3pm - Catania v Siena - 2.28 home
3pm - Iraklis Psachna v Panathinaikos - 1.52 away
Standout stats
- This is a Greek Cup match between a Football League and Super League side.
- Iraklis have only 1 loss in their last 10, markedly, it's a 3-0 away defeat to Panathanaikos in the first leg of this Cup match.
- The reason therefore that Panathanaikos's odds are a little higher than you'd expect is because of questionable motivation with such a lead.
- Since March 2013, Iraklis have only lost 3 home matches, all 0-1 defeats.
Profitable in play opportunities
- It is obvious here that Panathanaikos are the better side. Being 3-0 up, they only need to avoid the concession of 3 goals minimum without scoring to ensure they are through. Iraklis need to win 3-0 just to gain parity here .
4pm - Braga v Beira-Mar - 1.23 home
Standout stats
- This is a Primera Liga team versus a Liga de Honra cup in the Portugeuse cup.
- This time last year, in the same competition, Braga won 3-0 against Beira-Mar. Is this a template for today?
- Since 10th November 2013, only Benfica and Porto have beaten Braga. This tells you that they are in good form. Indeed, Braga have won 4 of their last 5 matches, scoring 2 goals minimum in those 4 wins.
- Braga have won their last 4 home matches in all competitions, scoring 2 minimum.
- Braga have not lost any of their last 11 Taca de liga matches ( in 90 minutes).
- Braga have kept 5 consecutive clean sheets at home in the Taca de liga.
- Beira-Mar have lost their last 5 matches in all competitions. 4 of those defeats were 1-0's so it's not quite panic stations, just a bit of tweaking required from Beira-Mar.
- Beira-Mar have not had an away draw in their last 12 matches. They failed to score in 4 of their last 6 matches.
- Only 2 wins in Beira-Mar's last 9 Taca de liga matches suggests they are not nencessarily "up for the cup".
- As if to emphasise their troubles scoring, Beira-Mar have lost 2 of their last 3 Taca de liga matches 1-0.
Profitable in play opportunites
- Can we rely in the 3-0 in this exact fixture last year ( in Braga's favour)?
- Beira-Mar are having trouble scoring of late. It will be a shock should they open the scoring, a shock I suspect we can take advantage of as traders.
- Given that Beira-Mar have lost 4 of their last 5 matches ( albeit against lower league opponents) 1-0 only, there is a tenuous argument for backing 0-0 pre-match at its highest point and hope Beira-Mar keep the match 0-0 for long enough to ensure a good trade.
5pm - AC Milan v Spezia - 1.21 home
Standout stats
- Milan's unreliability can be summed up in their last match. 0-2 up against Sassuolo, they lost the first half 3-2 and lost the match 4-3.
- This is a Coppa Italia match between Seria A and Seria B sides.
- Only 2 losses in their last 12 matches for AC Milan came in their last 3 matches ( against Inter Milan and Sassuolo).
- Milan have had 4 draws in their last 7 home matches.
- Since 2010, Milan have suffered only 2 defeats in the Coppa Italia in 90 minutes, losing to Palermo away, and Juventus. Both scores were 2-1.
- At home in the Coppa Italia, Milan have only lost one of their last 6 matches, that 1-2 result v Juventus.
- Milan scored 3 goals in 2 of their last 3 home Coppa matches.
- Spezia have only had one draw in their last 12 matches in all competitions ( a 0-0).
- Spezia have generally played lower league opponents in the Coppa Italia so it's difficult to gauge v a team such as Milan.
- It's pretty conclusive away from home. 5 losses in 5 Coppa Italia away matches for Spezia.
Profitable in play opportunities
- Milan are in good form. They have only lost to Inter ( Derby??) and Sassuolo ( poor after being 0-2 up) in their last 12 matches.
- Milan are unlikely to lose today, but have had 4 draws at home recently. Lay Spezia if Spezia score first.
- Team news key for Milan, although they have a 4 day break to their next match.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
5pm - Galatasaray v Tokatspor - 1.15 home
Standout stats
- The cup continues into Turkey with Super Lig Galatasary hosting 2 Lig side Tokatspor.
- Galatasary have won 6 of their last 7 matches. They have scored and conceded though in 4 of their last 5 matches. As you know by now, 1.15 suggests a win , scoring 3/4 goals and possibly to nil.
- Galatasary have won 9 of their last 10 matches at home, only failing to score 2 goals or more on one occasion.
- Galatasary have only won 3 of their last 9 Cup matches , 2 of those wins were against Balikesispor and all of those wins saw them score 4 goals.
- Galatasary do throw in the odd howler, with a recent 1-2 loss at home to 1461 Trabzon.
- At home, Galatasary have only lost 2 matches in the cup since 2004, but those 2 losses came in their last 5 matches.
