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FRIDAY

Summary of yesterday's matches




330pm - lokomotiv v Rostov - 1.56 home

A routine 2-1 win for Lokomotiv who were never in any trouble despite a red card each.There were 2 goals before halftime.




5pm - BRaerun v Tromso - 1.59 away

I should have stayed with the lay the draw stat yesterday. it was by far the strongest. There was an upset here and we'll get these in lower league matches like this one. It was 1-0 to braerum at halftime so any lay of 0-0 halftime score was successful

Braerum scored a 2nd after 60 minutes and Tromso got their goal to make it 2-1.




6pm - Kalmar v Falkenbergs - 1.74 home -




A Falkenbergs opening goal was very welcome indeed as it provided an excellent DRT, such was the confidence in the home side from a research perspective. kalmar went on to win 3-1.




6pm - Mjallby v Norrkoping - 2.56 home




Messy stats led to a less than enthusiastic approach here. 3-1 to the home side. Norrkoping were THE team from head to heads, but not scoring against teams below them away from home made them less than trustworthy

Remember, we don't have to trade every match that has been researched. If there is no congruency in the stats ( see Kalmar and how congruent the stats were there) then we don't have to play. We have the choice - to choose our battles.




605pm - Helsingborgs v Elfsborg - 2.34 away




A 4-1 win for Helsingborgs in another match with less that strong stats, as mentioned. And no coincidence here that Mjallby were 3.56 and Elfsborg 2.34. These odds are not the odds of rock solid favourites are they? This is why we get better results from odds on favourites.




7pm - FC Basel v St Gallen - 1.4 home




This was a 0-2 at halftime which did not work out; Too few matches to make strong conclusions as I said, but to be honest I was tempted by FC Basel at halftime 0-2 down.




7pm - Odd v Brann - 1.59 home




Nice research here. Brann scored first and therein was a DRT as we expected both teams to score. I did specifically mention laying Brann if Brann scored first."Odd will not lose this match", and they won 3-1.




Not too bad yesterday. We cannot win them all. Lessons from yesterday? It's far too early to be making strong conclusions in some leagues ( see Basel v St Gallen) and researching matches with favourites priced at 2.35 and 2.56 is tough. These odds do not suggest a strong favourite, so do be careful with these matches, and ideally look for a neutral bet if one presents itself.

Also, remember that if there is a match researched, it does not mean that match needs to be traded.










3pm - Olimpik Donetsk v Shakhtar - 1.13 away

Standout stats

Olimpik are newcomers to the Ukrainian Premier League and performed superbly against Dinamo Kiev, who, you'll remember, were the same odds as Shakhtar Donetsk are today.
4-0 loss, 1-0 win and 0-0 so far for Olimpik and although the sample is less than adequate, there is a suggestion they are focussing on not conceding in their last 2 matches. But they are obviously vulnerable.
Shakhtar are doing what Shakhtar do in this league, win, 3 wins at 2-0, 1-0 and 1-2 so far


Profitable in-play opportunities

1-13 as you know suggests 3/4 goals minimum and a possible win to nil. The value is in the 0-0 pre match back to lay, but that really must be written off as I cannot see Olimpik inflicting another 0-0 on a top 2 side from last year.
In an ideal world, we will see a goal or 2 before halftime so layers of the 0-0 halftime score can lay low and late.


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5pm - Levadia Tallinn v Tammeka Tartu - 1.06 home

I'm getting closer with these correct scores in Estonia. I went for 12-0 last time, and it finished 18-0!.
this is an Estonian League match
4 consecutive Levadia wins in head to heads, varying from 2-0 3 times to 7-0 last time out. The latter scoreline is more in keeping with a 1.06 quote.
this is 2nd v 7th in the league and Levadia go top with a win today


Levadia Tallin

only 2 defeats all season
have scored in their last 11 matches at home and last 10 overall
have scored 5+ goals in a single game on 6 occasions this season
have failed to score in only 4 matches all season
no win in 2 at home but were playing the top 3 sides
no 0-0 at home


Tammeka Tartu

only 4 wins all season
have conceded in their last 6 away matches
have lost away to 1st, 3rd and 5th without scoring. Note 2 of those defeats were only 1-0,and one was against Sillamae kalev when Sillamae were about 1.09 odds.


