saturday 23rd sunday 24th

Sunday, 24 August 2014

1030am - Dynamo Moscow   v   Ural - 1.3 home

• Dinamo Moscow are expected to win. 3/4 goals I would have expected shorter than 1.3 odds . Dinamo Moscow have been conceding so if they concede first, I will back them at enhanced odds. 
• There may be a goal before halftime so lay the 0-0 halftime score as late as you can.

1pm - Lyon   v   Lens - 1.5 home
Standout stats

• 4 consecutive wins for Lyon in head to heads. There has been a gap to this match of some 3 years
• Lyon were 5th last year  and Lens are a newly promoted side.
• Lyon have won 2-0 at home to Rennes, and lost 2-1 away to Toulouse.
• Nantes beat Lens 1-0 and lost 0-1 to Guincamp

Profitable in-play opportunities

• there is not much to go on. Lens seem capable in this new league but are being beaten by a single goal. The goals have come in the 65th and 90th minutes for Lens which might suggest that they can hold on for a while? The odds suggest otherwise.  If you want a value punt, back 0-0 pre-match and hope Lens continue to keep the match 0-0 at halftime.

130pm - Torpedo Moscow   v   FK Krasnodar  - 1.75 away
Standout stats

• no head to heads. Torpedo are newly promoted
• 2 defeats, a draw and a win so far for Torpedo.
• FK drew their first 2 matches and won their last 2 4-0 and 0-2. FK have kept 3 clean sheets this season
• Torpedo's win against Ural was care of a 73rd minute goal and an own goal, hardly convincing

Profitable in-play opportunities

• I would have to favour FK Krasnador in this match. Newcomers Torpedo are yet to convince me and so I will oppose them if they score first.

130pm - Hull v Stoke  - 2.54 home
Standout stats

• this is a very unappealing match. 2.54 odds suggests any favourite is an uneasy favourite and the match will be a tight one.
• 0-0 and 1-0 to Stoke in head to heads in the Premiership era. Are we to expect another tight match today?
• Hull beat QPR away from home 0-1 and Aston Villa beat Stoke at Stoke 1-0 so these are in keeping with the general under 1.5 goals vibe at the moment.

Profitable in-play opportunities

• Judging a match by a single game played is folly. If we were to add in the head to heads then backing 0-0 pre-match looks the obvious call in what could be a very tight match.

130pm - Anderlecht   v   Waasland-Beveren - 1.2 home
Standout stats

• about as appealing as a trip to the dentist.
• Only 2 head to heads 2013 and 2014 , a 0-0 and a 1-0 Stoke win. Will these tight matches continue?
• A 0-1 away win against QPR for Hull
• A 0-1 away loss against Aston Villa for Stoke. 
• So we can see the head to head tightness spill over into this present season, albeit with a really small sample.

Profitable inplay opportunities

• there are none really in another tough Premiership match. 2.54 for the favourite tells us as much. An extremely limited pattern of under 1.5 goals matches. Not so sure I can confidently say they will continue, given such a small sample!

130pm - Tottenham v QPR  - 1.48 home
 Standout stats

• a london derby and the last time these 2 teams met was in January 2013, a 0-0.The general pattern of head to heads is to favour the home side. 3 Spurs wins in the last 3 home matches for them.
• Spurs won away to West Ham 0-1  ( another London derby) in their opening match.
• QPR lost 0-1 to Hull. Spurs were very lucky to win with a 90th minute winner. 
• Both of the goals were scored in the 2nd half in these 2 teams' opening matches.

Profitable in-play opportunities

• head to heads point to the home team being favoured in this clash. Can we stick with that this time. This pattern runs for 5 matches, 2 at QPR and 3 at Tottenham.
• Do remember that this is a London Derby. Maybe a cards/bookings bet would be of interest?

130pm - NAC Breda   v   Twente - 1.8 away
Standout stats

• Twente are unbeaten in the last 6 head to heads, winning the last 2 league head to heads 5-2 and 0-2.
• Neither of these 2 have won a dutch Eredivisie match this season. NAC have drawn with Excelsior and lost 6-1 away to PSV.
• Twente have drawn 1-1 away to Cambuur ( a good DRT) and drew 2-2 at home to ADO Den haag ( another DRT as they were 1-2 down in that match)>

Profitable in-play opportunities

• both teams have scored this season in their matches. Will that continue today? Already Twente are becoming adept at coming back from conceding the first goal, so have confidence that Twente can come back again and equaliseif NAC score first.In both of these side's matches, at least one goal has been scored before halftime. It is a very limited sample though of 2 matches each 

130pm - Feyenoord   v   Utrecht - 1.44 home
Standout stats

• 4 consecutive wins for Feyenoord in head to heads. 
• Feyenoord have won 0-1 and drawn 1-1 in their 2 matches this season. No goal yet before halftime
• Utrecht have lost away to Zwolle 2-0 and beat Willem II 2-1. With Utrecht, no goals before halftime yet.
• This is 2nd v 10th from last year.Feyenoord were only 4 points behind Ajax last season.

