25th march 2014

Almeria was so nearly the score draw I mentioned were it not for a 90th minute Almeria winner. CSKA were totally dominant . Zenit just won thanks to their opponents missing 2 penalties. Zenit's goals? A penalty and an own goal. Says it all really
Fenerbahce scored again and over 2.5 goals came in.

430pm - G Furth v Fortuna Dusseldorf - 1.75 home

630pm - Galatasaray v Bursaspor - 1.42 home
Standout stats

• this is a turkish cup match so all depends on these teams' attitudes to this competition
• Galatasary have won the last 3 home league matches with Bursaspor
• it seems this is a 2 legged affair. I seem to remembering the Turkish cup being a league format so it may not be 2 legged

Galatasary

• have not won in 3 matches
• failed to score in last 3
• lost their last home match 0-1. Will they really tolerate a 2nd home defeat, regardless of competition?
• that was one of 2 defeats at home since the end of March 2013. The only other team to win was Real madrid
• clean sheets in the last 3 cup matches see 3-0, 3-0, 0-0
• only 2 home defeats in the cup since 2004 came in 2012.
• 5 match unbeaten run at home 2013/2014

Bursaspor

• 4 defeats in 6 in all competitions
• only 1 win in their last 9 aways was a 1-2 v Sivasspor in the Cup
• only 1 defeat in 8 in the cup, but as with galatasary , early round opponents probably easy pickings
• only 2 wins in 7 aways in the cup, both 1-2

Profitable in-play opportunities

• not the most appealing of matches. It's a case of faith in galatasary and their team. Note they lost their last home match and that might galvanise them to at least not lose today
• Galatasary are solid at home so favour them today if Bursaspor score first

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7pm - Braunschweig v Mainz - 2.2 away
Standout stats

• only 1 recent relevant head to head was a 2-0 home win for Mainz earlier this season
• this is 18th v 7th and Braun are increasingly adrift at the bottom

Braunschweig ( Braun for short)

• only 4 wins all season so statistically are unlikely to win
• are certainly battling for it at home. WLWDD ( W=Win, L=Loss, D=Draw) That loss was against Dortmund
• 3 score draws in 4 matches - tough to beat without winning?
• have scored and conceded in 7 of their last 8 matches
• only 5 clean sheets all season
• 3 of 4 wins all season came at home. Not bad against top 6, losses v 2nd and 3rd, win v 4th and score draws v 5th and 6th ( playing 7th today),
• Notice they scored and conceded at home to top 6
• 4 0-0's at halftime at home ( 30%)

Mainz

• much like the CSKA Moscow match, Mainz look obviously the better side so why only 2.2?
• only 2 defeats in 12 matches
• 4 wins and a 0-0 in their last 5 away matches
• 6 0-0's at halftime in their last 7 matches
• have failed to score in 4 matches only
• against 13th and below, we have 4 wins and a 1-1 draw away. Note both teams scored.
• against 8th and below away, Mainz have scored and conceded
• 77% over 2.5 goals away
• 4 0-0's at halftime away
• have conceded 19 of 25 goals away in the 2nd half

Profitable in-play opportunities

• Form wise, Mainz are favoured here, so why the big price? They have won 4 of their last 5 aways, are unbeaten v 13th and below, and have only lost 2 in 12 matches. Strange!
• Maybe because Braun are battling for it, 3 score draws in 4 matches only lost one of last 5 at home ( Dortmund)
• Note there's a strong trend in both sides for scoring and conceding which may add to the 77% over 2.5 goals for Mainz away

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7pm - Dortmund v Schalke - 1.56 home
Standout stats

• this is how it works. If they have a Champions League match coming up, Dortmund tend to lose the preceeding league match. It's happened the last 4 occasions. Otherwise it tends to be business as usual
• both sides have scored in the last 4 head to heads with wins shared equally

Dortmund

• this is 2nd v 3rd and 1 point separates these 2. So the odds may be a little too short for Dortmund?
• only 2 defeats in 9 came before Champions League matches
• 4 clean sheets in their last 6 matches
• only 2 wins in 7 home matches and lost their last home match. Dortmund have lost 2 consecutive home matches as recently as December 2013
• have failed to score in only 4 matches
• 13 over 2.5 goals in their last 15 matches
• Perhaps markedly, all Dortmund home wins have come v 11th and lower. And they're 1.56 , why?
• 77% over 2.5 goals at home
• 4 0-0's at halftime at home
• no 0-0 this season
• have scored 21 of their 32 home goals in the 2nd half.

Schalke

• only 3 defeats in 20 matches came v Dortmund, Mgladbach and Bayern Munich
• have only failed to score in 4 matches this season
• more vulnerable away from home, losing v 1st, 5th, 6th and 11th
• 77% over 2.5 goals
• 2 0-0's at halftime away
• only 2 0-0's 

Profitable in-play opportunities

• a tough match to weigh up. Dortmund only win at home v 11th and lower but they beat Schalke as only one of 3 Schalke defeats in 20 matches.
• 77% over 2.5 goals both sides might be the best neutral angle in 
• both sides have only failed to score in 4 matches 

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7pm - Hertha Berlin v B Munich - 1.21 away
Standout stats

• 5 consecutive Bayern wins in head to heads 
• 5-3-7-4-4-6-5 total goals in recent head to heads
• 9th v 1st and complacency for a Bayern side 23 points clear at the top?

