745pm - Birmingham v Leicester - 1.97 away
745pm - Brentford v Bristol City - 1.65 home
745pm - Derby v Yeovil - 1.49 home
745pm - Lokeren v Oostende - 1.48 home
Standout stats
- this is a belgian cup match.
- these are both pro league sides. I am not even going to venture an opinion.
745pm - Man Utd v Cardiff - 1.26 home
Standout stats
- Cardiff stole a 2-2 draw with a 90th minute equaliser the last time these 2 teams met.
- United have recently signed Mata, and may have Rooney and Van Persie back. A turnaround in home fortunes?
- this is 7th v 20th ( bottom)
MAN UTD
- 3 defeats in 5 home matches is unprecedented.
- no draws in 9 matches.
- have failed to score in 4 this season, 3 matches were at home ( 0-0, 0-1 , 0-1)
- are comfortable against 14th and below at home, winning all 4 matches played , scoring 2+ goals on each occasion.
- home and away against 14th and below, United have scored 2+ goals in ALL matches .
- have scored and conceded in 4 matches home and away against bottom 4 sides.
- have scored first in only 5 of 11 home matches, unheard of under Ferguson.
- have only led at halftime in 4 of 11 home matches.
- only 1 0-0 at fulltime this season, but 5 halftime 0-0's at home.
CARDIFF
- have only 1 win in 12 matches ( 8 defeats in those 12).
- have failed to score in 3 of their last 5 matches.
- have conceded 3-3-2-2-2-4 in their last 6 matches.
- have lost away to 1st, 2nd , 3rd, 4th but not played 5th-9th inclusive yet.
- have conceded 6 in the last 1/4 hour of away 1st half, and 9 in the last 1/4 hour of the 2nd half away.
Profitable in play opportunities
- the number 2 seems to resonate. Cardiff concede 2+ in their last 6 matches and Manchester United score 2+ regularly against 14th and below. This is our expectation for this match.
- Logic suggests a 0-0 halftime score lay ( but the stats are less welcoming). Do note team news today, particularly for United. If we see Rooney, Van Persie and Mata , then we may be on for a 0-0 halftime score lay ( although I think I'd be happier seeing Danny Welbeck in there as the recent United resurgence coincided with his re-instatement).
- Cardiff City have goals in them, 2 against Man United previously, and 2 recently away to Manchester City. With United scoring first in only 4 of 11 home matches, a hope therefore that Cardiff can score first for a welcome DRT
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745pm - Norwich v Newcastle - 2.54 away
Standout stats
- Newcastle are unbeaten in 4 in the Premiership, winning 2 at home 1-0, a 0-0 away draw and a 2-1 home win latest.
- this is 12th v 8th
NORWICH
- have only 1 win in their last 7.
- have 2 ways of playing top 11. They lost 1-3 to Chelsea and drew 2-2 with Everton. Then we have a cluster of 1-0 ( win v Saints), 0-1 loss to Villa and 1-0 win over Hull. In which category will Newcastle fall?
- all bar one of Norwich's defeats has come against teams above them
- have scored first in only 5 of 11 home matches.
- have had 5 home 0-0's at halftime
NEWCASTLE
- have lost 3 of their last 4 , albeit 2 were against Manchester City and Arsenal.
- have won 4 of their last 6 away matches.
- have only had 3 draws all season
- have not had an away draw.
- have scored first in only 6 of their 11 away matches
- Remy and Cabaye are the key goalscorers away with 5 each.
Profitable in play opportunities
- Newcastle were a tasty price in their last Premiership match. They could be the same again today. Clearly a side in better form, they have ended a run of 3 without scoring, by scoring 3 against West Ham.
- Newcastle tend to avoid the draw, so that could be a good angle in.
- Either team could score first today, hope it is Norwich to allow a possible DRT.
- Newcastle have shown good recent away form and Norwich's losses are generally against teams above them in the league.
- 5 0-0's at halftime for Norwich means I am not interested in the 0-0 halftime score lay.
745pm - QPR v Bolton - 1.67 home
Standout stats
- Although I hate lower league matches for their inconsistency, I have followed QPR this season.
- QPR won 0-1 at the start of the season in head to heads
- this is 2nd v 18th and a must win for QPR if they want to catch Leicester
QPR
- no match for 10 days sees QPR more rested.
