Wednesday, 29 January 2014

29th January 2014



1130am - Tokatspor v Antalyaspor - 1.52 away

2pm - OFI v Panionios - 1.72 home

4pm - Panathinaikos v Olympiakos Volou - 1.26 home
Standout stats

  • this is a greek cup match between Super League and lower Football league teams.
PANATHANAIKOS
  • only 1 draw in 21 matches in all competitions
  • 10 wins in their last 13 
  • 3 of their last 4 wins have been 1-0.
  • no draw in 11 at home i n all competitions
  • 5 wins in their last 6 home matches.
  • Panathanaikos look up for the cup. Only 2 losses in 90 minutes in their last 20 matches
  • 9 wins and a solitary loss to AEK Athens in the last 10 home cup matches.
OLYMPIAKOS VOLOU
  • 12 consecutive wins in all competitions.
  • 5 consecutive away wins in all competitions
  • note the 7 consecutive clean sheets away before the concession of a single goal in the last away cup match.
  • only 2 defeat in the last 12 in the cup includes a 1-0 win and 0-0 v top flight Aris 
  • 3 of the last 4 opponents away from home were Super league, resulting in 2-2, 2-0, 0-0.
Profitable in play opportunities
  • any siding with Panathanaikos suggests the we discount Volou's impressive winning run because it is largely achieved in a lesser league against lesser opponents. This might be borne out by the 3 aways recently against top flight teams in the cup where Volou failed to score in 2.
  • take it cautiously in Greece. Perhaps a 0-0 pre match back incase the 0-0 greek goblins return to haunt us.
  • only 1 draw in 21 for Panathaniakos should be exploited in play by laying any late draw.


6pm - Galatasaray v Elazigspor - 1.26 home
Standout stats

  • we were rather let down by a 0-0 in Galatasary's last match-they were playing away from home- and a hope for some compenstion tonight.
  • a 52nd minute Elazigspor separates these 2 sides in a match which ended with 2 late red cards. 
  • Not much else to research. This is a match of context. Galatasary need a 1-0 to continue the argument. Elazigspor need a 0-0 bare minimum and will tolerate a score draw.
  • Galatasary have not won in 3 now, and worryingly not scored in 2 matches. Is Drogba injured? Snjeider injured? Just a slump?
  • At home, though, Galatasary have scored 4-2-2-2 in their last 4 matches, all wins.
  • Elazigspor lost away to Galatasary in the league 2-0 as recently as 6th December 2013. IS this a template for tonight?
Profitable in play opportunities
  • a match to be taken into context. Interestingly, Galatasary at home are winning and scoring 2+ goals regularly, and indeed beat today's opponents 2-0 at home as recently as December 2013.
  • Worryingly, in their last 3 matches, Gala have only scored 1 goal.
  • Elazigspor are in decent form recently, but away they have not won in 4.
  • 1-0 minimum required by Galatasary, 0-0 from Elazigspor.
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6pm - Marseille v Valenciennes - 1.58 home
Standout stats

  • Historically this is a tight encounter, as there have been 3 score draws, a sudden Valenciennes 4-1 win, then a return to tight 1-0 wins home and away for Marseille in 2013. Not the scorelines of a 1.58 shot.
  • this is 9th v 18th. Will recent form supercede historical form?
MARSEILLE
  • have lost only 3 of their last 10, all defeats came without Marseille scoring.
  • If we take these 3 recent defeats out of the form, then Marseille scored 2-3-2-2-2-2.( the recent defeats were v 2nd, 3rd, and 7th
  • have failed to score in 5 this season, 4 of which ended with a defeat.
  • have kept only 1 clean sheet in their last 13 matches.
  • have had only 1 0-0 at halftime in 12 matches.
  • all 4 home defeats have come v 8th and above this season.Wins, scoring 2 in each match, at home came v 15th, 17th, and 19th.
  • 67% of home matches end over 2.5 goals.
  • have not had a 0-0 at halftime at home.
VALENCIENNES
  • only 4 defeats in their last 13 matches a stark contrast from early season with 1 win and 7 straight defeats. You feel this start to the season sees Valenciennes where they are now.
  • have scored and conceded in 11 of those 13 matches. 
  • their last away match was a 1-2 win against Monaco, as part of a now 3 match unbeaten run.
  • only kept 1 clean sheet this season, that was in the first match.
  • only failed to score in 2 of those 13 matches mentioned above.
  • have scored and conceded in all matches away to 7th and above, but failed to score against 10th, 12th and 13th
  • have conceded in their last 20 matches.
  • have only scored 2 first half goals away.
  • have not had a 0-0 this season.
Profitable in play opportunities
  • what's with that recent Valenciennes win against Monaco away? Surely a shot across the bows for a Marseille side who historically have tight tussles with today's opponents.
  • Both teams could score today. Or this will be a tight 1-0 as it has been in the last 2 meetings. 2-1 correct score covers both eventualities 
  • Marseille have not had a 0-0 at halftime at home. Something to exploit? Although Valenciennes have only scored 2 before halftime away.
  • I would not be a backer of Marseille at 1.58 today, based on Valenciennes recent form.
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6pm - Olympiakos v Atromitos - 1.28 home
Standout stats