- We move directly to the cup form for Tokatspor, given their 2 Lig form is difficult to put into context as regards playing a Super Lig team. Tokatspor have kept 4 consecutive cup clean sheets and 5 in their last 6. Again it is tough to gauge as they are generally playing lower league opposition.
- Tokatspor have lost 5 of their last 6 away Cup matches. Fenerbahce was the only recignisable opponent there ( a 3-2 loss)
Profitable in play opportunities
- This should be easy pickings for Galatasary , although note they have thrown in the odd home cup howler.
- Galatasary have scored 4 goals in each of their recent 3 wins in the cup, and that ties in with 1.15 . Speculate on 4-1 and 4-0, albeit as trades they are difficult as Betfair only goes up to 3-3.
- 1.15 shots are expected to open the scoring in the first half. So speculate on a 0-0 halftime score lay as late as possible in what might, though, be an illiquid betting market.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
545pm - ESTAC Troyes v Evian TG - 2.36 home
545pm - Nantes v Nice - 2.2 home
6pm - Atromitos v Panaitolikos - 1.6 home
Standout stats
- This is a Greek Cup match between 2 Super League sides.
- Atromitos have lost only 1 of their last 18 matches and kept a team as superior as Olympiakos to a 0-0 in their last match.
- Atromitos have lost only 1 of their last 16 home matches and that was in the Europa League.
- Atromitos have lost only 1 of their last 18 cup matches . This seems to be the 2nd leg as they beat Panaitolikos 0-2 on 4th December 2013.
- Panaitolikos have only had 1 draw in their last 10 ( 0-0)
- When Panaitolikos start travelling, they start showing poor form. They have not won their last 8 away matches, losing their last 5 , failing to score in 3 of their last 4.
Profitable in play opportunities
- what stands out here is the dire away form for Panaitolikos and that may count against them in match where Atromitos already hold a 2-0 lead.
- Atromitos need a 0-0, and will tolerate a 1-0 loss to go through. Panaitolikos need a 2-0 to restore parity and a 3-0 to go through.
- It may be worth speculating on 0-0 pre match given that 1) this is Greek football and 2) Atromitos only need a 0-0 to progress.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
630pm - Ath Bilbao v Betis - 1.35 home
Standout stats
- This is the 2nd leg of a Copa del rey double header and Ath Bilbao are trailing 1-0 from the first leg.
- Bilbao have had only 2 draws ( score draws) in their last 14 matches in all competitions. A score draw will not help today.
- Bilbao are unbeaten in their last 11 home matches. They have won their last 5 matches, including a 6-1 demolition of Almeria when priced similarly to today's 1.35 odds.
- Bilbao were in this same Cup situation in December 2013 when they trailed 1-0 away to Celta de vigo, only to win the corresponding home fixture 4-0. More of the same today?
- Bilbao, though, have only won 1 of their last 6 matches, failing to score in 4 matches.
- Since October 2006 in the Cup, Bilbao have lost only 2 matches at home , both against Barcelona.
- Betis have won only 5 of their last 24 matches in all competitions, 4 of those wins were 1-0. They are in poor form and I would expect preference surely for Primera Division survival rather than a distracting Copa Del Rey run?
- Betis have won only 2 of their last 12 away matches in all competitions, so the poor form continues on their travels.
- Betis are more competitive in the Copa Del Rey. They have lost only 1 of their last 8, that was against Atl Madrid.
- In their last 6 away Cup matches, Betis have lost 4, drawn 1 and won 1. Their 4 defeats came without scoring.
Profitable in play opportunities
- Betis are in really poor form. They hold a 1-0 lead for this 2nd leg so a 0-0 suits, as does a score draw.
- This match may revolve around what Bilbao did when in a similar situation against Celta de vigo. They won the home match 4-0. Expect them to react positively today in the Copa Del Rey as Barcelona are the only team to have beaten them at home since October 2006.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
630pm - Espanyol v Alcorcon - 1.54 home
630pm - Porto v Penafiel - 1.12 home
Standout stats
- This is a Taca De Liga match between Primera Division Porto and Liga de Honra side Penafiel
- Porto have kept clean sheets in 3 of their last 4 Taca de liga matches and 1.12 does suggest 3/4 goals minimum and a win to nil.
- Penafiel now have 2 consecutive 0-0's in the Taca de liga. Backing 0-0 pre-match might offer a good trading opportunity if this ultra defensive mentality is brought to bare against Porto. Note the odds as I write are poor for the 0-0 ( 20) given a 1.12 priced side is playing. Perhaps look to back 0-0 with bookmakers and trade via Betfair?
- Porto have won 7 of their last 8 home Taca matches to nil.Penafiel have kept 3 consecutive Taca away sheets.
