Celtic's odds drifted to 1.76 at the off in a match which was marred by an early Celtic red card. Celtic lost 2-1 and it is so difficult to do a DRT on a team down to 10 men, priced higher than they usually are, against a team who, in my research, I noted were tough nuts to crack.
Moyes - how to ruin a team in 5 months!I did mention that Olympiakos could shock given their results against Arsenal and Dortmund at home. Again Moyes focussed on clean sheets and the first goal came in the 38th minute.
I left the Ross County match alone. In fact last night was a toughie for DRT trading given the unique circumstances of the Champions League, and the fact my hot pick Dortmund scored first.
On to today.
12pm - Guangzhou FC v Melbourne - 1.23 home
Standout stats
This is the AFC Champions League, the Asian Champions League and it can turn out some mismatches.
Guangzhou
- only 1 win in their last 7, but these include FIFA club world cup matches against the likes of Bayern Munich and Miniero.
- 3 defeats in 4 at home BUT 2 of those matches were in the FIFA club world cup and not at home ( they are in the home section at soccerway )
- only 1 home defeat therefore since March 2013 was against Videoton in a friendly last match.
- Unbeaten in 9 AFC Champions League matches
- 7 wins and 2 draws in their last 9 AFC Champions League home matches.
- Note 7 clean sheets.
Melbourne Victory
- an Australian league where has-beens shine through! It's a league where Emile Heskie can still score goals and Del Piero is a class above.
- unbeaten in 4 matches includes 3 consecutive wins. They beat Mang Thong Thani 2-1 in the AFC as well as a home and away win.
- only 3 away wins in 15 matches overall so Melbourne are poor travellers even domestically.
- only 5 wins in 19 AFC matches historically,
- have scored and conceded in their last 8 AFC matches
- 3 1-1's and 2 2-1 wins in their last 5 AFC matches
- no win away in the AFC
- 2 consecutive 1-1 draws albeit from 2011
Profitable in play opportunities
- like the Europa League, 2 teams who are likely to never meet regularly come face to face and we have to determine the relative merits of their form.
- What stands out I suppose is Melbourne's inability to have never won away from home in the AFC
- Guanghzou are strong at home and that suggests I will side with them should Melbourne score first ( and Melbourne have scored and conceded in their last 8 AFC matches.
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1pm - Dinamo Tbilisi v FC Sioni Bolnisi - 1.19 home
Standout stats
- this is a Georgian League match
- 7-5-4 goals scored by Dinamo in the last 3 head to heads
- this is 2nd v 5th in the league
Dinamo Tbilisi
- only 2 defeats in 28 league matches
- 23 wins at home, 2 draws and a defeat last time out ( pre winter break)
- Will Dinamo really lose 2 consecutive home matches?
- in all of those mentioned wins, they scored at least 2 goals
FC Sioni
- a run of 8 without defeat ended with the winter break
- 3 clean sheets in their 4 pre winter break head to heads.
- 4 draws and 2 wins in their 6 away matches pre winter break
Profitable in play opportunities
- Not a big follower of Georgian so note that! What strikes me is Dinamo lost their last home match pre winter break and looking at their form historically, they are highly unlikely to tolerate 2 consecutive home defeats in the league. Therein lies my angle.
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745pm - Schalke v Real Madrid - 1.52 away
Standout stats
- usual terms apply. The home team must go for a win to nil, and the away side can tolerate a score draw as long as they get a goal.
- no head to heads
- Here are some interesting stats from opta
- This will be the first competitive meeting between these two sides.
- No Spanish team has ever scored more than one goal against Schalke in the Champions League (8 games).
- Schalke have lost three of their four home Champions League games against Spanish opposition, all by a 0-1 scoreline.
- Real Madrid have been knocked out in each of their last three Champions League knockout ties with German clubs.
- Real Madrid have lost their last six away games in the Champions League against German clubs.
Schalke
- interesting that there are 3 German sides in this part of the Champions League (CL) and this side is the least likely.
- 4 wins and a draw in 5 competitive matches since the start of the year.
- 5 wins and a 0-0 in their last 6 home matches so in decent form
- only 2 defeats in 8 CL matches were against Chelsea and both 3-0 defeats. Is this the template for us to work from? An inability to really compete with the cream?
- Defeats since 2012 at home have come against Chelsea and galatasary
- Wins at home to Steaua, Olympiakos and basel - not quite your Real Madrids are they?
Real Madrid
- Ronaldo is back from a 3 match domestic ban for being a massive winker.
- 16 wins in their last 17 matches included 14 clean sheets
- 7 wins in their last 8 away matches included 7 clean sheets
- 6 wins and a 2-2 draw away to Juventus in their last 7 Champions League matches.
- 3 of Real's last 4 away defeats in the CL came via Dortmund ( twice ) and Bayern - German sides as Opta pointed out.
- have scored and conceded in 9 of their last 10 away matches in the CL
Profitable in play opportunities
- that poor record against German opponents is interesting for Real Madrid but you get the distinct impression Schalke are not Bayern/Dortmund quality wise.
- Will Real continue to score and concede away? As I said they'd love a score draw.
- Ronaldo is back and that is a massive plus for a Real side who have been scoring shed loads domestically without him.
- Schalke's CL group form is distinctly underwhelming and I'd hope Schalke score first as I could see a Real Madrid fight back.
745pm - Galatasaray v Chelsea - 2.08 away
Standout stats
- an intriguing match with Mancini's new side playing Mourinho's new side.
- even before I do any research it must be advantage Chelsea for me. Mourinho is a great CL manager.
Galatasary
- only 1 defeat in 20 matches as in the Turkish cup
- unbeaten in 17 at home and note the recent run of 9 clean sheets in 11 home matches.
- Losses in the CL to Real madrid ( thrice),and Copenhagen.
- Have beaten Man Utd ( 1-0) and Juventus ( 1-0 ) , along with a 3-2 win v Real madrid at home since 2012 and you'd think a 1-0 would be the ideal scoreline tonight for Gala.
- 3 wins and a loss in last 4 home CL matches.
Chelsea
- only 1 defeat in 17 was agianst manchester city in the FA Cup
- 10 clean sheets in 14 matches
- 5 consecutive away clean sheets ended with a 1-1draw v West Brom and a 2-0 loss to Manchester City
- 4 clean sheets and a 1-0 away loss to Basel in Chelsea's last 5 matches in the CL
- Chelsea are a mixed bag away in the CL. losing to the likes of Shaktar and Basel, but in 2012 drawing with Barcelona, and Bayern.
Profitable in play opportunities
- both sides have recent runs of clean sheets and it's a case of old friends too, with Drogba, Sjneider , and of course Mancini known to the Chelsea ranks
- It's really tough to call in this first leg
- 1-0, 0-1 sounds interesting today although the odds are likely to be poor. Not a match though I can really put up any strong betting angles.
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