17th January 2014

SUNDAY

130pm - KV Mechelen v Anderlecht - 1.78 away
Standout stats

• 
  

130pm - Swansea v Tottenham - 2.44 away
Standout stats

• Tottenham are unbeaten in the last 6 head to heads, winning the last 4. At Swansea,the score has been 1-1 and 1-2 so both teams have scored. 
• This is 14th v 6th. With Liverpool dropping points unexpectedly yesterday, this is a perfect opportunity for Spurs to go 4th.
• Swansea don't have a win in 7 matches.They have lost 4 of their last 5 matches and looking at the league table it is clear where their weaknesses lie.
• Swansea have lost all bar 1 match against the top 9 teams.
• Against top 7 at home, both teams have scored and Swansea have lost 4 and drawn 1 2-2.
• Swansea have only 1 win in 5 home matches.
• Swansea have only 1 clean sheet in 12 matches.
• Swansea have scored in their last 5 home matches and conceded in their last 7 matches overall.
• Swansea are a 2nd half goals team. They have scored 3 first half at home, and 15 2nd half at home.
• Swansea have only had 1 0-0 this season.
• Tottenham have lost only 1 of their last 9 matches 
• In their 6 wins in their last 8 matches, Tottenham have scored at least 2 goals.
• Tottenham have won their last 4 away matches, with both teams scoring.
• Tottenham have only lost to 1st and 2nd away.
• Tottenham have had only 1 0-0 this season.

Profitable in play opportunities

• Match Odds - Lay Swansea if Swansea score first. There are goals in this Spurs side. 2.44 looks a big price ( rather like Newcastle were yesterday). 
• Halftime - Swansea score the vast majority of their goals 2nd half so Tottenham are probably favourites to score if there is a first half goal.
• Halftime score - 0-0 halftime score has come up for both teams on 4 occasions home and away,
• Correct score - expect both teams to score.
• Over/Under 2.5 goals - looking at Tottenham away, they tend to score and concede which naturally includes over 2.5 goals.

2pm - Bologna v Napoli - 1.71 away
Standout stats

• Napoli have won the 2 2013 head to heads, scoring 3 on each occasion without conceding.
• This is 18th v 3rd
• Only 3 wins for Bologna this season ( all to nil and 2 1-0's)
• 2 consecutive home clean sheets now for Bologna.
• 3 defeats and a draw against top 10 at home for Bologna
• Bologna have not won any matches home or away v top 9.
• Bologna have failed to score in 4 of their last 5.
• Bologna have had only 1 over 2.5 goal match in their last 7.
• Napoli have lost only 3 all season, 2 were away to 1st and 2nd.
• Napoli tend to win away , scoring 2 minimum.
• Napoli have failed to score in only 3 all season, and they ended in defeat.
• No 0-0's therefore for Napoli.
• Napoli have had only 2 halftime 0-0's in their last 16 matches.
• Napoli have had no 0-0's at halftime away.

Profitable in play opportunities

• MATCH ODDS - with a suggestion that Napoli could score 2 away , back Napoli if they concede first. Lay the late draw if 0-0. Bologna should not win so any suggestion they may win can be layed.
• HALFTIME SCORE - Lay the 0-0 halftime score late and low. It tends to come in more often than not for Napoli. But do note Bologna have failed to score in 4 of their last 5 matches so we may be reliant on only 1 team for a goal.
• CORRECT SCORE - a late 0-0 will be an anomoly . Lay it late and low.

2pm - Catania v Fiorentina - 2.1 away
Standout stats

• Catania are unbeaten in the last 3 home head to heads. 
• Fiorentina have the services of Anderson, if they can keep him out of the local delicatessen.
• The head to heads favour the home side historically
• This is 20th v 4th so intriguing to see such a big price for the away side.
• Catania have kept 6 clean sheets in 9 home matches, but are yet to play top 4 sides at home.
• All 3 wins for Catania this season came at home.
• All Catania's wins have come against 15th and under.
• Only 4 defeats this season for Fiorentina , 3 came away.
• Fiorentina have kept 4 consecutive clean sheets.
• Fiorentina have kept 4 clean sheets in 5 matches home and away v bottom 5 sides.