Profitable in-play opportunities




I expect a spanking. The value, though, is in laying under 2.5 goals and hoping that Tammeka Tartu perform as they did against Sillamae Kalev when that was 1-0 and Sillame were 1.09 shots.
It's a bet to nothing. I think Sillamae have been struggling as they had only a 2-1 recently at odds of 1.1
Expect a 6+ goal haul from Tammeka today if they are on song. Normally with 1.06 shots, we'd expect goals before halftime so lay the 0-0 halftime score low and late.


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5pm - Mouscron v Standard - 2.14 away
Standout stats

• this is a Belgian Pro League match and something must have happened to Standard as the market this season is treating them with disdain
• There are no league head to heads

Mouscron

• Mouscron are newcomers to the league and newcomers are usually worth tracking through a season because logic dictates that they will struggle in more rarified air.
• A 3-1 loss to Anderlecht opened their season, , they won their next match at home 1-0 and latterly drew 2-2 away to Lierse  -Mouscron were 1-2 up in that match

Standard

• Standard won the league last season but are not really priced like league winners so far this season.
• They have sold 3 players totalling £20 million which may be the reason?
• Win Win Loss so far for Standard and a lay of Gent 0-1 up last time out was unsuccessful
• Standard have a Champions League match on the 20th August which must be a distraction and is another reason why they are over evens against a newly promoted side

profitable in-play opportunities

• Only a 1-0 win this season for Mouscorn and logic suggests more struggles against league leaders last season.
• However, last season, Chelsea and Dortmund were a prime example of what I called " the curse of the Champions League" - teams underperforming in the league before a Champions League match.
• This makes it tough to trust Standard today.

530pm - Cadiz v Atl Madrid - illiquid market













530pm - FC Liefering v KSV Superfund - 1.38 home

Standout stats

• please, please please note this is the Austrian 1 Liga. These 2 may be as reliable as Derek Trotter.
• 4/5 matches played this season  and this is currently 2nd v 8th in a league of 10 teams
• Liefering have won the last 3 meetings 0-1, 1-3 and 1-0. Those 1-0's hardly inspire confidence in a 1.38 shot!

FC Liefering

• it seems this season that they are working on clean sheets. 3 clean sheets = 3 wins and a 1-1 draw 
• have scored in all 4 matches this season

KSV

• have a touch of drawitis in their 5 games played this season.A loss began the season and then we have 4 consecutive draws, 2-2, 0-0, 2-2, 0-0.
• Interesting collateral form. Liefering beat innsbruck 0-1 and KSV drew 0-0 with same.
• Liefering drew 1-1 with FAC Wien, and KSV drew 2-2 with them

Profitable in-play opportunities

• FC Liefering look very tenuous favourites here. THey are reliant on clean sheets this season and , well, KSV have kept 2 0-0's in their last 4 matches.
• 2 1-0 wins in 3 head to heads is also less than impressive.
• KSV though are on a 4 match winning streak. this is already a long streak considering that we are only 5 matches into the season. I would take a chance on laying any late draw in the hope this sequence ends.

530pm - Hartberg v FC Wacker Innsbruck - 1.54 away













530pm - Slovan Bratislava v FK Senica - 1.47 away













6pm - Litex Lovech v Cherno More - 1.33 home













630pm - FC Copenhagen v FC Midtjylland - 2.14 home













7pm - Feyenoord v Heerenveen - 1.52 home
Standout stats

• this is the dutch Eredivisie which is only 1 match old so little current to work with
• In 5 league head to heads, Heerenveen have won only 1. Feyenoord have won the 2 most recent head to heads 1-2 and 2-0

Feyenoord

• this is 2nd v 5th from last season and Feyenoord only lost the title by 3 points 
• Feyenoord's first match against ADO Den Haag was a thoroughly unconvincing 0-1 away win thanks largely to playing against 10 men for 50 minutes
• Last year Feyenoord only lost 3 home matches v 1st, 3rd and 14th 

