Thursday, 28 August 2014

29th august 2014 summary of yesterday's matches


3pm - Shakhtar v Illychivets   -1.09 home

Profitable in-play opportunities
  • "2/3 goals expected of Shakhtar ( although 1.09 suggests 4+ goals) makes this a good DRT match as the home team are set to dominate. If Illychivets score first, back Shakhtar to win." 3-0 to Shakhtar and again a favourite too efficient to allow a DRT trade. In cases like this, with short priced favourites, you can lay the 0-0 halftime score in expectation of a goal before halftime. It happens so often with teams priced at 1.3 or lower.

430pm - KaPa v FC Espoo  - 1.53 home

Profitable in-play opportunities
  • "both teams could score today and Espoo not win" Fancy a 1-1? That's how it ended. Great research. The favourite did score first. There was no DRT trade , but as above, you can back the " both teams to score" market if you want.. 

6pm - Helsingborgs v Halmstads   -1.71 home

Profitable in-play opportunities
  • "both teams look like they could score today, that's if Halmstads don't revert to their performances against top 7 sides away
  • Lay 0-0 halftime score as late as you can in the first half." 1-2 at halftime and both teams scored today again. I took a "neutral" position here i.e. goals rather than saying " x or y team would win". It worked well. As above, you can use 0-0 halftime score lay or Both teams to score bet rather than trading if you want a play here.

6pm - Orebro v Brommapojkarna  - 1.43 home
  • "both teams could score today
  • there should be a goal before halftime so lay the 0-0 halftime score as late as possible in the first half.
  • 1/2 of Bromma's away matches are over 3.5 goals. If the match is 0-0 for a while consider over 3.5 goals at better odds than would appear pre-match." Superb research. 3-1 it ended, there was a goal before halftime and over 3.5 goals came in. Nice work!! Please give me some feedback if you are profiting from these in-play opportunities.
5pm - Go Ahead Eagles v Willem II  - 2.3 home
Profitable in-play opportunities
  • "both teams to score perhaps? And over 2.5 goals at least today for this match? That's what the small sample of matches suggest. Lay any side 2-0 up. Go ahead particularly have a history of fluffing their lines 2-0 up!" Yes, it was a small sample. A red card in the 2nd half may have thrown the over 2.5 goals out of the window. Go ahead scored, then got a red card themselves. 1-0 it ended. I suppose there was a 0-0 lay available. I was certainly monitoring that. 

730pm - Augsburg v Dortmund  - 1.75 away
Profitable in-play opportunities
  • "Dortmund have a history of scoring at least 2 goals against Augsburg so that could continue today. " 0-2 at halftime. 
  • "Augsburg scored in 3 of the last 4 head to heads and that might continue."  0-3 was the scoreline and if you thought Augsburg would score, then lay the 0-3 . They scored 2 ( very lucky I must say if you layed the 0-3)>
  •  I would have to favour Dortmund here as they need that first win, and sharpish!
730pm -Marseille v Nice  - 1.51 home
Profitable in-play opportunities
  • "the odds seem far too short for Marseille here, although there must be a story behind such positive odds. There are no massive signings so that doesn't explain it. The 3 matches this season are rather non-descript. So it suggests a lay of 1.51 shots here in what is a local derby. That seems the value play, although please remember we have little to work with this season so far." No luck here with the 1.51 lay and it is interesting isn't it, when the market throws us a puzzler. Why so short? Because someone knew Marseille would win easier than their previous form would suggest. 4-0 win.
9pm - Valencia v Malaga  - 1.53 home
Profitable in-play opportunities
  • "head to heads favour the home team, Malaga's dire away form favours the home team," 3-0 to Valencia in an easy enough home win.

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