2 very difficult matches last night. Celta v Ath Bilbao I did lay 0-0 late on, and as live chatters know, I tend towards about 1.09 for my lays, laying low and laying late, so no great harm done.

Yesterday was a good example of making a decision to leave matches behind. Why do we need to trade every match, particularly if researched. The research there is to validate matches to trade as well as matches to leave alone.

On to today.

4pm - Angelholms v IS Halmia - 1.36 home

415pm - Shelbourne v Shamrock Rovers - 1.32 away

530pm - Cannes v Montpellier - 1.38 away

730pm - Toulouse v SC Bastia - 1.84 home

745pm - Cardiff v Aston Villa - 2.6 home
Standout stats

• part of a run of difficult-to-decipher Premiership matches with the Chelsea match seeming the most clear cut DRT potential match.
• there is only 1 head to head of relevance, a 2-0 Aston Villa home win in 2013. The goals were 76th and 84th minute goals.
• this is 19th v 12th and only 6 points separate these 2 sides, so points are oh so precious.

Cardiff

• 1 win, 1 draw, and 7 defeats in their last 9 matches. They did play 5 of the top 9 sides though.
• hints of progress at home? Draw-Loss-Win in the last 3 home matches. 
• Cardiff have conceded first in 8 of their last 9 matches.
• Cardiff have had 10 0-0's at halftime overall
• Cardiff have conceded 7 of their 8 2nd half home goals in the last 1/4 hour

Aston Villa

• only 2 wins in 11 
• have conceded at least 2 goals in their last 5 matches.
• only 1 clean sheet in 12 matches.
• in 7 away matches, Villa have conceded 2 goals, in 4 they have conceded none. What is it to be today?

Profitable in play opportunities

• these 2 teams are in dire form and you want me to trust them with my money? A match as appealing as being stuck in a lift with Noel Edmunds.
• What do the stats say though? Well, Cardiff have played 5 of the top 9 sides recently so a match v 12th represents a slight reprieve. They have conceded first in 8 of their last 9 matches and play a Villa side who have only kept a clean sheet in 12 matches. Both teams to score?
• I re-iterate that this is a match I will firmly leave behind.

745pm - Eintracht Frankfurt v Dortmund - 1.64 away

• thanks to Windows 8 shutting on me and losing my work ( I had to re-do all Premiership matches, a major pain, this match will take a lesser priority and I will not research it again. From memory, the conclusion I came to was that Dortmund have an outstanding record in the Cup ( this is a cup match) both overall and away from home, and as a consequence , any first goal scored by Frankfurt should yield us a DRT lay of Frankfurt.

745pm - Galway FC v Dundalk - 1.31 away

745pm - Hull v Southampton - 2.72 away
Standout stats

• Nikita Jelavic was good at Celtic  and Everton. Shane Long is an experienced campaigner also joining Hull's ranks.
• Saints players in are unknowns to me
• Southampton have won the last 4 meetings, but there's only one premiership meeting, a 4-1 Saints win
• this is 11th v 9th

Hull

• only 2 wins in 12 matches.
• Hull failed to score in 4 of their last 6 matches , but did score in their last 2.
• against top 10 sides, Hull have beaten Liverpool ( home) and Newcastle( away) but those were the only 2 in 13 matches.
• have had 5 0-0's at home at halftime
• no opponent has led at halftime at home 

Southampton ( Saints)

• are unbeaten in 5 matches. That is after a poor run ( played top 10 sides).
• Saints have certainly found their scoring boots of late, scoring 2-2-3-2 in their last 4 matches, BUT amazingly had 3 2-2 draws. Saints actually scored first in those 4 matches.
• Saints have only failed to score in 4 matches this season.

Profitable in play opportunities

• Hull win sporadically but when they win they impress ( 3-1 Liverpool and 6-0 Fulham).Their record against top 10 sides overall is poor, and with Southampton conceding in 3 recent 2-2 draws, we might have a chance to lay Hull should Hull score first.
• I thought the stat that Southampton had failed to score in only 4 matches this season very eye-catching and it should be exploited if this is 0-0 or 1-0 to Hull for a concerted period.