Heerenveen

• Heerenveen lost 1-2 at home to Dordrecht in their first match this season, and that was after leading 1-0
• lsat season they failed to beat any of the top 6 away from home

Profitable in-play opportunities

• with only 3 points separating them from ajax last season, Feyenoord must win their home matches you'd think. At 1.52 they are not rock solid favourites.
• 2-0, 2-1 looks reasonable against tonight. Opening night scoring problems must be nipped in the bud at home.
• Heerenveen look vulnerable if they score first, so lay them, as they threw away the lead at Dordrecht. They lost away to 1st and 2nd last season but did score draw 3rd, 4th and 6th

7pm - Metalurg Z v Dnipro - 1.42 away













7pm - Porto v Maritimo - 1.23 home

Standout stats

this is the first match in the new Portugeuse season.
Porto have won 5-0, 3-0 and 3-2 when Maritimo have visited.The 3-2 was in the cup.
this is 3rd v 6th from last year. Sporting Lisbon were resurrected last year in what is normally a title tussle between Benfica and Porto. I guess when Porto are a selling club, there is not much consistency is there?


Porto

Porto won all bar 2 home matches last year, 1 was a loss , the other a draw.
Porto averaged 2.33 goals last season at home


Maritimo

maritimo lost to all of the top 5 sides away from home last season. Is there anything to argue against another defeat? Usually they conceded 2 or 3 goals




Profitable in-play opportunities

the opening match of the season so only head to heads and last season to go on. It all points to a Porto side reliant on winning at home if they are to split Sporting Lisbon and Benfica.
3-0 starters for me. It seems Maritimo concede 2/3 against top teams away and Porto have 2 league clean sheets at home.


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7pm - Steaua Bucharest v Pandurii - 1.49 home













7pm - Telstar v Roda JC - 1.71 away













7pm - Waalwijk v FC Oss - 1.52 home













715pm - Dinamo Zagreb v RNK Split - 1.4 home

I will not do any research here, suffice to say this. Dinamo Zagreb last lost at home in July 2011 ( from memory). They have served us well as a DRT team in the past when falling behind at home.
If they can continue this unbeaten run at home, then if RNK Split are leading at any stage, back Dinamo Zagreb.


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720pm - Sparta Prague v Banik Ostrava - 1.35 home










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730pm - Club Brugge v Cercle Brugge - 1.33 home

Standout stats

the Belgian pro League is some 3 matches in..
This is a local derby and head to head wins run as follows: Club, Cercle, Club, Cercle ,Club.
In the last 5 head to heads, all wins have been to nil. Is this derby the sure thing the bookies expect?
Club Brugge have won 2-0, 1-0 and drew 1-1 with Zulte-Waregem this season.
Cercle brugge had a 0-0 draw v Gent, 1-1 draw with Racing genk and 0-1 home defeat to Oostende.
I cannot access last year's tables to ascertain where these 2 ranked over a season




Profitable in-play opportunities

the head to heads point to either team being able to win this match, which rather makes that 1.33 quote for the home team far too short.
All of the last 5 meetings have seen a win to nil. This is a stat that will end at some point.But today? Club Brugge have 2 clean sheets and only kept strong Zulte to a single goal.
A shaky DRT match for me, given the head to heads and the derby status.
If we assume another win to nil, then obviously the first goalscorer wins!Club Brugge have scored in all 3 this season, Cercle Brugge have failed to score in 2 matches.


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745pm - Bray v Sligo Rovers - 1.42 away













745pm - Dundalk v Limerick - 1.35 home










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745pm - Falkirk v Rangers - 1.76 away

Standout stats

the bookmakers continue to price up Rangers very tentatively. Last year in league one, you rarely saw Rangers over 1.2 odds. This is the 2nd match they have appeared at over 1.7 odds.
This is a step up now for Rangers, who have a weaker side than they would in the SPL of course.
Rangers were a good DRT team in the opening match against Hearts. In the live chat, we saw Hearts take the lead, and delaying entry , we were able to lay Hearts at quite low odds. Rangers equalised and Hearts snatched a most unexpected win at the death.
Falkirk drew 2-2 away to Cowdenbeath in their 1st match of the Scottish Championship.
There is little to go on as you can imagine. A hint perhaps that both teams could score , and Rangers not lose. I see that Hearts late goal as rather against the run of play last weekend.
Lay Falkirk if Falkirk take the lead.

