Wednesday, 22 January 2014

Do read the reviews as they compare what happened in matches with the killer stats and profitable in play opportunities.
The key components of every match are the times in which the first and  last goals are scored, and I record them there for you. These reviews are a good learning tool.

On to today. There are certainly some interesting matches, but there seems to be a "cup" bent to the coupon today.

3pm - PAOK v Iraklis Thessaloniki - 1.19 home

Standout stats

  • Twice this season have PAOK let down DRT traders. They did it again on Saturday with a 2-0 defeat away to Panionis despite the stats pointing to a strong PAOK display. They are , therefore, a team to tread warily with from a DRT perspective.
  • This is a Greek Cup match and seems to be a 2nd leg match between PAOK ( Super League) and Iraklis( Football league).
  • This looks to be a Thessolonikan derby match, and PAOK lead 0-1 from the first leg.
  • This match is not worth researching again as it is a 2nd leg and the facts are clear cut. PAOK need a 0-0 to go through. Iraklis need a 0-1 to retain an interest in the match. Should PAOK score today, you feel the tie will be over.
  • I would be tempted at backing the 0-0 pre-match here for a non-too-confident interest in the match. Iraklis in their league are good at keeping clean sheets, and since PAOK last met Iraklis, PAOK have scored only 1 goal in 2 matches.
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5pm - Elazigspor v Galatasaray - 1.52 away

Standout stats
  • This is a turkish cup match between 2 Super Lig sides and is the 1st of a 2 legged affair.
  • There have only been 3 head to heads since 2012, all won by Galatasary.
  • Galatasary are unbeaten in their last 11 matches in all competitions , winning 7 of them.
  • A 5 match winning run for Galatasary ended with a draw last time out.
  • Galatasary have only won 1 of their last 7 away matches, but are unbeaten in their last 4 aways ( 3 score draws). 
  • Galatasary have lost 3 of their last 15 cup matches. 
  • Galatasary have won only 2 of their last 16 away matches in the cup so it seems it is not a tournament they prioritise.
  • 4 draws in their last 6 matches for Galatasary too.
  • Elazigspor have only won 3 of their last 12 in all competitions, and as recently as December, lost 2-0 to Galatasary.
  • It's tough to decipher Elazigspor's cup form as the teams they have beaten are lower league sides and unknown to me.
Profitable in play opportunities
  • This is the first of 2 legs and would be better served as a watching brief for betting angles for the 2ndleg.
  • What is noticeable is Galatasary's appalling away form in this competition. They have won only 2 of their last 16 away matches in the cup and only won 1 of their last 7 away matches.
  • Galatasary are unbeaten in 11 matches though which must count for something. 
  • Value seekers I suppose might want to lay Galatasary at 1.52 given their appalling cup record away.
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545pm - Zwolle v JVC Cuijk - 1.15 home

Standout stats
  • You know the drill. 1.15 should signal a 3/4 goal win and a possible win to nil. I won't be researching this Dutch cup match because Cujik are an absolute unknown to me. 
  • This is a match where you either have faith in the 1.15 odds producing goals, or you leave this match alone. It is likely to be very illiquid on Betfair too.
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6pm - Asteras Tripolis v Olympiakos - 1.68 away

Standout stats

  • This will be short and sweet. Olympiakos lead 4-0 from the first leg of this Greek cup match , so need a 0-0 to 0-3 defeat and they are still going through. 
  • It is a totally unappealing betting medium given this match is pretty much an "avoid a 5-0 defeat" match for Olympiakos.

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6pm - Yzeure v Lyon - 1.26 away

Standout stats
  • This Coupe de France match is unreadable. I know nothing off Yzeure from the French CFA league.
  • Team news vital for Lyon. My knee jerk reaction is that 1.26 looks a whopping price if a first team Lyon play 
  • Lyon are unbeaten in the Coupe de france, so says www.soccerway.com, and have given teams recent 0-4 and 1-6 thrashings. 
  • Speculators might want to chance over 4.5 goals if the odds are big enough, and especially if the match is 0-0 for a while.
  • Yzeure were recently beaten 2-1 by Lyon II, an offshoot of the main Lyon team, so Lyon should have an angle into this match. 
  • Lyon have scored 2+ with regularity recently so expect that to be replicated at the bare minimum.

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7pm - Sociedad v Racing Santander - 1.25 home

Standout stats

  • This is the first leg of a Copa del rey double header.
  • Sociedad are unbeaten in home head to heads, without conceding in 3.
  • Racing have only won 1 of the last 5 head to heads.
  • Sociedad have only lost 1 of their last 8.
  • Sociedad are very strong at home. They have only lost 3 of their last 32 home matches, 2 of those were in the Champions League and the other against Ath Madrid.
  • Sociedad are unbeaten in their last 5 Copa matches, keeping clean sheets in their last 3. 
  • Sociedad are unbeaten at home in the cup since 2011
  • Santander are a Segunda B side who have not lost in 9 matches, keeping clean sheets in 6 of those matches. This is an obvious step up.
  • 5 consecutive clean sheets away from home suggests a certain tactic away from home for Santander. As part of that run, they beat Sevilla 0-2.
  • Santander have only lost 1 of their last 9 in the Copa del rey, a 1-0 loss to the Sevilla team they beat 2-0 in another leg.
Profitable in play opportunities
  • It's always tough to weigh up an inform team, who are strong outsiders, from a lower division. How do we compare their opponents to Sociedad in the Primera division?
  • This is the first leg remember so all is not lost should either side lose.
  • Sociedad's home form is spectacular, and suggests they are unlikely to lose. Santander are on a run of 5 aways without conceding, albeit they have played mostly Segunda B sides .