Profitable in play opportunities
- A fairly easy win should be on the cards this evening. Stats wise, the only value to eek out of this evening comes with a 0-0 pre match back trade, to lay off as late as possible. This is based more on Penafiel's 3 consecutive away clean sheets in the Taca de liga, and 2 consecutive 0-0's in the Taca de liga.
- 1.12 shots are expected to score before halftime, so lay the 0-0 halftime score as late as you can .
730pm - Lokeren v Westerlo - 1.58 home
755pm - Lyon v Marseille - 2.24 home
8pm - Napoli v Atalanta - 1.33 home
Standout stats
- These 2 Seria A sides fight out this Coppa Italia match.
- Napoli have won the 2 2013 home meetings .
- Napoli are on a 7 match unbeaten streak in all competitions, scoring 4-3-2-4-1-2-3, including wins against Arsenal and Inter Milan.
- Napoli have lost only 2 of their last 24 home matches, against Parma and Porto.
- In the Coppa Italia, it is against Seria A sides that Napoli falter, most recently against Bologna 1-2 this time last year ( albeit a Bologna 90th minute winner).
- Napoli have won 4 of their last 6 Coppa matches, scoring 2 goals in each.
- Napoli's loss to Bologna was their only home loss in the Coppa since August 2006. They are not expected, surely, to have 2 consecutive home defeats after going 8 years without a home defeat in the Coppa Italia?
- Atalanta are in poor overall form currently. They have only won 3 of their last 12 matches in all competitions.
- Atalanta are dire away from home in all competitions. They have won only 1of their last 13 away matches and lost 10 of those.
- Atalanta have won 4 of their last 5 Coppa matches, albeit against lower league opponents. The sole defeat, 3-0 , was to Seria A side Roma.
- Away, Atalanta have won only 1 of their last 5 Coppa matches.
Profitable in play opportunities
- Napoli will not want to have 2 consecutive defeats in the Coppa Italia at home, after having avoided home cup defeats in the previous 8 years!
- Atalanta are dire away from home. This should affirm a lay of Atalanta if they lead at any stage.
- Napoli could score 2 goals minimum tonight as long as the team selected is reasonably strong.
810pm - Man City v Blackburn - 1.14 home
Standout stats
- This replay for Man City is about as welcome as a fart in a spacesuit, to quote Billy Connolly.
- Manchester City have matches today, on the 18th January, 21st January ( League Cup) and 29th January. City were leading 0-1 away at Blackburn but Blackburn equalised. Research again is unnecessary here.
- Team news is key for Manchester City. They have scored 6 goals in 2 of their last 4 matches at home. 1.14 suggests the job will be finished emphatically this evening. If Dzeko starts ( and he could very well start this evening), perhaps speculate on him hitting the scoresheet, or a hatrick being scored.
- 1.14 suggests 3/4 goals minimum and a possible win to nil.
830pm - Osasuna v Real Madrid - 1.38 away
Standout stats
- I don't think research will really help. This is a 2nd leg match and Real Madrid hold a 2-0 lead.
- Osasuna need to win 2-0 to ensure this copa del rey match continues. Real Madrid need a 0-0 minimum.
- Base your trading decisions therefore around Real Madrid avoiding extra time. If Osasuna lead 1-0 therefore, chance a comeback from Real Madrid.
- Real Madrid are away to Betis on the 18th January. Perhaps there'll be some team changes today given the importance of winning La Liga matches from hereon in.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
845pm - Benfica v Leixoes - 1.13 home
Standout stats
- This Taca le Liga cup match features Primera Liga Benfica against Liga de Honra Leixoes.
- Benfica have won 9 of their last 10 matches in all competitions.
- Benfica have kept 4 consecutive clean sheets.
- At home, Benfica have not lost any of their last 12 matches.
- In their last 14 home matches in the Taca de liga, Benfica have won the lot, scoring 2+ goals in 12 of those matches.
- Benfica have never lost a Taca de liga match home or away since January 2009 ( in fact that is the opening date of www.soccerway.com's stats )
- Leixoes have lost in 5 of their last 6 matches. They have lost 3 of their last 4 away matches.
- Leixoes have some form against Primera Liga sides in the Taca de liga . They beat Guimaraes 2-1 in the 2 legs those teams played and most recently, Gil Vicente were held to a 0-0. It must be said though that Porto and Benfica are a step ahead of those mentioned top flight sides.
- If Leixoes are to win away , they will have to score 2 goals at least as they have in the 3 cup wins they have had away.
Profitable in play opportunities
- Benfica are in solid form and that 1.13 quote is expected to produce the 3/4 goals that it predicts.
- Benfica are expected to score 2+ as they have in 12 of their last 14 home Taca de liga cup matches.
- As I have repeated many times today, such a short odds side is expected to score at least a goal in the first 45 minutes of football. If this has not occured late on, lay the 0-0 halftime score.
No comments:
Post a Comment