Rangers kept yet another clean sheet away from home for another win to nil, and potential wins to nil are ideal for correct score punting as it immediately narrows the range of correct scores for us to choose form. For instance, I think we can safely scratch anything 6-0 and above, as well as 0-0, leaving us a 1 in 5 chance of selecting the right scoreline.
It was so near to a 9th 0-0 at halftime for Everton but for a 41st minute goal. Twas not to be. There were no real DRTs here as everton scored first ( and another team whose odds I thought were massive, scored first.
West Brom under new management were difficult to read, and got back into the match to finish it 1-1.
All in all, only 3 matches but good accurate research.
4pm - Iceland v Sweden - 1.79 away
A mere mention here. I am not sure how strong the Swedish team will be ( Ibrahimovic et al) as we are in mid flow in the European leagues, so international friendlies will be less than appealing for club managers. This is a friendly so will not be researched. Just bear in mind the odds on away team should Iceland lead, say, 2-0.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Another mention for a 630pm match between Duisburg and Dortmund as the latter wind up for a return to competitive Bundesliga action. The market is illiquid which is why I have not posted a price. Expect a good showing from the away side in this friendly, and the possibility for goals.
Dortmund have won 3 January friendlies 2-0, 1-2, 1-3 so are scoring 2+ goals regularly
They play a Bundesliga 3 side today and really should score 4+ goals if playing anywhere near their optimum.
4 days time sees a return of the Bundesliga for Dortmund so I would expect to see as near a first team as the manager can risk, and the possibility of a confidence-boosting mauling of a clearly weaker opponent.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
745pm - Partick v St Johnstone - 2.58 away
Standout stats
- This is an SPL match and one I would not normally research. As the match is featured at www.soccerstats.com and in a quiet day, I will take a look at it.
- This is a replay of a match played on 14th December, abandoned due to a water-logged pitch.
- There is only 1 Premiership head to head of relevance, and that is a 1-1 which saw Partick Thistle score first.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
745pm - Roda JC v AZ Alkmaar - 2.32 away
Standout stats
- This is a rather unappealing Dutch cup match between 2 Eredivisie teams.
- Roda are unbeaten at home in the last 2 head to heads 2-0 and 2-2. The last 2 head to heads have seen 2-2 draws.On both occasions AZ led 2-1 in those matches.
- We are only 1 match into a return to league action from the winter break so it's tough to gauge the "health" of the sides.Let's crack on with the cup form then. Are the teams "up for the cup?"
- Roda have scored and conceded in 6 of their last 7 cup matches. They have won their last 3 1-2, 1-3 and 3-1.
- The last 3 losses in the cup came at the hands of PSV ( twice) and Ajax. Indeed Roda did beat PSV 1-3 recently.
- Roda's only 3 90 minute defeats in the cup at home came via PSV and Ajax as mentioned above, and with AZ not firing as they normally do, AZ's 2.32 looks layable from the off?
- AZ are "up for the cup", having not lost a 90 minute cup match in 14 ( Since 22nd September 2011).
- 2 of AZ's last 3 matches have gone to extra time.
- AZ have won 5 consecutive away cup matches, beating Ajax twice as well and scored 3+ in all of those 5 wins.
Profitable in play opportunities
- A low key trading match. Based on collateral form through Ajax who beat Roda at home, AZ have the advantage here having beaten Ajax twice in the cup away from home recently.
- AZ are clearly up for the cup too so maybe that lay of AZ at 2.32 I mentioned earlier is misplaced.
- Too close to call this one as we have a home side only losing to PSV and Ajax at home, against an away side without a defeat in 90 minutes in 14 cup matches. Therefore a neutral goals bet might be the call.
- Do note that AZ have had the lead in the last 2 head to heads . Use that as you will.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
745pm - Roma v Juventus - 2.62 home
Standout stats
745pm - West Ham v Man City - 1.41 away'Standout stats
- the recent league encounter saw an easy 3 goal win for Juventus, who are clearly dominant and high goalscoring in head to heads.
- Head to heads at Roma are a lot tighter than at Juventus. 1-1 and 1-0 the last 2 at Roma in Roma's favour.
- Roma have kept 3 home clean sheets in 3 wins since losing to Juventus in the league.