Hertha

• only 2 wins in 9 matches
• have failed to score in 3 of their last 4 matches
• 3 0-0's at halftime in their last 4 matches
• mixed bag at home, but have lost to 3rd and 4th without scoring.
• a 3-2 with Bayern at Bayern might see some fight today?
• 5 0-0's at halftime at home

Bayern Munich

• all wins bar 2 1-1 draws
• 18 consecutive wins
• scored in all matches
• 10 clean sheets in the last 15 matches
• only 2 0-0's at halftime away
• have scored 23 of their 37 goals away in the 2nd half

Profitable in-play opportunities

• all about Bayern Munich. There is nothing in Hertha, bar a 3-2 loss at Bayern last time these 2 met, to suggest any shocks
• Complacency us Bayern's enemy

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7pm - W Bremen v Wolfsburg - 2.32 away

Standout stats

• Wolfsburg have won the last 2 head to heads 3-0
• this is 13th v 6th

W Bremen

• only 1 loss in 6 matches
• only 1 loss in 6 home matches was against Dortmund
• have failed to score in only 7 matches
• have kept 3 clean sheets in their last 5 matches
• only 1 win at home v top 7 was a 1-0 v Leverkusen
• 4 0-0's at halftime at home ( 40%)

Wolfsburg

• only 4 defeats in 18 matches
• have scored and conceded in 14 of their last 16 matches
• have scored in the last 18 matches
• only 5 clean sheets this season
• all losses away have come v 11th and higher. Playing 13th today
• 3 0-0's at halftime away
• no 0-0 this season

Profitable in-play opportunities

• the key stat is Wolfsburg scoring in their last 18 matches and scoring and conceding in 14 of their last 16 matches
• Bremen are in decent very recent form but then Wolfsburg have only lost 4 of 18

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745pm - Arsenal v Swansea - 1.55 home

Standout stats

• 0-2 and 1-2 for Arsenal in the last 2 head to heads. How they'd take a customary 2-0 today
• this is 4th v 15th
• Man City have 2 games in hand so the advantage is theirs. Arsenal have a game in hand over Chelsea so must make it count otherwise you feel the title effort this season is over

Arsenal

• only 6 defeats this season
• only 2 wins in their last 6 matches includes 50% of their season's defeats
• have failed to score in only 5 matches but in 3 of their last 5 matches
• only 1 defeat at home and fairly comfortable winning v 12th and lower , scoring 2+
• 6 2-0 scorelines at home
• 6 0-0's at home at halftime
• have only conceded 2 goals in the first hour of home matches
• have scored first in 12 of 14 home matches

Swansea

• only 2 wins in 16 matches, both came at home
• have conceded 4 and 3 in the last 2 away matches v Everton and Liverpool
• have failed to score in 8 matches only
• have scored and conceded in their last 5 matches
• have not beaten any side above them away from home and only won 1 of 21 matches played home and away v teams above them
• have conceded in the last 12 aways
• 4 0-0's away at halftime ( 26%)

Profitable in-play opportunities

• it looks damning. Swansea have only 1 win in 21 matches played home and away v teams above them
• a case of the "must wins" paid off for Barcelona at the weekend and this is a must win for arsenal
• Arsenal are likely to score first, but if they don't I think Swansea could be as vulnerable as they were against Liverpool when they kept scoring but getting pegged back.

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745pm - Hamilton v Raith - 1.57 home  Just for the record really. Note this match and time incase Raith score first. I personally will only do research if Raith lead

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745pm - Leicester v Yeovil - 1.3 home  It's only really QPR which interests me in this league. Live chatters know though that it can pay to keep an eye on these ultra short priced teams, particularly at home, incase the away team scores first. I think Leicester were short priced last time, conceded, and went on to win, all without me needing to do pre-match research

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745pm - Man Utd v Man City - 2.24 away  I will not research this match as it is a derby , a "one off" , a "best on the night" match and a statistical angle in might not work. I have mentioned before though that Manchester United's stats profile this season is one of a mid table team comfortable winning against teams below them, but struggling, and oftentimes losing, against teams above them. I will not get over-excited with the 3-0 win against Olympiakos. They were lucky to be in that deep into the Champions League. The win over West Ham was hardly a surprise either.

Man Utd have won all bar one match this season against 10th and lower. . They failed to score at home to 1st and 2nd

Manchester City are definitely more vulnerable away from home which might help Moyes,. as will a Van Persie hatrick and Rooney brace.

Not a match I can predict and one to watch and gauge in-play I think

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745pm - Newcastle v Everton - 2.26 away - almost the same price as Manchester City!