Profitable in play opportunities

• MATCH ODDS - a big price for Fiorentina in 4th place. Catania should not win.
• CORRECT SCORE - a speculative pre-match 0-0 back might pay off given the clean sheets Catania have had at home ( yes, but not played top 4 at home yet), and Fiorentina's 4 clean sheets.

2pm - Genoa v Inter - 2.06 away
Standout stats

• Inter are unbeaten in the last 7 head to heads, winning 5. They have drawn 2 of the last 3.
• Inter have kept 2 consecutive clean sheets in the last 2 head to heads.
• Genoa's last 4 defeats have all come away.
• Genoa have scored in their last 6 home matches 
• Genoa's only 2 defeats at home were v 3rd and 4th, and they play 5th today.
• Genoa have had only 1 0-0 all season
• Inter Milan have lost their last 2 away matches. What chances a 3rd consecutive away defeat?
• Inter have won only 1 of their last 7 matches overall.4 score draws the cause.
• All away wins for Inter have come against 15th and lower.
• Inter have beaten Genoa 2-0 at home this season.
• Inter have only failed to score in 2 matches.
• Inter have not had a 0-0 this season and only 2 away 0-0's at halftime.

Profitable in play opportunities

• MATCH ODDS - this is a match where you either believe Inter will end a 2 match away losing run  , or you think Inter might be vulnerable ( only 1 win in 7). I would go for the former and lay Genoa if Genoa are leading. Genoa have lost to 3rd and 4th at home and are playing 5th today.
• CORRECT SCORE - score draws appear with Inter away, perhaps an opening gambit on 1-1? Both teams have the ability to score. Lay the late 0-0. Inter have failed to score only twice.
• HALFTIME SCORE - no real confidence for me in the 0-0 halftime score lay.

315pm - PAS Giannina v AEL Kalloni - 1.5 home
Standout stats

• 
  

330pm - Ajax v PSV - 1.67 home
Standout stats

• Generally advantage home side bar one of the last 6 head to heads where Ajax won 2-3 at PSV in April 2013.
• Both sides have scored in 3 of the last 4 head to heads.
• This is 3rd v 8th.Ajax could go top with a win. 
• Ajax have lost only 3 all season, 1 was a 4-0 loss to PSV.
• Ajax have won their last 6 matches, all over 2.5 goals. 
• Ajax have only failed to score in 2 matches.
• At home, Ajax have only lost to 1st in the league. 6 of their other 8 home matches had clean sheets.
• Ajax are most vulnerable to top 8 sides, home and away, 1 win, 3 losses and 3 draws
• Ajax have conceded only 3 at home , scoring 23.
• Ajax have only 1 0-0 this season and have not had a halftime 0-0 in their last 6 matches.
• PSV lost 5 consecutive away matches until their last away, a 1-5 win over Utrecht.
• PSV have failed to score in only 2 this season.
• PSV have scored and conceded in 9 of their last 11.
• PSV away are vulnerable against teams above them. They have drawn 2nd, lost to 4th, 6th and 7th.
• In 8 of PSV's 9 away matches, they have scored and conceded.
• PSV have scored in their last 8 overall.
• PSV have only had 1 0-0 at halftime away from home.

Profitable in play opportunities

• Match Odds - if any team leads 2-0 , lay them. Both teams should score today.
• Halftime - with the possibility of goals, lay the draw for halftime if a late draw
• Halftime score - Lay the 0-0 halftime score. PSV have only had 1 0-0 at halftime.
• Correct score - hard to nail. We expect both teams to score, but Ajax have been really strong defensively.
• Over 2.5 goals.  - has come in on Ajax's last 6 matches and note PSV have scored and conceded in all bar 1 away match.

4pm - Chelsea v Man Utd - 1.76 home

• Head to heads are irrelevant really given Man Utd's huge managerial switch.
• This is a toughie to call given the inconsistencies of Man Utd, so play it by gut instinct rather than stats I feel.