- Roma's last 2 Coppa Italia matches have been tight with a 0-1 loss and a 1-0 win against Sampdoria ( reflective of head to heads at home to Juventus!)
- Roma have won 17 of their last 19 home cup matches. Their only 2 defeats were 0-1 v Inter in 2011 and Lazio in May 2013.
- For a team, such as Juventus, who have won their last 13 matches against Italian opponents, how important is it psychologically to maintain a winning run.
- Since 2012 in the Coppa Italia, only Napoli and Lazio have beaten Juventus, needing to score 2 goals to do so,
- Juventus have won only 1 of their last 7 cup matches in 90 minutes, suggesting they are a little less inspired by cup success.
- Juventus away from home in the cup have a terrible record, they have lost 4, drawn 1 and won 1 of their last 6 away matches.
- Juventus have scored and conceded in their last 9 matches away in the cup.
Profitable in play opportunities
- The suggestion is that Roma will need 2 goals to beat Juventus, but Roma have not shown a capacity to score 2 goals.
- juventus's away form is poor and backs up the need for Roma to score 2, as does it suggest that both teams will score today.
- Roma are extremely strong at home in the cup, only going down 0-1 in 2 of their last 19 matches.
- It's a toughie to call with all sorts of permutations.
- Can I just remind you that just because I take the time to research a match, it does not mean that the match is suitable!
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Standout stats
- As this is the 2nd leg of the League Cup, research seems irrelevant.
- Suffice to say that Man City lead 0-6 from the first leg . In this context then, they can tolerate a 5-0 defeat and still go through.
- Team news will be key too. Will Pelligrini allow an opportunity to blood some of the fringe players , knowing that he can call on a strong bench were West Ham to make it 6-0 with 5 minutes to go?
- It is such a difficult match to get an angle into and one I will readily avoid.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
8pm - Espanyol v Real Madrid - 1.28 away
Standout stats
- This is the first of 2 legs one week apart in the Copa del rey. A recent meeting between these 2 resulted in a laboured 0-1 win for Real Madrid with a 55th minute Pepe goal. This suggests an ability to have kept the established Real Madrid front line very quiet for the duration of the match, if someone like Pepe is the only player to break the deadlock from a set piece.
- Judging by the lesser teams Espanyol beat in the Copa del rey, it would seem that this competition is not one they prioritise. Sevilla were the last Primera division team to have met Espanyol in the Cup and to have beaten them twice , scoring 3 on each occasion.
- That 0-3 Sevilla defeat was the only home copa defeat for Espanyol in 13 matches.
- Real Madrid have now kept 11 clean sheets in 13 matches so we might have a correct score win to nil match on.
- Real Madrid have kept 4 consecutive away clean sheets in all competitions,
- Since 13th January 2011, Real Madrid have only lost 2 Copa del rey matches in 90 minutes.
- Real have kept 4 clean sheets and have a current run of 3 2-0 scorelines.
Profitable in play opportunities
- Another toughie to decipher as it is a first leg match, and consequently only the "first half". There will be no major panic were Real to lose 1-0, say, with the 2nd leg at the Bernabau.
- Will Espanyol play their ultra defensive set up again.? It was only scuppered by a corner headed goal in the 2nd half. So if you think that is the case, a 0-0 pre match back to lay is great option and readily tradable at halftime if we are lucky enough to see another 0-0. This might be helped by Real Madrid's defensive clean sheet solidity in recent matches.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
8pm - Marseille v Nice - 1.54 home
Standout stats
- This is yet another cup match and a local derby of sorts.
- The 2013 head to heads have gone 1-0 to each side
- Since 2012 in the Coupe de france , only PSG have beaten Marseille in 90 minutes. 4 of the last 7 coupe de france matches have gone to extra time which might bring the draw in to play, although the 1.54 odds suggest otherwise.
- 4 of Marseille's last 5 coupe de france home matches have gone to extra time.
- Marseille are unbeaten in 90 minutes in their last 8 home Coupe de france matches.
- 3 of Nice's last 4 coupe de france matches have gone to extra time.
Profitable in play opportunities
- I don't know why Marseille's odds are so short. Perhaps lay Marseille if Marseille score first. Both sides tend to favour extra time, and hence a draw in 90 minutes.
- My knowledge of the Coupe de France is minimal so I do not know the back story behind such a short price for Marseille.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
No comments:
Post a Comment