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745pm - St Patricks v UCD - 1.15 home

Standout stats

this is an Irish Premier League match and as you well know, 1.15 shots equal goals, usually 3/4 minimum.
his is 3rd v 10th in Ireland
Both teams have scored in the last 3 head to heads, a 1-3 St Pats win, a 3-2 St Pats home win and a 1-1 draw. Not quite the form in those last matches of a 1.15 shot.
In all 3 of those matches St Pats had to come from behind


St Pats

4 losses all season ,3 came away from home.
have won their last 8 home matches
have scored in their last 11 home matches
73% over 3.5 goals at home
have failed to score in only 4 matches this season


UCD

only 2 wins in their last 19 matches.
have kept only 4 clean sheets.
have lost 5-2 and 2-1 away to top 2 sides, playing 3rd tonight.
5 match losing streak away
No win in 9 matches
concede an average of 2.64 goals away from home


profitable in-play opportunities

this could be another over 3.5 goals match today which could see both teams scoring as you've seen in the last 3 head to heads, and UCD's performance away to top 2 .
UCD should not win this match so back St Pats if UCD lead at any stage.
there are no halftime stats in Ireland but I would be a layer of the 0-0 halftime score as late as possible if we are expecting near to an over 3.5 goals match.



SATURDAY







Saturday 16 August 2014

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1245pm - Man Utd v Swansea City  - 1.33 Man United

Standout stats

• New manager syndrome ( Louis Van Gaal for manchester United ) precludes me from any meaningful statistical research on Manchester United. He will have his own impact on the team, and from friendlies it looks positive. We will see distinctive patterns emerge as the season unfolds.
• Swansea last season failed to win a single game against top 9 teams, losing 14 and score drawing 4 of those matches.. Man Utd did the double over them last season 

Profitable in-play opportunities

• All Premiership matches will be watching briefs really. It is compelling though to note Swansea's short comings home and away against the top 9 sides.  Is this enough to side with Manchester United if Swansea score the first goal?

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5 2.90 Leicester 3.30 Everton 2.38 15:00
Standout stats

• I cannot fathom the odds for Leicester here, 2.9 ( I am using bookmaker odds as I am researching on a Thursday night!). Their one signing is £10 million man Ulloa from Brighton, not quite Alexis Sanchez I would argue!
• Everton lost 0-1 to leicester in a friendly. Is this fresh in the bookies' minds?It comes on the back of a pre-season in which Everton failed to win. Lukaku and McGeady come in for an Everton side quietish in the transfer market.Gareth Barry is here on a free and Traore comes on loan from Monaco.
• Everton were 5th last season let's not forget.
• Everton did not draw in their last 16 matches last season. Is that because they were aiming for 4th spot and going gung ho?
• Everton's only defeats away were via top 8 sides

Profitable in-play opportunities

• I'll keep repeating - it's all conjecture at the moment. Instinct suggests Everton will not lose this match. I cannot understand why leicester are 2.90 odds.
• Were the pre season results  just that? Pre-season and meaningless? Or symptomatic of something amiss with Everton? Their form last season against bottom 1/2 sides was excellent. They only lost 1.

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6 2.50 Qpr 3.20 Hull 2.88 15:00

7 2.00 Stoke 3.30 Aston Villa 3.80 15:00

8 2.20 West Brom 3.30 Sunderland 3.30 15:00

9 3.40 West Ham 3.40 Tottenham 2.10 15:00

10 1.25 Arsenal 6.00 Crystal Palace 10.00 17:30
Standout stats

• that ole Pulis magic! Palace were superb last season and a master class in how to defend.
• Arsenal have splashed the cash this season on the likes of Chambers from Southampton, Debuchy from Newcastle and Sanchez from Barcelona.
• Crystal Palace have got, erm, Campbell from Cardiff City for £1.1 million. What a contrast.
• Arsenal were only beaten at home by Aston Villa last season in their opening match. Surely not another opening match howler?
• 6 2-0 scorelines at home last season is nearly a 1/3rd of all home matches.
• Palace won only 3 matches against the top 10 home and away last season. Away from home they lost 9 of 10 matches, and conceded exactly 2 goals in 7 of those matches.
• 9 0-0's at halftime away from home last season suggested a Palace side who were very hard to break down, BUT who eventually capitulated.