4pm - Toulouse v Monaco - 2.08 away
Standout stats

• Monaco have not scored against Toulouse in the last 4 head to heads, and the last 3 head to heads at Toulouse.
• 
  

4pm - Villarreal v Almeria - 1.37 home
Standout stats

• the last 5 head to heads have been tight, either 1-0 or one-goal-in-it.
• there is only 1 Primera division match of interest, a 2-3 away win for Villareal care of late 84th and 86th minute goals.
• This is 5th v 17th. 
• Villareal are top 4 with a win today.
• Villareal have scored and conceded in 6 of their last 7 matches.
• Villareal have failed to score in only 1 home match.
• Villareal have scored and conceded in 8 of their last 10 home matches.
• Villareal have not had a home 0-0 at halftime, and only 2 all season.
• It's a season of 2 halves for Almeria. They could not win a match until 27th October 2013. After then , they won 3 on the bounce, and a further 2. Losses recently have come against 2nd, 4th and 15th.
• Almeria have lost the 4 away matches they have played against top 7 and lost all 7 home and away v top 7. They tend to concede 3+ goals.
• Almeria have not had a draw in 9 away.
• Almeria have had only 1 0-0 at halftime away.

Profitable in play opportunities

• Match Odds - Almeria could score, but not hold on to any lead. Almeria have not had an away draw. Lay the draw late and low if there is a draw. 
• Halftime Score - lay 0-0 halftime score. It has occured only 1 home and once away with these 2.
• Correct Score - expect 2/3 goals at least from a firing Villareal and with both teams scoring potentially , it makes correct score tough. Normally I look to a team to win to nil .
• 
  

5pm - Antalyaspor v Galatasaray - 1.67 away
Standout stats

• This is 14th v 2nd. Galatasary are 8 points behind Fenerbahce at the top so need to win all remaining fixtures.
• www.soccerstats.com has this match as being played on 16th February 2014

5pm - Benfica v Maritimo - 1.24 home
Standout stats

• This is 2nd v 11th and with Sporting Lisbon winning yesterday, Benfica must win to leapfrog Sporting into 1st spot.
• Benfica's only loss of the season came in their opening match.
• Benfica have scored in all home matches, winning all bar 2 draws v 13th and 14th.
• benfica have scored in all matches this season.
• Benfica have 2 consecutive 2-0 wins, latterly v Porto which must surely be a shot in the arm for them.
• Benfica have scored 2+ goals in 8 of their last 9 matches.
• It was Maritimo who beat Benfica 2-1 on the opening day. Surely not again?
• Maritimo have only 4 wins this season, and they conceded in each win. 
• Maritimo have conceded in all matches this season.
• They have conceded 3 goals away to 1st and 3rd.
• Maritimo are undefeated in 6 matches, score drawing their last 4 matches.
• Maritimo have scored and conceded in their last 8 matches.

Profitable in play opportunities.

• MATCH ODDS - Lay any late draw. Surely Benfica are the kind of team to end Maritimo's run of 4 score draws. Benfica have scored 2 goals + in 8 of their last 9 matches, so speculate on backing Benfica if Maritimo take the lead.
• HALFTIME - there are no halftime stats for Portugal.
• CORRECT SCORE - this should not end 0-0. Benfica have scored in all this season, Maritimo have conceded in all this season. Note that Maritimo conceded 3 goals against 1st and 3rd away. IS that a template for today?
• OVER/UNDER 2.5 GOALS - Tricky as Benfica have won their last 2 matches 2-0, but as I say above, Maritimo have conceded 3 goals against 1st and 3rd away.
• 
  

5pm - Braga v Pacos Ferreira - 1.49 home
Standout stats

• This is 7th v 16th
• Braga have only had one draw this season
• Braga have won their last 3 home matches, and last 2 to nil.
• Braga have not had a 0-0 this season.
• Pacos have won only 2 matches this season.
• Pacos have only won 1 away match this season.
• Pacos have not beaten any of the top 11 home or away.
• They have conceded 2+ in all aways v 11th and above.

Profitable in play opportunities

• MATCH ODDS - Lay the draw late if there is a draw. Pacos should not win, so lay them if they are ahead . They have only 3 wins all season.
• OVER/UNDER 2.5 GOALS - Pacos could concede 2 goals again so that opens the doors to over 2.5 goals.