Profitable in-play opportunities

• the last head to head was 2-5 to Feyenoord and the market suggests they can score 2/3 at least today in another head to head win. This season is only 2 matches old and both sides are yet to see a goal before halftime. With Zwolle scoring 2 against Utrecht, I think Feyenoord can follow suit. Lay Utrecht if Utrecht score first here. 

230pm - Paderborn   v   Mainz 05 - 2.37 away
Standout stats

• One of only 2 Bundesliga matches today and it would seem Paderborn are a newly promoted side.
• Mainz finished 7th last year but are relatively unfancied today against newly promoted.
• Mainz were rock solid at home last season, but away, they recorded only 5 wins, ( both sides scored in all wins) 4 of those wins were against bottom 7 sides ( we are assuming Paderborn will struggle?)
• Both teams scored in 76% of Mainz's away matches last season
• Paderborn were 2nd last year in Bundesliga 2 and lost only 3 home matches

Profitable in-play opportunities

• toughie to call. I would have expected 7th in the Bundesliga last year ( remembering that Bayern/Dortmund and Leverkusen naturally fill 3 spots so that 7th is a good position) to have been stronger favourite. 

345pm - Ajax   v   PSV Eindhoven - 1.83 home
Standout stats

• 3 wins for Ajax at home in head to heads and at PSV 4-2, 2-3, 4-0
• this could be a title contender this early on in the season
• wins for both teams this season, both teams scoring 
• Both teams have scored 3+ in each match

Profitable in-play opportunities

• I am not sure that there should be an odds on favourite here. Both sides are in supreme form, albeit only 2 matches gone this season
• Head to heads favour the home side here and results at Ajax have been tighter than at PSV .Lay any team 2-0 up here . 

4pm - St Etienne   v   Rennes - 1.8 home
Standout stats

• live chatters attest to how solid St Etienne were last weekend. They went behind but were so dominant stats wise that they ended up winning with relative ease.
• St Etienne have yet to concede in 4 home head to heads. A 0-0 last time though.
• Rennes are a lot more competitive in head to heads when AT Rennes.
• St Etienne were very solid after conceding first against Reims. They went on to win 3-1. That followed a 0-2 away win to start off. 
• REnnes lost 2-0 away to Lyon and beat Evian 6-2

Profitable in-play opportunities

• slight advantage here for me for St Etienne. Only 2 matches each to go on though, but I liked the stats inplay for St Etienne at home last week. More of the same please! There are obviously goals in rennes against the right opponents. BUT note the head to heads at St Etienne historically see a clean sheet for the home side.

430pm - Borussia M'gladbach   v   Stuttgart - 1.91 home
Standout stats

• the 2nd Bundesliga match today. Head to heads show BM win, Stuttgart win, Stuttgart win, BM win and then 1-1 draw. So there is no strongly favoured team in head to heads. Both teams have scored in the last 3 head to heads held at M'gladbach.
• 6th last season plays 15th from last season. A solid season for the home side
• at home M'gladbach only lost 3 matches, 2 of them were against 1st and 4th 
• Things are pretty damning for Stuttgart home and away last season against the top 8 sides, where they lost 14 matches, drew 1 and won 1.

Profitable in-play opportunities

• we can't be sure that last season's form is transferable to a clean slate new season , but if it is, it suggests Stuttgart will have trouble against against the better sides in the Bundesliga, and with M'gladbach finishing 6th last season, they must be one of the better sides. 
• Do note that both teams have scored in the last 3 M'gladbach head to heads. If Stuttgart score first, I would look to lay them. Caveat - this is the opening match of the season and a watching brief is advised, but you may be swayed by Stuttgart's poor form last season.

430pm - Halmstads BK   v   Elfsborg - 1.91 away

Standout stats

• 5 wins and 2 draws in the last 7 head to heads in favour of Elfsborg. There were 2 score draws in the last 3 head to heads.
• Both teams have scored in the last 7 head to heads
• this is 12th v 3rd

Halmstads

• have won only 6 matches all season and did win 4 of their last 5 matches. A turning point?
• have scored in their last 8 home matches and conceded in their last 5 home matches
• 80% over 2.5 goals at home
• have scored and conceded at home to all top 13 sides. More of the same today?
• have scored and conceded in 8 of their last 9 matches
• only 2 clean sheets this season
• have failed to score in only 2 of their last 16 matches
• 5 0-0's at halftime at home
• Only once at home has an opponent led at halftime

Elfsborg

• have scored in their last 6 away matches and last 8 matches overall.
• have kept 4 clean sheets in their last 5 matches
• only failed to score in 3 matches this season
• only 5 matches played away v 8th and below, but on 4 occasions, both teams scored.

Profitable in-play opportunities

• both teams scoring seems to pervade the stats here. So, despite Elfsborg's 4 clean sheets in 5 matches, can we expect both teams to score again?
• If Elfsborg lead in the first half consider laying them in the HALFTIME market.
• It looks as if Halmstads will concede at some stage if the match is 0-0 for a while.