- only 4 defeats all season, 3 came away
- only lost to 1st in the league at home, a 1-0.
- have won their last 2 home matches 2-1
- 3 of 4 defeats this season came against top 5 opponents
- 6 wins out of 6 against teams 16th and below at home.
- noone has scored more than 1 goal against QPR at home.
- have conceded only 1 2nd half goal at home , scoring 11.
- C Austin must play if you fancy QPR. He has scored 9 home goals this season.
- have had 6 0-0's at halftime at home
BOLTON
- only 2 wins in their last 10.
- have conceded 3-0-5-7 in their last 4 away matches.
- have only failed to score in 2 of their last 16 .
- both teams have scored in 6 of the last 7
- Bolton have not won a match home or away against top 13 sides.
- have scored and conceded in 5 out of 6 away matches against top 9 sides.
Profitable in play opportunities
- both teams perform distinctly against certain parts of the league. i.e. Bolton have not won home or away against top 13 sides, and QPR have won 6 out of 6 home matches against 16th and below.
- Bolton have conceded 12 goals in their last 2 away matches. Now this goes one of 2 ways. 1) it shows a big problem in defence and another hiding is on the cards ( in which case the QPR odds would be a lot shorter) or 2) we see a defensive reaction from Bolton today.
- if Bolton score first, lay them as QPR don't tend to concede 2 goals in a match at home.
- not sure of a clean sheet today as Bolton have scored in 2 of their last 16 and scored in those heavy recent defeats too.
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745pm - Southampton v Arsenal - 2.06 away
Standout stats
- this is probably not a good DRT match, but I feel obligated to research it as it is Premiership match.
- there's only 1 home head to head of relevance, a 1-1 when Arsenal last visited last year. Arsenal at home are a lot more ruthless scoring 6 and 2 in 2 wins at the Emirates.
- this is 9th v 1st, but a 20 point gap is significant.
SOUTHAMPTON
- have almost exclusively played the top 10 recently, and lost more than they won and drew. The last 2 matches, though have been against West Brom and Sunderland and see 2 positives, a win and a draw. I am afraid it looks as if Saints might be returning to losing days today.
- Recent losses have come against Arsenal, Chelsea, Aston Villa, Tottenham, Everton and Chelsea again. Almost exclusively top 10 as I say.
- As a consequence Saints have won only 1 of their last 5 home matches.
- have only failed to score in 4 this season.
- have kept only 2 clean sheets in 14 matches.
- have only won 1 match home and away against teams above them.
- have a tendency towards conceding 2/3 at their worst home and away against top 5 sides.
- have scored first in only 6 of 11 home matches ( nearly half).
- have only had 1 0-0 this season and 4 0-0's at halftime time at home.
ARSENAL
- have only lost 3 this season, 1 an aberration against Aston Villa, the other 2 against the 2 Manchester Clubs.
- have won 4 of their last 5 away matches.
- have scored 3 -1-2-2-2 in their last 5 matches.
- have failed to score in only 2 this season.
- have kept 4 clean sheets in their last 6 matches.
- have beaten 8th and 10th away and play 9th today.
- outside the top 6, Arsenal have not conceded more than 1 goal away.
- have scored 7 1st half goals away but 16 2nd half goals away.
- have only had 1 0-0 this season and 4 0-0's at halftime away.
Profitable in-play opportunities.
- Arsenal have only played 3 away matches against top 10, 2 losses to the Manchesters and a 1-0 win over Newcastle. It is hard to gauge how a team who usually falter against the best season after season, will perform against a top 10 side today.
- looking at the stats though, Southampton's recent rocky period was against top 10 sides, and I think it may continue tonight against an Arsenal scoring 3-1-2-2-2 in their last 5 matches.
- Saints have a tendency to concede 2/3 against top 5 sides at their worst.
- halftime score stats are a bit shaky, both sides have had 4 0-0's at halftime. This match should not end 0-0 and there has been a strong habit from Arsenal of scoring at least 2 goals late on, so if this is 0-0 coming into the 65th minute, lay the 0-0.
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745pm - Swansea v Fulham - 1.75 home
Standout stats
- these are 2 of the lesser lights in the Premiership and would not excite me from a DRT perspective.
