cup as they have played ( and beaten) lower league sides.
- are unbeaten at home in the cup in 8 matches, spread from 2005 to date.
Bayern
- Bayern's only 2 losses recently have come against Manchester City and in a winter break friendly against Red Bull Salzburg
- 20 wins and 2 defeats in their last 22 matches.
- 11 wins and 1 friendly loss in their last 12 away matches. 9 clean sheets within those 12 matches
- 9 consecutive cup wins for Bayern.
- only 1 defeat in 15 away cup matches, winning 13, drawing 2 , and keeping 12 clean sheets.
Profitable in play opportunities
- this is all about Bayern Munich as you'd expect. A side in excellent form and capable it seems of a clean sheets. Anything other than a Bayern lead/win in play, then you know what to do.
- Hamburg have a good home cup record, unbeaten in fact, but matches have been sporadic over the 9 years worth of records.
- Team news important for Bayern
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745pm - Arsenal v Man Utd - 2.32 home
Standout stats
- what the feck has he done to my club, old red nose is probably asking. An inability to beat a side as poor as Fulham should have sounded the death knell for D'oh - vid Moyes. The only title they'll be winning soon is the Championship.
- Arsenal are coming off a humiliating defeat.
- this is not a match which I want to personally trade, but what do the stats say?
- One of 3 scorelines when United visit - 1-0, 1-2, 1-1.
- this is 2nd v 7th. What an incentive for Arsenal. Chelsea did not capitalise on Arsenal dropping points at Liverpool, so an Arsenal win today will see them top.
Arsenal
- only 4 defeats this season, discount Villa ( an anomoly) and it's a select bunch of Manchester United, Manchester City and Liverpool. We see this season in and season out, an Arsenal inability to beat the big boys.
- 6 2-0 wins in their last 8 home matches.
- 7 clean sheets at home in their last 8 matches
- Arsenal have failed to score in only 2 matches, against Chelsea and Manchester United.
- 6 0-0's at halftime in their last 9 matches.
- under 2.5 goals matches in an unbeaten run v top 8 at home.
- Arsenal have had 5 0-0's at home at halftime
- have scored 22 and conceded only 6 goals at home this season.
Manchester United
- 3 defeats and a draw in their last 6 matches.
- United have lost their last 2 away matches v Chelsea and Stoke City.
- United have conceded 2 in 4 of their last 6 matches
- United have failed to score in only 4 matches this season.
- only 1 win home and away v top 9 was that 1-0 home win against Arsenal.
- all of United's wins, bar that one, came v 10th and lower. They have conceded 3-4-1-2 away to top 5 sides
- only 1 0-0 at halftime away from home
Profitable in play opportunities
- Arsenal have that monkey on their back ( no not Wayne Rooney), they simply seem to lose to the "top 4" season after season ( Chelsea, Man Utd, Man City , although they beat Liverpool at home 2-0). Heck, even Manchester United beat them 1-0
- That is United's only win above 11th position in the league and not representative of their abilities this season. United look vulnerable away to the top 5 sides, and conceded an average of 2.5 goals away .
- They sing " 2-0 to the Arsenal" at home these days, - they managed that against Liverpool. Arsenal don't seem to concede more than 1 goal so if United score first, it'll either be 0-1 or Arsenal will equalise. Will United really keep another 0-1 against Arsenal?
- For me this looks as if it could be another under 2.5 goals match , at least for a while. With United conceding 2.5 goals on average against top 5 away, and conceding 2 in 4 of their last 6 matches, 2-0, 2-1 looks reasonable to me as correct scores which might allow a trading angle. (0-1 United is possible, but how likely?)
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745pm - Everton v C Palace - 1.45 home
Standout stats
Standout stats
- no real point looking at head to heads given the 2 significant managerial changes
- this is 6th v 15th
Everton
- have lost only 4 all season, but did lose 2 of their last 3 ( albeit away)
- 5 home wins in 6 matches
- only 1 clean sheet in 11 matches
- there is an argument for vulnerability against the lower teams. 5 away draws against 15th and below, and at home, Everton have beaten 15th, drawn 0-0 with 16th, lost 0-1 v 17th and beat bottom Fulham
- only 2 0-0's at halftime at home as opposed to 9 away from home
- Everton are consistent goal scorers throughout 90minutes
Crystal Palace
- We need to look at Palace as Pulis's Palace.
- Perhaps markedly, 5 of 6 of Pulis's defeats as Palace manager came away. Contrast that with 5 home wins, 2 draws and a single defeat .
- Palace have failed to score in their last 3 away matches.
- only 2 draws in 15 Pulis matches and interestingly, they held Everton to a 0-0 in Pulis's first match
- only 3 over 2.5 goals matches for Pulis in 15 matches.
- 50% of Pulis matches have seen clean sheets
- against the top 8 away from home, though it is fairly conclusive. Palace have lost all 7 matches away to the top 8, conceding 2 at least in 6 of those matches and failing to score in 5 matches.
- palace are yet to draw away
- palace have had 6 0-0's at halftime away from home
- Palace have only scored 2 away goals in the first 75 minutes of away matches
Profitable in play opportunities
- Everton have strong stats on their side. Their opponents lose, typically conceding at least 2 goals, away to the top 8.
- If Palace were at home, I'd be a follower, but away they still have problems, even under Pulis.
- Base your decisions around an assumption that Everton are likeliest winners, could score 2 at best, and may keep a clean sheet.
- is only 1 clean sheet in 11 going to haunt Everton, what with Palace suddenly scoring 3 goals for the first time in yonks, in their last match?
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745pm - Man City v Sunderland - 1.2 home
Standout stats
- the last 3 matches have been 1-0 , twice to Sunderland ( who were at home).
- this is 3rd v 18th and points are precious. With Arsenal facing a tricky one against Manchester United, Manchester City will go top with a win ( if Arsenal lose). Sunderland will go as high as 14th ( pending other results).
Manchester City ( City)
- have failed to win,and indeed score, in their last 2 matches. Surely not a 3rd occasion? What are the chances of that?
- 11 wins prior to the Chelsea 0-1 hatchet job last home match.
- City had failed to score in only 2 all season, until the last 2 matches made it 4
- have kept only 3 clean sheets in 12 matches
- only 2 0-0's at halftime in 21 matches
- only twice have city failed to score at least 2 goals at home
- City have not had a home draw
- City have scored 44 home goals and conceded only 6.
Sunderland
- only 2 defeats in 10 matches sees Sunderland in reasonable form.
- Sunderland are actually unbeaten in their last 6 away matches.
- Sunderland have won 3 of their last 4 away matches
- have not had a 0-0 at halftime in their last 8 matches
- are yet to play the top 5 away from home which might put the apparent good away form into context.
Profitable in play opportunities
- an intriguing match in prospect and a number of arguments could be made. Sunderland have won 1-0 in the last 2 head to heads ( albeit at home - bogey team?)
- have City been "found out?" 2 consecutive matches without scoring. Well, one was against Chelsea at home and was typical Mourinho-esque 0-1 hit and run. Prior to that, City score for fun.
- Sunderland are unbeaten in 6 away matches, impressive at first sight, but no matches yet played away to top 5 sides ( at home, they have lost convincingly to 4 of those top 5).
- I expect City to score to end an unprecedented run of 2 without scoring.
- We can argue for a drawn out 0-0, but then would you risk it against a team with 22 home goals in the first half?
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