Profitable in-play opportunities

• it remains to be seen what an impact Sanchez has for Arsenal . 1.25 looks layable though incase that ultra defensive Palace continue to confound until well into the 2nd half. Maybe better to back 0-0 pre-match and hope it remains so until halftime. I cannot see Arsenal slipping up at home for a 2nd consecutive opening season match

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Sky Bet Championship

11 2.80 Leeds 3.30 Middlesboro 2.50 12:15

12 2.80 Birmingham 3.30 Brighton 2.50 15:00

13 4.00 Blackpool 3.40 Blackburn 1.91 15:00

14 2.63 Bolton 3.30 Nottm Forest 2.63 15:00

15 1.91 Bournemouth 3.40 Brentford 4.00 15:00

16 1.67 Cardiff 3.50 Huddersfield 5.50 15:00

17 2.80 Charlton 3.30 Wigan 2.50 15:00

18 1.73 Fulham 3.50 Millwall 5.00 15:00

19 2.10 Norwich 3.30 Watford 3.50 15:00

20 2.10 Reading 3.30 Ipswich 3.50 15:00

21 2.80 Rotherham 3.30 Wolves 2.50 15:00

22 3.00 Sheff Wed 3.40 Derby 2.30 15:00

Sky Bet League One

23 1.62 Bristol City 3.80 Colchester 5.50 15:00

24 2.10 Chesterfield 3.30 Rochdale 3.50 15:00

25 2.88 Coventry 3.30 Sheff United 2.40 15:00

26 2.38 Crawley 3.40 Swindon 2.88 15:00

27 2.88 Crewe 3.50 Barnsley 2.30 15:00

28 1.83 Doncaster 3.50 Port Vale 4.33 15:00

29 2.50 Gillingham 3.30 Yeovil 2.80 15:00

30 2.50 Notts County 3.30 Fleetwood 2.80 15:00

31 2.88 Oldham 3.40 Leyton Orient 2.38 15:00

32 2.20 Peterboro 3.30 Mk Dons 3.25 15:00

33 2.80 Scunthorpe 3.30 Preston 2.50 15:00

34 2.30 Walsall 3.30 Bradford 3.10 15:00

Sky Bet League Two

35 1.73 Burton 3.75 Dag & Red 4.50 15:00

36 1.91 Cheltenham 3.40 Accrington 4.00 15:00

37 2.80 Hartlepool 3.30 Bury 2.50 15:00

38 1.91 Luton 3.40 Afc Wimbledon 4.00 15:00

39 2.30 Mansfield 3.30 Oxford United 3.10 15:00

40 2.25 Morecambe 3.25 Newport 3.20 15:00

41 1.91 Plymouth 3.40 Exeter 4.00 15:00

42 1.80 Portsmouth 3.60 Cambridge 4.33 15:00

43 1.83 Shrewsbury 3.50 Tranmere 4.33 15:00

44 2.30 Wycombe 3.30 Carlisle 3.10 15:00

45 2.20 York 3.30 Northampton 3.25 15:00

Scottish Championship

46 3.20 Alloa 3.40 Raith 2.20 15:00

47 3.40 Dumbarton 3.40 Qos 2.10 15:00

48 1.83 Livingston 3.60 Cowdenbeath 4.20 15:00

Scottish League One

49 2.50 Airdrie 3.60 Peterhead 2.40 15:00

50 2.10 Brechin 3.50 Stenhousemuir 3.00 15:00

51 3.25 Forfar 3.50 Dunfermline 2.00 15:00

52 1.91 Morton 3.40 Stranraer 3.60 15:00

53 2.60 Stirling 3.50 Ayr 2.38 15:00

Scottish League Two

54 1.00 Annan Athletic 1.00 Queen's Park 1.00 15:00

55 2.20 Arbroath 3.40 Albion 2.88 15:00

56 1.80 Clyde 3.60 Montrose 3.80 15:00

57 1.67 East Fife 3.80 Berwick 4.33 15:00

58 2.75 East Stirling 3.60 Elgin 2.20 15:00

France Le Championnat

59 1.14 Paris St Germain ( PSG) 7.50 Bastia 19.00 16:00
Standout stats

• we have seen extreme examples this week from Estonia about how short odds equal goals.