4pm - Sunderland v Man Utd  - 1.77 away
Standout stats

• Oh dear, Man Utd lose their opening match of the season for the first time since Florence Nightingale was the physio.
• We have new manager syndrome with Manchester United which makes any head to heads etc very hard to incorporate into conclusions. And last year we had yer man Moyes make a pig's ear out of the season so we cannot really take last year's form on trust.
• Sunderland drew 2-2 away at West Brom in their opening match , scored first, were pegged back , 2-1 down before a late 2-2 equaliser.
• Man Utd conceded first against Swansea, equalised, then conceded again . They were a good DRT side.

Profitable in-play opportunities

• instinct would say that this current United side are layable whenever they touch odds on until there is a sign of stability?
• Past form for United is irrelevant to today because of the new manager syndrome. So this is a match to monitor and consider in-play

5pm - Estoril   v   Rio Ave - 1.85 home
Standout stats

Profitable in-play opportunities

515pm - PAOK Salonika   v   Kalloni AEL - 1.25 home
Standout stats

• the Greek Super league begins and Olympiakos and PAOK are set to dominate proceedings.
• 2-5 and 2-1 wins for PAOK in head to heads suggests kalloni can play some part.
• only 2 losses in 15 for PAOK last season. 
• PAOK are rock solid at home  - 18 wins in their last 20 home league matches. In those 20 matches, PAOK did not concede more than 1 goal.
• only4 wins in 14 matches for Kalloni in the Super League last year.
• 12 defeats in their last 15 away matches

Profitable in-play opportunities

• this looks fairly straightforward for PAOK, so it will make for a good DRT match.  Kalloni have scored in the last 2 head to heads so hope Kalloni score first so we can back PAOK

515pm - Atromitos   v   Platanias Chanion - 1.57 home
Standout stats

Profitable in-play opportunities

6pm - Eibar   v   Real Sociedad - 2.25 away
Standout stats

Profitable in-play opportunities




6pm - RNK Split   v   Slaven Belupo - 1.57 home
Standout stats

Profitable in-play opportunities




6pm - Lok Zagreb   v   Rijeka - 1.65 away
Standout stats

Profitable in-play opportunities




7pm - CS Universitatea Craiova   v   Petrolul Ploiesti - 1.61 away
Standout stats

Profitable in-play opportunities

730pm - Levadiakos   v   Panathinaikos - 1.53 away
Standout stats

• this is the first match of the Greek Super league season.
• 0-4 and 3-1 wins for Panathanaikos in the last 2 head to heads
• only 1 draw for Levadiakos in 30 Greek Super league matches. Will they continue to avoid the draw in this new Greek League season.?
• Only 1 loss in 15 league games at home for Levadiakos. Interesting that the loss was against Panathanaikos
• Panathanaikos are tough to read.Only 1 win in their last 5 away league matches last sesaon 

Profitable in-play opportunities

• Panathanaikos are obviously favoured here based on head to heads.Levasiakos had a solid home record but the elephant in the room was their loss to Panathanaikos.

730pm - Boavista   v   Benfica - 1.2 away
Standout stats

• Boavista are newly promoted and struggled against Braga.
• Boavista lost to Braga 3-0 and Benfica won 2-0 at home

Profitable in-play opportunities

• no more research to do. Benfica are expected to win comfortably today , they won the league last year. Lay Boavista if Boavista score first.

8pm - Dinamo Zagreb   v   NK Zagreb - 1.14 home
Standout stats

• 3 wins in 4 head to heads for Dinamo Zagreb
• 5 consecutive wins for Dinamo Zagreb and only 1 win for Zagreb this season -they have scored and conceded in 4 of their last 5 matches this season
• The last defeat at home for Dinamo Zagreb was in August 2010
• That's the angle in -Dinamo Zagreb are not expected to lose at home so if they are losing at home, back them at enhanced odds.

8pm - Moreirense   v   Braga - 1.83 away
Standout stats

Profitable in-play opportunities

8pm - Celta Vigo   v   Getafe - 1.83 home
Standout stats

Profitable in-play opportunities

8pm - Nantes   v   Monaco - 2.3 away

Standout stats

• Draw, Win, Win for Monaco in the last 3 head to heads coincided with money.
• Nantes have won 1 and drawn 1 match this season.
• Something is up with Monaco who have lost 2 matches, 1-2 v Lorient and 4-1 away to Bordeaux.
• Note Monaco have scored in their defeats.A couple of sales for Monaco in Rodriguez to Real madrid and Riviere to Newcastle.

Profitable in-play opportunities

• I don't know what's up with Monaco. They are getting beaten by teams they'd ordinarily have beaten last season. A watching brief therefore early on this season and it will be followed via live chat.

8pm - Barcelona   v   Elche - 1.08 home
Standout stats

• 4-0 and 0-0 in head to heads. Only the most optimistic of folks would look for a 0-0 today
• Barcelona were 2nd by 3 points and Elche 5th bottom, surviving the bottom 3 by 1 point
• I'm not going to research further. 4-0 or something like that is expected. Another good DRT match as Barcelona are expected to win with ease.
• Usually we'd expect goals before halftime so lay 0-0 halftime score if the match is 0-0 for a while.

10pm - Levante   v   Villarreal - 2.25 away