Monday, 27 January 2014

DRT review SUNDAY

1245pm - Hibernian( HIBS) v Celtic - 1.36 away

Profitable in play opportunities

It is interesting that Hibs have such a solid record against Celtic this season already . Will that continue, particularly as Hibs have scored 2 goals average in their last 6 matches.
Celtic could serve up another clean sheet so must be favoured.
It is tough to predict a DRT angle given the positive early season head to heads, the fact Hibs have kept 6 halftime 0-0's at home ( back 0-0 pre match perhaps),. and with Celtic keeping clean sheets.

Fulltime - 0-4
Halftime - 0-1
First goal scored - 8 minutes
Last goal scored - 90th minute ( penalty)

Celtic won to nil as I suggested. The DRT's were not there given Celtic scoring first and keeping a clean sheet.

1pm - Sheffield United v Fulham - 2.5 away

No research done

Fulltime - 1-1
Halftime- 1-0
First goal scored - 31 minutes
Last goal scored - 75th minute
Red card  - 52 minutes Sheffield United

This was a match I mentioned within the DRT live chat. Sheffield United took the lead and even after their red card in the 52nd minute , they were still odds on to lay in-play, reaching a low I believe of 1.75. This was a great value lay given they were down to 10 men , and a league one side playing a Premiership side.

Why didn't I research? It was an FA Cup match and the away side were priced at 2.5 which suggests little faith from the market.

1pm - Lyon v Evian - 1.55 home

Profitable in play opportunities
the value is in opposing Lyon based on head to heads, but recent form might supercede historical form.
Will Lyon continue to score at least 2 goals as they have recently?
Lyon are the form side, only losing the PSG recently, the same PSG have Evian beat in their only win in 9.
Evian should concede at some stage . If the match is 0-0 at halftime, it wouldn't be a shock.
These matches are tough to call. As I say it is historical form v most recent form. Which is most reliable?

Fulltime - 3-0
Halftime- 2-0
First goal scored - 19 minutes
Last goal scored - 76th minute
Red card  - 40 minutes Evian

This was a match where I decided to lay Lyon at odds of 1.02 when 2-0 up. The reason? My research suggested that Evian could be a bogey team, having 2 draws and a win in the last 3 head to heads.
This lay was not fruitful , but was low enough to ensure any risk was kept to a bare minimum.

130pm - Go Ahead Eagles V Ajax - 1.45 away

Profitable in play opportunities

Ajax are quite clear in head to heads and will be expected to win. When a team has lost 2 consecutive head to heads 6-0, you begin to look for a defensive reaction from them. Also, why are Ajax not 1.17 or odds reflective of a team with the capability of winning 6-0?
Go ahead should be layed if scoring first. Their wins tend to come against 10th and lower.
Ajax have been poor away v 8th and above a a mystery re their performance away v 9th-13th inclusive ( where Go ahead resides.)
0-0 halftime score could be layed.

Fulltime - 0-1
Halftime- 0-0
First goal scored - 74th minute
Last goal scored - same

This match was tough to predict as Ajax had not played 9th to 13th inclusive away from home ( where Go ahead eagles are positioned).
I put forward a 0-0 halftime score lay, meaning I expected a goal before halftime. It did not come.
I decided to lay under 3.5 goals at odds of 1.14 at halftime  because of Ajax's goals record. The first goal came after 74 minutes. After than, Ajax hit the crossbar, but did not score any more goals.


2pm - Inter v Catania - 1.36 home

Profitable in play opportunities

Inter should get back on the winning trail today given their good wins to nil against bottom 3 sides, as well as Catania's defeats away from home, conceding 2+ goals on each occasion.
Inter have had trouble infront of goal, so watch out for that.
MATCH ODDS - lay Catania if Catania score first. Lay any late draw - Inter had no 0-0 this season
HALFTIME SCORE - with such a poor scoring record against an away team in such poor form, I would not chance a 0-0 halftime score lay.

Fulltime - 0-0

This is a match where I corrrectly left the 0-0 halftime score lay alone. This was another match where the crossbar was hit. I layed 0-0 at odds of 3.5 , together with 2 other teams in Seria A. This was the only match to finish 0-0.

2pm - Cagliari v Milan - 1.85 away

Profitable in play opportunities

both teams could score today. If so, lay any team 2-0 up. There are signs of a return to , at least, unbeaten form for Milan.
Milan are favoured inhead to heads.

Fulltime - 1-2
Halftime- 1-0
First goal scored - 28th minute
Last goal scored - 89th minute

This was a match to keep faith in Milan. Cagliari were layable as low as 1.3 in the match odds market, and Milan were backable at odds of at least 14 ( from memory).
If you had kept faith in Milan not losing, then you would have profited extremely well as the Milan equaliser came in the 87th minute and the winner in the 89th minute.
This was a classic DRT match for those who kept faith in Milan.

2pm - Torino v Atalanta - 1.8 home

Profitable in play opportunities

this should not end 0-0, so lay any 0-0 as late as you can at as low a price as you can get.
there is an argument for between 2-4 goals for Torino today. They have scored that amount in 4 matches against 11th and lower at home, and guess what, Atalanta have conceded 2-2-4 in defeats away to top 8 sides ( Torino are 7th).
advantage Torino today so lay Atalanta if Atalanta lead at any stage.