- Since 2012, Swansea have won 3 away head to heads and were beaten 0-3 when Fulham visited. Fulham now have a new manager, but that hasn't stopped the odds on quote for Swansea
SWANSEA
- no win in 8.
- have lost 5 of their last 6 matches.
- have only kept 1 clean sheet in 13 matches.
- all bar one of their defeats this season home and away has come against top 9 sides. Perhaps that is telling and suggests outside the top 10 could be an easier assignment.
- that said, 3 draws at home v 11th, 14th and 18th.
- have beaten Fulham 1-2 this season already.
- have conceded in their last 8 matches.
- 82% of home matches have been over 2.5 goals.
- have scored 16 of their 19 home goals in the 2nd half.
- have only scored first in 3 of 11 home matches, but do note the number of top 9 teams they have played.
- have only had 1 0-0 this season but 4 halftime 0-0's at home.
FULHAM
- have only had one draw all season, and no draw in 18 matches, and 11 away matches.
- have only kept 3 clean sheets this season
- have had 11 over 2.5 goals matches in their last 13.
- all bar 1 away defeat has come against top 11 sides. Fulham have beaten 12th, 16th and 19th away and play 15th today.
- have conceded in their last 10 away matches.
- have conceded 18 of their 26 away goals in the 2nd half.
- have scored first in only 1 of 11 away matches.
- have not had a 0-0 this season but had 6 halftime 0-0's away.
Profitable in play opportunities
- Swansea have been playing top 9 of late and losing, so their recent form must be put into context. This could present an easier task today, although in not losing against other than top 9, Swans tend to draw.
- Prepare for 2nd half action if this is 0-0 at halftime , as it could be. These 2 sides score and concede in the 2nd half.
- There has been a strong over 2.5 goals trend for Swansea at home and Fulham in overall matches recently.
- Fulham have performed better away against teams 11th and lower.
745pm - Wrexham v Tamworth - 1.63 home
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8pm - C Palace v Hull - 2.58 home
Standout stats
- another unappealing DRT trading medium, based on the 2.58 quote, but with a Tony Pulis side, you get an element of readability.
- there's only 1 head to head of relevance, a 0-1 Palace away win.
- this is 16th v 11th and Tony Pulis is dragging Palace away from the relegation zone with some effect.
CRYSTAL PALACE
- Palace have to be viewed in isolation under Tony Pulis. Since Tony Pulis, Palace have had 7 under 1.5 goals matches.
- have only lost 1 of their last 6 home matches.
- 4 of 5 losses under Pulis came against top 8 sides.
- Palace have had 4 0-0's at halftime in their last 5 matches.
- have won 4 of their 5 winning matches under Pulis 1-0.
- have only had 6 over 2.5 goals matches all season.
- 3 of 4 home wins came against bottom 3.
HULL CITY
- have lost 4 of their last 5 matches, but played Man Utd, Liverpool, Chelsea in 3 of those .
- have failed to score in their last 3 matches.
- have had a tough away fixture list, playing 8 of the top 9.
- have drawn 1-1 against 13th and 15th away.
- have conceded in their last 11 matches away
- have conceded 10 away goals in each half.
Profitable in play opportunities
- any look at this match must acknowledge that Hull have pretty much been playing top 10 sides away. Hence their poor away record. They may fare better today against fellow minnows.
- when not playing top 10 themselves, Palace tend towards under 1.5 goals matches. If winning, they are likely to get a 1-0.
- As with a Pulis side, backing 0-0 pre-match might be a good option given the defensive solidity of Crystal palace, and Hull's inability to score in their last 3 matches.
8pm - Liverpool v Everton - 1.88 home
Standout stats
- I'm not going to research this match as it is a local derby and these matches are to be treated in isolation as they are unique and don't tend to go with the stats. I certainly would not have Everton as outsiders here against a Liverpool side whose odds on quote looks far too short.
- A 3-3 result last time is evidence of my conclusion above!
8pm - Real Madrid v Espanyol - 1.11 home
Standout stats
- This is the copa del rey 2nd round and it's 0-1 for Real Madrid, 2 consecutive 0-1 wins now for Real.
- We have a sudden shortening of the odds now they are at home. Real need a 0-0 to go through or a score draw. Espanyol need a 0-1 to get back on parity . Not much else to relate apart from the usual - 1.11 shots equal 3/4 goals minimum and a possible win to nil
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