We spoke in the live chat last night about DRT LITE, that is a stripped down version of DRT where our focus is narrowed only to the premium sides, who are very shortly priced and whose form suggests an easy night. Last night's DRT lite teams included Panathanaikos, Chelsea, Celtic, Barcelona, Bayern Munich. Of these, Panathanaikos's match was 0-0 at halftime time and they scored 3 goals in the 2nd half; Chelsea we layed the draw at 1.07 at 0-0 and it did not oblige, Celtic were simply too efficient; Barcelona conceded first and were backable at 1.5, a gift for a 1.11 shot ( they won 5-1) , and Bayern Munich, well we know about them, a 93rd minute winner.
I'll point out the DRT lite matches today and it looks as if the PAOK match might fall into that category now PAOK are scoring goals again.
6pm - PAOK v Apollon Smirnis - 1.18 home
Standout stats
- this is the only leg of a Greek Cup match
PAOK
- have only lost 2 matches since September 2013 in all competitions.
- have won 6 of their last 7 matches
- have 13 wins in 15 matches at home
- have won their last 4 cup matches, 3 with clean sheets
- have won their last 6 home cup matches.
- have lost only 1 home cup match since 2004.
APOLLON SMIRNIS
- only 4 wins in 14 in all competitions for this Super league side.
- as recently as December 2013, they held PAOK to a 0-0 away.
- this is part of a run of 11 without a win in 12 away matches.
- have scored and conceded in 5 of the last 6 cup matches.
- have not won an away cup match, albeit only 5. 3 defeats in 4 away cup matches.
Profitable in play opportunities
- you might want to take out a 0-0 pre match insurance given the 0-0 gremlins which tend to appear at times in Greece. Indeed this was the scoreline the last time these 2 met when PAOK were at home.
- 1.18 as you know by now suggests 3/4 goals for PAOK and a possible win to nil. They are strong at home so a victory is expected.
- that 0-0 pre match back will alleviate any concerns if no goals appear.
- Smirmis are poor away so if they score first, they are opposable.
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745pm - Nottm Forest v Watford - 2.04 home
Standout stats
- in a quiet day, I'll venture into the Championship
- Forest seem to struggle against Watford. Since 2012, Draw, Watford win, Watford win, Draw in the 4 head to heads sees Watford as a potential bogey team.
- Forest are 5th and 11points shy of 2nd place. Touch and go whether they can get into the play-offs. Watford are 16th and only 7 points above the relegation zone.
NOTTM FOREST
- have lost only 4 all season
- are unbeaten in 9 albeit 5 of those were draws.
- have scored and conceded in the last 4 matches.
- have won the last 3 home matches scoring 2-2-4.
- have failed to score in only 3 this season
- in a small sample of teams 16th and below, Forest have scored 3 in 2 matches v 18th and 23rd at home.
- have had 3 0-0's at halftime in 13 home matches
WATFORD
- only 1 win in 14
- 5 draws in their last 8 matches, that Forest draw-itis is catching.
- 6 consecutive away draws, 5 of them were score draws.
- have failed to score in 6 of the last 10 matches.
- have kept only 5 clean sheets , the last 2 were at home.
- have drawn all away matches scored v top 8
- have not won in 6 away, but are undefeated in 7 away
- both sides have pretty much led at halftime in 1/2 of their home/away matches.
- Deeney a key Watford away player. 7 of his 11 goals are scored away.
Profitable in play opportunities
- Watford are unbeaten in 3 head to heads, and like Forest , are haemorrhaging points because of so many draws.
- A 6 match draw sequence away for Watford must end at some stage. Take a chance of it ending tonight? With Forest winning their last 3 home matches, you'd hope that a lay the draw could be a good trade, particularly if it's a late draw.
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8pm - Racing Santander v Sociedad - 1.71 away
Standout stats
- this is a copa del rey match where Sociedad hold a 3-1 lead from the first leg.
- As ever, it is context rather than research which will determine any angles in ( if any!).
- Santander need 2 goals to gain parity and have the advantage of an away goal, if that counts. Sociedad make Santander's task difficult by scoring an away goal themselves. You feel if Sociedad score, then it'll be "down tools" time for Santander.
- Sociedad play Atl Madrid at the weekend and may rest a few players as Barcelona did last night. Team news is therefore key. Will Sociedad mirror Barcelona in winning as well?
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