Standout stats

• both teams have scored in the last 6 meetings
• Everton have won 3 and a 2-2 draw in the last 4 head to heads
• this is 8th v 6th

Newcastle

• only 4 draws all season so statistically more likely NOT to draw, than draw
• 3 wins in their last 4 matches albeit v Villa, Hull and Crystal palace. Everton are a level above.
• 2 1-0 wins now at home
• 3 0-0's at halftime in their last 4 matches
• Newcastle beat Chelsea at home, drew 2-2 with Liverpool, but lost to 3rd, 4th and 5th without scoring.
• no draw in 7 at home
• 6 0-0's at halftime at home ( 40% of matches)

Everton

• 3 consecutive wins , all at home though
• have lost their last 3 away matches, the last 1 1-0 v Tottenham and Chelsea
• only 2 clean sheets in 14 matches
• 4 0-0's at halftime in their last 5 matches
• only 3 defeats away came v top 5 sides
• no win in 5 away matches and have conceded in their last 7 away matches
• 10 0-0's at halftime away ( 71%)
• have scored 12 of their 14 away goals in the last 1/2 hour of matches

Profitable in-play opportunities

• can we safely avoid the draw in this match? Newcastle tend away from them? 
• both sides are in good recent form with receny wins
• both sides have had consecutive 0-0's at halftime  so don't be surprised if it's 0-0 at halftime
• Watch out for late goals away from Everton  - 60th+ minute

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745pm - Nottm Forest v Charlton - 1.86 home . Just a match to note here as we have an odds on favourite. I don't like the Championship, bar a focus on QPR this season. Do note if Charlton lead 0-2 for example.

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745pm - QPR v Wigan  -2.46 home

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745pm - Roma v Torino  - 1.41 home
Standout stats

• both teams have scored in 3 of the last 4 meetings. 1-2 (Roma) and 1-1 last 2 meetings
• 2nd v 10th. You feel the title is away from Roma, but 2nd place is still alive, with a match in hand and 6 points v napoli

Roma

• Roma have only 2 defeats all season both away from home
• they have only failed to score in 5 matches all season
• have kept 7 clean sheets in their last 10 matches
• wins to nil against 7th, 8th, 11th and 12th ( scoring 2+ ) augurs well v 10th today
• 5 0-0's at halftime at home ( 35%)
• 2 0-0's at home
• have only conceded 4 goals at home, including just 1 in the first half, and scored 33 in total

Torino

• 4 defeats in their last 5 matches, 3 were 1-0's v 1st, 3rd and 6th so Roma might have a tough time of it today
• have lost away to 1st, 3rd, 5th and 6th 
• have conceded in their last 8 matches
• only 2 0-0's at halftime away
• no away 0-0's
• have scored first in only 7 of 14 away matches

Profitable in-play opportunities

• an inability to score in 4 recent defeats proved costly for Torino, as 3 of those defeats were 1-0 and against top 6 sides. Roma might take a while to breakthrough , if they do, today.
• Roma seem to have the measure of teams around Torino's position in the league, so at their best Roma should score 2+ goals and possibly win to nil. They have only conceded 4 goals at home this season

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745pm - Wolves v Colchester - 1.35 home - another match for you to select on futbol24.com and monitor incase Colchester score first or it's a concerted 0-0. I won't research this league. We can just remain away that Wolves are at home and are very short priced. Anything other than a home win can be exploited in-play.

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8pm - Reading v Barnsley - 1.57 home - as above another match to monitor in-play. Reading are short priced and expecting an easy time, so anything else should be explored in-play.

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9pm - Elche v Ath Bilbao - 1.95 away
Standout stats

• 2-2 in head to heads most recently saw Elche 0-2 up
• this is 15th v 4th. No threat of 3rd place for Bilbao Elche are 2 points from relegation so expect them to be fully committed

Elche

• only 3 wins in 15 were at home, to nil, and the last 2 were 1-0
• 3 0-0's at halftime in their last 4 matches
• no wins at home v top 7 this season with 2 1-1 draws v 5th and 6th
• no defeat in 6 at home and have not conceded in 5 at home
• 20% over 2.5 goals at home is eyecatchingly small %
• 10 0-0's at halftime at home is 67% of home matches - back 0-0 pre match to trade?
• have conceded 8 of 11 home goals in the last 1/2 hour 

Ath Bilbao

• only 3 defeats in 22 matches
• only one loss in 11 matches
• unbeaten in 5 away matches with 2 consecutive 1-1's
• have failed to score in only 4 matches this season
• Ath Bilbao have not beaten any team 12th and higher away from home but beat all 5 teams they have played 13th and below including the bottom 4 ( playing bottom 5th today)
• 3 0-0's at halftime away
• only 1 0-0 this season
• have scored 7 of their 18 away goals in the last 1/4 hour

Profitable in-play opportunities

• Elche are trying - unbeaten in 6 at home and 5 consecutive clean sheets at home
• a whopping 67% of their home matches are 0-0 at halftime -is that enough for a 0-0 pre-match back to lay?
• Watch out for late action as 8 of Elche's conceded goals at home came in the last 1/2 hour, and Bilbao have scored 7 of their 18 away goals in the last 1/4 hour
• Ath Bilbao are clearly the form side and have little trouble beating the bottom 4 to assume they can cope with the 5th bottom side today?
• Watch out for that Elche fight though - 5 consecutive clean sheets at home cannot be sniffed at.