6pm - Levante v Barcelona - 1.2 away
Standout stats

• Real Madrid are now only 3 points away from Barcelona and Atl Madrid so it's a case of " over to you".
• This is 10th v 1st, and we now have 3 teams on 50 points but Barca and Atl Madrid have a game in hand. Must win therefore you feel.
• Levante have not had a draw in 8 matches, losing 6 of them.4 of those defeats came away.
• Levante clearly struggle against top 7 at home, they did lose 2-3 to Real Madrid but failed to score against 5th, 6th and 7th .
• Barcelona have lost only 1 match, but did draw their last match away to Atl Madrid which opened up the title race. 
• Will Barcelona really go 2 games without a win? It is a rare occurence.
• Barcelona are expected to score 2+ goals away today as they have done against teams near Levante in the league.
• Barcelona have scored 9 goals in the last 1/4 hour of 1st half away matches. Prime candidates for 0-0 halftime score lay after 30 minutes if it is still 0-0.
• No opponent has led at halftime in Barcelona away matches.
• Barcelona have had only 1 0-0 at halftime.

Profitable in play opportunities

• HALFTIME SCORE - Lay 0-0 halftime score as late as you can .
• MATCH ODDS - lay any late draw. It would be an anomoly were Barcelona to draw 2 consecutive matches. Levante scored 2 against Real Madrid in defeat, so if Levante score first, back Barcelona at enhanced odds.
• HALFTIME - if Levante score first in the first half, lay them in the Halftime market as Barcelona have not lost an away match at halftime.
• OVER/UNDER GOALS MARKETS. - if the match is 0-0 for an extended period, chance a back of over 3.5 goals at better odds than pre-match.

715pm - Porto v Setubal - 1.12 home
Standout stats

• Porto have only lost 2 matches this season, both away from home. 
• At home, Porto remain unbeaten.
• 1.12 odds suggests 3/4 goals minimum and a possible win to nil.
• Indeed Porto have won 5 home matches to nil.
• Porto have failed to score in 2 this season, and lost both. 
• Porto have not had a 0-0 this season.
• Setabul are inconsistent. They have beaten 4th and 5th away and drawn with 6th, but lost 4-0 away to 1st.
• Setabul have won only 1 of their last 6 away matches.
• Setabul have conceded 2 in their last 3 away matches.

Profitable in play opportunities

• MATCH ODDS - will Porto really lose a 2nd consecutive match? I don't think so, so if Setabul are leading, particularly late on, lay them.
• CORRECT SCORE - a potential win to nil if judged by Porto's 5 home clean sheets. With Setabul conceding 2 in each of their last 3 away matches, then 2-0 is a good starting point.
• HALFTIME - no stats available.

745pm - AC Milan v Verona - 1.48 home

8pm - Atl Madrid v Sevilla - 1.37 home

8pm - Paris St-G v Nantes - 1.26 home

Standout stats

• this is 1st v 6th. 
• PSG have lost only one match this season. That was away to Evian as I covered this in a live chat.
• Of top 8 sides, PSG have only played 2nd and 3rd, drawing both. 
• PSG have beaten Nantes 1-2 away this season. In all matches home and away v top 6, they have scored and conceded.
• Against top 15 sides, home and away, PSG have only failed to score 2 goals or more in 1 match.
• In fact, in 12 of their last 13 matches, PSG have scored 2+ goals.
• PSG have scored in all home matches.
• PSG have not had a 0-0 this season, and had only 1 0-0 at halftime at home.
• Nantes have had only 2 draws this season.
• Away from home, Nantes kept clean sheets against 5th, 7th and 8th, but lost 2-0 to 4th.
• Nantes have been tight against top 4, 1-2 home loss to PSG, 2 0-1 losses at home to 2nd and 3rd and a 2-0 away defeat to 4th.
• Nantes have had 8 0-0's at halftime this season.

Profitable in play opportunities

• CORRECT SCORE - PSG are expected to score 2 goals minimum today so base any correct scores around that.
• MATCH ODDS - lay Nantes if Nantes score first . They did score in the home 1-2 loss to PSG.  PSG have scored in all home matches this season and scored 2+ goals in 12 of their last 13 matches.
• OVER/UNDER 2.5 GOALS - looks like it will come in if PSG continue to score 2 goals minimum.
• HALFTIME SCORE - PSG have only had 1 0-0 at halftime at home, but Nantes have had 8 in total. Faith in Ibra and Cavani to conjure a first half goal? Lay the 0-0 very late at low odds if you think this.