745pm - Lille v Caen - 1.6 home

745pm - West Ham v Norwich - 2.06 home
Standout stats

• it seems that home advantage is key in the 3 most recent 2013 meetings
• this is 15th v 16th and absolutely identical records bar goal differences

West Ham

• quite clear what Big Sam has been working on. Clean sheets in 4 of their last 5 matches sees 3 2-0 wins and a 0-0 draw with Chelsea.
• only the 3rd home win came last match. 
• have failed to score in only 1 of their last 9 matches.
• are unbeaten at home to teams below them, 2 draws and 2 wins v the bottom 2.
• 11 0-0's at halftime this season is a concern for us 0-0 halftime score layers

Norwich

• 3 clean sheets in the last 4, but tellingly only at home.
• only 1 win in their last 9 away matches.
• again 13th and below home and away, Norwich have only lost to the bottom 2 sides. Against 13th-18th inclusive, they conceded 0-1-0-0.
• have only had 1 0-0 at halftime away but 8 overalls.
• have conceded 28 away goals and scored only 8.

Profitable in play opportunities

• another match where points could mean survival come April. This looks like it could be a tight one. 0-0 pre-match back to lay perhaps a good starting point ( although I am put off by Norwich's single 0-0 at halftime away and conceding of 14 first half away goals.
• the head to heads favour the home team so that might be the angle in, should Norwich score. 
• West Ham's clean sheets must be accounted for, as must the 2-0 wins they are collecting. I would enter this match expecting West Ham not to lose, and therefore have that as my angle in.

8pm - Atl Madrid v Real Madrid - 2.26 away
Standout stats

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8pm - Fiorentina v Udinese - 1.63 home
Standout stats

• this is a Coppa Italia match and it is a match where we take our cues from the first leg, which was a 2-1 home win for Udinese. Udinese scored first, Fiorentina equalised, then Udinese won in the 82nd minute.
• Fiorentina are now odds on, and will need to score first to regain parity here.

8pm - West Brom v Chelsea - 1.53 away
Standout stats

• West Brom have won the last 2 meetings at West Brom. Chelsea are unbeaten in the last 2 head to head with  a win and a 2-2 draw.
• This is 18th v 1st

West Brom

• with only 4 wins all season, it's a wonder why chelsea are not shorter.
• only 3 defeats in 9 means 5 score draws.
• a tough nut to crack at home. 1-0 win v Newcastle, 1-1 draws with Everton and Liverpool in their last 3 home matches.
• have scored and conceded in 7 of their last 9 matches.
• only 1 clean sheet in 15.
• have scored and conceded against all of the top 5 they have played home and away.
• have only had 2 0-0's at halftime at home and no 0-0 fulltime at home.
• have scored 1/2 of their home goals in the last 1/4 hour

Chelsea

• only 3 defeats all season, all away.
• are unbeaten in 10 matches, winning 8 and drawing 2 0-0.
• this is built on the back of 7 clean sheets
• 4 consecutive away clean sheets sees Chelsea winning their last 3 aways.
• have only failed to score in 5 all season
• are clearly more vulnerable away from home, but solid wins against 15th, 16th and 17th might signal the power to cope with the lesser lights.
• have had 5 0-0's at halftime away from home.

Profitable in-play opportunities

•  West Brom have not lost at home recently. They tend to score and concede, so hope they score first so we can lay them. 
• but who will out? 4 consecutive clean sheets away for Chelsea now, against better teams than West brom could signal an away win to nil. It's tough when the stats aren't congruous.
• Advantage Chelsea. 1-1 might be a good opening gambit as it is still alive whoever scores first.
• This will be a good DRT match only if West Brom score first.

815pm - Benfica v Sp Lisbon - 1.79 home