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745pm - Ajax v Feyenoord - 1.81 home

Standout stats

  • A 1-0 win over PSV at the weekend on a comeback from the winter break is a good pipe opener for Ajax. Feyenoord flexed their muscles too, scoring 5.
  • This is a dutch cup encounter
  • Ajax have lost only 1 of the last 6 head to heads, winning the last 2 and scoring 2-2-3-2 in the last 4 meetings.
  • Ajax have lost only 1 of their last 12 matches and that was in a friendly in the winter break against Galatasary.
  • Ajax have lost only 1 of their last 21 home matches in all competitions.
  • Ajax have won their last 5 home matches, keeping clean sheets in 4 of them.
  • Like AZ yesterday, are Ajax "up for the cup"?
  • Ajax have suffered only 2 defeats in 90 minutes in their last 26 cup matches, and guess who beat them? AZ! I think we can safely say that Ajax like a cup run.
  • Since 2005 only AZ have beaten Ajax in the cup at home. Apart from those 2 losses to AZ, Ajax won all of their home cup matches either in 90 minutes or extra time( only 3 matches).
  • Only 1 defeat in 8 for Feyenoord was in a friendly v Basel during the winter break.
  • Feyenoord have only lost 1 of their last 7 cup matches in 90 minutes. 3 of those matches were taken to extra time.
  • Feyenoord have had trouble winning away cup matches of late. Their recent record reads LLW(extra time)WW(extra time)LW(extra time) ( Where W=Win, L=Loss). Those wins in extra time, are, of course, draws after 90 minutes.
Profitable in play opportunities.
  • Advantage Ajax I would say here given their exemplary home record in the cup. Beware Feyenoord's ability to draw cup matches away but not necessarily win. Should Feyenoord take the lead therefore I think they can be layed.

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745pm - Man Utd v Sunderland - 1.35 home

Standout stats
  • Sunderland's recent form looks like it should belong to Man Utd's and  vice versa.
  • The bookmaker's got the market right for Man Utd away to Chelsea. Have they got it right tonight for the 2nd leg of the League Cup?
  • United have not had a draw in 13 and have not lost 4 of their last 5 matches, always scoring in defeat.
  • One of those 2-1 defeats was of course away at Sunderland.
  • United have not had a draw in 11 home matches in all competitions.
  • United have lost 4 of their last 7 home matches.
  • 3 clean sheets in 4 matches for United under Moyes in the league cup. The aberration is the 2-1 loss mentioned earlier.
  • United have not been beaten at home in 13 home cup matches.
  • Sunderland have only lost 1 of their last 10 matches, and that was a gift of a goal to Aston Villa. Are Sunderland being too readily dismissed here?
  • Sunderland are unbeaten in 5 away matches.
  • Sunderland are unbeaten in 2013 League cup matches and have beaten Southampton, Chelsea (AET) and Manchester United in their last 3 matches. Certainly, "up for the cup".
  • Sunderland are unbeaten in their last 4 away League cup matches, albeit spread over 6 years.
Profitable in play opportunities
  • MATCH ODDS - avoid the draw? It seems to avoid Man Utd of late at home and overall. 
  • Man Utd must get a 1-0 scoreline to start with here to gain parity with Sunderland.
  • Sunderland have only lost one of their last 10 matches, is this indicative of a lay of Manchester United at valueless 1.35 odds?

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755pm - Paris St-G v Montpellier - 1.22 home

Standout stats

  • PSG are obligatory favourites in most matches now, and who can blame the market, with Cavani and Ibrahimovic the difference time and again.
  • This is a Coupe de france match between 2 Ligue 1 teams.
  • The last 3 head to heads have been 1-1, 1-0 PSG win, 1-1, so if you were making a call based solely on head to heads, then lay PSG
  • Since August 2013, only Evian, Benfica and Real Madrid have beaten PSG. An exclusive bunch!
  • Since November 2012, only Real Madrid have beaten PSG at home and those matches ( 2) were 0-1.
  • PSG have lost only 2 matches in the Coupe de france in 90 minutes since February 2008. They seem "up for the cup".
  • Since 2005, only 2 teams have beaten PSG at home in the cup ( 2011 and 2012 matches).
  • Montpellier have only won 3 of their last 20 matches in all competitions ( but they did have 11 draws!)
  • Only 2 wins away in 13 for Montpellier, came in their last 2 matches, and part of a sequence of 3 away clean sheets. Goodluck if Ibrahimovic and Cavani are playing!
  • Reasonable form for Montpellier in the Coupe de France but noticeable that the wins are largely against lower league teams.
  • 5 wins in 6 aways in the cup for Montpellier but against the likes of Bourg-Peronnas and Rodez. ( Who are they? - - exactly!!)
Profitable in play opportunities
  • I mainly do cup research to check if teams are " up for the cup" and indeed it looks as if PSG are . Let that be your cue this evening. 
  • Do note that the head to heads are really tight recently, 2 1-1's and a 1-0. You need to gauge whether it is these head to heads which will point to the match or not. In any case, Montpellier should not win, but could draw given they have drawn 11 of their last 20 matches and 3 of their last 4 head to head with PSG.

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9pm - Levante v Barcelona - 1.21 away

Standout stats
  • This is the 1st leg of a 2 legged Copa del rey match.
  • I'm not going to research too much into this match as I did so for the recent league match on 19th January, so do please head on over to the DRT bulletin on the 19th January 2014.
  • That meeting ended 1-1 after levante took the lead. I can only hope Levante score again! 
  • Being a first legged affair, it is not a match which greatly appeals , suffice to say we might be another defensive Levante display?

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