Friday 29th August 2014
6pm - Orebro v Brommapojkarna - 1.43 home
Standout stats
- only 1 recent head to head of relevance is a 2-2 which saw Bromma equalise with a late penalty.
- this is 9th v 16th ( of 16) in the Swedish top league.
Orebro
- an 11 match run without a win has ended now with 3 wins and a 3-2 loss in their last 4 matches.
- have scored and conceded in 8 of their last 9 matches
- have scored in their last 4 matches and conceded in their last 6 matches
- have only kept 3 clean sheets this season, pretty rubbish for a 1.43 shot.
- have scored and conceded in 5 of their last 6 home matches
- unbeaten against 11th and below at home, albeit draws with 12th, 13th and 14th and 1-0 v 15th.
Bromma
- only 1 win all season is the reason why a team with not much solid form is 1.43 favourite!
- no win in 14 matches
- have conceded in their last 10 away matches and last 14 matches overall.
- concede generally between 2 and 4 goals in away matches
- only 1 clean sheet all season
- failed to score in only 2 of their last 10 matches, those were the last 2 matches
- have conceded 16 away goals in the first half.
Profitable in-play opportunities
- both teams could score today
- there should be a goal before halftime so lay the 0-0 halftime score as late as possible in the first half.
- 1/2 of Bromma's away matches are over 3.5 goals. If the match is 0-0 for a while consider over 3.5 goals at better odds than would appear pre-match.
5pm - Go Ahead Eagles v Willem II - 2.3 home
Standout stats
- these 2 last met in 2012 in the Eerste Division
- 2 3-2 losses for Go ahead eagles this season ended with a 0-0 v Dordrecht last match.
- Go ahead were 2-0 up in their first match - carelessly losing 2-3.
- Willem II have had a tough few matches, losing to PSV and Utrecht before a win against AZ Alkmaar.
- 5-5-0-4-3-3 - that's the total goals in the 6 matches these 2 have played between them this season.
Profitable in-play opportunities
- both teams to score perhaps? And over 2.5 goals at least today for this match? That's what the small sample of matches suggest. Lay any side 2-0 up. Go ahead particularly have a history of fluffing their lines 2-0 up!
Standout stats
- 3 consecutive wins in head to heads for Dortmund , scoring 3-4-4 ended with a 2-2 home draw against Augsburg last head to head.
- 2-0 losses for both sides in their opening matches this season . Dortmund were playing Leverkusen and the stats from last year pointed to struggles for them at home to top 4 from last year, so I expect a stronger performance from Dortmund today.
Profitable in-play opportunities
- Dortmund have a history of scoring at least 2 goals against Augsburg so that could continue today.
- Augsburg scored in 3 of the last 4 head to heads and that might continue.
- I would have to favour Dortmund here as they need that first win, and sharpish!
730pm -Marseille v Nice - 1.51 home
- do remember this is a local derby.
- The last 3 head to heads were 1-0, 1-0, 1-0 , a Nice and 2 Marseille wins
- Win, Draw, Loss for both of these sides this season
- Marseille drew 3-3 away to Bastia, lost 0-2 at home to Montpellier, and beat Guingcamp 0-1 away.
- Nice beat Toulouse 3-2, drew 0-0 away to Lorient, and lost 1-3 at home to Bordeaux.
Profitable in-play opportunities
- the odds seem far too short for Marseille here, although there must be a story behind such positive odds. There are no massive signings so that doesn't explain it. The 3 matches this season are rather non-descript. So it suggests a lay of 1.51 shots here in what is a local derby. That seems the value play, although please remember we have little to work with this season so far.
9pm - Valencia v Malaga - 1.53 home
- This is a match which favours the home side. Valencia tend to win at home and Malaga tend to win at Malaga, when these 2 meet.
- 1-0 and 0-0 the last 2 head to heads - a sign of defences on top?
- An opening 1-1 with Sevilla saw Valencia equalise in the 88th minute.
- Malaga win 1-0 at home to Ath Bilbao ( who may have been distracted by the Champions League match they were due to play v napoli).
- This is 8th v 11th from last season and Valencia have been superceded as the perennial " 4th best team in Spain". Only 4 points separated these 2 last season.
- Valencia scored in all bar 1 home match last season and were reasonable against teams below them at home, winning 8, drawing 2 and losing 2.
- Only 1 away win last season for malaga against 15th and above might account for Valencia's short price now.
Profitable in-play opportunities
- head to heads favour the home team, Malaga's dire away form favours the home team,
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