  • this is the 2nd leg of a Greek cup match played on 12th January 2014. The scoreline there was 0-0.
  • the market expects home advantage to count today.
  • Prior to the 0-0, the last 2 scorelines between these 2 were 2-3 and 2-1 at Olympiakos.
Profitable in play opportunities
  • a match of conflicts with  the 0-0 last time out conflicting with the 2-3 and 2-1 of previous recent head to heads.
  • 1.28 suggests Olympiakos will score 2 at least. You might want to back 0-0 incase "tough-to-beat" Atromitos turn up
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7pm - Ath Bilbao v Atl Madrid - 2.48 away
Standout stats

  • this is a copa del rey match
  • it's 1-0 to Atl Madrid from the first leg.
  • Not a match I want to research or focus on.
  • the 2.48 suggests the market is open as to the outcome. This being a 2nd leg suggests teams will play in reaction to the first leg. This means another clean sheet for Atl Madrid and they are through. Ath Bilbao need to score 1 to nil, or more to go through. A draw of any kind suits Atl Madrid.



7pm - Stuttgart v B Munich - 1.29 away
Standout stats

  • Bayern have won the last 6 meetings scoring 2+ in each match
  • this is 12th v 1st. Bayern have a match and 10 points in hand over 2nd
STUTTGART
  • no draw in 9 matches but 7 defeats in those 9 matches.
  • have conceded 6-1-2-3-2-3-2 in their last 7 matches
  • have only kept 2 clean sheets this season
  • have failed to score in only 3 this season.
  • 6 of their last 7 matches have been over 2.5 goals
  • all defeats home and away have come v top 7 sides.
  • have lost at home to 2nd and 4th without scoring.
  • have conceded in their last 10 matches.
  • have conceded in all home matches.
  • have scored 8 of their 14 home goals in the first 1/2 hour
  • have only had 1 0-0 at halftime all season.
BAYERN MUNICH
  • have won all bar 2 1-1 draws
  • are on a 9 match winning streak and 4 match away winning streak,
  • have scored 2+ goals in their last 9 matches.
  • have kept 5 clean sheets in their last 6 matches.
  • have only had 1 0-0 at halftime in their last 10 matches.
  • Stuttgart are 12th. Bayern had problems v 13th away ( 1-2 win), 14th away ( 0-1) and 15th away ( 1-1). Symptomatic of problems v mid table away?
  • have only conceded 3 goals away
  • have only had 1 0-0 at halftime 
Profitable in play opportunities
  • lay the 0-0 halftime score.
  • Bayern are expected to score 2 goals at least .
  • Stuttgart tend to lose to nil to top 4 sides at home, and score in the rest of home matches.



745pm - Aston Villa v West Brom - 2.64 home

745pm - Celtic v Kilmarnock - 1.19 home
Standout stats

  • Celtic have scored 3-4-5 in the last 3 wins , where both teams scored in recent head to heads.
  • Celtic have convincingly won the last 3 meetings at Kilmarnock.
  • his is 1st v 8th in the SPL
CELTIC
  • the juggernaut rolls on. All wins this season bar 3 draws
  • 11 consecutive wins
  • 9 consecutive clean sheets
  • have scored 4-3-4 in the last 3 matches.
  • have kept clean sheets in the last 4 home wins.
  • have scored in all matches.
  • have only had 3 0-0's at halftime this season
KILMARNOCK
  • win sporadically,.
  • have only had 1 draw in 20 matches, care of a 90th minute equaliser in their last away match
  • Celtic have already beaten Kilmarnock 5-2 this season, ( 3-2 at halftime)
  • have had only 1 0-0 all season and just 2 0-0's at halftime away
Profitable in play opportunities
  • although long sequences will end, Celtic seem capable of another win to nil, and an opening gambit at 3-0 might pay off.
  • 0-0 halftime score lay might be good given Celtic's consistent scoring, although just 4 matches ago they went through a few 1-0 scorelines.
  • Kilmarnock tend to avoid draws, so lay any late draws.
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745pm - Chelsea v West Ham - 1.19 home
Standout stats