Fulltime - 1-0
Halftime 0-0
First goal  - 60th minute penalty
Red Card - Atalanta 90th minute

This was a simple DRT. We lay the 0-0 at halftime as I mentioned above in the research. The goal came in an obviously tight match, on the hour mark

2pm - Sampdoria v Bologna - 1.8 home

Profitable in play opportunities

Sampdoria could score 2 goals at their best today, and could concede, although Bologna are poor away goalscorers.
We might see 2nd half action. So do not be suprised with a 0-0 at halftime.

Fulltime - 1-1
Halftime 0-0
First goal  - 61st minute
Last goal - 90th minute penalty

This was excellent research and panned out exactly as predicted. The match was 0-0 at halftime. Why did I predict that? Well Sampdoria had scored 13 of their 14 goals in the 2nd half at home, and Bologna had conceded 19 2nd half goals away.
I confidently put up a 0-0 halftime lay which was successful.

2pm - Parma v Udinese - 1.9 home

Profitable in play opportunities

due warning. Wolfsburg were 1.6 shots at home but I pointed out to you that Hannover had won the last 4 meetings. Indeed Hannover won yesterday. Today we have the same as Udinese have won 3 of the last 4 matches scoring 3 when meeting Parma.
So your entry into this market is based on head to head Udinese dominance or recent form which sees Udinese conceding 3 in each of their last 3 matches.
lay 0-0 halftime score after about 15 minutes if still 0-0. These 2 have a history of scoring and conceding late in the first half.
only 1st and 2nd have beaten Parma at home, so they should not lose, but do remember the head to heads.

Fulltime - 1-0
Halftime 1-0
First goal  - 35th minute
Last goal - same

This was nice and simply. Lay the 0-0 halftime score after about 15 minutes if the match is still 0-0. The goal came in the 35th minute for a nice simple profit.

5pm - Gaziantepspor ( Gaz)v Galatasaray - 1.55 away

Profitable in play opportunities

this could reflect previous head to heads. I foresee a 0-1, 1-1, 1-2 kind of a scoreline with Galatasary having to really work.
WARNING - Gaz have not yet met top 4 at home this season so we cannot really gauge their set up against big teams at home.
Both teams could score today I feel given Galatasary's recent record and only 3 clean sheets this season.
Expectation, stats wise, is for a tight match.

Fulltime 0-0
Halftime 0-0

This was a predictably tight match. Not as tight as I envisioned. I expected a goal from both sides but that did not come .

530pm - Xanthi V Olympiacos - 1.33 away

Profitable in play opportunities

play the probabilities today. Will Olympiakos really have another 0-0 away from home? I don't believe so.
Difficult to really get a DRT angle in as Olympiakos keep so many clean sheets. I have earned big money by laying the 0-0 in the 90th+ minutes of Olympiakos matches. That seems our only hope
There are no halftime stats for Greece.

Fulltime - 0-2
Halftime - 0-1
First goal scored - 24th minute
Last goal scored - 89th minute
Red Cards - 48th minute Xanthi and 73rd minute Olympiakos

This was a match where we look to avoid the 0-0. It was tough to get a value trade as Olympiakos scored first and kept a clean sheet.

6pm - Rayo Vallecano v Atlético Madrid - 1.36 away

Profitable in play opportunities

important patterns to end? 2 consecutive draws for Atl Madrid have stopped them going top on their own. Will this draw sequence end today?
Lay the 0-0 halftime score
Look for a possible Atl Madrid win to nil, although Rayo did score 2 in defeat to 3rd and 5th at home.

Fulltime - 2-4
Halftime - 1-3
First goal scored - 8th minute
Last goal scored - 76th minute

The 0-0 halftime score lay was successful. A slight warning that Rayo might score 2, which indeed they did. This was a match where we were looking to oppose any draw, as Atl Madrid had 2 consecutive draws.

745pm - Fiorentina v Genoa - 1.4 home

Profitable in play opportunities

advantage Fiorentina here so if Genoa score first, lay Genoa.
there is a lack of congruity here. Fiorentina could keep a clean sheet in victory but have scored and conceded in all home matches against 14th and above.

Fulltime - 3-3
Halftime - 2-2
First goal scored - 27th minute Genoa penalty
Last goal scored - 78th minute Genoa

Fiorentina , 1.4 shots, went 0-1 down and 1-2 down, so there was plenty of excellent DRT trading in this match. Fiorentina eventually took a 3-2 lead, before a late equaliser. It is at 0-1 and 1-2 that we would be either laying Genoa or backing 1.4 shots Fiorentina at much better odds.

8pm - Barcelona v Málaga - 1.09 home

Profitable in play opportunities

It's difficult to tell which Malaga turns up. If the ultra defensive malaga turn up, we may have a chance of a DRT . But 1.09 suggests goals galore and a possible clean sheet. 
Barcelona should not continue their 2 match draw sequence. 
0-0 halftime score should be a logical lay, but Malaga could be a tough nut to crack early on.

Fulltime - 3-0
Halftime - 1-0
First goal scored - 40th minute
Last goal scored - 61st minute

Indeed,Malaga were a " tough nut to crack", keeping a clean sheet until the 40th minute of the first half.
There were " goals galore and a possible clean sheet" as predicted.






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