• The odds are spot on if based on head to heads which have seen PSG win 0-4, 3-1, 4-0, 0-3 
• A 2-2 draw for PSG and a 3-3 draw for Bastia on the opening matches of the season .
• PSG though will be wanting their first win, and must get their first win. There are already 7 teams on 3 points this season
• Bastia finished 10th last season. They failed to beat any top 6 side home or away last season. Away from home they conceded 4-3-2-2-4-3 against the top 6. As mentioned earlier, the numbers 3/4 fit in nicely with a quote of 1.14 about PSG

Profitable in-play opportunities

• a nice DRT from PSG on the opening day of the season in a match in which Ibrahimovic was dominant. This is a must win really for PSG. PSG won all home matches last season bar 3 draws and a loss to Rennes and scored in all home matches last season.
• Ibrahomovic and Cavani scored 30 home goals between them!

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60 2.50 Lens 3.10 Guingamp 2.90 19:00

61 1.95 Lorient 3.30 Nice 4.00 19:00

62 2.50 Metz 3.10 Nantes 2.90 19:00

63 1.83 Rennes 3.40 Evian Thonon 4.50 19:00

64 2.63 Toulouse 3.20 Lyon 2.70 19:00

Austria Bundesliga

65 1.83 Rapid Vienna 3.50 Scr Altach 4.33 15:30

66 1.62 Scholz Gr�dig 3.75 W.Neustadt 5.50 18:00

67 1.73 Wolfsberger 3.60 Sv Ried 4.75 18:00

Sunday 17 August 2014

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68 1.36 Liverpool 5.00 Southampton 7.50 13:30

69 5.25 Newcastle 4.20 Man City 1.57 16:00

Scottish Championship

70 1.91 Hearts 3.40 Hibernian 4.00 12:30

France Le Championnat

71 1.67 Marseille 3.60 Montpellier 5.25 13:00

72 1.57 St Etienne 3.60 Reims 6.50 16:00

73 3.00 Bordeaux 3.20 Monaco 2.38 20:00

Monday 18 August 2014

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74 8.00 Burnley 4.50 Chelsea 1.40 20:00

Saturday 23 August 2014

Germany Bundesligabet365 Euro soccer bonus available if all your selections are from these leagues

75 2.20 Cologne 3.40 Hamburg 3.20 14:30

76 2.00 Frankfurt 3.50 Freiburg 3.60 14:30

77 2.90 Hannover 3.50 Schalke 2.30 14:30

78 2.10 Hertha Berlin 3.40 Werder Bremen 3.40 14:30

79 2.10 Hoffenheim 3.60 Augsburg 3.25 14:30

80 2.88 Paderborn 3.40 Mainz 2.38 14:30

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81 2.40 Almeria 3.30 Espanyol 2.88 17:00

82 1.10 Barcelona 9.00 Elche 21.00 17:00

83 2.00 Celta Vigo 3.40 Getafe 3.75 17:00

84 3.40 Eibar 3.30 Real Sociedad 2.15 17:00

85 2.10 Granada 3.25 Deportivo 3.60 17:00

86 3.30 Levante 3.25 Villarreal 2.20 17:00

87 2.88 Malaga 3.30 Athletic Bilbao 2.40 17:00

88 7.00 Rayo Vallecano 4.00 Atletico Madrid 1.50 17:00

89 1.07 Real Madrid 11.00 Cordoba 26.00 17:00

90 2.10 Sevilla 3.40 Valencia 3.40 17:00

Saturday 30 August 2014

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91 6.50 Chievo 3.80 Juventus 1.53 17:00

92 1.73 Roma 3.75 Fiorentina 4.50 19:45