  • London derby - will West Ham surprise?
  • 3 clean sheets in 4 head to heads for Chelsea. Chelsea have won 3-0 and 2-0 in their last 2 home head to heads.
  • This is 3rd v 18th, or 3rd top v 3rd bottom. If Chelsea win by more than 1 this evening they go top. 
CHELSEA
  • only 3 defeats, all coming away.
  • are on a 5 match winning streak. 
  • have kept 4 clean sheets in their last 6 matches - the only teams to score being Manchester United and Liverpool.
  • have failed to score in only 4 .
  • have won all bar a 2-2 draw at home.
  • have scored 2 goals minimum in all bar 1 match this season.
  • have scored 13 first half and 12 second half goals at home.
  • have led at halftime in 7 of 11 home matches.
  • have only had 1 0-0 at halftime at home.
WEST HAM
  • have only won 2 of their last 15 matches and only 4 all season.
  • have scored and conceded in 5 of their last 6.
  • won their last away match 0-2 v Cardiff.
  • have not yet played top 3 away, but home and away have scored in 6 of 7 matches against top 7 sides. Yes, they failed to score in a 3-0 loss to Chelsea.
  • have scored in their last 6 matches overall.
  • have had 4 0-0's at halftime away.
Profitable in play opportunities
  • it is interesting that West Ham scored in all matches v top 7 bar a 3-0 loss to Chelsea.
  • Expect a near replication of that scoreline today.
  • If Chelsea have led at halftime in 7 of their 11 home matches, then they are more likely NOT to have a 0-0 at halftime, so lay the 0-0 halftime score.
  • Chelsea tend to score 2 goals at home, so expect at least that figure today.


745pm - Gent v Zulte-Waregem - 2.28 home

745pm - Hearts v St Mirren - 2.42 away

745pm - Napoli v Lazio - 1.57 home
Standout stats

  • Lazio have managed just one win in head to heads
  • this is a Coppa Italia match
NAPOLI
  • Napoli are unbeaten in 10.
  • Since January 2013, Napoli have only lost to 1 Italian team at home, Parma, 0-1.
  • have scored in their last 7 cup matches.
  • have only lost 1 match in 90 minutes at home in the cup since 2006
LAZIO
  • are unbeaten in 5 and recently kept Juventus to 1-1.
  • only 2 wins in 15 away matches.
  • Since August 2008 in the cup, only Fiorentina, Roma and Milan have beaten Lazio.
  • recent cup wins have come against Roma and Juventus
  • have scored and conceded in 6 of their last 7 away matches.
  • have only won 1 of their last 5 away matches
Profitable in play opportunities
  • not a match which is top of my list. Napoli's record at home is superb both overall and in the cup. Perhaps lay Lazio if Lazio score first. Do note that Lazio have beaten both Roma and Juventus in the cup, hence my hesitancy regarding 1.57 shots Napoli.


745pm - Sunderland v Stoke - 2.12 home

745pm - Tottenham v Man City - 1.99 away
Standout stats

  • Goals anyone? Total goals in recent head to heads of 6-5-3-4-6
  • Tottenham ( Spurs) won the last home head to head 3-1
  • this is 5th v 2nd. Man City go top with a win
SPURS
  • 5 wins in 6 now for Spurs and Tim Sherwood has made a great impact.
  • Spurs are scoring under Sherwood, scoring 3-1-3-2-2-3 since his arrival.
  •  consecutive clean sheets at home with wins against Stoke and Crystal Palace
  • have failed to score in only 1 of their last 10.
  • perhaps markedly, 4 of their 5 defeats have come against top 8 sides
  • no wins at home yet against top 8.
  • only 1 0-0 this season.
  • have only had 1 0-0 at halftime under Sherwood.
MAN CITY
  • 4 defeats for Man City all came away from home. 
  • since their last defeat, City have won 10 of 11 matches.
  • have scored 2+ goals in 9 of their last 11 matches.
  • have only failed to score in 2 this season.
Profitable in play opportunities
  • head to heads, and indeed Sherwood's Spurs scoring and City's scoring suggests goals. If we take an average of the last 5 head to heads, we reach nearly the 5 goal a game marker. This may be an angle in today, over 4.5 goals. Delay a bit incase it's 0-0 for a while.
  • there has only been 1 0-0 at halftime under Sherwood and his attacking flair might help a 0-0 halftime score lay.
  • both teams to score looks like having a chance



9pm - Barcelona v Levante - 1.1 home

 Standout stats





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